TO: FROM:

Citizens United Political Victory Fund Kellyanne Conway the polling company, inc. March 3, 2013 Analysis: Statewide Survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Minnesota

DATE: RE:

The race for the Republican nomination to challenge first-term Senator Al Franken (D-MN) is wide open. At 52% undecided, likely Republican primary voters have a long way to go before they settle on a candidate. Only one of the seven candidates tested in head-to-head balloting cracks double digits. That is State Senator Julianne Ortman, who claims 16% of the vote, twice the take of her two closest competitors, businessman Mike McFadden and Jim Abeler, each of whom received 8%. Ortman is both better known and better liked among the primary electorate than McFadden.

ORTMAN IS THE EARLY FRONT-RUNNER, DESPITE HIGH UNDECIDEDS

2014 REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY BALLOT All Voters 16% 8% 8% 4% 1% 1% * 52%

Julianne Ortman Jim Abeler Mike McFadden Chris Dahlberg Monti Moreno Harold Shudlick Phillip Parrish Undecided

Looking at key demographic differences: Ortman leads McFadden and Abeler among both genders and all age groups Ortman doubles up on the 2nd-place challenger in the Twin Cities metro area, while also maintaining a lead in the rest of the state as well. Ortmans lead grows among those who are Strongly Republican and very conservative; among base voters (a combination of those two traits), Ortman leads 22%-8%-7% over McFadden and Abeler, respectively. McFadden has to do more than increase his name recognition to win: among engaged voters who have heard of both Ortman and McFadden, Ortman leads 30%-11%. Among the most engaged voters (who have formed an opinion of both Ortman and McFadden), Ortman leads by a commanding 45%-18%.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey of 400 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Minnesota REPORT & ANALYSIS March 2014

Ortman is also currently the best positioned to earn the endorsement in the May convention; of the 11% of primary voters who said they are likely to attend, Ortman leads 29%-22%-16%, over Abeler and McFadden.

ROOM TO GROW and ANYBODYS RACE FOR THE TAKING

Despite Ortmans lead, just barely over half of the primary electorate say theyve heard of her, and even fewer say theyve heard of McFadden. Their name ID increases among more conservative voters, but not significantly.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Heard Of/Never Heard Of

54% 46% 61% 49% 51%

52%

48%

47%

53% 39%

54% 46%

Julianne Ortman

Mike McFadden

Julianne Ortman

Mike McFadden

Julianne Ortman

Mike McFadden

All Primary Voters

Consv. GOPers (66%)

V. Consv. Str. GOPers (28%)

Heard Of

Never Heard Of

Ortman has a better favorability rating (19% fav/4% unfav) than McFadden (14% fav/2% unfav), though both candidates are still generally undefined to huge sections of the electorate. Ortmans image is best in the Twin Cities region (21% fav), a portion of which she represents in the State Senate, and among very conservative voters (26%). Among base voters, characterized as both very conservative and strongly Republican, Ortman has a sterling 28%-4% fav/unfav. Among likely convention goers, Ortman has a 38%-16% fav/unfav.

SUPPORT FOR THE CONSERVATIVE WING

Likely Republican primary voters across Minnesota are far more certain about the type of candidate to support than which specific candidate to support. By an overwhelming 62% to 23% margin, Minnesota primary voters prefer someone from the conservative wing of the party to someone from the Establishment wing of the party. This sentiment is strongest among the most conservative voters. Among the 62% who prefer a conservative candidate, Ortman leads 17%8%-8% over Abeler and McFadden.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey of 400 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Minnesota REPORT & ANALYSIS March 2014

Al Franken won by the smallest percentage of any U.S Senate contest in the nation in 2008, the year Obama was first elected President and Democrats realized many gains. A double-digit drop in favorability and the reality (not the promise) of Obamacare six years later leaves Senator Franken vulnerable to the right challenger on the Republican side. Methodology Statement the polling company, inc. (Kellyanne Conway) conducted a statewide telephone survey across of 400 men and women who are registered to vote in Minnesota, and who say they are likely to vote in the Republican primary election this August (Minnesota has an open primary). Surveys were conducted February 28 March 1, 2014 using live interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. Quotas were used to ensure proper representation of age, gender, and region. Unlike most surveys, the data were not weighted.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend for Citizens United Political Victory Fund Survey of 400 Likely GOP Primary Voters in Minnesota REPORT & ANALYSIS March 2014