For November 16th 2009

Questions and suggestions? Contact me at market.techspeak@gmail.com

Any information contained in this document are based on or derived from information generally available to
the public from sources believed to be reliable. There’s no representation or warranty is made or implied that
it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This post has been
prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any
instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.

CFD charts were generated using MetaTrader 4.0 with price data obtained from Google Finance.
Beta numbers are obtained from Reuters.com.
 EURUSD

EURUSD rallied instead last Monday, contrary to my expectation. The pair peaked at 1.5048 on
Wednesday before it got pushed back towards 1.4820, retracing 50% of the gains since 1.4625.
Friday also had the pair attempting to rally again, but so far it managed to reach 1.4937 before it
settled the day and the week at 1.4901. Support at around the 50% retracement seems to hold
well for now.

Assuming that the recent drop to 1.4820 was merely a correction, EURUSD is seen returning to the
upside area, attempting to break 1.5048/1.5059 resistance before it aims at 1.5255. If we look at
the weekly chart, the price has re-entered its rising price channel after previously knocked out off it
sometime ago. At the moment, the smaller channel top lies at 1.5255, but the larger channel has it
at around lower 1.5900s. So, will the dollar rout resumes? We shall see that next week.

As for now, while above 1.4820, aim for the 1.5255, but should the support is broken, this would
imply that the structure from 1.5059 has been of a flat correction and that a revisit of 1.4625 is
likely to be seen later.
 GBPUSD

GBPUSD hit the expected objective at 1.6830 nicely and immediately last Monday. Subsequently
knocked off the high, the pair fell to as low as 1.6514 before it renewed its strength on Friday.
Similar to EURUSD, cable outlook also implies that the greenback’s rout is set to continue in the
coming sessions. Resistances have been pinpointed at 1.6830-1.6870 where various retracement
and projection levels intertwined, then upon successfully eliminating the yellow area, the next
objectives will be 1.7041, 1.7093 and later 1.7235.

The downside is to be guarded by 1.6514, 1.6482, 1.6398 and 1.6261. Below 1.6514 will suggest
that the correction from 1.6842 peak is still in progress and a maximum drop to 1.6261 is to be
expected. Only below 1.6261 however, the bearish pressure will set in and drag the cable back
below 1.6000 handle.

For now, stay bullish while above 1.6514 and look to enter long position on a dip. Suggested stop
will be below 1.6514, while the targets are 1.6842 and up to above 1.7.
 USDJPY

It was not until Thursday that the corrective rally that was expected last week materialized as
USDJPY hit 90.60 but only after it dropped to 89.28. The new swing low set another zigzag structure
downwards (91.30-89.28-90.60) aiming at 89.35, 88.57 and 87.32. The swing point high at 90.60
will be the critical resistance next week.

The bearish outlook in USDJPY also supports the notion that the greenback is now the weakest
currency and that the key low at 88.00 will eventually be revisited or even broken in the coming
week.

Look to enter short upon corrective rally with stop set above 90.60. Objectives could be set at the
mentioned support levels. Above 90.60 will trigger a return move towards 92.00-92.40 area and
possibly higher.
 Advantest Corp. (TYO:6857)

Beta: 1.36

We are returning to the first stock that I’ve analyzed back then in late October: Advantest. Since
the last analysis, the stock had fallen as expected, hitting ¥1,923 (1.618x fibo projection) this
week, slightly lower than the expected target of ¥1,950. It managed to go as high as ¥2,410, so
this should provide some room to short at ¥2,401 resistance level.

On the daily chart, Friday’s low at ¥1,923 could set off a double bottom pattern should the stock
rallies past ¥2,070. This pattern bears the projected target of ¥147 above ¥2,070 or ¥2,217, just a
tad lower of ¥2,222, the 50% retracement level. In addition, the daily MACD is rising although the
weekly MACD is still falling. This suggests that the current rise may be corrective. Once completed,
the subsequent fall may take Advantest below ¥1,923 towards ¥1,772 or even ¥1,590.

Although an immediate drop may not be likely in the short-term, anyone trying to capture the
corrective rally towards ¥2,222 may want to set a tight stop below ¥1,923. After all, from the risk-
to-reward perspective, it’s a good trade setup. Another setup will be to enter short on an
immediate break of ¥1,923 at the risk of entering too low. This second option will require a stop
above ¥2,070. The third option is to wait for the corrective rally to reach either ¥2,151 or ¥2,222
before taking a short position. The least favorable option would be to wait for a break of ¥2,070
before entering long. It is unfavorable because it heightens the risk by entering 100 points higher
than the current price.
 Bank of China Ltd. (HKG:3988)

Beta: 0.82

BoC is one more step closer to erase all its losses since it started falling in 2007. The 2007’s peak
at 5.27 is now nearby and Friday’s rally may set up a follow through towards it.

Thursday’s low will be the near-term support (4.66) while the closest resistance lies at 5.03, the
equivalent projection target. Once this is cleared, the focus will shift towards 5.27 and then 5.49,
the 1.618x projection target. The downside is guarded by 4.28, 3.93, 3.61, and 3.36. Since BoC set
higher pivot highs and pivot lows until now, the first critical pivot will be 4.28. Only below this will
suggest that the rally has been completed.

At the moment, look to enter long with stop set below 4.28, and targeting at 5.03, 5.27, and 5.49.
Not ideal from risk-to-reward perspective, but setting 4.66 as the crucial pivot point would be too
premature right now. Nevertheless, should the long trade is to be opened, the stop itself could be
adjusted to be just below 4.66 once the target at 5.03 is reached.
 Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk. (JSX:ANTM)

Beta: 1.36

Aneka Tambang bounced near its trendline support on Friday and settled the day at 2275. While
the upside is seen capped by 2400, another attempt upwards seems to be building up. Either this
will end in another failure at or near 2400, thereby forming a triangle, or that the stock will finally
break the resistance and rally towards 2475. Overall, the structure of the wave since 2100 low
seems corrective and thus I expect the stock is still vulnerable to a slide back towards 2100 or
even lower to 2000.

For now, as long as ANTM remains locked inside the 2100-2400 range, expect the stock to continue
forming its triangular pattern which is now is likely to be in its final leg-5. Afterwards, unless it
could clear its way above 2400, a drop below 2100 to resume the slide is to be expected. Look to
short near 2400 for the continuation of the fall, set the stop above 2475.
 United Tractors Tbk (JSX:UNTR)

Beta: 1.41

Stalling at 16100 recently, UNTR ended Friday in a doji candle after it retraced 38.2% of its rise
from 14200 to 16100. The recent high at 16100 itself was the 76.4% retracement level of the fall
from 16750 to 14200. Therefore, somehow the Fibonacci numbers have played quite a good role in
calculating the support and resistance points here.

Weekly MACD is still falling although the daily MACD is rising, but it is likely that the second leg of a
larger zigzag correction had ended at 16100 and that the next directional bias is down, with
targets seen at 14500 (0.618x projection), 13550 (1x) and as far as 12000 (1.618x). Nearby
supports can be found at the retracement points of the swing from 14200-16100 at 15400, 15150,
and 14950. In addition to these technical points, the entire rise from 2350 to 16750 itself had its
own retracement points at 13350 (23.6%) and 11250 (38.2%).

Hence, for next week as long as the top at 16100 remains solid, look to short with the objectives
set at the aforementioned technical support levels. Stop could be set above 16100 or 16750
depending on the one’s risk tolerance level.
 MARKET DATA – November 13th 2009
JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 Open High Low Close Prv Dy Dy Chg Prv Wk Wk Chg
Advantest Corp. 1,923 1,979 1,923 1,975 1,941 1.75% 1,967 0.41%
Canon Inc. 3,410 3,450 3,390 3,420 3,410 0.29% 3,410 0.29%
Daikin Industries Ltd. 3,230 3,280 3,220 3,250 3,270 -0.61% 3,090 5.18%
Honda Motor Co. Ltd 2,905 2,935 2,870 2,900 2,905 -0.17% 2,800 3.57%
Kyocera Corp 7,310 7,380 7,230 7,290 7,370 -1.09% 7,530 -3.19%
Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd 1,334 1,346 1,318 1,337 1,343 -0.45% 1,323 1.06%
Nikon Corp 1,712 1,738 1,686 1,694 1,711 -0.99% 1,656 2.29%
Nippon Oil Corp 407 407 401 403 409 -1.47% 424 -4.95%
Nippon Steel Corp 335 337 331 335 336 -0.30% 343 -2.33%
Nissan Motor Co Ltd 666 670 653 661 662 -0.15% 657 0.61%
Sony Corp 2,550 2,575 2,530 2,550 2,555 -0.20% 2,590 -1.54%
Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd 229 230 227 229 232 -1.29% 231 -0.87%
TDK Corp 5,020 5,080 4,960 5,030 5,100 -1.37% 5,090 -1.18%
Tokyo Electron Ltd 4,840 4,950 4,810 4,900 4,850 1.03% 4,910 -0.20%
Toyota Motor Corp 3,520 3,570 3,510 3,510 3,520 -0.28% 3,520 -0.28%
Nikkei 225 9,793.19 9,805.20 9,719.38 9,770.31 9,804.49 -0.35% 9,789.35 -0.19%

HONG KONG - HANG SENG INDEX Open High Low Close Prv Dy Dy Chg Prv Wk Wk Chg
Bank of China 4.68 4.85 4.68 4.83 4.68 3.21% 4.61 4.77%
Bank of Communications 9.64 9.78 9.56 9.72 9.71 0.10% 9.61 1.14%
Bank of East Asia 33.40 34.00 32.30 32.80 34.05 -3.67% 28.70 14.29%
BOC Hongkong Ltd 19.82 19.86 19.26 19.46 19.72 -1.32% 18.42 5.65%
Cathay Pacific Air 13.46 13.50 13.34 13.46 13.36 0.75% 12.68 6.15%
China Construction Bank Corp. 7.08 7.16 7.00 7.14 7.03 1.56% 6.77 5.47%
China Life Insurance Company Ltd. 38.00 38.95 38.00 38.75 38.35 1.04% 37.45 3.47%
China Merchants Holdings Co. Ltd. 26.75 26.85 26.20 26.70 26.85 -0.56% 24.70 8.10%
China Mobile 74.10 74.80 73.50 73.80 74.40 -0.81% 74.10 -0.40%
China Overseas Land & Investment 16.72 17.16 16.68 17.08 16.90 1.07% 16.96 0.71%
China Petroleum& Chemical Corp. 6.88 6.90 6.80 6.82 6.85 -0.44% 6.82 0.00%
China Resources Enterprise, Ltd. 26.35 26.55 25.65 25.75 26.65 -3.38% 26.35 -2.28%
China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. 37.70 38.80 37.70 38.70 38.30 1.04% 37.20 4.03%
China TelecomCorporation Ltd. 3.56 3.58 3.50 3.55 3.54 0.28% 3.51 1.14%
CITIC Pacific Ltd. 22.70 22.80 21.60 22.00 22.25 -1.12% 20.35 8.11%
COSCO Pacific Ltd. 11.14 11.30 11.02 11.16 11.28 -1.06% 11.00 1.45%
Esprit Holdings 52.45 52.90 52.30 52.70 52.45 0.48% 53.00 -0.57%
Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. 6.88 6.90 6.66 6.70 6.83 -1.90% 7.40 -9.46%
Hang Lung Properties Ltd. 30.65 31.10 30.40 30.75 30.45 0.99% 30.15 1.99%
Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. 54.00 54.90 53.35 53.80 55.40 -2.89% 56.25 -4.36%
HK Electric Holdings Ltd. 42.00 42.25 41.90 42.20 41.85 0.84% 41.60 1.44%
Hong Kong & China Gas Company Ltd. 18.54 18.72 18.54 18.54 18.68 -0.75% 18.00 3.00%
Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. 55.10 55.60 54.30 54.50 54.50 0.00% 53.75 1.40%
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. 6.60 6.81 6.60 6.81 6.67 2.10% 6.47 5.26%
MTR Corporation Ltd. 27.50 27.55 27.25 27.35 27.40 -0.18% 27.05 1.11%
New World Development Company Ltd. 16.84 16.84 16.40 16.52 16.76 -1.43% 16.74 -1.31%
PetroChina Company Ltd. 10.00 10.04 9.86 9.95 10.08 -1.29% 9.83 1.22%
Ping An Insurance Company of China Ltd. 72.25 73.05 71.30 72.50 72.00 0.69% 71.35 1.61%
Sino Land Co. Ltd. 14.52 14.52 14.22 14.40 14.48 -0.55% 14.66 -1.77%
Wharf Holdings Ltd. 41.20 42.05 41.20 41.45 42.00 -1.31% 41.90 -1.07%
Hang Seng Index 22,381.34 22,707.36 22,343.99 22,553.63 22,397.57 0.70% 21,829.72 3.32%
 Indonesia - Jakarta Stock Exchange Open High Low Close Prv Dy Dy Chg Prv Wk Wk Chg
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk 21,850 22,400 21,600 22,150 22,200 -0.23% 21,850 1.37%
Adaro Energy Tbk 1,610 1,710 1,600 1,620 1,620 0.00% 1,540 5.19%
Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk 2,225 2,300 2,200 2,275 2,250 1.11% 2,325 -2.15%
Astra International Tbk 32,500 32,800 32,500 32,700 32,750 -0.15% 30,350 7.74%
Bank Central Asia Tbk 4,775 4,800 4,725 4,750 4,800 -1.04% 4,725 0.53%
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk 1,940 2,000 1,940 1,970 1,950 1.03% 1,890 4.23%
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk 7,300 7,550 7,250 7,450 7,300 2.05% 7,450 0.00%
Bank Danamon Tbk 4,425 4,450 4,400 4,450 4,450 0.00% 4,550 -2.20%
Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk 670 710 670 700 670 4.48% 680 2.94%
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 4,675 4,750 4,650 4,700 4,700 0.00% 4,625 1.62%
Barito Pacific Tbk 1,330 1,400 1,330 1,390 1,340 3.73% 1,350 2.96%
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk 750 780 740 770 760 1.32% 800 -3.75%
Bakrie TelecomTbk 130 131 128 129 131 -1.53% 120 7.50%
Bumi Resources Tbk 2,350 2,475 2,350 2,450 2,400 2.08% 2,325 5.38%
Central Proteinaprima Tbk 66 67 65 66 66 0.00% 68 -2.94%
Ciputra Property Tbk 275 285 275 285 280 1.79% 290 -1.72%
Bakrieland Development Tbk 280 290 275 285 285 0.00% 285 0.00%
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk 3,125 3,175 3,075 3,100 3,125 -0.80% 3,050 1.64%
Indika Energy Tbk 2,175 2,175 2,125 2,175 2,200 -1.14% 2,175 0.00%
Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk 11,400 11,650 11,400 11,600 11,500 0.87% 11,800 -1.69%
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk 24,850 25,700 24,800 25,650 25,100 2.19% 23,600 8.69%
Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk 1,840 1,850 1,840 1,850 1,840 0.54% 1,830 1.09%
Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk 127 130 127 129 129 0.00% 123 4.88%
Kalbe Farma Tbk 1,290 1,320 1,280 1,290 1,280 0.78% 1,280 0.78%
Lippo Karawaci Tbk 620 620 600 620 630 -1.59% 630 -1.59%
PP London Sumatera Tbk 7,500 7,750 7,500 7,750 7,550 2.65% 7,650 1.31%
Medco Energi International Tbk 2,575 2,625 2,575 2,625 2,625 0.00% 2,700 -2.78%
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk 3,600 3,650 3,600 3,625 3,650 -0.68% 3,700 -2.03%
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam 14,500 14,650 14,500 14,550 14,600 -0.34% 14,450 0.69%
HolcimIndonesia Tbk 1,590 1,620 1,590 1,610 1,590 1.26% 1,580 1.90%
Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk 7,300 7,450 7,150 7,150 7,350 -2.72% 7,400 -3.38%
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk 8,750 8,800 8,750 8,750 8,800 -0.57% 8,700 0.57%
Truba AlamManunggal E. Tbk 122 124 120 123 122 0.82% 126 -2.38%
Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk 710 770 710 760 730 4.11% 690 10.14%
United Tractors Tbk 15,550 15,750 15,450 15,550 15,700 -0.96% 15,000 3.67%
JSX Composite 2,420.08 2,431.23 2,408.62 2,426.80 2,420.28 0.27% 2,395.11 1.32%