Environ Monit Assess (2007) 127:419428 DOI 10.

1007/s10661-006-9291-9

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

A web-based decision support system for slopeland hazard warning

Yu Fan-Chieh Chen Chien-Yuan Lin Sheng-Chi Lin Yu-Ching Wu Shang-Yu Cheung Kei-Wai

Received: 25 October 2005 / Accepted: 8 May 2006 / Published online: 14 December 2006 C Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2006

Abstract A WebGIS decision support system for slopeland hazard warning based on real-time monitored rainfall is introduced herein. This paper presents its framework, database, processes of setting up the threshold line for debris ow triggering and the calculation algorithm implemented in the system. The web-based GIS via the Microsoft Internet Explorer is designed for analysis of areas prone to debris ows outburst and landslides during torrential rain. Its function is to provide suggestions to commander for immediate response to the possibility of slopeland hazards, and determine if pre-evacuation is necessary. The dening characteristics of the internet-based decision support system is not to automatically show the dangerous areas but acts as part of the decision process via information collection to help experts judge the prone debris ow creeks and the tendency of landslides initiation. The combination with real-time rainfall estimation by the QPESUMS radar system is suggested for further enhancement.
Y. Fan-Chieh National Chung Hsing University e-mail: fcyu@dragon.nchu.edu.tw C. Chien-Yuan ( ) National Chiayi University Addr: No. 300 Syuefu Rd. Chiayi City 60004, Taiwan e-mail: chienyuc@mail.ncyu.edu.tw L. Sheng-Chi L. Yu-Ching W. Shang-Yu C. Kei-Wai National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR). Addr.: 9F., No. 200, Sec. 3, HoPing E. Beisin Rd., Sindian City, Taipei County 23143, Taiwan

Keywords Landslide . Debris ow . Decision support system . Real-time monitoring . WebGIS

1. Introduction The current trend for the development of decision support systems (DSS) is to use powerful tools in computer graphics, articial intelligence and visual interactive modeling (Eom et al., 1998). In recent years, combining with the population of Geographic Information System (GIS) has become a basis of DSS because GIS has the advantage to explore and analyze spatial database efciently. For example, Lazzari et al. (1999) constructed a landslide hazard monitoring system with GIS, and Junkhiaw et al. (2004) developed a DSS for ood warning with GIS techniques. The concept of DSS for spatial analysis has also been termed a spatial decision support system (SDSS) (Densham and Goodchild, 1989; Crossland et al., 1995). The combination of GIS and the internet is also a widespread trend of DSS. One example of the application of DSS via the internet for ood risk assessment was presented in the project of ANFAS (http://ups.savba.sk/ parcom/anfas/, Prastacos, 2002). There is a population of 23 million people in an area of about 36,000 km2 of the main island of Taiwan. This level of population density makes Taiwan one of the most crowded areas in the world. The losses of lives and damages to facilities by natural hazards have been increasing with the mounting
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population. According to the Central Weather Bureau (http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V4e/, CWB) there was a total loss of 174 billion Taiwan dollars per year from 1980 to 1998 that could be attributed to typhoon induced hazards. The National Fire Agency, Taipei city government, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, CWB, Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), Water Resources Agency, and Central Geological Survey have developed various disaster management information systems for mitigation of natural hazards (Lin and Hsu, 2005) because the government is the main domain for DSS application (Eom et al., 1998). Debris ow is one of the most serious natural hazards in terms of its potential hazard to lives and damages to facilities. This is especially the case with the increasing urban development in the limited space of Taiwan. The requirement of a DSS for slopeland hazard pre-warning for areas with recurring natural hazards is urgent especially in the aftermath of the M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake that occurred in Taiwan in 1999. This article introduces the current development of a DSS for slopeland hazards in the National Science & Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (http://www.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/ncdr eng/, NCDR) and suggestions for its improvement. We emphasize the necessary background and theory to set up a slopeland threshold line, the architecture of web-based SDSS, and the process of decision support/ making for slopeland hazard precaution.

Fig. 1 Track of typhoons that affected Taiwan in recent years

2. Slopeland hazards in Taiwan According to the CWB, approximately 3.5 typhoons on average hit Taiwan every year. Figure 1 presents the tracks of typhoons that affected Taiwan in recent years and caused catastrophic slopeland hazards. In the single year of 2001, Taiwan was affected by eight typhoons, of which two were of typhoon intensity: Toraji and Nari.

These two typhoons caused the most serious damages in slopeland hazard in the aftermath of the M7.6 ChiChi earthquake. For example, Typhoon Nari hit western Taiwan directly and caused great amount of damages in areas of high population density. The total number of slopeland hazards, including landslides, debris ows, rockfalls and road-related landslides that were triggered in recent years are shown in Table 1. The statistics of slopeland hazards were obtained from SWCB, Directorate General of Highway (DGH), National Fire Agency, newspapers and wireless news. In 1990 Typhoon Ole destroyed 32 buildings and buried 36 residents under masses of debris in eastern Taiwan (Chen et al. 1999). This major catastrophic debris ow highlighted the necessity of debris ow prevention work in Taiwan. The M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999 triggered 21,970 landslide spots over 113 km2 (source: SWCB, 2000). One of the most

Table 1 Total number of recent years typhoon-related slopeland hazards in Taiwan Typhoon event Toraji 2001/07/28 Nari 2001/09/17 Mindulle 2004/06/30

Max. intensity (mm/hr) 147 142 167

Accumulative rainfall (mm) 757 1,462 2,005

No. of slopeland hazards 673 475 1,023

No. of evacuated 24,000 9,500

No. of died/ disappeared 214 104 41

Source from SWCB, DGH, National Fire Agency, newspapers and wireless news

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Fig. 2 Huge landslide at Chiufenerhshan township, Nantou County, triggered by the M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999

Fig. 3 Debris ow hazard after Typhoon Mindulle at Songhe Tribute, Taichung County (photo by SWCB)

damaging landslides was located in Tsaoling township in Yulin County. The landslide had an area of up to 4 km2 and a landslide dam formed, in which there were 29 victims (Chigira et al., 2003, Chen et al., 2004b). The other landslide case was triggered at the epicenter of the Chi-Chi earthquake with a landslide area of 2 km2 and a dammed lake formed in the Chiufenerhshan township in Nantou County. There were 19 houses and 41 residents trapped inside the sliding mass (Fig. 2) (Shou and Wang, 2003, Wu et al., 2005). Typhoon Xangsane in 2000 induced debris ows at the Dacukeng stream of Taipei County in northern Taiwan. More than 20 houses were affected and there were eight victims attributed to a landslide dam breaching that induced debris ow (Chen et al., 2004a). After the Chi-Chi earthquake and the additional impact of Typhoon Xangsane, the number of streams with potential for debris ow in Taiwan increased from 485 to 722 according to eld investigations by SWCB. Typhoon Toraji gave outburst to the most serious debris ow hazards in history for the 673 spots of slopeland hazards and debris ows initiated in all 14 counties of Taiwan. This disaster caused by Toraji had 103 victims, 111 missing people and 189 injuries. Two months later, another Typhoon Nari hit northern Taiwan, causing 475 slopeland hazards and 104 deaths. The typhoon induced ood hazards that paralyzed the transportation system of Taipei city. In June 2004, Typhoon Mindulle struck Taiwan. This typhoon caused 1,023 slopelandrelated hazards from more than 2,000 mm of rain with the highest intensity of 167 mm/hr. There were 41 victims during the impact of Typhoon Mindulle. One of

the most damaging debris ows in Songhe Tribute of Taichung County is shown in Fig. 3.

3. Landslide and debris ow threshold setting Chen et al. (2005) collected 61 historical debris ow cases and their triggering time in Taiwan for the purpose of performing linear regression analysis of a debris ow threshold line. The triggering equation for critical averaged rainfall intensity (Ic ) versus rainfall duration (D) can be expressed as: Ic = 115.47D0.80 (1)

This equation was veried when Typhoon Mindulle hit Taiwan and the threshold equation for triggering the 29 debris ows in 2004 is represented as: Ic = 101.81D0.69 (2)

As shown in Fig. 4, equation (2) was found to have higher values than equation (1) and therefore equation (1) can be employed as a threshold line for debris ow monitoring in Taiwan, especially in the northern and middle parts of the island. For the purpose of landslide threshold monitoring, 3,629 cases of rainfall induced landslide were collected from 1971 to 2004 for mapping critical isohyet to trigger landslides by rainfall intensity (Fig. 5) and by daily accumulated rainfall (Fig. 6) using spatial interpolation of rain gauge data that employs the Kriging method.
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1000 Mindulle event nothing with the 921 EQ Mindulle event affected by the 921 EQ
Historical events affected by the 921 EQ Historical events nothing with the 921 EQ

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100 Mean Rainfall Intensity (mm/hr)

10

I=101.81D-0.69 (Mindulle)

1 I=115.47D-0.80

0.1 1 10 Duration (hr) 100 1000

Fig. 4 Debris ow threshold line implemented in the WebGIS system

Fig. 6 Critical daily accumulated rainfall triggering landslides in Taiwan

4. Architecture of the web-based decision support system The internet-based DSS is based on the AutoDesks MapGuide and the operational environment is a component of Microsoft Windows 2000 server, while Autodesk MapGuide Server 5.0 and Microsoft SQL Server 2000 are used for data inquiry. The user interface is structured in Microsoft Internet Explorer 5.0 or above, and Autodesk MapGuide Viewer R6 is optimized for screen resolution 1024768. It is available from the web site http://map2.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/ for authorized users. The architecture of the system is presented in Fig. 7 and Fig. 8 illustrates some components of the platform for slopeland hazard warning. As shown in Fig. 7 and Fig. 8, there are four dynamic databases and three major modules in the WebGIS platform. The spatial rainfall distribution from rain gauge stations and the radar data display system QPESUMS (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors) are connected in

Fig. 5 Critical rainfall intensity triggering landslides in Taiwan Springer

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Fig. 7 Architecture of the web-based GIS decision support system for slopeland hazard warning

Fig. 8 Components of WebGIS platform for slopeland hazard warning Springer

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real-time to the CWB in Taiwan. Data received from the CWB is interpolated in GIS and automatically updated every ten minutes. A preliminary application of QPESUMS for monitoring rainfall for debris ow warning was introduced by Chen et al. (2006). Options of rainfall information display in the web system include monitored ground-based rainfall spatial distribution with one-, three-, six-, twelve- and 24-hour accumulated values. These rainfall data can also be ranked and sorted from the highest to the lowest value in the past hour (up to previous six hours) based on monitored rain gauge stations. Another important function of the rainfall module is to display rainfall estimates from the climatology and persistence model that is built upon a database of 66 typhoons that affected Taiwan from 1989 to 2002. The model estimates, displays, sorts and performs inquires for 1-, 3-, 6-, and 24-hour rainfall distribution based on the forecast track of typhoons from the CWB and with consideration the topographical lifting effect (Lee et al., 2006). The spatial distribution of rainfall is an important factor in the overlap analysis for identifying zones of rainfall concentration and judging the possibility of hazards. The monitored river water level in the WEbGIS system is connected to the Water Resource Agency (http://eng.wra.gov.tw/) and displays the discharge information of the specied rivers. The hazard occurrence information in the WebGIS is manually updated with hazard information from newspapers and wireless news as they are collected continuously. The location of hazards displayed in the system let the commander know in which manner the hazards occur. The basic GIS map layers in the system include locations of the 365 rain gauge stations, national highways, local ways, division of counties, townships, villages, and watersheds. These features are then overlayed on topographic maps in scales of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 and aerial photos of 1:5,000 scale.

Start of a rainfall event (t1) (unit: hr) Current time (t2) (unit: hr) Rainfall duration D = t2-t1 (unit: hr) Accumulative rainfall R (unit: mm) Averaged rainfall intensity Iavg = R/D (unit: mm/hr)

Debris flow threshold line Ic = 115.47D-0.8 (unit: mm/hr)

No

Iavg > Ic
Ye s Display streams and regions over threshold in WebGIS

Judgments of regions prone to debris flow

Warning of debris flow prone areas

Fig. 9 Implementation of debris ow threshold line for real-time rainfall monitoring in WebGIS

the duration (D) is dened as the time passed of current time (t2 ) from t1 . The averaged rainfall intensity (Iavg ) is the mean value of accumulated rainfall (R) per hour (R/D). The algorithm of comparing rainfall intensity and the threshold line is implemented in the WebGIS system and updated every 10 minutes with the real-time monitored raingauge stations (Fig. 9). Figure 10 shows the marked townships with their averaged rainfall, Iavg , over the threshold value in equation (1) in the WebGIS. The decision support for areas prone to landslide is implemented using the same algorithm by monitoring the rainfall intensity and daily rainfall according to the critical isohyet of rainfall intensity and accumulated rain amount.

5. Implementation of debris ow triggering mechanism The representative rainfall of a landslide or a debris ow creek is identied from its ve nearby rain gauge stations and is interpolated to the landslide spot or overow point of the creek using the IDW method in ArcGIS (Yu et al., 2006a). A rain event begins (at time t1 ) when the rainfall intensity is over 0.4 mm/hr and
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6. Databases in the WebGIS for hazard analysis Map layers in the WebGIS for aiding judgment of potential slopeland hazards during heavy rain events include the locations of 1,420 creeks prone to debris ow (Fig. 11) and their corresponding potentially endangered downstream areas. The creeks prone to debris ow are classied into three grades as low, medium

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locations of 455 mountainous villages secure buildings over 15 secure buildings over 5~15 debris flow potential high potential medium potential low potential
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Fig. 11 Locations of 1,420 debris ow prone streams and 455 potentially isolated mountainous villages

Fig. 10 Display of townships over critical threshold rainfall level

and high potential according to their mitigated engineering facilities, geological, topographic, hydraulic characteristics and eld investigations by SWCB. The debris ow potentially endangered downstream areas were delineated according to the historical hazard areas, numerical modeling and eld investigations. Chen et al. (2004a) and Yu et al. (2006b) also dened the endangered downstream areas from debris ow using GIS. One delineated example in Songher Tribute, Taichung County is shown in Fig. 12. The routes for recurrent rockfall are presented in Fig. 13 and those with agricultural areas are prepared for emergency rescue or evacuation in the 455 potentially isolated mountainous villages during heavy rains. The historical rain and seismic induced landslides and also their corresponding geologic conditions are presented in Fig. 14.

7. Operational process during typhoon hit Taiwan The Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) is activated when a typhoon is about to hit Taiwan. The function of the Assessment Group in CEOC is assembling and coordinating the Central Weather

Bureau, SWCB, National Fire Agency, Water Resources Agency, NCDR and advisory specialists for judgment of potential hazards, declaration and provide suggestions for the CEOC commander. The NCDR provides risk vulnerability assessments of ood and slopeland hazards based on the WebGIS decision support system. The determinanting factors and information for issuing slopeland hazard warnings include rainfall intensity, duration, accumulated rainfall, time to peak rainfall, potential risk of stream to debris ow, site conditions, and the initiation histories. The spatial rainfall distribution is an important information to identify areas with concentrated rainfall and those with high potential to initiate slopeland-related hazards. Figure 15 shows the decision process of slopeland hazards using the system. The areas prone to initiated debris ow can be listed for the purpose of inquiring and editing. For example, areas that are not going to initiate debris ow based on judgment from specialists can be deleted from the list. In addition, the temporal rainfall history of nearby rain gauge stations for debris ow prone area can be listed and their intensity can be displayed on the desktop for determining whether its type and intensity is correlated to the initiation time of debris ow (Chen et al., 2005). Figure 16 shows the areas with concentrated rains and the rainfall intensity at rain
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Fig. 12 Delineated debris ow downstream endangered areas at Songher Tribute, Taichung County

gauge stations during the impact of Typhoon Mindulle that brought torrential rains in 2004. The Web-based decision support system started to operate and provided decision support from 2001 when

Typhoon Nari hit Taiwan. The number of fatalities was considerably less in the aftermath of Typhoon Nari and Mindulle compared to the number of victims during Typhoon Toraji (Table 1). The creeks prone to outburst debris ow for judgment from the available

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100 Kilometers

agricultural roads routes potential to rockfall and landslide

Fig. 13 Routes for recurrent rockfall areas and for agriculture in mountainous areas Springer Fig. 14 Historical rains and seismic induced landslides and their corresponding geologic conditions

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Historical landslide events

Historical debris flow events

Rainfall events to hazard Critical isohyet for landslides Basic GIS layers : Locations of 1,420 debris flow prone areas and debris overflow points Delineated debris flow endangered areas Secure objects 455 mountainous villages Routes for agriculture Historical landslides and debris flows Geologic map Debris flow threshold line Ground based rainfall monitoring QPESUMS Rainfall over threshold line Analysis of slopeland hazards: debris flow potential rainfall time history topography geology engineering facilities areas of rains concentrated rainfall intensity accumulative rainfall rainfall duration

Slopeland hazards warning

Fig. 15 Decision support process for slopeland hazard warning

information are displayed in the screen on the users desktop (Fig. 17), and the locations of initiated hazards were uploaded to the system to provide real-time information for the user (Fig. 18).

warning was particularly developed in the aftermath of the M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake that induced loose soil mantle. The essence of the internet-based decision support system is not to automatically show the potentially dangerous area, but rather utilize a judgment process by
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8. Conclusion A web-based slopeland hazard decision support system (DSS) based on real-time monitored rainfall is developed in NCDR. The spatial DSS for slopeland hazard

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Fig. 16 Real-time display of rainfall intensity when Typhoon Mindulle hit Taiwan

Fig. 17 Display of streams prone to outburst debris ow when Typhoon Mindulle brought heavy rainfall to Taiwan in 2004 Springer

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Environ Monit Assess (2007) 127:419428 downstream hazard areas delineation. Environmental Geology, 47(1), 91101. Chen, H., Chen, R.H., & Lin, M.L. (1999). Initiation of Tungmen debris ow, eastern Taiwan. Environmental & Engineering Geoscience, 5(4), 459473. Chen, T.C., Lin, M.L., & Hung, J.J. (2004b). Pseudostatic analysis of Tsao-Ling rockslide caused by Chi-Chi earthquake. Engineering Geology, 71(12), 3147. Chigira, M., Wang, W.N., Takahiko, F.T., & Toshitaka, K.T. (2003). Geological causes and geomorphological precursors of the Tsaoling landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan. Engineering Geology, 68, 259273. Crossland, M.D., Perkins, W.C., & Wynne, B.E. (1995). Spatial decision support systems: an overview of technology and a test efciency Decision Support Systems, 14(3), 219235. Densham, P.J., & Goodchild, F. (1989). Spatial decision support systems: A research agenda. Proceedings GIS/LIS98, Orlando, FL., pp. 707716. Eom, S. B., Lee, S.M., Kim, E.B., & Somarajan, C. (1998). A survey of decision support system applications (19881994). The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 49(2), 109120. Junkhiaw, S., Sivongs, W., Sukhapunnaphan, T., & Tangtham, N. (2004). Developing ood warning system for upland watersheds of the Chao Phraya basin. 6th International Study Conferences on GEWAX in Asia and GAME, Japan: Kyoto International Community House. December, pp. 35. Lazzari, M., & Salvaneschi, P. (1999). Embedding a Geographic Information System in a Decision Support System for Landslide Hazard Monitoring. Natural Hazards, 20, 185 195. Lee, C.S., Huang, L.R., Shen, H.S., & Wang, S.T. (2006). A climatology model for forecasting typhoon rainfall in Taiwan. Natural Hazards, 37, 87105. Lin, F.T., & Hsu, P.H. (2005). The development of disaster management information systems in Taiwan. International Training Program for Typhoon and Flood Disasters Reduction, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Mar 2125, Taipei, Taiwan. Prastacos, P. (2002). ANFAS: A decision support system for river oods, In: Pillmann, W., & Tochtermann, K. (Eds), Proceedings of 16th International Conference: Informatics for Environmental Protection Environmental Communication in the Information Society, Vienna University of Technology, Vol. 2, paper 120. Shou, K.J., & Wang, C.F. (2003). Analysis of the Chiufengershan landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Engineering Geology, 68, 237250. Wu, J.H., Wang, W.N., Chang, C.S., & Wang, C.L. (2005). Effects of strength properties of discontinuities on the unstable lower slope in the Chiu-fen-erh-shan landslide, Taiwan. Engineering Geology, 78, 173186. Yu, F.C., T.C., Chen, T.C., Lin, M.L., Chen, C.Y., & Yu, W.H. (2006a). Landslides and Rainfall Characteristics Analysis in Taipei City during Typhoon Nari Event. Natural Hazards, 37, 153167. Yu, F.C., Chen, C.Y., Chen, T.C., Hong, F.Y., & Lin, S.C. (2006b). A GIS process for debris ow potentially endangered areas delineating. Natural Hazards, 37, 169189.

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which information is collected to help experts judging the location of the potential slopeland hazards. Victims of slopeland hazards have been decreasing since the implementation of the response mechanism by the Assessment Group in Taiwans Central Emergency Operation Center for declaration and pre-evacuation in potentially endangered areas during heavy rains. Nevertheless, the system is limited by the available number of rain gauge stations and other environmental information especially in the mountainous areas. This warning system can be further enhanced with the incorporation of GIS for the monitoring of spatial distribution of rainfall, and identifying the areas prone to triggering slopeland hazards in zones that experience torrential rainfall, and in combination with the QPESUMS radar system for short-range rainfall distribution estimation.

References
Chen, C.Y., Chen, T.C., Yu, F.C., Yu, W.H., & Tseng, C.C. (2005). Rainfall duration and debris-ow initiated studies for real-time monitoring. Environmental Geology, 47, 715 724. Chen, C.Y., Lin, L.Y., Yu, F.C., Lee, C.S., Tseng, C.C., & Wang, A.X. (2006). Debris ow threshold monitoring by QPESUMS. Natural Hazards.(accept) Chen, C.Y., Chen, T.C., Yu, F.C., & Hung, F.Y. (2004a). A landslide dam breach induced debris ow A case study on

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