14037imm Charts

TEXAS GOP REGIONAL VOTER SURVEY
March 15 - 16, 2014 N = 600 respondents

n=200 in CD 3, n=200 in CD 8, & n=200 in CD 21
margin of error: + 4.0%

The m.o.e. in each CD is + 6.9%
COMPARISON OF AGE DISTRIBUTION Voter File Versus Respondents

CD 3 Voter file CD 3 respondents 18-49 31.9% 31.0% 18-49 29.0% 29.5% 18-49 24.3% 23.5% 50-59 25.8% 23.5% 50-59 23.6% 23.0% 50-59 21.7% 20.5% 60-69 22.4% 23.0% 60-69 24.1% 23.5% 60-69 25.0% 25.5% 70+ 19.8% 20.5% 70+ 23.2% 23.5% 70+ 29.0% 30.0% age unkn. 0.1% 2.0% age unkn. 0.1% 0.5% age unkn. 0.0% 0.5%
CD 8 Voter file CD 8 respondents
CD 21 Voter file CD 21 respondents
Baselice & Associates, Inc. Project# 14037
IDEOLOGY AND TEA PARTY

On most issues, do you consider yourself to be
47%
Very Conservative
33%
Somewhat Conservative
15% 3% 2%
Moderate Unsure Liberal
Which best describes how closely you identify with the Tea Party movement?
29%
Very strongly
43%
Somewhat aligned
12% 13% 4%
Not very aligned Not Unsure at all aligned
Ideology
Total CD - Congressional District CD 3 CD 8 CD 21 RRGOPVT - GOP Vote History 1-2 R Voter 3-5 R Voter TEA - Identify with the Tea Party movement... Very strongly Somewhat aligned Not very aligned Not at all Unsure / Refused
Base
Very Conservative 47%
Somewhat Somewhat Conser- Moderate Liberal vative 33% 15% 2%
Very Liberal 1%
Unsure / Refused 2%
600
200 200 200
42% 53% 46%
33% 31% 35%
19% 12% 15%
3% 2% 3%
1% 1% 1%
2% 1% 1%
315 285
43% 51%
34% 32%
18% 13%
3% 1%
1% 1%
2% 2%
173 256 69 77 24
77% 45% 10% 17% 58%
17% 41% 57% 28% 3%
2% 12% 32% 40% 13%
1% 12% 10%
* * 3% -
3% 1% 16%
Tea Party Alignment

Total CD - Congressional District CD 3 CD 8 CD 21 RRGOPVT - GOP Vote History 1-2 R Voter 3-5 R Voter RRIDEOL - Ideology Very Conservative Somewhat Conservative Mod/Lib/Unsure
Base
Very Somewhat strongly aligned 29% 43%
Not very aligned 12%
Not at all
Unsure / Refused 4%
Base
600
13%
600
200 200 200
28% 33% 26%
39% 43% 47%
13% 10% 12%
17% 10% 11%
3% 5% 4%
200 200 200
315 285 281 198 121
25% 33% 47% 15% 8%
43% 42% 41% 54% 30%
12% 11% 2% 20% 19%
15% 11% 5% 11% 35%
5% 3% 5% * 8%
315 285 281 198 121
VOTED IN GOP PRIMARY ELECTION

QF. Which best describes you in terms of the Republican Primary election held last week on March Fourth?
I voted early and in-person I voted on election day
39% 27% 6% 28% <.5%

41% 1-2 R 13% 3-5 R 30% CD03 29% CD08 25% CD21
72% Voted
58% 1-2 R 87% 3-5 R 70% CD03 71% CD08 75% CD21
I voted by mail
I did not vote in that election
Unsure / refused
WHY DID NOT VOTE

Q5. IF NOT VOTED: Thinking of what went into your decision NOT to vote in the primary election for Congress, which one of the following was the primary reason you did you not vote?
(n=169) Too busy Did not feel strongly enough about the candidates running Forgot Did not like candidate position on ObamaCare Did not like candidate position on immigration reform Other reason Unsure / refused
46% 20% 14% 2% 1% 18% 0%
CD 3 BALLOT
Q1A. IF VOTED: For which one of the following candidates DID you vote for in the Republican primary election for U.S. Representative? IF NOT VOTED: Had you voted, for which one of the following candidates WOULD you have voted for in the Republican primary election for U.S. Representative?
(n=200 in CD 3)
Sam Johnson Cami Dean Josh Loveless Harry Pierce Didnt vote in that election / skipped it Other Undecided / refused
63% 1% 2% 3% 8% 3% 20%
67% 0% 3% 3% 6% 4% 16%
87.0% 0% 3.7% 4.6% x 4.6% x
80.0% 6.3% 5.4% 7.8% x x x
The margin of error to n=140 interview is +/- 8.3%
* Extrapolated removed undecided/refused and didnt vote / skipped it.
CD 21 BALLOT
Q1B. IF VOTED: For which one of the following candidates DID you vote for in the Republican primary election for U.S. Representative? IF NOT VOTED: Had you voted, for which one of the following candidates WOULD you have voted for in the Republican primary election for U.S. Representative?
(n=200 in CD 21)
Lamar Smith Matt McCall Michael Smith Didnt vote in that election / skipped it Other Undecided / refused
52% 21% 3% 3% 2% 20%
53%
64.5% 60.4%
24%
28.9% 33.9%
3%
4.1%
5.7%
2%
2%
2.5%
17%
CD 8 BALLOT
Q1C. IF VOTED: For which one of the following candidates DID you vote for in the Republican primary election for U.S. Representative? IF NOT VOTED: Had you voted, for which one of the following candidates WOULD you have voted for in the Republican primary election for U.S. Representative?
(n=200 in CD 8)
Kevin Brady
56% 21% 3% 3% 17%
52% 65.5% 68.0%

Craig McMichael
23% 29.2% 32.0%
Didnt vote in that election / skipped it Other
2%
4%
5.3%
Undecided / refused
19%
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Q2. IF CHOICE MADE ON BALLOT: When thinking of what went into your decision for how you (IF NOT VOTED: would have) voted in the primary election for Congress, which one of the following was the top issue you considered? IF NO CHOICE MADE ON BALLOT: In thinking about the primary election for Congress, which one of the following is the most important issue to you?
Obamacare The economy & jobs Government spending
30% 21% 17% 15% 16%
18%
48%
36% 33%
Social issues like abortion 11% 5% or traditional marriage Immigration reform 5% 11% Taxes 4% 9% Other
16% 16%
13%
4% 5% 3%
Most Important Issue Next Most Important Issue
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Base The economy & jobs Obamacare Government spending Taxes Immigration reform Social issues like abortion or traditional marriage 11% Other Unsure
Total CD - Congressional District 003 008 021 RQF - GOP Primary Vote Voted Didn't vote RRGOPVT - GOP Vote History 1-2 R Voter 3-5 R Voter RRIDEOL - Ideology Very Conservative Somewhat Conservative Mod/Lib/Unsure TEA - Identify with the Tea Party movement... Very strongly Somewhat aligned Not very aligned Not at all Unsure / Refused Q3 - Immigration Reform Significance Extremely significant Very significant EXTREMELY + VERY Somewhat significant Not very significant Unsure / Refused
600
21%
30%
17%
4%
5%
4%
8%
200 200 200 431 169
27% 19% 16% 20% 22%
30% 29% 30% 29% 31%
14% 21% 18% 16% 21%
5% 5% 4% 3% 8%
3% 6% 5% 5% 4%
10% 10% 13% 12% 8%
4% 3% 4% 5% 1%
7% 8% 9% 9% 5%
315 285 281 198 121
21% 20% 18% 20% 27%
30% 30% 33% 26% 29%
19% 16% 14% 24% 16%
4% 5% 2% 7% 5%
5% 5% 4% 4% 7%
10% 12% 16% 8% 4%
3% 5% 2% 6% 5%
7% 9% 10% 5% 7%
173 256 69 77 24
19% 22% 18% 25% 8%
36% 26% 36% 24% 26%
16% 18% 21% 15% 23%
2% 5% 5% 8% -
3% 5% 5% 10% -
12% 12% 7% 6% 14%
3% 4% 4% 5% 4%
7% 8% 4% 7% 25%
101 217 318 171 87 23
17% 20% 19% 22% 25% 11%
39% 33% 35% 27% 21% 11%
14% 15% 15% 22% 20% 13%
1% 2% 2% 9% 7% -
9% 6% 7% 3% 5%
7% 13% 11% 10% 10% 25%
4% 4% 4% 2% 8% 8%
8% 8% 8% 5% 9% 27%
IMMIGRATION REFORM SIGNIFICANCE

Q3. IF CHOICE MADE ON THE BALLOT, ASK: Thinking of what went into your decision for how you (IF NOT VOTED: would have) voted in the primary election for Congress, how significant were the candidates positions on immigration reform. Were they.... IF NO CHOICE MADE ON THE BALLOT, ASK: Thinking about the primary election for Congress, how significant are the candidates positions on immigration reform in deciding your vote? Are they....
36% 17%
Extremely significant
29% 15% 4%
Very significant
Somewhat significant
Not very significant
Unsure / refused
OBAMACARE SIGNIFICANCE
Q4. IF CHOICE MADE ON THE BALLOT, ASK: Thinking of what went into your decision for how you (IF NOT VOTED: would have) voted in the primary election for Congress, how significant were the candidates positions on ObamaCare. Were they.... IF NO CHOICE MADE ON THE BALLOT, ASK: Thinking about the primary election for Congress, how significant are the candidates positions on ObamaCare in deciding your vote? Are they....
37%
36% 12% 11%

Not very significant
4%
Unsure / refused
Extremely significant
Very significant
Somewhat significant
SIGNIFICANCE OF CANDIDATE POSITIONS

Significance of candidate position on immigration reform Significance of candidate position on ObamaCare. Base Extremely Very EXTREME Somewhat Not very significant significant + VERY significant significant Extremely Very EXTREME Somewhat Not very significant significant + VERY significant significant
Total CD - Congressional District 003 008 021 RQF - GOP Primary Vote Voted Didn't vote RRGOPVT - GOP Vote History 1-2 R Voter 3-5 R Voter RRIDEOL - Ideology Very Conservative Somewhat Conservative Mod/Lib/Unsure TEA - Identify with the Tea Party movement... Very strongly Somewhat aligned Not very aligned Not at all Unsure / Refused
600
17%
36%
53%
29%
15%
37%
36%
73%
12%
11%
200 200 200 431 169
16% 21% 14% 19% 12%
34% 35% 40% 38% 31%
50% 56% 53% 57% 43%
34% 25% 27% 25% 36%
14% 14% 16% 13% 17%
36% 39% 35% 41% 26%
37% 36% 36% 35% 41%
73% 74% 71% 75% 67%
9% 11% 16% 11% 16%
15% 10% 9% 10% 14%
315 285 281 198 121
15% 18% 25% 12% 7%
35% 37% 42% 34% 26%
51% 56% 67% 46% 33%
30% 27% 19% 35% 41%
15% 14% 11% 16% 20%
33% 40% 50% 29% 18%
34% 38% 37% 41% 29%
68% 79% 87% 70% 46%
14% 10% 6% 15% 22%
13% 9% 4% 12% 25%
173 256 69 77 24
25% 17% 11% 7% 7%
41% 40% 28% 23% 34%
66% 56% 39% 30% 41%
20% 27% 46% 38% 19%
11% 14% 13% 27% 11%
52% 38% 20% 17% 26%
37% 41% 37% 18% 46%
89% 78% 57% 36% 72%
5% 11% 24% 20% 9%
4% 8% 18% 33% 5%
CONGRESS ACTING ON IMMMIG REFORM

Q6. When you consider immigration reform, how important is it to you that Congress act on the issue this year?
74%
27%
Somewhat
47%
Very
22% 4%
Not very 10% Not at all
12%
Important
Depends / unsure / refused
Not Important
CONGRESS ACTING ON IMMMIG REFORM

Base Very Somewhat important important TOTAL IMPORTANT Not Not very important important at all TOTAL NOT IMPORTANT DEPENDS / UNSURE NET IMPORTANT
600
47%
27%
74%
12%
10%
22%
4%
52%
200 200 200 431 169
34% 55% 51% 47% 46%
35% 22% 25% 26% 31%
69% 77% 76% 73% 77%
12% 11% 13% 12% 13%
13% 10% 6% 11% 6%
25% 21% 19% 23% 20%
6% 2% 5% 4% 3%
44% 56% 57% 50% 57%
315 285 281 198 121
47% 46% 53% 41% 42%
27% 27% 22% 31% 32%
75% 73% 75% 73% 75%
12% 12% 11% 14% 12%
9% 11% 11% 9% 8%
21% 22% 21% 23% 20%
4% 4% 4% 4% 5%
54% 51% 53% 49% 54%
173 256 69 77 24
46% 51% 32% 46% 58%
16% 31% 38% 32% 22%
62% 81% 71% 78% 80%
13% 11% 18% 8% 8%
20% 6% 4% 8% -
33% 17% 22% 16% 8%
4% 2% 7% 6% 12%
29% 64% 48% 62% 72%
SUPPORT OF IMMIGRATION REFORM

Q7. If Congress were able to pass immigration reform that secured our borders, required undocumented immigrants to pay a fine, pay back taxes and pass a criminal background check before they could legally stay in the US, expand visas for high skill workers and seasonal workers, and modernize the visa system, would you say you support or oppose that reform?
78%
32%
Somewhat
47%
Strongly
10%
Support
12%
4% Somewhat 8% Strongly
Oppose
SUPPORT OF IMMIGRATION REFORM

Base Support / Support / TOTAL Oppose / Oppose / Strongly Somewhat SUPPORT Somewhat Strongly TOTAL DEPENDS SUPPORT OPPOSE / UNSURE - OPPOSE
600
47%
32%
78%
4%
8%
12%
10%
66%
200 200 200 431 169
44% 53% 44% 45% 53%
33% 26% 35% 32% 32%
77% 79% 79% 76% 84%
5% 4% 3% 5% 3%
10% 6% 7% 9% 4%
15% 10% 11% 14% 7%
8% 11% 11% 10% 9%
63% 69% 68% 62% 78%
315 285 281 198 121
49% 44% 52% 42% 42%
32% 31% 28% 37% 30%
82% 75% 80% 80% 73%
5% 3% 2% 5% 8%
6% 10% 9% 5% 9%
11% 14% 12% 9% 17%
8% 12% 8% 11% 10%
71% 61% 68% 70% 56%
173 256 69 77 24
50% 46% 45% 41% 57%
25% 35% 36% 38% 15%
74% 81% 81% 79% 73%
3% 5% 6% 3% -
14% 6% 2% 7% -
18% 11% 8% 10% -
8% 8% 11% 12% 27%
57% 70% 72% 69% 73%
IMMIGRATION REFORM IN GEN. ELECTION

Q8. When you consider how you will vote in the General Election for Congress in November, which best describes how significant the candidates positions on immigration reform will be in deciding how you will vote?
86%
42%
Somewhat
44%
Very
3%
Significant
11%
8% Not very 3% Not at all
Not Significant
IMMIGRATION REFORM IN GEN. ELECTION

Base SIGNIFICA Not NOT Very Somewhat SIGNIFICA Not very DEPENDS NT - NOT significant SIGNIFICA significant significant NT significant / UNSURE SIGNIFICA at all NT NT
600
44%
42%
86%
8%
3%
11%
3%
75%
200 200 200 431 169
37% 50% 46% 46% 39%
50% 38% 38% 41% 44%
87% 88% 84% 87% 84%
7% 5% 11% 7% 8%
3% 4% 3% 3% 5%
10% 9% 13% 10% 13%
3% 3% 2% 3% 3%
76% 79% 71% 77% 71%
315 285 281 198 121
42% 47% 55% 34% 36%
44% 40% 34% 50% 47%
86% 87% 89% 85% 83%
7% 8% 6% 9% 9%
4% 3% 3% 4% 3%
11% 11% 9% 13% 12%
3% 2% 2% 3% 6%
75% 76% 80% 72% 71%
173 256 69 77 24
56% 42% 37% 30% 49%
32% 48% 45% 47% 21%
89% 90% 82% 77% 70%
5% 7% 11% 13% -
4% 2% 6% 5% 3%
9% 9% 17% 18% 3%
2% 1% 1% 5% 27%
80% 81% 65% 59% 66%
CONCLUSIONS
1
A plurality of respondents indicated ObamaCare was the most important issue (30%) in the recent GOP primary. This was followed by The Economy and Jobs (21%), Government Spending (17%), and Social Issues (11%). Immigration Reform ranked fifth as a most important issue (5%). Among those who said the candidates positions on immigration reform were extremely significant in their decision, only 9% said immigration reform was the top issue they considered. While only 5% chose immigration reform as the most important issue, over half of respondents (53%) said the candidates positions on the issue were significant to them in this election. In comparison, however, nearly threequarters of respondents (73%) said the candidates positions ObamaCare were significant. The 20 point difference in the significance of these two issues is stark among those who say these issues are extremely significant --- 17% for immigration reform and 37% for ObamaCare. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of respondents say it is important that Congress act on immigration reform this year and 78% support the reform detailed in Q7. Support for the reform in Q7 is highest among voters who are very conservative, and as alignment with the Tea Party increases, so does support.

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TEXAS GOP REGIONAL VOTER SURVEY

March 15 - 16, 2014 N = 600 respondents

margin of error: + 4.0%

COMPARISON OF AGE DISTRIBUTION Voter File Versus Respondents

CD 8 Voter file CD 8 respondents

CD 21 Voter file CD 21 respondents

Baselice & Associates, Inc. Project# 14037

IDEOLOGY AND TEA PARTY

Baselice & Associates, Inc. Project# 14037

Very Conservative 47%

Somewhat Somewhat Conser- Moderate Liberal vative 33% 15% 2%

200 200 200

42% 53% 46%

33% 31% 35%

19% 12% 15%

77% 45% 10% 17% 58%

17% 41% 57% 28% 3%

2% 12% 32% 40% 13%

Tea Party Alignment

Very Somewhat strongly aligned 29% 43%

Not very aligned 12%

200 200 200

28% 33% 26%

39% 43% 47%

13% 10% 12%

17% 10% 11%

200 200 200

315 285 281 198 121

25% 33% 47% 15% 8%

43% 42% 41% 54% 30%

12% 11% 2% 20% 19%

15% 11% 5% 11% 35%

315 285 281 198 121

VOTED IN GOP PRIMARY ELECTION

I voted early and in-person I voted on election day

39% 27% 6% 28% <.5%

I did not vote in that election

Baselice & Associates, Inc. Project# 14037

WHY DID NOT VOTE

46% 20% 14% 2% 1% 18% 0%

87.0% 0% 3.7% 4.6% x 4.6% x

80.0% 6.3% 5.4% 7.8% x x x

The margin of error to n=140 interview is +/- 8.3%

* Extrapolated removed undecided/refused and didnt vote / skipped it.

52% 21% 3% 3% 2% 20%

The margin of error to n=149 interview is +/- 8.0%

* Extrapolated removed undecided/refused and didnt vote / skipped it.

56% 21% 3% 3% 17%

52% 65.5% 68.0%

23% 29.2% 32.0%

Didnt vote in that election / skipped it Other

* Extrapolated removed undecided/refused and didnt vote / skipped it.

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Obamacare The economy & jobs Government spending

30% 21% 17% 15% 16%

Baselice & Associates, Inc. Project# 14037

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

200 200 200 431 169

27% 19% 16% 20% 22%

30% 29% 30% 29% 31%

14% 21% 18% 16% 21%

10% 10% 13% 12% 8%

315 285 281 198 121