Kevern Cochrane

Fisheries and Aquaculture Dept

FAO
Climate Change
(from IPCC AR4 WGII)
Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries
 changes in currents, water mass distribution; acidification
of oceans; rise in sea level
 degradation and disruption of marine and coastal
ecosystems; loss of coastal habitats (mangroves, coral reefs,
pelagic food webs)
 shifts in distribution, species displacement
 increased frequency / intensity of extreme events: cyclones
and their associated storm surges and inland flooding
 increased competition and conflicts over freshwater

climate change impacts are in addition to: overfishing,

pollution, conflicts over resource use, poverty and other
existing vulnerabilities
 CC impacts on fisheries and aquaculture
(from Allison & De Young) Impacts on:
GLOBAL
Effects on: Species composition
WARMING
Production & yield
Ocean currents Production Distribution
Ecology Diseases
ENSO
Coral bleaching
Sea level rise Calcification
Rainfall Fishing & Safety & efficiency
River flows Aquaculture Infrastructure
operations
Lake levels Loss/damage to assets
Communities Risk to health & life
Thermal structure
Livelihoods Displacement & conflict
Storm Severity
Wider society & Adaptation &
Storm frequency mitigation costs
Economy
Acidification Market impacts
Water allocation
 What is at stake?: Aquatic food production
 44 million fishers & fish farmers,
520 million people – 8 % of the
world’s population – depend on
fisheries
 144 million tonnes produced in
2006, 110 mt for human
consumption; 16.7 Kg per capita
 15 % or more of animal protein for
2.9 billion people
 47 % from aquaculture (growing
8.7% per yr), current value US$78.8
billion
What is at stake?: Other aquatic ecosystem services
 Coastal protection – mangroves, reefs, mudflats, sea-
grass beds etc
 Climate regulation – seasonal and decadal cycles (e.g. El
Nino) and long-term processes – oceans as heat sink and
carbon sink…
 Environmental flows – river and floodplain services –
livelihoods, soil fertility, sediment deposition
 Biodiversity conservation – reefs, the deep sea, polar
ecosystems, shelf-seas, mangroves, lakes and rivers
 Cultural services – coastal heritage, identity and
spirituality, education and knowledge, aesthetic
enjoyment, food culture.
 Vulnerability analysis framework to determine countries most
at risk (from IPCC 2001)
EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY
Nature and degree Degree to which
to which countries economies & people
are exposed to are likely to be
predicted climate affected by fishery-
change related changes

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Abilities and resources to cope with
All impacts that may occur without taking
climate-related changes
into account planned adaptation

VULNERABILITY
Relative vulnerability of national econonomies to potential impact
of CC on their fisheries

Very low
Low
Moderate
High
No data

Allison et al 2009

 2/3 of most vulnerable are Least Developed Countries

What can be done?
Resilience Theory and the Adaptive Cycle

Fore loop with relatively predictable dynamics and back loop marked
by uncertainty and experimentation (from Walker and Salt 2006)
What can we learn from resilience
theory
 In fisheries almost all the emphasis up till now has been on the growth
(r) and conservation (K) phases
 Under the influence of drivers, often ‘external’ drivers, systems can
enter a release phase (Ώ), disassemble and re-organize (α) in very
different forms
 Climate change is likely to be a powerful driver of change
 We are coming to accept that humans cannot control ecosystems, and
social-ecological stability is the exception rather than the norm
 Resilience reduces the likelihood of release and increases the
likelihood that, in the event of release, re-organization will not result
in major changes
 Resilience requires, above all, diversity (genetic and species), low stress
from other factors, ‘healthy’ and productive populations.
 Effective EAF (in ecological and human dimensions) should lead to
resilient social-ecological systems.
Responding to the impacts: adaptation to climate
change through broader vulnerability reduction
• Ecological Resilience –
implementation of ecosystem
approach to fisheries and
aquaculture, principles of the Code
of Conduct for Responsible
Fisheries
• Economic and Social Resilience –
diversification, flexible access
rights, insurance
• Technological innovation –
aquaculture systems
• Planned adaptation –policy
coherence across sectors (water,
agriculture, CZM)
• Disaster preparedness and response
 Typology for adaptation of fisheries to CC
Impact on fisheries Potential adaptation measures Responsibility Timescale
1. Increased variability Diversify livelihood portfolio Private Either
of yield (indirect Insurance schemes Public Anticipatory
ecological)
Precautionary management for Public Anticipatory
resilient ecosystems
Implementation of integrated and Public Anticipatory
adaptive management
2. Change in distribution Private research and development Private Anticipatory
of fisheries (indirect and investments in technologies*
ecological) Migration Private Either
3. Reduced profitability Reduce costs to increase efficiency Private Either
(indirect ecological Diversify livelihoods Private Either
and socio-
economic) Exit the fishery for other liivelihoods Private Reactive
4. Increased Hard defences* Public Anticipatory
vulnerability of Early warning systems and education Public Anticipatory
coastal and riparian
communities and Rehabilitation and disaster response Public Reactive
infrastructure to Integrated coastal management Public Anticipatory
flooding, sea level
Infrastructure provision (protecting Public Anticipatory
and surges (direct)
harbours and landing sites)
 General information needs
 marine biogeochemistry and water mass properties
 changes in atmospheric forcing (wind, heat, freshwater)
 monitor trends in resources, communities and ecosystems
 prediction of impacts, identify the most vulnerable ecosystsms,
individuals and communities
 possible government facilitated adaptation
 the constraints on private adaptations
 desirable adaptations which contribute to long term reductions in
vulnerabilities, rather than short-term coping strategies which may
enhance vulnerability

Global climate Local climate Impacts on Responses of

trends and trends and biophysical social-ecological
projections projections systems systems
? ?? ??? ????
 Mitigation - Oceans, aquatic ecosystems
 Carbon capture and storage (seabed)
 Renewable energy potential – tides, currents, waves,
wind, hydropower, marine biofuels
 Incorporation of mangroves and floodplain forests
in REDD+
 Emissions reductions from aquatic food production
systems and maritime transport
 Disruption of carbon sequestration in marine
ecosystems by ocean acidification
 Priorities for Fisheries
 integrated management (EAF, EAA), Code of Conduct
 reduce vulnerabilities and reduce harm / damage created
by impact
 increase resilience of fishers and fishing communities to
Climate Change
 human resources and capacity building to deal with CC and
DRM (including disaster response and recovery
programmes)
 mainstream climate change adaptation into broader
fisheries management, policy and laws
 improve governance and institutions– to take account
variability, sustainability and uncertainty
 increase information available (as in previous slide)
Working Together - the Partnership on Climate, Fisheries,
and Aquaculture (PaCFA)
 Acknowledgements
 Thanks to Cassandra de Young and Tarub Bahri of FAO
and Eddie Alison of WorldFish Centre for many of the
slides used here.