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6/2/2014 Carbon Plan Puts Democrats in Coal States on the Defensive - NYTimes.

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U.S. | NYT NOW
Carbon Plan Puts Democrats in Coal States on
the Defensive
By TRIP GABRIEL JUNE 2, 2014
LEXINGTON, Ky. The Obama administrations proposal for sharp cuts
to emissions from power plants complicates the midterm elections this fall
for Democrats, especially since some of the battleground states for control
of the Senate are tied to the coal economy.
Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democrat who is challenging Senator
Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader, here in the most high-
profile Senate race this year, has already been portraying herself as a
friend of coal and a sharp critic of Mr. Obama.
On Monday, Ms. Grimes pledged to fiercely oppose the presidents
attack on Kentuckys coal industry if elected.
Natalie E. Tennant, a Democrat running for an open seat in West
Virginia, struck a similar tone.
I will stand up to President Obama, Gina McCarthy, and anyone else
who tries to undermine our coal jobs, she said Monday, referring to the
head of the Environmental Protection Agency, which is proposing the
emissions regulation.
The regulation takes aim at the largest source of carbon pollution in
the United States, the nations more than 600 coal-fired power plants.
Experts say it could close hundreds of the plants.
Republicans quickly seized on the fact that coal provides the majority
of electricity in half a dozen states with hard-fought Senate races,
6/2/2014 Carbon Plan Puts Democrats in Coal States on the Defensive - NYTimes.com
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including Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Montana and West
Virginia.
The stakes are clear, Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican
National Committee, said last week, adding that a vote for the Democratic
senatorial candidate in Kentucky, Virginia or West Virginia is a vote in
support of President Obamas war on coal.
But the issue is likely to play differently state by state, and in some
cases the presidents aggressive action against greenhouse gas emissions
may benefit Democrats who tap into voter sentiment for addressing
climate change.
The war on coal cry was a losing issue for Republicans in the race
last year for governor of Virginia, which has significant coal mining, and
which elected a Democrat.
People on the Republican side overestimate the feelings for this and
on our side, Democrats are scared for no reason, said Andrew Baumann,
a Democratic pollster. Some Democrats assume anything about global
warming is a political loser. And thats just not the case.
He identified races in Colorado and Iowa, with growing renewable
energy sectors, where confronting global warming can help the
Democratic candidate in hard-fought Senate contests if they play it
correctly.
In battlegrounds such as Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia,
where the president is deeply unpopular, the challenge is greater.
Representative Nick J. Rahall II of West Virginia, one of the most
vulnerable Democrats in Congress this year, took to the House floor last
week to pre-emptively denounce the Environmental Protection Agency,
which drafted the proposed carbon regulations. The only real question is
where on a scale from devastating to a death blow the new rule will fall,
he said.
As the presidents health care measure, the Affordable Care Act, loses
some of its potency as a Republican issue, with voters increasingly saying
they would rather fix the law than replace it, climate regulations could
6/2/2014 Carbon Plan Puts Democrats in Coal States on the Defensive - NYTimes.com
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gain ground as an issue. An outside group supporting Mr. McConnell,
Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, has spent $800,000 on TV ads that
attempt to elevate coal to the importance of health care in attacks on Ms.
Grimes, according to Kantar Media/CMAG, which tracks political
advertising. Obamacare; the war on coal: thats Obamas agenda, one ad
says.
As a lesson in the potency of the coal issue in Kentucky, Republicans
point to what happened in the states Sixth Congressional District two
years ago.
Andy Barr, a Republican, defeated a popular four-term Democrat,
Ben Chandler, with a focused attack portraying Mr. Chandler as anti-coal
because of his vote in Mr. Obamas first term in support of a national cap-
and-trade bill (it was defeated in the Senate). Mr. Chandler was called a
low life in ads featuring a man in coal miners gear.
The message resonated even though there is not a single coal mining
job in the Sixth District, which includes Lexington, and even as coal
mining employment is at a historic low for reasons unrelated to
environmental regulation: competition from cheaper natural gas and the
mechanization of mining.
Mr. Barr argued that Kentucky manufacturers, who create jobs,
depend on coal for low electricity rates. He also tapped into the cultural
affinity many Kentuckians feel for the coal industry, part of the states
heritage.
2014 The New York Times Company

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