Electronics and Computers

The latest monthly production data for electronics and computers moved broadly in line with expectations. European production in November remained weak in all of the major producers except Germany. Measures of sector confidence and companies assessment of order books have improved somewhat from their lows in October, but they remain extremely low. Overall, we remain cautious about the outlook for Europe. After an uptick of more than 7% in October, high-tech output in Japan resumed its downward trend in November. The JPY has depreciated sharply over the last six weeks, which should help ease some of the competitiveness issues facing Japanese exporters. Nonetheless, we still see the underlying trend in the Japanese electronics sector as very weak. Electronics production in the US rebounded in December following a disappointing outcome in November. Both new orders and the number of unfilled orders have been improving in recent months. We are generally optimistic about the prospects for the US high-tech sector, as it tends to specialise in the production of high-value goods.
Precision instruments: Output
2005=100 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Feb-08 Japan US Germany, France, Italy, UK

For further information contact Abby Samp asamp@oxfordeconomics.com

Electronics and computers: Output growth

% year 50 Eastern Europe 40 30 BRICs 20 10 0 -10 Forecast

Developed 2009

World 2011 2013 2015

-20 2007

Source: Oxford Economics

Electronics and computers: Output

2005=100 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Feb-08 Feb-09 Germany, France, Italy, UK Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Japan US

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Source: Oxford Economics

S ource: Oxford Economics

Computers & office equipment: Output

2005=100 250

Computers & office equipment: New orders

% year 60 Italy 40 Germany US 3 month moving average

200

US

Germany, France, Italy, UK

20

150

100

Japan

-20

50 Feb-08

-40 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Source: US Census Bureau / StaBu / Istat

Source: Oxford Economics

Monthly Industry Briefing: February 2013

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Electronics and Computers

IT hardware: Stock market indices

2005=100 160 140 120 100 80 60 EU15 40 20 Feb-08 Japan World

Electronics equipment: Stock market indices

2005 =100 125

100 Japan 75 World 50

25

EU15

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

0 Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Source: Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics

Asia: Electronics output

2005 = 100 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Feb-08 Singapore: Electronic products & components Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Korea: Electronic Engineering Taiwan: Electronic & semiconductors production equipment

Electronic engineering: New orders

% year 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 US -60 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Italy Germany 3 month moving average

Source: Haver Analytics

Source: US Census Bureau / StaBu / Haver Analytics

Electronic components: Output

2005=100 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Germany, France, Italy, UK US

Semiconductors: Sales and prices

% year 80 3 month moving average 60 World Sales 40 20 0

Japan -20 -40 Feb-08

World prices

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Monthly Industry Briefing: February 2013

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Electronics and Computers

Computers & office equipment: Prices

% year 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Feb-08 Germany US UK

Electronic engineering: Prices

% year 6 Germany, Italy & UK 4 2 0 -2 -4 US -6 -8 -10 Feb-08 Japan, wholesale prices Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Computers & office equipment: Prices

% year 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Feb-08 Germany US UK

Electronic engineering: Prices

% year 6 Germany, Italy & UK 4 2 0 -2 -4 US -6 -8 -10 Feb-08 Japan, wholesale prices Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Industry Output - Electronics and Computers

Value Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

USA Index
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Jan 148.8 4.0 143.0 143.7 143.3 145.6 145.2 146.3 146.5 144.8 145.2 145.3 148.6 149.6

Japan Index
96.8 99.5 98.6 91.1 89.3 92.9 89.5 85.2 83.0 88.9 88.1 85.0

Germany Index
162.4 166.1 164.6 164.8 167.0 168.4 172.0 161.5 148.9 158.7 153.6 154.7 -

France Index
124.7 122.8 122.6 123.6 120.1 115.9 121.1 121.7 118.8 121.5 121.9 122.4 -

Italy Index % change Index

87.2 88.0 85.9 83.9 84.9 83.8 85.2 83.1 85.8 83.1 81.7 85.9 2.7 4.8 -1.0 -5.9 -6.5 -8.9 -6.5 -7.3 2.7 -4.2 -4.7 -1.4 87.2 85.3 86.8 89.7 88.8 85.2 88.8 88.6 91.0 92.9 89.6 91.0 -

UK % change
-1.2 -4.4 -1.4 1.1 -1.2 -5.8 -3.2 -0.2 5.9 9.3 3.8 7.3 -

% change
4.6 5.0 5.4 6.6 5.4 6.4 5.8 3.7 4.0 4.6 6.6 5.7

% change
-13.2 -10.2 -4.4 -1.2 -6.9 -7.5 -12.7 -14.6 -14.5 -5.6 -1.1 -10.6 -

% change
6.4 4.8 8.3 6.3 6.4 3.5 -0.4 -5.9 -12.3 -3.8 -6.7 -4.7 -

% change
16.7 11.6 12.8 13.2 1.7 2.4 3.8 3.6 5.4 4.1 2.9 7.9 -

Monthly Industry Briefing: February 2013

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