You are on page 1of 6

Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report

Updated January 11, 2013

AETNA INC. (AET-N)


Insurance / Insurance / Life & Health Insurance

Verus Opinion
Buy Hold Sell

Analyst Recommendations
First Call Mean (FC):

The Verus Opinion, provided by Verus Analytics Inc, is an empirically-derived and historically back-tested stock rating system with buy, sell, and hold opinions. To develop a rating the quantitative system analyzes a firm's earnings quality, balance sheet, and income statement, conducts technical and valuation analysis and evaluates the transactions made by the company's management and directors (i.e. insiders). Verus Analytics, Inc is a private independent research firm specializing in engineering institutional rating systems.

Buy (21 firms)


FC

Sell

Reduce

Hold

Buy

Strong Buy

First Call Mean (FC) is the mean recommendation of all analysts covering the stock.

Key Information
Price (01/10/13) (USD) 52-Week High (USD) 52-Week Low (USD) Market Cap (USD) Avg Daily Vol Exchange Dividend Yield Annual Dividend (USD) Trailing PE Forward PE Forward PEG LTG Forecast Exp Report Date Annual Revenue (USD) ROE Inst. Ownership 1-Mo Return 3-Mo Return 1-Yr Return 45.76 51.14 34.58 15.2B 3.4M NEW YORK 1.8% 0.80 8.7 8.7 0.8 10.5% 01/31/13 35.3B 18.5% 94.8% 2.4% 9.2% 3.2%

1-Year Price Chart

5-Year Price Chart

Business Description
Aetna Inc. (Aetna) is a diversified healthcare benefits company. The Company offers a range of traditional and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental, behavioral health, group life and disability plans, medical management capabilities, Medicaid healthcare management services and health information exchange technology services. The Company's operations are conducted in three business segments: Health Care, Group Insurance and Large Case Pensions. Its customers include employer groups, individuals, college students, part-time and hourly workers, health plans, healthcare providers, governmental units, government-sponsored plans, labor groups and expatriates. In June 2011, it acquired Prodigy Health Group. In October 2011, the Company acquired Genworth Financial, Inc.'s Medicare Supplement business and related blocks of in-force business. In October 2011, it also acquired PayFlex Holdings, Inc.

Please refer to the last page for important disclaimer and certification information

Page 1 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report


Updated January 11, 2013 for AET

Peer Analysis
Ticker
MET PRU AFL WLP CI AET PFG LNC UNM TMK GNW Average Median

Verus Opinion
Hold Hold Hold Hold Buy Buy Buy Hold Buy Hold Buy ---

Price (12/28/12) (USD)


36.59 57.90 53.37 62.24 55.62 45.76 29.67 27.84 22.12 53.24 8.23 ---

Market Cap (USD)


39.2B 26.1B 24.4B 18.0B 15.7B 15.2B 8.6B 7.7B 6.0B 5.1B 4.1B 15.5B 15.2B

Dividend Yield
2.0% 2.8% 2.6% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 2.8% 1.7% 2.4% 1.1% -1.9% 1.9%

Trailing P/E
17.1 23.6 8.6 7.8 10.5 8.7 13.2 17.5 25.2 10.5 15.3 14.4 13.2

Forward P/E
7.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 8.8 8.7 9.5 6.4 6.9 9.7 7.2 7.9 7.8

LTG Forecast
9.0% 11.0% 10.2% 11.5% 10.1% 10.5% 11.7% 8.9% 8.1% 10.2% 16.0% 10.6% 10.2%

Annual Revenue (USD)


68.9B 50.9B 25.6B 61.6B 27.1B 35.3B 9.1B 11.3B 10.5B 3.5B 10.2B 28.5B 25.6B

Net Margin
-5.5% -4.7% 14.6% 4.5% 6.3% 5.6% 6.9% 13.5% 8.8% 14.9% 1.3% 6.0% 6.3%

1-Mo Return
10.6% 10.3% -0.4% 6.9% 5.1% 2.4% 7.0% 8.2% 5.5% 2.2% 22.5% 7.3% 6.9%

3-Mo Return
5.5% 3.3% 12.1% 1.1% 14.0% 9.2% 9.5% 15.9% 13.1% 4.7% 50.5% 12.6% 9.5%

1-Yr Return
5.9% 8.4% 21.7% -13.8% 21.8% 3.2% 14.2% 31.4% 1.3% 21.3% 13.2% 11.7% 13.2%

Peer Group
MET PRU AFL WLP CI PFG LNC UNM TMK GNW METLIFE INC PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL AFLAC WELLPOINT INC CIGNA PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP LINCOLN NATIONAL UNUM GROUP TORCHMARK GENWORTH FIN'L, INC.

Earnings Highlights
AET's current quarter consensus estimate has decreased over the past 90 days from 1.10 to 0.96, a loss of -12.8%. This trails the Life & Health Insurance Industry average of 0.0% during the same time period.

Analyst Recommendations
First Call Mean (FC):

Price Target
The chart below indicates where analysts predict the stock price will be within the next 12 months, as compared to the current price. The high, low, and mean price targets are presented.
12-Month Price Target

Buy (21 firms)


FC

Sell

Reduce

Hold

Buy

Strong Buy

60 57 54

High

Mean (USD) High (USD) Low (USD)

52.60 59.00 48.00 14.9% 15

Distribution Analysts typically rate a stock based on a five-tier scale ranging from 'Strong Buy' to 'Sell'. The chart below displays the number of analysts in each tier.
Strong Buy Buy Hold Reduce 0 Sell 0 6 7

Mean

51 48 45
45.76 Low

Target vs. Current # of Analysts

Current Price

12-Month Price Target

Mean Estimate Trend


Q 12-12 Current (USD) 0.96 0.96 1.10 -12.8% Q 03-13 1.44 1.43 1.44 -0.1% Y 2012 5.15 5.14 5.08 1.3% Y 2013 5.53 5.52 5.53 -0.1% Price Target 52.60 51.50 49.60 6.0%

30 Days Ago (USD) 90 Days Ago (USD) % Change - Last 90 Days

Next Expected Report Date: 01/31/13

Page 2 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report


Updated January 11, 2013 for AET

Earnings Per Share


Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing a company's earnings by the number of shares outstanding. Analysts tend to interpret a pattern of increasing earnings as a sign of strength and flat or falling earnings as a sign of weakness. The charts below provide a comparison between a company's actual and estimated EPS, including the high and low forecasts.

Quarterly
Actuals 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20
0.97 1.34 1.31 1.55 High Mean Low

Annual
Estimates
8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00
3.68 5.17 High Mean Low

Actuals

Estimates

1.00 0.80 12/11 03/12


Estimates FC Mean (USD) High (USD) Low (USD) # of Analysts

06/12

09/12
12-12 0.96 1.23 0.90 19

12/12
03-13 1.44 1.54 1.29 16

03/13

2010
Estimates

2011
2012 5.15 5.42 5.07 22 FC Mean (USD) High (USD) Low (USD) # of Analysts

2012
2013 5.53 5.75 5.30 21

2013

NA = No Actual or Estimated EPS

NA = No Actual or Estimated EPS

Earnings Surprise
Investors frequently compare a company's actual earnings to the mean expectation of professional analysts. The difference between the two is referred to as a "positive" or "negative" surprise. Academic research has shown that when a company reports a surprise, it is often followed by more of the same surprise type.

Surprise Summary - Last 12 Quarters


Surprise Type Positive Quarters (> 2%) Negative Quarters (< -2%) In-Line Quarters (within 2%) # 8 2 2 % 66.7% 16.7% 16.7%

Surprise Detail - Last 6 Periods


Surprise Type POSITIVE POSITIVE NEGATIVE IN-LINE POSITIVE POSITIVE Announce Date 10/25/12 07/31/12 04/26/12 02/01/12 10/27/11 07/27/11 Period End Date 09/12 06/12 03/12 12/11 09/11 06/11 Actual EPS (USD) 1.550 1.310 1.340 0.970 1.400 1.350 Mean EPS (USD) 1.338 1.247 1.402 0.975 1.148 1.079 Surprise (%) 15.8% 5.1% -4.4% -0.5% 22.0% 25.1%

Annual Revenue
A pattern of increasing sales in conjunction with a rising EPS may influence a buy recommendation, while flat or falling sales and faltering earnings may explain a sell recommendation. A rising EPS with flat or falling sales may result from increased cost efficiency and margins, rather than market expansion. This chart shows the revenue forecast trend of all analysts and the highest and lowest projections for the current and next fiscal year.
42B 40B 38B 36B
33.6B

Actuals

Estimates
High Mean Low

2012 2013 Mean (USD) 35.6B 38.7B High (USD) 35.7B 39.7B Low (USD) 35.5B 38.0B Forecasted 5.8% 15.1% Growth # of Analysts 12 13 NA = No Actual or Estimated Revenue

34B 32B 2011 2012 2013

Fundamental Highlights
Of the 29 firms within the Life & Health Insurance Industry, AETNA INC is among the 21 companies that pay a dividend. The stock's dividend yield is currently 1.8%. AETNA INC's debt-to-capital of 28.2% is substantially above the Life & Health Insurance Industry average of 18.5%. - AETNA INC's return on equity of 18.5% is substantially above the Life & Health Insurance Industry average of 5.8%.

Page 3 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report


Updated January 11, 2013 for AET

Fundamental Metrics
Profitability
Revenue Growth For year over year ending 09/12 Gross Margin For trailing 4 qtrs ending -Return on Equity For trailing 4 qtrs ending 09/12 Net Margin For trailing 4 qtrs ending 09/12
AET 4.4% Industry Avg 2.9%

Debt
Current Ratio For year over year ending -Debt-to-Capital For trailing 4 qtrs ending 12/11 Interest Funding For trailing 4 qtrs ending 09/12 Interest Coverage For trailing 4 qtrs ending --

AET --

Industry Avg 5.1

Dividend
Div. Growth Rate For year over year ending 09/12 Dividend Funding For trailing 4 qtrs ending 09/12 Dividend Coverage For trailing 4 qtrs ending -Current Div. Yield For trailing 4 qtrs ending 01/13

AET 52.2%

Industry Avg 20.0%

--

19.2%

28.2%

18.5%

19.1%

0.0%

18.5%

5.8%

19.7%

0.0

--

-0.1

5.6%

5.6%

--

-70.2

1.8%

0.0%

The time period stated applies to the company-level data only. The Industry Average is a simple average of the most recent data from companies whose businesses most closely match each other.

Risk Highlights
On days when the market is up, AET tends to lag the S&P 500 index. On days when the market is down, the stock generally performs in-line with the S&P 500 index. Over the past 90 days, the daily price fluctuations of AET have been in-line with the S&P 500 index firms. Beta vs. S&P Positive Days Only Negative Days Only Beta vs. Group Positive Days Only Negative Days Only 0.79 0.46 0.97 0.66 0.71 1.23 Correlation vs. S&P Last 90 Days Last 60 Months Correlation vs. Group Last 90 Days Last 60 Months - In both short-term and long-term periods, AET has shown high correlation (>=0.4) with the S&P 500 index. Thus, this stock would provide only low levels of diversification to a portfolio similar to the broader market.

Risk Metrics
Standard Deviation Last 90 Days Last 60 Months Intra-Day Swing Last 90 Days Avg Last 90 Days Largest 1.47 11.87 2.0% 4.3% 57% 61% 53% 74%

Price Analysis: Risk and Reward


Last 90 Days
Ticker AET S&P 500 Best Daily Return 3.3% 2.5% Worst Daily Return -4.2% -2.4% # Days Up 30 32 # Days Down 31 28 Largest Intra-Day Swing 4.3% 2.9%

Last 60 Months
Best Monthly Return 44.2% 10.8% Worst Monthly Return -31.1% -16.9% Average January Return 0.6% -1.2%

Last 10 Years
Average February Return 3.0% -0.1% Average March Return 3.5% 1.3%

Price Performance
Daily closing pricing data is used to calculate the price performance of a stock over five periods. The performance of the S&P 500 is also displayed as a means of comparison.
1 Week 1.1% 0.9% 2.4% 3.8% 9.2% 2.8% -1.2% 3.2% 3.2% 13.9%

AET (USD) Close Price (01/10/13) 52-Week High 52-Week Low 45.76 51.14 34.58

S&P 500 1472 1472 1278

1 Month

3 Month

AET S&P 500

YTD

- On 01/10/13, AET closed at 45.76, 10.5% below its 52-week high and 32.3% above its 52-week low. - AET shares are currently trading 3.5% above their 50-day moving average of 44.20, and 9.5% above their 200-day moving average of 41.80. - The S&P 500 is currently trading at its 52-week high of 1472. Relative Strength Indicator (scale 1-100, 100 being best)
Last 1 Month Last 3 Months Last 6 Months 55 55 52

1 Year

Page 4 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report


Updated January 11, 2013 for AET

Valuation Multiples
AET S&P 500 Company Relative to Its 5-Yr Average Company Relative to S&P 500 Trailing P/E 8.7 23.1 9% Discount 62% Discount Forward P/E 8.7 17.4 7% Discount 50% Discount Forward PEG 0.8 1.8 24% Discount 54% Discount

Trailing PE
Trailing P/E is calculated using the most recent closing price (updated weekly) divided by the sum of the four most recently reported quarterly earnings.

Forward PE
Forward P/E is calculated using the most recent closing price (updated weekly) divided by the sum of the four upcoming quarterly consensus estimates.

Forward PEG
Forward PEG is calculated by dividing the Forward P/E by the five-year, long term forecasted growth rate.

Insider Purchases and Sells


Name Coye, Molly Joel Ludwig, Edward J Bertolini, Mark T Parmeswar, Rajan Casazza, William James Role Director Director CEO Officer Gen Counsel Tran Date 12/21/12-12/21/12 12/20/12-12/20/12 12/20/12-12/20/12 12/13/12-12/13/12 12/13/12-12/14/12

(Most recent transactions within the past 90 days)

Tran Type Sale Sale Sale Sale Sale

Shares 2,135 14,000 112,000 7,900 86,359

Seasonal Sells - Quarterly & Yearly


Time-series data for each quarter over the past three years allows you to easily analyze the longer-term trend in open-market insider selling. Q1 (USD) 0 4.82M 1.35M 0 Q2 (USD) -0.47M 2.32M 0 Q3 (USD) -0.25M 0.05M 0.78M Q4 (USD) -16.4M 8.68M 6,204 Full Year (USD) 0 21.9M 12.4M 0.78M

Seasonal Buys - Quarterly & Yearly


Time-series data for each quarter over the past three years allows you to easily analyze the longer-term trend in open-market insider buying. Q1 (USD) 0 0 0 0 Q2 (USD) -0 0 0 Q3 (USD) -0 0.10M 0 Q4 (USD) -0 0 0 Full Year (USD) 0 0 0.10M 0

2013 2012 2011 2010

2013 2012 2011 2010

Institutional Holders

(Updated weekly as of 01/05/13)

Top Executive Holders

(Updated monthly as of 12/16/12)

The top five institutional holders are presented based on the total number of shared held. Institution State Street Global Advisor... Vanguard Group, Inc. Barclays Global Investors, ... Wellington Management Compa... Janus Capital Management LLC Inst. Type Inv Mgmt Inv Mgmt Inv Mgmt Inv Mgmt Inv Mgmt # Shares Held 23.6M 14.8M 11.9M 9.22M 8.85M Reported Date 09/30/12 09/30/12 09/30/12 09/30/12 09/30/12

The top five insider holders are presented based on the total number of direct holdings. Indirect holdings are excluded. *Please see last page for role code legend. Insider Name Bertolini, Mark T Zubretsky, Joseph M Mccarthy, Margaret M Casazza, William James Cohen, Betsy Z * Role CEO CFO O GC D # Direct Shares 0.51M 0.34M 0.12M 94,609 71,484 Value (USD) 23.4M 15.5M 5.60M 4.31M 3.26M Reported Date 12/07/12 12/07/12 12/11/12 12/11/12 10/02/12

Page 5 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report


Updated January 11, 2013 for AET

Distribution of Investment Ratings


As of 01/04/2013, Verus Analytics covered 4354 companies, with 18.5% rated Buy, 64.6% rated Hold, and 16.9% rated Sell. Verus Analytics does not engage in investment banking services.

Investment Methodology
Verus Analytics, Inc (Verus) is a private firm specializing in engineering rating systems for institutional clients, wealth managers and self-directed investors. Verus's exhaustive list of ratings include MSN Money's StockScouter, and numerous institutional stock rating systems. Verus also provides proprietary ratings of earnings quality, fundamental and valuation elements directly to institutional clients. Verus (previously Camelback Research Alliance, Inc and the quantitative business unit of Gradient Analytics, Inc) was founded in 1996 by two former tenured professors, Dr. Carr Bettis and Dr. Donn Vickrey. Today the core team consists of financial engineers, business analysts and technology personnel. The Verus Opinion is an empirically-derived and historically backtested stock rating system with buy, sell and hold opinions. To develop a rating, the quantitative system analyzes a firm's earnings quality, balance sheet, and income statement, conducts technical and valuation analysis, and evaluates the transactions made by the company's management and directors (i.e. insiders).

Disclaimer
All information in this report is assumed to be accurate to the best of our ability. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The information contained in this report is not to be construed as advice and should not be confused as any sort of advice. Thomson Reuters, its employees, officers or affiliates, in some instances, have long or short positions or holdings in the securities or other related investments of companies mentioned herein. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Role Legend
AF B CB CEO CFO CM CO Affiliate Benef Owner Chairman CEO CFO Committee Member COO CT D EVP GC O OH P CTO Director Exec VP Gen Counsel Officer Other President R SH SVP T TR VC VP Retired Shareholder Sr VP Trustee Treasurer Vice Chairman VP

Page 6 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.