CLIMATE CHANGE AND

WATER CRISIS
Dr. Umit Sahin
Co-Spokesperson, Green Party of Turkey
1
2
 Global Warming Status
by James Hansen

1. Knowledge Gap Between

- What is Understood (science)
- What is Known (public)
2. Planetary Emergency
- Climate Inertia
Warming in Pipeline
- Tipping Points
Could Lose Control

3. Good News & Bad News

- Safe Level of CO2 < 350 ppm
- Multiple Benefits of Solution 3
 Tipping Point Definitions
by James Hansen

1. Tipping Level
- Climate forcing (greenhouse gas amount)
reaches a point such that no additional
forcing is required for large climate
change and impacts
2. Point of No Return
- Climate system reaches a point with
unstoppable irreversible climate impacts
(irreversible on a practical time scale)
Example: disintegration of large ice sheet
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
 Greenland

Discharge from major

Greenland ice streams
is accelerating markedly.

Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen,

Univ. of Colorado

14
 Greenland

Melt descending
into a moulin,
a vertical shaft
carrying water
to ice sheet base.

Source: Roger Braithwaite,

University of Manchester (UK)
15
 Greenland Total Melt Area –
2007 value exceeds last maximum by 10%
1998

Total Melt Area

April - October
3.00E+07 2007
Area Melted (km2)

2005
2.50E+07
1998
2002 2007
1987 1991
1995

2.00E+07

1.50E+07

1983
1.00E+07 1996
1996
1992

5.00E+06
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year
16
Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder
 Rongbuk Glacier

Rongbuk glacier in 1968 (top) and 2007. The largest glacier

on Mount Everest’s northern slopes feeds Rongbuk River.
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
 2030 Projections for Turkey
TEMPERATURE RISE!

0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
5

WINTER SUMMER
+2 C +2-3 C
35
(IPCC, 1991 and 1996)
2030 Projections for Turkey
RAINFALL DECREASE!

WINTER SUMMER
+%0-10 –%5-15

Soil humidity: Summer -%15-25 36

37
38
39
40
41
Factors affecting CO2 emission - and TURKEY

• Industrialization (medium)
• Fossil fuel dependency (high)
– 75% of energy, 91% of transport
• Population (17. in the world –
70.000.000)
• Size of economy (19. in the world –
363,300,000 USD)
• High energy intensity (3,8 – two times
OECD avarage, three times Germany)
42
 TURKEY’S CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING

• Medium size GHG emitter

• Increasing share
• Percapita emissions are
disproportionately high
• Energy use ineffective

43
 CO2 - TOP 25 (2004)
1. ABD %23,6 13. Đspanya %1,4
(AB %15,3) 14. Meksika %1,4
2. Çin %13,8 15. Ukrayna %1,3
3. Rusya %6,7 16. Polonya %1,3
4. Japonya %4,5 17. Đran %1,3
5. Hindistan %4,3 18. Güney Afrika %1,2
6. Almanya %3,4
19. Suudi Arabistan %1,0
7. Kanada %2,5
20. Brezilya %1,0
8. Britanya %2,2
9. Đtalya %1,9 21. Endonezya %1,0
10. Fransa %1,9 22. Türkiye %1,0
11. Avustralya %1,8 23. Tayland %08
12. Güney Kore %1,5 24. Hollanda %0,7
25. Cezayir %0,5 44
Turkey’s share increasing fast

• 1990 - 170 million tonnes

• 2004 - 296 million tonnes
• 2005 – 312.4 million tonnes
• from 2004 to 2005 16.4 million tonnes
• Annual increase rate 5.5%

45
• 1990-2004 72,6%
• 1990-2005 84%
• 1990-2006 95%

46
 Turkey’s CO2 emissions -
COAL, NATURAL GAS AND OIL
• 2006
– Coal 101,7 million tonnes
– Natural gas 60,5 million tonnes
– Oil 77,3 million tonnes
• 1990 - 2006 increase
– Coal 75,8%
– Natural gas 826,3%
– Oil 23,7%

47
 Turkey’s CO2 emissions and energy

• 2004 %76,7 of all emissions

• 1990-2004 increase from

– energy 73,1%
– from transport 55,5%

48
After 2012 business as usual scenario

PER CAPITA EMISSIONS

• 2005 - 4.5 tonnes

• 2012 -- 6 tonnes

• 2020 --- 9 tonnes

49
 Target CO2:

< 350 ppm

To preserve creation, the planet on
which civilization developed

JAMES HANSEN 50
GREEN ENERGY POLICY

51
Kyoto Protocol

52
53
54
Teşekkür ederim...

55