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Human-Triggered Earthquakes and Their Impacts on Human Security

a

Christian D. KLOSE a Columbia University, New York NY, USA

Abstract. ! comprehensi"e understanding o# earthquake risks in ur$ani%ed regions requires an accurate assessment o# $oth ur$an "u&nera$i&ities and earthquake ha%ards. Socioeconomic risks associated 'ith human-triggered earthquakes are o#ten misconstrued and recei"e &itt&e scienti#ic( &ega&( and pu$&ic attention. Ho'e"er( more than )** damaging earthquakes( associated 'ith industria&i%ation and ur$ani%ation( 'ere documented since the )*th century. This type o# geoha%ard has impacts on human security on a regiona& and nationa& &e"e&. +or e,amp&e( the -.- /e'cast&e earthquake caused 0 deaths and 1S20.3 $i&&ion damage 4in -.-5. The monetary &oss 'as equi"a&ent to 0.6 percent o# !ustra&ia7s nationa& income 48DI5 or .* percent o# !ustra&ia7s 8DI per capita gro'th o# the same year. This artic&e pro"ides an o"er"ie' o# g&o$a& statistics o# humantriggered earthquakes. It descri$es ho' geomechanica& po&&ution due to &arge-sca&e geoengineering acti"ities can ad"ance the c&ock o# earthquakes or trigger ne' seismic e"ents. Last&y( de#ense-oriented strategies and tactics are descri$ed( inc&uding risk mitigation measures such as ur$an p&anning adaptations and seismic ha%ard mapping. ey!ords. Human-triggered( earthquakes( ha%ard( "u&nera$i&ity( risk( human security( mitigation( strategies( tactics( socia& science( C&ause'it%

"ntroduction E"ery earthquake that ruptures some'here on Earth is triggered $y some stress pertur$ation in the Earth7s crust. Earthquakes occur under natura& conditions 'hen tectonic stress states change 4e.g.( at p&ate $oundaries( ri#t systems( or "o&canoes5. +or e,amp&e( natura& triggering stress pertur$ations can resu&t #rom tectonic de#ormation processes o# dri#ting p&ates 4e.g.( oceanic or continenta& against oceanic or continenta&5( de#ormations #rom prior "o&canic eruptions( or #rom sur#ace processes( inc&uding erosion 4e.g.( ri"er transport5 and sedimentation 4e.g.( ri"er de&tas5. The ma9ority o# a&& earthquakes are triggered $y natura& processes and( in particu&ar( a&ong su$duction %ones surrounding the :aci#ic Ocean( 'here oceanic crust s&ides $eneath the continents 4e.g.( ;apan( !&aska5. <ost o# these earthquakes do not a##ect human societies and economies at a&&. They occur deep in the interior o# the Earth 4=3*km5 and their damaging seismic energy does not reach the sur#ace. Human acti"ities and( in particu&ar( &arge-sca&e geoengineering constructions can a&so trigger earthquakes 'hen their induced stress pertur$ations reach or e,ceed natura& &e"e&s( such as dai&y tida& e&ongations 4strains5 o# the Earth crust $y the sun and the moon. >ased on the concept
Correspondence to? C. K&ose( Think 8eoHa%ards( @ose"i&&e C!( 1S!A christianBcdk&ose.com.

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o# a human-nature coupled system C6D( geoengineering acti"ities 4human system5 a&ter stresses in the interior o# the Earth7s crust 4nature system5 that can $ring pree,isting #au&ts to #ai&ure. This phenomenon is ca&&ed geomechanical pollution C6( 3D. Such induced stress changes( ho'e"er( may desta$i&i%e on&y sha&&o' #au&ts in the upper part o# the crust 4E)*km5. Their in#&uence tends to $e sma&& in &o'er parts( distant to the &ocations o# geoengineering acti"ities. O"er the &ast decades( se"era& studies a$out earthquakes triggered $y human geoengineering actions ha"e $een pu$&ished( inc&uding arti#icia& 'ater reser"oir impoundments( deep and open-pit mining( hydrocar$on production( and #&uid in9ectionsFe,tractions 4see ta$&e 5 CGD. This paper gi"es a $rie# o"er"ie' o# ho' human acti"ities can trigger earthquakes and ho' human-triggered earthquakes can a##ect human security C D. +urthermore( in order to determine human security issues( this chapter out&ines a &ogic approach as to ho' earthquake ha%ards( human "u&nera$i&ities( and resu&ting risks can $e estimated. +ina&&y( "on C&ause'it%7s ear&y socia& science approach C)( 0D is used to pro"ide risk mitigation and reduction strategies #or human-triggered earthquakes. #. Ho! Can Human Activities $rigger Earth%ua&es' Human-triggered earthquakes are a g&o$a& en"ironmenta& change that increases 'or&d'ide and e,ponentia&&y o"er time 4see #igure 5. These earthquakes resu&t #rom the mechanica& response o# the continenta& crust 4i.e.( e&astostatic( poroe&astic5( due to "ery sma&& induced stress pertur$ations stemming #rom geoengineering acti"ities at the su$sur#ace. These acti"ities inc&ude 4see #igure )5? sur#ace and underground mining 4e.g.( $&ack coa&5( arti#icia& 'ater reser"oirs 4i.e.( impoundment andFor operation stage5( hydrocar$on production and enhanced reco"ery 4e.g.( crude oi&( natura& gas( steam in9ections5( 'aste 'ater in9ections deep underground 4e.g.( radioacti"e( to,ic( or other ha%ardous &iquids5( in9ections o# car$on dio,ide deep underground 4to reduce greenhouse gases into the atmosphere5( geotherma& energy production in greater depth 4= *** m5( and coasta& management 4e.g.( #ormation o# arti#icia& &and5.

<ost human-triggered earthquakes rupture on pree,isting #au&ts in the Earth7s crust and re&ati"e&y c&ose to the engineering acti"ity &ocations 4*-0* km5. The physica& triggering processes induced $y the a$o"e-mentioned geoengineering acti"ities inc&ude? mass remo"a& or mass accumu&ation( inc&uding mo"ement o# 'ater( "o&umetric changes 4e.g.( contraction o# underground e,ca"ations or hydrocar$on reser"oirs5( #&uid pressure changes 'ithF'ithout #&uid #&o' in rock #racturesFpores 4e.g.( de'atering and #&ooding o# mines( reser"oir impoundments5( therma& stress changes due to temperature gradients 4e.g.( around in9ected car$on dio,ide storage sites( geotherma& reser"oirs( underground e,ca"ations5.

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(igure #. /um$er o# human-triggered earthquakes "ersus time. The earthquake cata&og is $ased on e"ents 'ith moment magnitudes <'=6.3.

(igure ). /um$er o# human-triggered earthquakes 'ith respect to the type o# geoengineering acti"ity( inc&uding mining 4 0H5( arti#icia& 'ater reser"oir impoundment 4HG5( oi&FgasF#&uid e,traction 4).5 and #&uid in9ections 4H5. The earthquake cata&og is $ased on e"ents 'ith moment magnitudes <'=6.3.

Statistics indicate that human-triggered earthquakes most&y occur in sta$&e continenta& regions 4=H3 percent5. These regions are characteri%ed $y a "ery &o' nature-triggered seismicity 4E3 percent5( 'here earthquakes tend to rupture "ery c&ose 4*- * km5 to the sur#ace C60D and tectonic conditions are sta$&e o"er "ery &ong periods 4e.g.( thousands( tens o# thousands( or mi&&ions o# years5. !cti"e continenta& regions 4e.g.( Ca&i#ornia( ;apan( or Turkey5( in contrast( sho' a "ery &o' human-triggered seismicity 4E)3 percent5 $ut a high nature-triggered seismicity 4=-3 percent5 C66D. The

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&o' human-triggered seismicity rate in acti"e continenta& regions might a&so $e due to the #act that &ess attention is paid to seismic e"ents in these regions and that most earthquakes are assumed to $e o# natura& origin. Earthquakes &ike Ca&i#ornia7s <3.Ihittier-/arro's e"ent o# -.H( #or e,amp&e( ha"e sho'n ho' &arge-sca&e geoengineering acti"ities 4e.g.( hydrocar$on production5 can ha"e ma9or e##ects on human security C)6( )3D. This e"ent caused 1S203. mi&&ion in damage and eight #ata&ities 4see ta$&e 5. O"era&&( de#ormation rates o# the Earth7s crust in sta$&e and acti"e continenta& regions determine the recurrence #requency o# earthquakes C63D. Thus( any additiona& triggering stress pertur$ation 4e.g.( due to human acti"ities5 on top o# the natura& stress accumu&ation 4e.g.( due to tectonic de#ormation5 can ad"ance the c&ock o# a rupture or can trigger ne' seismic e"ents. T'o types o# triggering mechanisms are kno'n( a5 static stress pertur$ations 4e.g.( tectonic #orces( natura& erosion( 'ater accumu&ations in arti#icia& reser"oirs5 and $5 transient or dynamic stress pertur$ations 4e.g.( seismic &oads #rom other earthquakes( seasona& 'ater &e"e& changes in 'ater reser"oirs5. >oth types o# triggering ha"e di##erent e##ects on the c&ock ad"ancement o# an e,pected main shock at the end o# an earthquake cyc&e. Static changes app&ied ear&y in a cyc&e ad"ance the c&ock o# the main shock much more than app&ied &ate in the cyc&e. In contrast( transient stress pertur$ations app&ied ear&y in an earthquake cyc&e ad"ance the c&ock o# the main shock much &ess than app&ied &ate in the cyc&e. In addition( &ong-periodic 'a"es 4e.g.( annua& 'ater &e"e& changes5 ad"ance the c&ock more than short-periodic 'a"es 4e.g.( shock 'a"es 'ithin a #e' seconds5 C6GD. Thus( t'o #actors determine the potentia& o# human-triggered earthquake ha%ard in the "icinity o# geoengineering acti"ities( a5 conditions o# the nature system 4i.e.( geo&ogica& and tectonic conditions o# the Earth7s crust5 and $5 conditions o# the human system 4e.g.( engineering operations5. /atura& tectonic stresses in sta$&e continenta& regions can $ui&d up o"er &ong periods o# time 4e.g.( in !ustra&ia( !#rica( and many parts o# !merica( Europe( and !sia5. These stresses initiate #au&ts c&ose to #ai&ure 'ithout o"ercoming the strength o# the rock in the #au&ts. Thus( #au&ts in sta$&e continenta& regions and( in particu&ar( 'ith high stress concentrations can $e "ery earthquake trigger-sensiti"e due to their &ong earthquake cyc&es 4e.g.( = *( *** years5 C66( 6HD. These regions( as mentioned a$o"e( are particu&ar&y sensiti"e to static or transient stress pertur$ations. This sho's that the nature system primari&y determines the potentia& o# triggering a ma9or earthquake. The physica& triggering processes( induced $y geoengineering acti"ities( are comp&icated. Some processes can $ring #au&ts c&ose to #ai&ure( 'hi&e simu&taneous&y other processes $ring the same #au&t a'ay #rom #ai&ure. Stress a&terations that desta$i&i%e a #au&t 'ou&d $ring the same #au&t a'ay #rom #ai&ure i# the geo&ogicFtectonic conditions 'ere di##erent or i# the in"o&"ed processes 'ere re"ersed. De'atering o# deep mines o# the /e'cast&e coa&#ie&d in south'est !ustra&ia is a good e,amp&e to i&&ustrate ho' mass remo"a& can $ring #au&ts c&ose to #ai&ure C)0( 6D. In contrast( seismic in"estigations at the Tar$e&a 'ater reser"oir in :akistan sho'ed e"idence o# ho' mass accumu&ation $y the reser"oir impoundment in -H6 &ocked a seismica&&y acti"e part o# the crust in up to H* km depth $eneath the arti#icia& &ake 4true negati"e e,amp&e5 C6.D.

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). Ho! *o Human+$riggered Earth%ua&es Affect Human Security' !s a#orementioned( the num$er o# human-triggered earthquakes is much sma&&er in comparison to nature-triggered earthquakes. Their socioeconomic impacts( ho'e"er( are disproportiona&&y higher( $ecause human-triggered earthquakes on&y occur in regions c&ose to the geoengineering acti"ities( i.e.( rura& and ur$ani%ed areas( occur most&y in natura&&y sta$&e continenta& regions( 'ith =-* percent o# the 'or&d popu&ation( nuc&eate in "ery sha&&o' depths 4* J )*km5( 'hi&e damaging seismic energy can reach the Earth sur#ace( can create &asting seismic acti"ities in areas that 'ere initia&&y sta$&e 4e.g.( !ustra&ia( Europe5 C)0( G3D.

2 ! "##ects on National Security The -H3 <3.) SKnna earthquake and the -.- <3.G LM&kershausen earthquake in 8ermany 'ere t'o se"ere human-triggered seismic e"ents occurring in the same region. The SKnna earthquake caused a mesoseisma& intensity o# LIII resu&ting in a damage o# a$out 1S2 0 mi&&ion 4)**- "a&ue5. The LM&kershausen e"ent se"ere&y damaged up to .* percent o# the city o# LM&kershausen 'ith a mesoseisma& intensity LIII-IN C6 ( )GD. >esides the socioeconomic &osses caused $y these seismic e"ents( they triggered po&itica& tensions $et'een t'o neigh$oring states( the +edera& @epu$&ic o# 8ermany 4+@85 and the #ormer 8erman Democratic @epu$&ic 48D@5.) >oth countries accused each other to ha"e triggered the earthquakes( due to deep potash mining and sa&t 'ater in9ections( respecti"e&y C6 ( )GD. The po&itica& tensions $et'een $oth countries &ed to in"estigations o# their secret ser"ices. E"idence sho's that the <inistry #or State Security o# the 8D@ 4<#S( OStaatsicherheitP5 in"estigated against its o'n peop&e to preempt demonstrations and potentia& turmoi& against a5 the common centra&i%ed p&anned mining practices and $5 the communist regime( 'hich ended its e,istence in --* a#ter a peace#u& re"o&ution. The president o# the 8D@( E. Honecker( mentioned in a discussion 'ith +@87s <inister #or Specia& !##airs @. Seiters on 0Q6 ;une -.- C)HD? $%here has to be discussions about the rock burst o# &'lkershausen (ased on e)perts opinion in the *+,, in-ections o# saline water on the western side can be seen as the sole reason . The mining techno&ogy o# the company O&"( /ombinat /ali(P 'hich operated in the centra&&y p&anned economy o# the <ar,ist state 8D@( continuous&y reduced pi&&ar si%es in the mines to increase producti"ity.0 This $rought the strength o# the pi&&ars do'n to a critica& &e"e& and acce&erated stress concentrations in the "icinity o# the mines. On the other hand( the O/ali und Sal0P mining #irm in the +@8 continuous&y in9ected sa&ine 'aste'ater in the 3**Q.**m thick o"er$urden o# the mining region and
) >oth 8erman states 'ere #ounded in -6-( #our years a#ter the end o# Ior&d Iar II. The +@8( $ased on princip&es o# #ree-market economy( originated #rom the 'estern occupied %ones o# the 1nited States o# !merica( 1nited Kingdom( and @epu$&ic o# +rance. The 8D@ 'as a se&#-dec&ared communist state that originated #rom the eastern occupied sector o# the So"iet 1nion. 0 1nti& --*( the 8D@ 'as the 'or&d7s &argest potash producer( 'hich accounted #or a quarter o# the g&o$a& mining output 40** mi&&ion tons per year5.

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induced annua& 'ater &e"e& changes o# more than 0*m. >oth processes $rought neigh$oring steep oriented #au&ts to #ai&ure and caused the damaging earthquakes in SKnna and LM&kershausen( inc&uding se"ere mine co&&apses. Since --0( 'hen the potash mining production ended in this area( more than )** mi&&ion 1S2 4)**- "a&ue5 'ere in"ested to re#i&& the underground e,ca"ation in order to mitigate the ha%ard &e"e& #or ne' earthquakes and mining co&&apses.

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$a$&e . Se&ection o# human-triggered earthquakes 'ith signi#icant e##ects on human security. <onetary &osses are gi"en #or the year )**- and 4year o# the earthquake5A )**- "a&ues are 0.3R-in#&ation ad9usted. /I! S no in#ormation a"ai&a$&e.

a. http?FFearthquake.usgs.go"Fregiona&F'or&dF'or&dTdeaths.php. $. http?FFearthquake.usgs.go"Fregiona&F'or&dF'or&dTdeaths.php. c. http?FFg$pihed.go".inFen"isFHT<LF"o&.)F"o&.)-te'ari.htm. d. http?FF'''.yearo#p&anetearth.org. e. http?FFearthquake.usgs.go"FeqcenterFeqarchi"esFsigni#icant. #. >o%eman Dai&y Chronic&e? )..*.. -3- and )0. *. -G6. g. http?FFearthquake.usgs.go"FeqcenterFeqarchi"esFsigni#icant. h. !ssociation o# >ritish Insurers. i. http?FFearthquake.usgs.go"FeqcenterFeqarchi"esFsigni#icant.

2 2 "##ects in "conomic Security Socioeconomic &osses o# human-triggered earthquakes can $e "ery high. The -.-/e'cast&e earthquake in !ustra&ia 'as a cost&y earthquake triggered $y deep coa& mining C)0( 6D. The e"ent caused 0 deaths and damages estimated at 20.3 $i&&ion 41.S.( -.- "a&ue5( 'hich 'as 0.6 percent o# !ustra&ia7s -.- nationa& income 48DI5 4source? !ustra&ian >ureau o# Statistics5. +urthermore( the #inancia& &oss 'as equi"a&ent to G* percent o# the !ustra&ian 8DI gro'th and .* percent o# the 8DI per capita gro'th $et'een -.. and -.-. It a&so accounted #or 0 percent o# the tota& costs o# a&& natura& disasters and -6 percent o# the costs o# a&& earthquakes recorded in !ustra&ia #rom -GH to --- C6D. This resu&t suggests that mining-triggered earthquakes can ha"e

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serious impacts not on&y on the region c&osest to the geoengineering acti"ity $ut a&so on a nation7s income. 2 1 "##ects on 2uman 2ealth It has $een reported C6-D that ma9or earthquakes and &ong-&asting micro-earthquakesU 'hether nature or human triggeredUdo ha"e negati"e psycho&ogica& e##ects on the popu&ation. The 3livetti 2eart Study C6-D( #or e,amp&e( reported on &ong-term psycho&ogica& e##ects caused $y earthquake tremors that occurred near :o%%uo&&i 4/ap&es5 in Ita&y $et'een -.0 and -.6. This se"en-year &ongitudina& scienti#ic study( starting in -.* a#ter the <G.. Irpinia earthquake( #ocused on e"a&uating risk #actors #or $oth a5 coronary heart disease and $5 psycho&ogica& distress symptoms. @esearch #indings o# this study sho' that residents( e,periencing the earthquakes( had su##ered under &ong-&asting distress symptoms( such as s&eep distur$ance( an,iety( hosti&ity( and depression. In addition( symptoms tend to amp&i#y 'hen residents e,perienced #inancia& &osses andFor e"acuations during a ma9or seismic e"ent 4e.g.( the Irpinia earthquake5. The )**. <H.- Ienchuan earthquake has sho'n that such a de"astating geoha%ard e"ent can ha"e acute impacts on $rain #unctions in sur"i"ors( simi&ar to symptoms o$ser"ed in posttraumatic stress disorders C33D. Latest resu&ts o# ongoing research studies suggest that the Ienchuan earthquake 'as triggered t'o and a ha&# years prior to the main shock $y the impoundment o# a near$y 4E *km5 arti#icia& 'ater reser"oir o# the Vipingpu dam C3*-36D. T'o and a ha&# years prior to China7s <H.- Ienchuan earthquake o# <ay )**.( up to . $i&&ion metric tons o# 'ater 40*** times the 'eight o# the Empire State >ui&ding in /e' Work City5 accumu&ated 'ith seasona& 'ater &e"e& changes o# 3*m in the <in9iang @i"er La&&ey at the eastern margin o# the Longmen Shan. The triggering pertur$ations o# the reser"oir enhanced the acti"ity o# sma&&er earthquakes during the impoundment cyc&es 4see #igure 05. The added stresses accounted #or * to G* years 4E*.G percent5 o# equi"a&ent tectonic &oading on the near$y #au&t %one( 'hi&e $eing strong&y corre&ated 'ith the coseismic s&ip C3 ( 3)D.

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(igure ,. @e&ationship $et'een the 'ater &e"e& change o# the Vipingpu 'ater reser"oir and the seismicity 4<=*.35 o# its "icinity prior the )**. <H.- Ienchuan earthquake C3)D.

,. Evaluation of Ha-ard. /ulnerability. 0is&. and 1ncertainty Estimating the occurrence 4 and intensity 4magnitude5 5 o# human-triggered earthquakes is associated 'ith uncertainties( as #or any other geoha%ard 4e.g.( storms( "o&canoes( &ands&ides5. This a##ects the o"era&& socioeconomic risk &e"e& @ in space 4latitude( longitude5 and time 4t5 and #ina&&y the human security C D S? , 6 2 min & 6 74 8 59 min &, S6 J,

4 5 4)5

2 indicates the &e"e& o# the ha%ard and & the &e"e& o# the socioeconomic "u&nera$i&ity. >oth( "aria$&es are #unctions o# space and time? 2 6 24lat, long, t5 and & 6 & 4lat, long, t5. Equation de#ines risk , and security S #rom a &ogic perspecti"e. The t-norm min is a #u%%y &ogic !/D-operator C3.D 4here? minimum "a&ue o# 2 and & 5. The operator heuristica&&y trans#orms #u%%y sets o# 2 S C*( D and & S C*( D into sets o# , S C*( D or S S C*( D. This &ogic ru&e can $e semantica&&y e,pressed as #o&&o's? OI+ 2a0ard !/D &ulnerability THE/ ,isk.P

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There are t'o ad"antages o# de#ining risks &ogica&&y. +irst( humans tend to ha"e no records on impacts o# e,treme e"ents 4&o'-pro$a$i&ity5 such as earthquakes. Thus( the #requency 4 or occurrence time is associated 'ith a high uncertainty 4. >ut( humans ha"e an understanding 4#ee&ing5 on possi$&e ha%ard intensities 5 and impacts or scenarios. Hence( a &ogic approach is more intuiti"e and use#u& unti& more data are o$ser"ed and empirica&&y acquired. Second( the approach , 6 2 X & o# simp&y mu&tip&ying 2 and &( as suggested $y the 1nited /ations( C3GD is a &egitimate 'ay( $ut the a&ge$raic product is under-estimating risks #or non-e,treme ha%ard or "u&nera$i&ity "a&ues. +or e,amp&e( a monitored re&ati"e ha%ard &e"e& is OmediumP 2 S *.3 and the re&ati"e "u&nera$i&ity is a&so OmediumP & S *.6-. The resu&ting risk 'ou&d $e OmediumP as 'e&& 'ith *.3 min*.6- S *.6-( #o&&o'ing the &ogic approach. In contrast( the approach suggested $y the 1/ 'ou&d resu&t in a much &o'er risk &e"e& o# *.3 X*.6- S *.)3. This &eads to an underestimation o# the e,pected risk and an o"erestimation o# the e,pected human security. 8enera&&y( the risk and security uncertainties associated 'ith human-triggered earthquakes are certain&y high. >ut( they are much sma&&er in comparison to uncertainties associated 'ith nature-triggered earthquakes( $ecause &ocation and productionFoperationFconstruction p&ans are accurate&y and precise&y kno'n. Thus( triggering stress pertur$ations at potentia& earthquake nuc&eation points can $e mode&ed in space and time( 'hi&e e,isting popu&ation densities and economic assets are a&so kno'n. 8aussian error propagation sho's that risk uncertainty , and security uncertainty S are sma&&er 'hen app&ying a &ogic approach

405 in comparison to the traditiona& approach

465 Equations 0 and 6 sho' that the traditiona& approach o# determining geoha%ard risks resu&ts in higher uncertainties than a &ogic approach 'ith imp&ications #or #urther risk mitigation strategies or tactics. Thus( a risk-a"erse or risk-acceptant decision maker 'ou&d decide #or a &ogic approach o# ca&cu&ating e,pected risk and security &e"e&s. +ina&&y( the &argest uncertainty o# the resu&ting riskFsecurity resu&ts main&y #orms the natura& system( inc&uding the geo&ogica& situation and the kno'&edge a$out historic earthquakes( i.e.( pa&eo-seismicity. :o&icy too&s cou&d $e imp&emented( #or e,amp&e( i# regions o# potentia& earthquake nuc&eation points can $e identi#ied. Scienti#ic e##orts cou&d concentrate in those regions to e"a&uate the natura& system 4source o# geoha%ard5 more precise&y 4see #igure 65. In case o# the SKnna and LM&kershausen earthquakes( po&icy too&s 'ere imp&emented in the ear&y --*s to mitigate the ha%ard &e"e& #or ne' earthquakes and mining co&&apses. Since --0 more than )** mi&&ion 1S2 4)**- "a&ue5 'ere in"ested to re#i&& the underground e,ca"ations.

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2. 0is& 3itigation and 0eduction Strategies E,pected risks associated 'ith human-triggered earthquakes depend on $oth the ha%ard 4o# the potentia&&y threatening phenomenon5 and the "u&nera$i&ity 4see eq. 5. T'o types o# strategies e,ist 'ith se"era& tactica& measures to mitigate e,pected risks and impro"e human security. ! strategy is a de#ined 'ay that has to $e taken to reach a required goa& o# minimi%ing risk 4ma,imi%ing human security5 C0D. Tactics can $e understood as those measures that #o&&o' such a de#ined 'ay. Car& "on C&ause'it% #ormu&ated a Otheory-&a'-$a&ancedP #rame'ork( 'hich is compara$&e to today7s concepts o# socia& science C)D. +urthermore( "on C&ause'it% argues that theories are more appropriate to de"e&op strategies( 'hereas &a's are app&ica$&e #or tactica& 4operationa&5 measures. >ased on "on C&ause'it%7s #rame'ork( risk mitigation strategies and tactics inc&ude( #or e,amp&e? mitigateFreduce potentia& ha%ards understand geo&ogica& and tectonic conditions that support p&anned geoengineering acti"ities 4e.g.( stress pertur$ations5( per#orm geomechanica& &ong-term mode&s( conduct geophysica& monitoring 4e.g.( C3HD5 generate ha%ard maps 4see #igure 65( change the operationFproduction techno&ogy according&y( mitigateFreduce e,istingF#uture "u&nera$i&ities create e##ecti"e and e##icient emergency response p&ans and institutions( shi#t geoengineering acti"ities a'ay #rom ur$an areas( shi#t ur$an areas a'ay #rom geoengineering acti"ities( rein#orce $ui&ding structures( change $ui&ding codes( change ur$an p&anning.

Tactica& measures to mitigating ha%ard &e"e&s 4i.e.( threat5 #o&&o' an Oo##ensive strategyP to reducing the se"erity o# the threatening seismic e"ent. On the other hand( measures that mitigate "u&nera$i&ities #o&&o' a Ode#ense strategy(P 'hi&e responding to and pre"enting the threat. In addition( many o# "on C&ause'it%7s proposed strategiesFtactics are de#ense oriented. E"en more( he argues that de#ense is a stronger #orm o# 'ar( $ecause the time that passes unti& a threat occurs accumu&ates to the credit o# the de#ender? O$eati sunt possidentesP 4#ortunate are those in possession5 C0D. The a"ai&a$&e time unti& an earthquake occurs can $e used to imp&ement po&icy too&s to increasing "u&nera$i&ities and( thus( impro"ing the o"era&& human security 4e.g.( to rein#orce $ui&ding structures5. 8eoha%ard reduction measures( on the other hand( can $e app&ied on&y to human-triggered threatening e"ents. Impacts o# nature-triggered geoha%ards 4e.g.( "o&canic eruptions( tsunamis5( a&&o' on&y "u&nera$i&ity reduction measures to ensure human security. 4. (uture Ha-ard Hots5ots The acce&erating g&o$a& c&imate change and an increasing g&o$a& energy demand 'ith e,pected supp&y shortages #orce economies and societies to #ind a&ternati"e energy

COPY: Achieving Environmental Security: Ecosystem Services and Human Welfare.

sources. On top o# this they try to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions( 'hich are thought to increase g&o$a& 'arming. This( in turn( has $een stimu&ating entrepreneurs since the $eginning o# the ) st century to #ind ne' so&utions and options a5 to producing &arger amounts o# geotherma& energy #rom deep underground and $5 to sequestering car$on dio,ide 4CO)5 deep underground to achie"e a reduction o# atmospheric emissions. >esides e,isting geoengineering practices 4e.g.( arti#icia& 'ater reser"oir impoundments or deep mining5( it can $e anticipated that ne' earthquake ha%ards increase in the "icinity o# geotherma& po'er p&ants and car$on capture and sequestration 4CCS5 sites. : ! *eothermal "nergy ;roduction 8eotherma& energy production is proposed as an a&ternati"e energy source( due to an increasing g&o$a& energy demand and e,pected shortages( in particu&ar( o# hydrocar$on energy supp&ies throughout the ) st century. >oth the e,traction o# hot 'ater in deep $oreho&es and the rein9ection o# co&d 'ater in distant $oreho&es can generate a geotherma& energy production cyc&e unti& the hot rocks deep underground 4)-Gkm5 coo& do'n and the therma& energy source ceases. The production cyc&e( ho'e"er( can $e pertur$ed 'hen too much #&uid is e,tracted 4see #igure 35 or in9ected CG3D. Large amounts o# 'ater masses can $e remo"ed or accumu&ated during the &i#espan o# a deep geotherma& po'er p&ant. These 'ater mass im$a&ances( again( a&ter the stress states o# the Earth7s crust and can set o## earthquakes. Se"era& e,amp&es ha"e $een reported( inc&uding( #or e,amp&e( the <0.. >ase& earthquake in S'it%er&and in )**G 4see ta$&e 5( the <0.) Lardere&&o-Tra"a&e earthquake in Ita&y in -.) CGGD( and the<0.* Chipi&apa!huachapan earthquake in E& Sa&"ador in -- CGHD.

COPY: Achieving Environmental Security: Ecosystem Services and Human Welfare.

(igure 2. Ha%ard map o# potentia& coa& miningQtriggered earthquakes in an area o# the /e'cast&e coa&#ie&d in /e' South Ia&es 4!ustra&ia5. The squares sho' the &ocations o# underground coa&mines in appro,. 3**m depth. The resu&ting stress changes in the Earth7s crust are qua&itati"e&y indicated $y the &a$e&s OLo' Ha%ard(P O<edium Ha%ard(P and OHigh Ha%ard.P The pro9ection o# the #au&t that ruptured during the -.<3.G /e'cast&e earthquake 4star5 in a$out *km depth intersects 'ith the area o# high and medium earthquake ha%ard. +urthermore( the ur$ani%ed area o# the city o# /e'cast&e 4OHigh Lu&nera$i&ityP5 a&so coincides 'ith the area o# medium and high ha%ard. This indicates 'hy the /e'cast&e earthquake had such high impacts on the human security C)0( 6D.

The Sa&ton Sea geotherma& po'er p&ant in southern Ca&i#ornia might $e one o# the ne' hot spots o# triggering a ma9or earthquake. The po'er p&ant is p&aced in an area that interconnects t'o ma9or #au&ts( the San !ndreas +au&t 4S!+5 E)*km in the north and the Imperia& +au&t 4I+5 E)*km in the south 4see #igure G5. This interconnection %one is ca&&ed >ra'&ey Seismic Vone and has $een characteri%ed $y an increasing seismicity #or se"era& decades. >et'een -.) and )**H( 0** mi&&ion tonnes o# underground 'ater 'ere e,tracted #rom this area. The current and e,pected mass im$a&ance caused $y the geotherma& po'er p&ant is o# concern( since the 1.S. 8eo&ogica& Sur"ey identi#ied the southern part o# S!+ as the most &ike&y source o# a "ery &arge earthquake 4<=H5 in Ca&i#ornia in the "ery near 4$ut unkno'n5 #uture. Despite the #act that tectonic #orces dominate the seismic acti"ity in the "icinity o# the Sa&ton Sea geotherma& po'er p&ant( any additiona& triggering stress pertur$ations on S!+ cou&d ad"ance the c&ock o# such a ma9or e"ent. This 'ou&d reduce the time to imp&ement proper po&icy too&s to ensure human security. O$ser"ations sho' that the seismicity increased in the >ra'&ey Seismic Vone 'ith the production o# geotherma& energy 4see #igure 35. The num$er o#

COPY: Achieving Environmental Security: Ecosystem Services and Human Welfare.

earthquakes 4<' =05 per area in the >ra'&ey Seismic Vone is t'ice the e"ent rate per area in the **X)**km) 4/orth-SouthXEast-Iest5 surrounding region o# southern Ca&i#ornia and northern <e,ico. The corre&ation coe##icient $et'een the net 'ater e,traction and the e"ent rate is *.3-A again more than t'ice the corre&ation coe##icient in its "icinity 4*.)*5.

(igure 4. !nnua& 'ater e,traction 4E5( in9ection 4I5( net 'ater e,traction 4E-I5( cumu&ati"e 'ater e,traction at the Sa&ton Sea geotherma& po'er p&ant in southern Ca&i#ornia 41S!5 $et'een -.) and )**. 4production data are a"ai&a$&e through the Ca&i#ornia Department o# Conser"ation5 and the e"ent rate o# earthquakes 4e"ents per year5 o# the >ra'&ey Seismic Vone 4gray $ars5 in comparison to the **X)**km) 4/orthSouthXEast-Iest5 surrounding region o# southern Ca&i#ornia and northern <e,ico 4$&ack $ars5. The re&ationship $et'een 'ater e,tractionFin9ection and the e"ent rate in the >ra'&ey Seismic Vone sho's that the num$er o# earthquakes has $een increasing 'ith the amount o# net 'ater e,traction. The $&ack arro's indicate magnitude 3 e"ents that occurred $et'een -H. and )**-. 4Seismic data are a"ai&a$&e through I@IS UIncorporated @esearch Institutions #or Seismo&ogy.5

: 2 C32 Se<uestration The amount o# CO) that 'ou&d need to $e in9ected in geo&ogica& sinks( such as deep sa&ine aqui#ers to achie"e a signi#icant reduction o# atmospheric emissions( is "ery &arge. +or e,amp&e( a *** mega'att 4<I5 coa&-#ired po'er p&ant emits appro,imate&y 0*(*** t o# CO) per day( * mi&&ion tonnes 4<t5 per year( and hence appro,imate&y 0** <t o"er a typica& &i#etime o# 0* years. The resu&ting mass change o# CO) in9ected underground in an area o# ** km) or more C3-D is enough to change the "ertica& in situ stress in the Earth7s crust $y *.* <:a in a depth o# * km. +&uid pressure increases in e,cess o# *. <:a 'ou&d e,tend o"er an area o# more than )(3** km) C3-D in sha&&o' depth 4E).3km5. These stress a&terations e,ceed tida& stress &e"e&s o# the sun and the moon and can ad"ance the c&ock o# earthquakes or trigger ne' e"ents. Se"era& geo&ogica& CCS options e,ist( inc&uding in9ections in dep&eted crude oi&

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and natura& gas reser"oirs CG*D( in coa& $eds #or methane production CG D( in sa&ine aqui#ers CG)D( or in rocks that enhance minera&i%ation o# CO) CG0D. /one o# these options ensures an immediate trapping o# the &iquid CO). The in9ected $u$$&e migrates through pores( #ractures( and #au&ts CG6D and migrates to'ard the sur#ace due to its $uoyancy. Thus( regions near in9ection sites are prone to a higher earthquake ha%ard. O##shore car$on capture and sequestration 4CCS5 acti"ities can set o## earthquakes. Such tremors can trigger su$marine &ands&ides( 'hich( in turn( may cause tsunamis that put coasta& regions at mu&ti-ha%ard risks.

(igure 6. 8eo&ogica& and seismo&ogica& situation near the Sa&ton Sea geotherma& po'er p&ant in southern Ca&i#ornia 41S!5. The 'hite $o, indicates the samp&ing area o# earthquakes 'ith moment magnitudes < '=0 surrounding the in9ection and e,traction $oreho&es o# the po'er p&ant $et'een -H. and )**-. The &argest magnitude 3 earthquakes are indicated $y their years o# occurrence. <a9or #au&ts are sho'n as dark &ines( inc&uding San !ndreas +au&t 4S!+5( Imperia& +au&t 4I+5( Superstition Hi&&s +au&t 4SH+5( Superstition <ountain +au&t 4S<+5( Coyote Creek +au&t 4CC+5( C&ark +au&t 4C+5( and E&sinore +au&t 4E+5. The 'hite high&ighted region i&&ustrates the >ra'&ey Seismic Vone 4>SV5.

Conclusion Human-triggered earthquakes are an en"ironmenta& ha%ard that has $een e,ponentia&&y gro'ing since the )*th century. This type o# geoha%ard is associated 'ith &arge-sca&e geoengineering acti"ities 4e.g.( mining( 'ater reser"oir impoundment( oi&Fgas production( and #&uid in9ectionFe,tractions5. It can ha"e serious imp&ications #or &ongterm human security. Historica& data speci#ica&&y sho' that such acti"ities can ad"ance the c&ock o# natura& seismic cyc&es or trigger ne' earthquakes. These seismic e"ents( in turn( can start a#ter decades and can &ast #or decades. Historica& e"idence has a&so sho'n that the most common strategy to cope 'ith human-triggered earthquakes is reconstruction and not risk reduction( 'hich might $e e,p&ained $y the disposition e##ect( a $eha"iora& $ias o# decision makers. The e##ect might $e e,p&ained $y the prospect theory CG.D and descri$es that decision makers are

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more 'i&&ing to recogni%e potentia& gains and un'i&&ing to recogni%e potentia& &osses. Thus( true risk reduction strategies that address ha%ard pre"ention and "u&nera$i&ity mitigation need more scienti#ic( &ega&( and pu$&ic attention( inc&uding ur$an p&anning adaptation and ha%ard-mapping. <odern geotechno&ogies uti&i%ed 'ithin ur$an areas are going to increase 'or&d'ide( inc&uding arti#icia& 'ater reser"oirs( mining( car$on sequestration( or deep geotherma& energy production. Countries a$undant in natura& resources 'i&& increase the e,p&oitation o# their resources $y e,tracti"e industries 4e.g.( hydrocar$on( hydro&ogica&( geotherma&5. Thus( due to the continuing increase in producti"ity and the si%e o# g&o$a& geoengineering acti"ities( it can $e anticipated that human-triggered earthquakes 'i&& continue a##ecting human security in $oth de"e&oping and de"e&oped countries. Ac&no!ledgement I 'ou&d &ike to thank( in particu&ar( :eter Liotta( 'hose tired&ess e##orts made this $ook possi$&e. I a&so 'ant to thank Teressa Haas and other scho&ars at the :e&& Center #or their editoria& 'ork on my chapter. +ina&&y( I am grate#u& #or the #eed$ack #rom t'o anonymous re"ie'ers in socia& science and seismo&ogy 'ho asked tough questions to impro"e my 'ork. 0eferences
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COPY: Achieving Environmental Security: Ecosystem Services and Human Welfare.

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