Impact of Global warming on the agriculture of Kashmir Region

Abstract Agriculture is the most prominent sector in the economy of Kashmir region, supporting around 80% of the population of Kashmir region and also generates revenue of around 60% of the state. Rice is the chief crop cultivated in Kashmir followed by maize, barley and wheat etc. according to the census 1994-95, the region accounted for 61% of total cultivated land under rice cultivation. The region also contributes for more than 74% of the total rice production of the state with a yield of 26.13 quintal/hectare. But the effects of global warming have played havoc on the agriculture and economy of Kashmir region. In most of the areas the snowfall months have reduced from four months a year to only two months a year. Many of the areas have seen a complete disappearance of small glaciers Groundwater level on average in Karewas and upper areas has decreased by one-third. Actual time period for snowfall has also undergone a change with December and January receiving scant or no snow while February and March witness heavy snowfall. Water level in almost all the streams and rivers in Kashmir has decreased by approximately two-thirds during the last 40 years. As more and more paddy land is changed in to rain-fed orchards. Sample surveys reveal that 11909 Kanals of paddy land have been converted into rainfed dry land.

The issues that have been looked into in this study are the changing patterns in water availability, crop Cultivation, glacier size, snowfall, rainfall, floods and the impact of all these on the agriculture of Kashmir valley.

INTRODUCTION Agriculture is the most predominant sector in the economy of Jammu and Kashmir. It supports around 80% of the population besides contributing nearly 60% of the state revenue, which adequately explains the over dependency of the population on agriculture. The overall economic growth of the state depends largely on the progress of the agricultural sector, the development of which becomes even more important in the context of the very nominal progress it has made in the secondary sectors. With the introduction of plant development in the state during 1951-56, production of food grains has increased considerably. During 1998-99, the state produced 15.50 lakh quintals of food-grains against 4.53 lakh quintals in 1950-51. Jammu and Kashmir is divided into three agro-climatic zones: cold arid desert area of Ladakh, temperate Kashmir valley and the humid sub-tropical of Jammu. Each has its own geo-climatic conditions which determine cropping pattern and productivity profile. In this paper we are concerned more about Kashmir valley. The agro-climatic zone of Kashmir, also known as cultivators paradise. This region practically depends on Irrigation. A large area of land has alluvial soil. Extensive elevated plateaus of alluvial or lacustrine material (locally called Karewas) also exits in the Kashmir valley. The Karewas are productive only in the face of sufficient rainfall or adequate irrigation facilities. Karewas are also known as the Saffron bowl of the valley. Rice is the chief crop of the zone, followed by maize, barley and wheat. According to the census 1994-95, the Kashmir region accounted for 61 percent of total cultivated land under rice with the highest yield of 26.13 quintal per hectare as compare to approximately 15.96 quintal per hectare in the Jammu region. By the large, the soils are well suited for rice cultivation and 90 percent of the total rice producing area irrigated. The region alone contributes more than 74 percent of total rice produced in the state. The physical and climatic conditions act as inhibiting factors in some part of the valley. Further, the extremely small size of land holding (average is 0.73 hectares) and absence of further scope of extension of cultivation makes it imperative to put agricultural land to optimum use so that the limited land yields the maximum. This could be possible through the judicious application of modern technology adapted to local conditions. The disadvantage of limited land could be

partially overcome through increase in the area under double cropping and by introducing short duration Rabi crop in the valley, which has so far been growing one crop a year. Kashmir is facing a threat of climatic hazard due to the global warming. A Report on Climate Change and its Impact in Kashmir Interviews held with people across Kashmir clearly indicate that there is not a single water stream in Kashmir today which has not witnessed water depletion over the years. Analysis of the data collected from the eight districts of Kashmir in the course of this study show that the water level in almost all the streams and rivers has decreased by about one-third, in some cases even by half, during the last 40 years. It is the water flow in the small streams and tributaries that finally determine the overall water availability in Kashmir from three main rivers, namely Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, which finally flow into Pakistan. Over the last few years, sudden rise in temperatures (usually 4.5 Celsius above normal) in the months of February, March, April and May has resulted in faster melting of glaciers, thereby flooding most of the streams and rivers in these months. These are the months when the water of almost all the streams and rivers goes waste in the Kashmir region due to non-availability of storage sites and flows into Pakistan where large reservoirs on the streams of Jhelum, Chenab and Indus help that country to store waters around. The Wullar Lake has lost around 60 percent of its area and the lake has come down from 40ft to an average of 20ft. Although there are other factors like siltation, growing plantation inside the lake area and disruption of the normal ecological and livelihood activities of the local people in the lake due to its takeover by the armed forces, overall loss of water in the Wullar Lake is certainly a reality. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON AGRICULTURE OF KASHMIR A study by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the International Center for This formerly paddy land has been converted into an orchard in Khan Sahib Karewas due to water shortage. Similarly, thousands of Kanals of irrigated paddy land have been converted into dry land. Deficit in food production in Kashmir region has reached 40 per cent, while the deficit is 30 percent in vegetable production and 69 per cent in oilseed production for a population of 6 million, putting food security at a greater risk. In 1980.81, Kashmir valley had a food deficit of only 23per cent for a total population of 3.3 million. More and more paddy land is changed in to

rain-fed orchards, Kashmir current 40 per cent food grain deficit is likely to touch over 60 percent in the coming 10 years if the current rate of change is taken into account. Sample surveys reveal that 11909 Kanals of paddy land have been converted into rain-fed dry land in the districts of Kupwara, Baramulla, Bandipora, Badgam, Pulwama, Kulgam and Shopian in recent years. TRENDS IN RICE PRODUCTION
Year Production (000Tonnes) 391.1 414.9 421.8 421.0 504.2 492.2 556.8 554.0 561.3 497.4 507.66 483.49 Area (000hectares) 250.6 244.1 249.8 236.2 259.8 250.0 259.0 252.5 263.2 257.6 259.9 252.97 Productivity (Kg/hectare) 1560 1700 1690 1783 1940 1968 2149 2194 2132 1930 1953 % increase & decrease 8.98 -0.59 5.50 8.80 1.44 9.19 2.10 -2.82 -9.50 1.20 -

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Average

Ministry of agriculture, Government of India As against a revenue of Rs 2000 crore from the horticulture sector, Kashmir has imports of mutton, milk and poultry have risen to a whopping Rs 16000 crore annually from different states of India, making it clear that among other factors, the impacts of climate change have

contributed their bit in reducing the capacity of the local rural economy to produce these essential commodities. Large-scale transition from paddy cultivation to rain-fed crops poses risk to food security in Kashmir. In the post WTO scenario, foreign fruits. Mainly apples have started flooding Indian markets; demand for Kashmiri fruits is likely to reduce. Low demand could cripple the capacity of poor small farmers to buy food grains from the market. APPLE PRODUCTION
Area ('000 hectare) 67.4 69.5 80.4 86.7 100.7 126.4 139.0 % increase/ decrease 3.10 15.70 7.80 16.15 25.50 10.0 Production ('000 MT) 427.0 624.5 813.7 929.0 1041.5 1268.5 1341.6 % increase/ decrease 46.25 30.20 14.20 12.10 21.80 5.80 Productivity/ hectare 6.3 9.0 10.1 10.7 11.5 10.0 9.9 % increase/ decrease 42.85 12.22 5.94 7.50 -13.0 -1.0

Year

1987-88 1991-92 1996-97 1999-00 2003-04 2007-08 2009-10

National Horticulture Board, Ministry of agriculture, Government of India IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON AGRICULTURE OF KASHMIR Global warming refers to a gradual rise of temperature in the atmosphere and the consequent change in the global radiation balance mainly due to anthropogenic processes leading to climatic change at different levels-local, regional and global. As per recent estimates, the surface air temperature over the past hundred years has increased by about 0.5 C to 0.7 C. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases at the rate of 0.4 percent or 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon every year. This increase in the amount of the carbon dioxide and other gases has led to the sharp increase in the temperature of the globe and that has also led to the melting of glaciers at a very fast rate. The rate of melting of glaciers is very alarming in the Kashmir Himalayas. The major concern is the melting of glaciers like Temperature on an average in Kashmir region has shown an increase of 1.4 Celsius there is a clear unpredictability of the

western disturbances passing over Kashmir, possibly due to factors which could be global in nature, with unusual distribution of rainfall in space and time, shifting patterns of precipitation and sustained deficit of snowfall. The study shows that the water level in almost all the streams and rivers in Kashmir has decreased by approximately two-thirds during the last 40 years. The Ningli river goes dry for around 3-4 month from past decade. The groundwater level on average in Karewas and upper areas has decreased by one-third and on the on the other hand the actual time period for snowfall has also undergone a change with December and January receiving scant or no snow while February and March witness heavy snowfall. Quantity of snowfall in Kashmir has clearly reduced over the last few decades. Although occasionally it does have spells of heavy snowfall, the inability of snow to freeze and develop into hard and longer-lasting crystals. A Report on Climate Change and its Impact in Kashmir owing to higher temperatures has resulted in faster meltdown. (1) It has been found that there has been an overall 21 per cent reduction in the glacier surface area in the Chenab basin. The mean area of glacial extent has also declined from 1 sq km to 0.32 sq km during 1962 to 2004.Many of the areas have seen a complete disappearance of small glaciers such as some parts of eastern Srinagar and Pirpanjal mountain range in Pulwama District. In other areas, like Budgam, the height of the small glaciers has reduced to over one-fourth of the original height.In the upper reaches of the Sindh Valley in Ganderbal district, the Najwan Akal which was said to be a major glacier, has completely disappeared today. Similarly, the Thajwas, Zojila and Naranag glaciers used to be large enough to last up to October through November some decades back, but today they have considerably reduced. In the Kapran area in Anantnag (Islamabad), the length of the Hangipora glacier has reduced from 35ft to 12ft and the Naaginad glacier has reduced from 30ft to 10ft. In Chaklipora area the Galgudi and Wandernad glaciers have considerably decreased in size since approximately the last two decades. In the Kalaroos village the snow levels have reduced from 10ft to 3ft. In Manzgam village snowfall has reduced from 6ft to a maximum of 2.3ft. Similarly, people in Wader area of Kupwara report decrease of snowfall from 12ft to 5ft today. In Choolan area, located in the Shamasbari mountain range in Baramulla district, the nearby glacier, namely

Katha, has reduced from about 200ft forty years ago to about 80ft today. In Karnah sub-region the glaciers of Shamasbari and Sadhna have decreased in size by more than half during the last 30 years. The Budrukot glacier has reduced from 16ft to only 5ft in height over the years. The Khujwan glacier in the mountains of the Kichama area has reduced from 40ft to only 20ft over the years. The Afarwat glacier around Nambalnar Hajibal area, which used to be 300 meters long 40 years ago, has completely disappeared today. This rare temperate region in the Indian subcontinent draws about 70% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the surrounding ecological resources. Livelihood of more than 75% Kashmiris is dependent on horticulture, agriculture and handicrafts with raw material for these being mostly drawn from the natural environment itself. Another dimension of climate change in Kashmir is seen in the unusual fall in temperatures in seasons which would normally have a set temperature pattern like in spring. For instance, the month of May in 2007 has been unusually cold in Kashmir. The temperature hovered around 25 to 26Celsius during the second fortnight of May, which according to experts, is 8Celsius below normal. During May, Kashmir should have been experiencing temperatures ranging somewhere close to 34Celsius. Environmentalists attribute this to rise in average temperature, decrease in precipitation and loss of vegetation cover in Kashmir, particularly during winters. Fifty years ago, Kashmirs forest cover was 37 per cent of its total surface area, which has today reduced to only 11 per cent. There is also a drastic decrease in snowfall as compared to other decades; there was also the blooming of flowers amidst snowfall in Srinagar in February 2007. Early blooming of fruit blossoms and flowers due to warmer temperatures during February and March in has been damaging fruit produce as sudden late snows in February and March devastate blossoms.

Reference:
1. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2. A Report on climatic change and its Impact in Kashmir, (ActionAid). 3. Convayer magazine vol 3 (jan-feb 2011)