Global Flood Risk Modeling

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http#$$www%katrisk%&om Feb '()*, R"" onferen&e, +rlando, FL

Dag Lohmann, Stefan Eppert, Guy Morrow KatRisk LL , !erkeley, "

Acknowledgements

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This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of cience of the !" " #epartment of $nergy under Contract No" #$%AC&'%&&OR(()('"

! A Flood *aps

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USA Flood Map on 10m resolution
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+oom into Florida

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KatRisk and FEMA data shown. KatRisk red, FEMA blue
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omething about color scales

Red KatRisk onl", no FEMA %hite Katrisk onl", low &lood depth

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#urple FEMA and KatRisk o$erlap
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Blue

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omething about color scales

Red KatRisk onl", no FEMA %hite Katrisk onl", low &lood depth

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#urple FEMA and KatRisk o$erlap
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Blue

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omething about color scales

Red KatRisk onl", no FEMA %hite Katrisk onl", low &lood depth

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#urple FEMA and KatRisk o$erlap
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Blue

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Florida Flood *ap +oom

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Orlando ,FL- Flood *ap +oom

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Orlando ,FL- Flood *ap +oom

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.ortofino /otel Flood *ap +oom

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#urple FEMA and KatRisk o$erlap
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Blue

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.ortofino /otel Flood *ap +oom

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Agenda

The final result0

1lobal Flood *aps ,flood height, flood score, hot spots1lobal correlated catastrophe model ea surface temperature

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1lobal data study

.recipitation

Risk score and more maps Conclusions

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2&& yr Loss /otspots Asia

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1lobal Flood 5 #rought *odel

Normali3ed urface 4ater ,monthly time step shown-

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Considerations for Flood *aps

*odeling ri6erine and surface flooding All areas co6ered with (%d modeling ,no thresholdFlood depth pro6ided, not 7ust e8tent *ultiple return periods ,'&, 2&&, (&&, '&&, others-

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!se all obser6ation ,precipitation, near surface meteorology, ri6er flow- and fit model with 1enetic Algorithm 1lobal approach with correlations between countries
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Thoughts about Risk *odels

To represent correlations in space and time of weather and climate e6ents To ha6e a fle8ible modeling framework that allows for the inclusion of climate change scenarios and forecasting

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$6ent based models that are consistent with maps $8plicit modeling of wind, rain, storm surge

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Flood maps 6s" .robabilistic model

Flood Maps One or more return period maps ,e"g" 2&&y, '&&y maps- for flood ha3ard mall data amount for results #robabilisti' Model *any e6ents" Can be used to create risk maps Large data amounts for results

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No information about spatial and temporal correlations Correlation is inherently part of the probabilistic model ometimes too complicated for underwriting" Can do portfolio management" Often good enough for underwriting, but can9t do portfolio management Can be produced using simplifying assumption : but can also be 6ery time consuming Complicated, especially when created for large areas ,countries ; continents ; whole earthConfidential 18

Two .robabilistic Flood *odeling Approaches

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#re'ipitation -Meteorolo(" Runo&& Routin( )nundation *au(e +bser$ations ,opula )nundation
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ome Obser6ed 1lobal Correlations

1lobal 4eather ; Climate $8tremes

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Are weather and climate linked<

1lobal climate 6ariables are correlated =ut we ha6e to look for the spatial patterns on the rele6ant time scales 4e9ll in6estigate T and precipitation how first mo6ie

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1lobal ea urface Temperature

plit each 6ariable into three components

*ean > Trend > easonal > Anomalies
A6erage T has increased about &"?@ in the last A& years A6erage seasonal 6ariation is about &"?@ Anomalies are Be8tremesC T trend by region

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T #ecomposition

4e can apply the same method of splitting up a temporal signal for each grid cell how second mo6ie

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Analy3ing the .atterns of the Anomalies

4e can then analy3e the temporal anomalies and e8press them in patterns that reduce data si3e ,$OF ; .C analysis-

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4e essentially separate space and time with this method" $ach spatial pattern ,the $OF- has an associated temporal component ,the principal component : see ne8t pageConfidential 25

4hat are these .rincipal Components<

They are teleconnection indices

.C2 is close to the $N O inde8 .C( is close to the Atlantic *ultidecadal Oscillation
$N O A*O

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*ultiplied the .C( time series with %2
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.recipitation Climatology Dmm;yearE

1lobal data set from 2F)F : realtime, climatology shown for Gan2F)F : #ec (&2& Red lines are indicating tropical cyclones

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Fraction of Tropical Cyclone Rain DHE

Tropical cyclones create a large fraction of the total precipitation amount in some parts of the world

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Fraction of Tropical Cyclone Rain DHE

Tropical cyclones create a large fraction of the total precipitation amount in some parts of the world

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Is precipitation correlated to

T<

.rocedure0 take the $N O principal component time series and calculate the anomaly correlation coefficient for each grid cell 4e a6eraged the
precipitation anomalies o6er three month ,which increases correlation-" hown here is the ma8imum cross%correlation" Time of lag is shown below"

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.recipitation $8tremes from Tropical Cyclones

.rocedure0 for each year count whether the ma8 precipitation is from a tropical cyclone

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Return .eriod .recipitation

$stimated with and without TC for (?h *A.

'& year R. estimate DmmE (&& year R. estimate DmmE

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4ith TC No TC
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Return .eriods TC 6s" non%TC

'& year (?h precipitation R. difference Dmm;dayE between TC and non TC

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*odeling 1lobal Correlations

*odeling Approach

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@nowing the spatial and temporal correlations allows us to mimic the climate system with an analogue model for T and dri6e all regional catastrophe models with it uccess criteria0

Create e8tremes with right freJuency and se6erity *aintain obser6ed correlations between regions ; continents =e fast and efficient to run ,we need at least 2&k years modeled-

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*odeling
moothing 2 Forecast

T .Cs
Autocorrelation Autocorrelation, % long term-

Long term memory

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( K ?
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1lobal .recip Anomaly Correlation

Can model anomaly correlations between grids ; regions ; countries with this approach for any desired 6ariable $8ample shows precipitation anomaly correlations for ! A and China : red L positi6e correlation, blue L negati6e

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/a3ard *odel Components

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Runo&& Routin( )nundation
,omponent +utput $ Asia data 6olume ,2',&&&,&&& km((),&&& cells ?&,&&& catchments tochastic .recipitation #ownscaling Rainfall%Runoff *odel Routing Inundation monthly precipitation anomalies on &"(' deg grid K%hourly precipitation per catchment K h runoff, saturated areas, groundwater 2& min ri6er discharge at outlets Flood%depth at each cell
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#re'ipitation -Meteorolo("

2)b K&m cells

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! A and Asia Track *odels

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TC .recipitation *odeling

TC precipitation can be modeled with conceptual models that reflect the space%time correlation structure of TC e6ents Left figure shows a possible e8treme 2& year ma8imum TC rain reali3ation, the center figure shows the 2& year return period estimate from TC rain after 2&k years of bias corrected simulations"

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Rainfall%Runoff *odel
Local oil *oisture #istribution

Runoff M is lateral inflow to ri6er Calculated per catchment !ses water balance0 M L . : $ : d .recipitation .0 input, subtract snow and add snowmelt $6aporation $0 .enman%*onteith eJuation and a6ailable water

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R n + a c p e g a PET = ( + ( 1 + ga / g s )) Lv

torage change d calculated with semi%distributed model Runoff has a slow and a fast component 1roundwater included
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Ri6er Routing

Transport water along ri6er network Linear time%in6ariant causal method

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( x c t )2 h ( x , t )= exp ( ) 3 4Dt ( 4 D t ) x
For backwater effects ,e"g" in estuaries- use full hydrodynamic eJuations
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Response function h,8- is analytic solution to ad6ection%diffusion eJuation ,Lohmann et al" 2FFF-

Rainfall : Runoff Calibration

$8ample of using a genetic algorithm to calibrate the hydrological model

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$8ample of Calibration

Correlation R L &"F?) for =undaberg ,A! hown are time series and log%log plot

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Inundation Flood .lain *odeling

(d propagation of flood wa6es through terrain (nd order finite%6olume scheme sol6ing the shallow%water eJuations #escribes multiple sources of flood risk0

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Ri6erine flooding #am breaks torm surge
=undaberg, Australia
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.lu6ial Flood *odelling

Captures surface water flooding from intense precipitation and snowmelt Inertial (d scheme by =ates et al", (&2( Runoff ratio from runoff model calibrated rainfall

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=undaberg, Australia
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#T*s , RT* and K&m;F&m N$#

/igh%Juality #T*s used where freely a6ailable ,eg ! A, Gapan, Australia and 1=In other areas a combination of RT* and A T$R data is used Combining multiple datasets significantly increases #T* Juality

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.lu6ial Flood .atterns on #T*s

!se different #T*s to compute plu6ial flooding First e8ample K&m N$# 6s" F&m ,deri6ed from K&m- N$#

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.lu6ial Flood .atterns on #T*s

!se different #T*s to compute plu6ial flooding econd e8ample F&m RT* 6s" filtered F&m RT*

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.lu6ial Flood .atterns on #T*s

!se different #T*s to compute plu6ial flooding K&m N$# 6s" filtered F&m RT*

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1lobal $8posure

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1lobal Nulnerability

Published Curves

US Army Corps of Engineers Flood Hazard Research Centre !iddlese"# Research papers

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$oss data analysis %uilding surveys

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Component&based approach

' ' , (' (, Flo o d D e p th ,ft)' ), *' *,

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2&& yr Loss /otspots Asia

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,ombine (lobal e.posure and $ulnerabilit" to de$elop &lood s'ores and hot spots
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$ Asia Region Flood *aps

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Asia Flood *aps ,Gakarta-

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Asia Flood *aps , ingapore, eoul-

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*ore ! A Flood *aps ,NO-

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/0 State FEMA and KatRisk 'o$era(e
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+oom into NO Flood *aps

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NOC Flood *ap

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NOC Flood *ap

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*ore NO tate Flood Risk *ap

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*ore NO tate Flood Risk *ap

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*ore NO tate Flood Risk *ap

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*ore NO tate Flood Risk *ap

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*ore NO tate Flood Risk *ap

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ummary

Catastrophe models represent correlations of e8treme e6ents in space and time In this talk I made a connection between global climate 6ariables and e8treme weather e6ents 1lobal climate is correlated

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e"g" ea surface temperature and precipitation

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Asia and ! A Flood maps show areas that are 6ulnerable 1lobal flood risk score can help with underwriting risk