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=
=
=
N x
x
x
r
x
A
r
A
r P
0
!
!
) ( where, A = Average offered traffic , N=no. of outlets
12 ECX 4233 Communication 2013/2014
r = no. of simultaneously occupied outlets or circuits
P(r) = probability of r outlets are simultaneously occupied (busy)
Grade of service =
=
=
= =
N x
x
x
N
x
A
N
A
B A N P
0
!
!
) , (
(i) Grade of Service = P(N,A) =
! 10
4
.......
2
4
1
4
1
! 10
4
10 2
10
+ + + +
= 0.005
(ii) the prob. That only 2 trunks are busy = = ) 2 ( P
! 10
4
.......
2
4
1
4
1
! 2
4
10 2
2
+ + + +
=0.147
(iii) the prob. That at least 2 trunks are free = 1 -P(9)-P(10) (i.e. maximum of 8 trunks
are busy)
=
! 10
4
.......
2
4
1
4
1
! 10
4
! 10
4
.......
2
4
1
4
1
! 9
4
1
10 2
10
10 2
9
+ + + +
+ + + +
=0.9946
(iv)
=
=
=
N x
x
x
N
x
A
N
A
A N P
0
!
!
) , (
=
=
=
1
0
1
!
)! 1 (
) , 1 (
N x
x
x
N
x
A
N
A
A N P
If one trunk is out of service,
=
=
=
9
0
9
!
4
! 9
4
) , 9 (
x
x
x
x
A P = 0.0133
(v) If 10% increase in offered traffic,
New offered traffic A = 4 x 110/100 = 4.4
Grade of Service = P(N,A) =
! 10
4 . 4
.......
2
4 . 4
1
4 . 4
1
! 10
4 . 4
10 2
10
+ + + +
= 0.00925
13 ECX 4233 Communication 2013/2014
Question (5) has small corrections. It should be corrected as follow. Full marks given to (b) 4.
Q5.
(a) Define the Erlangs B formula and give the main assumptions made in deriving this.
(b) A trunk line goes from a central switching office to a PBX contains 4 circuits. If the average
call duration is 3 minutes and offered traffic intensity during the busy hour is 2 Erlangs,
determine each of the following.
1. Busy hour calling rate
2. Grade-of-service
3. Amount of lost traffic
4. Probability that no circuits are occupied
5. Probability that less than 3 circuits are occupied
(a)
This formula applies to a full availability group in a loss system, under the following assumptions.
1. The traffic is pure change ie. calls originate individually and collectively at random and if all
circuits are busy then they are rejected and do not return.
2. There are infinite number of inlets (sources) and a finite number of outlets (servers)
Then, the probability that r outlets are simultaneously held is;
=
=
=
+ + + + +
=
N X
X
X
r
N
r
X
A
r
A
N
A A A A
r
A
r P
0
3 2
!
!
!
.....
! 3 ! 2 ! 1
1
!
) (
Where:
A = Average offered traffic
N = No of outlets (circuits)
r = No of simultaneously occupied outlets or circuits
And, for a full availability group of outlets (or circuits) where the above assumptions are valid;
The probability of loss (ie proportion of lost calls or grade of service or the probability of blocking is;
=
=
=
+ + + + +
= =
N X
X
X
N
N
N
X
A
N
A
N
A A A A
N
A
B A N P
0
3 2
!
!
!
.....
! 3 ! 2 ! 1
1
!
) , (
This is called the Erlang's B formula, and gives the time congestion of system.
14 ECX 4233 Communication 2013/2014
(b)
From Erlangs formula, we get the probability that r circuits are simultaneously held as,
( )
=
=
N
x
x
x
A
r
r
A
r P
0
!
!
) (
Where A= average offered traffic.
N= No .of circuits & r= No .of simultaneously occupied circuits.
4 cicuits N = 4 , Average call duration, h = 3 min
Offered traffic = 2E
(i). Let busy hour calling rate = x
1
60
3
2
=
x
x = 40 calls per hour or 10 calls/ hour/line
(ii) The Grade Of Service (G.O.S.)=
( )
( )
( )
095 . 0
3 7
2
!
2
! 4
2
!
!
) (
4
0
4
0
=
= = = =
= = x
x N
x
x
x x
A
N
N
A
N P
(iii) Lost traffic = Offered traffic carried traffic
G.O.S. =
offered traffic
lost traffic
2
lost traffic
095 . 0 =
Traffic lost = 0.19E
(iv) Probability that no circuits are occupied =
( )
=
=
4
0
!
2
! 0
0
2
) 0 (
x
x
x
P = 1/7 =0.143
(iv). Probability that less than 3 circuits are occupied = ) 2 ( ) 1 ( ) 0 ( P P P + + or
) 4 ( ) 3 ( 1 P P
) 2 ( ) 1 ( ) 0 ( P P P + + =
( ) ( )
714 . 0
7
5
7
2
7
2
7
1
!
2
! 2
2
2
!
2
! 1
1
2
) 7 / 1 (
4
0
4
0
= = + + = + +
= = x
x
x
x
x x