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China Property Watch: Sales And Prices Are Likely To Moderate This Year With Tighter Financing
Primary Credit Analyst: Matthew Kong, Hong Kong (852) 2533-3595; matthew.kong@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contacts: Bei Fu, Hong Kong (852) 2533-3512; bei.fu@standardandpoors.com Christopher Lee, Hong Kong (852) 2533-3562; christopher.k.lee@standardandpoors.com Laura C Li, CFA, Beijing (86) 10-6569-2930; laura.li@standardandpoors.com Dennis Lee, Hong Kong (852)2533-3563; dennis.lee@standardandpoors.com
Table Of Contents
Contracted Sales Update And Outlook Tighter Financing Conditions Likely Aggressive Land Acquisitions Policy Fine-Tuning Expected To Remain Appendix
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(Editor's Note: This is the first of a quarterly series on Chinese property developers.) Chinese property developers struck while the iron was hot and reaped rewards. Most of the Chinese developers Standard & Poor's Ratings Services rate posted record-high contracted sales in 2013, benefiting from a largely stable regulatory environment and robust demand, especially in tier-1 and tier-2 cities. The companies also took advantage of favorable financing conditions to issue bonds; many were new bond issuers. With the proceeds, the Chinese developers refinanced loans and bought a large amount of land for replenishment and expansion. However, we expect sales and property prices to grow more moderately this year due to uncertainties in financing conditions and economic prospects. Developers took advantage of the market opportunities in January and February to secure funding. On the other hand, we believe leverage will rise in the next 12 months for some developers, as a result of this round of aggressive land acquisitions. We also expect large construction outlays to help the developers meet ambitious annual sales targets. Standard & Poor's ratings on these developers may face downward pressure as their debt increases may have outpaced property sales growth. Nonetheless, we believe the ratings in the sector will largely remain stable.
Contracted Sales Update And Outlook

After a strong 2013 for Chinese developers, with record-high contracted sales, we expect sales to ease this year. We are uncertain if the developers will meet their sales targets this year because onshore financing conditions may change. If financing conditions tighten sharply, mortgage and developers' funding could be severely affected. In 2013, new home sales in China rose 27% to Chinese renminbi (RMB) 6.8 trillion, driven by an 18% increase in volume and 8% growth in average selling price (ASP), according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Contracted sales in our rated companies on aggregate rose 33%, higher than the nationwide sales growth. Most of the companies we rate exceeded their 2013 sales targets. Sales for Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., China Aoyuan Property Group Ltd., Yuzhou Properties Co. Ltd., China SCE Property Holdings Ltd., Sunac China Holdings Ltd., CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd., and Greenland Holding Group Co. Ltd. all increased more than 50%.
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Chart 1
ASP in the top 100 cities rose 11.5% in 2013. Average price growth in top-tier cities was higher than that for the overall market (see chart 2). Prices in the tier-1 cities of Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen soared more than 24% in 2013. Home prices continued rising in January 2014 although there were signs of easing because of new measures implemented on financing and purchase restrictions in some markets since the fourth quarter of 2013 and the traditional slowdown before Chinese New Year for China's property market. The property price index for the top 100 cities rose 0.63% month on month in January 2014, 7 basis points (bps) slower than in December 2013. This represents the 20th month of consecutive property price increases in China. Also, the year-on-year price increase for the top 100 cities was 11.1% in January, 41 bps slower than in December.
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Chart 2
Our base-case scenario for 2014 is 5% growth in ASP and 10% rise in sales volume for Chinese developers. Demand--stemming from urbanization and rising disposable income--should continue to support volumes and modest price growth. However, we expect increasing volatility in the Chinese property market into 2014. The growth in sales and pricing will be constrained because of easing economic growth prospects, tightened local-government regulations, and an uncertain financing environment in 2014. Any adverse news could weaken the property market sentiment.
Tighter Financing Conditions Likely

Listed Chinese developers may face a contraction in funding channels and higher funding cost. The new Chinese leadership has shown signs that it will be more restrained in pumping liquidity into the banking system. Commercial banks may slow down domestic mortgage lending or request higher premium on project loans as China curbs credit growth and shadow banking. We expect average domestic funding cost in 2014 to be higher than in 2013 amid rising bank deposit rates. Furthermore, the strong financing needs of a few weak industries may cause a shortage of funds or raise interest rates.
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Chart 3
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Chart 4
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Chart 5
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Chart 6
Many property developers have raised funds for refinancing and working capital. In January and February 2014, developers issued US$7.15 billion and RMB6.8 billion, respectively, in offshore bonds to bolster their liquidity and funding buffer. This follows a record year for new bond issuance in 2013. The market may hold uncertainties because of the U.S. Federal Reserve's reduction in its bond buyback program, often called tapering. Chinese developers are issuing bonds in anticipation of the market turning volatile if the Fed's tapering is more aggressive than expected. Bond issues in 2014 are showing a mixed trend in their coupon rates. The coupon rates of most bonds in the 'B' category declined (except KWG Property Holding Ltd.'s), mainly owing to stabilized credit profiles and improving track record. In the 'BB' category or above, the coupon rates for many bonds spiked, e.g., Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. Ltd., Greenland, and Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. This reflects a lower risk appetite in the China debt capital market as the U.S. Fed's tapering caused capital outflows to increase from high-yield bond markets. Comparing the tenors for bond issues in 2014 with those in 2013, the companies selling bonds with shorter tenors (seven issues) this year outnumber those with longer tenors (four issues). For this comparison, we view the first call date of perpetual securities as the effective maturity date. Convertible bonds are excluded from this comparison.
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Table 1
Coupon Rates Of Bond Issues In 2014 Versus Previous Issuance

2014 issuance Company Agile Amount (mil.) US$500 RMB2,000 Aoyuan Beijing Capital Land US$300 RMB2,000 RMB250 CIFI COGO CR Land US$200 US$400 US$400 US$700 CSC Fantasia Gemdale Greenland HK Greentown Kaisa KWG R&F Shimao Wanda Wuzhou Yuzhou US$400 US$300 RMB1,050 RMB1,500 US$500 US$250 US$600 US$1,000 US$600 US$600 US$100 US$300 Tenor 5 3 5 3 5 5 5 5 10 5 5 3 4 Perpetual 4 5 5 7 10 4 5 Coupon rate (%) 8.375 6.5 11.25 5.75 6.875 8.875 5.125 4.375 6 8.25 10.625 6.5 5.5 9 8.875 8.975 8.5 8.125 7.25 13.75 8.625 HK$975 US$250 RMB2,000 US$700 US$300 RMB1,800 US$300 US$400 US$800 US$600 US$100 US$300 5 7 5 3 6 3 7 7 7 5 6 5 6.5 10.75 5.625 4.75 8 6.875 8.625 8.75 6.625 4.875 13.75 8.75 US$225 HK$2,200* US$750 5 5 5 12.25 2 4.625 US$100 USD400 4 Perpetual 13.875 8.375 Previous issuance Amount (mil.) Tenor Coupon rate (%) 8.25
US$700 Perpetual
RMB--Chinese renminbi. HK$--Hong Kong dollar. *Convertible bond. Coupon rate before step-up. Source: Standard & Poor's.
The financing conditions for developers may vary. With the country's strengthening regulations on shadow banking and tightening credit in banking system, developers with maturing trust loans will find it harder to refinance using the same method. Large developers generally have more financial flexibility than smaller ones. We believe refinancing risk should be manageable for bonds due 2014. Among outstanding bonds, Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd. and Country Garden should be able to either refinance or use their cash to pay off their debts, given their healthy sales and balance sheets. We expect the parent company of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd. (SIUD) to step in as a last resort if it exhausts other refinancing channels. The refinancing of China Properties Group Ltd.'s (CPG) US$103 million in outstanding bonds faces slightly higher uncertainty, however, given the company's poor sales; but we believe its good quality assets and the controlling shareholder's track record in providing support alleviate the risk somewhat.
Table 2
List Of Credits With Bond Maturities Within 12 Months

Issuer Evergrande* Road King* Powerlong R&F* Amount (mil.) RMB5,550 RMB1,272 RMB750 RMB2,612 Coupon rate (%) 7.5 6 11.5 7 Maturity month Bond type Jan Synthetics Feb Offshore renminbi bonds (CNH) Mar Synthetics Apr Offshore renminbi bonds (CNH)
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Table 2
List Of Credits With Bond Maturities Within 12 Months (cont.)

Lai Fung* Agile* CPG SOHO SIUD Country Garden US$185 US$500 US$103 HK$2,357 US$400 US$375 9.125 4 9.125 3.75 9.75 11.75 Apr Senior unsecured Apr Convertible May Senior unsecured Jul Convertible Jul Senior unsecured Sep Senior unsecured
*Refinanced. --Redeemed early. RMB--Chinese renminbi. HK$--Hong Kong dollar. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Aggressive Land Acquisitions

We believe competition for land will remain fierce. In our view, the Chinese land market in tier-1 cities overheated. Many land parcels were sold at record prices. Land sales in 300 cities rose 50% to RMB3.1 trillion in 2013, according to China Real Estate Index System (CREIS) data. Land cost on average rose 24% in 2013, according to CREIS. Construction cost has also been increasing.
Table 3
Top 5 Land Acquisitions By Total Price And Average Price In 2013

Company Top 5 by total cost Sun Hung Kai Properties CR Land Sunac Yuexiu Property Excellence Group Top 5 by average cost Sunac/Henderson Evergrande Jiangsu Wuzhong Economic and Technological Development Corporation Wing Tai Holdings K.Wah International sqm--square meter. Source: Soufun. Beijing Beijing Suzhou Chaoyang Chaoyang Wuzhong Residential Residential Commercial 2,100 5,135 555 73,099 55,000 51,046 16% 30% 410% Shanghai Shenzhen Tianjin Wuhan Shenzhen Xujiahui Qianhai Nankai Jianghan Qianhai Commercial Commercial Residential, Commercial Residential, Commercial Commercial 21,770 10,900 10,320 9,010 7,810 37,264 13,360 10,109 12,617 20,300 24% 62% 12% 29% 50% City District Project type Total cost (RMB million) Average cost (RMB/sqm) Premium over base price
Shanghai Shanghai
Huangpu Pudong
Commercial Residential
1,104 568
42,821 40,106
48% 63%
Most of the companies we rate have devoted a larger proportion of cash proceeds from contracted sales to land acquisitions in 2013. Developers acquired land more aggressively in 2013 than we had expected to increase their scale. Some aggressive developers, such as Evergrande and Sunac, are vulnerable to a sudden decline in the property market due to their large commitments for land acquisitions and high land cost on certain projects. Because of rising land costs and competition, profitability will likely be compressed in the next 18-24 months. Most developers' margins in contracted sales rebounded in 2013 owing to better pricing and historically low land costs, but we believe further improvement may be limited because of (1) a shift toward the mass-market segment, where
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margins are thinner; (2) continued aggressive pricing to generate cash flow; and (3) increasing land and construction costs.
Chart 7
Policy Fine-Tuning Expected To Remain

We expect China's housing policy to remain relatively unchanged in 2014. The central government is likely to continue experimenting with market-based measures such as property tax and increasing the housing supply to control overheating in selective markets. However, the government is unlikely to roll out severe measures to suppress demand. Some cities have restricted the purchase of a second home and reduced mortgage financing. We expect these measures to remain; the government may take further steps to cool the market if prices continue to rise sharply across the country. We believe the government's adoption of market-oriented policies will bear fruit in the long term. Increased land supply and development of public housing would reduce demand pressure due to increasing urbanization. Some local Chinese governments have increased supply of housing to cool soaring property prices. For instance, the Beijing government announced in January 2014 that 30% of new land supply in 2014 will be normal "commodity housing" (private housing at market price) and 70% will be for social housing (subsidized housing for low-income families) and "self-use" commodity housing. In our view, such measures are unlikely to control prices in the short term but will accommodate popular demand
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for improved and better housing for low-income families.

Table 4
Key Property Policy Updates

Issuing authorities Central governments Policies National "Five Rules" and long-term property market regulations 3rd plenum policy Details Property price control; property tax pilot expansion; national network of personal housing information and completing uniform property registration system Allow collectively owned rural land designated for construction to be put on sale. Such land will have the same rights and prices as state-owned land. This will increase land supply. Downpayments for second home raised further; mostly to 70% from 60%. Some cities stopped offering mortgage loans for purchasinge a third home or above. Purchase restrictions further tightened for non-local households; non-local buyers need to provide longer records of individual income tax or social security payments to qualify for home purchases. 70,000 units of self-use commodity homes to be rolled out in two years with ASP 30% below market rate; resale not allowed in the first five years Coverage Nationwide
Central governments
Nationwide
Local governments/banks
Tightened mortgage availability
A number of tier 1-2 cities, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Xiamen A number of tier 1-2 cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Shenyang, Nanchang, Fuzhou, and Taiyuan Beijing
Local governments
Home purchase restrictions
Beijing
On self-use commodity homes
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Appendix
Table 5
Bond Issues In 2013 For Companies Rated By Standard & Poor's

Issuer Central China Real Estate Ltd. Central China Real Estate Ltd. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. China Properties Group Ltd. CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. Famous Commercial Ltd. (Gemdale)* Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. Franshion Properties (China) Ltd. Future Land Development Holdings Ltd. Future Land Development Holdings Ltd. Currency USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD RMB USD RMB USD USD RMB Sale/Original Amount (million) 200 400 500 500 500 250 500 750 750 1,500 2,000 250 1,000 300 200 1,500 Coupon Final Maturity (%) Date 8 1/28/2020 6.5 6/4/2018 3.375 10/29/2018 5.375 10/29/2023 6.375 10/29/2043 13.5 10/16/2018 12.25 4/15/2018 7.5 1/10/2023 7.25 4/4/2021 8.75 10/30/2018 5.625 3/21/2018 10.75 1/22/2020 7.875 5/27/2016 5.375 10/17/2018 10.25 1/31/2018 9.75 4/25/2016 Issue Rating BBBBBBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BB BBBBBBBBB+ B+ BBBB+ B+
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Table 5
Bond Issues In 2013 For Companies Rated By Standard & Poor's (cont.)
Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. Golden Wheel Tiandi Holdings Co. Ltd. Greenland Hong Kong Holdings Ltd. (Greenland Group)* Greentown China Holdings Ltd. Greentown China Holdings Ltd. Greentown China Holdings Ltd. Hengli (Hong Kong) Real Estate Ltd. (Poly Real Estate)* Hopson Development Holdings Ltd. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. KWG Property Holding Ltd. Lai Fung Holdings Ltd. Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. Mingfa Group (International) Co. Ltd. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd. R&F Properties (HK) Co. Ltd. (Guangzhou R&F)* Road King Infrastructure Ltd. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. Sunac China Holdings Ltd. Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co. Ltd. (China Vanke)* Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co. Ltd. (China Vanke)* Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co. Ltd. (China Vanke)* Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) Co. Ltd. (Dalian Wanda)* Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd. Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd. Yanlord Land Group Ltd. Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust Yuzhou Properties Co. Ltd. *The companies in brackets refer to their parents. USD RMB USD USD RMB USD USD USD USD USD RMB USD RMB USD USD USD RMB USD RMB USD USD USD RMB RMB USD USD USD RMB USD USD 400 600 700 700 2,500 300 500 300 500 800 1,800 300 1,800 500 100 250 800 600 2,200 800 500 800 1,000 1,000 600 200 200 2,000 350 300 13.25 3/4/2018 11.25 4/25/2016 4.75 10/18/2016 8.5 2/4/2018 5.625 5/13/2016 8 3/24/2019 4.5 8/6/2018 9.875 1/16/2018 10.25 1/8/2020 8.875 3/19/2018 6.875 4/22/2016 8.625 2/5/2020 6.875 4/25/2018 6.75 1/29/2023 13.25 2/1/2018 11.25 1/25/2018 9.5 5/27/2016 8.75 1/24/2020 6 12/3/2016 6.625 1/14/2020 9.375 4/5/2018 2.625 3/13/2018 4.5 12/4/2018 4.05 12/16/2016 4.875 11/21/2018 13.25 5/3/2018 13 6/6/2019 5.375 5/23/2016 3.1 4/3/2018 8.75 10/4/2018 CCC+ B BB+ B+ B+ B+ BBBCCC+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ BB BBBBBBBBBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBBB+ B+ BBBBB B
Table 6
2014 Year-To-Date Bond Issues For Companies Rated By Standard & Poor's
Issuer Agile Property Holdings Ltd. Agile Property Holdings Ltd. Currency USD RMB Sale/Original Amount (million) 500 2,000 Final Maturity Coupon (%) Date 8.375 2/18/2019 6.5 2/28/2017 Issue Rating BBBB-
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Table 6
2014 Year-To-Date Bond Issues For Companies Rated By Standard & Poor's (cont.)
China Aoyuan Property Group Ltd. China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Ltd. China South City Holdings Ltd. CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. Famous Commercial Ltd. (Gemdale)* Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. KWG Property Holding Ltd. R&F Properties (HK) Co. Ltd. (Guangzhou R&F)* Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) Co. Ltd. (Dalian Wanda)* Yuzhou Properties Co. Ltd. USD USD USD USD RMB USD USD USD USD USD USD 300 400 400 200 1,050 300 600 1,000 600 600 300 11.25 1/17/2019 5.125 1/23/2019 8.25 1/29/2019 8.875 1/27/2019 6.5 3/4/2017 10.625 1/23/2019 8.975 1/14/2019 8.5 10/1/2019 8.125 1/22/2021 7.25 1/29/2024 8.625 1/24/2019 BBBBB B BBB+ B+ BBBBBBBB
*The companies in brackets refer to their parents.
Table 7
Rating List
Issuer Name Agile Property Holdings Ltd. Central China Real Estate Ltd. China Aoyuan Property Group Ltd. China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Ltd. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. China Properties Group Ltd. China Resources Land Ltd. China SCE Property Holdings Ltd. China South City Holdings Ltd. China Vanke Co. Ltd. CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. Coastal Greenland Ltd. Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. Ltd. Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. Famous Commercial Ltd. Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. Franshion Properties (China) Ltd. Future Land Development Holdings Ltd. Gemdale Corp. Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. Golden Wheel Tiandi Holdings Co. Ltd. Greenland Holding Group Co. Ltd. Greenland Hong Kong Holdings Ltd. Greentown China Holdings Ltd. Issuer Credit Rating (as of March 3, 2014) CreditWatch/Outlook BB BBB BBBBBB+ BBBB B B+ BBB+ B+ BBB BBB+ BB BB BBBBBBBBB+ BB BBB BBBBBStable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Positive Stable Stable Negative Positive Stable Watch Neg Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Negative Stable Stable Stable Stable
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Table 7
Rating List (cont.)

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd. Hengli (Hong Kong) Real Estate Ltd. Hopson Development Holdings Ltd. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. KWG Property Holding Ltd. Lai Fung Holdings Ltd. Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. Mingfa Group (International) Co. Ltd. Poly Real Estate Group Co. Ltd. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd. R&F Properties (HK) Co. Ltd. Renhe Commercial Holdings Co. Ltd. Road King Infrastructure Ltd. Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. SOHO China Ltd. Sunac China Holdings Ltd. Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) Co. Ltd. Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) Co. Ltd. Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd. Yanlord Land Group Ltd. Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust Yuzhou Properties Co. Ltd. Zhong An Real Estate Ltd. BB BBB BB+ BBB+ BB+ B BBB+ B BB CCC BBBB BB BB+ BBBBB+ BBB B+ BBBBB B+ B Stable Stable Stable Stable Negative Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Negative Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Negative
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Chart 8
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Chart 9
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China Property Watch: Sales And Prices Are Likely To Moderate This Year With Tighter Financing

Contracted Sales Update And Outlook

Tighter Financing Conditions Likely

Coupon Rates Of Bond Issues In 2014 Versus Previous Issuance

List Of Credits With Bond Maturities Within 12 Months

List Of Credits With Bond Maturities Within 12 Months (cont.)

Aggressive Land Acquisitions

Top 5 Land Acquisitions By Total Price And Average Price In 2013

Policy Fine-Tuning Expected To Remain

for improved and better housing for low-income families.

Key Property Policy Updates

Tightened mortgage availability

Home purchase restrictions

On self-use commodity homes

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Bond Issues In 2013 For Companies Rated By Standard & Poor's

*The companies in brackets refer to their parents.

Rating List (cont.)

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