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DAILYFXUPDATE
Wednesday,May7,2014
CAMILLASUTTON,CFA,CMT
ChiefFXStrategist,ManagingDirector
T.416.866.5470
camilla.suon@scoabank.com
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USDLOOKSTOCHAIRYELLEN
USD weakness failed to be carried into the European and Asian ses
sions;relavelyquietstartleadingintoChairYellenstesmony.
CAD hangs onto its recent 1% rally; improving fundamentals, broad
USDweakness&CADshortcoveringwerekeydriversofrally.
CADBoClikelytogrowincreasinglycauousonrallyingCAD.
EURisataersodata&leadingintoThursdaysECBmeengwe
expectnochangebutadovishtonesenguppotenalaconinJune.
GBPisat,failingtobreakabove1.70,butsllelevated.Limiteddata
todayleadingintoThursBoEmeeng,expectedtobenonevent.
NOK is up sll irng with ytd highs leading into Wed Norges Bank
decision,widelyexpectedtoholdratesat1.5%.
JPYisat;nosurprisesinBoJminutes.
AUDisstableleadingintowhatisexpectedtobeweakemployment.
NZDisweakasGovStevensremindsmarketsaboutintervenon.
CNYisso&volaleleadingintothereleaseofAprilstradedata.
USDCAD(1.0885)CADisup0.1%sinceyesterdaysclose,havingrallied
1%sofarthisweek.BroadlybasedUSDweakness,recognionthatonce
started the Feds hiking cycle will introduce rate hikes only gradually,
strongerCanadiandomescfundamentals,amoreposivelightforCan
adas oil sector (see WSJ arcle suggested readings and chart) and CAD
shortcoveringhaveallworkedinfavourofCADoverthelastthreeses
sions.C.S.
DXYFLIRTSWITHBREAKOFOCTOBER2013LOW
FXRETURNSYEARTODATEAGAINSTUSD
CADPOSITIVEOILPRICINGINCDNFAVOUR
Source:Bloomberg&ScoabankFXStrategy
Source:Bloomberg&ScoabankFXStrategy
Source:Bloomberg&ScoabankFXStrategy
Brent
WTI
WesternCdnSelect
SpreadbetweenBrentWCS;thelowerthe
morefavourableforCAD
Low=78.998
Wednesday,May07,2014
2
GLOBALFXSTRATEGY
SuggestedReading
TheECBandinaon:pleaseease,P.W.,TheEconomist(May6,2014)Inaonislowandexpectedtoremainlowforlong,raisingtherisk
thatanunforeseenupsetpushesthecurrencyclubintooutrightdeaon,anightmareforitsdebtladeneconomies.
ThinktankseesworkaroundforECBbondbuys,B.Blackstone,WSJ(May6,2014)BuyingthebondsofEuropeaninstuons,liketheEuro
peanstabilitymechanismandEuropeaninvestmentbank,mightmakesensefortheECBaslowinaonisparcularlydangerousinEurope.
ECBexpectaons:beerthantherealthing?,R.Barley,WSJ(May6,2014)TheappeteforEuropeandebtmaycomedowntoinvestors
ancipangmoreaconbytheECB,meaningthemarketislooseningpolicyfortheECB&makingECBexpectaonsaspowerfulasacon.
GapbetweenCanadian,U.S.oilpricenarrows,N.Friedman,WSJ(May7,2014)Canadianoilpricesaresurging,narrowingthegapwithU.S.
crude,asnewpipelinesconnectproducerswithpreviouslyhardtoreachGulfCoastreneries2,000milestothesouth.
GBPUSD shortterm technicals: bullish
and not overbought suggesng that a
break above 1.70 is likely in the near
term.C.S.
WeexpecttheECBtoholdpolicy,leavinginterestratesat0.25%,butadovishtonedeliveredby
President Draghi. Of the 58 economists polled by Bloomberg, only two see an interest rate cut
however the market is pricing in a slightly larger risk of policy acon. Our analysis is below (as
wellasdierentdetailsinyesterdaysmorningdocument);wedonotexpectaninterestratecut
orthelaunchofQE.C.S.
Interestratecutwouldbeappropriateonthebackofaghteningofmonetarydynamics,either
fromshortrates,ahigherEURordevelopmentsinglobalbondmarkets.TheEURishigher(atthe
lastmeengitwasat1.37andhasnowralliedto1.39);howeverwedonotforeseethisasstrong
enoughtojusfyaratecut.C.S.
An asset purchase (QE) program would be warranted if there was a worsening in the medium
termoutlookforinaon,wehighlightedyesterdaythatitisarguablethishasoccurred;however
with high frequency data suggesng building growth momentum and a boom in CPI likely al
readyformedtheECBhasenoughreasontotakeawaitandseeapproach.Finally,onApril28th
(less than two weeks ago), President Draghi suggested that QE is a viable policy tool but isn't
imminent.AccordinglywedonotexpectthelaunchofQE.C.S.
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CONTACTSGLOBALFXSTRATEGY
Pleasecontactauthorsdirectlytobeaddedtodistribuonlists
CamillaSuon,CFA,CMT
ChiefFXStrategist,ManagingDirector
T.416.866.5470
camilla.suon@scoabank.com
EricTheoret
FXStrategist(G10),AssociateDirector
T.416.863.7030
eric.theoret@scoabank.com
EduardoSuarez
SeniorFXStrategist(LATAM),Director
T.416.945.4538
eduardo.suarez@scoabank.com
SachaTihanyi
SeniorFXStrategist(ASIAexJapan),Director
T.852.2861.4770
sacha.hanyi@scoabank.com
CONFERENCECALLFXOUTLOOK
PleasejoinusforourFXoutlookforEUR,GBP,CADandAUD,presentedbyCamillaSuon,ChiefFXStrategist.
Thispresentaonisnowavailableatyourconvenience.
Theprerecordedwebcastisavailableat:hps://cc.callinfo.com/cc/playback/Playback.do?id=1bhu4a
TODAY'SRELEASES&SPEAKERS
Ti me
(EST)
Country Rel ease Peri od Consensus Last Si gni fi cance
08:30 CA Bui l di ngPermi tsMoM Mar 4.00% 11.60% med
08:30 US NonfarmProducti vi ty&Uni tLaborCosts 1QP l ow
10:00 US FedChai rYel l enTesti fi estoJoi ntEconomi cCommi ttee HIGH
13:30 UK BoEFPCOffi ci al AndyHal danespeaks;notext,Q&Aunknown med
15:00 US ConsumerCredi t Mar $15.500B $16.489B l ow
19:01 UK RICSHousePri ceBal ance Apr 55% 57% medhi gh
21:30 AU Empl oymentChange Apr 9.5K 18.1K medhi gh
21:30 AU Unempl oymentRate Apr 5.90% 5.80% med
CH TradeBal ance Apr $18.20B $7.71B medhi gh
CH ExportsYoY Apr 2.00% 6.60% medhi gh
CH ImportsYoY Apr 2.00% 11.30% medhi gh
02:00 GE Industri al Producti onSAMoM Mar 0.20% 0.40% medhi gh
04:00 NO Deposi tRates 8May 1.50% 1.50% HIGH
07:00 UK BankofEngl andBankRate 8May 0.50% 0.50% HIGH
07:45 EC ECBAnnouncesInterestRates 8May 0.25% 0.25% HIGH
07:45 EC ECBMargi nal Lendi ngFaci l i ty 8May 0.75% 0.75% HIGH
07:45 EC ECBDeposi tFaci l i tyRate 8May 0.00% 0.00% HIGH