The National Association of Royalty Owners commissioned this report prepared by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, a leading international petroleum engineering firm, that estimates the future cash flows related to expected horizontal well results in the Wattenberg Field in Boulder County. The results show that Boulder County could be on the hook for over $1 billion from successful takings claims, or just compensation for the public use of private property, such as a ban on developing minerals in the Wattenberg Field.
The National Association of Royalty Owners commissioned this report prepared by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, a leading international petroleum engineering firm, that estimates the future cash flows related to expected horizontal well results in the Wattenberg Field in Boulder County. The results show that Boulder County could be on the hook for over $1 billion from successful takings claims, or just compensation for the public use of private property, such as a ban on developing minerals in the Wattenberg Field.
The National Association of Royalty Owners commissioned this report prepared by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, a leading international petroleum engineering firm, that estimates the future cash flows related to expected horizontal well results in the Wattenberg Field in Boulder County. The results show that Boulder County could be on the hook for over $1 billion from successful takings claims, or just compensation for the public use of private property, such as a ban on developing minerals in the Wattenberg Field.
National Association of Royalty Owners Rockies Chapter 23851 County Road 61 Elbert, Colorado 80106
Dear Ms. Smith:
In accordance with your request, we have estimated future summary cash flows, both undiscounted and discounted at an annual rate of 10 percent, related to expected horizontal well results in the Boulder County, Colorado, area of Wattenberg Field, from both a working and royalty interest ownership position. The horizontal well ownership incorporated in the estimates include: (1) 100 percent working interest with 87.5 percent revenue interest, (2) 12.5 percent ( 1 / 8 ) royalty interest, (3) 100 percent working interest with 80.0 percent revenue interest, and (4) 20.0 percent ( 1 / 5 ) royalty interest. The estimates summarized in this letter cover a range of expected total oil and gas recoveries from undeveloped horizontal well locations in the Codell and Niobrara formations that are assumed to be section length with 4,000 feet of completed horizontal lateral. Horizontal well development demonstrated in Wattenberg Field has ranged from 8 wells per section (80-acre spacing) to 16 wells per section (40-acre spacing). Summary cash flow estimates shown below are for single well estimates and groups of 8 wells and 16 wells in order to see the cash flow potential for full section development. These estimates have been prepared using constant price and cost parameters, as discussed in subsequent paragraphs of this letter. The future cash flow, undiscounted and discounted, associated with each ownership position for the range of expected per-well recoveries are:
Total Per-Well Cash Flow Estimates for a Working Interest of 100% and Revenue Interest of 87.5% (M$) Recovery Single Well 8 Wells 16 Wells (MBOE) Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10%
Total Per-Well Cash Flow Estimates for a Royalty Interest of 12.5% (M$) Recovery Single Well 8 Wells 16 Wells (MBOE) Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10%
Total Per-Well Cash Flow Estimates for a Working Interest of 100% and Revenue Interest of 80.0% (M$) Recovery Single Well 8 Wells 16 Wells (MBOE) Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10%
Total Per-Well Cash Flow Estimates for a Royalty Interest of 20.0% (M$) Recovery Single Well 8 Wells 16 Wells (MBOE) Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10% Undiscounted Disc. at 10%
Total per-well recoveries are expressed as thousands of barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE), determined using a ratio of 6 thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil.
Cash flow is after deductions of our estimates of the owner's share of production taxes, ad valorem taxes, capital costs, and operating expenses but before consideration of any income taxes. The cash flow has been discounted at an annual rate of 10 percent, which is shown to indicate the effect of time on the value of money. Cash flow presented in this report, whether discounted or undiscounted, should not be construed as being the fair market value.
As requested, prices used in this report are based on the 12-month unweighted arithmetic average of the first- day-of-the-month price for each month in the period January through December 2013. For oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes, the average West Texas Intermediate posted price of $96.94 per barrel is adjusted by field for quality, transportation fees, and regional price differentials. For gas volumes, the average Henry Hub spot price of $3.670 per MMBTU is adjusted by field for energy content, transportation fees, and regional price differentials. All prices are held constant throughout the lives of the properties. Our estimates include a gas shrinkage factor of 0.749, a gas-oil ratio of 8,300 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil, and a NGL yield of 50.1 barrels of NGL per million cubic feet of gas. The average adjusted product prices are $87.91 per barrel of oil, $39.34 per barrel of NGL, and $3.791 per MCF of gas.
Operating costs used in the estimates are $5,170 per month and are based on our understanding of operating costs in the area. As requested, operating costs are not escalated for inflation. The capital cost used in the estimates for the section-length horizontal wells with 4,000 feet of completed lateral length is $4.7 million, and are based on actual costs from recent activity. Capital costs are not escalated for inflation. As requested, our estimates do not include any salvage value for the lease and well equipment or the cost of abandoning the properties.
The values shown in this letter are estimates only and should not be construed as exact quantities. Estimates of total oil and gas recovery may increase or decrease as a result of market conditions, future operations, changes in regulations, or actual reservoir performance. In addition to the primary economic assumptions discussed herein, our estimates are based on certain assumptions including, but not limited to, that the wells will be operated in a prudent manner, that no governmental regulations or controls will be put in place that would impact the ability of the interest owner to recover the estimated volumes, and that our projections of future production will
prove consistent with actual performance. If the volumes are recovered, the cash flows therefrom and the costs related thereto could be more or less than the estimated amounts. Because of governmental policies and uncertainties of supply and demand, the sales rates, prices received for the volumes, and costs incurred in recovering such volumes may vary from assumptions made while preparing these estimates.
For the purposes of these estimates, we used technical and economic data including, but not limited to, geologic and production maps, analogous historical price and cost information, and property ownership interests. The volumes in this letter have been estimated using deterministic methods; these estimates have been prepared in accordance with generally accepted petroleum engineering and evaluation principles set forth in the Standards Pertaining to the Estimating and Auditing of Oil and Gas Reserves Information promulgated by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE Standards). We used standard engineering and geoscience methods that we considered to be appropriate and necessary in accordance with the 2007 Petroleum Resources Management System definitions and guidelines. As in all aspects of oil and gas evaluation, there are uncertainties inherent in the interpretation of engineering and geoscience data; therefore, our conclusions necessarily represent only informed professional judgment.
The data used in our estimates were obtained from National Association of Royalty Owners, various operators, public data sources, and the nonconfidential files of Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. and were accepted as accurate. Supporting work data are on file in our office. The technical persons responsible for preparing the estimates presented herein meet the requirements regarding qualifications, independence, objectivity, and confidentiality set forth in the SPE Standards. We are independent petroleum engineers, geologists, geophysicists, and petrophysicists and are not employed on a contingent basis.
Sincerely,
NETHERLAND, SEWELL & ASSOCIATES, INC. Texas Registered Engineering Firm F-2699
/s/ C.H. (Scott) Rees III By: C.H. (Scott) Rees III, P.E. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
/s/ Randolph K. Green By: Randolph K. Green, P.E. 72951 Vice President
Date Signed: June 3, 2014
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