2012 International Conference on Biological and Biomedical Sciences Advances in Biomedical Engineering, Vol.

A Short-term Load Forecasting Based On Fuzzy Identification In Power System Liang Yu1, Wang Na1,2, Fan Li-ping1
1

School of Information Engineering, Shenyang University of Chemical Technology Shenyang,China

2

Shenyang University of Technology Shenyang, China

E-mail: tom771220@yahoo.com.cn, coco111_58@yahoo.com.cn, coco1110_58@yahoo.com.cn Keywords: Short-term Load Forecastinge; minimal two- multiplication; Fuzzy Identification;ANN

Abstract.Due to the industrial structure adjustment, the change of resident consumption ability and pattern of consumption, and market-oriented and so on, Short-term power load forecasting for urban plans faces considerable difficulties. Aiming at the limitation of short-term load forecasting technique for power system under the particular circumstance, we presents the methods of classifying load by using fuzzy pattern identify theory, then constructs all kinds of ANN according to class. The method is applied to a short-term load forecasting, and guaranteed exactness and stability of the results. In this paper, a neural network prediction model was established, the example in Heilongjiang was given to validate the accuracy of the algorithm. 1. Introduction Power system load forecasting is one of the important work of Power system scheduling, electricity, planning and management, it is one of the important work of management to ensure safe and economic power system. improving load forecasting is an important aspect of scientific management. power is conducive to the development of rational construction plan ,it will help improve power system Economic and social benefits. electricity is also not be a large number of storage power production and consumption is almost the same time. To ensure power system reliability and security, power planning and operation scheduling must be based on the load forecasting. Short term load forecasting techniques is broadly divided into traditional and modern prediction algorithm prediction algorithm, one of the most successful of the early 90s than the proposed artificial neural network (ANN) technology[1-2]. However, the electric load is affected by many uncertain factors, the sudden change in weather, holidays and some special cases, the power load curves with the normal working load shape change curve shape quite different, a single neural network can not of the above load cases [3-4]. In this paper ,First ,In accordance with the Several factors that have greater impact on the load showing the historical load conditions, then use fuzzy clustering analysis method that load data out of the classification, classified according to the historical data of each load class were learning trained neural network, Establishing different weights of the neural network model; Finally, the evaluation function in the sample data and forecasts to find the most similar to the load moment of class, and then use the appropriate neural network model for short-term load forecasting of power systems. 2. Classify the Historical Load 2.1 Expressed by the Factors that Influenced the Historical Load
978-1-61275-027-9/10/$25.00 2012 IERI
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ICBBS 2012

Although the neural network training samples implied for the weather and special events, but due to too much information implicit in the sample, resulting in neural network training is not good, affecting the prediction accuracy[5]. Currently, the biggest problem of short-term load forecasting is not adding weather the impact of mutations and other special events to the load forecast effectively. For these problems, according to the classification of load factors, the first factor under the load into holidays: working days from Tuesday to Friday (denoted as 1, hereinafter referred to as 1), after work on Monday and holidays Day (2), Saturday and Sunday (3), major festivals such as Christmas and the Mid-Autumn Festival (4) and other types; then load into the meteorological factors: clear (1), Cloudy (2), Yam (3), light rain (4), moderate (5), rain (6), thunderstorm (7), snow (8), in the snow (9), Snow (10); then in accordance with the temperature of the load is divided into: ultra high temperature (1), high temperature (2), the temperature (3), low temperature (4), ultra low temperature (5); final in accordance with the time of any special events are classified in a particular event occurs is denoted by 1, if any, recorded as 2. After the above combination of features classified together are the type of moment that, for example, tomorrow is Monday, this time at 12 noon tomorrow, the weather was light rain, low temperatures, no special event occurs, then tomorrow, the load class is 12 ( 1,4,3,2,12). 12 that the load is 12 noon this moment. 2.2 Fuzzy Cluster Analysis In this paper, the last 2 years of historical data clustering analysis. As follows: 1) Standardization of the raw data To construct the fuzzy relationship matrix, the sample must be pretreated to make the sample data compression [0,1] closed interval, the first obtained mean and standard deviation of n samples jindicators
xj = 1 n xij n i =1

(1) (2)

sj =

1 n ( xij x j ) 2 n i =1

Standardized value of the original data

x ' ij = xij x j sj

(3)

Run extreme standardization formula, data compression will be standardized to [0,1] closed interval
xij =
' xij x 'j min

x 'j max x 'j min

(4)

Where
2)

x 'j max

and

x 'j min

represent the minimum and maximum of

xij

Calibration Establishment fuzzy similarity relation of historical data R, R can be expressed as a similarity r r matrix R = [ ij ], where ij is the degree of similarity that historical data, also known as membership function
rij =

(x
k =1

ik

xi )( x jk x j )
2

(5)
2

(x
k =1

ik

xi )

(x
k =1

jk

xj)

3)

Clustering

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Through this calibration, we have fuzzy similarity matrix, this time, transitive closure t (R) of R can be obtained through Square method, and t (R) is a fuzzy equivalence matrix, select different values, have different level sets, by dynamic clustering. Based on historical data, =0.7 Sample set will be broken down into 25 categories, each category includes the number of samples varied, but for the individual sample data contains only a small number of categories, it should be integrated into category with the most similar be considered, thus avoiding the problem of insufficient sample data in some special cases 3. Structural Load Forecasting Neural Network Model 3.1 ANN Prediction Model In this paper, RBF neural network (RBF) is used, it is not only the difference between good and extrapolation capabilities, but also to avoid the cumbersome lengthy calculation, make learning more efficient than the usual BP method is much faster. Figure 1.

Figure 1. RBF artificial neural network model

Selecting RBF centers through self-organizing learning ,in this method, RBF center is moving, and through self-organization to determine its location. RBF center selection can be used k-means clustering algorithm. Basis function parameters determined, the output layer is simple calculation. Corresponds to the multi-input single-output network, with least square method so that the value function is minimized, it is
E=

(6) It can achieve the purpose of adjusting the weights i . Where: Fi is the actual value; Fi as predicted. Fuzzy clustering analysis based on the above 25 sub-categories to create 25 artificial neural network with different weights and topology structure of model. The first layer is the neural network input layer, the third layer is output layer, the result is a prediction, as a neuron ,in the middle hidden layer from 2 neurons began to form a network to gradually expand the number of neurons, the network structure of continuous improvement. The annual cycle of load was changed, but it also has a slow growth trend. To make artificial neural network to adapt to this trend, the weight must be constantly updated 3.2 Establishment of the Evaluation Function As time goes on, the system load changes in the structure will occur slowly, when the selected date and projections at the known far apart, even though they are very similar weather conditions, forecast accuracy is not high, so check before 5 weeks to be elected as a known range at the same time, sampling procedures can also shorten the time it takes. As there may be some special cases, so this should be within 5 weeks in the sample selection and prediction of weather at exactly the same with the known at times almost impossible, so if we can not be found in the samples and the prediction at
236

1 n [ Fi Fi ]2 2 i =1

the same type of known date. In this case, we use the method to establish the evaluation function to identify the type known daily load . Evaluation function as follows:
= T = ( 1 , 2 , k ) T = ( 1 , 2 , k )

Which is the norm of , is factors vector of Known to date, is factors vector of forecast day, is deviation from the set, according to the actual situation in different parts to decision by the experience. 4. Practical Example The method uses a practical example of data validation, as shown in Table 1. the required data provided by the Heilongjiang Provincial Electricity Authority. The results show that the prediction algorithm used in the prediction accuracy is satisfactory.
TABLE I. time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Practical examples of data Load ForecastMW 2949 2838 2823 2854 2942 3123 3536 3597 3472 3621 3692 3727 error% 0.81% 2.45% 1.47% 1.78% 0.82% 0.92% 1.67% 0.81% 1.41% 1.01% 0.38% 1.56%

(7)

Actual loadMW 2973 2770 2782 2804 2918 3152 3596 3568 3522 3658 3706 3786

5. Conclusion This paper used fuzzy clustering analysis and evaluation function and other methods, introducing the concept of fuzzy to the load forecast, a good solution to the problem of insufficient resources sample data and neural network processing fuzzy information can not directly deal with the defects, and for the structure different weights of neural network model provided. In this paper the methods used to varying degrees in several ways to improve the accuracy of load forecasting, holidays and weather in the forecast of the load moment of mutations is particularly effective. References [1] Ranaweera D K, Hubbele N F, Papalexopoulos A D.Application of radial basis function neural network model for short-term load forecasting[J].IEEE Proc-GenerTrans Distrib,1995,142(1):45~50. [2] Piras A,Buchenel B,Jaccard Y.Heterogeneous artificial neural network for short-term electrical load forecasting [J].IEEE Trans on Power System,1996,11(1):397~402
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[3] Wei wei, Niu Dong-xiao, Chang Zheng.New Development of Load Forecast Technology,Journal of North China Electric Power University.Vol.29,No.1 Jan,2002:10-15 [4] Liang Hai-feng,Tu Guang-yu,Tang Hong-wei.Application of genetic algorithm neural network for short term load forecasting of power system,Power System Technology,Vol.25 No 1,Jan.2001:49-53 [5] Iu Dong-xiao,Qi Jian-xun.The Research of the Load NForecasting Method of the Variable Structure Neural network Based on the Fuzzy Treatment,Operations Research and Management Science, 2001102:86-92V.

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