Security in the Wider Black Sea Region

There is no uniform understanding of the delimitation of the Wider Black Sea Region. From a strict geographical perspective, it defines the areas bounding territories of the six states adjacent to the Black Sea: Russia or the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Georgia, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. A politico-economic approach also incorporates Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan1. Russia remains a considerable regional power struggling to impose its energy policy in this area and maintain the neighboring states in its sphere of influence. It is also trying to slow or halt the placement of a United States Ballistic Missile Defense System (US-BMDS) within Eastern European countries and to prevent North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European Union (EU) expansion eastwards, thus generating tensions as in the situation of energy security. Then, Ukraine and Georgia are still considered under the influence of Moscow while at the same time participating in partnership and cooperation programs with the EU and NATO. Romania and Bulgaria are members of NATO and the EU. Turkey, also a NATO member, is a strong candidate for EU membership, but having many inconsistencies in this regard. Finally, Moldova, Armenia and Azerbaijan belong to the category of countries with a critical level of danger2, all involved in territorial disputes. The Wider Black Sea Region is continually at risk and threats of globalization and its associated negative consequences, as well as risks and threats favored or amplified by globalization. Beyond the persistent frictions between the main players in the Wider Black Sea Region there can be identified a number of risks and threats, which include but are not limited to frozen conflicts considered real challenges of reconciliation3, international terrorism, organized crime and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Security in the Wider Black Sea Region Frozen Conflicts The frozen conflicts are defined as those in which violent ethno-political conflict over secession has led to the establishment of a de facto regime that is recognized by neither the international community nor the rump state from which the secession occurred.4 The Wider Black Sea Region, especially the Caucasian area, presents a major risk of instability for the regional security environment due to its frozen conflicts. When addressing this issue in the area four major examples can be identified, namely: Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Abkhazia, located in northwestern Georgia, declared unilaterally its autonomous status in 1992 and was recognized by Russia as an independent republic in 2008. The relationship between Abkhazia and Georgia was always tense, as evident in Russian support provided to Abkhaz leaders. Georgia ensures the connection between the Caspian resources and Central Asia, which attracted the giant oil companies from Western Europe and the U.S. The events of 2008, when Russia attacked Georgia, constituted a warning for Georgia who clearly entered on the path of Euro-Atlantic integration as well as for NATO and the EU in terms of the initiative of extending to Eastern Europe5. Furthermore, these events have reflected its role in the Black Sea energy equation and the efforts done on both sides to integrate Georgia into the Euro-Atlantic community versus keeping it under control of Russia. South Ossetia is also located in Georgia and in terms of its position in relation to Moscow and Tbilisi, has a similar status to Abkhazia. In 2008, Russia recognized not only Abkhazia as an independent state but also South Ossetia, a fact condemned by international organizations due to violation of Georgia's territorial integrity. Also in this situation, it cannot identify a medium-term solution for this situation because the parties involved in the conflict have completely different interests and approaches. The five-day war in South Ossetia in 2008 2

Security in the Wider Black Sea Region represented a warning of potential conflicts in the region as well as a show of force for the EuroAtlantic community whose presence in the proximity of Russia is unwanted. Transnistria, a breakaway republic, is located in the eastern part of Moldovan territory. It is supported by the Russian 14th Army, which was deployed to this area to protect the majority Slavic population consisting of Ukrainian and Russian ethnics. The Moldovan authorities aim at developing a special legal status for the separatist republic while at the same time keeping the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria. The failure of negotiations to determine the status of Transnistria in relation to Moldova and Russia is due to inflexible position of Transnistrian authorities seeking only for strengthening political and military cooperation with Russia and getting independence. Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave inside Azerbaijan inhabited by a majority of Christian Armenians and a minority of Muslim Azerbaijanis. A movement for the independence of the province erupted in 1989, when clashes between Azerbaijanis and Armenians considerably increased, and continued after independence of Armenia in 1991. Also in this situation, the regional security actors divided into two parts: while the Russian Federation supported the Armenians, Turkey assisted Azerbaijanis in the province. Conflict is unresolved and mediation attempts have failed to reach an agreement between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis. All these conflicts have an intrinsic link to the other risks and threats in the Wider Black Sea Region as a matter of their persistence which keeps the States where occurs in an economic, political and social stagnation or even regression. It affects undeveloped weak countries, with a poor population creating a low-level security problem, not only for themselves, but also for the bordering states. This produces a favorable environment for the manifestation of international terrorism and organized crime.

Security in the Wider Black Sea Region International Terrorism Instability created by the existence of frozen conflicts and economic-politico-social difficulties affecting countries in the region add a favorable context to the manifestation of international terrorism. Furthermore, the Black Sea is one of the last frontiers between countries engaged in the war against terror and Middle Eastern countries considered as the source of this plague of the contemporary world. The international terrorism in the Wider Black Sea Region was considered more a risk than a threat until specifically manifested in 2012, when a suicide bomb attack in Burgas, Bulgaria targeted a group of Israeli tourists. The event in Bulgaria brought into focus, not only the risk for all the Black Sea countries to be targeted by terrorist organizations, but also the potential of the region to become the source or the scene of conflicts involving players from the international arena. Recent developments in the security environment of the Wider Black Sea Region have shown that the fight against international terrorism could be also used as cover to pursue other interests. In this respect, in the context of civil war in Syria, Russia has opposed the overall position of the international community supporting the Assad regime but hold in March 2013 a naval counter-terrorism exercise in the Mediterranean Sea, near Syria, using ships of the Black Sea Fleet as a message both to Syria and Black Sea region 6. In Russia, terrorism manifests itself in the form of actions done by the paramilitary forces from the autonomous republics, mostly Muslim, in the North Caucasus namely: Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia and North Ossetia. The most recent examples are the bombing attack in Stavropol and the suicide attack on the Moscow metro in 2010 as well as the attack on the airport Demodedovo in 2011, all resulting in numerous casualties.

Security in the Wider Black Sea Region Organized Crime The existence of frozen conflicts implies the growing prevalence of organized crime due to difficulty to provide optimal control of the borders. Relevant is the situation of Transnistria, which has consistently contributed to the growth and commercialization of drug trafficking throughout the region7. A brief overview of these transnational issues inventoried by Central Intelligence Agency in the World Factbook reveals that drug and people trafficking is a constant for all the countries in this area. Thus, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and Turkey are transit countries for drugs and people of Asian origin and this generates another vulnerability related to money laundering through local casinos. Drug and human trafficking is not the only organized criminal activity in the region. The Black Sea area is often associated with the main black market for nuclear smuggling. The fact that plutonium and enriched uranium deposits increased considerably and these dangerous substances are not always stored in conditions of maximum security amplifies the risk that terrorist networks may or have gained access to nuclear materials and weapons of mass destruction. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is another sore point for the security environment in the Wider Black Sea Region, as in this area much of the world's nuclear arsenal is concentrated, with Russia still possessing the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. In this respect, one of the latest security dilemmas -- namely the implications of placement of elements of the US-DMDS in Eastern Europe countries -- creates tensions between Russia and the U.S. and their allies. Turkey could be affected by the civil war in Syria. As a matter of fact, there is clear evidence this country still retains / stores chemical weapons and it looks like it has recently used 5

Security in the Wider Black Sea Region them against insurgents. Even though Syria has agreed to prohibit chemical weapons production, it seems that in that country there are still large amounts of such weapons. If we analyze the situation in Syria in light of possible fall of Assad regime, we find that the arming of the civilian population may favor the Kurd terrorist networks in the region to reach and further use these weapons against Turkey. Security in the Wider Black Sea Region will maintain its characteristics, at least in the medium term, given the complexity and heterogeneous nature that characterize it. Vulnerabilities, risks and threats are maintained by the geopolitical specificity of the area and the fact that regional and strategic powers have conflicting approaches -- dictated by their various national interests. The harmonization of these interests is not to be achieved in the medium term considering recent developments in relations between Russia and Euro-Atlantic community. In conclusion, as long as the relationships between the main security players in the Wider Black Sea Region remain divergent, it is not expected that the level of security and stability to achieve visible progress. ENDNOTES
1

Ersan Bocutolu /Gkhan Koer, Politico -Economic Conflicts in the Black Sea Region in the Post-Cold War Era,

http://www.core-hamburg.de/documents/yearbook/english/06/BocutogluKocer-en.pdf, accessed June 26, 2013.

2

The Fund for Peace, The 9th Failed States Index 2013, http://ffp.statesindex.org/rankings , accessed June 29, 2013. Resolving Frozen Conflicts The Challenges of Reconciliation, http://www.marshallcenter.org/

mcpublicweb/MCDocs/files/College/F_Publications/perConcordium/perConcordiamV1N2English.pdf , article from perConcordiam electronic publication, Volume 1, Number 2, accessed June 30, 2013.
4

Dr. Mary Alice C. Clancy and Dr. John Nagle, Frozen Conflicts, Minority Self -Governance, Asymmetrical

Autonomies In search of a framework for conflict management and conflict resolution. Paper presented to the 6 th Asia-Europe Roundtable, 10-12 June 2009 University of Ulster, Londonderry/Derry, Northern Ireland and

Security in the Wider Black Sea Region

Letterkenny,

Republic

of

Ireland,

http://www.fes-asia.org/media/publication/2009_AER_Paper_Frozen%20

Conflicts_Clancy_Nagle.pdf, accessed June 25, 2013.

5

Ariel Cohen, Robert E. Hamilton, The Russian Military and The Georgia War: Lessons and Implications,

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1069.pdf, accessed June 25, 2013.

6

Russia's naval exercise is message both to Syria and Black Sea region, http://www.todayszaman.com/news-

311131-russias-naval-exercise-is-message-both-to-syria-and-black-sea-region.html, article from Todays Zaman publication, accessed July 01, 2013.
7

Central Intelligence Agency - The World Factbook: Moldova, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/geos/md.html, accessed July 01, 2013.