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Bank Interest Margins Are Likely To Widen But U.S. Taper And Domestic Competition Hold Uncertainty Rising Exposure To China Is A Key Risk For Hong Kong Banks Credit Losses From Mortgages In Hong Kong Banks Are Likely To Be Small Factors That May Trigger Rating Actions Related Criteria And Research
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Hong Kong Banking Outlook 2014: China Risk Remains, U.S. Taper Holds Some Uncertainty For Margins
The credit profiles of Hong Kong banks hinge mainly on their exposure to China and the performance of the economy there. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services believes Hong Kong banks will maintain their credit profiles in 2014. The interest margin of Hong Kong banks could widen because of the U.S. Federal Reserve's downsizing of its monthly bond buyback, but domestic competition for deposits holds some uncertainty. On the other hand, property prices in Hong Kong are softening. We expect property prices to decline 10% in 2014 and the impact on credit quality of mortgages to be limited. In our assessment, the economic and industry risk trends for Hong Kong's banking sector are stable. Standard & Poor's assumes in its base case that Hong Kong's economy growth will remain stable. We also believe the banks will continue to manage their exposure to China conservatively. Overview Hong Kong's financial markets may become more volatile as the U.S. Federal Reserve reduces its bond-buying program. Bank exposure to China continues to be a risk to credit quality. We project Hong Kong's property prices to fall by 10% in 2014, and the impact on credit quality of mortgages to be limited.
Bank Interest Margins Are Likely To Widen But U.S. Taper And Domestic Competition Hold Uncertainty
We expect Hong Kong banks' interest margins to rise gradually in 2014, despite some uncertainty from the U.S. Federal Reserve's reduction in monthly bond buybacks (commonly called tapering) and Hong Kong's domestic competition on deposits. Our base-case assumption is that the Fed will end its asset purchase in the third quarter of 2014. We expect U.S. dollar liquidity condition to tighten, which may raise long-term interest rates, depending on market expectations. This could boost Hong Kong banks' lending rates and, thus, their interest margins. However, the competition for deposit in the industry may lead to higher deposit rates, thus offsetting some of the benefit on margins. A more visible improvement in interest margin could come in 2015 on a full-year basis if the rising rate trend continues. Nevertheless, we caution that higher market volatility during the U.S. Fed's tapering may introduce some uncertainty to the interest margin of Hong Kong banks.
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Hong Kong Banking Outlook 2014: China Risk Remains, U.S. Taper Holds Some Uncertainty For Margins
Credit Losses From Mortgages In Hong Kong Banks Are Likely To Be Small
Residential property prices in Hong Kong started softening, after the U.S. Fed first announced plans for tapering and the Hong Kong government implemented a series of counter-cyclical prudential measures, which included lowering the loan-to-value ratio and imposing special stamp duties. As of Jan. 26, 2014, the Centaline leading property price index was down about 5% from the 2013 peak (recorded March 17, 2013); the index gained about 3% in 2013. Our base case is a 10% decline in residential property prices in 2014, and we expect the impact to the credit quality of mortgages to be limited. The risk of a 20%-30% weakening is low, in our view, because of the relatively tight supply condition. In an unlikely event that residential property prices fall 20%-30%, we expect potential credit losses from the residential mortgage portfolio in Hong Kong banks to be small. Our view considers the regulator's supervisory measures, including prudent limits on loan-to-value ratios of 50%-70% at origination in most cases. The Hong Kong government has proposed a resolution plan for financial institutions in distress. This plan could reduce the potential need of digging into public coffers to support such distressed institutions, in our view. We will assess the
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Hong Kong Banking Outlook 2014: China Risk Remains, U.S. Taper Holds Some Uncertainty For Margins
tendency of the government to provide support, the systemic importance of specific banks, and the relevant ratings when more details on the resolution regime at a later stage. At this stage, we assess the government to be "highly supportive" of systemically important banks and maintain our assessment of individual banks' importance to the system.
Issuer rating
SACP
2012 A (0.2)
2012 A 66.8
AA-/Stable/A-1+
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.0
(0.1)
12.9
14.3
92.2
82.7
BBB+/Stable/A-2
bbb
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.1
(0.1)
(0.1)
10.6
12.1
66.6
66.5
AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+
a+ a-
3.4 1.2
1.9 0.9
0.2 0.3
0.3 0.3
(0.0) 0.1
(0.0) 0.1
13.6 11.3
12.2 10.4
70.9 58.7
66.6 55.6
A/Stable/A-1
bbb+
1.0
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
11.2
10.7
77.0
70.4
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Hong Kong Banking Outlook 2014: China Risk Remains, U.S. Taper Holds Some Uncertainty For Margins
Table 1
Table 2
Economic risk factors and descriptors Economic risk Economic resilience Economic imbalances 3 Very low risk High risk
Institutional framework Very low risk Competitive dynamics Systemwide funding Low risk Very low risk
Related Research
Hong Kong Property Developers Brace For A Weaker Market In 2014, Jan. 12, 2014 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Hong Kong, Dec. 17, 2013 Asia-Pacific Credit Outlook 2014: A Sigh Of Relief As Growth And Market Risks Subside, Dec. 10, 2013 Credit Conditions: North America's Credit Conditions Remain Favorable Despite The U.S. Government Shutdown, Dec. 9, 2013 2014 U.S. Banking Industry Outlook: Mostly Stable Ratings As The Credit Cycle Nears A Turning Point, Dec. 9, 2013 U.S. Economic Forecast: Two Economies Diverged In A Wood, Dec. 5, 2013 Resolution Plans For Global Banks May Eliminate government Support For Some, But Progress Is Varied, Dec. 4, 2013
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