SEISMIC HAZARD

Definitions

Seismic Risk, R ( ) = risk of damage of a structure

Seismic Hazard, ( ) = expected intensity of ground
motion at a site

Vulnerability, V () = vulnerability of a structure depending on
its resistance


R = H V
METHODOLOGY

1. Identification of seismic sources around the site under examination.

2. Determination of number and magnitude of earthquake events for
each seismic source according to historic data

3. Determination of an attenuation model in order to calculate ground
motion parameters for given magnitude and distance from the site of a
particular earthquake

4. Determination of the stochastic model for the appearance of
earthquake events. Usually the Poisson distribution is considered.

5. Evaluation of seismic hazard curve associating a particular ground
motion parameter (i.e. peak ground acceleration) with an annual
frequency of exceedence or a probability of exceedence in a given
time period.
METHODOLOGY

1. Identification of seismic sources around the site under examination.

2. Determination of number and magnitude of earthquake events for
each seismic source according to historic data

3. Determination of an attenuation model in order to calculate ground
motion parameters for given magnitude and distance from the site of a
particular earthquake

4. Determination of the stochastic model for the appearance of
earthquake events. Usually the Poisson distribution is considered.

5. Evaluation of seismic hazard curve associating a particular ground
motion parameter (i.e. peak ground acceleration) with an annual
frequency of exceedence or a probability of exceedence in a given
time period.

The determination of the number and magnitude of earthquake events for a particular
seismic source is performed through a Guttenberg-Richter relationship with the
following form:

log
10
N = a bM
where:
N = the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than M during a time period T.
a = a constant that measures the total number of earthquakes at the given source
b = a measure of the number of small versus large events.

The number of events N can be divided by the T years in order to get the annual
frequency of exceeding the M event magnitude: N
1
(M) = N(M) / T

Furthermore, N
1
can be divided by the source area A (or length L) in order to define
the annual frequency of exceedence per unit source area: N
2
(M) = N
1
M) / A


Effect of faults that produce large
earthquakes
Faults tend to produce essentially the
same size or characteristic earthquakes
having a relative narrow range of
magnitudes near the maximum.
Large earthquakes on
the fault are more probable than
indicated by the G-R
relationship

For each seismic source a table is
constructed, where the columns represent
different event magnitudes and the lines
different distances from the examined site.
At a bin of magnitude M
i
and distance R
j
is
given the annual frequency of having an
earthquake in the range of magnitude M
i ,

(
i
-dM/2 < M < M
i
+dM/2) and distance R
j
(R
j
-dR/2 < R < R
j
+dR/2). This annual
frequency is calculated from:

N
1,ij
= [ N
1
(
i
-dM/2) - N
1
(M
i
+dM/2) ]dA

where dA is at the portion of the source
area between R
j
-dR/2 and R
j
+dR/2.

Different tables are obtained for each
source and finally a global table is
constituted by adding the values in the
corresponding bins of the particular tables.

min

i

max
R
min




R
j
N
1,ij






R
max

METHODOLOGY

1. Identification of seismic sources around the site under examination.

2. Determination of number and magnitude of earthquake events for
each seismic source according to historic data

3. Determination of an attenuation model in order to calculate ground
motion parameters for given magnitude and distance from the site of a
particular earthquake

4. Determination of the stochastic model for the appearance of
earthquake events. Usually the Poisson distribution is considered.

5. Evaluation of seismic hazard curve associating a particular ground
motion parameter (i.e. peak ground acceleration) with an annual
frequency of exceedence or a probability of exceedence in a given
time period.
Another table is created by giving in each (M
i
, R
j
) bin the ground motion value
obtained from a corresponding attenuation relationship. Such relationships are those
given for peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations by Boore and Atkinson.
A similar but simpler relationship is the one given by Papazachos, in the form:
lna
g
= 3.88 + 1.12 M
s
1.65 ln(R+15)
where
a
g
= peak ground acceleration in cm/sec
2

R = distance from the source in km

min

i

max
R
min




R
j
s
ij






R
max

If we consider as s
ij
the values of the
chosen ground motion parameter for
the M
i
, R
j
pair we can define a region of
bins at which the s
ij
values are larger or
equal to a target value s
k
.

The addition of the corresponding N
1,ij

values from the first table gives the
annual frequency of exceedence N
1,k

for the target value s
k
.

s
ij
s
k
METHODOLOGY

1. Identification of seismic sources around the site under examination.

2. Determination of number and magnitude of earthquake events for
each seismic source according to historic data

3. Determination of an attenuation model in order to calculate ground
motion parameters for given magnitude and distance from the site of a
particular earthquake

4. Determination of the stochastic model for the appearance of
earthquake events. Usually the Poisson distribution is considered.

5. Evaluation of seismic hazard curve associating a particular ground
motion parameter (i.e. peak ground acceleration) with an annual
frequency of exceedence or a probability of exceedence in a given
time period.


Considering that the appearance of earthquake events follows the Poisson
distribution, the probability of exceeding s
k
in t years is given by the relationship:
p(t) = 1 exp(N
1,k
t)


Accordingly, for different s
k
values a hazard curve can be obtained with the s
k
value on
the vertical axis and on the horizontal either the probability of exceedence of s
k
or the
return period of events larger than s
k
which is the inverse of N
1,k
.
10 100 1000 10000 100000
TE ()
s
TE,
s
T
R
s
d p
t
) p (
t
T

1 ln
R
T
R
(years)

DEAGGREGATION
Determine earthquake parameters, principally magnitude and distance, to
consider in seismic-resistant design
Choose the most likely magnitude distance pair
Example
A seismic hazard analysis showed that:
The site is affected by earthquakes that happen within a region of radius R = 80
km from the site. The probability of occurrence of a seismic event is the same at
every point in this region.
The G-R relation for the earthquakes that have occurred in a period T = 120 years
in this region is:
logN = 6.55 0.85M ( = number of earthquakes )
1. Every how many years (in the average) an earthquake happens with 6.5.
Answer
logN = 6.55 0.85M
Annual rate:
1
= /T = N/120
logN
1
= logN log120
logN
1
= 6.55 0.85M 2.079
logN
1
= 4.471 0.85M
For = 6.5
logN
1
(M6.5) = 4.471 0.856.5 = 1.054
N
1
(M6.5) = 10
1.054
= 0.0883

Return period:
R
(6.5) = 1/
1
= 11.3 years.
Example (cont.)
2. Calculate the probability of occurrence of at least one earthquake of magnitude
7.5 in the next 100 years.
Answer
p(t) = 1 e
N1t

For = 7.5, t = 100:
logN
1
(M7.5) = 4.471 0.857.5 = 1.904
N
1
(M7.5) = 10
1.904
= 0.0125
p(t=100) = 1 e
0.0125100
= 0.713 = 71.3%
3. Calculate the probability of occurrence of at least one earthquake of magnitude
6.0 in the next 50 years and in a distance less than 20 km from the site.
Answer
logN
1
(M6.0) = 4.471 0.856.0 = 0.629
N
1
(M6.0) = 10
0.629
= 0.235
A
1
= 20
2
, = 80
2

1
(
1
) =
1
()(
1
/) = 0.23520
2
/80
2
= 0.01469
p(t=50) = 1 e
0.0146950
= 0.520 = 52.0%
EXERCISE 10

SOURCE AREA WITH A RADIUS OF 200 km

GUTTENBERG RICHTER RELATIONSHIP log N = 7.1 M

GRID 22 km

CALCULATE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE OF 0.50 g AT 50 YEAR PERIOD
Consider as attenuation relationship the one
given by Papazachos:
lna
g
= 3.88 + 1.12 M
s
1.65 ln(R+15)
Define the area that must be taken into account
Evaluate the seismicity of each square of the grid
from the Guttenberg Richter relationship:
logN = 7.1 - M
Define for each of the selected squares the
minimum magnitude that produces a 0.50 g
acceleration at the examined site.
Evaluate the annual frequency of exceedence of
the referred minimum magnitude for each square.
Calculate the annual frequency of exceedence of
0.50 g at the examined site.
Calculate the probability of exceedence in a 50
year period of the 0.50 g ground acceleration.
EXERCISE 11
SOURCE AREA WITH RADIUS 40 km PRODUCES A CHARACTERISTIC EARTHQUAKE
OF MAGNITUDE 6.0 WITH A RETURN PERIOD OF 10 YEARS.
LINE SOURCE WITH A LENGTH OF 40 km PRODUCES A CHARACTERISTIC
EARTHQUAKE OF MAGNITUDE 7.5 WITH A RETURN PERIOD OF 100 YEARS.
CALCULATE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE OF 0.25 g AND 0.50 g AT 50 YEAR
PERIOD.

Define for each source the portion of its area or length that produces the target
acceleration at the examined site as a result of the characteristic earthquake.
Define the annual frequency of appearance of the characteristic earthquake at the
defined portions.
Calculate the annual frequency of exceedence of the target acceleration at the
examined site.
Calculate the probability of exceedence of the target acceleration in a 50 year period.