This document discusses the short-term nature of public capital markets compared to private equity markets. It argues that public companies face immense pressure from analysts to meet short-term earnings expectations, which can undermine long-term growth and innovation. In contrast, private equity firms take a longer-term view over 5-10 years when making investment decisions. The document proposes several solutions to encourage longer-term thinking in public markets, such as compensation structures tied to long-term stock performance and abandoning quarterly earnings guidance.
This document discusses the short-term nature of public capital markets compared to private equity markets. It argues that public companies face immense pressure from analysts to meet short-term earnings expectations, which can undermine long-term growth and innovation. In contrast, private equity firms take a longer-term view over 5-10 years when making investment decisions. The document proposes several solutions to encourage longer-term thinking in public markets, such as compensation structures tied to long-term stock performance and abandoning quarterly earnings guidance.
This document discusses the short-term nature of public capital markets compared to private equity markets. It argues that public companies face immense pressure from analysts to meet short-term earnings expectations, which can undermine long-term growth and innovation. In contrast, private equity firms take a longer-term view over 5-10 years when making investment decisions. The document proposes several solutions to encourage longer-term thinking in public markets, such as compensation structures tied to long-term stock performance and abandoning quarterly earnings guidance.
Guided Study Enforcing Private-Equity Thinking in Public-Equity Markets
Prepared by: Aaquib Nasir Prepared for: Professor Greg Milavsky April 2014
# Abstract This paper is an empirical investigation of the short-term nature of capital markets. Recent debate suggests that the prevalent view in markets is short-term in nature as companies forgo future success for short-term earnings. Thorough analysis indicates that the root of the short-term thinking is due to the overbearing pressure that research analysts exude on the prospects of a companys future. Private-equity as an asset class has offered meaningfully higher returns than public-equities and given the long-term view private-equity firms take on their investments, as five-to-ten year investments, takeaways can be taken from the private-equity model to inspire a healthier, longer-term platform for public companies. Solutions that will be explored include: Mandatory Compensation Structures ensuring the management and board members own a meaningful percentage of a companys equity in order to align interests. Abandoning Earnings Guidance relying on performance metrics that span broader than the traditional EPS number. Lock-Up Structure on Public Equities mandating a hold-time on public equities to ensure investors have a vested interest in the long-term interests of companies. Prohibit Institutions from Speaking to Management barring research analysts from interacting with management to ensure transparent, balanced information. Remove the Role of Sell-Side Research allowing only independent, conflict-free research firms to report on a companys prospects.
$ Table of Contents
Timeline of Capital Markets %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% & Civil War Era %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% & Analysis %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% "' Post-Depression %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% "" Analysis %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% "$ 1980-1999 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% "$ Analysis %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% "( LBO Boom %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ") Analysis %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% "* Dot-Com Boom %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% "& Analysis %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% #' Takeaways %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% #" Case Study: Goldman Sachs %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% #$ History %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% #$ Reflections %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% $# The Problem %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% $$ The Importance of Research Analysts %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% $$ Why Private Companies Work %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% $) Examples %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% $& Potential Solutions %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% (' Mandated Compensation Structures %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% (' Abandon Earnings Guidance %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ($ Lock-up Structure on Public Equities %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% (( Prohibit Outside Institutions From Speaking to Management %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% (+ Remove the Role of Sell-Side Research %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% (+ Final Thoughts %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% (&
( Mandate
This guided study will explore, and aim to propose solutions to, problems relating to the short-term nature of investing and decision-making activities in the public markets, in comparison to the different behavioural and operational mindset of private-equity backed companies. The problem being explored arises from pressures that public companies face in the short-term to meet analyst estimates and stakeholder expectations. Short-term thinking becomes a problem because of the potential value that is destroyed or unrealized when decisions are rationalized on a quarterly timeframe, as opposed to the longer-term horizon adopted by private equity firms. Despite the increased administrative costs of going public for example, the compliance costs related to Sarbanes-Oxley the impermanent structure of todays public markets threaten a companys long-term innovation, strategic plans, and ultimately shareholder returns. The on-going focus on meeting quarterly earnings and analyst estimates deters management from broader, strategic priorities. Management should focus their efforts on building going-concern companies with initiatives that emphasize the long-term, but the pressure on meeting earnings expectations has resulted in attention being diverted to increasing EPS numbers, sometimes by laying of staff, financial engineering, and at times even outright fraud. According to a December 2013 study by McKinsey and CPPIB, in which 1,000 board members and C-Level executives were interviewed, 86% believed that a longer time horizon to make business decisions would positively affect corporate performance in a number of ways, including strengthening financial returns and increasing innovation. ) Despite the increasing awareness of the detriments of short-term public market focus, 63% of respondents claimed that the pressure to demonstrate short-term financial performance has increased over the previous five years. 1
This focus on meeting the estimates of research analysts is what led to the demise of many companies in the early 2000s. Daniel Reingold, author of Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst outlined how companies of all scales engaged in accounting manipulation and often pressured investment banks to publish positive outlooks on their company in exchange for investment banking business. 2 Regulators have since implemented policies to ensure that the structure of investment banks is no longer prone to these flagrant conflicts of interests, but what hasnt changed is the focus on quarterly results and the pressure to meet market expectations. As outlined in Beth McLeans book, The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron, much of Enrons motivations to pursue fraudulent accounting statements were driven by 1) the immense pressure felt to meet analyst estimates; and 2) the perverse compensation incentives that rewarded short-term increases in share price. Todays management teams face similar circumstances but pressures are further exacerbated due to activist investors, takeover threats from large private equity funds, and attacks from short sellers. When a management teams principal focus is on next quarters earnings and not the long-term growth of the company, a structural conflict of
" "Insights & Publications." Focusing Capital on the Long Term. McKinsey & Co., Dec. 2013. Web. 04 Mar. 2014. # Reingold, Dan, and Jennifer Reingold. Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst: A True Story of inside Information and Corruption in the Stock Market. New York: Collins, 2006. Print.
+ interest exists between the expediency of short-term goals at the expense of forgone long- term value and lack of innovation. Contrast this to a private equity owned firm that makes its decisions based on a five- year time frame. In a private equity environment, layoffs are undertaken to preserve a business that is at risk of failing, but typically as a last-resort option. A private equity firm has the flexibility to implement decisions that can grow the company in the long-term without consideration for the next ninety days. In 2011 when Governor Mitt Romney ran for President and faced attacks regarding his experience at Bain Capital where allegations arose that he had laid off employees as part of his the firms private equity operations, he responded by extolling the virtues of private equity and mentioning that by laying off jobs in some companies, the companies were able to stay afloat and many years later prospered. 3
The same troubled companies that private-equity firms often acquired would have pursued bankruptcy had they been public companies. When private equity investors acquire stakes of companies, they ensure that management compensation is aligned with the interests of investors, through the use of warrants and equity interests that provide a step- up in returns if certain objectives are met at the end of the year or the end of five years. This is quite a contrast to our current public-market landscape, where executives are rewarded for quarterly share price increases. In some cases, when a portfolio company is struggling, private equity firms will even inject further capital in the company through bolt-on acquisitions a signal that the private-equity firm believes in its growth. A follow-on equity offering in the public markets tends to signal to investors that a company is in grave need for capital and has failed to acquire funding in the debt markets. This implication creates
$ Murray, Sara. "Romney Defends His Record at Bain." The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Company, 17 May 2012. Web. 5 Nov. 2013.
* reluctance to raise funds when needed and instead encourages the company to act in the least-volatile fashion possible. In private equity, long-term thinking, not short-term results, guide strategic decisions that can only be undertaken because external pressures relating to short-term performance from Wall Street dont exist. With this prevailing short-termism in public markets, a simple solution may be to discourage companies from going public and instead allocate greater amounts of capital to private equity funds. However, as hedge-fund manager William Ackman describes, public markets have the potential to implement the same functions that drive the success of private-equity backed firms 4 : [In most] businesses you can create more value as public companies than you can by taking them private. I think businesses should only be taken private if theyve reached the end of their strategic life, meaning that theyve grown as far as they can grow and theres no more value that can be created as a public company
If you think about what private equity does they make changes to management, make changes to strategy, cost structure, capital structure; all of these things are available in the public market. In fact, I think its a failure when a company sells itself to private equity. It means that the company itself, the management, the board and its shareholders couldnt figure out how to create the value on their own.
Over the course of this guided study, we will explore, in a nutshell: can public companies be managed as though they were private? And to help construct the analysis of where views diverged, we will consider the history of Wall Streets influence on corporations. Approaches that will be considered include the frequency of company
( "Bill Ackman; Jason Dufner." Charlie Rose. PBS. 12 Aug. 2013. Web. 04 Jan. 2014.
& reporting, management compensation, and disclosure requirements pertaining to quarterly results and investor activity. Timeline of Capital Markets
The short-term nature of todays public markets has been derived by the pressure management teams feel to meet quarterly EPS guidance, and this view is further proliferated by Wall Streets own target financials. The success of a company is predicated upon whether the company has been able to consistently meet analyst expectations, which is measured on a quarterly basis. Given this peculiar dynamic, the modern day corporation has conceded control of major strategic decisions to Wall Street research analysts. Historically, financiers were the middlemen for the corporation and the providers of capital, yet over time this dynamic has evolved to the overbearing influence that investment banks currently possess. To identify the shift between corporations using investment bankers solely for financing activities to the modern day approach where companies need Wall Street as a source of validation, the history of the industry will be drawn out and analyzed. To illustrate this shift, a case study will be presented on Goldman Sachs; the securities firm founded in 1869 that has helped shape the shift in the roles investment banks play in our capitalistic society. Civil War Era
Prior to the civil war era, families including Seligman, Lehman, Loeb, and Goldman focused mercantile activities, principally operating by offering a single service: raising debt for small companies seeking to grow. Commercial banking first began following the Revolutionary War (1775-1783) by simply lending money, safeguarding deposits, and , issuing banknotes. Commercial banks held $700 million of loans but the US had yet to adopt a unified natural currency, and without that, participants in the banking system were often left confused. Replacing the older state-owned banking system, the National Banking Act of 1863 implemented a dual system of federal and state chartered banks. The era brought forth the interest-bearing demand deposits; deposits which, over a century later, would be used for proprietary trading. 5
During the civil war, banks heavily lent to fund the governments war efforts. The initiative took off when American financier Jay Cooke underwrote a total of $1.5 billion of capital for the Treasury. Following Cookes initiatives, many corporations began seeking funds to grow and consolidate. This led to the creation of the modern day investment bank. First, as a function of capital, investment banks increased their role during the boom period (1920s) by raising debt for railroads and industrial companies that required capital that extended beyond the capacity of traditional commercial banks. Second, the concept of active investment banking emerged. Active investment banking represented the influence of a banker through membership on corporate boards or other committees. The business began moving from a capital-intensive model where the relationship was derived on a banks ability to raise debt, to one where the investment banker was a CEOs advisor and partner. Long-term relationships between CEOs and bankers were formed as CEOs looked to their investment bankers not only for M&A / underwriting advice, but on a variety of strategic decisions. In contrast to modern day where the investment banker is attached with stigmas pertaining to excessive bonuses, risk-taking, and tax payer-led bailouts, the model
) Beattie, Andrew. "The History Of Capitalism: From Feudalism To Wall Street."Investopedia. N.p., 04 Oct. 2011. Web. 26 Nov. 2014.
"' where an investment banker is considered a stamp of approval beyond fairness opinions required for company boards -- represents a stark contrast.
Analysis
The post-civil era represented the first evolution to modern day investment banking. It began from raising capital for companies to assisting with M&A negotiations, to serving as a CEOs partner in their most difficult times. At its core, M&A is one of the most important decisions a CEO could make. An M&A transaction is the culmination of several years of scrupulous planning with a CEOs advisors to engage in a long-term, illiquid transaction. Unlike the stock market where one can enter a transaction on a Tuesday and exit on a Thursday, M&A transactions by nature of their illiquidity are one of the most important decisions a CEO will make during his or her career. Therefore, when contemplating M&A transactions, CEOs had looked upon their trusted partner their investment banker to serve as a vote of confidence to its board, its employees, and its partners. This was partly due to the limited scope of large companies engaging in M&A transactions but it was prominently because of the partnership model in place. M&A wasnt a commoditized service, which banks competed for, based on fee percentage or debt capabilities. Instead, it was the result of the multi-year process of building a long-term relationship with their trusted advisor. In fact, Henry Ford the former CEO of Ford Motor Company once referred to his investment banker at Goldman Sachs, Sidney Weinberg, as his best friend. In modern day investment banking which is convoluted with conflicts of interests, it would be rare for a CEO to consider a banker his friend. These conflicts of interest emerge from the investment banks dual role of both a principal and agent, with the investment bank sometimes taking opposing stances on the "" same transaction. Ken Moelis, previously of UBS left the firm in 2008 to start his own investment-banking boutique named Moelis & Co., with the intention of developing a business model that reverts back to the old-fashioned investment banking model, which focused on advice. In an interview with CNBC after defecting from UBS, Moelis affirmed that clients appreciated the move. Some of my best relationships would say, thank you for getting away from that [environment]. I know youre a good guy but I was concerned. I didnt know what your CDS position was, whether you had a bank loan, what your research position was, what your trading position was. And I think people are genuinely concerned that these large organizations have some other agenda. 6
Post-Depression
The stock-market crash of 1929 brought forth the first major collapse of the financial system in the US, with 40% of banks either failing or forced to merge. 7 The era represented the first time the moral of bankers were questioned on a public scale. It was believed that questionable practices by bankers led to the economic depression and correspondingly, the public demanded external regulations are imposed on financial institutions. In fact, it is widely believed that mirroring the events of the 2008 stock market crash; the Depression could have been avoided with more stringent use of regulation. Prior to the depression, in 1907, following panicked selling on the NYSE, banker J.P. Morgan assembled a free- market solution that transferred capital from healthy banks with excess capital to those who needed it during the dire times. Twenty years later during the depression, after the Federal Reserve had been established, the Fed refused to bail out financial institutions that were
+ Ken Moelis on Bloomberg Television. Bloomberg. 15 Oct. 2009. Television. * "The History of Investment Banking." WallStreetPrep.com. Wall Street Prep, n.d. Web. 04 Dec. 2014.
"# going under ironically, to discourage the irrevocable behavior by investment banks, perceived to have led to the economic collapse. Despite several other factors that played into the depression occurring, such as the Federal Reserves push to keep interest rates low in the 1920s, and President Roosevelts timid response to the initial signs of calamity, Wall Street was perhaps unfairly the only segment of the population that was demonized as a result of the depression. The events that the public blamed Wall Street for were in many ways events that recurred prior to 2008s Great Recession: excessive risk, overconfidence, and investor exuberance. The policy response post-Depression was institutional change to increase safeguards and ensure greater transparency in the financial markets. Several pieces of regulation were introduced, including the Revenue Act, the Securities Act, the Securities Exchange Act and the infamous Glass-Steagall Act. The Glass-Steagall Act prohibits commercial banks from engaging in investment banking activities and vice versa, which led to many commercial banks, such as JP Morgan being split up into separate entities (Morgan Stanley and Morgan Greenfell, in JP Morgans case). 8 The use of individual depositors money to engage in investment banking activities was widely viewed as excessively risky, and by splitting up the activities of deposit-takers and investment banks, consumers could rely on its commercial bank to safely preserve their capital. These new safeguards worked well for many decades. It wasnt until the 1980s when the activities of investment bankers were once again questioned.
& "Time.com." Business Money Forget GlassSteagall Repeal Its the Securities Acts Amendments of 1975 That Really Did Us In Comments. Time, 02 Oct. 2008. Web. 14 Oct. 2013.
"$ Analysis
Until the great depression, the relationship between bankers and corporate CEOs remained a sacred one that stayed out of the publics eyes. After the great depression, the populace began expressing outlash at investment banks for using consumer deposits for risky investing activities; this led to many modern day regulatory responses, including the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) which protects depositors funds up to $100,000. 9 The prolific public outrage led to the break-up of many commercial banks and wasnt repealed for several decades, in 1999. Unfortunately, the revocation of the Glass- Steagall Act quickly led the industry to pursue the same excesses that the Act aimed to avoid. 1980-1999
Beginning in the late 1970s, partly in response to shrinking commissions from trading activities leading to decreased investment bank profitability, the industry began engaging in proprietary trading activities and introduced a series of complex financial instruments: structured financial products and more prominently, junk bonds. Banks including Goldman Sachs, Salomon Brothers, DLJ, and Drexel Burnham Lambert began hiring and grooming proprietary traders to conduct trades using the banks own capital. This proved to be far more profitable than simply providing brokerage services or other commoditized services to clients. At the same time, the United States economy was
, The Editors of Encyclopdia Britannica. "Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) (United States Banking)." Encyclopedia Britannica Online. Encyclopedia Britannica, n.d. Web. 03 Dec. 2013. "( booming as GDP grew at a rate of 7%, while equity issuances and M&A were up 20% and 25%, respectively. 10
Fueled by Drexel Burnhams Michael Milken, Debt issuances were also up 25% in the 1980s and 1990s. Milken travelled across the country speaking to any investor who would listen, informing them of the missed opportunity in junk (high-yield) bonds. Former central banker Braddock Hickman, who detailed the default rates and returns on junk bonds, inspired Milken. Based on Hickmans conclusions, Milken believed that junk bonds offered an asymmetric risk / reward profile. Returns generated on junk bonds exceeded the probability of default; particularly for large, national corporations who had received an unfavorable credit rating but werent as risky as the markets had made them appear to be. The junk bond market began booming in the late 1980s, and because many banks had retreated from the space during the early 1980s recession, Milken and Drexel were able to generate a monopoly on the market. Investors could take comfort knowing that any junk bonds that Drexel underwrote would have a market for it, created and monitored by Milken. Analysis
Junk bonds helped meaningfully raise capital for companies that had no other way of obtaining debt to pursue acquisitions or growth strategies. Milken believed that many companies were undeservingly labeled falling angels and were instead stable, blue chip companies that had a low risk of default. In the event that the company did default, the return was more than adequate. However, over time Milken began issuing high yield debt much more liberally than when he first proposed his theory, and this led to companies with
"' "Stars of the Junkyard." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 23 Oct. 2010. Web. 10 Nov. 2013.
") no revenue and negative profits obtaining large amounts of leverage, on the basis that they, too, were formidable institutions that had simply suffered a short-term blow. The period also marked the beginning of an era marked by financial engineering. The quintessential Wall Street celebrity was Michael Milken, not the trusted investment banker. Milken was able to single-handedly raise Drexels stature from a boutique brokerage firm to the no. 1 issuer of junk bonds in the world. The easy money would later give birth to the LBO and fuel the countrys LBO boom. LBO Boom
Junk bonds were later used to fund leveraged buy-out (LBO) activity. The first major LBO was the acquisition of RJR Nabisco, a conglomerate that sold tobacco and food products, by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. Valued at $25 billion, the transaction was funded with $6 billion of junk bonds underwritten by Drexel. The $6 billion mezzanine debt issuance was so obscenely high that if Drexel were to gather every investor in any deal it had underwritten, and each investor invested the maximum theyve had in any past issuance, the RJR transaction would still double the value. 11
Though LBO funds were the primary user of junk bonds, many firms that had failed to raise capital from traditional investment banks were willing to pay Milken lofty 3%-4% fees (vs. 1% for investment-grade companies) to finance their expansion. The issuance of junk bonds helped Drexel grow its market share in several peripheral businesses, which marked an inherent conflict of interest prevalent across investment banks engaging in similar behavior. When Milken underwrote a junk bond for a Drexel client, Drexel was often
"" Wilson, Jim. "The Collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert; Key Events for Drexel Burnham Lambert." The New York Times. The New York Times, 13 Feb. 1990. Web. 04 Jan. 2014.
"+ awarded investment banking advisory fees on the transaction, as well as future commissions through its trading and brokerage arm. Similar conflicts were arising at Goldman Sachs, though not in the junk bond business. In Goldmans efforts to combat the squeezing margins Drexel felt, the firm began building up their asset management franchise to serve as a principal on transactions and correspondingly earn a greater return than they otherwise would have as simply an advisor. The desire for increased earnings in the Asset Management business led Goldman Sachs to compete with that the firm may have also been representing in an advisory role. For instance, the firm may have been representing a client on an acquisition that its private equity arm, Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, would simultaneously be seeking to acquire. In some cases, the client would have paid millions of dollars in fees to Goldman Sachs investment bankers to represent them in an auction, only to have been out-bid in the auction by, Goldman Sachs itself. The opaqueness of the dual roles signaled the shift away from client devotion to managing conflicts. After the junk bond industry increased six-fold in the first half of the 1980s, and ~$200 billion in junk bonds were being issued for M&A transactions, also at record highs, financial institutions across the Street were reaping the benefits of the excessive fees. Shareholders received larger premiums on companies they owned, encouraging them to continue trading and investing generating fees for banks which boosted the share price of companies and hence increased management compensation, while encouraging them to pursue more transactions also generating fees for banks. They pursued M&A transactions with an increasing reliability on junk bonds unsurprisingly, also generating fees for banks. The vicious loop continued to reinforce itself until the late 1980s when one of Drexels investment bankers, Dennis Levine, pled guilty to securities fraud in a broader insider trading scandal. The SEC ultimately built a case accusing Milken of insider trading, stock manipulation, and assisting in tax law violations. Drexel pled guilty on six counts of "* securities fraud, endured a $650 million fine, and agreed to fire Milken from the firm. 12 This scandal, in addition to a slowdown in the economy, and large losses for junk bond investors, led to the contraction of the junk bond industry. Analysis
Whether through an asset management business, junk bonds, or other financial mechanism, the industry had undergone a major transformation. The investment banker, once the CEOs most trusted partner in the area of financial and strategic decisions, was no longer basing their advice to pursue an M&A transaction solely based on its merit. Financial institutions that sought to grow their market share could no longer rely solely on investment banking revenues to increase earnings. Instead, the firm was incentivized to offer clients a range of services that would earn the bank, and correspondingly the investment banker, revenues. The perspective from a CEOs lens had changed, too. For instance, private-equity houses that relied heavily on the use of junk bonds in an acquisition would rely on Drexel because of their confidence in Drexels underwriting capabilities, not on the basis of Drexels advice or confidence in the transaction. Instead, private-equity firms had their own view on the merits of a deal and were reluctant to seek the investment banks approval. In a time when corporations were rapidly growing inorganically, the focus became less on prudent and reliable advice from ones trusted investment banker, and more on which financial institution was capable of underwriting the debt required. In a time where M&A was prevalent across many industries, CEOs felt the urgent need to pursue large, industry- transformative transactions, and quickly. As a result, the bond between a CEO and an
"# "Stars of the Junkyard." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 23 Oct. 2010. Web. 10 Nov. 2013. "& investment banker became much more commoditized. Less emphasis was placed on the advice as it was on the execution.
Many of the incentive systems in place, along with the general direction of Wall Street firms in the 1980s portended the next major economic downturn in the early 2000s. Dot-Com Boom
The next time Wall Streets credibility had been questioned was during the late 1990s. It represented another cycle of market exuberance, unjustifiable investor confidence, lack of due diligence, and Wall Street excess. As highlighted in Dan Reingolds book, Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst, the dynamic between the investment banker and CEO meaningfully evolved during the Dot-Com Boom. 13
The dot-com boom was initiated by a large wave of technology companies seeking capital to help build and grow their businesses. Among the long list of businesses that were caught up in the bubble include Amazon, WorldCom, Nortel, Broadcast.com, among others. As internet companies began seeking capital, equity issuances rose to record highs and there began another bubble. Companies with virtually no revenues were going public and investment banks including Goldman Sachs that had previously enforced policies outlining the minimum required revenues and earnings a company must generate before going public abandoned these principles in an effort to generate fees and league table credit. In the telecom industry, small companies with nominal revenues were going public and growing larger by acquiring smaller players. How does a company with nominal revenues and negative earnings get larger by acquisitions? Using stock as its currency. With inflated
"$ Reingold, Dan, and Jennifer Reingold. Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst: A True Story of inside Information and Corruption in the Stock Market. New York: Collins, 2006. Print. ", multiples on companies that produced no actual profits, many technology and telecom companies were using their equity to fund acquisitions, in hopes that the combined company would produce revenue synergies in the future, thus helping justify an increase in the combined companys stock price and P/E ratio. From Wall Streets perspective, IPO issuances and M&A activity was booming, and as a result the fees did, too. Stock prices continued an upward trend and investors of all risk tolerances were investing in the latest dot-com stock. This created an issue for research analysts on Wall Street, as they were required to provide buy / sell ratings and corresponding target stock prices for companies whose prospects were based solely on superfluous management assumptions. The research analysts behaviour following the dot- com bubble was at the center of Elliot Spitzers case against Wall Street, in which permanent, structural changes were implemented to prohibit interaction between research analysts and investment bankers. Following the 1980s LBO boom, companies viewed their investment banker as just one part of a large institution of financial service products, not a long-term strategic partner. After the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 following a push by Travelers CEO Sandy Weill to ensure that the merger between Travelers and Citigroup consummated, financial supermarkets such as Citigroup were formed, but even traditional investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley provided a whole slew of services such as debt / equity issuances, research reports, and M&A execution. Given the euphoric state of the industry, many companies were seeking equity issuances and only a limited number of banks had the capacity to underwrite those issuances. Thus, pressure mounted on the banks to ramp up capacity in an effort to underwrite the highest number of deals for fees and league table credit. #' Dan Reingold further explained that while working at Merrill Lynch, the firms research department was under intense pressure as clients often attempted to sway the ratings of sell-side analysts by inferring that only financial institutions that gave the firm positive ratings were deserving of its business, including sought-after IPO and M&A transactions. Therefore, pressure rose for research analysts to continue offering up buy ratings and optimistic views on companies that lacked profitability and any basis for growth. The period resulted in several charges against many industry executives. Jack Grubman of Salomon Smith Barney, earning over $25 million a year as the highest paid research analyst on Wall Street, was tangled in several conflicts of interests. On one instance, he upgraded AT&Ts stock as a bribe to offer his children admission to an elite New York private school. In many instances, Grubman was involved in M&A transactions at Smith Barney, posing a discernible conflict of interest due to the unprecedented access he had to proprietary information that he then used to publish to institutional investors and build a reputation as an omniscient analyst. Grubman was ultimately barred from the securities industry for life and fined $15 million by the SEC. 14
Analysis
Continuing with the trend of M&A evolving into a commoditized service, the dot-com boom demonstrated that M&A activity no longer required years of analysis by a CEO and a partner. Instead, technology companies felt the need to keep up with the pace of the growth in the industry, and saw M&A as a quick way to grow inorganically using their equity. The value of the equity was validated by investor sentiment, which was derived from the views of research analysts. Therefore, companies ceded control of their growth to research
"( Guyon, Janet. "Jack Grubman Is Back. Just Ask Him." CNNMoney. Cable News Network, 16 May 2005. Web. 04 Nov. 2013. #" analysts who had complete authority over a companys share price. As a result, research became perhaps the most important function for an investment bank, as a positive research rating was the single pre-requisite to generate revenues in other businesses. If a research analyst were to issue a positive rating on a company, it could generate investment-banking fees, debt underwriting fees, IPO fees, and increase trading commissions. Frank Quattrone of Credit Suisse realized the importance of research analysts and developed a compensation structure which awarded analyst compensation based on a percentage of total investment banking revenues. The research business was intended to provide unbiased views for institutional investors, who would in turn use the research as part of their diligence efforts. The new Wall Street structure transformed the business into an entry point for a pipeline of fees that could be generated by corporate clients. Once again, the model of investment banks being partners and stamps of approvals shifted to one where investment banks were simply large conglomerates that you went to for execution, not advisory purposes. Takeaways
Throughout every boom, particularly the dot-com boom and LBO boom, companies on the other side of investment banks felt enormous pressure to grow as quickly as Wall Street would allow them to. If a tech company wasnt growing through acquisitions, then it was failing to keep up in a world where Amazons, eBays, and Yahoos were emerging. The only way to grow as a tech company with no revenues, no assets and no debt capacity was by funding growth through the companys equity. The impact of a change in a companys research rating had major implications, even on promising companies such as Amazon. In 2000, analyst Ravi Suria of Lehman Brothers posted a research report probing into Amazons losses, and the stock subsequently fell 20%, considerably hindering its ability to ## use stock as form of currency. 15 In hindsight, from a CEOs perspective during the dot-com boom, Wall Streets prevalence on a companys plans was hard to ignore. As competition grew in size and scale, many of these companies recognized that in order to maintain their position against the benchmark was by accessing equity financing thus using stock was a greatly cherished tool. Knowing how sensitive a stock was to the views of research analysts, the only way to grow a company was to appease the research analysts. They had complete control over the only form of currency to pay employees, acquisition targets, and even suppliers. Furthermore, CEOs of these technology companies didnt view investment banks as partners, but firms they need to impress their entire business relied on it. The many years of service that an investment banker would provide to serve his or her client was quickly reversed with the CEO now having to pitch their companies to the investment banks. Through meetings, investor days, and the allure of high fees, companies felt the need to prove their companys worth to investment banks. A company that failed to garner the praise of research analysts could fail to generate meaningful traction from investors to raise funds for an IPO. Even existing public companies were exposed to these risks, as their value would quickly dwindle if any investment bank were to lower their ratings. In the early-to-mid 1900s, investment banks were fighting for the CEOs attention in an attempt to build a long-term relationship. In the late 1900s and early 2000s, a shift occurred where corporations were now competing to capture the attention of established investment banks in an attempt to gain credibility.
") Stone, Brad. The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon. N.p.: n.p., n.d. Print.
#$ Case Study: Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs has experienced, first-hand the changes in the dynamics between investment banks and corporations. From its modest beginnings as a partnership that provides capital to its role as a trusted advisor to boards and CEOs to its current stature that has led Rolling Stone Magazine to label it a blood-sucking vampire squid 16 , Goldman Sachs is the quintessential investment bank that lost its roots after an array of internal and external changes. Below is a timeline detailing the investment banks history. History
1869 1929 Founder Marcus Goldman began in 1869 by selling promissory notes from a one-room office on Pine Street. After hiring his son-in law, Samuel Sachs, they together formed Goldman, Sachs & Co. The firms expansion was modest but nonetheless, impressive. By 1904, its capital reached $1 million and shortly after, the firm co-managed its first IPO for United Cigar Manufacturers. This period also brought forth one of the companys future leaders, Sidney Weinberg, who joined the firm as a janitor and 1907 and twenty years later was the second partner at Goldman Sachs who was not from one of the two founding families. The company also suffered its first major reputational and financial loss by engaging in trading after the newly appointed CEO, Waddill Catchings, pushed for the creation of the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. The subsidiary invested in highly
"+ Taibbi, Matt. "The Great American Bubble Machine." Rolling Stone. Rolling Stone Magazine, 9 July 2009. Web. 01 Feb. 2014.
#( leveraged investment trusts and suffered heavy losses as the stock market collapsed. Goldman Sachs vowed to remain out of the asset management business. 1930 1969 After the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation losses, Waddill was forced to resign and replaced with Sidney Weinberg, who took over leadership as a senior partner and began building its investment banking operation. As a function of Goldmans partnership model, the Sachs family covered the entirety of the trading losses. Weinberg individually held 30% of the companys shares and proved to be pivotal to Goldmans pristine reputation in the mid-to-late 1900s. He began his tenure at Goldman by organizing the Business and Advisory Council for President Roosevelt in 1933, which helped bridge business and government during the New Deal. This was during the same time that that the Glass-Steagall Act was passed by Congress, which separated commercial and investment banks. Between 1942 and 1945, Weinberg took a brief break from Goldman to serve in the government as the chairman of the War Production Board where he would build many of the relationships that would soon become Goldman clients. To provide insight into the scale of Goldman Sachs during this period, the firm held just 1.4% market share in underwriting activities, but could soon look forward to a slew of underwriting mandates, including Ford Motor Cos IPO. Sidney Weinberg retired in 1969 but not without his hesitations of leaving Gus Levy a trader and not a banker, as had historically been senior partner. The topic was of great dissonance; with many partners believing that a trading mentality would shift Goldman Sachs form the trusted, client-focused reputation it had attained after decades of investment #) banking business. The clients Goldman acquired would continue to be from its investment banking activities, but with its trading business representing a greater proportion of the firms revenues vs. investment banking, traders began exuding greater influence within the firm. To help provide a balance, Levy would be appointed partner but a management committee was created comprised of individuals from across the firm bankers, traders, and even risk managers to oversee any senior partners decisions. Immediately after taking the reigns, Levy began bolstering the client trading business but steered clear of asset management, until Levys introduction of the Investment Management service. Throughout Sidney Weinbergs tenure at Goldman, he helped institute a culture that stuck with Goldman for many decades to come. A major component of this culture, and later the justification to avoid going public, was its partnership model. Partners were expected to put the firms interests above their own and nearly all of partners earnings were re-invested in the firm. When partners lost, they lost together. And when they won, their earnings we reinvested into the partnership model. Among the firms many axioms was one that emphasized leaving the firm in a reputationally and financially better position than the firm they had inherited. The composition of partners also wasnt limited to the front-office revenue generators. Partners included risk managers, back-office support staff, and viewed them as equally as the trading partner earning multiples more than they did. Partners were also discouraged from flashing their wealth, abiding by the mantra Wealth is for creation, not display. Partners earning millions of dollars a year lived in modest apartments and drove Fords to demonstrate their loyalty to the firms trusted client. And despite this difference in approach, potential recruits were eager to join the firm and were willing to forgo a meaningful amount of compensation (relative to other firms), for the prospects of one day attaining a famed partnership at Goldman. The partnership model was sacred and awed #+ across Wall Street, yet was inherently noble and emphasized client-service, not compensation. 1970 1990 This period began with the amendment of NYSE rules in 1970 allowing investment banks to consider pursuing an IPO. Merrill Lynch was the first investment bank to go public in 1971, while Goldman Sachs was facing its own domestic challenges. Mainly, the litigation that followed the bankruptcy of Penn Central Transportation, including $80 million of bonds that Goldman underwrote; the launch of its first office in London, its private wealth division, and its fixed income division, In the early 1970s, pursuing a public offering had yet to be seriously considered by the firm. At the time, the market was focused on hostile takeovers companies that were seeking to acquire target companies by approaching shareholders directly. Investment banks played an important role, representing both the acquirer and the target. Goldman Sachs emerged as the preeminent defense advisor opting to only represent the targets of hostile takeovers, further establishing the firms brand as a trusted partner. In 1976, John L. Weinberg (Sidney Weinbergs son) and John Whitehead were appointed senior partners following Levys death. Though both senior partners were from investment banking backgrounds, this didnt impede Goldmans explosive growth in its trading operations. As the firm grew larger and diversified its businesses, Whitehead drafted a set of 14 principles that Goldman identified as its core values. Famously, the list began with Our Client Interests Always Come First. In 1981, after Salomon Brothers went public and Goldman looked for continued venues for growth, it acquired J. Aron & Co,, merging it with the fixed income division. Lloyd #* Blankfein, who was a J.Aron employee, would later serve as CEO beginning in 2006. In the meantime, the firm would undergo unprecedented growth. Amidst the departure of Whitehead in 1985, Goldmans capital base was $1 billion, and since nearly every prominent investment bank had already gone public, Goldman seriously began debating the merits of a public offering. The sentiment internally that engaging in a public offering risked eroding the firms client-focused culture and would undermine the partnership model that Weinberg and his successors had spent creating enforcing. Instead, the firm opted to raise $500 million from a Japanese partner, Sumitomo Bank. With the new influx of capital, Goldman launched the Water Street Corporate Recovery Fund with the intention of investing its own capital alongside clients. After the launch of the fund, clients reacted furiously, threatening to boycott Goldmans trading desk after accusations of the banks abuse of conflicts of interest. In fact, the executives running the fund were from investment banking backgrounds, which alarmed clients who were concerned that Goldman would use proprietary investment banking information to benefit its investing arm. Despite the Water Street Corporate Recovery funds profitability, Goldman opted to shut down the fund. The dismantling of the fund sent a strong message that Goldman was dedicated to its clients and wouldnt compromise their interests in the pursuit of increased earnings. Another sign of the firms client-focus was in 1987 when Goldman had agreed to underwrite $100 million in debt for British Petroleum. After a global stock market crash where every other investment bank subsequently reneged on their underwriting obligations, Goldman opted to continue with its agreements, despite costing each partner millions of dollars each. #& The firm prided itself on acting beyond the legal line to a moral standard only its own partners could uphold. 1991 1999 The early 90s began with the bankruptcy of Drexel Burham Lambert, the fifth largest US investment bank at the time, due to Milkens insider trading allegations. At the same time, Goldman saw a shift in leadership, with Robin Rubin (trader) and Steve Friedman (investment banker) taking charge of the firm as co-senior partners. The backgrounds of the two CEOs was promising, signaling that Goldman would be emphasizing trading activities while continuing to focus on investment banking clients. However, just one year later in 1992, Rubin left to serve President Bill Clinton as his assistant on economic policy. Taking the firm public continued to be a point of discussion, having been seriously considered at least half a dozen times since the mid 1980s. 1994 was a transformative year for Goldman as the bank experienced first-hand the constraints of the partnership model. After a massive scam by media mogul Robert Maxwell, Goldman paid out $253 million in settlements, and as a result, a meaningful number of partners exited the partnership, taking their capital with them. One M&A banker even declined entry into the partnership, which was appalling to the other employees who had spent a decade working tirelessly at discounted compensation levels in hope of one day joining the partnership. In fact, many believed that the only incentive to keep their capital in the partnership was for the prospects of an IPO. In the same year, Steve Friedman retired as senior-partner just four years after taking the role, leaving Jon Corzine, with no experience in any division except trading, as sole-partner. Corzine, along with Hank Paulson, led the beginning of a large cost-reduction #, program, while limiting the withdrawal of partners capital. At the same time, proprietary trader Eric Mindich became the firms youngest partner at 27, showcasing the shift to trading activities. In 1996, with Corzine and Paulson pushing for less reliance on M&A activities, the firm aggressively expanded in international markets and proprietary investing and asset management. The IPO idea had been brought up again but turned down due to concerns of the impact on culture, moral obligation to future generations, and the attractiveness of the business model. Instead, in an effort to minimize defects of VPs to other investment banks that offered a more senior, managing director title (at Goldman, there was only VP and then Partner), the firm introduced a Managing Director title. Another signal of the shift in culture came a year later in 1997 when Hank Paulson (then promoted to Co-Senior Partner) reversed Goldmans long-standing policy of not advising on hostile takeovers. The IPO decision finally culminated in 1998 when despite significant pushback from former senior partners Johh Weiberg and John Whitehead, Goldmans partners voted to pursue an IPO. At the same time, Sandy Weill of Travelers announced intentions to lobby congress to repeal Glass-Steagall in an effort to ensure that the merger of Travelers and Citicorp that created Citigroup, would be consummated. Though the decision was pushed back several months due to a recession in Russia, the IPO was completed in 1999. Following the IPO, one more business principle was added: a commitment to provide superior returns to shareholder. As a sign of the shift, Goldman began taking new dot-com companies public with negative earnings and nominal revenues repealing its underwriting policy of only taking companies public if it had been in business for three years, with consistent profitability. $' 2000 2006 The early-to-mid 2000s brought forth a promising period for Goldman investors but signaled further deviation from its partnership culture. First, Paulson announced that the firm would be embarking on a mission to become the worlds premier securities firm, no longer limiting itself to client-oriented investment banking and trading activities. Paulson also made a bold claim that 15%-20% of the firms employees add 80% of the value. However, those same employees began defecting en masse once restricted IPO stock vested and opportunities in the alternative investing space became more attractive. As a result, the firm that once prided itself on modest pay in hopes of achieving something greater in the form of partnership status began having to retain employees with lavish pay packages, proliferating the star culture that the firm once relegated to less-sophisticated competitors. For instance, in 2006, the head of Goldmans Special Situations proprietary trading group earned $70 million, 1/3 more than the CEO, after threatening to leave to a hedge fund that promised more lucrative compensation. Second, conflicts of interest even within the M&A space became discernible and commonplace. In 2005, the firm represented both sides in the NYSE and Archipelago merger, earning a $100 million fee while blatantly being incentivized to ensure the consummation of the transaction. In the same year, Peter Weinberg, nephew of John Weinberg, left the firm in order to start a new M&A investment bank, Perella Weinberg, with former Morgan Stanley investment banker Joe Perella. Weinberg would later cite the investment banks riddled conflicts of interests and internal agenda as the catalyst for starting Perella Weinberg.
$" 2007 Present In 2006 the firm made a decision to proprietarily short the housing market but still acted as counterparty to investors that sought to take the other side of the bet, in some cases even advising investors to do so. In 2007 this bet helped the firm earn a record $11.6 billion of profits. A year later in 2008, when the mortgage market collapsed, Goldman was pressured to turn into a bank holding company and accept a $10 billion investment from the governments TARP (Troubled Asset Recovery Program) fund. In 2010, the firms decision to pursue the other side of the mortgage market came under scrutiny when trader Fabrice Tourre had allegedly failed to inform clients that Abacus, the investment they were being pushed to go long on, was designed as a portfolio for John Paulsons investment fund to short. Traders had also provided their own internal views on the security, citing it as a business that is totally dead and further claiming that the poor little subprime borrowers will not last too long!!! 17
Amidst the crash, several pieces of regulation, including the Dodd-Frank Reform that mandated proprietary trading restrictions, effectively limited Goldmans capital in proprietary trading activities to 3% of the firms business. Despite vowing to abide by regulation set forth, the firm became globally vilified as a symbol for the greed and excess prevalent in Wall Street, which became the sole focus for the Occupy Wall Street movement in 2012. Further exacerbating the disdain was Greg Smiths New York Times op-ed announcing his resignation from the firm, citing conflicts of interest, a changing culture, and a muted focus on client interest.
"* "The Case Against Fabrice Tourre." The New York Times. The New York Times, 08 July 2013. Web. 02 Mar. 2014.
$# Reflections
In the firms pursuits to grow as the worlds preeminent securities firm, the company has more recently found itself crossing legal and ethical lines. One could argue that the reputational change was beyond the firms control. For instance, if the firm hadnt began exploring alternative business lines, it wouldnt have been able to grow partners capital at a sustainable pace and the firm would risk imploding due to the increasing number of firms rapidly expanding during the same time period. One could also argue that by using its balance sheet to avoid the turbulence in the mortgage market was Goldman able to earn its partners and shareholders a return on their investment when nearly every other investment bank had faced much more dire straits. The original business principles were designed to help guide the firm through the difficult balance of short-term and long-term success. However, as the firm began to grow in the late 1990s, the focus became narrowly short-term; as in, how do we ensure we capitalize or avoid this current circumstance? Another alarming change is the firms push to abide by the legal constraints of the law, as opposed to the ethical constraints of the partnership. When John Weinberg decided the firm would continue with its promise to underwrite BP debt, he did so not because the firm was legally obligated to Weinbergs family was set to lose $33 million from the transaction but because it was in the clients and therefore the firms best long-term interests. On the other hand, when Goldman viciously defended itself against the SECs allegations against the firm and Fabrice Tourre had misled clients, it responded by claiming it had no legal obligation to inform clients of its conflicts of interests. $$ Goldman Sachs has exemplified many of the changes that the modern day corporation has faced. Mainly, the focus on the short-term has created a cycle that dismisses the opportunity for long-term success, or in other words, the ability to remain long-term greedy. The change in Goldman Sachs and Wall Street culture reverberates across every company that retains investment bankers, not as their best friends but instead counterparties that they have to be careful around. And when companies take a reactive approach, having to find a response to appease the analysts that control a companys fate, then its understandable why companies opt for a short-term solution instead of a set of proactive plans that seek to be as long-term greedy as their advisors once were. The Problem
There exists a deep rooted and intrinsic flaw in todays capital markets system, as it relies on the approval of research analysts to validate a companys business model. Not customers, investors or growth, but research analysts that were initially considered only one of many ways to obtain independent views in attempts analyze a companys valuation. Companies forgo long-term growth to achieve quarterly success success that is principally determined by the independent views of research analysts. Those views should remain independent and be one of many tools used to analyze the success of a company. The pressure that companies face to meet quarterly earnings hinders its ability to make long- term, strategic decisions. The Importance of Research Analysts
Prior to the dot-com boom, institutional investors had extensive experience investing in large, blue chip, Fortune 100 companies that based their value on free cash flows, $( tangible assets, and a clear growth trajectory. Imagine their concern when in the early 2000s companies emerged that were growing exponentially, yet were impossible to value using any traditional method of valuation. Benjamin Graham, renowned value investor, based his entire investment thesis on valuing companies as a function of Current Assets Total Liabilities. These high-flying tech stocks not only had virtually zero current assets, but they had enormous amounts of liabilities and were dramatically outpacing the growth of traditional old-line companies. These tech stocks earned nominal revenues, negative profitability, and lacked a valid business model, but were worth billions of dollars. Their value was validated through the combined efforts of management optimism and research analysts who supposedly found a way to value these companies based solely on future growth. For any institutional investor that was accustomed to traditional methods of valuation, their primary source of valuation became the research analysts. These analysts, through an intimate understanding of the industry and relationships with key CEOs were relied on to provide a basis for valuing these esoteric, unprofitable companies. This view was further proliferated by individuals like Jack Grubman, who obtained inside information from CEOs in exchange for positive ratings information he published in research reports that earned him the trust of institutional investors. Grubman went on to earn accolades for his purported expertise, and thus investors placed greater confidence in the belief that research analysts held the answers to valuation. These prescient views turned out to be entirely on the basis of arbitrary assumptions and inside information. Prior to this era, companies that missed earnings targets were able to rely on their long-term investors offering them the benefit of the doubt because of their intimate understanding of the company and its management team, as well as a clear understanding of its future strategic plans. But in the dot-com boom, companies proliferated with no track $) records, and no clear roadmap for the future; therefore, the main basis for a companys valuation was the research analyst, and a company that missed earnings was instantly doomed for failure. To help mitigate this, CEOs of these companies often leaked their earnings results to analysts ahead of their earnings calls, ensuring that the analysts estimated results in line with what they would deliver. In the cases that they didnt meet estimates, they were penalized with a significant decline in share price. Due to the implications that missing earnings targets had on a companys share price including its owners personal wealth, its ability to garner trust from investors, suppliers and customers, and its ability to grow and compete companies like Worldcom went to great extents to prevent share prices declines, in any way possible, including manipulating financial statements. 18
Providing inside information to a research analyst has always been illegal, and though our system has ridden itself of outright crime, the overarching culture in the industry hasnt changed. Companies still go to great extents to meet analyst guidance and those that fail to do so are punished with a hammered share price. Though the stakes arent as high any more, the outcomes are material and consequently impact the way companies think of their long-term plans.
Why Private Companies Work
Public companies possess investor bases that comprise a breadth of retail and institutional investors. On the other hand, a private equity funds LPs are generally comprised exclusively of sophisticated institutional and high-net-worth investors. Private
"& "Worldcom's Ex-boss Gets 25 Years." BBC News. BBC, 13 July 2005. Web. 03 Feb. 2014.
$+ equity firms are able to make decisions based on the five-year life of a fund and are able to trust that their sophisticated investors are able to weather short-term fluctuations in performance, and are willing to stand-by the company for capital infusions in the future, if necessary. Public companies have the fiduciary responsibility to provide long-term shareholder value, and private equity firms have a fiduciary responsibility to maximize investor returns. Though the objectives are similar, the public markets have proven to be less tolerant to any blips that a company faces, and also less likely to favor long-term strategies that are based on the performance of several variables, beyond simply ensuring quarterly earnings are met. This focus on quarterly earnings has prevailed across public equity markets and appears to be a structural issue that requires further analysis before a solution can be proposed. A recent Harvard Business Review report analyzed how an investor behaves when a company chooses not to release earnings guidance. According to HBR, when CEOs dont deliver a concise, informative message on quarterly results, investors assume the worst and the stock is typically punished as a result. 19 Another HBR article on earnings guidance discussed the positive effect that releasing guidance has the increased transparency helps fill the void of uncertainty by setting realistic expectations, and as a result, investors reward such behaviour. 20 HBR suggests that share prices decline when investors dont have a clear understanding of managements message; therefore, this leads one to believe that the key issue is transparency. Management has just one chance a quarter to update
", Fox, Justin. "HBR Blog Network." Harvard Business Review. HBR Global Edition, 24 Jan. 2012. Web. 02 Oct. 2013. #' Lev, Baruch. "November 2011." Harvard Business Review. HBR Global Edition, 2011. Web. 02 Oct. 2013.
$* investors on their plans and strategy. Outside of this quarterly update, opportunities dont exist for management to explain their plans. The opaqueness concerning performance leads investors to seek the guidance of research analysts to help build a thesis on the companys performance. Thus, CEOs feel the mounting pressure to meet results during the one of just four times a year when management is scrutinized. Two possible solutions exist. First, perhaps sharing progress and plans on a more consistent, timely manner would avert unwarranted expectations and help management control the flow of information. More often than not, research analysts base their target price and expectations on internal models in an effort to correct or provide further insight into managements own guidance often weeks or months outdated. If management were to use sources such as their own investor page, journalists, or social media to convey their objectives and progress, they can convey their own message and in the process, eliminate arbitrary expectations while helping management realize their own targets and acknowledge when theyve failed to meet them. This proposed process is analogous to the hands-on approach that private equity firms adopt by setting specific goals and then thoroughly monitoring the progress of the set goals. In turn, this would help investors see a companys progress on a long-term, holistic basis. Second, another major issue arises with the need for companies to attain long-term, patient capital, predominantly from pension funds, as opposed to day traders. Companies go public in an effort to seek a permanent source of capital. As an example, Goldman Sachs switched from a partnership model to a public company to ensure capital for growth and risky activities. $& As indicated in the case study on the firm, Goldman Sachs underwent a major change in culture following its IPO. The firm is now less likely to live by its mantra long-term greedy in order to meet quarterly estimates. Though it was the culmination of years of debating and dissonance, an event in 1994 cemented the decision to go public. Goldman had taken the wrong side of an interest rate trade and lost hundreds of millions, which subsequently led to many high profile partners pulling capital out of the partnership, leaving traders dry. Till that point, the partnership model had worked to ensure that Goldman Sachs both had the required capital to grow as well as the ability to keep a long-term perspective in mind, as stewards of the capital. Examples
Several institutions have realized the risks of the short-term behaviour and have offered their perspectives on changing the short-term sentiment. McKinsey published a report in 2008 that examined the performance of pubic versus private companies. Though public companies were applauded for their superior governance and management development, the report suggested that private equity-owned boards are viewed as more effective overall due to their stronger strategic leadership, performance oversight, and management of key stakeholders. 21
In lieu of its public offering in 1997, Amazons Jeff Bezos stated its all about the long-term and in an interview in 2011, Bezos discussed that when a company operates on a three-year timeframe, there tends to be a lot of competition; however, when competing in
#" "Insights & Publications." The Voice of Experience: Public versus Private Equity. McKinsey & Co., Dec. 2008. Web. 04 Nov. 2013.
$, a 5-7 year timeframe, you compete against a fraction of those companies because very few companies are willing to take longer term approaches to shareholder value. 22
Over the last five years, Amazon has increased its revenue and EBITDA by a CAGR of 57% and 74%, respectively. The share price has also increased 452% in the last five years, which is 4x greater than the index it trades on. Amazon has been able to achieve this success by focusing very minimally on earnings growth, in many cases, slashing margins for the sake of market share to establish a long-term foothold in an industry. Unilevers chief claimed American-style capitalism is broken. To help implement change, Unilever has aligned management incentives for the long-term and invested in R&D. The CEO has also refused to issue quarterly guidance, under the belief that since companies dont operate on a 90-day cycle for investment, marketing, or advertising purposes, they just as equally shouldnt for reporting purposes. The day Unilever announced they would be cutting guidance; the share price declined amidst investor uncertainty, but quickly rose by 35% thereafter. 23
According to Ben Horowitz, former HP employee and venture capital partner at Andreesen Horowitz, he found that during his time at HP, businesses were run with intensely strict revenue and margin targets. The divisions that were able to make their numbers did so by underfunding their R&D and according to Horowitz, this dramatically weakened their long-term competitive position and set them up for future disaster. The
## Jackson, Eric. "6 Things Jeff Bezos Knew Back in 1997 That Made Amazon a Gorilla."Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 16 Nov. 2011. Web. 29 Sept. 2013. #$ "Time to Put an End to the Cult of Shareholder ValueAdd to ..." The Globe and Mail. N.p., 26 Sept. 2013. Web. 28 Sept. 2013.
(' pursuit of ensuring that a company will provide consistent and predictable results can certainly be achieved, but almost always at the expense of long-term success. 24
Potential Solutions
With the right incentives in place, management can provide activist / private equity services in-house. As opposed to a large private-equity fund acquiring a company at a 20% or greater premium, levering it up, conducting operational improvements, resulting in a 20%-30% annual return, a public firm can do that entirely by themselves by simply operating with the same principles that a private equity firm does. In fact, there isnt anything that a private equity firm is able to offer that a public company cant. The public company has access to the same capital, same operational improvements, and same performance metrics that a private equity firm has. And because it doesnt need to pay a 20% or greater premium, its returns can be even higher. In order to structurally improve our capitalist system and avoid the systemic issues mentioned throughout this report, several changes will be considered. These changes, in unison, should help remove the short-termism prevalent in the modern day company. Mandated Compensation Structures
In the current landscape of public companies, there is no standard basis for compensation, nor any requirement for management to own a minimum equity stake in the company. Lacking a standard for compensation is tenable given the varied financial profiles
#( Horowitz, Ben. The Hard Thing about Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answers. N.p.: n.p., n.d. Print.
(" of companies in different industries. For instance, it is much more likely for a nascent tech company to issue its management team equity than it is for a large industrials company. Currently, the solution to align management interests with shareholders has been to award a proportion of compensation in options or company shares. In this model, management is incentivized to increase the share price as it correspondingly increases their personal wealth, and accordingly benefits shareholders. The rationale is this: if management does a good job running the company, earnings will increase beyond Wall Street expectations, the share price will increase, and everyone is happy. However, according to a recent study conducted at Stanford GSB, the merits of equity ownership lack soundness and are susceptible to abuse. First, management teams very rarely purchase equity stakes with their personal wealth. Instead, their stakes are almost exclusively amassed through awarded options. Second, modest evidence indicates that equity ownership is positively correlated with share price appreciation. In cases with large ownership positions (25% - 50%), evidence suggests it actually leads to lower valuations. The study also found suspicious trading activity that suggests the abuse of insider information. 25 Though the SECs blackout period helps mitigate this, the potential for abuse still exists. Moreover, simply awarding management equity doesnt solve the underlying concern over managements focus on quarterly EPS in fact, it exacerbates it. When a CEOs personal wealth is tied to the performance of the stock price, which is inextricably linked to the companys ability to meet EPS numbers, the company is likely to face even greater pressure to meet quarterly earnings.
#) Larcker, David. "Executive Equity Ownership." Center for Leadership Development & Research. Stanford GSB, 2011. Web. 03 Mar. 2014. (# According to HBS, private equity boards are more informed, hands-on, and interventionist than public company boards. 26 The private equity approach to this issue is focused on accountability, and two approaches have proved successful and scalable to public companies: 1) Performance metrics; and 2) Management compensation. First, instead of waiting 90-days to assess results of a single number, private equity firms measure management teams on a slew of realistic performance metrics that extend beyond EPS to cost savings as a %, revenue growth, capital allocation targets, among others. These goals are both short and long-term and very clearly conveyed to management. Private equity professionals request monthly reports form companies and often engage with management on a weekly, and sometimes, daily basis with the intention of enabling a consistent dialogue with management. Furthermore, results arent measured solely on the monthly or quarterly reports, but instead over a longer-horizon to reflect the time required to implement meaningful, long-term turnaround or growth strategies. Second, private equity funds adopt a meritocratic approach to compensation and employee retention. Managements compensation is based on whether theyve been able to meet broad metrics concerning the companys financial profile and operating improvements. Management is also rewarded a step-up in compensation if performing above hurdles. The hurdles as well as the step-up in compensation are clearly outlined. Managers and employees that fail to meet targets are quick to be terminated and replaced. Conversely, because net income isnt the only determinant for success, management is much more
#+ "Learning from Private-Equity Boards." HBS Working Knowledge. Harvard Business School, 17 Jan. 2017. Web. 05 Feb. 2014.
($ likely to pursue broader goals on the five-to-ten year horizon PE funds run, as opposed to resorting to lay-offs to meet EPS targets. Public markets should ensure that companies implement compensation plans that more closely align with shareholders with inspiration from the private-equity model, beginning with the consideration of compensation. Instead of awarding options set at discounted values, management should receive a considerable proportion of compensation through Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) that vest over a period of 1, 5, and 10 years. The number of stock units received should also be a reflection of the companys performance based on the variety of metrics previously mentioned, not solely EPS. Management compensation and methods used to award should be publicly disclosed. By developing a sound ration for compensation and awarding management with shares that vest over a prolonged period of time, much of the concern around excessive compensation and potential for abuse will be mitigated. Management should also be obligated to hold a minimum portion of their wealth in the companys shares. Though this recommendation risks further shifting managements attention on quarterly earnings, rethinking earnings guidance, discussed below, can eliminate this concern. Abandon Earnings Guidance
Instead of solely offering investors quarterly guidance, management should offer greater transparency in a range of metrics. By providing more frequent goals that extend beyond simple EPS guidance, management can outline a long-term plan that is measured based on both quantitative and qualitative measures of long-term added value. As previously mentioned, HBR suggests that share prices decline when investors lack a solid gauge on managements message. By focusing their message on those investors focused (( on the long-term, management may be able to rid themselves of traders attempting to earn a quick return before exiting the investment. At the same time, companies need to be careful to not disclose things that will benefit their competitors. When the pressure from analysts every quarter is stripped away, companies can focus on the long-term and conversely, do what the capitalist system intended: make mistakes. When there is no quarterly guidance offered and the only shareholders remaining are the long-term investors, then a company can afford to make mistakes, learn from them, and accordingly adapt and grow. At the same time, publishing long-term goals keeps management in check and forces them to act like owners of the business. Given that buying a share in a company implies ownership, adopting a view that only considers arbitrary estimates of EPS is negligent. Metrics in the form of revenue growth, customer loyalty and more broadly, progress made towards long-term goals would allow investors to determine a companys value by making an informed decision on a companys holistic prospects. Lock-up Structure on Public Equities
Today, an investor can purchase a security in the public market on a Monday and sell it the following Wednesday. Conversely, an investor purchasing a security through an M&A transaction is likely to hold the company into perpetuity or at minimum, for 5-10 years. Months or years of due diligence is conducted and once the ownership stake is acquired in the target, great measures are instituted by the acquirer to ensure the companys success. A shareholder in a public company that enters on a Monday and shortly after exits the transaction should be considered a trader, not investor, as they simply put downward pressure on the stock, usually without merit. Short-term micro concerns, external factors, () and rumours shouldnt be a basis for exiting an investment, yet its those investors that skew a companys ability to remain focused on their main goal: providing long-term shareholder value. If a lock-up period was instituted on public equities, shareholders would become much more focused on the long-term and act accordingly. This structure would imply that any investment in public equity must be held for a minimum duration of one year. Therefore, day-to-day concerns wouldnt affect a shareholder. This model can be built out further for instance, if an investor would like to acquire 5% or greater of the companys outstanding shares, the lock-up period perhaps increases to two years. This helps protect the company against activist investors that acquire large stakes to exert influence and then exit after a short-term increase in share price. Instead it promotes that investors acquire large and controlling positions in companies that they believe will prosper over an extended period of time. In December 2012 Dan Loeb published a report claiming that his fund had taken a long position in Herbalife after conductive extensive due diligence and deemed it to be a good long-term pick, with a price target of $70 an increase of 75% over its share price at the time. Shortly after the stock rose to $55 due to the research report he published, he exited the investment generating a considerable return. 27 If Loeb was forced to hold the company for five years, he might think twice before amassing a large position to capture a quick monetary profit.
#* Celarier, Michelle. "Loebs 'long-term' Herbalife Investment Lasted Only 16 days." Loebs Longterm Herbalife Investment Lasted Only 16days. New York Post, 12 Nov. 2013. Web. 22 Dec. 2013.
(+ Prohibit Outside Institutions From Speaking to Management
Much of the exuberance that existed during the dot-com boom was due to insider information that analysts obtained from proprietary information that either belonged to other parts of the banks, or management themselves. Following the barring of Grubman, the Conflict Wall regulation is now in place, restricting research analysts and investment bankers from interacting with each other. The Conflict Wall ensures that analysts base their estimates solely on objective information available to the public, and not proprietary information accessed through the banks investment banking arm. Despite this regulation, every public company still employs a large investor relations teams to engage in dialogue with research analysts and potential investors. Therefore, if only one of two of the original catalysts for the research analysts criminal behavior has been resolved, the potential for abuse still exists. If the dialogue between analysts and management were to taper off, research would become what it was originally intended to be: unbiased views of a company that should be used as just one of many tools to analyze a companys performance. Furthermore, research analysts would have the same information available to them as investors. The retail investor would no longer have to worry about asymmetric information, due to their minority stake in a security. Implementing this would level the playing field and help mitigate much of the insider trading that is prevalent today. Remove the Role of Sell-Side Research
Removing the role of a research analyst entirely would eliminate conflicts of interests and force buy-side investors to conduct extensive due diligence before taking a position in (* an investment. The role of research analysts at a sell-side firm has evolved since the dot- com boom. Because of the Conflict Wall, research is no longer used to generate investment banking revenue through positive ratings, but is still meaningfully used to generate fees. For instance, many mid-sized companies wont engage a banks investment banking service if research analysts at the bank dont cover the companys stock. Often, a research analyst will initiate coverage in an attempt to show the company that the bank understands the firm and its operations. This is misleading because the investment bankers attempting to generate fees are prohibited from engaging with the research analysts. Still, in order for a company to trust that a bank believes in them, they often look for the bank to offer coverage on its stock. Despite the laws surrounding sell-side research in investment banks, the industry is still prone to conflicts of interest. The vast majority of all sell-side research is published with a positive rating, with a small portion allocated to neutral / sell ratings as a result of SEC laws mandating the disclosure of the percentage of sell ratings. Todays research analyst is not the same as the pre-Conflict Wall research analyst. Compensation has changed drastically, as research analysts are no longer paid as a percentage of investment banking revenues, but instead the compensation scheme is in a much narrower band and based on institutional feedback. Therefore, many of the top research analysts are leaving for buy-side funds, where their views extend beyond buy or hold, because their own capital is at risk and the incentives are such that they are rewarded for sell / short ratings. The existing talent that remains within the research arms of investment banks is still subject to appeasing clients by rarely providing negative feedback. This structure doesnt provide the honest, transparent analysis that should be a fundamental part of every investment decision. (& Removing sell-side research ensures that potential investors conduct their own research based on information that is available to everyone. And if professional assistance is required, that it come from a truly independent source. Rating agencies, for instance, measure the financial profiles of companies yet arent run out of investment banks. They operate as separate entities in order to ensure their objectivity. Research should be viewed in the same light, as there remains very little justification for providing the service from within the bowels of an investment bank. Final Thoughts
Famed value investor Benjamin Graham once said, In the short-run, the market is a voting machine but in the long-run it is a weighing machine. 28 Is it rational to base a companys going-concern value on its ability to meet earnings estimates? In our current system, its the standard; and this standard erodes the long-term prospects of the modern day company by focusing singularly on quarterly estimates. Organizations have increasingly realized the detrimental effect this thinking is having on companies, yet very few have sought to seek change. Certain anomalies such as Amazon and Unilever exist, but on a broad scale, companies succumb to stakeholder pressures. Is it worth it to invest $100 million in capital expenditures when the non-cash flow based depreciation will adversely impact your earnings? Is it worth it to hire a team of employees to build out R&D plans that may not materialize for several years? In both cases, when earnings are a companys principal concern, the focus shifts to short-termism.
#& Graham, Benjamin. The Intelligent Investor. New York: Harper, 1959. Print.
(, The capitalist system is based on a set of values that encourages risktaking, yet after a company achieves a certain size; those values are replaced with conservative approaches to appease shareholders. Long-term projects and acquisitions are untenable if they fail to provide short-term accretion. This laser-focused short-term mindset risks undermining the same culture that helped build the formidable institutions in our stock exchanges. An industry with $2 trillion of capital exists with the premise that by operating public companies as private companies, returns in excess of 20% can be achieved. In fact, the ten-year return in private equity is 10%, while public markets returned just 5.8% 29 . As Mr. Ackman extolled, the strategies that private equity firms adopt are available to any public company that wishes to adopt them. Adopting principles from private-equity firms would help replace our short-termism with a longer-term horizon for making key strategic decisions. Investing in R&D and capital expenditures, hiring employees for long-term future projects, basing decisions on strategy and not just earnings - all of these are based processes that help instill a long-term view and allow companies to make decisions to ensure its vitality in the next decade, not just the next quarter. Yet these processes are limited to private-equity backed companies. It is therefore imperative that a structural change is made in the way the modern-day company operates. Private equity-backed firms shouldnt be the only ones to aspire to 20% returns. With a structural change premised on the solutions above, companies of varying size can implement the processes required to ensure long-term success.
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