Quantitative

Methods



Summary


Based on the script written by
Professor David Targett




















Compiled by Jrg Stegemann
June 2012

Table of Contents
Measures .............................................................................................................................. 4
Location ......................................................................................................................................... 4
Arithmetic mean ...................................................................................................................................... 4
Median.......................................................................................................................................................... 4
Mode.............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Scatter ............................................................................................................................................ 4
Range ............................................................................................................................................................ 4
Interquartile range ................................................................................................................................. 4
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) ...................................................................................................... 4
Variance ....................................................................................................................................................... 4
Standard Deviation ................................................................................................................................. 5
Coefficient of Variation ......................................................................................................................... 5
Indices ............................................................................................................................................ 5
Simple Index .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Simple Aggregate Index ........................................................................................................................ 5
Weighted Aggregate Index (Laspeyres, Paasche) ..................................................................... 6
Other Summary Measures....................................................................................................... 6
Skew .............................................................................................................................................................. 6
Kurtosis........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Distributions ....................................................................................................................... 7
ANOVA table ................................................................................................................................. 7
One-Way Analysis of Variance ........................................................................................................... 7
Two-Way Analysis of Variance .......................................................................................................... 7
Regression Analysis................................................................................................................................ 7
Binominal Distribution ............................................................................................................ 8
Normal Distribution .................................................................................................................. 9
Poisson Distribution ...............................................................................................................11
t-Distribution.............................................................................................................................12
Chi-squared Distribution.......................................................................................................13
F-Distribution ............................................................................................................................14

Significance Tests ............................................................................................................15

5 steps ..........................................................................................................................................15
Null hypothesis / Alternative hypothesis ........................................................................15
Difference in means of two samples ..................................................................................15
Difference between paired samples ..................................................................................16
Tests on proportions...............................................................................................................16
Errors in significance tests....................................................................................................16
Type 1 errors...........................................................................................................................................16
Type 2 errors...........................................................................................................................................16

Time Series Techniques ................................................................................................17

Smoothing methods steps .....................................................................................................17
Stationary series.......................................................................................................................17
Moving average ......................................................................................................................................17
Exponential smoothing .......................................................................................................................17
Series with a trend ...................................................................................................................17
Holts method ..........................................................................................................................................17
Series with a trend and seasonality ...................................................................................18

Holt-Winters method...........................................................................................................................18
Decomposition Method.......................................................................................................................18
Box-Jenkins Method .............................................................................................................................19

Forecasting ........................................................................................................................20
Qualitative Methods ................................................................................................................20
Causal Modelling ......................................................................................................................20
Time Series Methods...............................................................................................................20

Regression .........................................................................................................................21
Simple Linear Regression......................................................................................................21
Testing randomness of residuals........................................................................................21
Runs Test...................................................................................................................................................21
Multiple Regression Analysis ...............................................................................................21
Stages in multiple regression analysis .........................................................................................21
Discarding of variables........................................................................................................................22
Correlation .................................................................................................................................22
Correlation coefficient.........................................................................................................................22
R-bar-squared .........................................................................................................................................23
Collinearity ...............................................................................................................................................23

Exams...................................................................................................................................24

Measures

Location

Arithmetic mean

The arithmetic mean is calculated as


Sum of readings x

-------------------------- or ----
Number of readings n

Median

The median is the middle number of a set of values. In case of an even number of
readings the arithmetic mean of the middle two numbers is used.

Mode

The most frequent number that occurs in a set of readings.

Scatter

Range

Largest reading smallest reading

Interquartile range

Range of the middle 50% of readings: Strip of the top and bottom 25% of
readings, then use the Range calculation.

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

The mean absolute deviation is the average distance of readings from their
arithmetic mean:

|x - xmean|
MAD = --------------------------
Number of readings

Variance

The variance is the average squared difference of readings from the arithmetic
mean:
(x - xmean)2
Variance = ------------------------------
Number of readings 1


Easier to calculate for large numbers of readings:

(x2) n * xmean2
Variance = ----------------------
n - 1

Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.

Standard deviation = sqrt(Variance)

Coefficient of Variation

To compare the means of two groups the measure of scatter must be
standardised before a relative comparison can be made. The coefficient of
variation is a possible way to achieve this:

Coefficient of variation = Standard deviation / Arithmetic mean

Example:



Mean
Standard deviation Coefficient of variation
Airport 1

4 200

1 050

0.25
Airport 2

15 600

2 250

0.14

Indices

Simple Index

An index is the result of the conversion of one series of numbers into another
based on 100. One value is picked as the base value and assigned the value 100.
Previous and following values are calculated relative to this base value:

Index value = value / base value * 100

Simple Aggregate Index

An aggregate index takes into account multiple factors. Example: The price index
for meat consists of the price of beef, pigs and lamb.

To do this, add together the values for each meat in a time period. The first time
period gets assigned the value 100. Previous, following periods: See above.

Price relative index: If some inputs have very different levels the effect of a high-
value column can overshadow a low-value column. To counter this a price
relative index can be used. Here an index value is calculated per column and the
aggregate index is then based on those index values.

Weighted Aggregate Index

A weighted aggregate index allows different weights to be given to different
prices (columns). Instead of simply adding up prices the prices are first weighted
by the quantities and then added up. The final number is used to create the
combined index.

The quantities used for the weighting should be the same for all time periods as
this index measures price changes and not quantity changes. If the quantities
from the base month (row) are used the index is known as Laspeyres Index.
The Laspeyres Index tends to overestimate inflation.

To use the methods for a quantities index the roles of prices and quantities need
to be reversed.

The Paasche Index uses the weights from the most current time period. Here
the whole series has to be recalculated when a new row is added. The Paasche
Index tends to underestimate inflation.

A fixed weight index does not use the weight from the first or most recent time
period. Some intermediate time period is picked or an average is used to
calculate the index.

Other summary measures

Skew


Skew measures the extent to which a distribution is non-symmetrical. Left (or
negatively) skewed graphs show a peak to the right of the middle. Right (or
positively) skewed graphs show the peak to the left of the middle. Zero-skewed
graphs are symmetrical.

Kurtosis

Kurtosis measures the extent to which a distribution broad, i.e. how thick or
pointy the middle of the graph is. Low kurtosis means a pointier graph, high
kurtosis indicates a fatter graph.

Distributions

ANOVA table

Conventionally analyses of variance are laid out in a systematic form called an
ANOVA table (ANalysis Of VAriance table).

One-Way Analysis of Variance

Variation
Degrees of
Sums of squares Mean square F
freedom
Explained by c 1
SST
MST
MST/MSE
treatments
Error or
(r - 1) * c
SSE
MSE

unexplained
Total
r * c 1
SS



Two-Way Analysis of Variance

Variation
Degrees of
Sums of squares Mean square F
freedom
Explained by c 1
SST
MST
MST/MSE
treatments
Explained by r 1
SSB
MSB
MSB/MSE
blocks
Error or
(r - 1) * (c 1)
SSE
MSE

unexplained
Total
r * c 1
SS



Regression Analysis

Variation
Degrees of
Sums of squares Mean square F
freedom
Explained by k
SST
MST
MST/MSE
treatments
Error or
n k -1
SSE
MSE

unexplained
Total
n - 1
SS



Degrees of freedom

c = Number of columns
r = Number of rows

n = Number of observations
k = Number of independent variables in the regression analysis

Binominal Distribution

The binominal distribution is based on taking samples from a population whose
elements are of two types. A random sample of size n is taken. Because of the
randomness of the sample it could contain between 0 and n elements of type p.

Example:
20 Percent of chips produced are defective. A sample of 30 chips is inspected to
see how many are actually defective.

Parameters:

p = Proportion of the population of type 1 (1-p is the proportion of type 2)
n = The size of the sample being taken

Calculation:

P(r of type 1 in sample) = nCr * pr * (1 - p) n-r

n!
with nCr = ---------------
r! * (n r)!

How many combination possibilities are there for taking n elements out of a
population of r? Think Lotto, pick 6 out of 49 numbers:
49! / ( 6! * 43!) = 13 983 816 (chance of winning 1 in ~14 Million)

Uses of the binominal distribution:
- Inspection schemes (does the observed defect rate differ from the agreed one?)
- Opinion polls (for/against)
- Selling (sale/no sale)

Can be approximated by both the Normal and the Poisson Distributions!

Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is, when drawn, a bell shaped, continuous and
symmetrical curve. Unlike discrete distributions it is not the height of the line
that defines the probability for the normal distribution. Instead the area
between two values on the x-axis and the curve give the probability of an event
to be between both points.

The area below the curve has the following attributes:
68.26% of the readings lie between 1 standard deviation of the mean
95.44% of the readings lie between 2 standard deviation of the mean
99.74% of the readings lie between 3 standard deviation of the mean

Example:
The IQ of children has a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 17 points. This
means that:

68.26% of children have an IQ of 83 to 117

95.44% of children have an IQ of 66 to 134

99.74% of children have an IQ of 49 to 151

Parameters:
Mean
Standard deviation

For looking up values in the normal tables:

Observed value Mean
zcalc = -------------------------------
Standard deviation

When to use a normal distribution

The normal distribution should be used when observations or measurements are
taken from a population. Each observation is subject to multiple sources of
disturbances. Each of those sources changes the value of the observation slightly.
Some errors might cancel each other out (some being positive, some being
negative) so most of the measurements will fall close to a mean value. Some
observations however will experience the addition of errors and be further away
from the mean.

A lot of real-world examples exist:
- IQs of children
- Heights of people with the same sex
- Dimensions of mechanically produced components
- Weights of machine-produced items
- Arithmetic means of large samples


Approximating a binominal distribution with the Normal:

The binominal distribution can be approximated by the normal if both n * p and
n * (1 p) exceed a value of 5.

Mean = n * p
Standard deviation: sqrt(np * (1 - p))

If the proportion of defectives (instead of the number of defectives) is looked at
these values need to be used:

Mean = p
Standard deviation = sqrt((p * (1 p) / n)

When a discrete distribution is approximated by the Normal care needs to be
taken to use the correct values for the limits. For example if the probability of an
event occurring less than 50 times is required this means we need to look for

Binominal: P(r < 50)
Normal:
P(r <= 49.5)

10

Poisson Distribution

Describes the occurrence of isolated events within a continuum. Like the
binominal distribution based on taking a sample from a population of elements
of two types with the types being the occurrence and the non-occurrence of an
event. The Poisson distribution is discrete; its shape varies from right-skewed to
almost symmetrical.

Example:
Continuum: Time
Events:
- A telephone call arrives at a switchboard
- No telephone call arrives at a switchboard

The total number of elements is infinite as there are an unlimited number of non-
occurred events that are part of the sample.

Other uses include flaws in cable (cable being the continuum, flaws being the
events) or mechanical breakdown of machinery (time again as continuum,
breakdown as event).

Parameter:
= Average number of events per sample

Probability of r events occurring in a sample:

e- * r
P(r) = ----------
r!

Example:
= 2 (average number of calls arriving per minute)

P(0 calls) = 0.135 * 1 / 1 = 0.135
P(1 call) = 0.135 * 2 / 1 = 0.27

Instead of deriving the full value for every r we can incrementally calculate it:

P(r) *
P(r + 1) = -----------
r + 1

P(1) = P(0) *
P(2) = P(1) * / 2
P(3) = P(2) * / 3

Approximate a binominal distribution with Poisson:

= n * p

11

t-Distribution

Similar to the normal distribution but with longer tails it is also continuous with
a symmetrical shape. For small sample sizes the tails are considerable longer
than those of the normal distribution while for sample sizes of 30+ the t-
distribution and the normal distribution can be considered to behave the
same.

Parameters:
- Arithmetic (sample) mean
- Standard deviation
- Degrees of freedom (sample size 1)

Observed sample mean - Mean
t =
Estimate of standard deviation / sqrt(Number of samples)

When to use a t-distribution
- The population standard deviation is unknown and has to be estimated from
the sample
- The sample size is less than 30 (for sample sizes > 30 the normal could be
used)
- The underlying distribution of the population from which the sample was
taken is normal

All these conditions need to be met for the t-distribution to be applicable!

Example:
Test for length of life of 40 light bulbs -> normal distribution
Test for length of life of 20 light bulbs -> t-distribution

Uses of t:
1) Calculate limits for observed sample means to be within a confidence
limit
Look up the t-value for the given levels of freedom and the confidence
limit. With the t-value and the standard deviation and sample size
calculate the range of possible values. Apply to the mean to get lower and
upper limits for the observed means to fall within the confidence limit.
2) Test an observed sample mean to be within a confidence limit
Calculate t with the formula given above and compare the value with the
t-value from the statistically table for the given levels of freedom and
confidence limit. If the calculated value is lower than the limit the
hypothesis is accepted; otherwise it is rejected.

12

Chi-squared Distribution

The chi-squared (2 ) distribution provides the method for comparing an
observed sample variance with a hypothesised population variance. It can
answer the question: Is the observed scatter of the sample in accord with what is
thought to be the scatter of the population?

Parameters:

(n 1) * Observed sample variance
2 = ---------------------------------------------
Population variance

Using Chi-squared to test differences in proportion

For each cell calculate the expected value (based on the total). Calculate the chi-
squared value for each cell and sum them up:

(f0 fe)2
----------
fe

The test is one-sided as it tests if the chi-squared value is higher than should be
expected. Degrees of freedom = (Number of rows 1) * (Number of columns 1).
Look up critical value in chi-squared table and compare against the sum
calculated above.

13

F-Distribution

The F-distribution is used to compare the variance of one sample with that of a
second. The variable of an F-distribution is the ratio between two variance
estimates. Just as the location of two samples could be compared through the
difference in their means (by applying a normal or t-test), so the scatter of two
samples can be compared through the ratio of their variances (by applying an F
test).

Parameters:

Variance of sample 1
F = ---------------------------
Variance of sample 2

14

Significance Tests

5 steps:
-
-
-
-
-

Formulate the hypothesis

Collect a sample of evidence
Decide on the significance level
Calculate the probability of the sample evidence occurring
Compare the probability with the significance level

Null hypothesis / Alternative hypothesis

The null hypothesis usually refers to a hypothesis that the test tries to disprove.
Example: The question is if in a sample there is a significant difference between
the response of male and female patients to the treatment. The null hypothesis
would be that there is NO significant difference in the response.

The alternative hypothesis is concluded if the null hypothesis is disproved. In the
above case there seems to be a difference in the response of male and female
patients if the alternative hypothesis is accepted.

Difference in means of two samples

Two samples are taken from a population, their means and the difference
between the means calculated. The mean of the distribution of those means is 0
(means difference in samples cancel each other out).

Variance sum theorem:

Variance(x + y) = Variance(x) + Variance(y)
Variance(x - y) = Variance(x) + Variance(y)

With some dark math it follows that

Variance(xmean ymean) = 2 * V / n

Standard deviation = sqrt(2) * s / sqrt(n)

Therefore z can be calculated as:

x1, mean x2, mean
z = ---------------------------
sqrt(2) * s / sqrt(n)

15

Difference between paired samples

Create a new sample with the difference between paired values. Treat the new
sample like a basic single sample significance test with a mean of 0.

xmean 0
z = ---------------
s / sqrt(n)

Tests on proportions

Arithmetic mean = p

Standard deviation = sqrt(p * (1 - p) / n)

Errors in significance tests

Type 1 errors

Occur when a hypothesis is rejected due to a sample in the reject tail of the
distribution event though the hypothesis is in fact true. The probability of this is
equal to the significance level (the usual 5 or 1%).

Type 2 errors

These occur when a hypothesis is accepted falsely. To determine the probability
of this requires knowledge of the alternative hypothesis, which has to be
precisely defined (not: Average IQ is not 100).

The probability of correctly accepting the alternative hypothesis is the power of
the significance test.

16

Time Series Techniques

Smoothing methods

Series type
Stationary
Trend
Seasonal
Cyclical
Other

Methods
Moving averages
Exponential smoothing
Holt
Holt-Winters
Decomposition
Box-Jenkins

Stationary series

Moving average

Replace the original series with a smoothed series, replacing each value with the
average of it and the neighbouring values. Examples are three-point moving
average, five-point moving average, etc.

The calculated value can be used as the forecast for the first period after the last
value used for its calculation only!

Exponential Smoothing

Gives more weight to recent values.

St = (1 - ) * St-1 + * xt

is usually in the range of 0.1 to 0.4

The forecast can be used for the next month as only past values are used for the
calculation. As the first value in the series the first value from the original series
is used.

Series with a trend

Holts Method


Two parameters:

: Smoothing parameter for series values
: Smoothing parameter for trend values

St = (1 - ) * (St-1 + bt-1) + * xt
bt = (1 - ) * bt-1 + * (St St-1)
Ft = St + m * bt

17


xt = actual observation at time t
St = smoothed value at time t
bt = smoothed trend at time t
Ft = forecast for m periods in the future

The forecast can be used for the next month as only past values are used for the
calculation. As the first two values in the series the first two values from the
original series are used. The first value for the trend is the difference between
the first and second value of the smoothed series (which are the same as the
original series) and is in row 2. Only then do we have enough values to
properly calculate the smoothed value and smoothed trend in the following
rows.

Series with a trend and seasonality

Holt-Winters Method

The Holt-Winters Method adds a third smoothing equation for seasonality as
compared to Holts method described above. A new smoothing constant denoted
is introduced.

Seasonality is measured as the ratio between actual data and smoothed data:

Actual data
Seasonality = -------------------
Smoothed data

Decomposition Method

This method assumes that a time series can be decomposed into four distinct
elements:
- Trend
- Cycle
- Seasonality
- Random

Trend

The trend is isolated by a regression analysis between data and time. The
regression equation will look like this:

xt = a + bt + ut

where:

xt = actual data
a + bt = Trend element
ut = Residuals of seasonality, cycles and random part

18


Cycles

By choosing a suitable moving average (12 points for monthly data, 4 for
quarterly) the random and seasonal elements can be smoothed away, leaving
just trend and cycle.

If St is such a moving average then the ratio between St and (a + bt) must be the
cycle. If the ratio is approx. 1 for all time periods there is no cycle.

Seasonality

Seasonality is isolated by a similar approach to that for cycles. The moving
average (St) comprises trend and cycles. The actual value (xt) comprises trend,
cycle, seasonality and random effects. The ratio

Actual value xt
--------------------- or ---
Moving average St

should reflect the seasonality and the random effect. If the data is quarterly then
the seasonality for the first quarter can be calculated as

x1 x5 x9
Average of ---, ---, ---,
S1 S5 S9

The averaging helps in eliminating random effects.

Box-Jenkins Method

The Box-Jenkins Methods allows for compensating of previous errors as time
goes by. To do this past residuals (forecasting errors) are incorporated into the
equation. Box-Jenkins is better described as a process:

(a) Pre-whiten
(b) Identify
(c) Estimate
(d) Diagnose
(e) Forecast

19

Forecasting

Three methods for forecasting:

- Qualitative
- Causal modelling
- Time series methods

Qualitative Methods are based on using judgement rather than (historical)
data. May be the only method when dealing with new products or new
technologies.

In causal modelling the variable to be forecasted is related statistically to one or
more other variables. Assumption is that the relationship between the chosen
variable and the modelled one will hold in the future!

Time series methods analyse historical data (cycles, trends, seasonal factors)
and project the observed behaviour into the future. Used for short-term forecasts
in stable conditions.

20

Regression

Simple Linear Regression

Least squares method of regression: Minimize the sum of the squared residuals.
The residuals of the regression should be random.

Line is defined as: y = a + b * x

With

(x - xmean) * (y - ymean)
b = ------------------------------
(x - xmean)2

a = ymean b * xmean

Testing randomness of residuals

Runs test

Group the residuals by their sign. Each change of sign is a run. Having too many
runs is a sign of non-randomness as is a very low number of runs. Check the
upper and lower critical values from a statistical table with the number of
negative and positive residuals as the parameters.

If the number of observed runs is within the upper and lower critical values the
residuals appear to be random.

Multiple Regression Analyses

The idea of the Simple Linear Regression is extended to multiple variables on the
right-hand side of the equation:

y = A + B * x + C * z + D * t

These are three independent x variables: x, z, t. Their coefficients are B, C and D
while A is the constant.

Stages in multiple regression analyses

- Identify dependent and independent variables
- Examine scatter diagrams (multiple needed)
- Run regression analysis
- Calculate R2 value to determine proportion of total variation explained
- Test significance using ANOVA table and F-test
- Test significance of each coefficient using t-test (see discarding of
variables below)

21

-
-
-

Check residuals
o Plot residuals against fitted y-values
o Use Runs-test to check for randomness
Check for collinearity (see Collinearity below)
Use model for prediction

Discarding of variables

In multiple regression analyses not all variables will have a statistically
significant impact on the result. Each variable can be tested for its effect on y. For
this a t-test is used with the usual 5 stages:
(a) H0: The population coefficient for this variable is 0.
(b) The coefficient and the standard error for the variable will have to be
computed.
(c) Significance level is the usual 5 percent. This is a two-sided test hence the
5% are split into 2.5% upper and 2.5% lower tail.
(d) Degrees of freedom are n k 1 with
n = number of observations
k = The number of x variables in the regression
The observed t value is
Coefficient estimate
tObs. = -------------------------------------
Standard error of coefficient
(e) If tObs. exceeds t0.025 then the hypothesis is rejected and the variable does
have a significant impact. If the t value is lower the variable may be
eliminated from the regression equation.

Correlation

Total variation
(y - ymean)2
Explained variation
(Fitted y ymean)2
Unexplained variation
(Residuals)2

Correlation coefficient

[(x - xmean) * (y - ymean)]
r = ----------------------------------------
sqrt((x - xmean)2 * (y - ymean)2)

Correlation coefficient r can take values between -1 and +1. Values close to -1 or
+1 indicate strong (negative) correlation; values closer to 0 indicate a low (or
no) correlation.

A more intuitive understanding can be gained from the squared correlation
coefficient, r2. It is written as R2 (for no apparent reason it seems ). Logically
the correlation coefficient is calculated as:

R2 = Explained variation / Total variation

22


For R2 closer to 1 more of the total variation can be explained. The closer it is to
0 less of the total variation can be explained by the current model.

R-bar-squared

R-bar-squared is a more sensitive measure of closeness of fit. Based on the same
ratio as R2 but with an adjusted formula that allows R-bar-squared to fall when
a variable unconnected to the result is added.

Collinearity

Collinearity occurs when two (or more) of the x variables are highly correlated.
In this case multiple variables contribute some of the same information to the
end result. To avoid collinearity problems you can:

(a) Use only one of the variables (which to use is largely subjective)
(b) Combine the variables (if the aggregate has any meaning)
(c) Substitute with another variable with a similar meaning and a low
correlation

No hard and fast rules exist to deal with collinearity. Make sure you are aware of
the problem and the restrictions it places on the interpretation of the results.

23

Exams

J06

CS1: Indices, Simple aggregate index, Laspeyres, Paasche, Methodology

CS2: Difference between paired samples, t- Test, Methodology
CS3: Simple linear regression, Correlation, R2, Methodology
CS4: Time series, Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, MSE

D06

CS1: Presentation of data

CS2: Compare two sample means, F-Test, Survey methodology
CS3: Binominal distribution, Methodology

J07
CS1: One-way analyses of variance, ANOVA
CS2: Survey methodology
CS3: Hypothesis test
CS4: Time Series, Exponential smoothing, Forecasting techniques

D07

CS1: Linear regression, ANOVA, Analysis recommendations

CS2: Normal distribution, Characteristics of the normal distribution
CS3: Compare two sample means, Survey methodology
CS4: Time series, Moving average, Holts method, Methodology

J08

CS1: Indices, Simple aggregate index, Laspeyres, Paasche, Methodology

CS2: Normal distribution, Testing a sample proportion
CS3: Chi-squared, Test of difference in proportion, Methodology
CS4: Regression, R2, ANOVA, t-Test, Methodology

D08

CS1: Poisson distribution, Methodology

CS2: Two-Way analyses of variance, Methodology
CS3: Decomposition analyses, Methodology
CS4: Difference between paired samples, t-distribution, Methodology

J09

CS1: Compare two sample means, F-distribution, Methodology

CS2: Regression equation, R2, Multi-regression analyses, Methodology
CS3: Indices, Simple aggregate index, Laspeyres, Paasche, Methodology
CS4: Time series, Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, MSE

24

D09

CS1: Measures of location and range, Methodology

CS2: One-Way Analyses of variance, ANOVA, Methodology
CS3: t-Test, Methodology
CS4: Simple linear regression, Correlation, R2, Methodology

J10

CS1: Normal distribution, Methodology

CS2: Multiple-regression analyses, Collinearity, Runs-test, Methodology
CS3: Chi-squared distribution, Methodology
CS4: Time series, Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, MSE

D10:

CS1: Binominal distribution, Poisson distribution, Methodology

CS2: Holts method, Methodology
CS3: Two-Way analyses of variance, F-test for significance, Methodology
CS4: Graphs, presentation of numbers

J11

CS1: Indices, Simple aggregate index, Laspeyres, Paasche, Methodology

CS2: Simple linear regression, Correlation, R2, Methodology
CS3: Time series, Exponential Smoothing, Methodology
CS4: Compare two sample means, F-distribution, Survey methodology

D11

CS1: Chi-squared distribution, Methodology

CS2: Two-Way analyses of variance, F-test for significance, Methodology
CS3: Forecast, Decomposition analyses, Methodology
CS4: Normal distribution, Methodology

25