COMMENTARY

Economic & Political Weekly EPW january 25, 2014 vol xlix no 4
19
levels of distribution investment have
gone missing since independence.
The distribution sub-sector that, today,
needs the maximum attention is totally
unable to support such investments. A few
states have made such investments despite
their scal pressures but even they need
to do more. However, they are unable to
generate the required surpluses. The tariff
increases and efciency gains at the state
utilities primarily guarantee the protected
returns of bloated CPSUs and the private
sector both of whom have gradually raised
their stake in the sector and are, today,
the dominant force because of being
rewarded selectively with the highest
regulated returns in the world. All this is at
the cost of the state utilities charged with
the primary res ponsibility for servicing
end users of electricity but progressively
rendered unable to do so because of a
misguided policy and regulatory regime.
All of the above is further compound-
ed by the poor governance that aficts
both the central and the state public
sector units engaged in the power sector
with the state-owned units being rela-
tively worse. Poor vision, poor planning
and procurement practices, high degree
of political interference in all commercial
decisions and human resource manage-
ment, and, above all, the lucrative arbi-
trage offered by a tariff regime that ranges
from free power to power priced at rates
not charged anywhere else in the world
has led to a grossly inefcient and dis-
torted sector wherein available data is
completely unreliable and doctored to
obfuscate massive corruption, poor pro-
ductivity and a culture of mediocrity.
In Conclusion
I have primarily highlighted the power
sector issues here within the context of the
proposed nancial restructuring of the
dues of the state discoms and the broader
concerns of scal stability both at the
centre and the state levels. The distortions
in the oil and gas sector and the coal sector
are no less potent in threatening Indias
scal stability and undermine our attempts
to provide even basic levels of energy ac-
cess to our people. A fact that might come
as a surprise to our elitist planners, but
best reects our loss of touch with the
reality of India, is that traditional bio-
mass together with the animal and hu-
man draught energy constitutes the sin-
gle largest source of energy in India by
far. We put out an erroneous guestimate
of how much traditional biomass we use
as a nation year after year in our Plan
documents and we are blissfully igno-
rant about the extent of animal and hu-
man draught energy that powers the
worlds third or fourth largest economy.
Those who tell us that nuclear energy is
the answer to Indias energy woes are
simply fooling themselves and the peo-
ple of this country. I can safely say that
at least till 2050 and possibly till even
later, that is not even remotely likely.
The Indian electricity and energy
sectors are simply unsustainable in their
current form. Schemes that tinker around
the edges while preserving the current
policy and regulatory superstructure pro-
vide limited policy space. Fiscal stability
and our promise of basic energy access
to our people demands a more compre-
hensive and a more serious rethink. The
rst step in that direction is to get rid of
the vested interests that are advising the
government on key policy initiatives.
These are the same people who have
brought us to the current abyss. They ben-
et from preserving the status quo. The
honorable young and articulate power
minister and the Fourteenth Finance
Commission will do well to take note.
Climate Change in Himachal
Evidence from Kullu Region
Mohit Kapoor, Abdul Shaban
Temperatures are rising in Kullu
in Himachal Pradesh where
farmers are dependent on the
rains for agriculture. This article
uses meteorological data to
provide evidence of gradual
climate change in the region that
might affect livelihoods.
A
number of studies provide evi-
dence of changes in local climate
and the effects these changes have
on people and economies across the
world. Studies on the Himalayan region
(Ranbir et al 2009) and perception of
people in these regions also show a
change in climatic variables (Vedwan
and Rohodes 2001). It has been observed
that a change in climatic variables in
various parts of the Himalayan belt has
affected agricultural activities in the
region as well as livelihoods. An attempt
has been made in this article to look into
the local-level climate change by analys-
ing climatic variables in the Kullu district
of Himachal Pradesh, a small district in
the western Himalayan region. The dis-
trict is situated between 31
0
20-32
0
25 N
latitude and 76
0
56-77
0
52 E longitude
and topographically is rugged mountain
and a transitional zone between the Lower
and Greater Himalayas. The altitude of
the district varies between 1,000m and
6,000m. The general climate of Kullu is
cold, dry with average rainfall around
800 mm. It receives its major rainfall
from July to September.
Kullu is one of the most rural districts
of India as about 90% of the population
of the district lives in villages (Census of
India 2011) and more than 75% of the
population depends on primary activities
and the majority of farmers are marginal
farmers. Only 6% to 7% of the total culti-
vable area is under irrigation (Govern-
ment of Himachal Pradesh 2012). Thus
any change in climate can affect the
economy as people largely depend on
nature for their livelihood.
Mohit Kapoor (kapoormohit4@gmail.com) is at
the School of Development Studies, Tata Institute
of Social Sciences, Mumbai. Abdul Shaban is
with the School of Development Studies, Tata
Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai.
COMMENTARY
january 25, 2014 vol xlix no 4 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
20
Kullu district is divided into two
zones (zone 1 and 2) on the basis of
climatic data available at two research
stations situated at different heights.
Climatic data used in this article have
been collected from the Indian Agricul-
tural Research Institute, Regional Station,
Kullu (IARI, Katrain) and from the Hill
Agricultural Research and Extension
Centre, Kullu (HAREC, Bajaura). The data
relate to the period from 1970 to 2010.
Data prior to 1970 are not available and
also for some climatic variables data for
the whole p eriod 1970-2010 are not
available. The period to which the data
relate to are mentioned in tables against
the respective climate variables. Simple
regression analysis has been carried to
nd out if the variables show a trend. To
save space only statistically signicant
results have been reported.
Climatic Conditions
There is considerable climatic variation
between the two zones (based on aver-
age altitude from mean sea level) of
the district. The average mean maximum
monthly temperature in zone 1 ranges
from 15.6
o
C (standard deviation ()= 1.6)
in January to 32.9
o
C ( =2.1) in June,
while in zone 2 the average mean maxi-
mum monthly temperature ranges be-
tween 10.9
o
C ( = 1.6) in January and
27.1
o
C ( = 2.8) in June (Table 1). The low-
est average mean minimum tempera-
ture is in December in zone 1 (0.8
o
C with
= 1.4) while the coldest month in zone
2 is January (1.8
o
C, = 1.7). It is note-
worthy that despite at higher altitude,
the coldest month in zone 2 remains
warmer than the coldest month of zone 1.
Both the zones have higher relative
humidity throughout the year. Both
the zones have highest rainfall in July.
The average total rainfall in July in
zone 1 is 141.0 mm while in zone 2 it is
170.1 mm. The dispersion in July rain-
fall in both the zones is found very high:
= 82.8 in zone 1 and = 89.2 in zone 2.
The dispersion in average total annual
rainfall is also found very high in both
zones during the reference period. The
stan dard deviations have been above 220.
This shows that there is consider able
yearly uctuation in rainfall in both
the zones.
Summary Results
The regression results presented in
T ables 2 and 3 (p 21) show that
(i) Annual average maximum tempera-
tures in both the zones are increasing,
while the annual average minimum tem-
perature is rising in zone 2. The a verage
rise in annual average maximum tem-
perature in zone 1 is 0.05
o
C per year or
0.5
o
C per decade. The rise of annual
average maximum temperature in zone 2
is around 0.28
o
C per decade. The increase
in average temperature is also supported
by other studies. Shrestha et al (1999)
show that temperature in Nepal Himalayas
is increasing at the rate of 0.6
o
C per
decade while the global temperature is
increasing at rate of 0.75
o
C per decade
over last hundred years (IPCC 2007).
(ii) The average minimum temperature
shows a rising trend for all the months
for zone 2, maximum being for February
and March. The rise in average minimum
temperature in February and March is
Table 1: Monthly and Annual Mean Values and Standard Deviation of Climatic Variables in Kullu District of Himachal Pradesh
Variable January February March April May June July August Septem- Octo- Novem- Decem- Annual
ber ber ber ber
Zone 1 (1,090 m)
Relative humidity mean monthly maximum (%), 1985-2005 Mean 91.6 89.2 86.7 86.5 82.9 79.8 86.9 90.3 89.0 88.5 91.4 91.5 87.9
Std Dev 2.4 4.6 7.5 6.4 5.7 7.0 5.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.8
Relative humidity mean monthly minimum (%), 1985-2005 Mean 42.0 43.6 41.3 37.2 34.6 40.1 58.1 60.1 52.1 34.6 33.5 38.3 43.0
Std Dev 6.9 7.5 10.3 7.4 6.9 6.6 8.6 5.1 5.0 7.4 7.0 11.1 2.9
Mean maximum temperature (degree celsius), 1985-2005 Mean 15.6 17.3 21.2 26.3 30.9 32.9 31.1 30.4 29.7 27.2 23.0 17.7 25.3
Std Dev 1.6 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 2.1 0.7
Mean minimum temperature (degree celsius), 1985-2005 Mean 1.0 3.2 6.1 12.4 12.7 17.4 21.1 20.7 17.1 8.9 3.5 0.8 10.1
Std Dev 1.1 1.0 1.7 3.1 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.0
Total rainfall (mm), 1975-2005 Mean 74.9 95.9 117.0 78.4 83.0 66.0 141.0 110.2 72.0 27.1 25.7 21.0 911.7
Std Dev 54.9 52.0 68.6 45.9 67.9 47.7 82.8 68.8 70.5 42.7 41.6 29.0 222.4
Total number of rainy days, 1975-2005 Mean 7.0 8.7 10.0 8.6 9.3 8.2 13.7 12.8 8.2 2.7 2.3 3.4 95.1
Std Dev 3.4 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.8 4.3 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.9 17.6
Mean bright sunshine hours (hr/day), 1986-2005 Mean 4.8 5.4 6.4 7.6 8.3 8.2 6.1 5.9 7.3 8.2 6.8 5.1 6.7
Std Dev 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.3
Zone 2 (1,670 m)
Average relative humidity (%), 1970-2010 Mean 69.9 70.3 67.2 64.9 64.3 70.4 84.5 87.0 78.1 64.9 61.5 62.3 70.5
Std Dev 8.0 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.8 6.8 5.0 5.1 6.6 6.8 9.1 11.2 4.2
Mean maximum temperature (degree celsius), 1970-2010 Mean 10.9 12.6 16.4 21.7 25.0 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.4 23.0 18.6 14.0 20.7
Std Dev 1.6 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.0
Mean minimum temperature (degree celsius), 1970-2010 Mean 1.8 2.8 6.0 9.6 12.5 16.0 18.9 18.5 15.2 9.6 6.0 3.2 10.0
Std Dev 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.5 1.8 3.1 2.0 1.5
Total rainfall (mm),1970-2010 Mean 113.2 115.5 165.4 96.5 81.1 76.4 170.1 160.1 100.2 39.5 42.2 51.7 1,166.8
Std Dev 136.9 77.4 103.5 62.2 71.4 42.7 89.2 81.2 75.4 47.9 49.1 43.3 290.8
Average sunshine hours, 1974-2010 Mean 4.9 5.0 5.6 6.6 7.6 7.3 5.4 5.5 6.7 7.6 6.8 5.2 6.2
Std Dev 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.4
Total snowfall (mm), 1970-2010 Mean 281.7 177.1 32.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 75.3 567.8
Std Dev 368.4 196.6 72.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.9 170.5 530.2
Source: The data related to zone 1 is obtained from HAREC, Bajaura, while for the zone 2 it is obtained from IARI, Katrain.
COMMENTARY
Economic & Political Weekly EPW january 25, 2014 vol xlix no 4
21
about 1.12
o
C and 0.97
o
C, res pectively,
per decade, while the increase in annual
average minimum temperature for the
zone 2 is 0.89
o
C per decade.
(iii) Surprisingly zone 1 shows a decline
in average minimum temperature for
June of about -1.7
o
C per decade. This
month also shows an increase in the
number of rainy days and minimum and
maximum relative humidity, and decrease
in bright sunshine hours.
(iv) In zone 2 also the month of June has
experienced an increase in amount of
rainfall (of 1.34 mm per year) and a de-
crease in average sunshine hours.
(v) Annual average relative humidity
has increased in both the zones of the
district. The rise in annual average rela-
tive humidity in zone 2 is 0.16% per year,
while in zone 1 annual average maximum
relative humidity has increased by 0.36%
per year. Zone 1 has also experienced an
increase in average maximum relative
humidity in all months, except July
and September.
(vi) Snowfall, which mainly occurs in
zone 2 during October to March, has not
shown any signicant trend of decline
or increase.
Thus, one can conclude from the
results presented above that the climate
in both the zones is getting warmer and
more humid. Though rainfall and snow-
fall did not change signicantly, the
increasing trend in temperature can
bring about variations of those variables
as well. The rise in temperature can
affect agriculture and horticulture on
which a majority of the districts popu-
lation is dependent. With very little mit-
igation measures, the only hope to avoid
future climatic consequences is to un-
dertake adaptive measures. However
the question is whether rural-based
communities of these areas have the
capabilities and whether they can
afford the cost of adaptation, which can
be huge.
References
BBC (2007): The Story of India, TV Documentary,
Episode 1, BBC UK, presented by Michael
Wood.
Census of India (2011): Provisional Population
Totals, Paper 2 of 2011: Himachal Pradesh,
Ofce of the Registrar General and Census
Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, Gov-
ernment of India, New Delhi.
Table 2: Trend in Climatic Variables in Zone 1 (Altitude 1,090 Metres) of Kullu District
Zone 1 (1,090 m)
Month Intercept () Trend Coefficient p-Value of R-Square
() Trend Coefficient
Average maximum temperature
o
C (1985-2005)
May 28.600 0.208 0.015 0.272
Annual average 24.705 0.052 0.040 0.204
Average minimum temperature
o
C (1985-2005)
June 19.278 -0.172 0.022 0.247
Number of rainy days (1975-2005)
June 6.123 0.131 0.029 0.154
Average maximum relative humidity (1985-2005)
January 89.500 0.188 0.022 0.246
February 84.395 0.44 0.004 0.359
March 80.524 0.558 0.034 0.216
April 81.476 0.455 0.046 0.194
May 77.986 0.443 0.026 0.235
June 70.890 0.806 0.00 0.507
August 87.771 0.229 0.012 0.291
October 85.767 0.251 0.031 0.223
November 88.414 0.274 0.049 0.189
December 89.305 0.197 0.045 0.196
Annual average 83.905 0.364 0.005 0.351
Average minimum relative humidity (1985-2005)
June 33.814 0.575 0.012 0.29
Days of bright sunshine (mean hours/day) (1986-2005)
March 5.626 0.078 0.021 0.263
June 9.088 -0.084 0.021 0.275
The trend has been computed using regression equation, y = + t + e, where y is dependent variable, is intercept, t is
time and takes value 0,1,2,n for the years, is trend coefficient, and e is error term.
Source: Computed by the authors from the data obtained from HAREC, Bajaura.
Table 3: Trend in Climatic Variables in Zone 2 (Altitude 1,670 Metres) of Kullu District
Zone 2 (1,670 m)
Month Intercept () Trend p-Value of Trend R-square
Coefficient () Coefficient
Average maximum temperature
o
C (1970-2010)
January 9.979 0.044 0.035 0.109
July 25.752 0.056 0.007 0.172
August 25.273 0.064 0.006 0.18
Annual average 20.095 0.028 0.023 0.126
Average minimum temperature
o
C (1970-2010)
January -0.058 0.087 0 0.369
February 0.427 0.112 0 0.4
March 3.926 0.097 0 0.28
April 7.843 0.085 0.002 0.228
May 10.692 0.086 0.002 0.217
June 14.328 0.078 0.001 0.241
July 17.108 0.083 0 0.356
August 16.591 0.088 0 0.386
September 13.382 0.087 0.006 0.178
October 7.991 0.075 0.001 0.241
November 4.217 0.083 0.038 0.106
December 1.617 0.076 0.002 0.215
Annual average 8.112 0.089 0 0.452
Total annual rainfall (in mm) (1970-2010)
June 48.248 1.338 0.016 0.141
Average relative humidity (1970-2010)
February 64.243 0.289 0.003 0.204
April 59.932 0.239 0.027 0.119
December 53.879 0.401 0.005 0.184
Annual average 67.175 0.156 0.003 0.203
Average sunshine (hours/days) (1974-2010)
June 8.325 -0.053 0.001 0.298
August 6.395 -0.048 0.009 0.178
Annual average 6.474 -0.014 0.013 0.193
Source: Computed by the authors from the data obtained from IARI, Katrain.
COMMENTARY
january 25, 2014 vol xlix no 4 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
22
Precipitation Indices in South Africa: 1910-2004,
International Journal of Climatology, 26 (15):
2275-85.
Pal, I and Al Tabbaa A (2009): Regional Changes
in Extreme Monsoon Rainfall Decit and
Excess in India, Dynamics of Atmosphere and
Oceans, 49 (2-3): 206-14.
Ranbir, R, R Bhagat, V Kalia and H Lal (2009):
Impact of Climate Change on Shift of Apple
Belt in Himachal Pradesh, paper presented
at conference of ISPRS on Climate Change
and Agriculture, Ahmedabad, Dec ember.
Shrestha, A B, C P Wake, P A Mayeski and J E Dibb
(1999): Maximum Temperature Trends in
the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis
Based on Temperature Records from Nepal
for the Period 1971-94, Journal of Climate, 12:
2773-87.
Vedwan, N and R Rhoades (2001): Climate Change
in Western Himalayas of India: A Study of
L ocal Perception and Response, Climate
R esearch, 19: 109-17.
Government of Himachal Pradesh (2012): District
Level Economic Indicator 2010-11, Department
of Economics and Statistics, Himachal Pradesh,
www.himachal.nic.in/economics/pub.htm,
viewed on 15 July 2013.
Huntington, Ellsworth (1922): Principles of Human
Geography (New York: Wiley).
IPCC (2007): Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Re-
port [IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR 4)],
Geneva, Switzerland.
Kruger, A C (2006): Observed Trends in Daily
Historical Validity of
Mullaperiyar Project
R Seenivasan
This historical analysis of the
Periyar project questions the
arguments and some of the
contemporary claims made about
the projects engineering and
construction, and its
environmental impact. Far from
being an environmentally
destructive project, this was a
pacist scheme when it was
built. The article throws light on
these issues by analysing
historical documents.
C
ontroversies surrounding the
Periyar dam have acquired differ-
ent dimensions over time. New
claims have been made that the original
conception of the project itself was an
environmentally harmful idea. For Ra-
maswamy R Iyer, a proponent of such a
theory, the dam appears to be a case of
hubristic and maximalist engineering
and a bad example,
1
and he raises some
basic questions about the planning
and the need for the dam itself.
2
These
arguments resemble in many ways the
theories advanced by historians
3
study-
ing north and east Indian oodplains.
Without making any statements on
these studies, this article examines the
merits of similar arguments advanced
by Iyer.
This article uses Periyar project docu-
ments, district manuals and gazetteers
of the times, and engineering histories
written by engineers on the project. It
argues that whatever was done by the
British in Vaigai and Periyar was an ex-
tension of the possibilities that existed in
irrigation engineering at the time. These
examples of engineering and planning
cannot be solely ascribed to the European
way of science and engineering.
How True Are These Claims?
It is true that building the Periyar dam
had no precedence in engineering and
was an extraordinary effort for its time.
In the late 19th century, the project gen-
erated great interest among engineers,
geographers, administrators and revenue
ofcials. The number of proposals and
plans made
4
about the Periyar project it-
self is an indication of an intense and
passionate debate about using natural
resources. The project, unlike many oth-
er contemporary projects, had to under-
go vetting by several agencies of the
time and took nearly 11 years to get ap-
proved by the British government. While
there is no doubt that land revenue gen-
eration was a major consideration, the
project was also put forth as a famine
control measure
5
and for the social
development of certain denotied castes
that lived in the area.
The project invited attention from
around the world, and was watched
carefully for its results. For example, the
Royal Geographic Societys monthly
journal reported about the difculties
and benets of this endeavour in the fol-
lowing words:
The difculties of the undertaking were
increased by the nature of the country
jungle-clad, malarious, and uninhabited
and the altitude (2800 feet) to which the
materials had to be dragged up steep slopes
with an average gradient of 1 in 15, four
large unbridged rivers also having to be
crossed on the way from the nearest railway
station. Water-power was utilized in the
work wherever possible, and altogether
the best eco nomy of force was practised,
with a result that the total cost of this bene-
cent u ndertaking has been less than half
a million sterling at the present rate of
exchange, on which outlay the direct
prots should yield a handsome return (The
Society 1895: 567).
The dam construction used mostly
l ocal ingredients such as stone and lime
sourced nearby. Very few machineries
and iron works came from Europe. The
project had three main components
the dam and lake on the hills, a tunnel
to transmit, and channels inside the
Vaigai basin. Local technicians, artisans
and labourers from the neighbouring
R Seenivasan (r.seenivasan@gmail.com) is a
PhD candidate at the School of Law, University
of Westminster, London.