What Russia's annexation of Crimea means for Ukraine and the US

By Doug Ledford An expert on foreign policy is warning that Russia's annexation of Crimea could be the first step in a widening effort to expand its territory, and the United States should be the nation that subdues this aggression. The lower house of Russian parliament voted March 20, to allow Crimea's addition into Russia. The finalities are expected to be completed following the support of the upper house of parliament and Russian President Vladimir Putin's signature. "The Russian intervention in Crimea represents elements of both realism and nationalism," according to Zane Albayati, 27, a foreign policy analyst. "The crisis in Crimea could be just the beginning of a Russian quest to once again expand and reclaim its perceived historical greatness." Albayati has a bachelor's degree in political science and has spent several years analyzing United States foreign policy. Albayati is also a columnist and contributor to The National Interest . Crimea's election committee has backed the absorption into the Russian Federation, where the majority of citizens are ethnically Russian, Albayati said. The White House said the Crimean referendum is a violation of international law, which will have an adverse effect on the country of Ukraine in the future.

"The annexation of Crimea can only be a negative development for Ukraine," Albayati said. "The blatant disregard by the Russians for the principal of territorial integrity sets a dangerous precedent." Crimea is located in the southern region of Ukraine and on the northern shore of the Black Sea, where many Russian and Ukrainian interests are concerned. Following the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991, the possession of Crimea has been a topic of debate. These recent developments are one of numerous attempts by Russia to regain control over the autonomous republic. Therefore, the United States and Europe have issued sanctions against Russian officials. These sanctions are designed to compel the Russians to release their control on Crimea, in hopes that events similar to the Georgian War of 2008 are not repeated, Albayati said. "Putin did not give up South Ossetia or Abkhazia when he deployed Russian forces there in the summer of 2008, during the Georgian War," Albayati said. "The White House aspires to bring pressure on Moscow economically in the hope that it will not pursue future expansion into Ukraine and beyond; however, Crimea is gone." The escalating tensions in Crimea have been overshadowed by the recent global concern over missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. However, there are a variety of reasons the American public should be concerned about the developments in Crimea, including the status of the United States as a lone superpower, Albayati said. "The American people may not ponder the issue as much as it deserves, but remaining the only superpower is vitally important, not only to the nation's economic well-being, but also

because the United States remains the greatest force for stability and peace in the world," Albayati said. In addition, the effect of Russia's annexation of Crimea has complicated the diplomatic relationship between the United States and Russia. Although it is too early to tell whether the U.S. and Russia will enter into a second Cold War, further Russian expansion may prompt a military response, Albayati said. "The relationship will not dissolve into the existential confrontation that existed in the last century, provided that the Russians do not attempt to deploy forces further, especially in a NATO country like Estonia, " Albayati said. "The annexation of Crimea does not necessitate war; however, the U.S. must maintain the NATO alliance and draw a clear red line that prohibits future Russian expansion." Thus, after the annexation of Crimea is complete, the focus will become clear on what steps the United States government needs to follow. The focus is on Russia for now, but there is increased concern over what influence these developments will have on other nations, such as China. Taiwan is the most dangerous potential flashpoint in the world and China will only become more confident in its future designs over Taiwan in the wake of Russias annexation of Crimea, Albayati said. "The U.S. must recognize that Crimea is under Russian occupation and will remain so, no matter how many sanctions are applied to reverse that fact," Albayati said. "Beijing is watching Crimea and the U.S. response with a watchful eye."

Zane Albayati is a contributor for The National Interest