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Background Brief South China Sea: Chinese Navy to Seize Pag-asa Island this Year Carlyle A. Thayer January 15, 2014

[client name deleted] The Chinese media is running reports that the military might try to seize Pagasa Island from the Philippines this year. See: http://chinadailymail.com/2014/01/13/the-reasons-why-a-battle-for-zhongye-pagasa-island-seems-unavoidable/ http://chinadailymail.com/2014/01/11/chinese-troops-to-seize-zhongye-islandback-from-the-philippines-in-2014/ Would request your evaluation of this possibility and what, if anything, the Philippines can do about it. ANSWER: It is common for retired Chinese military officers and civilian ultranationalists to write about the South China Sea and threaten the Philippines with military action for stealing Chinese territory. This months article by Chan Kai Yee, arguing that China would seize back Thitu Island (Zhongye in Chinese) in 2014 is no exception. Thitu Island, or Pag-asa in Tagalog, is the second largest island in the Spratlys with a surface area of 37.2 hectares (or 0.14 square miles/0.36 square kilometers). This compares with Itu Aba Island, the largest, occupied by Taiwan with an area of 46 ha. Thitu Island lies exposed in the upper northwest quadrant of the Spratly Archipelago at the outer boundary of islands and features forming the Spratly archipelago. The island has a civilian population of about 200 and a small garrison of perhaps fifty soldiers. It also has a 1,400 meter airstrip capable of taking the giant C-130 cargo aircraft. China could easily achieve surprise by disguising an invasion force as a flotilla engaged in routine naval exercises in the South China Sea. In March-April last year, for example, China assembled a small flotilla to conduct combat training exercises in the South China Sea. The flotilla comprised the modern amphibious assault ship Jinggangshan, two guided missile frigates and a guided missile destroyer. When the flotilla reached the waters surrounding Mischief Reef Chinese state television showed pictures of Peoples Liberation Army marines in hovercraft storming the beach of a Chinese-occupied feature supported by armed helicopters.

2 A similar flotilla could set sail to engage in normal combat training exercises and achieve strategic surprise by veering off suddenly and invade Thitu Island. The Philippines would have little or no warning time to prepare to defend Pag-asa. The island would probably be taken in an hour. This scenario assumes that U.S. intelligence and its associated national technical means failed to detect signs of Chinas intent in advance, thus providin g warning time to take action to deter China. Chinas seizure of Thitu could be expected to follow some signs of deteriorating relations between China and the Philippines or a worsening security situation in the region. Chinas seizure of Thitu Island would be an act of war. The Philippines would immediately seek consultations with the United States under their Mutual Defense Treaty to work out a response. Currently, the Armed Forces of the Philippines would be unable to mount any meaningful response. Chinese destroyers and frigates would provide air defense if the Philippines scrambled jet fighters from the nearest air base on Palawan Island over 480 km distant. The Philippine Navy would be woefully outgunned. The political fallout would be a huge set back for Chinese diplomacy. ASEAN would likely adopt an uncompromising political position and demand the immediate withdrawal of Chinese forces from Thitu. The matter could even be raised at the United Nations, but China would veto any discussion by the Security Council. China actions in seizing Thitu Island would set off a race by claimant states to fortify their islands and features even positioning anti-ship cruise missiles on the larger islands.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinese Navy to Seize Pagasa Island this Year, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 15, 2014. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.