The Coming

Wealth Transfer
Peak Prosperity
Wine Country Conference, 2014
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Creating A World Worth Inheriting
The next twenty
years are going to be
completely unlike
the last twenty years.
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0
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-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 2100
-7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000
Billions
Years
Population
3
7
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Demography Is Destiny
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/09/demography-is-destiny/un-population-projections/
Energy
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Energy = Economy
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A Full Doubling of Spending...
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...Kept The World Running In Place
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IOCs have tossed in the towel...
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Not High Enough!
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Tight Oil EIA Estimates
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Cheap Is In The Past...
Environment
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June 2013 Record Highs
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Jan 2014 Record Lows & Snow
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Accelerating changes...
https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=123324
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Aquifers Being Depleted
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jul/06/food-supply-threat-water-wells-dry-up
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The web is breaking...
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A Crummy Legacy
Economy
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Good News?
Stocks at or near all time highs

Bonds at or near all time highs
Sovereign
Corporate
Junk

Housing is back to all time highs in most
markets


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A Light Year of Printing
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Credit Growth Back On Track
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8% Compound Growth
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4% Compound Growth
Double!
(18 years)
The next twenty
years are going to be
completely unlike
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The Next Twenty Years...
Will there be more people, or fewer?
Will oil be harder and more expensive to find, or cheaper
and easier?
Will there be more net energy per capita or less?
Will coal and other minerals be easier to mine and of
higher quality, or the opposite?
Will there be more conflicts over resources or fewer?
Will aquifers have more water in them or less?
Will more soil be built up or be lost to erosion?
Will there be more carbon in the atmosphere or less?

The Great
Wealth Transfer
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The Wealth Pyramid
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In Balance...
$ Money $
Real
Wealth
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Out of Balance...
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The Wealth Pyramid
Expanding
constantly
Expanding much
more slowly, or
contracting and
even
disappearing
Money is a claim
on things

Debt is a claim on
(future) money
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Those Claims Are Piling Up
and the only defense
is to be closest to the
exit!

(Or leave first)
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Thank You