Capstone Project CapstoneProject

Prishtina International Airport PrishtinaInternationalAirport

CapacityExpansionsandService
S d d Standards
BujarEjupi
E il b j @ il Email:bujar.e@gmail.com
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AIRPORT AIRPORT
Popullation:2Millions
GDP: percapitais1,726
($2,346),anumberthat
reflectsonly6.9percentofthe
EU 27 real growth is EU27average,real growth is
estimated to be 4%.
Diaspora:about17%ofKosovars
li e abroad abo t 30% of
Regional
centers
Travellingdistancefrom
Prishtina(Km)
liveabroad,about30%of
Kosovar householdshaveone
ormoretheirmembersliving
abroad
( )
Skopje 86
Sofia 279
Thessaloniki 312
Tirana 265
abroad
Remittances:Thetotalannual
inflowisaround317million,
or approximately 14% of Kosova
Tirana 265
Belgrade 355
Durres 290
Sarajevo 390
orapproximately14%ofKosova
GDP.
2
TRAFFIC GROWTH AND PROBLEMS TRAFFICGROWTHANDPROBLEMS
PIAPassengersgrowth
Results:
1,200,000
1,400,000
Results:
Capacityconstrains
Delays
800,000
1,000,000
Delays
Decreasein
passengers
400,000
600,000
passengers
satisfaction
200,000
,
Challenge:
Increase capacity
3
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Increasecapacity
Improveservice
Public Private Partnership PublicPrivatePartnership
TheGovernmentofKosovoseekstoensurethatthe
Airportmeetsitsfulleconomicandoperational
potential.Forthisreason,onJune12,2009,via
GovernmentDecision05/68,theGovernmentof
Kosovoformallyauthorizedproceedingwitha
PublicPrivatePartnership.
The Project is envisioned to take the form of a 20year TheProjectisenvisionedtotaketheformofa20 year
DesignBuildFinanceOperateTransfer(DBFOT.
MinimumPerformanceand
CapacityLevels:IATAlevelC(
good level of service) goodlevelofservice)
4
PROJECT OBJECTIVES PROJECTOBJECTIVES
Forecast the capacity required for short Forecastthecapacityrequiredforshort
andlongterm
Provideaserviceorientedapproachto
b ld d l capacitybuildingandplanning
Provideoptimuminvestmentplanfor
future development futuredevelopment
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FORECASTING
Forecastingistheheartofplanning. g p g
Forecastsarenecessarytodefinethefacilities
thatwillberequired,thescaleofsuchfacilities,
andthetimeatwhichtheywillberequired.
EconometricModels
Market Surveys MarketSurveys
Trendanalyses
Expert judgments Expertjudgments
6
TRENDLINE ANALYSES TRENDLINEANALYSES
Trend
Regression
Statistics
R
2
0.7359
Slope 41467.36
Intercept 767025.9
Forecastforselectedt
t Pax
2015 1,389,036 0 5 ,389,036
2020 1,596,373
2025 1,803,710
2030 2 011 047 2030 2,011,047
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EXPERT OPINION! EXPERTOPINION!
ForecastProjection
Airport
2 200 000
2,500,000
2 200 000
2,500,000
2,800,000
Airport
Airlines
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
1,800,000
2,200,000
1 400 000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Airport
Airlines
Civil Aviation Authority
1,400,000
Airport
CAA
Airlines
CivilAviationAuthority
2015 2020 2025 2030
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FORECASTING FORECASTING
Lowtrafficgrowth:Thereispotentialfordevelopmentbutbecauseof
liti l t i ti t titi f th d politicaluncertainties,strongcompetitionfromthemodern
motorway,decreaseinnumberofDiasporatravelling
MediumtrafficgrowthThefuturedevelopmentineconomicand
political area with effect the traffic growth positively and unleash politicalareawitheffectthetrafficgrowthpositivelyandunleash
thepotenciesforairtravel,negativefactorsaretakenintothe
consideration.
Hightrafficgrowth:KosovowithbecomememberofEUandalso
reachathighdevelopmentlevelattractingforeigninvestmentand
becomefavoritedestinationforemigrantsandtourism
L S i Mid S i Hi h S i LowScenario MidScenario HighScenario
2015 1.400,000 1.600.000 1,800,000
2020 1,600.000 2.000.000 2.300.000
2025 1,800.000 2.200.000 2.800.000
2030 2.000.000 2.500.000 3.000.000
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PEAK HOURS PEAKHOURS
IATA SBR(StandardBusy
R t ) (IATA 1998) h Rate)(IATA,1998)where
the30
th
busiesthourin
theyearisconsideredto
be the peak hour The bethepeakhour.The
facilitiesshouldbeable
toservethetrafficforall
but29hoursoutof
87600hours
BAA usestheBHR(
busyhourrate) Facilities
Nr DATE ROUNDTIME SumofDPAX
1 1/11/2009 4:00:00PM 885
anddesignmustbe
readytoprocess
efficiently95%of
passengers
2 1/10/2009 3:00:00PM 873
3 1/11/2009 3:00:00PM 852
4 8/16/2009 4:00:00PM 848
5 1/4/2009 3 00 00 PM 840 passengers. 5 1/4/2009 3:00:00PM 840
30 4/12/2009 10:00:00AM 661
41 10/17/2009 11:00:00AM 624
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Forecasting Forecasting
2015 LowScenario MidScenario HighScenario
AnnualPassengers 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000
AnnuaDepPax 721,000 824,000 927,000
Peakmonthdeppax 122,570 140,080 157,590
Averageday 3,922 4,483 5,043
BusyDay 7,109 8,125 9,140
PeakHour 730 834 938
2020 LowScenario MidScenario HighScenario g
AnnualPassengers 1,600,000 2,000,000 2,300,000
AnnuaDepPax 824,000 1,030,000 1,184,500
Peakmonthdeppax 140,080 175,100 201,365
Averageday 4,483 5,603 6,444
BusyDay 8,125 10,156 11,679
Peak Hour 834 1,042 1,199 PeakHour 834 1,042 1,199
2025 LowScenario MidScenario HighScenario
AnnualPassengers 1,800,000 2,200,000 2,800,000
AnnualDepPax 927,000 1,133,000 1,442,000
Peakmonthdeppax 157,590 192,610 245,140
Average day 5 043 6 164 7 844 Averageday 5,043 6,164 7,844
BusyDay 9,140 11,171 14,218
PeakHour 938 1,146 1,459
2030 LowScenario MidScenario HighScenario
AnnualPassengers 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000
Annua Dep Pax 1 030 000 1 287 500 1 545 000 AnnuaDepPax 1,030,000 1,287,500 1,545,000
Peakmonthdeppax 175,100 218,875 262,650
Averageday 5,603 7,004 8,405
BusyDay 10,156 12,695 15,234
PeakHour 1,042 1,303 1,563
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Service Standards ServiceStandards
Definition:
ACI TheACIsurveyseekstomeasurepassengers
ll i f i i h i b ki i overallsatisfactionwithanairportbyrankingits
performanceagainstotherairportsintermsofvarious
aspectsofanairportsservices
IATA Itdefinessixlevelsofservicestandard,Thesix
IATAstandardsfromAtoEmeasure,intermsofm
2
per
occupant p
A Anexcellentlevelofservice.
B Highlevelofservice.
C Goodlevelofservice.
D Adequatelevelofservice.
E Inadequate level of service E Inadequatelevelofservice.
F Unacceptablelevelofservice..
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Service Standards ServiceStandards
IATA
A B C D E F
CheckInQueueWith2+Bags(Counter) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 0
CheckInQueueWithFewBags(SelfService) 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0
Wait/Circulate(WithCarts) 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.2 0
Wait/Circulate 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 0.9 0
Holdroom 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.3 1 0
BagClaimArea 2.6 2 1.7 1.3 1 0
No
Descriptionofvariables Value
1 PeakNumberofpassengers 625
2 Proportion of passengers using car/tax 0 7 2 Proportionofpassengersusingcar/tax 0.7
3 AverageNumberofpassengerspercar/taxi 1.7
4 Averageoccupancytimeperpassengers/visitors(minutes) 20
5 Average curb occupancy time per car/taxi (minutes) 1 5 5 Averagecurboccupancytimepercar/taxi(minutes) 1.5
6 Numberofvisitorsperpassengers 1.5
7 AverageprocessingtimeperpassengersCHECKin(minutes) 2
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Baggage claim area Baggageclaimarea
BAGGAGE CLAIM AREA BAGGAGECLAIMAREA
Data Required: DataRequired:
e=PeakHournumberofpassengers 625.00
w=Averageoccupancytimeperpassengers g p y p p g
(minutes) 30.00
s=Spacerequiredperpassengers(m2) 1.80
A=
A= 618.75
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Calculating demand Calculatingdemand
PASSPORTCONTROLARRIVAL
DataRequired:
d = Peak Hour number of passengers 625
QUEUINGAREACHECKIN
a=Peakhournumberofpassengers 625
d=PeakHournumberofpassengers 625
t3=averageprocessingtimeperpassengers
(minutes) 0.50
ControlPositionsrequired:
s=Spacerequiredperpassengers(m2) 1.5
A=sx
M= 5.73
CHECKIN DESKS
DEPARTURECONCOURSE
A=QUEUINGAREACHECKIN 171.9
CHECK INDESKS
Datarequired:
a=Peakhournumberofpassengers 625
t1=Averageprocessingtimeperpassengers
(minutes) 2
Datarequired:
a=PeakHournumberofpassengers 625
y=Averageoccupancytimeperpassengers/visitors
(minutes) 20
s = Space required per person (m2) 1 5
N=
Desk Required:
s=Spacerequiredperperson(m2) 1.5
o=Numberofvisitorsperpassengers 1.5
DeskRequired:
N= 20.83
N+10% 22.92
1.5
A=DEPARTURECONCOURSE
1171.8
75
15
Year 2010 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Peak
Unit
Actual 625 834 1042 1146 1303
1 DEPARTURECURBS
m2
30 48 61 76 84 95
m2
2 DEPARTURECONCOURSE 240 1,219 1,564 1,954 2,149 2,443
3 QUEUINGAREACHECKIN
m2
240 179 229 287 315 358
4 CHECKINDESKS
pcs
14 24 31 38 42 48
5 PASSPORTCONTROL
m2
4 4 5 6 6 7
6 SECURITYCHECK
pcs
2 2 3 3 4 4
m2
7 DEPARTURELOUNGE 480 1,001 1,284 1,605 1,765 2,007
8 SECURITYCHECK GATEHOLDROOM
pcs
1 1 1 1 1 1
9 GATEHOLDROOM:
m2
100 210 210 210 210 210
i i i l Arrivingterminal
1 ARRIVALQUEUINGAREA PASSPORTCONTROL
m2
50 163 209 261 287 326
2 PASSPORTCONTROLARRIVAL
m2
4 6 8 10 11 12
m2
3 BAGGAGECLAIMAREA
m2
480 644 826 1,032 1,135 1,290
5 NUMBEROFBAGGAGECLAIMDEVICES
pcs
2 2 2 3 3 3
pcs
6 QUEUINGAREA ARRIVALCUSTOMS 30 45 57 72 79 90
7
ARRIVINGCONCOURSEWAITINGAREA(EXCLUDING
CONCESSIONS)
pcs
100 644 826 1,032 1,135 1,290
8 ARRIVALCUBS
pcs
30 41 52 65 72 82
Gross terminal area Grossterminalarea
PIAplannedSpacerequired: %
Commercialspace 35%
Passengersprocessing 40%
S t 25%
VS.
Supportspace 25%
Othernonusable 5%
Source: FAA
GROSSTERMINALAREA(m2)
2010
(actual) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Lowtrafficscenarios 4,060 11,101 12,400 14,087 15,775 17,463
Midtrafficscenario 4,060 11,101 14,087 17,463 19,150 21,698
Hightrafficscenarios 4,060 11,101 15,775 20,010 24,229 25,917
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Capacity calculations Capacitycalculations
Comparisonofgrossterminalareabyscenarios:
The difference between low and high scenario is Thedifferencebetweenlowandhighscenariois
upto50%oftotalarearequired
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Financial Implications FinancialImplications
Thetotalcostisdeterminedbythesquaremeteron
total areas and selected areas of terminal totalareasandselectedareasofterminal
Costperbuildingterminalvariesgreatly,averageof p g g y, g
3,000Europersquaremetersistakenasreference
InvestmentSchedule
(millions) 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL
Low
37 5 5 5 52
Mid
42 10 5 7 65
TheO&Mcostpertoterminalbuildingsisbetween
115$ to 860$ per square meter of the gross terminal
High
47 12 12 5 77
115$to860$persquaremeter,ofthegrossterminal
areaannually
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Conclusions Conclusions
Scenariosbaseforecastwasnecessarytoconsiderthe
alternatives in air traffic growth alternativesinairtrafficgrowth.
Theplanningprocessitselfisbasedontheservicequality
measuredintermofm2perpassengers.
Final gross terminal area is determine by the passenger Finalgrossterminalareaisdeterminebythepassenger
processingareas,nonpublicsupportareasandcommercial
areasbutlocalcircumstancesmatters.
Consideringinvestmentcosttoexpandterminalareaand
alsothecostofO&Mbeinglinkedtototalareaofthe
terminal PIA develop strategies that balance the demand terminal,PIAdevelopstrategiesthatbalancethedemand
forairtrafficandcapacityexpansions.
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Recommendations Recommendations
Primary:
Phasingexpansion buildingofcapacityis
recommendedtobedonein5yearperiod.
Systematicmeasurementsofservicelevel
i th i bl ff ti th measuringthevariablesaffectingthepassengers
servicelevels.
Stimulatespreadingtrafficonoffpeakshours
spreading traffic from peak hours to non peak spreadingtrafficfrompeakhourstononpeak
hours
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Recommendations Recommendations
Secondary:
Useofhightechtechnology Themostpromisingadvance
islikelytobethroughinformationtechnologyleadingto
machinereadablepassports,andselfticketingatthegate
orathomeviatheinternet.
Adoptable structure of terminal This can be done by Adoptablestructureofterminal Thiscanbedoneby
addingadditionalmodularsectiontoamainbuildingorby
reallocatingofareawithinsections.
FutureResearch thesurveybasedresearchonpassengers
willprovidemoreindepthinformationonpassengers
expectations expectations
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Thank you for attending Thankyouforattending
i ? Anyquestions?
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