A n Analysis of U r b a n Road Traffic Safety in Stockholm The use of aggregate time-series models with the TRIO programme Grran

B. Tegn~r Business Manager, M Pol Sc, TRANSEK Consultants Vesna M. Loncar Lucassi, Project Manager M Sc CE, TRANSEK Consultants 1. THE DRAG MODEL APPROACH FOR STOCKHOLM 1970 - 1995

The DRAG-philosophy aims at creating an enhanced understanding o f two aspects of mobility: the demand for road usage, and the complex interactions affecting road accidents. The notion is based on a three step approach, risk exposure, accident rate and its severity. A data base has been created for the County of Stockholm with a broad spectrum of explanatory variables, such as socio-economic factors, laws and regulations, road and public transport data, vehicle fleet data, climate data and other related information aiming at explaining the development of road traffic and road accidents ex post. A special statistical programme package, called TRIO 1 has been used in the analysis. The demand model is estimated on aggregate time series data for the whole area (in this case Stockholm County). The idea is to explain both traffic volumes (vehicle kilometres, vkms) and road accidents by a wide spectrum of explanatory variables by exploiting the vast variation in the monthly data set. This technique is called DRAG and stands for: "Demand for Road use, Accidents and their GraviO/" , and is developed by professor Marc Gaudry at the Transport research Centre at the University of Montreal in Canada. In our application of the DRAG approach in the Stockholm region, the following time series models have been carried out on a monthly basis for the period 1970 - 1995: an EXPOSURE model of total road mileage (vehicle kilometres) for petrol passenger cars a FREQUENCY model of total number of road accidents with personal injuries and deaths

131

a SEVERITY model of the: number of light injuries per road accident number of severe injuries per road accident - number of fatal deaths per road accident. Analogous DRAG-models have been carried out in Canada, Germany and are being developed in France and Norway2.

THE 1995

DEMAND

FOR

ROAD

USE

IN STOCKHOLM

COUNTY

1970 -

2.1

The model

In TRIO a demand model function is specified as follows: :

Y'~-l-flo+flk~'~('x~?l')+u I
where yt
po

Pk
the

~.kresp~. y

= = = = =

the dependent variable for month t the constant term the estimated regression coefficient the independent variable xk:s value for month t the so-called lambda-parameters for the independent variable xk and for dependent y-variable, i.e. a scale factor also estimated on the data set and which transforms the model or to a certain mathematical form. As a special case, when lambda is = I, you get a linear model, and iflambda is = O, you get a logarithmic model. This transformation is called "Box-

Cox" transformation.
and

I u,=v,f(Z,)v',
v, =

where

z,
Ut

Vt

= a vector of heteroskedastic variables = the error term (the residual vector) depending on the heteroskedasticity = the error term (the residual vector) which is assumed to be dependent in the auto-correlation &the model

and finally Pl = the so-called auto-regressive (time lag) parameters, which are also 0~t 2.2 estimated and carries information about the time lag in the model. = the third stage vector of residuals Overall transport trends in Stockholm county 1970 - 1995

The rapid development of car traffic in the Stockholm County during the last 35 years can not be explained by any single factor. Rather, there is a wide range of factors, which contribute to this augmentation. In Figure 1 some key factors of importance to car traffic growth is presented in percent change between 1970 and 1995: Public transport supply has almost doubled and increased even more than road traffic vehicle-kilometres. But public transport demand has only increased by 13 percent over the last 25 years. Real petrol prices has increased slightly more than public transport fares, 46 compared to 43 percent. The car park, measured as cars in use, is in 1995 more than 50 percent larger than in 1970. The Stockholm county population is 16 percent larger after 25 years, i.e. some 250,000 more inhabitants; employment went up by 185,000 person from 1970 to 1990, but has declined by 115,000 persons between 1990 and 1994 due to the economic recession. On the other side, the length of the state road network, has only expanded by one percent, i.e. it is of almost the same length as in 1970. Most new road links have replaced older ones.

133

2.3

D R A G - m o d e l Results - E s t i m a t e d Elasticities

Table 1 summarises the model results in terms of average elasticities:

Table 1

20factors explain car traffic growth 1970 - 1995 Average elasticity 1970 - 1995 + I. 107 + 0.267 + 0.211 + 0.554 -0.433 - 0.102 + 0.536 - 0.255 - 0.280 (- 0.047) + 0.262 (+ 0.046) (-0.022) - 0.098 + 0.057 - 0.029 - 0.168 + 0.632 (+0.0201) -0.051 0.532 1.507 0.272 4).264 0.129 96.5 % (4.72) (7.64) (4.23)

No

Dependent variable: Vehicle-kms p e r month Explanatory variables

t-value

Economic activities
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Employment (days) Retail sales per employed in constant prices Leisure activity (holidays per working day) Holiday "per so" Population per employed No of tourists per vehicle km The C a r p a r k No of cars in use per employed No of cars in use per employed (squared)

(4.41) (2.09) (3.98)

(2.11) (-2.7O)

Prices & public transport Peal petrol price

Public transport improvements- dummy Road network & restrictions New road links Parking restrictions in Inner city Temporary speed limits Petrol rationing, jan -74 Climate and calendar data Average temperature per month No of snow days per month Share of day/night 06-24 with darkness No of work-days per month No of other days per month Special events The Kuwait war dummy Lambda 1- value for activity-and pricevariables Lambda 2- value for variableno 7 Auto regressive term: Rho: t-I Auto regressive term: Rho: t-2 Auto regressive term: Rho: t-12 Percentage explained b~' the model- R 2

(-3.92) (-0.72) (3.78) (0.80) (-0.93) (-2.98)

(5.27) (-3.39) (-7.30) (6.12) (0.43) (-1.04)

(7.58)
(0.43)

(+4.18)
(-4.79)

(-i.80)

Note! Elasticities within parenthesis are not significant at the 90 % confidence level.

134

In the Table 1 above the Demand for Road use model for the period 1970 - 1995 for Stockholm county is presented in terms of average elasticities, with respect to the number of vehicle-kilometres per month, which is the dependent variable. The vehicle-kms are calculated through petrol sales records per month, and adjusted for the fuel-efflciency of the car fleet, but also for the average monthly temperature. As temperature becomes lower than 8 centigrade (Celsius) fuel consumption increases per kilometre, and even more as temperature falls beyond the freezing point. The 20 factors of the model explain 96.5 percent of the total variation in traffic production (vkms) during the last 25 year period.
Economic activities

The 'locomotive" among the explanatory variables is the employment variable. A 10 percent increase in the number of employed is estimated to enhance the number of vehicle-kms by 15 percent. Increased employment produces higher personal income, which in turn leads to higher car ownership and this governs much of the activities in the urban area, such as private consumption and leisure activities. A one percent population growth, without any increase in employment, on the other hand, reduces car traffic by 0,4 percent. To summarise, employed persons use the car, while others use public transport or the walk/bike mode. The demand for transport is a derived demand. The demand for all those activities creates the demand for mobility, not income per se. That is why we have not inserted an household or personal income variable, but measured the demand via five activity variables. As real retail sales increases by 10 percent, road traffic increases by 2,7 percent, according to the time-series model. This indicator measures the effect of shopping trips on total road traffic demand. The corresponding elasticity of 0,27 for Stockholm could be compared to a very similar result obtained in both Quebec and in Germany. In Quebec, Canada the corresponding elasticity has been calculated to 0,25 and in Germany to 0,24; thus, these findings are highly consistent to each other3. 2.4
Comparison between estimated and actual road traffic demand

The performance of the vehicle-km-model is shown below, where the observed and the model estimated traffic production (vkms) are compared on a yearly basis: The overall correspondence between observed and estimated vehicle kilometres is quite good. For a single year the deviations between model and reality varies between 0 and 3 percent, with some very few exceptions:

135

in 1973 the model underestimates the observed road mileage by 6,5 percent; * in 1989 the model underestimates the observed road mileage by 5,2 percent In both cases the time period could be characterised by an exceptional increase in road traffic over the past years.

R O A D ACCIDENT EXPOSURES AND SEVERITY IN S T O C K H O L M C O U N T Y 1970 - 1995

Accident trends in Stockholm county 1970 - 1995

3.1

The number of police-reported road traffic accidents has shown a variation around 2,000 to 2,800 accidents per annum, and the total amount has only declined by 1 percent during the last 25 year period. The number of fatal deaths and injured persons has been reduced by 3 percent in the same period. However, the severity of road traffic accidents has changed dramatically - the number of fatal deaths has gone down from some 150 persons to 50 persons, i.e. a reduction by 65 percent in 25 years. The number of severely injured persons has changed from some 900 persons in 1970 to 450 persons in 1995. On the other side, the number of light injuries has increased from approximately 2,600 to 3,000 persons or by 18 percent. The overall accident pattern is shown in figure 2.

3.2

The Accident exposure model results

A comparison between the observed number of personal road accidents and the estimated number obtained from the time-series model is illustrated in Figure 3. As could be seen from Figure 3 the correspondence between observed and estimated number of involved victims in road accidents is very good.

3.3

Various explanatory factors contribution to the number of accidents

We have identified 30 various factors that contribute to explain the monthly variations in the number of road accidents with personal injuries or deaths. In the table below the most important factors are presented:

136

Table 2.

Factors with an important impact on the number o f personal accidents

Factors with an importantimpact on the numberof personal accidents Road traffic vehicle-kilometres Use of safetybelts Numberof employedper veh.km Numberof remarksper inspected car Share of daylight hoursper day Medical consumption(no of recipes/person) New road links

Average elasticity 1970 - Averageelasticity 1970 1995 with respectto the 1995with respectto the total numberof accidents4 number of fatal death +1,8 -1,8 -0,5 -1,2 +0,4 -0,9 +0,4 +0,4 -0,3 -0,9 +0,3 +0,8 +0,1 -0,25

The elasticities indicate how much a certain accident type changes at a 1 percent change in the explanatory variable. Our results indicate that the number of road accidents in an urbanised area like the Stockholm region increases much more than proportional to the amount of road traffic (elasticity: +1,8). Maybe it is explained by a rapid growth in the number of potential conflicts as the number of total vehicle-kilometres increases. The number of fatal deaths seems to be reduced, probably due to reduced speeds. The quality of the vehicle fleet - measured here in terms of the number of remarks per inspected car - also indicate an important factor that influences both number of accidents and the severity of the accidents. Medical consumption - measures as the number of sold recipes per person and month seems to have a major impact on road traffic accidents, according to our findings. If supported by micro-studies, this result indicate an important factor to be dealt with in order to reduce road accidents and their severity. An interesting result is also the impact of new road links in Stockholm county during the last 25 years. Both the number of severely injured as well as the number of fatal deaths has been reduced by 25 percent as an estimated effect of some 35 new road links during the 25 year period. An impressive amount of various traffic safety measures have been implemented during the last 25 years in Sweden (and elsewhere). One such example is the use of traffic safety belts. A 10 percent increase in the use of safety belts is estimated to lead to a reduction in the number of road accidents with personal victims by 5 percent and a

137

reduction in the number of fatal deaths by 12 percent, according to the tlme-series model for Stockholm. A summary of the contribution from various explanatory factors to the number of road accidents with personal victims in Stockholm county 1970 - 1995 is presented in Figure 4. To sum up, one could argue that all the traffic safety measures that have been implemented during the last quarter of the century have been necessary to balance the expected increase in the number of accidents caused by an increase in road trzffic volumes at the same time period. This is also dearly illustrated in figure 3.4 above, where the magnitude of two factors exactly even out (- 54 %, +54 %). The better vehicle fleet quality has contributed to a decrease in the accident rate, but the car occupancy factor seems to have had a major negative impact on accidents (that variable ought to be viewed with great care). The road infrastructure is shown to have a slight positive impact, in terms of a minor accident reduction; however, the major impact is a substantial decrease in the number of severely injured and in the number of fatal deaths.

NOTES
TRIO zs a statlsfi=I prograram e package for multiple regression model esttmataon of dependent variables oft.he types: level, share and probability. TRIO has bee=l devlopad by Prof Mare Gauch~ at the Centre de Recherche s ~ le~ Trar~sport~ (C.R.T.) at Universityof Montreal in Carmda.

So~ce I:"Appllsadon of Economcth~ Modal DRAG-2 to Rc~d Travel Demand in Quebec" Proceedings of the Canadhn M ulddlsclpRnazyRoad SafetyConfcamc~ VIII,Jtme 14-]6, 1993, So~katoorkSaslczt cbewan. By M. Gaud~, C,R.T.,Ur, Jv.of Montreal,Quebec, F.FoLmdc and R. Shn ~d, Soci~d de l'assur~,~cc aut~mobg du Quebec; Some= 2: "A!~zcgat Time-Series Gasokae ~ d Models; Rc~cw of the Llttemtwe ~ d N~v Evldmcc for West Germany", by Uldeh C, H. Blum, -Gcrtmud Fc~s trodMarc Gauthy, Tmnspotladon Rcs~'ch A, VOI, 22A, NO 2. pp 75-88, 198~, Som'ce: "Applicauon of Econometric MOde] DRAG-2 to Road Travel D~'mond m Quebec ~, M. Guuci~, F. Fomtmie and R. Ska~d, p~c~dings o f the CanadJo~

M u l 6 ~ p l l n ~ * Road Safety Confc~nc, Jm~e14-16,1993, SaskatooP,Saskatcehwon

4 NB: Matcd,"Jdamage~ not included

139

BIBLIOGRAPHY Gaudry, M., Fournier, F. and Simard, R. (1993) Application of Econometric Model DRAG-2 to Road Travel Demand in Quebec, Proceedings of the Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference VIII, June 14-16, 1993, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Blum, U.C.M., Foos, G. and Gaudry, M. (1988) Aggregate Time-Series Gasoline Demand Models: Review of the Litterature and New Evidence for West Germany, Transportation Research A. Vol. 22A, No 2, pp 75-88, 1988.

140

Figure 1

Overall transport trends in Stockholm County - some key factors

Tourists Trucks in use Public Ira nspo~t pbce-krr~s Road traffic produc~on Cars in use Real petrol pdce Real pdvate consumptioNcap Real pdce montHy pass P.T, Car ownership Real retail sales Popula~on Public transport tdps Employment State road network lenght 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%
L.

~ .~. ~,,~,~;~',.~x~z~/~:.,,~ ~ 46% -..~.'..,~,..~.,...:.~ .< ~ 44%

~ ~ ~~~ ~.~, ," "-'~ ~'#~'~~.~,I 4 3 %

30% 17% 13% 11%

141

Figure 2. Number o f injured and fatal deaths in traffic accidents in Stockholm county 1970 - 1995

1 N u m b e r o f i ~ u r e d a n d f a t a l d e a t h s i n t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s in S t o c k h o l m c o u n t y | 1970-1995

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1989

1982

1984

1986

1986

19~0

1992

1994

I OFatatdeaths

Ig Severely injuries [3Lightinjuries I

Figure 3. Estimated and observed number o f personal accidents in Stockholm county 1970 - 1995

Estimated and observed number of personalaccidents Stockholm county 1970 -1995

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

I 000

500

143

Figure 4. Contributions from various factors to the number o f road accidents with personal victims in Stockholm county 1970 - 1995 .

Contribution from various factors to the number of road accidents I with personal victims in Stockholm county 1970 - 1995 /

Traffic safety measures

O~her favors

-17%

RoadinfraWucture

-1%

C a r Remarks & occupancy

~ 2 o ~

Road traffic vel~ms

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

E0%

144