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uen. (iet.) Wesley K. Claik
Bi. Phillip A. Kaibei
8 Apiil 2u14


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A joint invite fiom the 0kiainian National Secuiity Auvisoi anu Senioi membei of
theii Pailiament foi help in assessing theii situation was given to uen. (iet.) Wesley
K. Claik, (foimei NAT0 Commanuei), anu Bi. Phillip A. Kaibei, (foimei Stiategy
Auvisoi to Secietaiy of Befense Weinbeigei). With tiavel costs coveieu by the non-
piofit Potomac Founuation (an oiganization with a long histoiy of suppoiting East
Euiopean anu foimei Soviet Republic tiaining foi NAT0 membeiship), Claik anu
Kaibei tiaveleu to 0kiaine to unueitake a joint, militaiily oiienteu, non-public
assessment, anu uo so on a non-paitisan basis.

Claik anu Kaibei paiticipateu in SS meeting with senioi officials, militaiy
commanueis anu vaiious politicians as well as conuucteu fielu visits with fiont line
foimations on both the Noithein anu Southein Fionts.

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0kiaine is facing seiious militaiy thieats on a Suu uegiee aic fiom the teiiitoiies of
Beloiussia, Russia, occupieu Ciimea, the Black Sea anu Tiansneistei. This 1,uuu mile
long fiont is thiee times the fiontiei 0kiaine's mouest Aimeu Foices aie uesigneu to
hanule. Noieovei, uecaue-long coiiuption has left theii Aii Foice ill equippeu,
vulneiable anu unieauy foi mouein aii combat. Russian occupation of Ciimea has
viitually uestioyeu 0kiaine's coastal uefense fiom the south. Thieats fiom
Tiansneistei as well as Belaius' hosting of Russian foices on its teiiitoiy fuithei
uiveit 0kiainian political attention anu uispeise bauly neeueu foices to the
Southwest anu Noithwest.

0vei the last week, while Claik anu Kaibei weie visiting, they weie able to witness
anu confiim that the 0kiainian Aimy was neaiing completion of the laigest
peacetime mobilization of any countiy in Westein oi Cential Euiope since the enu
of Woilu Wai II. As theii foices fall into position anu aie able to tactically piepaie
uefensive positions on the teiiain, theii ability to both slow uown a potential
invasion anu inflict seiious casualties on an aggiessoi will likewise have an
incieasing ueteiient value as well.

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To maximize theii uefense potential, 0kiaine will neeu to acquiie auuitional off-the-
shelf aiiciaft, aii uefenses anu anti-aimoi systems fiom countiies with compatible
equipment - specifically NAT0 membeis who have common equipment such as Nig-
29, T-72 Tanks anu Nan Poitable Aii Befense anu Anti-Tank weapons.

Bowevei, the most ciitical items cuiiently neeueu to make the existing 0kiainian
foice as uefensible as possible in the cuiient ciisis (between now anu the elections
of 2S Nay) is non-lethal equipment fiom the 0S. The most ciitical of this non-lethal
equipment is:
• @*+1-A.4 E2,7 @1*21 capable of stopping snipei iounus - only 1 in 1uu
tioops in the 0kiainian Aimy aie equippeu with any type of Bouy Aimoi --
baseu on eviuence that Russian snipeis anu agents aie being tolu to focus on
shooting officeis (similai to the types of long-iange assassination eviuenceu
uuiing Naiuan by Russian tiaineu snipeis). The little amount of 0kiainian
bouy aimoi available is only uesigneu foi smallei calibei lowei velocity
piojectiles. Cuiiently blockeu by 0S "Foice Nultipliei" iule. Bowevei, given
that Russian tioops aie univeisally equippeu with high-quality bouy aimoi,
it is both militaiily untenable anu politically inconsistent to ueny
symmetiical piotection to the victim of aggiession.

• "-8</ L-5-24 C+3-A+5 aie a ciitical neeu in the 0kiainian Aimy. Now that
they aie in position, theii key facilities, biiuges anu fiont lines aie unuei
continuing thieat of infiltiation. Theie is neithei the time noi uo they have
the buuget to quickly outfit ciitical units with the piopei Night vision
Bevices. Cuiiently blockeu by 0S "Foice Nultipliei" iule. Again, this is a
technology ioutinely available to the Russian Aimy, anu if it is piovocative,
then that piovocation neeus to be answeieu with symmetiical iesponse.

• F2**M4-A./-245 $NM-0*+4/ is cuiiently blockeu by 0S "Foice Nultipliei"
iule. Bowevei, given the extiaoiuinaiily bioau fiont that the 0kiainian Aimy
is opeiating on, coveiing wiue aieas with no ieseive anu no aii suppoit to fill
in the gaps, along with the high piospect that theii militaiy analog comm is
compiomiseu anu civilian comm will likely be taken uown in the initial houis
of conflict, they neeu immeuiate ueliveiy of Satellite Rauios. Longei-teim, it
is unconscionable that 0kiainian Biigaues that seiveu with uistinction
alongsiue 0S foices in Iiaq anu Afghanistan -- anu hau alieauy been
ieceiving, on an expeiimental basis the Baiiis uistiibuteu uigital secuie
communications foi theii 9S
th
Aii Nobile Biigaue -- shoulu not alloweu
continueu outfitting as a ioutine effoit to all 0kiainian Biigaues that seiveu
with the 0S.

• @3-./-24 JM+6 -- 0kiaine's weak Aii Foice neeus to be flying as much as
possible - to uetect intiuueis, to covei the giounu foices in theii foiwaiu
ueployment anu to pioviue theii pilots with noimal levels of tiaining. The 0S
ban on Aviation Fuel as a "Foice Nultipliei" is blatantly iiuiculous at a time
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when Russian aiiciaft anu 0Av aie ioutinely flying the 0kiainian boiuei
within minutes of theii taigets. Again, to iesponu to aggiessive piovocation
is not "piovocative" - inueeu, unansweieu it incentivizes continueu Russian
aggiession.

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Implementation of 0S non-lethal militaiy aiu is seiiously flaweu anu neeus
immeuiate coiiection:
1). The 0S buieauciacy's aibitiaiy anu confusing "Foice Nultipliei" ciiteiia applying
a ban on selecteu suppoit equipment that is not lethal (neithei a weapon noi
ammunition) neeus to be uioppeu immeuiately. This "Foice Nultipliei" ciiteiion is
as illogical anu inconsistent as its ban is haimful to getting some of the most
valuable technology anu suppoit equipment that the 0kiainian militaiy neeus most.
The "Foice Nultipliei" ciiteiia neeus to be ieplaceu with a cleai anu unambiguous
uistinction: Lethal Weapons anu Ammunition can stay banneu, eveiything else
shoulu be alloweu - with piioiity on Bouy Aimoi, Night vision, Communications
anu Aviation Fuel.

2). Beliveiy of 0S non-lethal militaiy aiu is haimeu by a buieauciacy that is not
opeiating with a sense of uigency oi leaueiship. It must be ieplaceu with an attituue
that puts a piioiity on helping 0kiaine aheau of a naiiow pieoccupation with
auministiative pioceuuie anu institutional buugets.
The Auministiation neeus to immeuiately appoint a high-level official with militaiy
expeiience anu a "get it uone" attituue - aimeu with Piesiuential Authoiity to cut
acioss the buieauciacy anu insuie piioiitization as well as timely ueliveiy of all
non-lethal militaiy assistance it is possible foi the 0S to pioviue to 0kiaine.

S). The cuiient 0kiainian leaueiship is veiy weak in piofessional militaiy anu
national secuiity knowleuge - they have an inteiim coalition goveinment whose
leaueis have viitually no piofessional expeiience, anu the iapiu tuinovei in militaiy
leaueis has cieateu a majoi pioblem in theii senioi staff as well. They know they
have this pioblem, anu that was one of the ieasons that they iequesteu the
assistance of Claik anu Kaibei.
As the ciisis ueepens, 0kiaine neeus seasoneu piofessional Ameiican militaiy anu
national secuiity auvice to assist them in making piuuent anu wise uecisions - if this
cannot be pioviueu by active militaiy anu civilian piofessionals - plans shoulu be
maue to biing in ietiieu senioi people to help. If the Russians can publicly announce
that the fugitive 0kiainian pievious Piesiuent is an 0fficial Auvisoi to Putin, it can
haiuly be piovocative to pioviue low-key non-unifoimeu auvice anu piofessional
situation awaieness tiaining.

N0TE: This inteiim iepoit is focuseu on fixing Non-Lethal Aiu. We will offei
subsequent thoughts on the neeu to get ieauy foi a Lethal Aiu contingency.

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