Presentation on HIS

Shogo Uchida, JICA Study Team

Workshop October 18, 2010

Before this study

There is no royal road to learning.

There is no officers road to technical transfer

Contents of Presentation
Basic Concept of Person Trip Survey Person Trip Survey in Japan Person Trip Survey in JICA Studies Basic Concept of OD Matrix Demand Forecast and Interview Items Sampling of HIS in Karachi

Basic Concept of Person Trip Survey

What is Person Trip Survey?

Survey for trip information of people:

What When From

kind of person makes a trip

where to where For what purpose By which transport mode

All trip information for a person in a day Household Interview Survey (HIS) is the main part of PT Survey

What is trip
(1) Commuting Office (2) Business

Home (5) To Home

(4) Shopping (3) Business Shop

Customer

Walk

Bus

Minibus

Rickshaw

Home 1 Trip

Office

Why?

Base for transport analysis to formulate the transport master plan

Analysis

of peoples trip behavior Analysis of trip flow in relation with urban structure and land use Basic data for Demand Forecast

Analysis of Peoples Trip Behavior

Trip purpose

Peak time of travel Ave. travel time Ave. trip length Mode Preference Bus Rickshaw Taxi Private Car Walk Ave. no. of trips by age, gender, income level, ..etc Ave. no. of transfer

Person Trip Survey in Japan

50 years history

Person Trip Surveys in Japan

Official Survey by Local Government

Need

approval from Ministry for Internal Affairs Subsidy from GOJ

Major Cities (more than 40) 1962 Every 10 year Used for transport master plan Method: household drop-off/pick-up Sampling: household list

Person Trip Surveys in Japan

Person Trip Survey in Japan

Person Trip Surveys in Japan

Trip rate: Around 3.0 (who made trips) Around 2.5 (total)

Person Trip Survey by JICA in the World

More than 30 cities

Person Trip Surveys by JICA in the World

Characteristics of JICA PT Surveys

Short period Unreliable socio-economic data

Adjusted

by screen line survey

Subcontract to local firms

No

experience of local firms in PT surveys

With socio-economic survey Opinion survey Direct interview method

Issues of JICA PT Survey

Rapid growth and development Rapid motorization

Rapid

changes in transport pattern O/D becomes old in several years.

Technical transfer
Survey Demand

forecast model

Basic Concept of OD Matrix

What is OD matrix and how to produce from samples

Analysis of Peoples Movement

B-Zone A-Zone A-Zone B-Zone

Bus Terminal

C-Zone D-Zone

Potential corridors will be identified.

C-Zone D-Zone

Traffic TrafficFlow Flowon onBus BusRoute Route

Desired DesiredRoutes Routes

OD Basic data for transport analysis

Origin-Destination Matrices Generation

Zone1 Zone1 Zone2 ZoneN Total

Zone2

ZoneN

Total
by Mode Purpose Income level Age Gender Etc.

Attraction Attraction

Expansion of samples

Population size (total number) of trips is unknown. Sampling rate of the trip information can not be calculated.

A Town A Town B Town C Town D Town Total 12.1% 3.0% 4.2% 1.5%

B Town 3.0% 24.2% 3.6% 1.8%

C Town 4.2% 3.6% 18.2% 2.4%

D Town 1.5% 1.8% 2.4% 12.1%

Total

Expansion factor (EF) = 1/ (sample rate of person)

Trips are expanded based on person

1 trip of Mr. A is converted to EF trips - Karachi HIS: 1 trip 80 trips (40,000*5)/16,000,000 = 80

Screen Line Survey

Traffic count along a screen line, which divides the survey area To count the total number of traffic crossing the line To check the O/D matrix produced from HIS

Lyari River was selected as the screen line 3.5 million persons cross the screen line per day (2008, JICA)

Screen Line

Cordon Line Survey

Samples of HIS are only residents:

movement

Karachi:
Highway Airport Station

(3 points)

of visitors is not included

O/D interview survey at cordon lines: enter-exit points

Roads Airports Ports Stations

JICA 2008 Study

90,000

visitors from/to highway cordons 15,000 visitors by railway 10,000 visitors by air

Vehicle O/D

HIS only collects trips by residents. Other surveys or models are needed to estimate Vehicle O/D.

Trip by Residents Non-Residents Taxi (empty) Truck

Within the area OK No No No

Inside-Outside OK No (OK by CL survey) No No

Demand Forecast and Interview Items

Why we ask the question?

Demand Forecast Model

Traditional Demand Forecast Model 4 step demand forecast

Trip

production Trip generation/ attraction model Trip distribution model Trip assignment model

OD of Trips is the base of the model

Linkage

of trips of a person is ignored. Modeling becomes simple and stable.

Trip Production Model

Simple

TP = a P
TPc = ac Pc
TPc = aci Pci
i

a = trip rate per person P = population of Karachi c = 1: car own household c = 2: household without car i: personal attributes - Age & Gender - Age & Gender & Income - Age & Gender & Income & Job status p: trip purpose

TPcp = acpi Pci

i

Complex

TP = f ( x1 , x2 ,..., xn )

x = all available variables

Trip Generation/ Attraction Model

Simple

TPr = ar Pr
TPrc = arc Prc
TPrc = arci P
i

ar = trip rate per person of zone r Pr = population of zone r c = 1: car own household c = 2: household without car

TPrcp = arcpi Prci

i

i: personal attributes - Age & Gender rci - Age & Gender & Income - Age & Gender & Income & Job status p: trip purpose h: peak factor

Complex

TP = f ( x1 , x2 ,..., xn )

x = all available variables

Necessary Model Parameters

Level 0: Must 1: Need 2 3 4 5 Production, G/A per person by car-ownership by age group by purpose by gender by car-license status by income group by job status OD All by time, by mode by purpose by age group, gender by income group by job status

Necessary Information

For modeling
Household

For survey
Accurate

Income

Level Car ownership Job Status (worker, jobless, students,) Age, gender Car license Personal income level Zone of household Zone of working place/ school

address Telephone number Name Family structure

Trip Information
Origin and destination (address, type) Departure and arrival times Mode Purpose Transfer points Cost (fare) of transport Self-Drive or not

Linked trip and unlinked trip

Linked trip
Trip

on purpose on mode

Unlinked trip
Trip

Linked trip is the base of demand forecast Info. on unlinked trip is used to make the present OD by mode
Used

for calibration
Walk

Unlinked trips Walk Bus Minibus

Home 1 Trip (Linked Trip)

Office

Priority mode of a linked trip

OD of Linked Trip:
purpose clear By mode not clear
By

Simply decide by hierarchy

Train Bus Car Taxi Rickshaw Walk
Low High

OD by mode is made using Priority mode. Priority mode is the major mode in a trip. Identification of priority mode is not easy

Usage of OD by mode depends on modeling

Sampling and Expansion

Statistical approach

Statistical background

N n p (1 p ) error = Z N 1 n

Z = 1.96 for 95% confidence interval N : Population size n : Sample size p : % of answer
Formulation of Error

1 n= 1 (1 1 / N ) Z 2 + 2 N p (1 p ) e Z2 0.25 2 e
Necessary no. of samples (N is large, p=0.5)

Error and no. of samples under 95% confidence interval 20

15
400 samples can achieve 5% error level

Error (%)

10

0 0 500 1000 No. of samples 1500 2000

Sampling rates in Japan

Sampling rate is calculated using

Sampling example:
Tokyo:

RSD = relative error = 20% Z = 1.96 N : Population size (Total trips) r : Sampling rate K : No. of zones No. of purposes No. of modes

( K 1) (1 r ) RSD = Z rN

2.68% Nagoya: 2.8% Osaka/Kyoto: 2.3%

Sampling check after the survey

Example problem Male : Female

53.9%

: 46.1% in Karachi (1998 Census) 560 : 440 from 1000 samples Is this OK? (Should be 539: 461 .?) If not OK, sampling was wrong.

Chi-square test
2 =
i =1 N

(Oi Ei )2
Ei
5%

Oi : Observed value Ei : Expected value

Degree of freedom

1 3.841

2 5.991

3 7.815

4 9.488

5 11.070

Sampling check after the survey

Example Problem: Its OK. 2 2 ( ) ( ) 560 539 440 461 2 = + = 1.775 < 3.841
539 461

Test: distribution of gender and age group

Need

population data by gender by age group

If expansion factor is determined by gender by age, this test is not required.

Also

need reliable data by gender by age group

Limitation of HIS data

Breakdown will decrease reliability Example:

OD

(UC Level) by purpose by mode by gender by age group maybe unreliable OD (UC Level) by mode by income level by car ownership by occupation almost impossible

Need to check relative error before using breakdown Relative Error

Within

20%

p N n (1 p ) = 1.96 p N 1 pn
N : Population size n : Sample size p : % of answer

Breakdown Check: Example

Trips by mode by purpose by town Example: Purpose 20% (to work, for example), Mode 12% (Car), Town (1/24) p=0.2*0.12*(1/24)=0.01 (1%) n = 10,000 (per town) 0.8% < p < 1.2% Relative error = 20% OK In case less n (ex. 2,000) (breakdown by age, gender, etc) 0.5% < p < 1.5% Relative error = 44% No use Trips by mode by UC Example: Mode 20% (Minibus), UC (1/200) p=0.2* (1/200)=0.001 (0.1%) n = 400 (per UC) 0% < p < 0.4% Relative error = 300% No use

Check is available after HIS

Why household survey for person trip?

Traditional demand forecast uses trips. Personal interview

Only Only

Random sampling of trips is practically impossible. HH survey can collect many samples by one visit. Reliability can be improved by larger no. of samples.

trips for his/hers

HH interview
trips for only the members of the HH

Reliability of HH sampling is lower than that of personal sampling

HH survey is the best in terms of cost and time performance.

Sampling and Expansion

Population Household
sampling
Household
Expansion factor in case statistics of age and gender are not available

samples

sampling (all)
Member

Member

Calculate expansion factor

All trips

Trip
Expansion

Trip

Data Layout of the Result

1 Trip = 1 Record (is popular)

Household Information Personal Attribution Trip information Expansion Factor

Trip-ID

Same data repeated

Date

Origin

Desti nation

Purpose

Start time

end time

Mode-1

Mode-n

Sampling in Karachi
As random as possible

Sampling

Samples should represent the population

Sampling

should be random

Random sampling is very difficult when a list of households is not available.

In

Japan, sample households are selected randomly from household lists.

In Karachi, randomness cannot be ensured; however, sampling should be as much as random.

Condition of randomness in PT Survey

Sample households should reflect proportion of socio-economic of UC. Area distribution of sample households should also be random.

Even if this sample reflect the socioeconomic proportions of the population, trip information is not random. trip trip trip

trip

Sub division of UC

UC is divided into 3-5 sub zones to ensure the randomness of place. This sub-divided UC is called Survey Zone more than 750 survey zones Accurate UC boundary maps are necessary.

Sampling in a sub-zone

There are three methods:

Put

identity number to every houses in maps and select samples at random (1) Visit a house for every 100 buildings (2) Pick up a representative area in the sub-zone and visit all the houses (3)

Comparison of three methods

No Advantage Disadvantage Evaluation

- Randomness is ensured. - Time-consuming work Impassible due to limited resources - Difficult to reach the target due to low literacy of surveyors for map reading - Randomness of place is ensured. - Field survey is simple and practical. - Can avoid surveyors preference for house selection. - Surveyors mobilization is easy. - Surveyors tend to visit houses which is easy to access (in terms of hospitality and friendly) - Randomness is ensured only if the area represents the population. - Lower area randomness Apply this method under proper supervising If the sub-zone consists of similar type of houses, this is proper method.

Sampling method in this Study

Mixture of 2 and 3 Select representative blocks in the center of a Survey Zone Deploy enumerators along streets in the blocks Easy to supervise and organize

Date check (Editing) and Coding

Editor: check the survey forms after interview

Logical

Example of editing
Bus

check Fill in blank, if possible Decipher hand writing

Coder: translate text to number

Find

zone code from address is the major work.

stop near origin and destination can be translated to address. Gender can be assumed by the name. 1 and 7 can be distinguished by other information. 06:00 after 9:00 may be 18:00