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World crude steel production rose 1.2% year-on-year in February with production declining in most developed economies. One exception was the UK where output at the For further information contact Kiran Ahmed kahmed@oxfordeconomics.com Sahaviriya Steel Industries Redcar plant has been ramping up since April. In China, production rose 9.8% following 11.4% growth in January. While such strong growth suggests our Q1 forecast for China is a tad pessimistic, Beijings efforts at Basic metals: Output growth cooling the real estate market are already having an impact on % year buying activity from the key construction sector. Thus stockpiles 50 Forecast are likely to be building and could potentially result in a Japan 40 correction in production trends later in the year. 30 The latest basic metals data show US iron & steel production declining sharply in February as strong imports depress domestic production. Not surprisingly, lobbying by US steel companies against these imports has intensified recently. Japanese castings and iron & steel production rose at a strong pace in January as domestic and export demand prospects have improved and inventory to shipment ratios are falling. Output remains below year-ago levels for much of Western Europe but production at some plants has been ramped up in anticipation of restocking. Poor demand prospects here though are likely to keep a cap on near-term production growth.
20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 W. Europe US
-50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics
Japan
US
Forecast
-60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics
Germany Italy
60 40 20
France
0 -20
UK
-40
W. Europe
0 Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
-60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics
Basic Metals
Non-Triad
US (LHS)
200
12 160 10 120 8
2 1 0 Mar-08 Japan US
6 4 Mar-08
Germany (RHS)
80
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
40 Mar-13
W. Europe 70
France
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
60 Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Basic Metals
Aluminium
2 1 0 Mar-08
Copper Zinc
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
USA Index
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Jan Feb 106.4 103.8 -0.9 -4.0 89.4 108.1 104.5 106.6 104.6 102.6 105.2 104.7 99.8 101.1 103.8 107.6
Japan Index
93.6 95.5 95.2 94.2 91.3 90.3 89.7 85.8 85.1 83.0 84.8
Germany Index
97.3 96.8 97.4 98.3 98.7 99.1 94.3 96.6 94.2 92.3 92.9 94.2 -
France Index
75.1 76.3 74.8 75.2 72.9 74.4 79.5 73.9 71.2 71.8 69.9 69.3 -
UK Index
76.9 76.3 74.8 82.9 80.4 80.0 78.5 76.7 78.3 74.5 74.1 70.4 -
% change
8.6 2.9 5.8 4.0 1.9 3.9 2.9 -3.3 -3.3 -1.9 0.6
% change
-5.2 8.4 8.4 8.9 3.5 1.8 -0.9 -3.3 -5.9 -6.7 -3.6 -2.2 -
% change
-3.3 -2.9 -4.7 -4.3 -2.4 -4.1 -5.3 -0.4 -4.0 -3.6 0.2 -0.8 -
% change
-12.0 -7.2 -10.4 -9.2 -8.4 -7.2 -1.0 -8.2 -11.1 -8.9 -7.8 -10.1 -
% change
-11.7 -6.6 -6.7 3.1 0.1 -1.7 -2.2 -4.5 1.0 -4.3 2.4 -7.4 -