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Empirical and theoretical work [Lissauer, et al. 2011] indicates that for neighboring planets, period
ratios below 1.25 are uncommon. The rate of observed T3S1Ms, as well as cases with higher
arity (3 to 8 per Kepler target) indicate that the great majority of T3S1Ms are spurious, and their
presence in a sample indicates the presence and relative frequency of FPE. We henceforth use
the term single T3S1s to indicate T3S1s that are not part of a T3S1M.
The large areas outside hot zones, henceforth cool zones, are not free of FPE, as indicated by
the T3S1Ms distributed widely across the detector surface. It is not possible to expand in any
straightforward manner the geometric extent of the hot zones so as to arrive at large cool zones
relatively free of FPE.
TCEs are detected as a series of three or more putative transits with a favorable signal-to-noise
ratio (SNR). As conceived, a threshold of SNR>7.1 should result in an extremely low rate of FPE
[Jenkins, Caldwell, & Borucki 2002]. A complication in this framework is that Kepler targets have
noise that varies as a function of time, as seen in the logs of quarterly CDPP [Jenkins, et al.
2010]. If the putative transits associated with a TCE occur at a time of elevated noise, and the
noise in the SNR calculation is calculated according to a lower baseline, the calculated noise will
be less than the noise at the time of the putative transits and therefore the calculated SNR will
exceed the true SNR. This allows many spurious TCEs with true SNR below threshold to have a
calculated SNR over threshold. A modest discrepancy in SNR corresponds to a large increase in
the probability of spurious detections. For example, a 20% overestimate in SNR, given a
Gaussian distribution of occurrence and a threshold of SNR=7.1, increases the occurrence rate of
random events over threshold by a factor of 104, from 6.210-13 to 6.710-9.
A useful factor for analyzing the occurrence of T3S1s is seasonal noise. Certain regions on the
Kepler instrument detector surface have noise variation with a strong seasonal cycle as quarterly
rolls change the direction of solar irradiance and therefore temperature-dependent performance
characteristics of the instrument [Jenkins, et al. 2010]. Each T3S1 was observed only during a
particular season, named for the approximately corresponding seasons in the Northern
hemisphere. The electronic artifacts that cause FPE are largely defined by a strong seasonal
cycle that varies locally across the detector surface and can be used to predict likely FPE in the
cool zones.
When a region that is particularly noisy in one season is used to observe the same Kepler targets
three times, with four quarterly rolls between putative transit events, the noise is systematically
underestimated, SNR is systematically overestimated, and FPE occur in abundance.
In principle, a detailed account of instrument characteristics and target noise would allow for an
analytical solution to this problem, estimating SNR correctly in all cases such that a threshold of
7.1 would, as intended, preclude virtually all FPE. It is beyond the scope of this paper to address
all relevant characteristics of the data processing pipeline. We show that a simple model using
quarterly CDPP data [CDPP cite] models FPE generation sufficiently to produce a subset of
TCEs with a greatly reduced proportion of FPE.
Model
Given the detection of P transiting planets, the intrinsic frequency, , of such planets is given by
Equation 1, where CG is the fraction of geometric completeness of observations, CT is the
fraction of such planets that would transit their star at least three times during the time of
observations, and CS is the fraction of such planets whose transit series would exceed the SNR
threshold applied to observations [F12].

P = P / (CG * CT* CS)

Equation 1.
TCEs represent an intermediate stage in the processing pipeline before the determination of
candidacy or probable planet status; they represent three distinct phenomena as expressed in
Equation 2: planets, P; astrophysical false positives, FPA; and FPE. P, and therefore P, can be
constrained to the accuracy of FPA and FPE.
P = TCE - FPA - FPE
Equation 2.
As a determining factor of FPE, we consider an observational noise bias, NObs, the ratio of noise
during the specific time windows surrounding each possible transit in a series to the baseline
noise over all observations of that target. We may consider this quantity to have two components:
A between-quarter component which is demonstrated by the variation in quarterly calculations of
CDPP, and a possible within-quarter component which is herein ignored; this study will
demonstrate that the between-quarter factor, measured by quarterly CDPP calculated over 3 hour
intervals, explains the overwhelming majority of FPE. The observational noise bias is presented
in Equation 3, defined as the mean CDPP-3 of the quarters in which the possible transits occur
divided by a baseline of the mean CDPP-3 of the three quarters, a, b, and c, demonstrating least
noise:
NObs(x, y, z) = (CDPPx + CDPPy + CDPPx)/(CDPPa + CDPPb + CDPPc)
Equation 3.
The causative role of NObs in generating FPE can be demonstrated in at least three ways. First,
by showing that T3S1s are significantly more frequent in observations made during high NObs
than low NObs. Second, by showing that T3S1Ms, which are nearly all spurious, are significantly
more frequent in high-NObs observations. Third, by showing that high-NObs observations exceed
astrophysical plausibility but low-NObs do not. This moreover provides a useful constraint on for
various planetary classes with periods of about one year, and identifies a short list of specific
TCEs which may contain the first extrasolar earthlike planets to be observed.
Results
Quarterly Noise and False Positive Generation
To demonstrate the effect of NObs on FPE generation, we consider the 113,860 Kepler targets
that were observed each quarter during Q1-Q12. We divide observations into four alternating
seasons, each corresponding to three quarters with a shared spacecraft orientation. Each Kepler
target in this analysis was therefore observed during four seasons, with a distinct value of NObs
for each season. If NObs does not influence FPE generation, then the target set's respective
seasons of least NObs , greatest NObs, and the two in between should produce approximately
equal numbers of TCEs. In fact, the seasons of least NObs yielded only 8 TCEs, and the seasons
of greatest NObs yielded 866 (88.4% of the total). Both of these are significant deviations from
the mean of 245 per season (p<0.001). Over this set of targets, there are 168 targets with
associated T3S1Ms. 157 (93.5%) of these were observed during the season of greatest NObs,
which is a significant deviation from the mean of 42 per season (p<0.001). It should be noted that
due to shorter operations in Q1, the Spring season has significantly lower CT than the other
seasons. However, the results given here are not a byproduct of that. In fact, Spring is prone to
be the quarter of greatest NObs and as indicated in Figu 3 33 3 3

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objects of planetary mass, this should be a rare occurrence because the range of allowable
periods varies only 14% from a mode of 370d; furthermore, the weight of probable periods is
significantly concentrated towar

ere observed
at least six total quarters. For these targets, we consider T3S1s as a function of target-season
NObs. It is moreover useful to separate the data for Cool and Hot zones, and also display cases
with single and multiple T3S1s per target-s