Ace Institute of Management

Data Analysis and Modeling-II

Project Report
ON

Trend analysis of different industries and sectors of Nepal

Submitted to:
Mr. Prabhat Upreti

Submitted by:

Raghbendra Kumar Shah

(EMBA, Spring 2013 Batch, Second Semester)

Submission date:
21 Apr. 2014

Acknowledgement
This trend analysis report for Gross National Output of Nepal is prepared
in partial fulfilment of our course Data Analysis and Modeling II.
The data presented in this case study is extracted from
Central Bureau of Statistics of Nepal.
I would like to express my sincere thanks to CBS
for making data available in its website for public use.
Link for data:
http://cbs.gov.np/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/National-Account-Statistics-of-Nepal2013_14.pdf
http://www.wikihow.com/Do-Trend-Analysis-in-Excel

Table of Contents
Introduction: ................................................................................................................................................. 3
Objective: ...................................................................................................................................................... 3
1.

Trend analysis for Agriculture and forestry Industry ............................................................................ 4

2.

Trend analysis for Manufacturing Industry........................................................................................... 5

3.

Trend Analysis for Electricity, Gas and Water Industry... 6

4.

Trend analysis for Transport, Storage and Communication Industry ..7

5.

Trend analysis for Education Industry .................................................................................................. 8

Summary: .................................................................................................................................................... 10
Conclusion: .................................................................................................................................................. 10

List of Tables
Table1. Gross output of different industries ................................................................................................ 3
Table2. Trend analysis of Agriculture and forestry Industry......................................................................... 4
Table3. Forecast table for Agriculture and forestry Industry ....................................................................... 4
Table4. Trend analysis for Manufacturing Industry ...................................................................................... 5
Table5. Forecast table for Manufacturing Industry ...................................................................................... 5
Table6. Trend analysis for Electricity, Gas and Water Industry .................................................................... 6
Table7. Forecast table for Electricity, Gas and Water Industry .................................................................... 6
Table8. Trend analysis for Transport, Storage and Communication Industry .............................................. 7
Table9. Forecast table for Transport, Storage and Communication Industry .............................................. 7
Table10. Trend analysis for Education Industry............................................................................................ 8
Table11. Forecast table for Education Industry ............................................................................................ 9

List of Graphs
Graph1. Percent Trend line and linear trend line for Agriculture and forestry Industry.............................. 4
Graph2. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Manufacturing Industry ............................................. 5
Graph3. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Electricity, Gas and Wate Industry ............................ 7
Graph4. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Transport, Storage and Communication industry ..... 8
Graph5. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Education industry ..................................................... 9

Introduction:
Trend analysis tries to predict a trend like a bull market run and ride that trend until data suggests
a trend reversal (e.g. bull to bear market). Trend analysis is helpful because moving with trends,
and not against them, will lead to profit for an investor. An aspect of technical analysis that tries
to predict the future movement of a stock based on past data. Trend analysis is based on the idea
that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future. There
are three main types of trends: short-, intermediate- and long-term.
I have tried to present the trend analysis of gross national output of following sectors of Nepal.
The trend analysis is done for the year 2007 to 2013. Data was collected from Central Bureau of
Statistics, Nepal.

Objective:
The objective of this trend analysis is to visualize the output trend of different productive sectors
of Nepal in time line of eight years from 2007 to 2013. Here we will analyse trend of mainly 5
basic needs in Nepal which are heart of development, they are as follows:
-

Agriculture and forestry,

Manufacturing,
Electricity, Gas and Water
Transport, Storage and Communication
Education

The slope of trend line will determine the present output trend as well as future can also be
predicted. The figures in number alone cannot determine the actual trend of any system. To get
actual trend pattern, trend analysis needs to be done by collecting data for at least five years. The
Data used is from NATIONAL ACCOUNTS of NEPAL 2012/13 and presented is expressed in
million rupees. The summarised table is:
Table1. Gross output of different industries

Gross National Output (In Million NPR)

Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Agriculture
& Forestry

Manufacturing

Electricity, Gas
& Water

Transport, storage &

Communication

Education

299385

186496

25106

121799

44979

329401

204107

26418

133125

53328

409987

233408

26273

159245

63263

514871

252869

29478

164024

80889

614472

284007

31492

182706

92741

670387

325193

34751

213813

110139

725054

355042

41562

252842

120382

1. Trend analysis for Agriculture & Forestry Industry:

Most of People in Nepal are dependent on agriculture and forestry field. Most of people belong to
middle class, so their source of income is mostly agriculture and forestry field. Thats why this industry is
important for trend analysis.

Trend Analysis for Agriculture Forestry

Year

Agri. & Fores.(Y)

2007 1
2008 2
2009 3
2010 4
2011 5
2012 6
2013 7
Total 28

299385
329401
409987
514871
614472
670387
725054
3563557

x= X-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3

xY

x2

= b0+b1x

Y/ *100

(Y- )/ *100

277279.86
354546.43
431813.00
509079.57
586346.14
663612.71
740879.29

107.97
92.91
94.95
101.14
104.80
101.02
97.86

7.97
-7.09
-5.05
1.14
4.80
1.02
-2.14

-898155 9
-658802 4
-409987 1
0 0
614472 1
1340774 4
2175162 9
2163464 28

Table2. Trend analysis of Agriculture & forestry Industry

Here, B0 = 509079.6 and B1= 77266.57
Estimated Trend line is given by:

= 509079.6 + 77266.57x

Percent of Trend for Agriculture

110.00
105.00
100.00
95.00
90.00

Y/*100

85.00

Linear (Y/*100)

80.00
75.00
70.00
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Graph1. Percent Trend line and linear trend line for Agriculture & forestry Industry
Interpretation:
From above trend line of agriculture & forestry, output had decreasing trend till year 2008 and
started to have increasing trend till 2011 but the increasing trend could not sustain and falling till
2013. The maximum fluctuation occurs in year 2007. The overall output growth is negative and
trend line for last seven year from 2007 to 2013 is declining. The forecast for next three years
will be on the basis of this trend is as:
Forecast of Agriculture & forestry for next three years (In Million NPR)
4

Year
2014
2015
2016

= b0+ b1x

x= X-

8
9
10

4
5
6

818145.88
895412.45
972679.02

Table3. Forecast table for Agriculture & ForestryIndustry

2. Trend analysis for Manufacturing Industry

Development and facility in Nepal are dependent on manufacturing Industry. So the life style of people
is linked with this industry. Thats why this industry is important for trend analysis.

Trend Analysis of Manufacturing Sector

Year X
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total

Manufacturing
(Y)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

x= X-

186496
204107
233408
252869
284007
325193
355042
1841122

-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3

xY

x2

-559488 9
-408214 4
-233408 1
0 0
284007 1
650386 4
1065126 9
798409 28

= b0+b1x

Y/*100

(Y-)/ *100

177473.61
205988.21
234502.82
263017.43
291532.04
320046.64
348561.25

105.08
99.09
99.53
96.14
97.42
101.61
101.86

5.08
-0.91
-0.47
-3.86
-2.58
1.61
1.86

Table4. Trend analysis for Manufacturing Industry

B0 = 263017.43 and B1 = 28514.61
Trend line is given by
= 263017.43 + 28514.61x

Percent of Trend for Manufacturing

106.00
104.00
102.00
100.00
98.00
96.00
94.00
92.00
90.00
2006

Y/ *100
Linear (Y/ *100)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Graph2. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Manufacturing Industry
Interpretation:
5

From above trend line of manufacturing industry output, gross domestic output of manufacturing
sector had decreasing trend till year 2008, bounce back in year 2009 but again decline in year
2010. The output is again getting in increasing trend from year 2011. The maximum fluctuation
occurs in year 2007. The overall output growth is negative and trend line for last seven year from
2007 to 2013 is declining. The forecast for next three years will be on the basis of this trend is as:
Forecast of Manufacturing Industry for next three years (In Million NPR)
Year
X
x= X= b0+ b1x
2014
8
4
377075.87
2015
9
5
405590.48
2016
10
6
434105.09
Table5. Forecast table for Manufacturing Industry

3. Trend Analysis for Electricity, Gas & Water Industry:

We all are very much familiar with the availability and supply of Electricity, Gas & Water in our

country. Rather than supply we are familiar with shortage of these things. Thats why this industry
is important for trend analysis.

Trend analysis for Electricity,Gas & Water Industry

Year

Electricity, Gas,
water(Y)

2007 1
2008 2
2009 3
2010 4
2011 5
2012 6
2013 7
Total 28

25106
26418
26273
29478
31492
34751
41562
215080

x= X-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3

xY

x2

-75318 9
-52836 4
-26273 1
0 0
31492 1
69502 4
124686 9
71253 28

= b0+b1x

Y/*100

(Y-)/ *100

23091.46
25636.21
28180.96
30725.71
33270.46
35815.21
38359.96

108.72
103.05
93.23
95.94
94.65
97.03
108.35

8.72
3.05
-6.77
-4.06
-5.35
-2.97
8.35

Table6. Trend analysis for Electricity, Gas & Water Industry

B0 = 30725.71 and B1 = 2544.75
Estimated Trend line is given by:
=30725.71 + 2544.75x

Percent of Trend for Electricity,Gas & Water

Industry
110.00
105.00
Y/*100

100.00

Linear (Y/*100)

95.00
90.00
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Graph3. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Electricity, Gas & Water Industry
Interpretation:
From above trend line of Electricity, Gas & Water industry, output had remain constant till 2007
then decreasing trend till year 2009, keep increasing in year 2010 but again decline in year 2011
and then increased till year 2011. The maximum fluctuation occurs in year 2009. The overall
output growth is negative and trend line for last seven year from 2007 to 2013 is declining. The
forecast for next three years will be on the basis of this trend is as:
Forecast of Electricity, Gas and Water Industry for next three years (In Million NPR)
Year
X
x= X= b0+ b1x
2014
8
4
40904.71
2015
9
5
43449.46
2016
10
6
45994.21
Table7. Forecast table for Electricity, Gas & Water Industry

4. Trend analysis for Transport, storage & Communication Industry

Another big issues emerged in Nepal is Transport, storage and communication which has hiked the price
of almost everything. Thats why this industry is important for trend analysis.

Trend analysis for Transport, storage & Communication

Transport,
Year X storage & comm.
(Y)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

121799
133125
159245
164024
182706
213813
252842
1227554

x=
X-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3

xY

x2

-365397 9
-266250 4
-159245 1
0 0
182706 1
427626 4
758526 9
577966 28

= b0+b1x

Y/*100

(Y-)/*100

113439.93
134081.57
154723.21
175364.86
196006.50
216648.14
237289.79

107.37
99.29
102.92
93.53
93.21
98.69
106.55

7.37
-0.71
2.92
-6.47
-6.79
-1.31
6.55

Table8. Trend analysis for Transport, storage & Communication Industry

7

B0: 175364.86 and B1: 20641.64

Estimated Trend Line is given by:

= 175364.86 + 20641.64x

Percent of Trend for Transport, storage &

Communication
110.00
105.00
100.00
Y/*100
95.00

Linear (Y/*100)

90.00
85.00
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Graph4. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Transport, storage &
Communication industry
Interpretation:
From above trend line of Transport, storage & Communication industry, output had decreasing
trend till year 2008, increasing trend in 2009 then after decline in 2010 and remains constant till
2011 then increasing trend continues up to 2013. The maximum fluctuation occurs in year 2010.
The overall output growth is negative and trend line for last seven year from 2007 to 2013 is
declining. The forecast for next three years will be on the basis of this trend is as:
Forecast of Transport, Storage and communication Industry for next three years (In
Million NPR)
Year
X
x= X= b0+ b1x
2014
8
4
257931.42
2015
9
5
278573.06
2016
10
6
299214.70
Table9. Forecast table for Transport, storage & Communication industry

5. Trend analysis for Education Industry

Education is most important part of any country and play key role in development. From start to end,
Education is basic thing to perform well in any discipline. Thats why this industry is important for trend
analysis.

Trend analysis for Education

Year X

Education
(Y)

x= X-

xY

x2

= b0+b1x

Y/*100

(Y-)/*100

2007

44979

-3

-134937

41248.46

109.04

9.04

2008

53328

-2

-106656

54438.07

97.96

-2.04

2009

63263

-1

-63263

67627.68

93.55

-6.45

2010

80889

80817.29

100.09

0.09

2011
2012
2013
Total

5
6
7

92741
110139
120382
565721

1
2
3

92741 1
220278 4
361146 9
369309 28

94006.89
107196.50
120386.11

98.65
102.74
100.00

-1.35
2.74
0.00

Table10. Trend analysis for Education

B0: 80817.29 and B1: 13189.61
Estimated Trend line is given by

= 80817.29 + 13189.61x

Percent of Trend for Education

120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00

Y/*100

70.00

Linear (Y/*100)

60.00
50.00
40.00
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Graph5. Percent trend line and linear trend line for Education
Interpretation:
From above trend line of Education sector, output had increasing trend over all the period. The
maximum fluctuation occurs in year 2007. The overall output growth is positive and trend line
for last seven year from 2007 to 2013 is increasing. The forecast for next three years will be on
the basis of this trend is as:

Year
2014
2015
2016

Forecast of Education for next three years (In Million NPR)

X
x= X= b0+ b1x
8
9
10

4
5
6

133575.73
146765.34
159954.95

Table11. Forecast table for Education Industry

Summary:
We have analysed trend analysis for five important sector of Nepalese industry and interpreted about it.
From above trend analysis, all the important sectors were in declining trend except the education
sector. It is clear that there is sign of recovery of all sectors from year 2010-2013 but in agriculture and
forestry sector its decline from year 2010-2013. The most unproductive year was 2007 where four out of
five sectors had nosedive.

Conclusion:
The trend analysis not only helps to analyse the past data and draw the past trend but also helps to
forecast the future data which can helps to be prepared for any incident occurs and also for any good
thing coming in future.

********

10