25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012

ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 1

ANALYSIS OF THE STIFFNESS VARIABILITY IN
ASPHALT LAYERS USING THE MONTE CARLO
SIMULATION
Laszlo Petho, ARRB Group Ltd., Australia
ABSTRACT
Heavy duty pavements are currently designed using the general mechanistic approach. A major
input to the multi-layered pavement design is the stiffness of the pavement material. The
characteristics and performance of asphalt pavements are highly influenced by the daily,
monthly and yearly fluctuations of the pavement temperature, due to the
temperature-dependent nature of the bituminous materials.
The pavement design is usually performed at a single temperature, which cannot describe fully
the continuous change of the hot mix asphalt mechanical property over the design period. In
this paper probability mass functions are provided to describe the stiffness fluctuation of
structural asphalt layers under in-service conditions, where the well-established and validated
Witczak method was used for stiffness prediction. The calculations are based on the stochastic
approach, using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The calculations are based on standard
bituminous binder properties combined with standard mix composition.
The conclusions of this paper confirm the importance of careful material selection within the
asphalt pavement considering pavement design and asphalt technology issues, and also
highlight the possible application of innovative technologies.
INTRODUCTION
In the analytical pavement design process it is essential to know the stiffness and fatigue
properties of bound pavement layers. The stiffness is a key performance indicator and a primary
input for mechanistic pavement design. The stiffness value greatly influences the pavement
thickness in the design procedure; therefore it is paramount to know realistic stiffness values of
different asphalt mixes for the design of flexible or semi-rigid asphalt pavements. It should be
noted that the fatigue performance of hot mix asphalt is of paramount importance in pavement
design and the fine balance between stiffness and fatigue performance provides the most
cost-effective pavement design option. This approach also provides the basis for perpetual
pavement design.
The road authorities might apply different strategies in their pavement design. The selected
strategy in the pavement design approach might include a certain level of uncertainty in the
material behaviour, which leads to more or less conservative pavement design. This paper does
not discuss these strategies in detail; however, it highlights the importance of the performance
distribution of the hot mix asphalt (HMA) products and therefore, indirectly, the reliability of the
material performance. Before choosing any pavement design strategy it is crucial to have a
good insight into the range of the HMA stiffness under in-service conditions, and how this might
influence the performance fluctuation. This paper deals with the performance assessment of
HMA as a function of the pavement temperature.
For HMA production there are many different types of bituminous binders available (plain binder,
polymer modified binder, rubber modified binder, multigrade binder, etc.). Taking into account
that many different aggregate sources are available (volcanic, sediment, metamorphic), and the
aggregate source might have different chemical properties (acidic or basic) with many different
particle size distributions (PSD), it is obvious that the variability of HMA properties is very high.
The pavement engineer is not aware of the in situ HMA properties when the pavement design is
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 2
performed for a particular project, since pavement and alignment design happens on large
projects sometimes several years before the actual HMA production starts. Because of the
nature of the planning and construction process, this problem has always been an issue;
consequently there was always a need for the pre-assessment of HMA product performance. In
a particular project, following the pavement design phase, a pre-assessment process can be
performed before the actual mix design starts, since the asphalt technologist tries to minimise
the number of iterative steps before and during the mix design.
The Shell stiffness prediction model for HMA
In 1963 Shell published a set of design charts for flexible pavements, based on an analytical
method with design criteria derived from empirical design methods, which basically resulted
from the AASHO Road Test and laboratory data. In 1978 this system was extended to
incorporate all relevant major design parameters and published in the Shell Pavement Design
Manual (SPDM) (Shell 1978). In 1985 the method was updated in an Addendum based on
experience over the previous ten years. The PC version of SPDM was developed, since
personal computers had become within the reach of engineers (Valkering & Stapel 1992). The
then introduced new program consisted of modules for the prediction of the binder stiffness (van
der Poel nomograph), the asphalt mix stiffness and the fatigue life of the asphalt mix. Some of
the modules had appeared in a package called Bitumen and Asphalt Nomographs Developed
by Shell (BANDS) (Koole, Valkering, & Stapel 1989), which is usually available within the Shell
software package.
In order to overcome the difficulties caused by the gap between the pavement design phase
and actual HMA production as described earlier, correlation equations were and are developed
for HMA property prediction. This approach helps the engineers to be able to assess the
mechanical properties of asphalt mixes from the basic physical properties of the ingredients and
volumetrics of the assumed HMA product. The method developed by Shell is well-known and it
is applied and used by many European countries and Australia. It has been successfully utilised
by researchers and the industry for many infrastructure projects. The method used is based on
the work reported by Bonnaure et al. (1977) and it was developed on twelve typical asphalts
from the 1970s. The method was developed based on laboratory testing using a 2-point
bending apparatus for trapezoidal specimens. Twelve typical formulations of asphalt mixes were
selected for the tests so as to cover a whole range of mixes for road, air-field and hydraulic
applications as follows:
five wearing course mixes comprising two asphaltic concretes, a German Gussasphalt, a
British rolled asphalt and a British open-graded mix
five basecourse mixes, including coarse asphaltic concrete, gravel sand and bitumen
stabilised sands
one asphalt grouting mix used in hydraulic structures and one filler/bitumen asphalt mastic
for waterproofing (Bonnaure et al. 1977).
The mixes, vastly different in composition but all standard mixes for road applications in various
countries were studied. The complex relationship obtained from the laboratory test series
formed the basis of the S
mix
determination as described in Equation 1.
S
mx
= (S
btumcn
; I
btumcn
; I
uggcgutc
) (1)
where
S
mix
= bitumen stiffness (measured or obtained from the van der Poel
nomograph)

V
bit
= percentage by volume of the binder in the mix
V
agg=
= percentage by volume of the mineral aggregate in the mix.

25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 3
Bonnaure and his co-authors experienced the limitations of the method (the Shell method) and
noted that the prediction model provided would not completely replace the laboratory
measurement, but provides paving technologists with a fairly good approach to stress and strain
distribution calculations in actual pavements. It should be noted that the determination of S
bit
also has its limitations, as the van der Poel nomographs are only valid for normal bitumen
binders. Since newly developed asphalt types, like open-graded asphalt (OGA), split mastic
asphalt (SMA) or dense graded asphalt (DGA) for heavy duty application could not be included
in the research work, the overall applicability of the method is limited. In detailed validation work,
the measured stiffness (indirect tensile strain method) was compared with the predicted
stiffness using the Shell method for 157 asphalt mixes (Bocz 2008). It was proven that there is a
good correlation between the predicted and measured stiffness for DGA with normal bitumen
application, but the correlation was found to be very poor for SMA and DGA asphalt with PMB
binders.
Pavement temperature variation in the Shell method
SPDM is the main framework for pavement modelling and design; SPDM utilises the
sub-module of BANDS to calculate the mix stiffness, based on the estimated pavement
temperature. For pavement design purposes a procedure had been developed to derive the
weighted mean annual air temperature (WMAAT) from mean monthly air temperatures (MMAT)
for a given location; the latter is usually readily available from local meteorological data records.
The WMAAT is converted then to an asphalt mix temperature (T
mix
) using the relationship as
given in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Relationship between effective asphalt temperature and MMAT or WMAAT
(reproduced based on Valkering & Stapel 1992)
The SPDM software takes into account the stiffness change due to the temperature influence;
however, this only occurs while iterating the entire pavement thickness, and only adjusts the
impact of thickness change on the average pavement temperature. Unfortunately, it does not
calculate the modulus of each layer, and does not take into account the different performance
between asphalt layers at different depths. Also, as explained earlier, the S
mix
stiffness
prediction model is not valid for all types of asphalt.
It can be seen that the Shell method provides a good estimate for pavement design purposes,
and it is able to overcome the limits of the computation technology of the late 80s early 90s. The
computation power and technology available today would allow a more detailed and
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
M
i
x

t
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
,

T
m
i
x
(

C
)
MMAT or w-MAAT (C)
Asphalt
thickness
h
1
mm
50
100
400
600
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 4
sophisticated approach for the calculation of the pavement response under loading. The Shell
approach is considered extremely helpful; however, more accurate methods are available for
stiffness prediction for an enhanced pavement design, as explained in this paper.
Asphalt stiffness prediction using the Witczak equation
Different asphalt stiffness prediction methods were developed since Shell published its method.
The Hirsch model (Christensen, Pellinen & Bonaquist 2003) and the Witczak model are widely
accepted and implemented. Over the past 35 years, the Witczak equation has become one of
the most rational and comprehensive forms of predictive models available in the literature
(Witczak 2005). The Witczak equation is a continuously developing model, where the new test
results are included in the multi-regression analysis, and the constants of the original equations
are continuously updated. The recent version of the equation has been developed based on 205
mixes, 171 with unmodified asphalt binders, 34 with modified binders, and results are still being
collected and the equation parameters are continuously updated accordingly. The goodness of
fit is represented by R
2
= 0.96, provided by tests conducted at 0 to 130 F temperature range
and tested on 39 aggregate types. The method is often referred to as the Witczak Predictive
Equation (WPE) and it is shown in Equation 2.
log|E

| = -1.2499S7 + u.u292Sp
200
-u.uu1767 (p
200
)
2
(2)

-u.uu2841p
4
- u.uS8u97v
a
-u.8u22u8 _
v
bcII
v
bcII
+ v
a
]


+
S.871977 -u.uu21p
4
+ u.uuS9S8p
38
-u.uuuu17 (p
38
)
2
+ u.uuS47p
34

1 + c
|-0.603313-0.313351 Iog(])-0.393532 Iog()]


where
E* = dynamic modulus, 10
5
psi
= bitumen viscosity, 1u
6
Poise
f = loading frequency, Hz
V
a
= air void content, %
V
beff
= effective bitumen content, % by volume
p
34
= cumulative % retained on the inch (19 mm) sieve
p
38
= cumulative % retained on the 3/8 inch (9.5 mm) sieve
p
4
= cumulative % retained on the No. 4 (4.76 mm) sieve
p
200
= % passing the No. 200 (0.075 mm) sieve.
Since this model applies readily available asphalt properties from the design and production
stages, and also utilises the readily available bitumen viscosity, the Witczak equation was
adopted in this study. Binders in Australia are continuously tested and assessed in standard
laboratory procedures as part of the regular production control, and therefore reliable data sets
are available. The parameters in Equation 2 used in this study are published in the NCHRP
Report 547 (Witczak 2005). In this paper the term stiffness will be used instead of the dynamic
modulus to characterise the asphalt material.
As explained earlier, the primary aim of this study is to provide an insight into the temperature
impact on the asphalt stiffness variability. The impact of the temperature on the asphalt mix
stiffness is included in Equation 2 indirectly, and it is introduced through the viscosity change of
the binder.
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 5
The impact of aggregated pavement temperature on the performance
assessment
The single temperature value at which HMA mixtures can be evaluated has been termed the
effective temperature in the literature (Fugro Consultants 2011). Effective temperature (T
eff
) can
be defined as a single test or design temperature at which the amount of a given distress within
a given pavement system, would be equivalent to that which would occur from the seasonal
temperature fluctuation throughout the annual temperature cycle. The initial T
eff
approach
considered a comprehensive analytical framework involving a factorial of environmental
locations, effective depths to compute the T
eff
value, pavement structural system, various mix
properties and responses, tyre pressures, and models of permanent strain behaviour in asphalt
mixtures (Fugro Consultants 2011). It should be noted that utilising a single value in the
pavement performance assessment (a discrete T
eff
value) was desirable in order to limit the
number of calculations due to limited computation power. It should also be noted that some of
the properties and part of the performance are hidden behind a certain T
eff
value, and do not
provide direct insight into the variability of the material property (stiffness in this case).
For a particular pavement section, the air temperature is commonly used to arrive at an effective
pavement temperature to permit the determination of the stiffness of the asphalt bound material
for pavement design purposes. Equation 3, developed originally by Witczak (1972), had been
used for a long time to estimate the pavement temperature at different depths.

HHPI = HHAI _1 +
1
(z + 4)
_ -
S4
(z +4)
+6
(3)
where
MMPT = mean monthly pavement temperature (F)
MMAT = mean monthly air temperature (F)
z = depth below the pavement surface (inch) (Shook et al.1982).
Equation 3 was developed on the detailed pavement temperature profile measurement from
1966-67, which was set up at Potsdam, New York, Clarkson College of Technology. This
research emphasised that solar radiation (radiation) has a greater influence on heat flow in the
pavement than air temperature (convection) for the increasing or decreasing of bituminous
pavement temperatures (Straub, Schenck, & Przybycien 1968). This highlights the limitations of
pavement temperature predictions from air temperatures. It also should be noted that air
temperature records are readily accessible, and this option forced researchers into the direction
of predicting pavement temperatures from average air temperatures. However, it is well know
that this approach provides data loss and has an impact on the accuracy. An improved
prediction would be possible if accurately measured pavement surface temperatures could be
obtained; however, such a data set is not readily available and requires special setup and data
acquisition. The most advanced and accurate prediction is possible through detailed air
temperature and solar radiation data analysis. In recent years there have been many attempts
to develop validated pavement temperature distribution from measured air temperature and
solar radiation data (Sun, Jia, & Qin 2006; Solaimanian & Kennedy 1994).
The effective temperature approach was recently revised as part of the NCHRP Project 1-37A.
Effective temperature for fatigue cracking (T
eff
(FC)) was developed from the observation of
LTPP sections, where sections were used to obtain varying levels of monthly based fatigue
cracking from the Superpave fatigue cracking model. The approach used was to compute
average monthly fatigue cracking and attempt to find a corresponding single temperature that
resulted in the equivalent amount of the average fatigue cracking (El-Basyouny & Jeong 2009;
Fugro Consultants 2011) The revised effective temperature model is a function of the
frequency, MMAT, -MMAT, wind, sunshine and rain; however, because the effective
temperature is an equivalent temperature value, it cannot be used to predict pavement
temperature profiles; therefore its use was not considered in this study. It should be noted that
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 6
effective temperature was also developed for permanent deformation (T
eff
(PD)) within the
NCHRP Project 1-37A, which was also based on field observations (Fugro Consultants 2011).
Weighted mean annual pavement temperature (WMAPT)
The weighted mean annual pavement temperature (WMAPT) is used in the Australian
pavement design system to adjust the in-service modulus from the measured modulus in the
laboratory. The WMAPT value is derived from the weighted monthly average air temperatures
following the SPDM method (Austroads 2012).
The primary aim of this study is to highlight the paramount importance of temperature impact on
the asphalt stiffness within the pavement structure; therefore the application of a single
pavement temperature value was not sufficient enough for the analysis provided in this study.
On the other hand, as explained earlier, it is believed that the air temperature alone is not
enough to derive pavement temperatures, since the pavement temperature is influenced more
by the solar radiation. It should be emphasised that by applying a single temperature value
(such as WMAPT) it is considered accurate enough to perform pavement design and the
utilisation of such a temperature value works well in pavement design systems , since they are
validated by detailed long-term observations.
Although this method provides an appropriate approach in pavement engineering for general
application, pavement engineers are always facing the challenge of extrapolating beyond the
existing knowledge, and predict future pavement behaviour with increased traffic and/or
improved material compositions. The general mechanistic procedure (GMP) provides an
excellent basic tool for this assessment (Austroads 2012). The level of confidence might be
increased by providing more detailed material characteristics as an input for the pavement
design by eliminating the average material properties and a more realistic performance
prediction could be developed. Powerful computation devices are now available to perform
these calculations; however, sometimes the lack of input information limits the detailed
assessment, as described later.
Detailed pavement temperature profiles
As described earlier, a simplified pavement temperature profile (or a single value) cannot
provide a basis for a detailed performance assessment of asphalt materials. However, based on
detailed pavement temperature profile, it is possible to construct the asphalt stiffness distribution
for a better understanding of the material variability due to temperature factors.
Detailed pavement temperature measurement was conducted in Australia in the 1970s and the
results are published in a series of documents (Dickinson 1981). Unfortunately the publications
provide analysed data focusing mainly on minimum and maximum pavement temperatures, and
with limited cumulative pavement temperature distribution. The recorded data set would be
essential for the detailed analysis provided in this paper; however, the source data for these
reports is rumoured to have been purged in the course of an earlier mainframe computer
upgrade (Rickards 2011). The document which summarises the Australian pavement
temperature measurement (Dickinson 1981) and the background documents for each Australian
capital city (Dickinson 1971; Dickinson 1975; Dunstan 1967) provide a general analysis of the
recorded temperatures. Histograms with wide range bins (6 C) are available at limited depths,
but these analyses unfortunately do not contain enough information to produce the probability
mass functions.
In order to highlight the importance of the temperature variability within the pavement structure,
it was decided to utilise detailed pavement temperature profiles recorded in the Central-
European climate, because such a detailed temperature profile could not be obtained for the
Australian climate. The author had the opportunity to establish a temperature measurement
device in 2006 on the access road of a major asphalt mix plant in Budapest. The device
measured the air temperature and the pavement temperature at 0 cm, -2 cm, -7 cm, -14 cm, -
29 cm and -49 cm from August 2006 to July 2007. The frequency of the temperature
measurement was 10 minutes, and the accuracy of the output was 0.1 C (Petho 2008). This
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25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 9
Table 1: Parameters used in the MCS
Property, input data Distribution,
variables
Value Source
Asphalt type (median envelope) constant, DG 20 N/A MRTS 30
1

p34 (3/4 inch sieve = 19 mm)
(cumulative per-cent retained %)
constant 5.0
p38 (3/8 inch sieve = 9.51 mm)
(cumulative per-cent retained %)
constant 32.0
p4 (No4 sieve = 4.76 mm)
(cumulative per-cent retained %)
constant 50.5
p200 (No200 sieve = 0.074 mm)
(per-cent passing %)
constant 5.5
V
a
void content (%) constant 5.0
V
beff
binder content (% by volume) constant 10.0
f frequency (Hz) constant 10.0 AGPT, T233 (4PB)
Binder type C320 N/A MRTS 30
1

C600 N/A
Temperature (C) Normal distribution, Brisbane
and Canberra, hot season
200 mm
Pavement temperature
profile measurement,
1970s
Normal distribution, Brisbane
and Canberra cold season
200 mm
Pavement temperature
profile measurement,
1970s
log viscosity (10^6 Poise) Normal distribution through
temperature value
Standard laboratory
testing; refer to Table 2
Stiffness-WPE (MPa) Variable WPE
Note 1: Department of Transport and Main Roads (2010).

As described in Equation 2, the stiffness prediction greatly depends on the viscosity and
indirectly on the temperature. Two common types of bitumen, namely C320 and C600 were
tested, and viscosity values were measured at 25, 45, 60 and 135 C, and these two binder
types were taken into consideration in the MCS. Regression analysis was performed and the
temperature dependency of the viscosity can be described by the equations provided in Table 2.
It should be noted that based on production control data, probability mass functions could be
developed for bitumen viscosity which could be applied in a detailed analysis. In this study no
data was available to develop such probability mass functions for bitumen viscosity. Therefore
deterministic viscosity values obtained from laboratory testing performed by ARRB were used in
the calculations. Viscosity was measured at 25, 45, 60 and 135 C; the correlation equations are
provided in Table 2, where represents the bitumen viscosity in Pa.s and T is the actual
temperature in C. The correlation equations in Table 2 were applied in the analysis.
Table 2: Viscosity model equations adopted in the WPE calculation
Binder type Equation R
2

C320 = 1E+17 * T
-8.151
R = 0.9977
C600 = 4E+17 * T
-8.347
R = 0.9982

25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 10
It should be noted that it is unlikely that the pavement temperature has a normal distribution and
the pavement temperature profile is likely to be described by lognormal distribution as shown in
Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4. In order to show the impact of the temperature distribution on
the asphalt stiffness in the Australian climate, the data reported by Dickinson (1981) was chosen
as described in Table 3. In the series of pavement temperature measurement reports (Dickinson
1981) mean and standard deviation values were only provided for two locations, namely
Brisbane and Canberra. Unfortunately the analysis provided mean and standard deviation
values only for the hot season and the cold season and not for the whole year. Although the
reports provided pavement temperature mean and standard deviation values for the surface,
50 mm, 100 mm and 200 mm depth it was decided to run the calculations only for 200 mm
depth. For the demonstration the same DG20 asphalt was utilised for the Canberra region.
Table 3: Temperature distribution parameters, based on real measurement
Pavement profile Brisbane Brisbane Canberra Canberra
Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev.
Mean maximum temperature, hot
season, 200 mm deep (C)
43.2 3.4 34.6 3.1
Mean minimum temperature, cold
season, 200 mm deep (C)
19.4 1.4 7.8 1.9

Oracle Crystal Ball, Fusion edition (2011) was used for performing the MCS. Oracle Crystal Ball
is auxiliary software running under the framework of MS Excel. It was decided to run 100,000
calculations in each simulation, which approximately took 1 minute for each run. The predicted
asphalt stiffness values for the hot season are summarised in Figure 5 and for the cold season
in Figure 6 based on the Witczak equation (Equation 2) and the inputs presented in Table 1,
Table 2 and Table 3.

Figure 5: Asphalt stiffness distribution at 200 mm depth in the pavement, Brisbane and
Canberra climate, based on hot season values
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

d
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

o
f

1
0
0
,
0
0
0

p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n

(
%
)
Stiffness (MPa)
DG20 C320 Brisbane hot
season 200 mm
DG20 C600 Brisbane hot
season 200 mm
DG20 C320 Canberra
hot season 200 mm
DG20 C600 Canberra
hot season 200 mm
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 11

Figure 6: Asphalt stiffness distribution at 200 mm depth in the pavement, Brisbane and
Canberra climate, based on cold season values
For comparison Table 4 summarises the calculated stiffness values at WMAPT for the Brisbane
region and Canberra based on the Witczak equation (Equation 2) and the inputs presented in
Table 1 and Table 2. The WMAPT values are determined according to Austroads 2012.
Table 4: Calculated stiffness at WMAPT temperature using different binder types
Location Brisbane
region
Canberra
WMAPT (C) 32.0 23.0
Calculated stiffness at WMAPT temperature using
C320 binder (MPa)
2,685 5,951
Calculated stiffness at WMAPT temperature using
C600 binder (MPa)
3,364 7,234

The stiffness of the top asphalt layer ranges between approximately 500 MPa and 20,000 MPa
for the Brisbane region and it lies approximately between 1,000 MPa and 30,000 MPa for the
Canberra region. The stiffness of the asphalt layer derived from the WMAPT provides a single
value, which is rather closer to the lower boundaries. It can also be seen that in the same
climatic region the stiffness is higher for the lower layers. This difference may provide input to an
improved pavement design, where the higher stiffness values of the lower layers could be taken
into account, resulting in a more realistic pavement modelling.
Unfortunately, without a continuous pavement temperature profile, a reliable assumption cannot
be made for the stiffness distribution in each layer within the pavement structure. Figure 5 and
Figure 6 give a good indication of the achievable minimum and maximum stiffness within the
pavement structure, but cannot replicate the real stiffness distribution over a full year cycle. As it
can be seen on Figure 5 and Figure 6, the stiffness distribution for the entire year would be
more desirable, since there is a wide gap between these minimum and maximum values, and
there is still a lack of knowledge of what is the real stiffness distribution throughout the year. The
accuracy of the stiffness prediction provided in Figure 5 and Figure 6 is influenced therefore by
the input temperature values, and it is most likely that these results define the upper and lower
boundaries of the real stiffness distribution, providing the relative distribution of minimum and
maximum values, but do not provide the real distribution for the entire population.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

d
i
s
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r
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b
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t
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o
n

o
f

1
0
0
,
0
0
0

p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n

(
%
)
Stiffness (MPa)
DG20 C320
Brisbane cold
season 200
mm
DG20 C600
Brisbane cold
season 200
mm
DG20 C320
Canberra cold
season 200
mm
DG20 C600
Canberra cold
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mm
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25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 14
Using Equation 4, pavement temperature was predicted at 16 cm depth for the Melbourne area,
based on air temperature and solar radiation data from 2008. The asphalt stiffness distribution
could be predicted only for the Melbourne area, since this is the only location where all the
necessary data (air temperature, global radiation, regression coefficients) are available (Table
4). The R
2
value of the model provided in Equation 4 ranges from 0.924 to 0.975.
I
p
= p
1
+ (p
2
I
u5
+p
3

5
2
) +E(p
4
I
u
+ p
5
) +(p
6
E +p
7
E
2
+ p
8
E
3
) (4)
where
T
p
= pavement temperature at H cm, C
T
a
= air temperature at this time, C
Q = solar radiation at this time, kW/m
2

T
a5
= average air temperature for previous 5 hours, C
Q
5
= average solar radiation for previous 5 hours, kW/m
2

H = predicted depth, cm
p
1
- p
8
= regression coefficients for the prediction model, depending on the
location (latitude).

Table 5: Summary of the available air temperature, solar radiation and regression
coefficients
Location BOM
Site
No.
Latitude 10 minutes
air
temperature
data
30 minutes
solar radiation
data
Equivalent location (based
on latitude)
2008

2010
2008
2009
2010
Latitude Location
Darwin 014015 S 12
Data
available
Data available Coefficients not available
Brisbane 040913 S 27 Data not
available
Coefficients not available
Perth 009021 S 31 Data not
available
N 31 Shanghai
Sydney 066195 S 33 Data not
available
Coefficients not available
Adelaide 023034 S 34 Data available Coefficients not available
Melbourne 086282 S 37 Data available N 37 Tangshan
Hobart 094008 S 42 Data not
available
N 43 Urumqi

Although in Victoria dense graded asphalt mixes have different properties as provided in Table
1, for this analysis the same dense graded asphalt type (DG20) was used as in the previous
analysis provided in this paper. This approach allows keeping this demonstration simple.
Asphalt stiffness distribution was calculated based on the predicted pavement temperature at 16
cm depth and the results are summarised in Figure 11. It should be noted that the predicted
asphalt stiffness values are not validated, but they are in the expected range.
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 15

Figure 11: Asphalt stiffness at 16 cm from predicted pavement temperature, based on air
temperature and global radiation data from 2008 in Melbourne
Summary and opportunities for further research
The aim of this paper was to assess the impact of temperature distribution within the pavement
structure on asphalt stiffness variation. The real asphalt performance is influenced by variation
in the mix composition and temperature at the same time. However, this study focused primarily
on the influences of the pavement temperature and considered that the mix composition was
constant. This was necessary to avoid the overshadowing effect of the variation of the physical
properties.
The results provided in the paper highlight the importance of the careful material selection in
pavement design and construction. In order to assess the impact of temperature variation in the
Australian climate, detailed pavement temperature measurement would be necessary. Based on
such a comprehensive temperature record, the performance assessment of HMA in different
climatic conditions would be relatively simple through the use of MCS. However, no such data
for Australia was identified for this study.
This paper highlighted that a relatively simple model can be developed for locations at different
latitudes to predict pavement temperature at different depths. The model would be based on air
temperature and solar radiation readings. In Australia the Bureau of Meteorology provides
global solar radiation and air temperature data. A relatively inexpensive option for Australia
would be to set up three measurement stations, one each in Darwin (S12), Brisbane (S27) and
Melbourne (S37) and record the pavement temperature profiles throughout a calendar year.
Based on the measured temperature the prediction model referenced in this paper could be
improved and validated. Such an improved and validated model would deliver pavement
temperature profiles throughout Australia at very low costs for any sites where detailed air
temperatures and solar radiation data are available. Consequently, more realistic pavement
modelling would be possible.
The probability mass functions shown in the paper also highlight that there might be an
underestimate in the asphalt pavement capacity, if the pavement design is based on minimum
achievable asphalt stiffness values derived from WMAPT.
The MCS is an outstanding tool in assessing the impact of the variation in the asphalt
production as well. It is possible to include all the different variables which have an impact on
the asphalt stiffness. In this study the physical properties of the asphalt mix were kept constant
through the simulations in order to be able to assess the temperature impact on the stiffness
distribution. It would be also possible to keep the temperature value constant and include the
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e

d
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

o
f

1
0
0
,
0
0
0

p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n

(
%
)
Stiffness (MPa)
DG20 C320 Melbourne 16 cm,
predicted (not validated)
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 16
variation of the grading, binder content and air void content. Based on the analysis of historical
data it is possible to derive the real distribution of each asphalt property and assess the impact
of the production variation on the asphalt performance through the WPE. Based on historical
data analysis, the impact of the production variability could be checked for asphalt mixes
produced in Australia. This would open opportunities to focus on the most important parameters,
which influence most of the asphalt mechanical properties.
The paramount advantage of combining the WPE calculation in MCS is that a desktop analysis
could be performed in a relatively simple way for the environmental impact on the asphalt
stiffness change. The hardening effect could be easily included in the WPE approach by
adjusting the viscosity change of the binder due to environmental effects. This analysis would
provide a comprehensive understanding of the asphalt material performance under in-service
conditions.
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Jameson, AGPT02/12, Austroads, Sydney, NSW
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Petho, L. (2008), Influence of temperature distribution on the design of pavement structures,
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AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES
Laszlo Petho is a graduate of the University of Technology, Budapest (BME) earning his PhD in
pavement design and asphalt technology. After five years experience in road construction and
quality control he worked as a researcher and lecturer at the Department of Highway and
Railway Engineering of the BME. He conducted research projects on developing high
performance asphalt mixes for heavy duty pavements and performance-based asphalt mix
characterisation for pavement design purposes. He gained experience in detailed pavement
design, pavement performance assessment and in situ and laboratory material testing. Laszlo is
a Chartered Professional Engineer of Engineers Australia, Active Member of the Association of
Asphalt Paving Technologists (AAPT), and the International Society for Asphalt Pavements
(ISAP). He is currently the technical project leader for Austroads Asphalt properties and mix
design procedures project.
25th ARRB Conference Shaping the future: Linking policy, research and outcomes, Perth, Australia 2012
ARRB Group Ltd and Authors 2012 18
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