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Fe ruary

Makati Shangri-La

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating
Completed Substantial Progress Started Not Ongoing Backward / Regression No Longer Relevant

2012 Tally
11 74 205 134 25 13

2013 Tally
19 94 213 94 26 17

Tally
5 36 191 168 51 11

Percentage
1.08% 7.79% 41.34% 36.36% 11.04% 2.38%

Percentage
2.38% 16.02% 44.37% 29.00% 5.41% 2.81%

Percentage
4.11% 20.35% 46.10% 20.35% 5.63% 3.68%

Tally 232

2011 Percentage 51.44%

Tally 290

2012 Percentage 64.59%

Tally 326

2013 Percentage 73.26%

Tally 219

2011 Percentage 48.56%

Tally 159

2012 Percentage 35.41%

Tally 120

2013 Percentage 26.97%

Progress Steady Declined Improved

Tally 285 50 112

Percentage 63.33% 11.24% 25.17%

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

SE TIO

St

SP

Steady

Declined

Improved

Active

Dormant

Part

ro ing Too Slo

Part

Becoming More

ompetitive

Agri usiness

Business Process Outsourcing BPO

reative Industries

Manufacturing

Logistics

Mining

Tourism Medical Travel and etirement

Infrastructure Policy

Infrastructure Airports

Infrastructure Po er

Infrastructure

oads

ails

Infrastructure Seaports

Infrastructure Telecommunications

Infrastructure

ater

Business

osts

Environment and atural Disaster

Foreign E uity and Professionals

overnance

udicial

La or

Legislation

Local

overnment

Macroeconomic Policy

Security

Social Services Education

Social Services Health and Population

Social Services Poverty

TOTAL

vii

Second Anniversary Assessment

esults

First Anniversary Assessment

esults

viii

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

OVERALL TALLY
Third Anniversary Assessment 2013
Completed Substantial Progress Started Not Ongoing Backward / Regression No Longer Relevant 19 94 213 94 26 17 (4.11%) (20.35%) (46.10%) (20.35%) (5.63%) (3.68%)

Second Anniversary Assessment 2012 Completed Substantial Progress Started Not Ongoing Backward / Regression No Longer Relevant 11 74 (2.38%) (16.02%)

First Anniversary Assessment 2011 Completed Substantial Progress Started Not Ongoing Backward / Regression No Longer Relevant 5 36 (1.08%) (7.79%)

205 (44.37%) 134 (29.00%) 25 13 (5.41%) (2.81%)

191 (41.34%) 168 (36.36%) 51 11 (11.04%) (2.38%)

2013 2012 2011

326 (73.26%) 290 (64.59%) 232 (51.44%)

120 (26.97%) 159 (35.41%) 219 (48.56%)

PROGRESS OF RATINGS
Steady 63.33% Deteriorated 11.24% Improved 25.17%

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2013 2012 2011

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xvii

2013 Philippine Competitiveness Rankings


Survey 1. Best Countries for Business 2. Failed States Index
1

Year 2013 2013 2013 2013 Year 2013 2013


2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013 2013 2013 2010 2013 2013

2012 Ranking 87 of 141 56 of 177 107 of 179


2012 43 of 59 Ranking

2013 Ranking 90 of 145 59 of 178

Trend Deteriorated Improved

Previous ASEAN-6 Ranking 5 of 6 6 of 6

2013 ASEAN6 Ranking 5 of 6 6 of 6

Trend Stable Stable Stable Stable Trend Improved Stable


Stable Improved Stable Stable Stable -Improved Stable Improved --

Date of Previous Press Release Dec. 2013 Jun. 24, 2013 Jan. 10, 2013
Date of Previous May 30, 2013 Press Release

(Est.) Date of Next Release Dec. 2014 Jun. 2014 Jan. 2014
(Est.) Date of May 2014 Next Release

Competitiveness 8. E-Government Yearbook Survey5 Readiness 5. International 6 9. Doing Business Property Rights Index 6. Corruption 10. Investing Across 7 Perception Index Borders 7. Human Development 11. Paying Taxes12 Report

3. Index of Economic Freedom 4. World Competitiveness Survey Yearbook 5. 1. International Best Countries for Property Business Rights Index 6. 2. Corruption Failed States Index1 Perception Index 3. Index of Economic 7. Human Development Freedom Report 4. World

2013 Philippine Rankings 97 of 177 Improved Competitiveness 4 of 6 4 of 6


2013 38 of 60 Ranking

Improved Trend

Previous 5 of 52 ASEAN-6 Ranking

20135ASEANof 52 6 Ranking 54 ofof 66 6 of 3 of 66 4 of 6 4 of 6 5 of 52 46 ofof 66 3 of 6 --

87 of of 141 130 87
56 of 105 of177 174 107 112 of of 179 187 43 of 59 88 of 190 87 of 136 of130 183

77of of145 131 Deteriorated Improved 90


59 94of of178 177 97114 of 177 of 186 38 of 60 -Improved Improved Improved Deteriorated Improved -Improved Deteriorated Improved -Deteriorated Deteriorated

of663 55of
6 of 4 of 66 44of of664 (2011) 5 of 52 4 of 6 56 ofof 636 4 of 6 -4 of 6 5 of 6 (2011)
4

Sept. 20, 2013 Dec. 2013


Jun.Dec. 24, 2013 2013 Jan. 10, 2013 Mar. 14, 2013 May 30, 2013 Mar. 6, 2012 Sept. 20, 2013 Oct. 23, 2012 Dec. Jul. 2013 7, 2010

Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014


Jun. 2014 Dec. 2014 Jan. 2014 Mar. 2014 May 2014 Mar. 2014 Sept. 2014 Oct. 2013

of 77138 of 131 185


94 of --177 114 143of of 186 185

87174 105 of countries 112 of 187 135 of 183

Before end of Dec. 2014 2012


Mar. 2014 Nov. 2013

4 of 66 6of

Stable Mar. 14, 2013 Deteriorated Nov. 21, 2012

The Environmental Performance Index is a biennial report, previously published in 2010, first released in 2006. Based on the New Series of Environmental Performance Index. Based on the 2012 report, but latest data is 2010; this series was revised and is not comparable to the data released in A Failed States Indexdue ranking closer to 0 means closer to complete state failure. 2006, 2008 and 2010 to methodological refinements 2 12 The 2012 and 2013 World Competitiveness Yearbook did not include Vietnam. is published on 2012. The latest is Paying Taxes 2014published on Nov. 19, 2013, Philippines rank 131. 3 Paying Taxes for 2013 Progress Data Sources 12. Global 4 The 2013 IPRI stated that the Philippines was at par with Vietnam. 12. Global 2013 65 of 144 59 of 148 Human Improved 5 of 6 5 of 6 Stable Magazine Sept. 4, 2013 Sept. 2014 Improved Rankings (both 2012 and THE UNDP, as per its database, did not publish a 2012 Development 1 Forbes 2013 65 of 144 59 ofReport. 148 Improved 5 of 6 5 of 6 Stable Sept. 4, 2013 Sept. 2014 Competitiveness Report 8 5 The UN E-Governance Readiness Survey is a biennial report previously published in 2010. Competitiveness Report 2013) 2 Foreign Policy Magazine / The Fund for Peace 6 13. Global Enabling The 2013 Report was published in October 2012. The latest is the Doing Business 2014 which published on Oct. 2013, Philippines rank 108 of 189. 13. Global Enabling 2012 of 132 -- before Improved 6 report of 6 was published--May 23, 2012 Street Journal May 2014 7 8 0 Stable Rankings 3 Heritage Foundation / Wall Investing Across Borders is a72 biennial report due out end of 2012; previous in 2010. 2012 72 the of 132 -Improved 6 of 6 --May 23, 2012 May 2014 Trade Report 8 8 TradeTrade Report The Global Enabling Report is a biennial report. The previous report was published in 2010. It does not include 4 all 6 major ASEAN economies. International Institute of Management Development 4 Deteriorated Rankings 14. Travel 9& Tourism 72 of 139 The World Economic Forums Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report is supposedly a biennial report first published in 2007(with the exception in 2008 when a report was published). 14. 2013 Travel & Tourism of 139 5Deteriorated 82 of 140 72 Deteriorated 4 of 6 6 of 6 Mar. 7, 2013 Mar. 2015 Property Rights Alliance 9 10 2013 report, previously published 82 of 140 Deteriorated 6 of 6 Deteriorated Mar. 7, 2013 Mar. 2015 Competitiveness (2011) The Environmental Performance Index is a biennial in 2010, first released in 2006. 4 of 6 9 Competitiveness 3 (2011) Unreleased (2013) 6this Transparency International 11 Based on the New Series of Environmental Performance Index. Based on the 2012 report, but latest data is 2010; series was revised and is not comparable to the data released in 15. Environmental 11 7 United Nations Development Programme Environmental 2012 42 of 163 --3 of 6 --Jan. 25, 2012 Jan. 2014 2006, 2008 2010 due to methodological refinements 11 10and15. 12 Index 2012 of 163 --- 19, 2013, Philippines 3 of 6 --Jan. 25, 2012 Jan. 2014 Performance 10 2012. The Paying Taxes Performance for 2013 is published latest 42 is Paying Taxes 2014published on Nov. 131. Nations 8rankUnited Public Administration Network Indexon
11 1

12. Global 8. E-Government 2013 65 of of 190 144 59 of Improved 5 of 5 of 6 Stable Sept. 2013 Sept. 2014 2012 88 -- 148 -4 of 6 6 -Mar. 6, 4, 2012 Mar. 2014 5 1 Competitiveness Report Readiness Survey A Failed States Index ranking closer to 0 means closer to complete state failure. 2 The 2012 and 2013 World Competitiveness Yearbook did not include 13. Global Enabling 138 of Vietnam. 6 3 2012 136 72 of -Improved of -May 23, 2012 May 2014 9. Doing Business 2013 183 Deteriorated 66 of 66 6 of-6 Stable Oct. 23, 2012 Oct. 2013 The 2013 IPRI8stated that the Philippines was at132 par with Vietnam. Trade Report 185 4 THE UNDP, as per its database, did not publish a 2012 Human Development Report. 5 10. Investing Across 87 Before end of 14. Travel & TourismReadiness 72 139 report-The UN E-Governance Survey is of a biennial previously published 2010 -- in 2010. --of 6 -Jul. 7, 7, 2010 7 2013 82 of 140 Deteriorated 4-of 6 6 Deteriorated Mar. 2013 Mar. 6 9 Borders countries 2012 2015 The 2013 Report was published in October 2012. The latest is the Doing Business 2014 which published on Oct. 2013, Philippines rank 108 of 189. Competitiveness (2011) 7 Investing Across Borders is a biennial report due out before the end of 2012; previous report was published in 2010. of 8 15. 11 The 143 TheEnvironmental Global Enabling Report is a biennial report. previous report was -published in 2010. It does all 6 major ASEAN economies. 11. Paying Taxes12 Trade 2013 135 of163 183 Deteriorated 53 of 6 6of 6 Deteriorated Nov. 21, 2012 Nov. 2013 2012 42 of -of 6 not include --Jan. 25, 2012 Jan. 2014 10 9 185 Performance IndexForums The World Economic Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report is supposedly a biennial report first published in 2007(with the exception in 2008 when a report was published).
10

World Ranking

6 Stable Rankings Progress Data Progress Data 2 Deteriorated Rankings Improved Rankings (both 2012 and 8 (both 2012 and Improved Rankings 2013) 4 Unavailable 2013) 0 Stable Rankings Stable Rankings 4 Deteriorated Rankings Deteriorated Rankings 3 Unreleased (2013) Unreleased (2013)
World Ranking 3 Improved Rankings 6 Stable Rankings 2 Deteriorated Rankings Deteriorated Rankings 4 Unavailable Unavailable Improved Rankings Stable Rankings ASEAN-6 Ranking

ASEAN-6 Ranking

Improved Rankings

World Ranking

8 0 4 3 3 6 2 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

9 World Bank 10 World Bank 11 World Bank Sources Sources 12 World Economic Forum Forbes Magazine 1 Forbes Magazine 13 World Economic Forum Foreign Policy Magazine / The Fund for Peace 2 Foreign Policy Magazine / The Fund for Peace 14 World Economic Forum Heritage Foundation / Wall Street Journal 3 Heritage FoundationLaw / Wall Street Journal 15 Yale Center for Environmental and Policy International Institute of Management Development 4 International Institute of Management Development Property Rights Alliance 5 Property Rights Alliance Transparency International 6 Transparency International United Nations Development Programme 7 United Nations Development Programme United Nations Public Administration Network 8 United Nations Public Administration Network World Bank 9 World Bank World Bank 10 World Bank World Bank 11 World Bank World Economic Forum 12 World Economic Forum World Economic Forum 13 World Economic Forum World Economic Forum 14 World Economic Forum Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy 15 Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy

ASEAN-6 Ranking

xviii ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

There is no other time in our history where so many favorable factors are converging in our favor: our economy is robust and getting stronger, we have a young and dynamic citizenry, the entire investment world is focusing on us and giving us favorable marks, unlike the attitude in past years it is a rare time in our history.
- Ramon del Rosario Jr., Chairman, Makati Business Club, February 11, 2014

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PART 1

Growing Too Slow

Recommendations: 8
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active Dormant

Dormant Dormant

Progress: 2 Improved Rating: 0 4


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 3

Declined

6 1 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

PART 1

GROWING TOO SLOW


While the macroeconomic fundamentals of the Philippines have been impressive, its share of foreign direct investments pales in comparison with those of other countries in the region. If we do not make our economy attractive for foreign investments, we would not be able to maximize the benefits from economic integration. Investments will pour in and factories will be built in our neighboring countries, and they will be exporting goods to us while we export our workers to them to run their factories... a most sorry scenario.
- Speaker Feliciano R. Belmonte Jr., Meeting with Joint Foreign Chambers and Philippine Business Groups, February 12, 2014

The three biggest challenges facing the Philippine economy are to move up to a higher level of sustained growth, create more and better jobs, and make growth inclusive. After two decades (1980-2000) of negligible per capita GDP growth, per capita income has steadily increased from 2000 onwards as population growth eased and OFW remittances accelerated. Of the ASEAN-6, for the past five decades, the Philippines had the lowest GDP and PCI growth, but from 1999 to 2013, real GDP growth improved, averaging 5.1% and tracking closely to Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand. From 2010 to 2013, GDP growth fell from 7.6% (2010) to 3.6% (2011),
Philippine Historical GDP and GNI Real Growth Rates, 1980-2013
15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GDP GNI

BOP & Power crises/ Coup


EDSA 1

Asian Financial Crisis

EDSA 2

Fiscal crisis

Global Financial Crisis

Aquino, C

Ramos

Estrada

Arroyo

Aquino, B

Sources: NSCB (new linked series); Bernardo and Tang (2008)

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

then rose to 6.8% (2012) and 7.2% (2013). This achieved the distinction of being the fastest growing of the ASEAN-6 economies for two successive years. This is the first time in our data series (beginning 1960) that the Philippines has placed first, hopefully the start of extended catching up with the other regional economies. The Philippines has also lagged in job-creating FDI within ASEAN, no matter what measures are usedabsolute, per capita, or percent of GDP . 2013 saw a signifcant increase to a record level of $3.1 billion in the first nine months, for an estimated annual figure of $4.1 billion, almost 50% higher than the $2.8 billion in 2012, and over twice the $1.8 billion in 2011. This development places Arangkadas target of $7.5 billion a year within arms reach.

Recommendation 1

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Average Real GDP Growth Rates, % ASEAN-6, 1960-2013


12% 10% Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Malaysia Singapore Thailand

8%
6% 4% 2% 0%

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2013

Sources: World Bank; 2012 data - Country statistics offices (Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam); Media releases (Indonesia and Thailand) and authors estimates (Malaysia)

PART 1: GROWING TOO SLOW

Average Real GDP Per Capita Growth, % ASEAN-6, 1980-2012


7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2012 Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Philippines

Source: IMF WEO Database (April 2012)

Recommendation 2

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

Recommendation 3

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Started

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Recommendation 4

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

Total Philippine Exports, 1990-2012, US$ Bn


75 60 Services, lhs Goods, lhs YOY growth 50% 40%

45
30 15 0 -15 -30

30%
20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

Source: BSP (BOP concept)


PART 1: GROWING TOO SLOW

Recommendation 5

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

Recommendation 6

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Domestic Investments, % of GDP , ASEAN-6, 1990-2012


Countries
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 1990-1999 27.8 36.3 25.2 33.8 36.3 23.7 2000-2009 25.0 23.0 20.2 24.0 25.9 35.8 2010-2012 33.5 24.1 20.2 23.9 27.0 32.9 2011 32.8 23.6 21.7 22.4 26.5 32.6 2012 35.3 25.5 18.5 27.0 28.5 27.2

Sources: ADB, Country Statistics Office (Malaysia and Thailand)

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Recommendation 7

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Gross Fixed Investments, % of GDP , ASEAN-6, 1990-2012


50% 45% 40% 35% 30%

25%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Singapore Malaysia Philippines

Sources: ADB and NESDB (Thailand QGDP series)

PART 1: GROWING TOO SLOW

Recommendation 8

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Substantial Progress

Real GDP Growth Rates, ASEAN-6, 1990-2013


20%

15%
10% 5% 0%

-5%
-10% -15%

Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Singapore

Sources: World Bank; 2012 data - Country statistics offices (Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam); Media releases (Indonesia and Thailand) and authors estimates (Malaysia); 2013f are from WEO forecast except for actual figures for Philippines and Singapore.

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 2

Becoming More Competitive

Recommendations: 3
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Progress: 0 Improved Rating: 0 1


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 2

Declined

3 0 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

PART 2

BECOMING MORE COMPETITIVE


Myanmar is opening up, Indonesia is making progress on infrastructure, and you have the Philippines, which is a real bright spot in the region right now,... Thailand risks losing its international competitiveness. Thats the real worry.
- Euben Paracuelles, Southeast Asia economist, Nomura, quoted in International New York Times, January 31, 2014

While Filipinos are highly competitive in the world job market, the countrys domestic competitiveness has much room for improvement. Global rating surveys abound with ever-expanding coverage stimulated by the globalization of investment, trade, and information. The Philippines was on a downward trajectory in international competitiveness rankings in the last decade but in recent years has reversed direction, making significant gains in closing gaps with several of its comparable regional economies, especially in measures of corruption, governance, and infrastructure. This improvement can be credited to more systematic efforts undertaken by the Philippine Government through the National Competitiveness Council for several years to regain competitiveness. However, these efforts must be sustained and accelerated to produce more encouraging results faster.
Changes in 15 PH International Competitiveness Rankings, 2008-2013
12 10 8
No. of Rankings

Expon. (Improved Rankings )

6 4

Expon. (Deteriorated Rankings)

2
0

Improved Rankings Deteriorated Rankings Stable Rankings Unreleased

2008 3 5 4 3

2009 2 10 1 2

2010 6 6 1 2

2011 5 6 0 4

2012 7 3 2 3

2013 9 1 2 3

Source: JV Pimentel, AmCham-TAPP , 2014

10

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

10 Lessons on Competitiveness by Guillermo M. Luz (Private Sector Co-Chair, National Competitiveness Council - NCC)
1. Transparency leads to competitiveness. 2. Work in progress is not good enough. 3. Execution and delivery matter. 4. Teamwork is important. 5. We need to work on multiple fronts. 6. The competition never sleeps. 7. The bar always rises. 8. Speed to reform is important. 9. Maintaining momentum is important. 10. We need to institutionalize change.

Recommendation 1

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

PH Competitiveness Rankings, 2008-2013


Survey 2008
1. Best Countries for Business1 2. Failed States Index2 3. Index of Economic Freedom 4. World Competitiveness Yearbook 5. International Property Rights Index 91 of 121 59 of 177 98 of 156 40 of 55 62 of 115

Ranking 2009
84 of 127 53 of 178

Trend 2012
87 of 141 56 of 177

Sources

2010
91 of 128 (2010) 51 of 177

2011
87 of 134 (2011) 50 of 177

2013
90 of 145 59 of 178 97 of 177 38 of 60 77 of 131 94 of 177 Deteriorated Stable Improved Improved Improved Improved Stable Deteriorated Improved ----Forbes Magazine Foreign Policy Magazine / The Fund for Peace Heritage Foundation / Wall Street Journal International Institute of Management Development Property Rights Alliance Transparency International United Nations Development Programme United Nations Public Administration Network World Bank World Bank World Bank

104 of 178 109 of 178 115 of 179 107 of 179 43 of 57 74 of 115 39 of 58 80 of 125 41 of 59 87 of 129 43 of 59 87 of 130

6. Corruption Perception 141 of 180 139 of 180 134 of 178 129 of 182 105 of 174 Index 7. Human Development Report 8. e-Government Readiness Survey5 9. Doing Business 10. Investing Across Borders6 11. Paying Taxes 90 of 177 66 of 182 105 of 182 ----97 of 169 (2010) 78 of 183

112 of 187 112 of 187 114 of 186 (2011) ----88 of 190 -----

141 of 183 146 of 183 134 of 183 136 of 183 138 of 185 108 of 189 (2008-09) (2009-10) (2010-11) (2011-12) (2012-13) (2013-14) 87 countries ----87 countries ----87 countries -----

126 of 178 129 of 181 135 of 183 124 of 183 135 of 183 143 of 185 Deteriorated

PART 2: BECOMING MORE COMPETITIVE

11

Survey 2008
12. Global Competitiveness Report 13. Global Enabling Trade Report7 14. Travel & Tourism Competitiveness8 15. Environmental Performance Index9 71 of 134

Ranking 2009
87 of 133

Trend 2012
65 of 144

Sources

2010
85 of 139

2011
75 of 142

2013
59 of 148 Improved World Economic Forum

82 of 118 81 of 130 41 of 132

82 of 121 86 of 133 42 of 132

92 of 125 ----41 of 132

----94 of 139 -----

72 of 132 ----41 of 132

----82 of 140 -----

Improved Improved Stable

World Economic Forum World Economic Forum Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy

Recommendation 2

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Areas of Dissatisfaction %, Philippines, 2003-2013


100% 90% 88% 84%

80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

79%
73%

Corruption Laws and regulations 59% 54% Infrastructure Local Protectionism Ease of moving products

40%

Source: AmCham Gallup Surveys

12

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Recommendation 3

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Substantial Progress

Started

Started

World Competitiveness, Percentile Rankings, Selected ASEAN Countries, 2001-2013

100

90
80 70

60
50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines 43rd 38th

Sources: International Institute for Management Development and authors calculations

PART 2: BECOMING MORE COMPETITIVE

13

Corruption Perceptions Index, Percentile Rankings, ASEAN-6, 1998-2013


100 90 80 70 60 50 94th

40
30

105th 129th

20
10 0

Singapore

Malaysia

Thailand

Philippines

Indonesia

Vietnam

Sources: Transparency International and authors calculations

Ease of Doing Business, Percentile Rankings, ASEAN-6, 2006-2014


100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 108th

20
10 0

138th

2006
Singapore

2007

2008

2009
Malaysia

2010

2011

2012
Indonesia

2013

2014
Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Source: World Bank Note: 2014 data contains 2013 data; this one-year advanced reporting applies to the rest of previous reports

Global Competitiveness, Percentile Rankings, ASEAN-6, 2001-2013


100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam 87th 85th 75th 61st 59th

Sources: World Economic Forum, authors calculation

14

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

Agribusiness

Recommendations: 18
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active Dormant Dormant

Dormant

Progress: 4 Improved Rating: 0 14


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 1

Declined

14 3 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

15

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

AGRIBUSINESS
With over one million Filipinos entering the labor force each year, the service sector alone cannot absorb them all... No surprise, then, that poverty has barely declined in recent years or that the countrys per capita GDP is the lowest among ASEANs core five. To reverse these trends, the country has to create jobs for semi- and unskilled workers in manufacturing and agriculture. But doing that, in turn, will require attracting more foreign investment, which for the Philippines is currently among the lowest in Asia...
- Karen Brooks, former Asian Affairs Director, US National Security Council, Foreign Affairs, JanuaryFebruary 2014

Although 32% of employed Filipinos worked in agriculture in 2012, Philippine food exports were less than 5% of the ASEAN-6 total that year. By contrast, Vietnam has tripled its share of the ASEAN total since 1997, while the share of the Philippines actually declined. Growth in Philippine agricultural export value has been very slow, while such exports of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam skyrocketed 5-to 8-fold in the past two decades. Nevertheless, the Philippines has very high potential to export large quantities of specialized food products exploiting a multitude of new market opportunities from present and future Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Filipino farmers face high domestic transport, labor, and other costs, and the Philippines lags in integrating small farms into larger enterprises. Mindanao has great potential, both to feed Luzon and to export. Long-standing farm infrastructure requirements need investment. The Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program Extended with Revisions (CARPER), which ends in mid-2014, has greatly discouraged corporate farming.

16

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Recommendation 1

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Not Ongoing

Started

Share in ASEAN-6 Agricultural Exports, 1990-2012


60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Singapore Philippines

Source: WTO; No data for Vietnam before 1997

Recommendation 2

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started
PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS: AGRIBUSINESS

17

Agricultural Products Exports, ASEAN-6, 1990-2012, US$ Billion


60 Indonesia Thailand 50 Malaysia Vietnam 40 Singapore Philippines

30

20

10

19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

Source: WTO; No data for Vietnam before 1997

Recommendation 3

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

18

ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Agricultural Goods and Food Exports, ASEAN-6, 2012, US$ Billion


Countries Agricultural goods Agricultural food exports, % of total agricultural exports Agricultural Area, in (000 Ha), 2009

Exports Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam 45.0 33.9 5.1 9.9 42.0 25.0

Imports Trade Balance 20.9 21.4 7.2 14.0 16.8 13.7 24.1 12.5 -2.2 -4.1 25.2 11.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 54500.0 7870.0 12100.0 0.7 21060.0 10842.0

Sources: WTO and FAO (for agricultural land area as of 2009)

Recommendation 4

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

Recommendation 5

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

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Agriculture and Forest Products Exports Distribution, 2012


Forest Products, 1.6% Other Agro-Based Products, 22.4% Coconut Products, 37.8%

Other Fruits and vegetables, 15.4%

Source: NSO

Bananas, 17.9%

Sugar and Related Products, 4.9%

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

Business Process Outsourcing

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

BUSINESS PROCESS OUTSOURCING (BPO)


Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) has become an important business sector because of its large size, high growth rate, and long-term potential to provide several million quality jobs and earn high service export revenue. The Philippines has clear advantages: a large workforce of educated, English-speaking talent with a strong customer-service orientation, a close cultural affinity to North America, highly reliable low-cost international telecommunications, diverse and inexpensive site locations, and strong government support. Drivers for success are being strengthened, while new reforms are also being sought to realize the high growth potential. A better industry legal framework requires retaining fiscal incentives, fixing labor legislation that makes it more difficult to compete in the global market, and reducing the high number of paid holidays which cost the industry tens of millions of dollars of unbudgeted expenses for every new holiday declared. The Labor Code should be amended to allow subcontracting and to make it easier to terminate employees.
Offshoring and Outsourcing Industry Revenues, BN US$, 2004-2016F
30 Revenues, lhs YOY growth, rhs 70% 60% 50% 40% 15 30% 10 20% 10% 0%

25

20

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2012

2016F

Sources: BPA/P

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Offshoring and Outsourcing Industry Employment, in 000, 2004-2016F


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2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

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2011

2012

2016F

Source: BPA/P
PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS: BUSINESS PROCESS OUTSOURCING

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

Creative Industries

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

CREATIVE INDUSTRIES
Creative industries are very diverse, including advertising, animation, architecture, broadcast arts, crafts, culinary arts, cultural/heritage activities, design, film, literature, music, new media, performing arts, content development, mobile TV, publishing, and visual arts. Filipinos enjoy a well-deserved reputation for creativity. However, to better understand the sector, Philippine Creative Industries should be mapped and developed. There are legal issues that work against full development, such as limiting the practice of foreign professionals, the ban on any foreign equity in media, and the limit of 25% foreign equity in advertising. The landmark Philippine Design Competitiveness Act of 2013 was enacted in 2013 to spur further development of the sector.

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Examples of Creative and Knowledge Workers, 2013


Clustered Industries Utilizing Creative Workers: Advertising Architecture Crafts Design Fashion Film and video Literature Music Performing and visual arts Publishing Television and radio Video and computer games Clustered Industries Utilizing Knowledge Workers: Business Process Outsourcing Engineering Design Financial Services Hardware and Systems Design Legal Services Medical and Healthcare Services Research and Development Consulting Services Software Development (non-entertainment Mobile Phone Applications) Website Development

Source: UNESCO-UNDP , Creative Economy Report: Special Edition [http://www.unesco.org/culture/pdf/creative-economyreport-2013.pdf] (New York: UN, 2013)

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS - INFRASTRUCTURE

Policy

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS INFRASTRUCTURE:

POLICY
"What we can expect in the years to come: airports and ports to facilitate commerce and tourism; roads to ensure that we all reap the maximum benefit from these big-ticket projects; power plants that will generate enough energy and fuel the development of industry. All the infrastructure projects that are being and will be constructed will give rise to a society teeming with opportunity. This is the framework from which other initiatives will branch out, creating even greater opportunities for Juan and Juana de la Cruz."
- State of the Nation Address of President Benigno S. Aquino III to the Congress of the Philippines, Batasang Pambansa Complex, Quezon City, July 22, 2013

What is wrong with Philippine infrastructure? To my mind, the problem boils down to three things: one, we dont have enough of them; two, they are not integrated and coordinated; and three, they are improperly distributed. As a result, our competitiveness as an economy is severely handicapped.
- Cielito Habito, economist, January 6, 2014, No Free Lunch: Our Infrastructure Handicap

The Philippines significantly underinvests in physical infrastructure, with spending averaging 2% to 3% of GDP for the last 10 years, far below regional norms. However, for the Aquino Administration, poor infrastructure is a key inhibitor to higher investment. In the WEF Global Competitiveness Report, the countrys overall infrastructure quality ranks below Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia and close to Vietnam. Arangkada contains lists of Quality of Overall Infrastructure Rankings, ASEAN-6, 2008-2014 major projects completed, 1 1 under construction, or 21 21 being financed as well as future projects all 41 41 Singapore Singapore from 2001 to 2020. Malaysia Malaysia 61 61 Thailand Recommendations concern Thailand Indonesia Indonesia overall infrastructure 81 81 Philippines Philippines policy and are followed Vietnam Vietnam 101 101 by specific sub-sections for Airport, Power, Roads 121 121 and Rail, Seaports, 141 141 Telecommunicaitons, and 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2012-13 2013-14 2013-14 Water. Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Reports;
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National Governments Infrastructure Spending and Other Capital Outlays, 1990-2013, Bn Php
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Other capital outlays, lhs Infrastructure, lhs Total capital outlays, % of GDP, rhs Infrastructure spending, %of GDP, rhs 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 5% 6%

Sources: DBM and authors calculations; Note: Other capital outlays include capital transfers to LGUs (20% of IRA allocation for development projects), special shares to LGUs and other capital outlay items not classified elsewhere but net of corp equity (all in obligation basis)

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Key Infrastructure Indicators, ASEAN-6, 2010-2012


Household electrification rate, 2010 Quality of electricity supply score (WEF) 2012 Paved Road Share of Share of Mobile Distribu- Main fixed roads density populapopulaphone tel lines tion losses as % of tion with Population tion with subs per per 100 as % of total road per km access to inhabit- 100 inhab- access to total net improved improved of road2, network2, itants, ants, 2011 gen2011 2011 sanitation, water 2011 eration1, sources, %, %, 2010 2010 2010

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

73.0 99.4 83.3 100.0 87.7 97.6

3.9 5.9 3.7 6.7 5.5 3.1

9.9 6.9 12.1 7.3 6.7 10.1

15.9 14.7 7.2 38.9 9.7 11.5

97.7 127.0 92.0 149.5 113.2 143.4

82.0 99.7 92.5 100.0 95.7 94.8

54.1 95.7 73.9 100.0 95.7 75.9

488 184 431 1,519 607 298

63.1 81.1 23.5 100.0 94.5 64.4

Sources: US EIA, ITU, WHO-UNICEF JMP , UN Stats Div, ASEAN-Japan Transport Partnership, ASEAN Secretariat, World Bank & authors calculations 1 - Derived using data from World Energy Outlook Database 2012 (IEA) 2 - This refers to the entire road network; Vietnam data - 2010

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS - INFRASTRUCTURE

Airports

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AIRPORTS
The past five years have been one of lost opportunities and meandering drift for most in the aviation business due to restrictive sanctions imposed on us. In many ways, CAAPs loss of credibility as a regulator among the international civil aviation community has affected the manner by which most of you have conducted and planned your operations... I say, innovation and diligence are the answers. We need to keep our sector, on average, at par with global norms and, at best, ahead of international standards.
- Director-General William Hotchkiss, Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) at the 1st Philippine Aviation Safety and Good Corporate Governance Symposium, Pasay City, August 30, 2013

for Airports cover (option 1)

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2010-139; 2012-144; 2013-148 Source: WEF 2011-142; Global Competitiveness Reports; Note: Number of countries evaluated - 2008-134; 2009-133; 2010-139; 2011-142; 2012-144; 2013-148.

With its archipelagic character, the Philippines depends on air and sea transport much more than continental countries do. Since affordable airfares have stimulated domestic tourism, Filipinos are flying in record numbers. But the Philippines does not build airport and terminal capacity before demand as do competing economies. New terminals and modern equipment are badly needed, as are more direct international flights to secondary cities. The absence of a modern international gateway airport restricts tourism, trade, and investment - in short, it is a major turnoff for international visitors. Clark and Subic have great potential for passenger and cargo operations. In many Asian airports - Beijing, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Seoul, and Singapore - terminal capacity is being increased. Quality of Air Infrastructure Rankings, ASEAN-6, ASEAN-6, 2008 to 2013 Quality ofTransport Air Transport Infrastructure Rankings, 2008 to 2013 Mumbai has 1 opened a spectacular US$2 21 billion terminal 41 at Chhatrapati Singapore S h i v a j i Malaysia 61 International Thailand Airport. The high 81 Indonesia standards being Vietnam 101 set by these Asian Philippines neighbors should 121 be emulated by 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 the Philippines. Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Reports; Note: Number of countries evaluated - 2008-134; 2009-133;

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Domestic Air Transport Passengers Domestic Air Transport Passengers, 1990-2013


21 14 7 0 -7 -14 -21 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%

Passengers, Mn Growth 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 2013 - H1

Source: CAB. 2013 figures are not comparable as they only cover H1.

Source: CAB. 2013 figures are not comparable as they only cover H1.

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Shenzhens new airport terminal Source: http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/28/5154484/baoan-international-airport-terminal-3-studio-fuksis-design

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS - INFRASTRUCTURE

Power

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS INFRASTRUCTURE:

POWER
Today many questions have been raised on whether EPIRA was a success. I submit that, while there has been a delay, a fair call is so far, so good. EPIRA has provided the framework for the restructuring of the Electric Power Industry, including privatization of National Power Corp.s assets, defining the responsibilities of various government agencies and the private sector, and transitioning to a functioning competitive structure. The end goal was to make sure we had an ample and reliable supply of electricity, at reasonable and competitive rates. A common complaint has been that under EPIRA, power rates have actually gone up faster, and that, as a consequence, we now have the highest power rates in the region. While it is true that our rates are higher than our neighbors, this is because substantial subsidies have been removed as mandated under EPIRA so that true cost of power is adhered to while our neighbors continue to subsidize. On the recent suspension of payments to Meralco and operators of Gencos -- this is a gift to the Filipino people as headlined only if the law of supply and demand has been suspended in the Philippine islands. What actually needs to be done is to de-risk the sector from political and regulatory uncertainty to make the market work and encourage more investments, yielding more competition, ample supply and reasonable, less volatile tariffs.
- Romeo L. Bernardo, BusinessWorld, January 26, 2014

The Philippines is completing a decade-long transition from an inefficient public sector power generation monopoly to a private sector-led open access competitive environment with enhanced regulatory oversight. Electricity prices are among the highest in Asia and there are actual or potential supply shortages in all three grids. Unreliable, expensive electric power is a major deterrent to investment. Under the open access policy, rates in the medium term should go down after more efficient generating plants are commissioned that are profitable at lower costs. With the five conditions precedent to open access met, the longawaited reform began in mid-2013. However, only one large baseload plant

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

has opened in Luzon in the the last decade. Underinvestment in power is likely to continue unless there is a clear and stable energy policy, without legislative or judicial interference. Blackouts could occur in Luzon if more plants are not built soon. Renewable energy and nuclear technology offer excellent prospects for diversifying power sources. It is essential that the transmission and distribution network expands in line with generation and growth in demand.

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Not Ongoing

No Longer Relevant

Started

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Started

Backward/Regression

Started

Installed Generating Capacity, 2012


Natural Gas, 16.8% Non-conventional, 0.9%

Power Generation by Source, 2012


Natural Gas, 26.9% Oil-Thermal, 1.0% Diesel, 0.5% GasTurbines, 0.3%

Diesel/Oil, 18.1%
Non-conventional, 0.4%

Hydro, 14.1%

Coal, 32.7%

Geothermal, 14.1%

Hydro, 20.7%
Coal, 38.8%

Geothermal, 10.9%

Source: DOE

Source: DOE

PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS: INFRASTRUCTURE: POWER

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2011 Rating

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No Longer Relevant

Backward/Regression

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Started

Started

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Backward/Regression

Backward/Regression

Not Ongoing

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No Longer Relevant

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77

Estimated subsidy Paid by consumers

2011 Rating
Estonia Malaysia Thailand Bulgaria US (average) South Korea Taipei, China Indonesia South Africa

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Started

Average Retail Electricity Tariffs, June 2012, Selected Asian Countries, USc/kWh
30 Estimated subsidy 25 20 15 10 5 0 Paid by consumers

Japan Philippines, Singapore Sri Lanka Hong Kong, Malaysia (Kansai) Manila China

Thailand

South Korea

Taipei, China

Indonesia

Source: DOE

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

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Required reserve margin and peak demand estimates, Luzon, in MW


18000 16500 15000 13500 2015 2014 2013 Projects Projects 12000 Projects 10500 9000 7500 6000 4500 3000 1500 0 2017 Projects Peak demand Required reserve margin

Required Reserve Margin and Peak Demand Estimates, Luzon, in MW, 2013-2030
Available Capacity Available Capacity + Commited Projects

Fig76 - Updated
Started

Started

Source: Note: 2013 Projects (Mariveles Bataan Expansion Project Phase 2(600MW) in May, Maibarara in Oct), Source: DOE; DOE; Note: 2013 Projects (Mariveles Bataan Expansion Project Phase 2(600MW) in May, Maibarara Geo (20MW) in Geo Oct), (20MW) 2014 Projects ( 2014 Putting Bato Phase 1 (135MW) in (135MW) Aug, Pililia Wind (67MW) in Wind Sept, SJCI Biomass (9.9MW) inBiomass Nov, Southwest Luzon (150MW) in Dec), 2015 Projects Projects (Putting Bato Phase 1 in Aug, Pililia (67MW) in Sept, SJCI (9.9MW) in 1 Nov, Southwest Luzon 1 (150MW) (Southwest Luzon 2 (150MW) in Mar, Luzon Isabela 2 Biomass (20MW) in Mar, Putting Bato Phase 2 (135MW) in Nov); 2017 Projects Bataan in Dec), 2015 Projects (Southwest (150MW) in Mar, Isabela Biomass (20MW) in Mar, Putting Bato Phase(Mariveles 2 (135MW) in Nov); 2017 Expansion Project Phase 2(600MW) in Dec) Projects (Mariveles Bataan Expansion Project Phase 2(600MW) in Dec)

PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS: INFRASTRUCTURE: POWER

79

Required reserve margin and peak demand estimates, Visayas, in MW, 2013-2030
Peak demand 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2016 2014 2015 Projects Projects Projects Required reserve margin Available Capacity

Required Reserve Margin and Peak Demand Estimates, Visayas, in MW, 2013-2030
Available Capacity + Commited Projects

Source: DOE; Note: 2014 2014 Projects (Villasiga(Villasiga HEP (8MW) in Mar, Nasuloin Geo (50MW) in Jun, Toledo Expansion MW in Sept), 2015 Projects (Sn. Source: DOE; Note: Projects HEP (8MW) Mar, Nasulo Geo (50MW) in (82) Jun, Toledo Expansion (82) MW in Sept), 2015 Projects Biomass (16MW) in 2016 Mar,Projects ASIAN (Concepcion Biomass (3.6MW) in Jun), 2016 Projects (Concepcion Carlos Biomass (16MW) in(Sn. Mar, Carlos ASIAN Biomass (3.6MW) in Jun), Coal 1 (135MW) in Jul, Concepcion Coal 2 (135MW) in Coal 1 (135MW) in Jul, Concepcion Coal 2 (135MW) in Sept) Sept)

Required Reserve Margin and Peak Demand Estimates, Mndanao, in MW, 2013-2030 Required reserve margin and peak demand estimates, Mndanao, in MW, 2013-2030
Peak demand 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2015 Projects 2016 Project Required reserve margin Available Capacity Available Capacity + Commited Projects

Fig80- Updated

2013 Projects

Source: DOE; Note: 2013 2013 Projects (EEI HFO(EEI (15MW) in Aug, Mapadalad (15MW) in Oct), 2015 Projects (Therma South (300MW) in Mar, (Therma Sarangani Coal Source: DOE; Note: Projects HFO (15MW) in Aug, Mapadalad (15MW) in Oct), 2015 Projects South (200MW) in in Sep), 2016 Project (Mt Coal Apo (50MW) in Jun)in Sep), 2016 Project (Mt Apo (50MW) in Jun) (300MW) Mar, Sarangani (200MW)

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS - INFRASTRUCTURE

Roads and Rails

Recommendations: 9
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 2 Improved Rating: 1 1


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 4

Declined

6 2 1

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS INFRASTRUCTURE:

ROADS AND RAILS


Rush hour, 5:30 p.m. Ayala MRT [Metro Rail Transit] station, north-bound. Queue 15 minutes to turnstiles. 10 Minutes wait and then one train comes, too crowded, only five people in front of me get in. Next train after five minutes, but announcement is made: train is defective, no passengers can ride. Wait for next train. Comes after three minutes. Meanwhile the platform is bursting with people because trains come too few and far between. I finally get in. Ride to Cubao takes 12 minutes. MRT is such a MESS! Fix those trains, add at least another five more per hour between 5 and 7 p.m., both directions.
- Carol Singson, Veteran MRT-3 commuter

Modern, efficient ground transportation infrastructure facilitates the efficient movement of goods and people, while its absence increases transport cost and ultimately harms country competitiveness. Unfortunately, this race to improve public transport before traffic gridlock worsens is being lost. Although DPWH greatly increased its budget in the final years of the previous administration, too much went into barangay roads built for political purposes. Meanwhile, the national road network barely increased in two decades as traffic on national roads multiplied. The current Administration has corrected this and is implementing an ambitious national highway and bridge program. There are seven limited-access toll roads operating or under construction, all in Central Luzon, totaling some 300 kilometers. Another 300 kilometers are planned by 2020. This acceleration of road investments led to a sharp improvement in the Philippine rank in the WEF quality of roads ranking, from the lowest of the ASEAN-6 in 2009-10 to 4th in 2012-2013 and 5th in 20132014. The Philippines ranks a distant last among the ASEAN-6 for the WEF quality of railroad infrastructure. There is only one heavy rail line in operation. DOTC has sought unsuccessfully for two decades to restore rail service north of Manila; the PRC-supported North Rail project turned into a major white elephant. Three light rail lines operate in Metro Manila, often at overcapacity. Planned new lines take a decade or more to implement. The current Administration is unlikely to see any new rail project, which it initiated, completed during its term. If this slow pace of implementation continues, the urban centers will become increasingly choked and unattractive to private sector investment.

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2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

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83

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Completed

Completed

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Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

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Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

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Started

Started

Substantial Progress

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2013 Rating

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Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

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2011 Rating

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Not Ongoing

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DPWHs Budget and Actual Spending, 2005-2013p


Budget, lhs 200 Budget expenditure, lhs DPWH budget, % of national, rhs DPWH budget spending, % of national, rhs 150 10% 8% 100 16% 14% 12%

6%
4% 2% 0 0%

50

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013p

Source: DBM (Total obligations; Adjusted-Budget; Actual-Expenditure)

Quality of Roads Rankings , ASEAN-6, 2008-2014


1

21

41 Singapore 61 Malaysia Thailand 81 Philippines Indonesia Vietnam

101

121

141

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Reports; Note: Number of countries evaluated - 2008-134; 2009-133; 2010139; 2011-142; 2012-144; 2013-148.

Light Rail Ridership (LRT-1, MRT-2 & MRT-3), 2002-2012


180 160 140 120 100
LRT-2 LRT-1 MRT-3 Total YOY growth,rhs

60% 50% 40% 30%

80 60 40 20 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

20% 10% 0%

Sources: LRTA and Metrostar Express; Note: MRT-2 and MRT-3 only started operating in April 2003 and December 1999, respectively. Latest data available for MRT is only from February to April 2012. PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS: INFRASTRUCTURE: ROADS AND RAILS

87

Following is an assessment, separate of the original recommendations in Arangkada, that provides more detailed recommendations on Institutional Reforms and Railway Expansion projects for the rail sector. This assessment compliments the infrastructure subsection Roads & Rails.
PARAMETER/INDICATOR
Institutional Reforms 1.1 Organization of a railway regulatory authority A recommendation of the 1997 Philippine Transport Strategy Study and 1999 Transport Infrastructure and Capacity Development Study, both funded by ADB. DOTC invited consultancy proposals in March 2013; nothing has been heard since. Detailed recommendations from the 2009 JICA Study, discussed and accepted by inter-agency technical committee. No action since then. The Php1.5 Billion capitalization of PNR, set in 1975, is inadequate and impaired by years of losses. Fares on rails have been stagnant since 2003. Three attempts proposed since 2011 were rejected by the President. This would have negative impact on rail PPPs. Public consultations announced December 2013. Several Bills have been filed (and refilled) in Congress in the last 15 years. None has moved beyond 2nd reading. One of the low-hanging fruits proposed for immediate execution in 2010. Failure of bidding in October 2013. DOTC has set new bid submission for April 2014. Delayed by 16 months, based on original schedule. Award to sole pre-qualified engineering firm reset to December 2013, more than 6 months behind schedule. Budget for new railway cars released in November 2011 and awarded to a Chinese rail manufacturer, the sole bidder selected by DOTC, made in October 2013, for 48 additional railcars. This was supposed to be phase 2 of the north-south rail linkage project funded via Korean ExIm Bank. Phase 1 was completed in 2009. No action made in last 3 years. This was the Northrail project whose contract with Sinomach was terminated in 2012. Arbitration proceedings are in a snail pace mode. Reconfiguration to pure commuter line is on hold. Five pre-qualified firms have submitted bids in November 2013. The contract was awarded in January 2014, 6 months behind original timetable. Several packages were to be tendered by LRTA - starting January 2012. DOTC took over responsibility. Two packages that were awarded were declared illegal. Scope now folded into the LRT-1 Extension to Cavite. This refers to the common station to serve platform transfers of passengers. Issue has been debated fo 3 years. Decision made in November 2013, bid award for construction is Q2 2014, according to DOTC. Construction was supposed to be in January 2013 but was put on hold pending proof-of-concept by DOTC. Nothing has been heard since. In November 2013, NEDA approved issuance of performance guarantee (equivalent to a financial guarantee) to concessionaire. Contract was signed in 2009, but no financial closing was possible without the guarantee. 0 = No activity +1

PROGRESS/ACCOMPLISHMENTS

RATING

1.2

Financial restructuring of Light Rail Transit Authority Re-capitalization of the Philippine National Railways Fare adjustments relative to other transport modes

1.3 1.4

0 +1

1.5

Legislation on railway reforms Railway Expansion

2.1

LRT-1 Extension to Cavite, approx. 12-km length. Three previous attempts failed LRT-2 Extension to East. approx 4 km without ROW problem Additional Railcars for MRT-3

-1

2.2 2.3

-1 +1

2.4

Rehab and improvement of PNR South Commuter to Calamba Construction of the MalolosTutuban (North) Commuter Line Common Ticketing System for All Railway Lines Rehabilitation of existing LRT-1 assets (cars, tracks, power lines) Completion of MRT3-LRT1 Linkage

2.5

2.6

+1

2.7

-1

2.8

+1

2.9

Construction of Metro Cebu BRT System Construction of MRT-7 on Commonwealth Avenue

2.10

+1

Notes on Rating: -1 = Retrogress

+1 = Some progress or Movements

Best score is +5

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ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS - INFRASTRUCTURE

Seaports

Recommendations: 20
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 5 Improved Rating: 0 9


No Longer Relevant Started

5 1 1

Declined

10 9 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS INFRASTRUCTURE:

SEAPORTS
Because the archipelagic Philippines depends on seaports to move most domestic and international commerce, efficiency of marine transport is critical to national competitiveness. Its high cost has long been an impediment to more commerce. Tourism growth is also influenced by seaport quality. Improving maritime safety is important given the high loss of life from long-standing negligence of ship owners and government agencies. The volume of international container shipments is small compared to Asias larger export economies and the lowest of the ASEAN-6. Although it has improved in the past two years, the Philippines ranks 116th of 148 countries in Quality of Port Infrastructure of the WEF Global Competitiveness Reportthe lowest among the ASEAN-6 countries. Manila ranked 35th worldwide in tonnage volume and 26th in container traffic. Over the last decade, there have been significant investments in the international ports of Batangas, Davao, PHIVIDEC, and Subic, almost doubling their combined capacity. Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh have capped their old city ports in favor of new deep-water ports. Manila remains the most congested port, and Batangas and Subic remain underutilized. The RoRo Nautical Highway, with three routes connecting Luzon-Visayas-Mindanao, can be expanded and made more efficient. Regional ports need modernization with feeder links.
Quality of Port Rankings, ASEAN-6, 2008-2014
1 21 41
Singapore

61 81 101 121 141

Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam

Philippines

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Reports; Note: Number of countries evaluated 2008-134; 2009-133; 2010-139; 2011-142; 2012-144; 2013-148.

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Not Ongoing

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Substantial Progress

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Not Ongoing

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95

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Started

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Not Ongoing

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97

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99

2011 Rating

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100 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS - INFRASTRUCTURE

Telecommunications

Recommendations: 25
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 1 Improved Rating: 0 4


No Longer Relevant Started

2 0 0

Declined

8 7 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS INFRASTRUCTURE:

TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Reform in this area has been considered. In a decade, Philippine telecommunications advanced from being monopolistic, high-cost, and inefficient to having considerable competition, enabling a majority of the population and businesses to communicate at home and abroad at much reduced cost. While fixed line penetration is lowest of the ASEAN- , mobile phone penetration is high ( ), and digital fiber connections are robust. However, the percentage of Internet use, which stood at . of the population in , remains a challenge. Broadband Internet is also very limited, with fixed broadband penetration at only for every persons and mobile broadband at for every persons. Only of cities and municipalities in the country have broadband access (Broadband Commission, ). The next new technology for the country is high-speed wireless broadband. Within a few years, many millions can have cheap Internet access on G and G mobile phones. The benefit for national competitiveness from these changes could be considerable. Filipinos will be able to avail of global SMS, email, and Internet on mobile devices and leap over the low household computer penetration level (ITU statistics, ). In the UN E-Governance Readiness Survey, Philippine ranking has been declining from in to in (UN E-Government Survey, ). For ICT, two non-fiscal laws (Data Privacy and Anti-Cybercrime) have been enacted, while the DICT law, despite advancing near final passage in the th Congress, was opposed by the Executive.

102 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

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Not Ongoing

Started

Started

Access to Information and Communication Technology Indicators, Selected Countries, 2012


Population, in mn Main fixed tel lines, mn Mobile Main ProporProporMobile Estimatphone fixed tel tion of tion of phone ed total lines per subscrip- subs per househouseinternet 100 in- tion, mn1 100 in- holds with holds with users, mn habitants computer internet habitants
20.6 2.5 15.5 15.7 4.1 37.8 9.1 11.4 1112.2 864.7 282.0 41.3 103.0 8.1 85.0 134.1 81.3 68.7 115.2 140.9 106.8 153.4 120.3 149.4 88% 67% 41% 27% 18% 17% 15% 11% 88% 65% 37% 19% 16% 18% 7% 10% 571.3 155.6 37.9 19.2 35.0 3.9 18.5 35.1

Internet users per 100 inhabitants


42.3 12.6 15.4 65.8 36.2 74.2 26.5 39.5

China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

1350.7 1236.7 246.9 29.2 96.7 5.3 69.8 88.8

278.2 30.9 38.3 4.6 4.0 2.0 6.4 10.1

Sources: ITU and World Bank (population) Notes: 1 - Includes both pre-paid and post-paid accounts

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104 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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Estimated Number of Internet Users, per 100 Inhabitants, 1998-2012

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Singapore Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Indonesia

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sources: UN and ITU

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UN e-Governance Readiness, Percentile Rankings, 2003-2012


100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2008 2010 2012

Sources: UN Public Administration Programme and authors calculations

Singapore

Malaysia

Vietnam

Philippines

Thailand

Indonesia

106 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

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Not Ongoing

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Not Ongoing

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107

Mobile Phone Subscriptions, in Millions, 1998-2012


300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Malaysia Singapore

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Sources: UN and ITU

108 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2012

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS - INFRASTRUCTURE

Water

Recommendations: 9
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 1 Improved Rating: 0 8


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 0

Declined

8 1 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

109

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS INFRASTRUCTURE:

WATER
Water, water, everywhere... Nor any drop to drink.
- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, The Rime of the Ancient Mariner

Freshwater needs will grow by 20% in mature economies and by 50% in new economies by 2025. As populations grow and cities expand, it is essential to prevent flooding and provide clean and affordable water for consumption. Cities are where water is not always available but where people need it. Cities need to make their water smarter, more efficient, safe and available.
- Schneider Electric, 2013

The Philippines is endowed with abundant water resources, but is currently confronted with difficulties in meeting its water needs, expansion of capacity, and connecting poor households to the water supply system. Rapid population growth, economic development, urbanization, and industrialization have taken their toll on the countrys water services and resource base. The problem, moreover, extends to other quality of life dimensions: deficiencies in water resource management, water supply and sanitation services, solid waste and wastewater management impact on water quality and peoples health.
- Philippine Water Supply Sector Roadmap

Dependable supply and distribution of water for cities and agriculture is critical for growth and everyday life. The Philippines is challenged to store and deliver sufficient water and dispose of wastewater without damaging the environment and public health. Prospective investors note the lack of an economic regulator and the inadequate capacity of a resource regulator. Disrespect for contracts in Laguna Lake and the MWSS concessionaires highlights risks for private firms. There is a need for an Executive Order and eventually a Water Reform Act to create an institutional and legal framework to guide private and public cooperation in developing water sources. The present framework of some 30 agencies with varying jurisdictions must be rationalized, as it discourages new entrants. The supply situation in Metro Manila and eight other urban centers have been described as critical. Immediate solutions to cope with anticipated water deficits should be identified and implemented. Angat Dam currently supplies 97% of Metro Manilas water supply and water for irrigation and power. Additional dams are needed very soon, both Laiban and smaller ones, but the obstacle is the seeming lack of urgency to pursue
110 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

the development of alternative water sources for Metro Manila. The ideal option is to bid out such projects; some progress is expected in 2014. DPWH has a long-term Php350 billion flood control plan for the NCR. Despite being the biggest consumer of water, the agriculture sector does not pay irrigation fees. Public sector irrigation systems, while poorly maintained and inadequate, are being improved, but privatization is impractical in the absence of increased farmer productivity. Flooding is common in deforested and low-lying areas of the archipelago and is worsening with uncontrolled urbanization and climate change.

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112 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS: INFRASTRUCTURE: WATER

115

Regional Water Supply/Demand Situation: 2005-2025 (in TCM)

Source: Tabios, G. and R. Villaluna. (2011). Status, Challenges and Proposed National Water Management Superbody for the Philippine Water Resources Sector Development Plan.
1

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

Manufacturing

Recommendations: 17
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 5 Improved Rating: 0 9


No Longer Relevant Started

4 3 4

Declined

8 1 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

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MANUFACTURING
From a lackluster average annual growth of 3% in 2004 to 2009, manufacturing output has surged at an average of 7.5% in the last three years. If this keeps up, we may yet resume the industrialization that we missed in the last two decades as China assumed the role of factory of the worlda role now compromised by rapidly rising wages. (TAPP note: Manufacturing surged even faster in 2013 by 10.5%)
- Cielito F. Habito, PhD, Economist and former NEDA Secretary, Philippine Daily Inquirer , February 5, 2013

Asias developed economies had strong growth from their industrial sectors and large shifts of agriculture and services workers into manufacturing and exports. This has yet to take place in the Philippines, which has benefitted less than Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam from the globalization of trade and manufacturing. Unlike these four economies, which are strong exporters, for the Philippines its exports percentage of GDP has been falling, from 51% in 2000 to 31% in 2012. Without electronics, exports of manufactured goods would have grown very slowly as garments exports have severely contracted. Another industry subsector declining in recent years is automotive manufacturing, undermined by used car imports and the higher cost of local car assembly. The high percentage of exports made up of electronics is a failure to develop a diversified mix of manufactured exports. This create risks should the viability of electronics manufacturing decline. Domestic manufacturing faces many challenges, such as high business costs, low import duties, and extensive technical smuggling. As long as smuggling provides better profits than manufacturing, the economy will be one of traders and smugglers rather than manufacturers. When Arangkada was drafted, there was no strong, unifying policy that manufacturing is a key component of economic and technological development. Since then, almost 30 industry roadmaps have been drafted, and DTI is making an increasing commitment to their success.

118 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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Manufacturing Value and Volume of Production Index, Average YOY Growth Rate, 2007-Nov 2013
30.00 25.00 VaPI VoPI

20.00
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10.00
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Distribution of Manufacturing GVA by Subsector, 2013


Others, 11.9% Non-metallic mineral products, 2.8% Basic and other metal products, 2.9% Textile and wearing apparel, 5.1% Food and Beverage, 48.6% Chemical & chemical products, 11.5%

Petroleum and other fuel products, 5.7% Radio, television & communication equipment, 11.6%

Source: NSCB

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Manufacturing GVA, BN Php, 1990-2013


2400 1800 1200 600 0 -600 -1200
Value, current prices, lhs YOY growth, rhs

16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8%

Source: NSCB; Old series (1997-back) New series (1998-onwards). No YOY growth provided between 1997-98 due to change in series.

Industry Sector Distribution per Segment, 2013


Construction, 20.0%

Electricity,Gas and Water Supply, 11.3% Manufacturing, 65.6% Mining & Quarrying, 3.1%

Source: NSCB

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125

Manufacturing Labor Productivity, mfg GVA per Person Engaged (Constant 2005 $US)
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Singapore, lhs

25,000

Malaysia, rhs
Thailand, rhs Philippines, rhs Indonesia, rhs Vietnam, rhs 20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Sources: UNSD (GVA); ADB & ILO (Labor) and authors calculations

Manufacturing Labor Productivity Index (1980=100)


900
800 700 Singapore Malaysia Indonesia

600
500 400 300 200 100

Thailand
Vietnam Philippines

Source:s ILO, UNSD, ADB and authors calculations Notes: This is based on Mfg GVA per person engaged at constant 2005 $US, This measure shows the level of productivity changed relative to 1980 level.

126 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
For further reading: http://www.investphilippines.info/arangkada/manufacturing-policy-brief/

rd

ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

Logistics

Recommendations: 22
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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

LOGISTICS
We are trying to restrain government intervention but we might just have to come into this in a calculated manner...We are calibrating our way and talking with all stakeholders so that they are aware if this is going to hit them and they can prepare.
- DOTC Secretary Joseph Emilio A. Abaya on plans to decongest Manila seaports, April 29, 2013

Batangas and Subic have highly underutilized port infrastructure that can lower international shipping costs for CALABARZON and support an Asian regional freeport at Subic, respectively. Batangas is slowly being connected to the feeder ports of Singapore and Kaohsiung. The country is well located for storage and distribution of goods to Asia, North America, and to Europe through the Middle East. The Subic-Clark-Tarlac Corridor, if Subic is a true freeport, could create a regional distribution hub with cost advantages over the other Asian freeports of Singapore and Hong Kong. Container export cargo should begin transfering to Batangas and Subic to reduce traffic and port congestion in Manila. A GPH decision is needed to cap international cargo at Manila. Turning Subic into a real freeport means allowing traded goods to enter and leave uncontrolled, except for controlled egress into Philippine customs territory. Using available air capacity of Middle East carriers, the Philippines is well located to act as a sea-air or air-air transshipment hub to the Middle East. Customs, Immigration, and Quarantine (CIQ) overtime charges have been removed, while other logistic costs should be rationalized and reduced. Logistics operations should be opened more to international investors. Cargo deconsolidation should be allowed at PEZA bonded warehouses. Product transformation in the Philippines would enable tax and duty free distribution in ASEAN. Facilitate Importer of Record (IOR) services for Internet sales fulfillment. It is about 40% cheaper to transship a container from Manila to Cagayan de Oro via Hong Kong or Kaohsiung than to ship directly from Manila. Foreign companies are not allowed to provide domestic maritime transport services. The domestic shipping industry is not competitive due to the predominant use of small ships and heavy taxes and regulatory restrictions.

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TEU Capacity and Utilization, Ports of Batangas, Manila, and Subic, 2001 to 2013
Capacity
Manila International Container Terminal Subic Bay International Terminal Corp. (NCT-1, NCT-2) Batangas International Port 400,000 16,800 4.2 2013 2,500,000 600,000

Traffic
1,826,000 33,600

Utilization rate, %
73.0 5.6

Year
2012 2011

Sources: DOTC, PPA, www.mictweb.com, www.sbma.com, www.asianterminals.com.ph, PAC-Atlantis Group. Note: Data include domestic and international cargo traffic

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

Mining

Recommendations: 32
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MINING
SECTION 4. Grant of Mineral Agreements Pending New Legislation. No new mineral agreements shall be entered into until a legislation rationalizing existing revenue sharing schemes and mechanisms shall have taken effect. The DENR may continue to grant and issue Exploration Permits under existing laws, rules and guidelines.
- Executive Order No. 79, July 6, 2012.

With an estimated $1.4 trillion in reserves, Philippine mining potential ranks fifth in the world, covering an estimated 9 million hectares, but less than 2% of these have mining permits. After long stagnation, the sector began coming back after a 2005 SC decision affirming RA 7942, considered a world-class legal framework for sustainable development. Minerals development should be a government priority and has great potential for jobs and revenue. Government has identified over 60 priority PPP mining projects. Mining can support poor rural areas through high quality jobs, local tax payments, and community development. The national government receives substantial royalty and tax payments. Government revenue from mining has more than doubled to PhP 22.2 billion in 2011 from PhP 10.4 billion in 2007. Full development of the sector, however, continues to face significant challenges. Lengthy tedious approvals for Exploration Permits (EPs) continue to impede investment. Several LGUs have closed their provinces to mining. Industry is concerned that the Writ of Kalikasan might disturb lawful activities. An investor cannot tell easily if land is ancestral land. Skilled Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) personnel often leave public service. EO 79 has imposed a moratorium on new mining permits, pending the passage of a new law on the revenue sharing scheme between industry and government. Designation of no-go areas may undervalue areas closed to mining for minor tourist or agricultural value. The immediate future for the growth of the mining sector is not positive.

138 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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Mining and Quarrying Gross Value Added (GVA), 1990-2003


160
Gross Value Added YOY Growth, rhs 80%

120

60%

80

40%

40

20%

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-20%

Source: NSCB; Old series (1997-back) New series (1998-onwards)

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Mineral Products Exports , 1990-Nov 2013


4.0 Value, in Bn US$, lhs 3.0 Series2 150% 200%

2.0

100%

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50%

0.0

0%

-1.0

-50%

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Source: NSO

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Mining Goods Exports Distribution, Jan-Nov 2013


Iron Ore Agglomerates, 3.3% Gold, 2.2% Chromium Ore, 0.5%

Copper Metal, 19.9%

Others, 60.6%

Copper Concentrates, 13.6%


Source: NSO

PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS: MINING

145

Share in ASEAN-6 Total Mineral Products Exports, 1995-2012

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Indonesia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Philippines Vietnam

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: UNCTAD; Includes ores, metals, precious stones and non-monetary gold

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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

Tourism, Medical Travel, and Retirement

Recommendations: 32
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PART 3 SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS

TOURISM, MEDICAL TRAVEL, AND RETIREMENT


"You don't get on the radar unless you dress up for the party...This is the paradigm shift in tourism. We are determined to be competitive."
- DOT Secretary Ramon R. Jimenez, Jr. at the 2013 Arangkada Philippines Forum, Makati City, February 26, 2013

Tourism can have strong poverty reduction and job creation effects. For every foreign tourist that spends US$1,000, one Filipino job for one year is supported. The range of direct and indirect income effects on tourism is enormous, involving agriculture, industry, and services. Travel and tourism is currently the fourth largest source of foreign exchange reveues in the Philippines. International arrivals were already up by 11.2% to 3.867 million for January to October 2013 from the same period last year. Hopefully, this means the Philippines cornered a larger share of tourist arrivals to Southeast Asia compared to 2011 when only about 4% of 81 million international tourists visited the Philippines. Domestic travel, the backbone of Philippine tourism, is resilient during times of external vulnerabilities and reached 20.6 million in 2012 and was already at 10.8 in the first half of 2013. Medical travel and retirement by foreign nationals are subsectors where the Philppines has high Figure 132. Distribution per Country of International Tourist Arrivals in potential for success. These are Distribution the ASEAN Region, 2011 per Country of International Tourist Arrivals high yield markets since visitors in the ASEAN Region, 2011 stay longer and spend more. Thailand, 23.5% The government has offered a Vietnam, 7.4% foreign retiree program for several Brunei Darussalam, decades, and in recent years the 0.3% Cambodia, 3.5% number of new participants has increased to 2,000-3,000 a year. Singapore, 16.2% The low cost of living, excellent Indonesia, 9.4% weather, world-class medical care, recreational options, and warmth of Lao PDR, 3.4% Filipinos are plus factors supporting Philippines, 4.8% the high potential of the retirement Myanmar, 1.0% subsector. The key to unlocking the job creation potential of tourism Malaysia, 30.4% is investment mobilization by both Source: ASEAN Secretariat Source: ASEAN Secretariat public and private sectors.

F132

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155

Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Indicators, Philippines, 2007-2013, Rank


Category
Overall country ranking T&T regulatory framework Policy rules and regulations Property rights Business impact of rules on FDI Time required to start a business Cost to start a business T&T Business environment and infrastructure Air transport infrastructure Quality of airport infrastructure Airport density International air transport network Ground transport infrastructure Quality of roads Quality of railroad infrastructure Quality of port infrastructure Quality of ground transport network Tourism infrastructure Price competitiveness Tickets and airport charges Extent and effect of taxation Hotel price index Total Number of countries evaluated

2007
86 80 61 70 78 --79 72 76 94 62 91 86 96 87 92 93 7 14 40 -124

2008
81 83 58 75 92 106 83 84 72 62 79 65 85 91 86 102 74 97 9 17 57 9 130

2009
86 85 72 92 97 114 94 89 73 89 86 76 90 94 85 100 115 96 16 17 65 12 133

2011
94 98 70 99 98 111 101 95 90 112 87 83 114 114 97 131 131 98 20 20 77 15 139

2013
82 79 53 83 103 94 15 89 69 110 88 88 89 86 92 118 115 92 24 17 54 36 140

Source: WEF, Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Reports

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Estimated Economic and Employment Contribution of Travel and Tourism Industry, Figure 136. Estimated Economic and Employment Contribution of Travel 1990-2012 and Tourism Industry, 1990-2012
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Direct economic contribution, Bn US$, lhs Total economic contribution, Bn US$, lhs Direct employment contribution, million, rhs Total employment contribution, million, rhs 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0

1.0
0.0

Source: WTTC; Updated and revised series Source: WTTC; Updated and revised series

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163

Figure 133. Government's Travel & Tourism Expenditure, ASEAN-6, 1990-2012, Bn US$
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Indonesia Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia

Governments Travel and Tourism Expenditure, ASEAN-6, 1990-2012, Bn US$

Vietnam

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: WTTC; Updated and revised series


Source: WTTC; Updated and revised series

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164 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Business Costs

Recommendations: 16
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

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PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

BUSINESS COSTS
Ill-conceived was President Aquinos declaration today, Chinese New Year, as a public holiday. Congress already set the national holidays in a 2007 law. There are already too many in that RA 9492: 16 days a year. Thats 16 days of no-work-no-pay for majority daily-wage earners, while factory owners must pay employees double for the same work. Thats 16 stay-home days for schoolchildren, apart from when theres storm, flood, or local holiday.
- Jarius Bondoc, The Philippine Star, January 31, 2014

According to a recent USAID study, the fastest growing component of electricity rates is taxes -- zoomed by a compound annual growth rate of 65% from 2004-11. Once stripped of this and other adjustments, electricity rates only grew by 5.3% annually during this period, around the same as general inflation and cost of fuel. That is to say, tariffs net of taxes stayed constant in real terms, and for many under open access, actually dropped. For example, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have large oil and natural gas deposits and do not charge royalty on local sales. In contrast, the Philippines collects a royalty of about Php1.46 per KWH of our own natural gas... Boo Chanco estimated that around Php3 of the average Meralco electricity charge is on account of government take.
- Romeo L. Bernardo, BusinessWorld, January 26, 2014

Php2.4-BILLION TRAFFIC Congested streets and traffic jams cost the country as much as Php2.4 billion a day in lost productivity and potential income, according to a study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency. Jica has been tapped by the government to come up with a transportation development road map for the Philippines. JOAN BONDOC

Competitive business costs in the Philippines are important to both domestic and foreign investors, more so with globalization and the approach of the AEC. Since 2006, the IFC has ranked global economies on factors related to the ease of doing business. Of the ASEAN-6, the Philippines was the lowest ranked for five years but moved up to pass Indonesia in 2013 and just below Vietnam. This subsection includes the following. (1) Minimum wages: they are higher in the Philippines than in several competing regional economies. (2) Holidays: the Philippines had the highest number (21 days) among the ASEAN-6 economies in 2010. (3) Office rentals:

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Manila is a relative bargain. (4) Power costs: at least twice as much as competing economies, which subsidize electricity. (5) Telecommunications costs: including broadband are higher than other ASEAN-6 economies, China, and India. (6) Transportation: poor public transport, heavy traffic, dilapidated ports, government taxes and rules, and small ships make ground and inland marine transport inefficient and costly; domestic air for both passengers and cargo is inexpensive. (7) Red tape: the Philippines has a reputation for excessive and corrupt bureaucratic impositions. In the 2012-2013 WEF Global Competitiveness Reports measure of the Burden of Government Regulation, the Philippines ranked 108th of 144 countries, 5th of the ASEAN-6. For Burden of Customs procedures, it ranked 126th of 144 countries and the lowest of ASEAN-6. (8) Expatriate living costs: the Philippines compares well. Manila is one of the least expensive major cities in Asia.

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Total Wage (%),2012-2013 2012-2013 Total wageIncrease increase Rates rates (%),
Indonesia Myanmar Pakistan Vietnam India Bangla China Cambo Thailand Malaysia 6.4 5.4 5.0 4.3 4.2 3.8 2.4 5 10 15 20 25 30 9.2 9.0 10.4

24.7 12.8
12.3 12.1 11.5

Philippi Korea Hong Singap


Taiwan 0 Source : JETRO Source: JETRO

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Burden of government regulation, rank, 2009-2014


1 21 41 Singapore Malaysia

61
81 101 121 141

Indonesia
Thailand Philippines

Vietnam

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF ; Total number of countries evaluated: 2009 (133), 2010 (139), 2011 (143); 2012(144)

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PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Environment and Natural Disasters

Recommendations: 14
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active Dormant

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ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL DISASTERS


"Extreme or unusual weather is the new normal; there is no excuse not to prepare for it. The weather disturbance that was Agatona low-pressure area that developed into the years first tropical depression, and then after three days weakened into an LPA againis more proof that weather patterns are changing. Our disaster response strategies must change as well. "
- Philippine Daily Inquirer editorial, January 22, 2014

The Philippine environment has been under assault for decades from a fast-growing population and practices that degrade the countrys air, land, and water. Over half the countrys population live in urban areas, where polluted air is a silent killer and solid waste management and sanitation are highly inadequate. There has been growing recognition of problems such bad habits have created and an increasing desire to introduce sound practices. With inadequate disposal capacity, Metro Manila faces a solid waste crisis. Despite passage of the Clean Air Act, vehicles spewing noxious fumes still ply Metro Manilas streets due to weak enforcement. However, over half of the 30,000+ taxis in Metro Manila have converted to LPG, and La Mesa watershed has been reforested. Extensive deforestation over a century contributed immensely to environmental degradation. Improved protection of watersheds, rivers, and estuaries is essential. Philippine urban areas have developed with little planning to mitigate the effects of natural disasters, despite their frequency. Storms and floods become worse in terms of frequency and number of people affected as shown dramatically in 2009 (Ondoy in Manila), 2011 (Sedong in N. Mindanao), 2012 (Pablo in E. Mindanao), and 2013 (Yolanda in the Visayas). Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have been less frequent except for the Bohol/Cebu earthquake in 2013. As the worlds second largest archipelago, the countrys shores and estuaries are predicted to be inundated gradually as seas rise from global warming.

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177

Urban Population, % of Total Population, 1950 to 2050 (Forecast)


100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Asia Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam

Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects 2011 Revised

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179

Philippines Forest Cover, 1990 to 2010


25 Forest cover, Mil Ha, lhs 20 % of total land area, rhs 100% 90% 80% 70% 15 60% 50% 10 40% 30% 5 20% 10% 0 1900 1934-41 1970 1975 1980 1988 1990 2000 2005 2010 0%

Sources: DENR, WB CEA 2009 and 2010 FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment Philippines Country Report

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181

Total Damage of Natural Disasters, Philippines, 1970 to September 2013, US$ Million
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Others

Flood

Storm

1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

2000-2009

2010-Sept 2013

Source: EM-DAT, The International Disaster Database; Note: Others include earthquakes, epidemics, extreme temp incidents, insect infestations, wet & dry mass movements, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires.

Total Number of People Affected by Natural Disasters, Philippines, 1970 to September 2013, in Million
40

35

30

Others

Flood

Storm

25

20

15

10

1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

2000-2009

2010-Sept 2013

Source: EM-DAT, The International Disaster Database; Note: Data include people injured, rendered homeless, displaced, evacuated and given external assistance. Others include earthquakes, epidemics, extreme temp incidents, insect infestations, wet & dry mass movements, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires.

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PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Foreign Equity and Professionals

Recommendations: 12
2013 2012 2011

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PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

FOREIGN EQUITY AND PROFESSIONALS


I think our leaders should seriously assess why foreign investors continue to bypass the Philippines... They should look at the real constraints to foreign direct investments (and) having identified the constraints, the government should address each and every constraint with vigor, focus, and perseverance.
- Former DBM Sec. Benjamin E. Diokno, BusinessWorld, February 14, 2013

Reforms allowing more foreign equity participation in restricted sectors of the economy were not a government priority until 2013. The Philippines significantly lags behind the ASEAN-6 in openness to foreign investment and ranks at the bottom third of all countries surveyed by the WB in having a regulatory regime favorable to foreign investment. The Philippine constitution is quite unique in containing foreign equity restrictions on certain business activities; two presidential commissions have recommended their removal as have Congressional leaders and leading business groups. The only significant change in the Foreign Investment Negative List (FINL) since limited foreign investment in retail trade was allowed in 2000 was the opening of gambling casinos to majority foreign equity in 2010. The Philippines is also restrictive of foreign professionals practicing. The constitution states the practice of all professions shall be limited to Filipino citizens, save in cases prescribed by law. There are 46 laws governing the practice of specific professions, and 42 contain reciprocity provisions allowing foreigners to practice. A SC rule limits legal practice to Philippine nationals, but only four of the 46 laws limit their professions to nationals. Few foreign professionals take exams or apply to the PRC, thus few are approved. It should be in the Philippine interest to seek reduced restrictions on professionals in other countries, e.g. in the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services and the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services, and to have more foreign professionals in the country who can bring new skills and connections to global networks, create more jobs for Filipinos, and support sunrise sectors like Research and Development, Medical Travel, and Retirement.

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Business Impact of Rules on FDI,Rank


1 21 41 61 81 101 121

Singapore Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia Vietnam

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF ; Total number of countries evaluated: 2009 (133), 2010 (139), 2011 (143); 2012(144)

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189

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191

Table 1. Maximum Share of Foreign Equity Ownership Allowed


Indonesia Japan Korea, Rep. 49 49 49 49 49 40 100 49 100 100 30 40 100 49 100 100 49 40 100 49 100 100 30 40 100 49 100 100 49 51 49 51 Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand United Kingdom United States Vietnam Average

Sector

India

TELECOM 49 49 65 65 100 33 100 100 67 69 63 71

Fixed-line infrastructure Fixed-line telephony

74

74

74

Wireless/mobile infrastructure Wireless/mobile services ELECTRICITY 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 100 95 49 49 49 49 49 0 0 100 20 0 100 100 100 49 30 33 49 33 49 33 100 100 100 100 100 100 30 100 100 100 70 100 100 70 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 100 49 30 40 100 49 30 40 100 100 100 100 100 100 49 5 5 49 5 100 100 30 40 100 100 100 30 40 100 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 25 30 100 100 30 100 100 49 100 100 30 100 100 49 100 100 30 100 100 49 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 49 49 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 25 100 100 100 25 100

74

192 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT


100 100 100 100 100 0 0 100 0 49 49 49 100 100 0 0 89 89 89 83 83 69 69 87 78 65 54 56 77 68 36 45

100

100

100

100

Power generation coal Power generation hydro Power generation biomass Power generation solar Power generation wind Power transmission

100

100

Power distribution

100

MINING, OIL, AND GAS

Mining

100

Oil and gas

100

TRANSPORT

Railway freight

Domestic air

49

International air

49

Airport operation

100

Port operation

100

MEDIA

Television broadcasting Newspaper

100

26

Source: Investing Across Borders Database (World Bank, 2010)

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Governance

Recommendations: 16
2013 2012 2011

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GOVERNANCE
The people are not here to be at the mercy of processes, especially when these processes have already become obsolete and counterproductive. After all, government exists precisely to improve the lot of the people they swore to serve and from whom they received their mandate. And so, we continue to ask ourselves these questions: How do we further plug leaks in systems to prevent graft and corruption? How do we make our processes that much more efficient?
- President Benigno S.C. Aquino III at the Good Governance Summit 2014, Pasay City, January 15, 2014

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

Net Satisfaction Ratings of Philippine Presidents, (1986 2013)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

-80% 1986

Aquino, C 1992

Ramos 1998

Estrada 2001 2004

Arroyo 2010

10% Aquino, B 0%

Source: SWS; Latest survey conducted: Dec 8-11, 2012

Napoles was a fixer who made corruption nearly invisible, shielded from liability by her powerful clients. But greed and arrogance led her to take for grated the small people who assisted her. They are the whistle-blowers.
- Randy David, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 9, 2014

... in this country, the corrupt always have their cake and eat it, too. Politics, which when used properly should empower the masses and lead to inclusive growth, in our case empowers only a miniscule few. In our society, one rises by birthright rather than merit.
- Ana Marie Pamintuan, Philippine Star, February 10, 2014

Filipinos and foreigners agree that many problems of the country could be turned around with better governance. The reputation for political instability and widespread corruption persists. Of the ASEAN-6, it ranks 5th for Political Stability and Absence of Violence. After a decade of falling, the Philippines Transparency International rating dropped to
194 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

134th place out of 178 countries in 2010placing it second to the last of 14 Asian and South Asian Countriesbefore rebounding to 105th in 2012 (out of 176 countries) and then 94th in 2013 (out of 177 countries) for a 40-position advance in the Aquino Administration. In global competitive surveys, corruption is often cited as the top factor harming business. Smuggling is a major concern to business because it weakens the domestic market for manufacturers and for importers who pay duties and taxes and robs the government of revenue. Domestic automotive production has been undercut for a decade by used car imports, negating the industry development plan. Huge sums that could build schools and provide better health care have been stolen by government officials and their private sector co-conspirators through under-declaration of import volumes of various products, notably oil and rice. The Philippines does not yet adequately protect Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). While the law is sound, sale of counterfeit goods remains widespread because of inadequate enforcement despite increased GPH efforts. The OMB lacks resources. Government procurement practices should be more transparent. GOCCs should be reformed and rationalized.
Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, Selected East and South Asian Countries, 2001-2012
2005
Rank 5 15 21 32 39 40 59 78 88 107 117 137 144 158 Country/ Territory Singapore Hongkong Japan Taiwan Malaysia South Korea Thailand China India Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Pakistan Bangladesh CPI Score 9.4 8.3 7.3 5.9 5.1 5.0 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.7 Rank 1 13 17 33 39 56 78 78 87 110 116 134 134 143

2010
Country/ Territory Singapore Hongkong Japan Taiwan South Korea Malaysia China Thailand India Indonesia Vietnam Bangladesh Philippines Pakistan CPI Score 9.3 8.4 7.8 5.8 5.4 4.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 Rank 5 14 17 37 45 54 80 88 94 105 118 123 139 144

2012
Country/ Territory Singapore Hongkong Japan Taiwan South Korea Malaysia China Thailand India Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Pakistan Bangladesh CPI Score 87 77 74 61 56 49 39 37 36 34 32 31 27 26 Rank 5 15 18 36 46 53 80 94 94 102 114 116 127 136

2013
Country/ Territory Singapore Hongkong Japan Taiwan South Korea Malaysia China Philippines India Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Pakistan Bangladesh CPI Score 86 75 74 61 55 50 40 36 36 35 32 31 28 27

Source: Transparency International; Number of countries: 2005=158; 2010=178; 2012=176; 2013=177.

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195

It appears that the corruption crusade of the present Administration is losing steam. Lifestyle checks, previously recognized by the World Bank as a very potent weapon against corrupt government officials in the Philippines, are being conducted infrequently. Also, whatever lifestyle checks are conducted appear not to target senior government officials and are only being conducted by the Department of Finance. Fortunately, the recent exposure of the PDAF scam and the declaration of nullity of the PDAF by the Supreme Court have awakened the public about the extremely grave problem of corruption. With these developments, hopefully, the Daang Matuwid crusade will have a second wind.
Extent of Corruption in the Public Sector
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

2000

Source: 2013 SWS Survey of Enterprises on Corruption

A Lot

2001

Some

2002

A Little

2003

None

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

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Enterprises Solicited for a Bribe, by Type of Transaction, 2000-2013


100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Collecting receivables from gov't Getting nat'l gov't permits/licenses Any of the 7

Obtaining local gov't permits/licenses

Assessment/Payment of taxes

Related to import regulations & duties

Supplying gov't with goods/services

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Availing gov't incentives

Source: 2013 SWS Survey of Enterprises on Corruption

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Control of Corruption, ASEAN-6, Point Estimates, 1996-2011


2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Singapore Thailand Vietnam 2007 2008 2009 Malaysia Indonesia Philippines 2010 2011

Source: World Banks World Governance Indicators; 0 (vertical axis) represent the mean point estimate of all countries evaluated

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PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Judicial

Recommendations: 12
2013 2012 2011

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PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

JUDICIAL
If the wheels of justice are to grind faster in this country, reforms should start at the top. The Supreme Court, which has supervision over the judiciary, should lead the way and set the pace... The system is broken and in dire need of fixing. Repair work must start at the top.
- Philippine Star Editorial, January 9, 2014

In the past decades, the failure to send crooks to prison, compounded by the atrociously slow pace of justice, reinforced perceptions that stealing from public coffers pays in this country. The bigger the amount stolen, the greater the chance of getting away with the crime.
- Ana Marie Pamintuan, Philippine Star, February 10, 2014

Supreme Court Decisions with Negative Impact on Business


Year
2013

Case
Meralco price hike TRO San Roque TCC refund

Impact
A 60-day TRO declared on December 23, 2013 against the countrys largest DU passing on to consumers high WESM clearing price rates, induced by unanticipated generation shortages, created uncertainty over the reliability of Philippine power policy. Supreme Court denied a motion for reconsideration by a large foreign hydropower operator that had applied prematurely for refund of PHP 560 million in taxes and duties paid on imported capital equipment otherwise eligible for government refund. This decision adds to uncertainty about the countrys investment climate. Supreme Court reversed 75 years of Philippine jurisprudence on foreign ownership in a case involving PLDT shareholders. The high court upheld in October 2012 this decision despite an appeal from PLDT. Supreme Court ruled that an agent of a life insurance company was an employee and not an independent contractor, which is the standard practice internationally. Upon the motion for reconsideration by Manulife the court changed its decision. Supreme Court sustained an LGU decision rezoning an oil storage area from industrial to commercial and forcing its relocation. Supreme Court reversed its 2000 decision that a shipyard is a public utility; in a 2003 SC Resolution it upheld that a shipyard is not a public utility and reaffirmed this decision in 2005. 1st decision prevented needed foreign capital from investing; 2nd decision in Dec 2004 reversed previous decision and allowed foreign investment in large-scale mining via FTAA. Disallowed a 20-year old accounting practice; ordered retroactive refunds that impair creditworthiness of the countrys largest distribution utility; discouraged foreign bank lending to power projects. Voided a government contract of a consortium, involving US$350 million German investment, which built the new passenger terminal, leaving it largely unused and deteriorating. Asserted foreign-hired and local-hired employees should receive same salaries, citing UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Declared a shipyard a public utility and awarded contract to losing bidder 5 years after it awarded to Singaporean-led Keppel group (with foreign equity above 40% minimum for public utilities). Nullified a competitive tender for the privatization of a government-owned hotel awarded to a foreign investor, declared the hotel national patrimony, leaving the award of the contract to the only domestic bidder. Overruled the approval by the Board of Investments of foreign investor group project originally in Bataan then moved to Batangas; the proponents abandoned the US$1 billion project losing US$25 million.

2013

2011

Gamboa/PCSI

2008

Manulife

2008 2003/05 2004 2003

Pandacan terminal LGU spot zoning Subic Shipyard Mining Act of 1995 Meralco

2003 2002 2000 1997

PIATCO International School Manila Subic Shipyard Manila Hotel

1991

Taiwan Naptha Cracker Plant

204 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Reforms in administration of justice should be intensified. Among challenges are clogged dockets, rulings that negatively impact on the business climate, the use of courts and sheriffs for legal harassment, and questionable TROs. Increased judicial salaries helped reduce the vacancy rate slightly from 27% in 2012 to 26% in 2011. Furthermore, after peaking in 2000, the caseload for all courts declined to 1.04 million in 2012 from 1.08 million in 2011. The Alternative Dispute Resolution Act of 2004 encouraged more parties to arbitrate. The volume of new cases is down, and there is a 54.2% increase in their resolution. Caseload per judge has declined by 4.5%. With more judges handling fewer cases, the backlog should shrink and also the delay of justice. The number of graft and corruption cases filed before the Sandiganbayan has fallen since 2002, but the percentage of convictions increased. The Philippines ranking in the Global Competitiveness Report for efficiency of legal settlement has improved to 76th in 2013-14 from 123rd in 2009-10, but it is still the second lowest in ASEAN-6. SC appears to have become more cautious about its decisions harming the business climate. Its rulings supportive of the economy should be recognized. SC should more often request amicus curiae advice in business-related cases. The SC docket is crowded with some 7,000 cases divided among 15 justices. SC uses computers to track the status of cases, but lower courts do not yet. Greater selectivity would decrease the caseload and help SC meet the constitutional requirement to reach decisions within 24 months. The US SC only accepts some 150 of 10,000 petitions it receives each year.

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205

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

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2011 Rating

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Not Ongoing

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Not Ongoing

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Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

206 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Efficiency of Legal Framework in Settling Disputes, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009-2014


1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Philippines

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF ; Total number of countries evaluated: 2009 (133), 2010 (139), 2011 (143); 012(144); 2013 (148)

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

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Not Ongoing

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207

Number of Judges and Average Case Load per Judge, 2000-2012


2,000 Number of judges Case load per judge 1,200 1,000 1,500 800 600 400 500 200 0

1,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Sources: Supreme Court of the Philippines Annual Reports, NSCB and authors calculations.

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

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Started

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208 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

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Not Ongoing

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209

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Labor

Recommendations: 9
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 2 Improved Rating: 0 1


No Longer Relevant Started

0 3 4

Declined

7 0 1

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

LABOR
From a government that treats its people as an export commodity and a means to earn foreign exchange, disregarding the social cost to Filipino families to a government that creates jobs at home, so that working abroad will be a choice rather than a necessity; and when its citizens do choose to become OFWs, their welfare and protection will be the governments priority.
- President Aquino, A Social Contract with the Filipino People, Official Gazette [http://www.gov.ph/ about/gov/exec/bsaiii/platform-of-government/], July 25, 2010

A record 868,700 people did apprenticeships in Britain last year, up 77 percent from three years ago. The government committed 1.57 billion to the training last year, about half of that to programs for 16- to 18-year-olds.
- Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura, The New York Times. January 21, 2014

The Philippine economy does not create enough high quality jobs for the growing population and to improve economic growth. Of a labor force of 41 million, unemployment reached as high as 7.3% and underemployment at over 22% during the year 2013. Some 10 million Filipinos would like to work more or would like to have some full or part time work. Over the past decade, an annual average of 846,000 persons entered the workforce. As the economy does not create enough jobs, many go abroad and some remain unemployed. Without the overseas market, unemployment and underemployment rates could be two to three times higher. With the highest unemployment rate of the ASEAN-6, it is not surprising that the Philippines also has the fastest rate of brain drain among the ASEAN-6 nations. Much needs to be done to match educational and training curricula to available jobs. More young Filipinos need to acquire specialized fields related to the Seven Big Winner sectors proposed by the Joint Foreign Chambers. DOLE is undertaking Project Jobs Fit to identify the new and emerging employment sectors as well as the skills needed. The Philippine Labor Code is almost 40 years old and out of tune with regional developments. Disruptive labor action, however, is infrequent. The economy has been unable to raise labor productivity. Of the ASEAN-6, only the Philippines has not significantly increased labor productivity over the last three decades.

212 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

Labor Market Key Indicators, 1991 to 2013


50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Labor force, in Mn, lhs Labor force growth rate, rhs Unemployment rate, rhs Underemployment rate, rhs 21% 14% 7% 0% -7% 28% 35%

Source: NSO; Note: Definition changed in April 2005

Backward/Regression

1991

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1992

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1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

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2000

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2001

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2007

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LABOR

2008

2009

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2010

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213

New Entrants to the Labor Force, 2001 to 2012

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 985 793 818 869 890 865 887 745

New Entrants Employed Unemployed

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

761

762

828

912

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: DOLE-BLES

2011 Rating

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Completed

Completed

Completed

214 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LABOR

215

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216 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Unemployment Rates, ASEAN-6, 1990-2012


16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Singapore Thailand

Sources: ILO, ADB and respective national statistics offices; Note: no data for Vietnam before 1997; Philippines revised the definition of unemployed in April 2005

2011 Rating

Substantial Progress

Workers Involved in Actual Strikes and Mandays Lost, 1990-2012, in 000


80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Workers involved, in '000 Mandays Lost, in '000 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: BLES-DOLE
PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LABOR

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

Substantial Progress

1998

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1999

2000

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2004

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2009

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Substantial Progress

2010

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2012

217

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

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Started

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Labor Productivity Index, ASEAN-6, 1980-2012


Vietnam 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Thailand Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Philippines

Source: The Conference Board; Note: Labor productivity per person employed is defined as GDP per person in constant 1990 US$ converted ar GK$ PPP . GK stands for the originators of this PPP formula, Geary Khamis.

Pay and Productivity Rankings, ASEAN-6, 2009-2014


1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Philippines

Source: WEF

218 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

Recommendations: 13
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 2 Improved Rating: 0 5


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 4

Declined

11 4 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

219

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION
We, (House and Senate leaders) agreed on a list of bills that we will vigorously pursue in the two chambers. There are vast similarities between the list of priority measures that we agreed on and the list of the priority measures of the Joint Foreign Chambers and the Philippine Business Groups. The reform measures that we were able to institute together were borne out of our dialogues during the 15th Congress. This is by no measure a modest gain. I fully believe that we are capable of accomplishing more.
- House Speaker Feliciano R. Belmonte, Jr., meeting with JFC and PBG, February 12, 2014

Both chambers are aware of several pending measures that need urgent legislative action, and the failure of Congress to enact them promptly would be detrimental to the cause being advocated by the government and to the welfare and overall development of the nation and the Filipino people, who would primarily benefit from these measures. We have a lot of promising legislation, which once passed would promote heightened transparency and accountability in public office and implement long-sought reforms in the delivery of justice. We are looking at several measures aimed at ensuring better macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability and at improving the countrys overall competitiveness and business climate.
- Senate President Franklin M. Drilon, February 7, 2014

While the Philippines has many excellent laws, there is continual need to update old ones and legislate for new developments. Usually, the legislative process moves very slowly. There were 42 significant business and economic reforms enacted in the 12th, 13th, and 14th Congresses. In the 15th Congress alone, there were 34 such laws. Speeding the enactment of new laws and amending old ones should be a higher priority for the Executive Branch. With strong leadership, the 15th and 16th Congresses can move twice as fast and pass many bills that improve the Philippine economy and competitiveness. A group of Philippine business groups and JFC members recommended to the president and Congress 41 reforms for consideration in the 15th and 16th Congresses. The list is organized into eight categories according to the Seven Big Winners and General Business Environment of Arangkada. Ten were enacted in the 15th Congress. The private sector must be vigilant and oppose market-unfriendly legislative proposals early in the legislative process, since presidential vetoes are rare. LEDAC was used very effectively during the Ramos Administration and can be an excellent management tool for achieving the legislative agenda.

220 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

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Business and Economic Reforms Laws, by Congress, Philippines


LAW TITLE 12th Congress (2001-2004) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Alternative Dispute Resolution Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2001 (AMLA) AMLA Amendments Clean Water Act Documentary Stamp Tax Rationalization Domestic Shipping Development Act Dual-Citizenship Act Electric Power Industry Reform Act Government Procurement Reform Act Judiciary Compensation Rationalization Act RA 9285 RA 9160 RA9194 RA 9275 RA 9243 RA 9295 RA 9225 RA 9136 RA 9184 RA 9227 2-Apr-04 29-Sept 7-Mar-03 22-Mar-04 17-Feb-04 3-May-04 29-Aug-03 8-Jun-01 10-Jan-03 23-Oct-03 LAW NO. DATE ENACTED

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LEGISLATION

221

LAW TITLE 12th Congress (2001-2004) 11 12 13 14 1 2a 2b 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Optical Medical Act Restructuring Exercise Tax on Automobiles Securitization Act Special Purpose Vehicle Act 13th Congress (2004-2007) Anti-Red Tape Act Bases Conversation and Development Authority (BCDA) Amendments Amnesty for Business in Special Economic Zones and Freeports Biofuels Act Expanded Value Added Tax Lateral Attrition Act Special Purpose Vehicle Act extension 14th Congress (2007-2010) Anti-Camcording Act Bureau of Food and Drugs Act amendments Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines Act Cooperatives Code Credit Information System Act Customs Brokers Act amendments Documentary Stamp Tax Exemption (PSE) Financial Rehabilitation and Insolvency Act Individual Income Taxes Rate Exemption JPEPA Ratification Magna Carta for MSMEs Act amendments National Grid Corporation Franchise National Tourism Policy Act Personal Equity Retirement Account (PERA) Act Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp. amendments Pre-need Code Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Act Renewable Energy Act Residential Free Patent Act Revised Kyoto Convention (RKC) Ratification Tax Information Exchange Act Tax on Life Insurance Premiums 15th Congress (2010-2013) Agricultural and Fisheries Mechanization Law Anti-Enforced or Involuntary Disappearance Act Anti-Money Laundering Act amendments Anti-Money Laundering Act amendments Common Carriers Tax/ Gross Philippine Billings Tax Conciliation-Mediation for Dispute Settlement Cybercrime Prevention Act Data Privacy Act Domestic Workers Act Early Years Act of 2013 Enhanced Basic Education Act of 2013 Excise Tax on Alcohol, Cigarettes, and Tobacco Expanded Anti-trafficking in Persons Act Extending Implementation of the Lifeline Rate Financial Rehabilitation and Insolvency Act Firearms and Ammunition Regulation Act GOCC Governance Act Intellectual Property Code amendments Kindergarten Education Act National Health Insurance Act of 2013 People Survival Fund Philippine Design Competitiveness Act Regulating Profession - Environmental Planning Repeal of Nightwork Prohibition for Women Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act Revised AFP Modernization Act amendments Rural Bank Act amendments Strengthening Tripartism Terrorism Financing Prevention and Suppression Act Philippine Statistical Act Insurance Code Amendments Food Safety Fast-Tracked S&T Scholarship Act of 2013 Rural Farm Schools Act

LAW NO. RA RA RA RA 9239 9224 9267 9182

DATE ENACTED 10-Feb-04 28-Aug-03 19-Mar-04 23-Dec-02 2-Jun-07 20-Mar-07 20-Mar-07 12-Jan-07 24-May-05 25-Jan-05 25-Jul-05 13-May-10 18-Aug-09 4-Mar-08 17-Feb-09 31-Oct-08 15-Dec-09 30-Jun-09 18-Jul-10 17-Jun-08 8-Oct-08 23-May-08 1-Dec- 08 12-May -09 22-Aug- 08 29-Apr-09 3-Dec-09 17-Dec-09 16-Dec-08 9-Mar-10 1-Feb-10 8-Mar-10 23-Feb-10 5-Jun-13 21-Dec-12 18-Jun-12 15-Feb-13 7-Mar-13 16-Mar-13 9-Sept-12 15-Aug-12 18-Jan-13 26-Mar-13 15-May-13 20-Dec-12 6-Feb-13 20-Jun-11 18-Jul-10 29-May-13 6-Jun-11 28-Feb-13 20-Jan-12 19-June-13 16-Aug-12 15-May-13 27-May-13 21-Jun-11 21-Dec-12 11-Dec-12 24-May-13 14-Mar-13 18-Jun-12 12-Sep-13 15-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 23-Aug-13 3-Sep-13

RA 9337 RA 9400 RA 9399 RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA 9367 9337 9335 9343 10088 9711 9497 9520 9510 9853 9648 10124 9504 9501 9511 9593 9505 9576 9829 9856 9513 10023

RA 10021 RA 10001 RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA 10601 10353 10167 10365 10378 10396 10175 10173 10361 10410 10533 10351 10364 10150 10142 10591 10149 10372 10157 10606 10174 10557 10587 10151 10354 10349 10574 10395 10168 10625 10607 10611 10612 10618

222 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

BusinessBusiness and Economic Reform Laws, Laws, by Congress, Philippines, and Economic Reforms by Congress, 2001-2013 2001-2013
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 14 34

22

12th (2001-2004)

13th (2004-2007)

14th (2007-2010)

15th (2010-2013)

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LEGISLATION

223

2011 Rating

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224 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

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Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

2011 Rating

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Backward/Regression

Backward/Regression

Started

2011 Rating

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2013 Rating

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Substantial Progress

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LEGISLATION

225

2011 Rating

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Not Ongoing

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226 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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Legislation Policy Brief

For further reading: http://www.investphilippines.info/arangkada/arangkada-legislation-policy-brief/

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LEGISLATION

227

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Local Government

Recommendations: 15
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active Dormant

Dormant Dormant

Progress: 0 Improved Rating: 0 6


No Longer Relevant Started

0 1 7

Declined

15 1 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

LOCAL GOVERNMENT
I believe [tracking LGU competitiveness] will, aside from providing businessmen with information about a city or municipality, also transform the way LGUs will manage themselves. Data collection will now provide cities with a means of regularly measuring their performance. Measurement, in turn, will enable local governments to better manage themselves. It will enable them to focus on the things that matter to their constituents and to develop ways of improving city performance.
- National Competitiveness Council Co-Chair Guillermo Luz, Philippine Daily Inquirer, July 26, 2013, Business Matter: Introducing the City/Municipality Competitiveness Index

LGUs should be supportive of investors who bring jobs and revenue to their communities. Complaints are rare when LGU processes are transparent, efficient, fast, honest, and do not burden investors. When they are not, investors complain, and the image of the Philippines is harmed. Surveys of domestic and foreign investors have scored corruption as the top business problem, with inefficient government bureaucracy the second. A solution for bureaucratic corruption is reducing the number of signatures and using e-governance. Ratings of LGU competitiveness can encourage cities and provinces to improve themselves. When LGUs impose taxes or fees contrary to national policy or ban mining, they can harm the investment climate. This is a serious issue requiring attention.
The 2013 SWS Survey of Enterprises on Corruption: Sincerity Ratings (%) 30 of Bureau of Customs in Fighting Corruption
20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -75 -74 -63 -68 -72 -69 -46 2005

2006
2007 2008 2009 2012 2013

Source: as stated

230 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LOCAL GOVERNMENT

231

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Most Competitive Cities and Municipalities in the Philippines, 2013


Top 5 Cities - Overall Competitiveness Rank
1 2 3 4 5

LGU
Cagayan de Oro City Iloilo City San Fernando City Butuan City Bacolod City

Region
Northern Mindanao Western Visayas Central Luzon CARAGA Western Visayas

Score
72.09 68.23 67.89 63.07 61.62

Top 5 Municipalities - Overall Competitiveness Rank


1 2 3 4 5

LGU
San Francisco Guagua Carmona Daet General Trias

Region
CARAGA Central Luzon CALABARZON Bicol Region CALABARZON

Score
54.86 54.18 53.18 51.45 51.22

Source: NCC 1st Cities and Municipalities Competitiveness Index

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232 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: LOCAL GOVERNMENT

233

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Satisifaction with Your City Government in Promoting a Good Business Climate, 2007-2013
Dissatisfied Undecided Satisfied

64

64

63

64

67

16 19 2007

15 20 2008

16 21 2009

17 19 2012

17 17 2013

Source: SWS 2013 Survey of Enterprises on Corruption. Note: No data provided for 2010-2011.

2011 Rating

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Not Ongoing - Started

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234 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

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Started

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235

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236 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Macroeconomic Policy

Recommendations: 27
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active Dormant

Dormant Dormant

Progress: 7 Improved Rating: 0 9


No Longer Relevant Started

3 2 10

Declined

17 5 1

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237

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

MACROECONOMIC POLICY
TPP is by aspiration, not invitation. The United States wants the Philippines to be part of TPP , but membership involves taking on obligations to implement market liberalizing measures. It will take a resolute commitment by the Philippine Government to meet the agreements standards.
- US Ambassador Philip S. Godberg. February 5, 2014

The Philippines economic performance has entered a structural shift to higher growth, accompanied by low inflation... The positive outlook reflects the expectation of continued economic outperformance by the Philippines relative to peers, which, in turn, would further support debt consolidation and associated improvements in debt affordability and sustainability. Moreover, sustained political stability points to better prospects for reform over the second half of the current presidential administration.
- Moodys Investor Service on its decision to upgrade the Philippines credit rating, October 3, 2013

Macroeconomic management of the economy has generally been sound after 1986 with the exception of short periods of very large deficits and high inflation. Since the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis, the biggest fiscal challenges have been deficits and weak tax collections. The tax effort peaked in 1997 at 17% and in 2013 was only 13.4%. In the WEF Global Competiveness Report, among the ASEAN-6, the Philippines placed 5th in the rankings for overall macroeconomic environment. In recognition of sound management, Philippine sovereign ratings have steadily advanced to investment grade. Within ASEAN-6, the Philippines has among the highest corporate income tax. In WEFs 2013-14 rankings for the category Burden of Government Regulation, the Philippines placed 98 of 148 countries, the second lowest among ASEAN-6. Investors seek a stable and predictable policy environment with low risk. New FTAs are creating great opportunities to develop new export markets. The Philippine economy could be disadvantaged if not included in the EU bilateral FTAs in ASEAN or in the TransPacific Partnership (TPP). The GPH is moving toward a bilateral FTA with the EU and membership in the TPP , both of which will bring new opportunities but also challenges to the Philippine economy.

238 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

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Substantial Progress

Macroeconomic Environment/Stability, ASEAN-6 rankings, 2009-2014


1

21 Singapore 41 Indonesia Thailand 61 Malaysia Philippines Vietnam 101

81

121

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF

Gross International Reserves, 1990 to 2012, US$ Billion


90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2 0 10 8 6 4 GIR (billion USD), lhs Import cover, no. of months, rhs 14 12

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: BSP
PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: MACROECONOMIC POLICY

2012

239

2011 Rating

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240 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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Substantial Progress

National Government Cash Position, 1990 to September 2013


800 20%

600

15%

400

10%

200

5%

0 Fiscal balance,lhs Revenue effort, rhs Tax effort, rhs Deficit ratio, rhs

0%

-200

-5%

-400

-10%

Source: Bureau of the Treasury

2011 Rating

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PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: MACROECONOMIC POLICY

241

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242 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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Completed

Tax Effort, ASEAN-6, 1990-2012


35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore Philippines Indonesia

Sources: ADB, NSCB (Philippines, GDP linked series) and NESDB (Thailand QGDP series)
PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: MACROECONOMIC POLICY

243

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244 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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246 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

Ease in Paying Taxes, Overall and per Sub-Category, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009-2013
Overall ease of paying taxes Country/Year
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 10 130 23 124 4 91 124 11 130 28 135 4 97 151 12 131 15 143 5 96 138 13 137 36 131 5 141 149 10 158 40 149 6 83 102

Tax payments
11 162 46 155 7 84 107 12 169 53 162 7 80 108 13 176 56 135 7 82 113 10 107 43 70 15 106 181

Time to comply
11 112 40 72 15 111 181 12 111 38 71 13 114 182 13 114 39 76 15 116 185 10 77 58 118 28 78 54

Total tax rate


11 67 62 129 32 84 95 12 66 24 131 33 88 66 13 60 84 128 35 49 79

Source: Paying Taxes series by World Bank, PriceWaterhouseCoopers and IFC Total number of economies evaluated: 2010-183; 2011-183; 2012-185; 2013-189

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: MACROECONOMIC POLICY

247

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not ongoing

248 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Backward/Regression

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: MACROECONOMIC POLICY

249

Gross Domestic Savings Ratio, ASEAN-6, 1990-2012


80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Philippines

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Sources: ADB, NSCB (Linked series Philippines), NESDB (QGDP series Thailand) and authors calculations

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not ongoing

Started

Started

250 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2012

Extent and Effect of Taxation, ASEAN 6, Rankings, 2009-2014


1 21 41 61 81 101 121

Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines Vietnam

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF ; Total number of countries evaluated: 2009 (133), 2010 (139), 2011 (143); 2012(144)

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not ongoing

Not ongoing

Not Ongoing

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: MACROECONOMIC POLICY

251

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not ongoing

Not ongoing

Started

Prevalence of Trade Barriers, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009 to 2014


1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF

252 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Security

Recommendations: 15
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active Dormant Dormant

Dormant

Progress: 4 Improved Rating: 0 9


No Longer Relevant Started

1 0 5

Declined

10 1 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

253

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

SECURITY
In 1986, there were an estimated 250,000 policemen and soldiers protecting a total of 55 million Filipinos. Today, we still have an estimated 250,000 policemen and soldiers, who protect 95 million Filipinos. Our population has almost doubled, while the number of our protectors has not changed.
- President Benigno S.C. Aquino III, State of the Nation Address, Batasang Pambansa Complex, Quezon City, July 22, 2013

Investing in peace is so much cheaper than waging war.


- DBM Secretary Florencio Abad, JFC luncheon, February 6, 2014.

Security issues are a serious investment climate concern, especially in some rural areas (for mining and tourism), and in parts of Mindanao. This section contains recommendations concerning: external security, internal security (insurgency, terrorism, and warlordism), military extra-constitutional actions, crime, defense and police capabilities, economic development of Mindanao/Sulu, and foreign government travel warnings. The WB measure, Political Stability and the Absence of Violence and Terrorism, shows the Philippines is no longer the lowest-ranked among ASEAN-6; Thailand is ranked slightly lower. In the WEF Reliability of Police Services the Philippines showed steady improvement from 6th to 4th position. However, in the WEF Global Competitiveness Index the Philippines still ranks the lowest among the ASEAN-6 for Business Costs of Crime and Violence. For Business Costs of Terrorism, it ranks very close to Indonesia and Thailand near the bottom. At 1.2% of GDP , military spending in 2012 was the second lowest of the ASEAN-6. As such, solutions for Mindanao/ Sulu include: (1) better governance and economic growth that reduce the appeal of local combatants, (2) an implementable political settlement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), and (3) military/police action against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Mindanao infrastructure, the unreliable supply of power, inadequate ground transport, and high domestic shipping costs, need urgent attention.

254 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Not Ongoing

Started

Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, ASEAN-6, Percentile Rankings, 1996-2012


100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Singapore Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines

Source: World Banks World Governance Indicators

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SECURITY

255

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing - Started

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Business Costs of Terrorism, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009-2014


1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Philippines

Source: WEF

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

256 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SECURITY

257

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Substantial Progress

258 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Started

Started

Philippines Defense Expenditure, % of GDP , 1990 to 2012, PhP Billion


120 Level, Bn PhP, lhs % of GDP, rhs 100 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 60 0.6% 40 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

80

20

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Sources: ADB and NSCB (for the GDP; linked series)


PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SECURITY

2012

259

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing - Started

Not Ongoing

Substantial Progress

Reliability of Police Services, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009-2014


1 21 Singapore 41 61 81 101 121 Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Thailand

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

260 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Substantial Progress

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Started

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SECURITY

261

Business Costs of Crime and Violence, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009-2014


1

21 Singapore 41 Malaysia Vietnam 61 Thailand Indonesia Philippines 101

81

121

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Source: WEF

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

262 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Education

Recommendations: 12
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active Dormant

Dormant Dormant

Progress: 1 Improved Rating: 0 8


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 2

Declined

11 2 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

263

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

EDUCATION
Education determines the quality of tomorrows workforce. Appropriate skills are essential for a middle-income economy trying to increase its knowledge-based sectors. Philippine education needs both policy reform and greatly increased resources. All educational levels have deteriorated over several decades, faced with a young population that has outstripped resources. There has been a significant reversal in the previous decline in the WEF Global Competitiveness Report for quality of the education system rating from 69th out of 139 countries in 2010 to 40th out of 148 countries in 2013. The Philippines is now fourth of the ASEAN-6 behind Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia instead of the bottom-ranked. Philippine public expenditure per student as a percent of GDP was the least among Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia in 2011. Graduates perform poorly. The 10-year basic education cycle the shortest in the Asian region, is being corrected as part of the ambitious but essential K+12 reform. High school and college graduates must be better prepared for employment. Dropout rates are high; only 12% finish college. Classrooms in basic education are overcrowded but the backlog is being met. The pupil-teacher ratio is higher than most Asian countries. The WEF rating for quality of math and science education ranks the Philippines as 96th of 148 countries in 2013, a reversal of the downward trend in this rating. Competitors, such as China, are moving much faster. For example, over the last decade China has nearly tripled the share of GDP devoted to education. In the Philippines, the GDP share declined during the same period. The Philippines should prevent further deterioration of English in public schools and weakening its main competitive advantage, its large English-speaking workforce.

264 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Substantial Progress

National Government Education Expenditure as % of GDP , ASEAN-6, 1995-2011


1

21
Singapore

41

Malaysia Indonesia

61

Vietnam Thailand Philippines

81

101

121

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Sources: ADB, NSCB (Philippines, GDP linked series) and NESDB (Thailand QGDP series). Note: No data for Vietnam; Gaps indicate absence of data

Public Expenditure per Pupil as a % of GDP per Capita, ASEAN-6, 2008-2011


All levels
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam
Source: UNESCO

Primary
10.5 16.1 9.0 12.3 24.4 19.4

Secondary
8.8 22.6 9.1 18.8 15.4 17.0

Tertiary
23.1 62.9 9.6 27.1 17.6 60.6

12.2 23.3 10.0 18.6

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: EDUCATION

265

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

Quality of Educational System, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009-2013


1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 Singapore Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Thailand

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Source: WEF

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

266 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

Quality of Math and Science Education, ASEAN-6, Rankings, 2009-2013


1

21
Singapore

41

Malaysia Indonesia

61

Vietnam Thailand Philippines

81

101

121

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Source: WEF

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: EDUCATION

267

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

268 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: EDUCATION

269

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

270 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Started

Started

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: EDUCATION

271

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Health and Population

Recommendations: 9
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 1 Improved Rating: 1 2


No Longer Relevant Started

1 1 3

Declined

6 2 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

HEALTH AND POPULATION


The RH (Reproductive Health) law is 14 years too late but its enactment is giving us a chance to stop maternal deaths and put an end to an epidemic of ignorance that disempowers women and men alike. We must not allow the ill-founded, desperate and unreasonable attempts of a few groups to squander that chance.
- Risa Hontiveros, Former Akbayan Representative

Good public health is a significant concern for the business community. Healthy employees are more productive, have lower absenteeism, and cost less for healthcare premiums. Healthier children are able to benefit from education and eventually contribute to the economy. Good health promotes increased labor productivity, which supports higher wages. The poorest segment of Philippine society, with the least access to healthcare services, has serious health problems. The Aquino Administration is introducing Universal Health Care. Population growth and age structure determine the size of the workforce; population policy strengthens the freedom of parents to choose family size. The debate about whether the Philippines is overpopulated and how many people the resource base, environment, and government can support remains intense. A large, well-educated, and healthy population will provide the Philippines the demographic dividend for higher economic growth for the next several decades. RH policy should be everyones concern in the context of responsible parenthood toward fostering truly dignified and fulfilling human development. It affects whether parents are well-informed in exercising their right to choose among alternative methods of determining family size and their ability to raise children to become good and productive citizens.

274 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Substantial Progress

General Government Expenditure as % of GDP , 1995-2011


3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Philippines Indonesia

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: WHO

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: HEALTH AND POPULATION

275

F237 -D2hp philhealth


2011 Rating 2012 Rating 2013 Rating
Started Started Started

PhilHealth Membership, 1997-2012


30

PhilHealth Membership, 1997-2012


80%

Principal members, in mil, lhs 25 20 15 10 5 0 Members as % of labor force, rhs

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: PhilHealth Insurance Corporation

Source: PhilHealth Insurance Corporation

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

276 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Started

Number of Hospitals in the Philippines, 1985-2010


2,500 Private Government Private, yoy growth, rhs Gov't, yoy growth, rhs 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1,000 -5% -10% -15% 0 -20%

2,000

1,500

500

Source: DOH

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: HEALTH AND POPULATION

277

Average Annual Population Growth, ASEAN-6, 1962-2012


3.5%
3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

Average Annual Population Growth, ASEAN-6, 1962-2012

F254 - forD5ph pop (option 2)


1962-72 1972-82 1982-92 1992-02 2002-12

Source: World Bank


Singapore Malaysia Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

Fertility Rate, Total (Births per Woman), 1960-2011

Philippines

Indonesia

Vietnam

Thailand
Pakistan Philippines India Malaysia Bangladesh Indonesia Vietnam Thailand China Japan Korea, Rep. Singapore

Source: World Bank 8


7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011

Source: World Bank


Source: World Bank

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

278 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

51 for D7hp-congress (optio


Started Substantial Progress Backward/Regression

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Philippine Population Projections in Mn, Various Rates, 2011-2050 Philippine Population Projections in Mn, Various Rates, 2011-2050
250 Official data UN ESA 200 2% annual growth 1.5% annual growth 150 1% annual growth 0.7% annual growth 100

50

Sources: NSO, UN ESA and author's calculations

Sources: NSO, UN ESA and authors calculations

Contraceptive prevalence, among women aged 15-19 (%)

Unmet need for family planning, among women aged 15-19 (%)

Unmet need for family planning (%)

Contraceptive prevalence (%)

Period

Cambodia China India Indonesia Korea, Rep of. Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

40 84.6 56.3 61.4 80 54.5 27 50.7 62 81.1 79.5

20.8 13 46.8

6.7 25.9

22.8

2005 2006 2006 2007 2009 1994 2008/2007 2008 1997 2006 2008/2002

25.1 2.3 12.6 8.8

25.7 27.1 9.8

24.9 22.3 3.1 4.8

20 35.8

13.4

2005 2001 2006 2007 2009 2010 2007 2008 2010 2006 2002

Source: WHO
PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: HEALTH AND POPULATION

Period

1903

Reproductive Health Indicators, Selected Asian Countries, 1994-2008

1918

1939

1948

1960

1970

1975

1980

1990

1995

2000

2007

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

279

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

No Longer Relevant

No Longer Relevant

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

280 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Poverty

Recommendations: 4
2013 2012 2011

Active Active Active

Dormant Dormant Dormant

Progress: 2 Improved Rating: 0 0


No Longer Relevant Started

0 0 2

Declined

2 2 0

Steady

Backward/Regression Substantial Progress

Not Ongoing Completed

281

PART 4 GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

POVERTY
The truth is that, when the government boasts about impressive economic growth, it really means growth for business and industry. In a Utopian world, the increased profits are supposed to translate into jobs and benefits for the masses. But it doesnt happen in the real world. Most certainly, not in the Philippines.
- Greg Macabenta, columnist, Business World, January 14, 2014

With the recent man-made and natural calamities that hit the Philippines in the second half of 2013, the emerging consensus is that poverty will get worse before it gets better.
- Benjamin Diokno, Economist and Former Budget Secretary, Business World, January 14, 2014

As a percent of total population, poverty is decreasing albeit very slowly. The governments poverty ratios have fallen from levels recorded roughly twenty years ago and yet the figures-however improved--remain staggering: one of every four Filipinos and one in every five families fell below the official povery line in 2012. Further, eighteen percent of the popuation live on less than the US$1.25 a day threshold. Among the ASEAN-5, the Philippines has had the most persistent incidence of poverty (< US$1.25 a day). While Malaysia and Thailand have almost eliminated the poverty of this low cohort and Indonesia and Vietnam have reduced theirs by two thirds in the last two decades, the Philippines has made smaller strides, primarily due to frequent natural disasters, high population growth rate, and slow economic growth. The poor are often hungry, their diet inadequate, their children malnourished, and their access to family planning limited. A 2013 SWS poll counted 3.3 million families who claim having had nothing to eat at least once in three months, a figure that does not yet reflect the aftermath of typhoon Haiyan. In 2009, the Philippines had the highest percentage (40%) of Poverty Rate at US$1.25 a day (PPP) Benchmark, % of Population. slum population as ASEAN-5, 1991-2010 a percent of urban 70% population among six 60% Asian countries. With Universal Healthcare, 50% the poor will begin Philippines to have PhilHealth 40% Indonesia insurance and have Vietnam 30% improved access to Thailand health care. CCTs as 20% Malaysia a means of reducing 10% future poverty have been greatly expanded in the 0% 1991-1994 1995-1998 1999-2002 2003-2006 2007-2010 Aquino Administration.
Source: World Bank; The plotted data represent the latest data given the indicated time interval. Gaps indicate absence of data

282 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Backward/Regression

Not Ongoing

Poverty in the Philippines, 1991-2012


Poor population, in Mn, 2003 definition, lhs 60 50 40 30 20% 20 10 0 10% 0% -10% Poor population, in Mn, 2009 definition, lhs Poverty incidence, 2003 definition, rhs Poverty incidence, 2009 definition, rhs 60% 50% 40% 30%

1991

2003

2006

2009

2012

Sources: NSO and NSCB; The government recently revised the methodology in measuring poverty (regional food bundles were replaced by provincial food bundles). Poverty as measured by the 2003 definition was no longer available in 2012.

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Backward/Regression

Not Ongoing

Not Ongoing

PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: SOCIAL SERVICES: POVERTY

283

Degree of Self-Rated Hunger in Households, Philippines, 1998-2013


25% Total Moderate Severe 15%

20%

10%

5%

0%

Source: SWS

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Started

Started

Substantial Progress

2011 Rating

2012 Rating

2013 Rating

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

Substantial Progress

284 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

285

286 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

SPONSORS
nited States Agency for International Development oint Foreign ham ers of the Philippines F SAID

American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Inc. (AmCham) Australian - New Zealand Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Inc. Canadian Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Inc. (CanCham) European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Inc. (ECCP) Japanese Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Inc. (JCCIPI) orean Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines ( CCP) Philippine Association of Multinational Companies Regional Headquarters, Inc. (PAMURI) overnment Partners Board of Investments (BoI) Department of Tourism (DOT) Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) Tourism Promotions Board (TPB) Platinum Sponsor First Philippine Holdings Corporation old Sponsors Metro Pacific Investments Corporation R.G. Manabat & Co., the Philippine member firm of PMG International Silver Sponsors Blue Cross Insurance, Inc. Filinvest Alabang, Inc. Megaworld Corporation Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corporation SGV & Co. Filinvest Alabang TeamAsia (Hamlin-Itturalde Corporation) Bron e Sponsors Capital One Philippines Support Services Corporation Manila Water Company, Inc. MIESCOR (Meralco Industrial Engineering Services Corporation)

287

Patron Sponsors Aboitiz Power Corporation Chrysler JRS Express PLDT ALPHA Enterprise Supply Chain Management Association of the Philippines (SCMAP) Social Security System (SSS) Villaruz, Villaruz & Co., CPAs Assessment Document Minor Sponsors D.M. Consunji, Inc. Philips Electronics & Lighting, Inc. Official Text-in Partner Technology Partner Official Internet Provider Token Sponsor Delegate Bag Sponsor Hospitality Partner Lanyard Sponsor Department of Tourism (DOT) Tourism Promotions Board (TPB) Media Partners ANC (The ABS-CBN News Channel) Business World Publishing Corporation Oxford Business Group Philippine Daily Inquirer Rappler Other Forum Partners Confederation of Garment Exporters of the Philippines (CONGEP) Employer's Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP) Financial Executive Institute of the Philippines, Inc. (FINEX) Makati Business Club, Inc. (MBC) Management Association of the Philippines, Inc. (MAP) Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Inc. (PCCI) Philippine Constructors Association, Inc. (PCA) Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. (PhilExport) GiveMe Unlimited, Inc. Integrated Computer Systems, Inc. PLDT ALPHA Enterprise AirAsia Zest Viajero Rent-A-Car Corporation The E-Hotel Makati

Events Management Partner TeamAsia (Hamlin-Itturalde Corporation)

288 ARANGKADA PHILIPPINES 3rd ANNIVERSARY ASSESSMENT

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