DIRECTIONAL METOCEAN EXTREMES

The 800-yea r question

N NW W SW S NE E SE

Gra ha m Feld Senior Metocea n Engineer

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AGENDA
Context a nd definitions Directiona l extremes in ISO a nd API T ra ditiona l a pproa ch to directiona l extremes Approa ch consistent with ISO 19901 The 800-yea r solution The optimum solution Some comments on pra ctica l a pplica tion Cla rifica tion a ddendum

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CONTEXT AND DEFINITIONS

Discussion a pplies to a ny directiona l metocea n pa ra meters tha t loa d

offshore structures, typica lly winds, waves, currents

For most structures:
wa ves

tend to domina te ma ximum individua l wa ve is critica l pa ra meter

most-proba ble

For simplicity, the slides focus on the deriva tion of return va lues of

significant wave height, Hs, from which the ma ximum individua l wa ve is derived

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CONTEXT AND DEFINITIONS (2)

T a rget return period is 100 yea rs

100-yea r Hs va lue,
Hs that Hs that

Hs100, is defined a s the:

is expected to be exceeded once in 100 years has an annual probability of exceedance of 0.01

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DIRECTIONAL EXTREMES IN ISO

ISO19901-1:2005 Metocean design and operating considerations
For design different wave, wind, and/ or current magnitudes may be used for

different approach directions [as long as] the overall reliability of the structure is not compromised by the use of such lower directional environmental conditions

Environmental conditions should be scaled up such that the combined event from all sectors has the same probability of exceedance as the target return period

Method is expla ined in FO RRIST AL L , G.Z., O n the use of directiona l wa ve criteria , J. Wa terwa y, Port, Coa sta l a nd O cea n Engineering, 2004

ISO19902:2007 Fixed steel offshore structures

The environmental conditions should be scaled up such that the most severe sector is no less severe than the omni-directional 100 year condition.
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DIRECTIONAL EXTREMES IN API

API RP-2A Recommended Practice for Planning, Designing and

Constructing Fixed Offshore Platforms - Working Stress Design

Provides No

fa ctors to a pply to omni-directiona l extremes in GoM

ba sis given for the derived fa ctors

API RP 2RD Design of Risers for Floating Production Systems (FPSs)

and T ension-Leg Platforms (TLPs)

No

explicit a dvice I could find

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TRADITIONAL APPROACH TO DIRECTIONAL EXTREMES

N NW NE E SE S

O mni

W SW

Omni Hs100

Hs100,dir

Directiona l extremes a re sca led up by ra tio of:

O mni Hs100 :ma x(Hs100,dir)

Result:
There

is no definitive sta tistica l rela tionship between directiona l a nd omni-directiona l extremes with ISO 19902 but not 19901-1
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Consistent

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APPROACH CONSISTENT WITH ISO 19901

Ensure tha t combined event from a ll sectors ha s the sa me proba bility

of exceeda nce a s the ta rget return period.

Requires a clea r sta tistica l rela tionship between Hs100 a nd Hs100,dir The overa ll proba bility of fa ilure must not be dependent upon the

choice of sectors, e.g. 1, 2, 4 or 8 sectors.

N North O mni South S W E
NW W SW S

N NE E SE

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 1 ISO-DIRECTIONAL

Completely symmetrica l clima te from a ll directions in terms of:
Storm Storm

severity occurrence ra te

Storms in ea ch sector a re independent a nd a ffect only one sector ea ch

Weibull distribution:
Sca le

pa ra meter = 6 pa ra meter = 2

Sha pe

O mni-directiona l Hs100 is 16.5m

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 1 OMNI AND 2 SECTORS

O mni-directiona l ca se:
P(Hs

>16.5m) = 1 in 100 yea rs = 1/ 100

O mni

2-sector ca se: only ha lf the number of events in ea ch sector, so ta kes

twice a s long to rea ch 16.5m, i.e.

P(HsNorth P(HsSouth

>16.5m) = 1in 200 yea rs >16.5m) = 1in 200 yea rs

North South

P(HsSouth

>16.5m or HsNorth >16.5m) = 1/ 200 + 1/ 200 = 1/ 100

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 1 4 AND 8 SECTORS

4-sector ca se:
P(HsN

N W S E

>16.5m) = 1/ 400 = 1/ 400 = 1/ 400

P(HsE >16.5m) P(HsS P(HsW P(HsN

>16.5m)

>16.5m) = 1/ 400 or HsE or HsS or HsW >16.5m) = 4 *1/ 400 = 1/ 100

N NW W SW S NE E SE

8-sector ca se

P(Hsa ny direction >16.5m)

= 8 *1/ 800 = 1/ 100

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 1 SUMMARY

Wha tever sectors we choose, the composite proba bility of exceeding

16.5m is once in 100 yea rs.

This ca nt be a chieved by ta king the 100-yea r independent extreme

from ea ch sector, which a re:

15.0m

15.8m 16.5m 15.8m

15.0m 15.0m 15.0m

14.1m 14.1m 14.1m 14.1m 14.1m

14.1m 14.1m 14.1m

So, for 8 sectors, the hypothetica l solution is using 800-yea r extremes. Should we a lwa ys ta ke the 800-yea r solution for 8 sectors?

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 2 HIGHLY DIRECTIONAL

100-yea r omni-directiona l is 22.3m. Directiona l extremes a re:

14.1m 22.3m 14.1m 14.1m 14.1m

16.5m 26.2m 16.5m 16.5m 16.5m

14.1m 14.1m 14.1m

16.5m 16.5m 16.5m

Hs100,dir

Hs800,dir

Surely, the 800-yea r solution doesnt ma ke sense in this context.

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 3 MORE REALISTIC CASE

O mni-directiona l extreme 23.5m 8 sectors, ea ch with different Weibull description.
21.1m 22.3m 18.8m 20.0m 16.4m

17.6m 14.1m 15.3m

Hs100,dir
1 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 100 = 12 .5

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 3 TRADITIONAL SOLUTION

T ra ditiona l solution sca led up Hs100,dir by ra tio of

O mni Hs100 / ma x(Hs100,dir) 23.5/ 22.3 = 1.05

22.3m 23.5m 19.8m 21.0m 17.3m

18.6m 14.8m 16.1m

T raditional scaled Hs100,dir

1 190 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 + 180 + 186 + 190 + 190 + 192 + 190 + 185 = 1 23.5

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 3 800-YEAR SOLUTION

800-yea r solution

24.8m 26.2m 22.1m 23.4m 19.3m

20.7m 16.5m 17.9m

Hs800,dir
1 800 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 + 800 + 800 + 800 + 800 + 800 + 800 + 800 = 100

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 3 AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION

Ensuring tha t no Hs100,dir > Hs100 to the nea rest 0.1m

23.5m 23.5m 23.5m 23.5m 22.2m

23.3m 19.5m 21.0m

1 376

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 + 21k + 10 + + + + + = k 16 k 14 k 6k 860 187 100

O ther a lterna tives a re possible if you a re prepa red to increa se la rgest

sector by 0.1m, 0.2m etc.

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HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE 3 COMP ARISON

Compa rison of some solutions
27.0 25.0 23.0 Hs [m] 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 N NE E SE S SW W NW Alterna tive #1 Alterna tive #2 Alterna tive #3 800-Yea r Tra ditiona l 100-Yea r

In fa ct, a ny solution is possible a s long a s the sum of proba bilities is

1/ 100.
Wha t is the optimum solution?

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THE OPTIMUM SOLUTION

. it depends . .. but will a lmost certa inly not be the 800-yea r solution.

Some thoughts:
O ptimum L ikely

solution ca n only be found by rela ting it to the structure.

to be one tha t ha s no direction much more severe tha n the 100-yea r omni-directiona l va lue. more va ria ble the clima te by direction, the more the optimum solution is likely to depa rt from the 800-yea r solution

The

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PRACTICAL APPLICATION
The optimum solution is often ha rd to define Need to decide wha t criterion you wa nt to use to determine wha t is

optima l
Is it pra ctica l to ma ke a n a symmetrica l structure? Proba bly best to use omni-directiona l for new designs

Reliability approaches can use the independent 100-year directional

values as probability of failures ARE combined at the end of the analysis.

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PRACTICAL APPLICATION CLARIFICATION (1)

For a new structure tha t is yet to be built, you ha ve some freedom in

how you wa nt to resist the environment a t the loca tion in question. There a re a n infinite number of wa ys tha t the environment ca n be resisted to ta rget return period a nd you ca n define exa ctly how you would like to do this. T wo exa mples a re depicted below structura l resista nce in blue, 100-yea r environment (red dots )
Designed resista nce a lterna tives

100-yea r environment
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PRACTICAL APPLICATION CLARIFICATION (2)

For an existing structure, you ha ve no freedom a s the structura l

resista nce a lrea dy exists (blue da shed line).

Y ou need to try to find whether the resista nce (blue da shed line) gives

overa ll 100 yea rs or better. Y ou ca n do this in two wa ys:

A push-over a na lysis Directiona l code checks

In-pla ce resista nce

100-yea r environment

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PRACTICAL APPLICATION CLARIFICATION (3)

Option 1: Push-over analysis
Ca lcula te Shown

proba bility of fa ilure in ea ch direction

a s green dots in the figure - a ll a t different return periods a s output from the a na lysis but a ll lie on a ctua l line to get the overa ll proba bility of fa ilure

Combine

In-pla ce resista nce

Directiona l fa ilure proba bilities

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PRACTICAL APPLICATION CLARIFICATION (4)

Option 2: Directional code check
Could Some If a ll

try 800-yea r in ea ch direction (yellow dots) pa ss (inside the blue line), some fa il (outside the blue line)

pa ss, then success

If not,

must try a nother combina tion tha t combines to100 yea rs, e.g. the cya n dots. until you find a ny set where a ll points a re on the line or inside, e.g. the cya n dots work in this ca se. is a n infinite number of combina tions

Repea t

There

tha t you ca n try. Y ou only ha ve to find one set tha t works but it is tria l a nd error.
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CONCLUSION
When designing a new structure:
Y ou The

ca n design to resist the environment in infinite number of wa ys 800-yea r solution is ra rely, if ever, optima l

For pre-existing structures. T est using either push-over or code check:

Push-over

a pproa ches

use independent 100-yea r directiona l va lues, combine proba bilities of fa ilure a t the end

Code

checks a re tria l a nd error

there is no single definitive set of directiona l criteria use of either tra ditiona l or independent 100-yea r extremes is insufficient for testing a ga inst a n overa ll ta rget return period a s neither combine to 100 yea rs or better.
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