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STAT 1012: Statistics for Life Science

2013/14 Term 1
Solutions to Practice Problems (Chapter 2)
Problem 1:
(a) Possible Outcomes ={HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}, where H and T denotes a
head or a tail appearing in each of the three flips.
(b) Event of one head and 2 tails = {HTT, THT, TTH}. Hence Pr(one head and 2 tails) = 3/8
Problem 2:
(a) Since there are two possible outcomes (True or false) for each of the 5 questions, the
number of possible outcomes for answering 5 questions should be 2
5
=32.
(b) Out of the 32 possible outcomes, there is only one outcome which gives all the 5
answers correct. Hence Pr(at least one question wrong) = 1- Pr(all answers
correct)=1-1/32=31/32 = 0.96875
Problem 3:
(a) False, because the cards are draw without replacement. The correct probability is
(26/52)x(25/51)x(24/50)=2/17=0.1176
(b) A and B are NOT independent, because (1) if the first card is red (i.e. A occurs),
Pr(B)=25/51, (2) if the first card is black (i.e. A not occur), Pr(B)=26/51.
(c) True in (a) that Probability is 0.5x0.5x0.5 = 0.125. In (b), A and B are independent,
because Pr(B)=1/2 regardless of whether A occurred or not.
Problem 4: (a) Probability = 1/9 (b) (i) Based on Benfords Law, Pr(5 or 6 as leading digit) =
0.08+0.07 = 0.15. (ii) Random selection: Pr(5 or 6 as leading digit) = 1/9+1/9= 2/9 = 0.2222.
Problem 5: False. Equally likely with probability (0.5)
10
each
Problem 6: False. The chance of obtaining 1 head is twice as that for obtaining 0 head or 2
heads. Hence Pr(1 head) = 2/4 =1/2
Problem 7:
(a) Pr(A
c
B
c
C
c
)=Pr(A
c
)Pr(B
c
)Pr(C
c
) (because A
c
, B
c
and C
c
are independent)
=(1-1/4)x(1-1/3)x(1-1/2)=1/4
(b) Pr({One event will occur})
=Pr(AB
c
C
c
)+ Pr(A
c
BC
c
)+ Pr(A
c
B
c
C)
=Pr(A)Pr(B
c
)Pr(C
c
)+ Pr(A
c
)Pr(B)Pr(C
c
)+ Pr(A
c
)Pr(B
c
)Pr(C) (because of the independence)
=(1/4)(2/3)(1/2)+(3/4)(1/3)(1/2)+(3/4)(2/3)(1/2)=11/24
Problem 8:
(a) Let R be the event of recessive gene a, M be the event that the maternal gene is of type
a, and P be the event that the paternal gene is of type a. Then
Pr(R)=Pr(M P) = Pr(M)Pr(P) (because of independence) = (0.25)(0.25)=0.0625
(b) Let AA be the event that both parents are from population A, AB be the event that
parents are from different population, and BB be the event that both parents are from
population B.
Now, given that Pr(R|A)=40%, Pr(R|B)=10%, then
Pr(R|AA)=Pr(R|A)
2
=0.16, Pr(R|BB)=Pr(R|B)
2
=0.01 and Pr(R|AB)=2Pr(R|A)Pr(R|B)=0.08.
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Also Pr(AA)=0.25, Pr(AB)=0.10 and Pr(BB)=0.65.
Note that events AA, AB and BB are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Based on the
total probability rule, Pr(R)=Pr(R|AA)Pr(AA)+Pr(R|AB)Pr(AB)+Pr(R|BB)Pr(BB)
=0.16x0.25+0.08x0.10+0.01x0.65=0.0545
(c) Events AA, AB and BB are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Based on the Bayes rule,
1468 . 0
0545 . 0
) 10 . 0 ( 08 . 0
) Pr( ) | Pr( ) Pr( ) | Pr( ) Pr( ) | Pr(
) Pr( ) | Pr(
) | Pr(
1193 . 0
0545 . 0
) 65 . 0 ( 01 . 0
) Pr( ) | Pr( ) Pr( ) | Pr( ) Pr( ) | Pr(
) Pr( ) | Pr(
) | Pr(
7339 . 0
0545 . 0
) 25 . 0 ( 16 . 0
) Pr( ) | Pr( ) Pr( ) | Pr( ) Pr( ) | Pr(
) Pr( ) | Pr(
) | Pr(

BB BB R AB AB R AA AA R
BB BB R
R B
BB BB R AB AB R AA AA R
AB AB R
R AB
BB BB R AB AB R AA AA R
AA AA R
R AA

Problem 9:
(a) Since an Ace cannot be a face card, hence AB= and therefore A and B are mutually
exclusive.
However, BC={J, Q, K} and AC={A} , meaning that (1) B and C are NOT
mutually exclusive, and (2) A and C are NOT mutually exclusive.
(b) Pr(BC)=Pr({J, Q, K})=3/52.
Problem 10: (d) Based on the De Morgans Law, A
c
U B
c
= (AB)
c
.
Hence Pr(A
c
U B
c
)=1-Pr(AB) = 1-Pr(A)Pr(B)= 1-0.5x0.4=0.8.
Problem 11: Want to compute Pr(AUB | (A
c
B
c
C
c
)
c
). Now,
Pr(A
c
B
c
C
c
) =Pr(A
c
)Pr(B
c
C
c
) (because of independence)
=(1-1/4)x[1-Pr(B U C)]
=(3/4)x[1-(Pr(B)+Pr(C)-Pr(BC))] (using the addition law of probability)
=(3/4)x[1-1/3-1/2+1/8]=7/32
2 / 1 ) 3 / 1 )( 4 / 1 ( 3 / 1 4 / 1
ce) independen of (because ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( Also,

B A B A B A B A B A

Hence
25
16
32 / 7 1
2 / 1
) ) Pr((
) Pr(
) ) Pr((
) ) ( ) Pr((
) ) ( | Pr(

c c c c c c c c
c c c c
c c c c
C B A
B A
C B A
C B A B A
C B A B A

Problem 12:
(a) Let S be the event that the mother actually smoke, and D be the event that a positive
report (on mothers smoking) was made by her daughter.
8558 . 0
1126 6685
6685
) Pr( ) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) | Pr(

D S D S
D S
D
D S
D S PV
c

(b) 9500 . 0
23227 1222
23227
) Pr( ) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) | Pr(

C c C
C C
C
C C
C C
D S D S
D S
D
D S
D S PV
Problem 13: (b) 1 and 3 only. (3) is true because given AUB = , we have Pr(AUB)=1,
which gives Pr(A)+Pr(B)=1+Pr(AB)1.
(1) is true because Pr(A)+Pr(B)1 => Pr(B) 1-Pr(A)=Pr(A
c
).
(2) is false because Pr(C|A)Pr(A)+Pr(C|B)Pr(B)=Pr(CA)+ Pr(CB) = [Pr(C)- Pr(CA
c
)]+
Pr(CB) = Pr(C)+ [Pr(CB)- Pr(CA
c
)] Pr(C)
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Problem 14: (b) 3 only
1. is not true because Pr(A|B
c
) Pr(A
c
|B) in general.
2. is not true because Pr(A|B)=Pr(B|A) Pr(AB)/Pr(B)= Pr(AB)/Pr(A) Pr(A)=Pr(B).
3. is true because Pr(B)= Pr(AB)+ Pr(A
c
B) Pr(AB).

Problem 15: Let C be the event that A is in class, and D is the event that B is in class,
Pr({at least one student in class})=Pr(C D)
=Pr(C)+Pr(D)-Pr(C D) by the addition law of probability
=0.8+0.6-0.48=0.92
Therefore probability that A is in class given at least one students is in class is given by
Pr(C|C D)=Pr(C (C D))/Pr(C D)= Pr(C)/Pr(C D)=0.8/0.92=0.8696

Problem 16:
(a) Let D be the event of having disease, test+ be the event of test positive and test- be the
event of test negative.
Pr(D)=0.02, Pr(test+|D)=0.99, Pr(test+|ND)=0.005. Using the Bayes rule,
Pr(D|test+) = Pr(D)xPr(test+|D)/[ Pr(D)xPr(test+|D)+ Pr(ND)xPr(test+|ND)]
= (0.02x0.99)/(0.02x0.99+0.98x0.005)=0.0198/0.0247=0.8016
(b) Pr(D|test-) = Pr(D)xPr(test-|D)/[ Pr(D)xPr(test-|D)+ Pr(ND)xPr(test-|ND)]
= (0.02x0.01)/(0.02x0.01+0.98x0.995)=0.0002/0.9753=0.000205
Therefore RR= Pr(D|test+)/Pr(D|test-)=0.8016/0.000205=3909
Since RR >>1, the test and the disease are higher dependent with each other. Therefore,
the test is useful in indicating the disease.

Problem 17:
(a) Let HIV be the event of HIV positive from the high risk group, test+ be the event of test
positive and test- be the event of test negative. Then Pr(HIV)=0.5, Pr(test+|HIV)=0.999
and Pr(test-|no HIV)=0.9999. Based on the Bayes Rule,
Pr (HIV|test+)=Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)/[Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)+Pr(test+|no HIV)Pr(no HIV)]
=(0.999)(0.5)/[0.999(0.5)+(1-0.9999)(0.5)]=9990/9991
(b) If Pr(HIV)=0.1, then
Pr (HIV|test+)=Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)/[Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)+Pr(test+|no HIV)Pr(no HIV)]
=(0.999)(0.1)/[0.999(0.1)+(1-0.9999)(0.9)]=9990/9999
If Pr(HIV)=0.01, then
Pr (HIV|test+)=Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)/[Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)+Pr(test+|no HIV)Pr(no HIV)]
=(0.999)(0.01)/[0.999(0.01)+(1-0.9999)(0.99)]=9990/10089
In conclusion, when the prevalence rate (i.e. Pr(HIV)) decreases from 0.50 to 0.10 and
0.01, Pr(HIV|test+) decreases as well, suggesting that the a positive test result becomes
less accurate/reliable.