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MEMORANDUM
TO:

ROB SIMMS NRCC BRIAN C. TRINGALI BJ MARTINO MICHAEL WIENER A SURVEY IN MINNESOTAS SEVENTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT FEBRUARY 7, 2014

FROM:

RE: DATE:

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our latest survey of registered likely voters in Minnesotas Seventh Congressional District The !ational "epu#lican Congressional Committee commissioned The Tarrance Group to conduct a telephone survey of !$%&& registered likely voters in this district ' random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of (% )* in )+ out of ,&& cases "esponses to the survey were gathered -e#ruary ./+0 1&,% Simply put0 Collin 2eterson may #e one of the most vulnera#le incum#ent Democrats in 'merica today The congressional seat is a "epu#lican one #y wide measure and 2eterson3s incum#ency measures are low 2etersons re/elect score is particularly low with 4ust a third 5..*6 feeling he deserves re/election More voters see the incum#ent as part of the pro#lem than part of the solution 2eterson is only showing %7* on the initial #allot Torrey 8estrom0 who has 4ust started his campaign0 should capture much of that undecided vote Turnout modeling on the initial #allot

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would put the race as a toss/up today 9ndeed0 after hearing a short description of 8estrom0 a +,* ma4ority move to the challenger :ur conclusions are #ased0 in part0 on the following findings from this latest survey of the electorate in Minnesotas Seventh Congressional District;

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This is a "epu#lican district despite the fact that Collin 2eterson has #een an incum#ent since ,))& "epu#licans currently hold a ,./point advantage in voting and an ,,/point advantage when it comes to a generic preference for which party might represent them in Congress ' %<* plurality of voters would prefer to have a "epu#lican representing them 2'"T= 2">->">!C> 2arty 9D Generic ?allot * * %& %< .. ,< 1< .7

G:2 @ndecided D>M

' ma4ority of voters in the district think that Collin 2eterson has done a good 4o# in office :f course0 4o# approval is a#out past performance and0 therefore0 not sufficient for re/ election More importantly0 there is no intensity for 2eterson on his approval rating 2>T>"S:! '22":A'B 'pprove @nsure Disapprove +C* 5,C* strongly6 ,)* 1.* 5,&* strongly6

?oth measures of incum#ency indicate that Collin 2eterson is very vulnera#le 'ny re/ elect score lower than %&* is considered vulnera#le The fact that only a third of the voters in this district think that 2eterson deserves to #e re/elected and half are already looking for a new person Aoters are also more likely to #elieve that 2eterson is part of the pro#lem 5%,*6 than part of the solution 5.+*6 9!C@M?>!T M>'S@">S C:M2'"9S:! "e/elect score Aiew of Deserves ..* Solution .+* @nsure ,<* @nsure 1+* !ew person +&* 2ro#lem %,*

2eterson #egins this race showing only %7* of the vote against a largely unknown challenger :#viously0 Torry 8estrom is an impressive candidate0 #ut his campaign is 4ust getting off the ground Turnout modeling suggests that the race is already too close to call :nce voters are read a short couple of sentences a#out 8estrom0 a ma4ority move to supporting him

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Aoters were told0

Torrey Westrom is a state senator who grew up on a farm in Elbow Lake. After losing his eye sight in a farm-related accident at age 1 ! he has become an ad"ocate for people with disabilities. #e is a successful small businessman with a record of creating $obs and fighting for e%uality of funding for rural schools.&

8estrom @ndecided 2eterson

?'BB:T C:M2'"9S:! 9nitial 9nformed * * .) +, ,+ ,% %7 .7

D D D

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