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26 November 2007
Predicted 1y10y
Realized 10y
Fed Funds
Trade Overview
Trade Overview
Upward sloping yield curves present short rates that exhibit a rate bias
Trade Rationale
The notes have a automatic redemption mechanism linked to a Target level - when the sum of coupons paid attains the target level, the note is redeemed and all further payments are cancelled The note offers an high initial fixed coupon, fixed close to the redemption level. Subsequent coupons are floating payments linked to the difference between 6.5% and the USDCMS10 The notes may redeem as early as 15 months from issuance in case CMSUSD10 is sufficiently lower than the strike level Target Redemption notes high-yielding short-term investment in exchange for investors assuming the risk of long-term poor performance
Q6-Y10 Redemption NO
Coupon = (6.5% - CMS10)*Daycount Sum of Coupons above Target
YES
Redemption Coupon=Target Sum of Coupons
YES
3.50% 3.00% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CMS10y Forwards
Since the unfolding of the credit events the implied forward volatilities on the 10y swaps have risen significantly This gives the investor the opportunity to enter into the structure at a closer-to-target initial coupon level The near end of the USD forward curve has dropped substantially, the forwards on the longer maturity swaps have not been significantly depressed The high level of the 10y forwards gives investors the opportunity for good short term yield enhancement The long position the investor holds in the underlying Cap on 10Y CMS at 6.50% strike is inexpensive as it is substantially out of the money
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
O ct-07
Nov-07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
CMS10y Forwards
CMS1y Forwards
Historical Performance
Investors sell the risk of long term performance for yield enhancement in a Target Redemption note. Backtesting over the last 10 years indicates that the note has always redeemed within a half year of commencement of the variable coupon payout. The structure has redeemed with within on the first variable coupon payment date almost 78% of the time.
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