European flood risk could double by 2050

Date: March 2, 2014 Source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Summary: Losses from extreme floods in urope could more than dou!le !y 20"0, !eca use of climate chan#e and socioeconomic de$elopment% &nderstandin# the ris' posed !y lar#e(scale floods is of #ro)in# importance and )ill !e 'ey for ma na#in# climate adaptation% Share *his mail to a friend +ace!oo' *)itter ,oo#le.rint this pa#e More options

+lood of ,eno$a, /o$em!er 2011% 0redit: fotona1ario 2 +otolia 30lic' to enlar#e ima#e4 Losses from extreme floods in urope could more than dou!le !y 20"0, !eca use of climate chan#e and socioeconomic de$elopment% &nderstandin# the ris' posed !y lar#e(scale floods is of #ro)in# importance and )ill !e 'ey for ma na#in# climate adaptation%

0urrent flood losses in urope are li'ely to dou!le !y 20"0, accordin# to a n e) study pu!lished in the 5ournal /ature 0limate 0han#e !y researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 6IIASA7, the Institute for n$ironmental Studies in Amsterdam, and other uropean research center s% Socioeconomic #ro)th accounts for a!out t)o(thirds of the increased ris ', as de$elopment leads to more !uildin#s and infrastructure that could !e da ma#ed in a flood% *he other third of the increase comes from climate chan#e, )hich is pro5ected to chan#e rainfall patterns in urope% 8In this study )e !rou#ht to#ether expertise from the fields of hydrolo#y, e conomics, mathematics and climate chan#e adaptation, allo)in# us for the firs t time to comprehensi$ely assess continental flood ris' and compare the diffe rent adaptation options,8 says 9renden :on#man of the Institute for n$ironm ental Studies in Amsterdam, )ho coordinated the study% *he study estimated that floods in the uropean &nion a$era#ed 4%; !illion a year from 2000 to 2012% *hese a$era#e losses could increase to 2<%" !illion !y 20"0% In addition, lar#e e$ents such as the 201< uropean floods are li'el y to increase in fre=uency from an a$era#e of once e$ery 1> years to a pr o!a!ility of once e$ery 10 years !y 20"0% *he analysis com!ined models of climate chan#e and socioeconomic de$elopme nt to !uild a !etter estimate of flood ris' for the re#ion% IIASA researcher Stefan ?ochrainer(Sti#ler led the modelin# )or' on the study% ?e says, 8*he ne) study for the first time accounts for the correlation !et )een floods in different countries% 0urrent ris'(assessment models assume t hat each ri$er !asin is independent% 9ut in actuality, ri$er flo)s across uro pe are closely correlated, risin# and fallin# in response to lar#e(scale atmos pheric patterns that !rin# rains and dry spells to lar#e re#ions%8 8If the ri$ers are floodin# in 0entral urope, they are li'ely to also !e floodi n# astern uropean re#ions,8 says ?ochrainer(Sti#ler% 8@e need to !e prep ared for lar#er stress on ris' financin# mechanisms, such as the pan( urope an Solidarity +und 6 &S+7, a financial tool for financin# disaster reco$ery in the uropean &nion%8 +or example, the analysis su##ests that the &S+ must pay out funds simulta

neously across many re#ions% *his can cause unaccepta!le stresses to such r is' financin# mechanisms% ?ochrainer(Sti#ler says, 8@e need to reconsider ad $ance mechanisms to finance these ris's if )e )ant to !e in the position to =uic'ly and comprehensi$ely pay for reco$ery%8 IIASA researcher Aeinhard Mechler, another study co(author, points out the lar#er implications arisin# from the analysis% ?e says, 8*here is scope for !et ter mana#in# flood ris' throu#h ris' pre$ention, such as usin# mo$ea!le flood )alls, ris' financin# and enhanced solidarity !et)een countries% *here is no o ne(si1e(fits all solution, and the ris' mana#ement measures ha$e $ery differ ent efficiency, e=uity and accepta!ility implications% *hese need to !e assess ed and considered in !roader consultation, for )hich the analysis pro$ides a comprehensi$e !asis%8