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The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin-America 1960-2010 People, Strategy and Calendar

People The project will cover 8 large countries in Latin-America. There will be one team for each country. The following is a list of the countries included in the project, together with the main author/s and current affiliation - of the paper corresponding to each country.

Argentina Paco Buera (UCLA) Juanpa Nicolini (Minneapolis Fed and Di Tella)

Bolivia Carlos Gustavo Machicado (Instituto de Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo) Brazil Marcio Garcia (PUC, Rio)

Chile Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (U. Catolica de Chile)

Colombia Guillermo Perry (FEDESARROLLO) Miguel Urrutia (Universidad de los Andes) Ecuador Simon Cuevas (Universidad de las Americas)

Mexico Alejandro Hernandez (ITAM) Felipe Meza (ITAM)

Peru Cesar Martinelli (ITAM)

Venezuela Diego Restuccia (University of Toronto)

Purpose The purpose is two fold. First, we want to construct a coherent, comparable and consistent data base on a series of monetary and fiscal indicators for all countries. The data set will be made available to the general public once the project is over. Second, we want to write the history of all countries, using a common set of simple existing macroeconomic models. We expect though they may happen neither theoretical innovations, nor complex econometric estimations. Rather, we hope that a systematic look at the evidence, through the lens of a common theoretical framework, will help us understand the deep roots of the macroeconomic instability that plagued the region with the obvious heterogeneity across countries during the period. The 1980-2000 period, was one of economic stagnation for Latin-America. The average GDP per capita, relative to the US, went form 33% in 1980 to 23% in 2000. We do not know how much of it is due to the macro instability created by bad fiscal and monetary policies. If ours is a successful project, the first steps in that quest would have been done. We aim at publishing a book in the US, edited by the coordinators, with a chapter for each country and a final chapter with the main conclusions. We will also explore the possibility to publish a series in Spanish, with a book for each country, in which we can get into much more detail of the history and, particularly, the lessons, for each country. Strategy The project coordinators (Tim Kehoe, Juanpa Nicolini and Tom Sargent) will prepare a first document proposing a list of variables for the data base and the theoretical framework to be used on each of the papers. We expect to get feedback from all the authors and will then send a new iteration. We will then get together at the Minneapolis Fed for the first conference, in which we will further discuss the conceptual framework and the first versions of the papers will be presented. We will put together a list of discussants, mostly with academic backgrounds for this first conference. Briefly after the first conference, a new document will be distributed to the authors with a very close to final version of the conceptual framework. Thus, we view this final theoretical framework as the joint product of the views of all the participants. The heterogeneity of the group in terms of previous experience is thus one of our most valuable assets. A few months after the first conference, we hope to be able to make a half-day workshop, in each of the countries, to discuss among local economists and policy makers, the chapter concerning that particular country. We will obviously need a local institution as a local organizer (Di Tella will organize it in Argentina). For further details on how to proceed with this, contact Juanpa (juanpa@minnepolisfed.org)). After these workshops, there will be a round of paper revisions by the coordinators. These revised versions there will be then presented at the second and final conference, also to be held at the Minneapolis Fed.

Calendar 1. March 31st. We will send a first document describing the proposed methodology and the data. We view this document as the stating point of a process that will hopefully converge before we get together for the second conference. 2. August 30th and 31st , 2010: First Conference in Minneapolis. 3. September 30th, 2010. New version of the document is distributed to the authors. 4. November 2010 May 2011. Available dates for local workshops. 5. August or September 2011: Second Conference.