Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.

com) DOI: 10.1002/jid.1753

POVERTY, ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND OUTCOMES LATER IN LIFE

MARK TOMLINSON* and ROBERT WALKER University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of various factors in childhood (such as poverty, parental guidance, educational orientation, self-esteem and delinquent behaviour) on outcomes later in life. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey which incorporates a survey of children aged 1115 years (also known as the British Youth Panel (BYP)) the technique of Structural Equation Modelling is employed to show the relative impact of these factors on educational attainment and employment status when the respondents were in their late 20s. Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Keywords: childhood; well-being; poverty; transmission of disadvantage; structural equation models

INTRODUCTION

There is a large body of evidence from economically advanced countries, notably the United States and Britain, documenting the transmission of disadvantage across generations and a growing interest in this in the developing world. However, risking over-simplication, different disciplines have tended to focus on different outcomes and different routes of transmission. Educational outcomes have attracted much attention from economists, social policy specialists, demographers and psychologists with economists focussing on the role of income and psychologists on such mechanisms as parental emotional investment and behaviour. Psychologists have also explored the impact of poverty on physical, cognitive and emotional development; sociologists on social mobility, teenage pregnancy, homelessness and crime; epidemiologists on drug abuse and physical and mental health outcomes; and economists and social policy specialists on employment as well as citizenship and civic participation.1
*Correspondence to: Mark Tomlinson, Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford, 32 Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2ER, UK. E-mail: mark.tomlinson@socres.ox.ac.uk
1 See, for example, Istance et al., 1994; Craine, 1997; Dean, 1997; Hobcraft, 1998; Aber et al., 2000; Ermisch et al., 2001; Flouri and Buchanan, 2004; Lister, 2005; Stewart, 2005 and Fahmy, 2006.

Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1163 There has been little cross-referencing between studies of transmission conducted in advanced economies and those undertaken in a development context.2 Again this might simply reect different disciplinary perspectives but possibly also environmental differences in that factors such as malnutrition, illiteracy and disease might be dominant in the developing world while social and psychological variables could be more important elsewhere. However, it is increasingly argued that differences are conceptually matters of degree rather than kind and that there is a considerable scope for bidirectional learning between the global South and North (White et al., 2005). Hence, using British data, this paper exploits cross-disciplinary insights and explicitly demonstrates the power of recent conceptual and technical advances to advance our understanding of the nature and relative importance of the complex factors inuencing the impact of poverty and childhood well-being on outcomes in adulthood. The focus is on the effects on early adulthood of poverty experienced by children when they are aged between 11 and 15 years and the data derive from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS). Data are currently available for 19912008 with, from 1994, information derived from questionnaires completed by young people aged 1115 years in the panel households. This is known as the British Youth Panel (BYP). Children in the Youth Panel become part of the main panel when they reach 16 years of age and are continuously interviewed thereafter on an annual basis. Using structural equation models (SEMs)which link various factors and their causal relationsthe signicance of the impact of poverty and well-being in adolescence will be related with labour market and educational outcomes when the children reach their late 20s. In essence SEMs take observed phenomena such as manifestations of well-being, say, and organise them into underlying concepts on theoretical grounds. It then becomes possible to estimate the signicance of relations between the concepts and other dependent variables. Thus the links between well-being and other aspects of childhood can be established and their impacts on future outcomes assessed. There are potential methodological lessons that can be drawn on in this analysis for the study of transmission of poverty and well-being of children in developing countries. There has been relatively little empirical analysis of these issues in developing economies. This has partly been because of limited data (Moore, 2001), but this is beginning to change with the advent of panel data and more child-focussed data in less developed countriesfor example, the Young Lives project initiated in 2001 and the South African Birth-To-Twenty project initiated in 1990 (see Moore, 2005). Moreover, there is increasing attention paid in contemporary research to the importance of well-being as a central component of childrens rights in developing as well as industrialised, high-income or even OECD nations (Bradshaw et al., 2007; Cameld et al., 2009), but no consensus on how the various dimensions of well-being are to be measured. The main objective of the paper is to demonstrate that structural equation modelling can be a useful and powerful tool for policy analysis where longitudinal data are available on children and their household circumstances, and in particular the outcomes for children when they reach adulthood. The data currently becoming available mentioned above lend themselves well to the type of analysis demonstrated here. The paper proceeds as follows: some of the literature and debates on childhood well-being and the transmission of disadvantage are reviewed. There then follows a detailed description of the data and

Important recent exceptions include Behman et al. (2010) and Engle and Black (2008). J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

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methodology (structural equation modelling) to be employed. The results are then discussed and policy conclusions drawn. 2 DIFFERENT DISCIPLINES AND DEBATES

One potential problem with many of the studies mentioned above is that, apart from the psychological research which employs SEMs, there is a reliance on regression methods which essentially measure outcomes in adulthood as a function of a set of linear independent variables derived from childhood experience. The main shortcoming of regression is that complex pathways and relations between different aspects of childrens lives are not explored as meticulously as they might be. This paper seeks to investigate potential causal models that begin to disentangle the relations between various aspects of childhood and childhood well-being (such as the experience of poverty, parenting and home life, delinquent and risky behaviour, self-esteem and educational attitudes) and relate these to various outcomes later in the childs life, specically to educational attainment and occupational status. 2.1 Parenting, Child Well-being and the Childs Environment

While the evidence is that childhood disadvantage has long-term detrimental effects, there is an emerging body of work that suggests this scarring may both be moderated (changed in degree) and mediated (changed in terms of process) by a range of inuences. Parents may identify the risk of transmission and seek to act in a compensatory fashion, while children themselves may be able to exploit intrapersonal and extrapersonal assets to recover from, or overcome, adversity (for example, see Gershoff et al., 2003). Intrapersonal assets might include friends and family ties, while extrapersonal assets might include teachers, counsellors or other social networks. Psychologists have also directed attention to the role of individual agency and resilience among children that has been linked to both endowment (in terms of ability) and resourcefulness (Masten, 2001), ideas echoed in the new sociological studies of childhood (Mayall, 2002; Wyness, 2006). Another potentially important mediating inuence of child poverty on adult outcomes is childhood well-being. US and recent British research shows childhood well-being to be related to childhood poverty (Bradshaw and Mayhew 2005; Land et al. 2006) for reasons that are not well understood, but which probably include protective behaviour by parents (Flouri, 2004) as well as individual resilience (Masten and Coatsworth, 1998). Thus the role of parental guidance in the transmission process and in fostering child well-being is crucial in determining a childs future life chances (Ross et al., 2009). Children may nd themselves protected by parents and other family members, but at another level disadvantage and poverty may be the cause of inadequate parenting (for example, see Barth et al., 2006; Katz et al., 2007). There is also the issue of children who are orphaned or who have little contact with parents. In the analysis below this aspect cannot be explored due to lack of available data, but it may be important to take into consideration in different countries with different cultures and diverse familial arrangements. 2.2 The Importance of Education

Structural mediators have also been identied in the literature on transmission. For example, the negative educational outcomes associated with child poverty can often be
Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1165 counterbalanced by attributes of the childs school such as the schools social mix: also parental interest in education, the family environment and familial support with respect to education can counteract the lower test scores associated with poverty and living in deprived neighbourhoods (McCulloch and Joshi 2001; Blanden 2006). However, increased testing at schools has also been shown to have a detrimental impact on a childs self-esteem if a child is already underachieving (Davies and Brember, 1998, 1999; Layard and Dunn 2009). Indeed, many studies link educational performance with self-esteem (see Marsh 1992; Haney and Durlak 1998; Emler 2001; McLennahan et al. 2003) although the direction of causation is often unclear. Juxtaposed with the structural factors inuencing education are the impacts of delinquent and risky behaviour on educational attainment. Many studies have shown a signicant deleterious link between delinquency and educational performance and hence future employment opportunities (Monk-Turner, 1989; Tanner et al. 1999; Hannon, 2003). Moreover these effects appear to be more acute among poorer children than more afuent ones (Hannon, ibid.). In terms of social mobility there are numerous potential explanations as to why poor children may nd it hard to escape from disadvantaged origins and education provides one key explanatory variable. Many sociologists explore transmission of disadvantage in terms of class mobility rather than the inheritance of inequality in terms of income (Erikson and Goldthorpe, 2002). And empirically it is well established that the strong association between class of origin and class of destination prevails in modern societies and the predominant mediating factor in this is education. However, even after taking education into account, signicant effects of social class can persist into adulthood: Children of disadvantaged class origins have to display far more merit than do children of more advantaged origins in order to attain similar class positions (Breen and Goldthorpe, 1999: 21). In addition to the disadvantages of class, which are particularly prevalent in the UK, there are also the signicant effects of being female or coming from a non-white ethnic background in terms of pay and other factors.

2.3

The Impact of Poverty and Social Exclusion

Many sociologists point to the persistence of social exclusion and isolation that is often associated with detachment from the core labour market but frequently neglect the impact that this has on children (Gallie et al., 2003). Several studies have shown that unemployment has negative effects in social life (Paugam, 1995; Gallie, 1999). For instance, the stigma and loss of earnings attached to under or unemployment often leads to marital problems (Lampard, 1993), and psychological distress (Whelan et al. 1991). Divorce and separation have been shown to have a potentially detrimental effect on a childs self-esteem (Adam and Chase-Lansdale 2002; Clarke-Stewart and Brentano, 2006). The various aspects of strain that families with low income and unemployed members undoubtedly endure have inevitable consequences for the children affected (Ridge, 2002; Lloyd, 2006) although some children prove to be more resilient to these pressures than others (Masten and Coatsworth, 1998; Masten, 2001). Several economic studies have also revealed a signicant link between childhood poverty and social exclusion and future poverty, job prospects and educational outcomes. For example, using cohort data, Blanden and Gibbons (2006) and Blanden and Gregg (2004) have shown the negative effects of low income on educational accomplishment. The
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impact of poverty on a childs future life-chances has also been extensively researched by social policy experts (see, for example, Such and Walker, 2002; CDF, 2007; Griggs with Walker, 2008; HMT, 2008; LCPC, 2008). For instance, problems related to longstanding illnesses, obesity and higher risk of accidents associated with childhood poverty also appear to persist into adulthood (Dowling et al., 2004; DCSF, 2007).

2.4

The Timing of Transmission

The literature is often silent on the timing of transmission, the susceptibility of children to discrete events and the nature of their long-term consequences (although there are notable exceptions such as Schoon et al., 2002). Social and behavioural scientists in the USA (primarily economists and psychologists) tend to focus on early childhood (Brooks-Gunn and Duncan, 1997; Cavanagh and Huston, 2006; Cunha and Heckman, 2008) and the early school years (Fryer and Levitt, 2004, 2006; Sylva and Pugh, 2005), but there is also evidence that events in late childhood and adolescence may have particular saliency (Hill et al., 1998; Pergamit et al. 2001; Deng et al., 2006; Han and Waldfogel, 2007). The results presented below focus on impacts manifested during this period of adolescence, dened as 1115 years of age. Other research has also taken this approach in the USA (for example, Pittman and Chase-Lansdale, 2001; Adam and Chase-Lansdale, 2002; Feinberg et al., 2007; Goosby, 2007; Gutman and Eccles, 2007). In UK, Schoon has explored career outcomes based on teenage aspirations (Schoon, 2001), and educational resilience among 16-year-olds (Schoon et al., 2004).

STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELS

This paper employs SEMs to measure concepts such as educational orientation and selfesteem. The application of these concepts and the others used here is explained in more detail in the next section. The principal means by which SEMs are used to measure unobserved or latent concepts is via conrmatory factor analysis (CFA). A rst order CFA simply attempts to measure underlying latent variables and the correlations between them. In a SEM these concepts are usually represented diagrammatically by ovals and the observed variables by rectangles. Single-headed arrows are drawn between the latent variables and their associated observed variables or indicators. These arrows represent coefcients in the model. Double headed arrows represent covariances between the latent concepts. Each observed variable in the model has an associated error term represented by a circle (see Figure 1). Figure 1 shows a simple rst order CFA which has two latent unobserved variables: parenting skills and educational performanceparenting skills and educational performance are not directly observed but measured indirectly by reference to observed variables such as examination performance or reading time. In this example, parenting is dened as an unobserved latent concept and is measured via the observed variables V1 to V4 and similarly educational orientation is measured by variables V5 to V7. The single headed arrows represent coefcients or loadings in the model and are usually reported in a standardised form that is comparable within the modeli.e. the relative weight of each component can be evaluated. The covariance between parenting and educational performance is represented by the double-headed arrow between the two ellipses (when
Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1167

Figure 1.

A 1st order CFA

standardised this represents the correlation). The associated error terms are shown as the circles labelled e1 to e7. Using statistical techniques such as maximum likelihood and making assumptions about the distributions of the variables and error terms in the model, the coefcients and covariances can be estimated and thus scores for the unobserved variables (in this case parenting skills and educational performance) can be calculated. If we make assumptions about the distributions of the components in the model we can attain measures of the concepts by relating observed manifestations of them to unobserved or latent concepts in a SEM. Higher-order models can also be estimated where latent concepts can be combined to provide overall summary measures. Taking this a stage further, causal relationships can be theorised and tested using SEM. Figure 2 shows a hypothetical model which combines two measurement components in a direct relation with one another. Here parenting skills are still measured via the observed variables V1 to V4, but in this case there is a causal link established where this directly contributes to educational performance. In this situation there are now also two residuals (R1 and R2 in the diagram) associated with the latent variables. These causal models (or full structural models as they are known) can be as simple or as complex as theory dictates. Direct and indirect effects can be tested between latent and non-latent variables and various t statistics can be computed which allow the researcher to decide which models better t the data under observation. Full SEMs therefore place the measurement components of the model in various causal relations with other variables. Thus measurement models can be combined in various congurations to test causal hypotheses. Taking the measurement model a stage further with longitudinal data we can model the process of change over the longer term. The latent
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Figure 2.

A full structural model

concepts derived via the CFA framework can be linked together in causal chains. These chains can be used to test various pathways of causality over time. The models can also be enhanced by incorporating controls or covariates. These are often referred to as MIMIC modelsmultiple indicator, multiple cause models. This is a signicant methodological improvement over tradition linear regression models.

THE DATA AND MODELS

The data used for the analysis that follows were drawn from the 1994 wave of the BHPS for all households with children and adolescents aged 1115 years. The BHPS commenced in 1991 with an initial sample of around 10 000 individuals resident in some 5 000 households in Great Britain. These individuals are traced and re-interviewed each year. The BHPS has been maintained annually since its inception with data currently available up to 2008. The BHPS collects information on children in the British sample households and specically all children aged between 11 and 15 complete a separate questionnaire (known as the British Youth PanelBYP) which provides the majority of the data used in the SEMs below. The Youth Panel contains an array of questions collecting information on a array of topics ranging from information on relations with parents, friendship networks, attitudes towards school, delinquent behaviour and many other aspects of childhood. In 1994 when the BYP commenced, there were around 750 children in the panel and approximately 350 of these children have subsequently grown up and were interviewed as adults in the 2008 BHPS. This forms the core data for the analysis that follows. We also
Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1169 estimate models from pooled data from the rst three waves of the BYP which enabled the sample size to be increased. By linking together household level data from the 1994 BHPS to the individual data from the 1994 BYP it is possible to include data on income, nancial strain, parental characteristics and poverty in the models. Furthermore by combining the BYP with the data from later waves of the BHPS (in this case as late as 2008) childhood-level variables can be linked with outcomes relating to educational attainment and labour market participation in adulthood. By 2008, child respondents in the 1994 BYP were aged between 25 and 29 years old. This type of analysis has two potential problems. First, there is a signicant level of attrition. We lose approximately half of the children between 1994 and 2008. However, an examination of the households lost to attrition showed that there were no obvious differences in the characteristics of these households when compared with those that remained in the panel (whether the comparison was made by parental education, occupation, housing tenure, employment status or household structure). Moreover, models estimated using just the 1994 BYP (excluding the 2008 outcome variables) produce very similar results to the restricted attrition based sample and have much higher numbers of cases. This gives us condence that the estimates derived from the structural models of childhood experience are not inuenced very much by attrition. The second problem relates to the pooled data from 1994 to 1996 since cases in this analysis are not independent as children are repeatedly interviewed over two or three waves. There are two possible routes available to deal with this. One is to apply multi-level modelling techniques that incorporate xed or random child-specic effects to account for unobserved differences between children, and the method, adopted here, that incorporates robust standard errors that take into account the non-independence of cases. The 1994 BYP data permit us to measure the following dimensions relating to childhood well-being (these are summarised in Table 1).

4.1

Parental Guidance

The data from the BYP essentially reect the childs view of the world. There are no direct measures of parenting. However, there are four variables that can be incorporated into a measure of parental guidance: whether the child tells their parents where they are going when they go out, whether the parents tell their children where they are going when they go out, whether the child talks to their mother about things that matter to them, and whether they talk to the father about things that matter to them. These variables capture the level and effectiveness of communication between child and parent. All are measured on a 4-point scale and, if the child respondent does not have a mother (or father), the latter two variables are coded as the lowest category.

4.2

Self-esteem

Self-esteem is measured using six observed variables: whether the child feels that they have good qualities, are likeable, how they feel about their appearance, their friends, life in general and their schoolwork. The rst two are measured on a 4-point scale and the rest on a 7-point scale.
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Table 1. List of observed variables in the models

Relating to various latent concepts: Related to parenting: TELLPRT PRTTELL TALKPA TALKMA Related to self-esteem: GOODQUAL LIKEABLE APPEAR FRIENDS LIFE SCHOOLWK Related to delinquency: DRUG TRUANT SMOKER DRUGFRND FIGHT Related to educational orientation: NBOOKS STAY16 SCHOOLWK Others: HOUSEHOLD INCOME FINBAD EDHOH1 to EDHOH3 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LABOUR MARKET STATUS

Tell parents where you are going Parents tell you where they are going Talk to father Talk to mother I have good qualities I am likeable Feel about my appearance Feel about friends Feel about life in general Feel about schoolwork Taking drugs not serious Playing truant from school is not serious Smoker Have friends who take drugs Got into ghts past month Number of books read in past month Want to stay on at school at age 16 Feel about schoolwork Logarithm of equivalised household income Household nances are strained Head of household education (dummies) Highest academic qualication achieved Type of occupation achieved

4.3

Delinquency

Delinquency is calculated using ve variables: how seriously they perceive taking drugs (4-point scale), how seriously they perceive playing truant (4-point scale), how often the respondent smokes (5-point scale), whether the child has friends who take drugs (3-point scale, the type of drug and frequency of use is not recorded) and how often the child has been in a ght in the last month (5-point scale). Although these variables may be linked to peer effects, we assume that they reect a general sense of dislocation from mainstream behaviour and values in the respondent.

4.4

Educational Orientation

Educational orientation is indexed using three variables: The number of books read in the past month; whether the respondent feels that he or she will leave school at 16; and how respondents feel about their school work (7-point scale). (Due to small cell sizes some of the original categories in the above had to be collapsed.) In addition to these dimensions of the childhood environment, several variables are included that reect external inuences. First, income is included in some of the models to estimate poverty effects. Income is scaled to take into account the household size, and the
Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1171 logarithm taken to ensure that the distribution is not strongly skewed which interferes with statistical estimation. To capture nancial strain a dummy variable is included (FINBAD) that is set to one if the household is not at least getting by nancially. To capture parental endowments the educational level of the household head is included as three dummies. EDHOH1 for ordinary/GCSE level, EDHOH2 for college/advanced level and EDHOH3 for further/higher level education (the base category is therefore no or only CSE-level education). The head is used as a proxy for the household as a whole for, while other adults in the household might be more suitable candidates, which particular adult would be best cannot be ascertained. Finally the outcome variables in 2008 include educational attainment and labour market status. Educational outcome is derived as a 4-point scale: 1: 2: 3: 4: No education or CSE level (a low quality minimal educational qualication). GCSE level (a standard educational qualication for 16 year olds). Advanced level (collegenormally 18 years of age). Post-college education (Further post-college and university education).

Labour market status is measured with respect to the most recent job the respondent had in the respective year (20062008). This is measured on a 3-point scale: 1. Semi or unskilled occupations. 2. Skilled manual and white-collar workers, armed forces. 3. Professionals, technical and managerial workers. Following the literature it is hypothesised that parental guidance and delinquency will both affect educational orientation (although in different directions) and that there is a direct effect from parental guidance to delinquency (which means, in effect, that technically delinquency is treated as a moderator variable). It is further proposed that the educational orientation of the child will have consequences for several outcomes. Immediately, it will positively affect self-esteem. Again this is in accordance with numerous behavioural studies as already discussed, but it is important to note the direction of the effect for, when educational orientation is modelled as a consequence of self-esteem, this relationship is not signicant. In the longer term, having a positive educational orientation in adolescence will result in higher educational attainment and improved employment status in adulthood as suggested by much of the literature on the transmission of disadvantage. The advantage of the approach taken here is that there is no reliance on linear regression models where all the variables are simply included as determinants of the individual outcomes. It is possible, using SEM, to determine the real structural relationships between different elements of childhood and how they affect outcomes in both the present and future simultaneously. In addition, we control for household income, endowments and nancial strain in several models to assess the potential inuence of household poverty and parental assets. Numerous alternative models were tested and assessed and the best t statistics indicated the conguration presented here was the one best supported by the data.

RESULTS

Figure 3 shows the results of a typical model relating outcomes in 2008 to circumstances in 1994. More models with coefcients and Z statistics based on the 1994 data are shown in Tables 2 and 3 for pooled data for 19941996. In the tables the standardized coefcients
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Figure 3. Example of a SEM predicting educational attainment in 2008 based on childhood factors from the BYP in 1994. Standardised coefcients shownall signicant at 1% level

indicate the relative size of the effects, and the Z statistics indicate the level of statistical signicance of each coefcient with a value of 1.96 or greater indicating signicance at the 5% level. Fit statistics are also shown. CFI (Comparative Fit Index) and TLI (Tucker-Lewis Index) gures of around 0.9 or greater are considered acceptable, 0.95 or greater are assessed to be excellent. RMSEA (root mean square error of approximation) gures of less than 0.10 are acceptable while 0.05 or below are excellent. Figure 3 demonstrates that this conguration of dimensions produces a good t to the data, a nding that was echoed when
Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

Table 2. Various models comparedstandardised coefcients, (Z Statistics in brackets) BYP 1994 predicting occupation in 2008
0.266 (ref) 0.317 (2.606) 0.833 (3.269) 0.855 (3.157) 0.570 (ref) 0.579 (5.409) 0.455 (3.394) 0.692 (5.542) 0.357 (3.902) 0.438 (3.348) 0.277 (3.572) 0.261 (ref) 0.455 (3.394) 0.465 (5.816) 0.477 (ref) 0.517 (5.899) 0.627 (7.115) 0.596 (6.458) 0.859 (7.114) 0.473 (2.462) 0.762 (2.887) 0.490 (2.323) 0.261 (2.934) 0.411 (2.839) 0.255 (ref) 0.335 (2.728) 0.768 (3.356) 0.890 (3.222) 0.577 (ref) 0.526 (5.663) 0.516 (5.321) 0.700 (6.146) 0.367 (4.041) 0.403 (3.454) 0.318 (3.517) 0.330 (ref) 0.542 (3.710) 0.446 (5.821) 0.525 (ref) 0.525 (6.413) 0.596 (7.403) 0.608 (7.311) 0.882 (8.229) 0.431 (2.534) 0.686 (3.148) 0.354 (2.313) 0.299 (3.023) 0.234 (2.656) 0.266 (ref) 0.320 (2.872) 0.798 (3.666) 0.888 (3.502) 0.568 (ref) 0.600 (5.839) 0.498 (5.229) 0.709 (5.905) 0.361 (4.055) 0.455 (3.893) 0.286 (3.417) 0.259 (ref) 0.466 (3.517) 0.448 (5.812) 0.505 (ref) 0.548 (6.637) 0.607 (7.712) 0.606 (7.369) 0.874 (8.251) 0.423 (2.540) 0.755 (2.954) 0.457 (2.448) 0.312 (3.090) 0.179 (1.745) 0.271 (ref) 0.329 (2.631) 0.777 (3.262) 0.881 (3.193) 0.571 (ref) 0.506 (5.594) 0.507 (5.271) 0.698 (6.350) 0.377 (4.204) 0.393 (3.270) 0.310 (3.647) 0.316 (ref) 0.500 (3.752) 0.434 (5.800) 0.520 (ref) 0.514 (6.224) 0.624 (7.580) 0.588 (6.992) 0.889 (7.849) 0.481 (2.625) 0.660 (3.043) 0.391 (2.330) 0.289 (3.112) 0.280 (2.266)

Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variables

BYP 1994 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting occupation in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting occupation in 2008

0.279 (ref) 0.315 (2.783) 0.800 (3.540) 0.878 (3.437) 0.567 (ref) 0.583 (5.717) 0.477 (5.033) 0.700 (5.944) 0.372 (4.163) 0.441 (3.653) 0.297 (3.507) 0.255 (ref) 0.445 (3.449) 0.430 (5.641) 0.500 (ref) 0.521 (6.308) 0.624 (7.803) 0.590 (7.127) 0.891 (7.942) 0.456 (2.605) 0.713 (2.833) 0.513 (2.482) 0.302 (3.116) 0.253 (1.761) (Continues)

TELLPRT < parental guidance PRTTELL < parental guidance TALKMA < parental guidance TALKPA < parental guidance DRUG < delinquency DRUGFR < delinquency TRUANT < delinquency SMOKER < delinquency FIGHT < delinquency TELLPRT < delinquency SCHOOLWK < ed. orientation NBOOKS < ed. Orientation STAY16 < ed. Orientation SCHOOLWK < self-esteem GOODQUAL < self-esteem LIKEABLE < self-esteem APPEAR < self-esteem FRIENDS < self-esteem LIFE < self-esteem delinquency < parental guidance ed. orientation < delinquency ed. orientation < parental guidance self-esteem < ed. orientation INCOME > ed. orientation FINBAD > ed. orientation EDHOH1 > ed. orientation

0.267 (ref) 0.337 (2.561) 0.806 (3.149) 0.853 (3.066) 0.571 (ref) 0.518 (5.354) 0.473 (4.862) 0.698 (5.820) 0.371 (4.023) 0.384 (3.068) 0.301 (3.683) 0.335 (ref) 0.495 (3.466) 0.468 (5.799) 0.490 (ref) 0.513 (5.757) 0.632 (6.834) 0.594 (6.309) 0.856 (6.985) 0.478 (2.504) 0.727 (3.090) 0.355 (2.130) 0.257 (2.852) 0.453 (3.481)

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1173

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1174

Table 2. (Continued)

Variables

BYP 1994 predicting educational attainment in 2008

0.191 (2.736) 136.3 (74 df) 0.922 0.924 0.050 334 127.7 (74 df) 0.934 0.936 0.046 340 133.0 (76 df) 0.937 0.940 0.046 362 0.145 (2.176) 158.3 (84 df) 0.906 0.907 0.052 329 0.401 (3.752) 0.276 (2.386) 0.379 (3.004) 0.427 (3.922)

BYP 1994 predicting occupation in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting occupation in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 1994 predicting occupation in 2008

0.173 (1.243) 0.286 (2.090) 0.159 (2.363) 151.2 (86 df) 0.923 0.924 0.047 350

0.369 (3.728)

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M. Tomlinson and R. Walker

EDHOH2 > ed. orientation EDHOH3 > ed. orientation Ed. Orientation > outcome: ed. attainment Ed. Orientation > outcome: labour market status x2 CFI TLI RMSEA N

126.9 (70 df) 0.924 0.926 0.049 312

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Table 3. Various pooled models comparedstandardised coefcients, (Z Statistics in brackets) BYP 19941996 predicting occupation in 2008
0.229 (ref) 0.851 (4.592) 0.794 (4.701) 0.694 (8.321) 0.839 (ref) 0.346 (5.667) 0.454 (7.401) 0.279 (5.280) 0.330 (ref) 0.313 (4.455) 0.442 (8.950) 0.570 (ref) 0.607 (11.879) 0.682 (13.413) 0.552 (11.148) 0.800 (13.590) 0.290 (3.105) 0.666 (5.029) 0.666 (3.999) 0.276 (4.612) 0.103 (1.107) 0.249 (ref) 0.814 (5.084) 0.827 (5.169) 0.672 (8.355) 0.848 (ref) 0.362 (6.110) 0.441 (7.529) 0.326 (5.508) 0.363 (ref) 0.379 (4.967) 0.429 (9.420) 0.601 (ref) 0.632 (13.072) 0.671 (14.668) 0.549 (12.196) 0.810 (15.324) 0.299 (3.443) 0.618 (5.193) 0.512 (4.023) 0.284 (4.465) 0.185 (2.871) 0.362 (5.071) 0.228 (ref) 0.832 (4.801) 0.825 (4.895) 0.697 (8.819) 0.842 (ref) 0.346 (6.001) 0.456 (7.935) 0.286 (5.425) 0.331 (ref) 0.321 (4.790) 0.439 (9.064) 0.585 (ref) 0.626 (13.083) 0.672 (14.420) 0.555 (12.125) 0.798 (14.879) 0.302 (3.328) 0.664 (5.268) 0.619 (4.102) 0.304 (5.086) 0.097 (1.312) 0.244 (ref) 0.826 (4.915) 0.813 (5.070) 0.694 (8.627) 0.848 (ref) 0.361 (6.133) 0.443 (7.508) 0.336 (5.958) 0.369 (ref) 0.400 (5.132) 0.426 (9.506) 0.590 (ref) 0.619 (12.387) 0.687 (14.479) 0.544 (11.655) 0.809 (14.342) 0.310 (3.459) 0.564 (5.030) 0.504 (4.009) 0.256 (4.205) 0.321 (3.358) 0.273 (3.144) 0.362 (3.922) 0.433 (5.666)

Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variables

BYP 19941996 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting occupation in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting occupation in 2008

0.227 (ref) 0.827 (4.693) 0.819 (4.813) 0.718 (8.967) 0.841 (ref) 0.345 (5.962) 0.459 (7.885) 0.295 (5.703) 0.330 (ref) 0.326 (4.835) 0.434 (8.879) 0.575 (ref) 0.608 (12.405) 0.695 (13.977) 0.547 (11.560) 0.799 (13.960) 0.307 (3.317) 0.628 (5.011) 0.649 (4.089) 0.279 (4.812) 0.246 (2.229) 0.152 (1.501) 0.226 (2.146) (Continues)

TELLPRT < parental guidance TALKMA < parental guidance TALKPA < parental guidance DRUGFR < delinquency SMOKER < delinquency FIGHT < delinquency TELLPRT < delinquency SCHOOLWK < ed. orientation NBOOKS < ed. Orientation STAY16 < ed. Orientation SCHOOLWK < self-esteem GOODQUAL < self-esteem LIKEABLE < self-esteem APPEAR < self-esteem FRIENDS < self-esteem LIFE < self-esteem delinquency < parental guidance ed. orientation < delinquency ed. orientation < parental guidance self-esteem < ed. orientation INCOME > ed. orientation FINBAD > ed. orientation EDHOH1 > ed. orientation EDHOH2 > ed. orientation EDHOH3 > ed. orientation Ed. Orientation > outcome: ed. attainment

0.240 (ref) 0.849 (4.661) 0.786 (4.789) 0.657 (7.895) 0.842 (ref) 0.370 (5.847) 0.450 (7.182) 0.320 (5.468) 0.367 (ref) 0.367 (4.659) 0.437 (9.460) 0.589 (ref) 0.623 (12.025) 0.684 (13.923) 0.548 (11.263) 0.794 (13.863) 0.299 (3.213) 0.640 (5.156) 0.537 (3.832) 0.258 (4.103) 0.214 (2.500) 0.364 (4.976)

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1175

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Table 3. (Continued)

1176

Variables

BYP 19941996 predicting educational attainment in 2008

0.130 (2.294) 214.7 (55df) 0.897 0.906 0.054 996 233.7 (53df) 0.889 0.900 0.058 1022 225.2 (56df) 0.904 0.914 0.053 1090 224.2 (61df) 0.895 0.899 0.052 976 0.122 (2.212)

BYP 19941996 predicting occupation in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting occupation in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting educational attainment in 2008

BYP 19941996 predicting occupation in 2008

0.140 (2.529) 215.8 (65df) 0.908 0.913 0.047 1040

Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

M. Tomlinson and R. Walker

Ed. Orientation > outcome: labour market status x2 CFI TLI RMSEA N

215.3 (53df) 0.891 0.899 0.057 934

J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1177 the 2008 outcome variables were excluded to increase the sample size and deal with the impact of attrition as previously afrmed. Parental guidance reduces delinquent behaviour in all the models; and parental guidance and delinquency both have an impact on educational orientation. Parenting positively increases educational orientation while delinquent behaviour decreases it. In terms of outcomes it is clear that educational orientation in turn positively affects the three variables of interest. It signicantly contributes to enhanced self-esteem in childhood in all the models and increases the likelihood of higher educational attainment and better labour market status in adulthood. Presenting the same ndings slightly differently, delinquency is seen to have a negative impact on all three measures of achievement through its effect on educational orientation. However, parental guidance can serve to reduce delinquent behaviour while also directly enhancing a childs educational orientation. We also estimated models with controls for age and gender on all the latent concepts (these models are not reported here). Although the t statistics were reduced, the models conrmed that, while delinquency increased with age, neither education nor self-esteem varied between the ages of 11 and 16 and parental guidance was similarly invariant by age. However, being a girl increased educational orientation and parental guidance while being female also reduced self-esteem. The essence is that although there are gender differences, for instance, in terms of self-esteem and educational orientation, they do not fundamentally alter the logic of the model. In other words although gender may reduce a girls self-esteem relative to a boys (all other things being equal) there is still a statistically signicant relationship between the factors conceptualised in the models which does not change. Higher educational orientation will still lead to higher self-esteem despite gender. In addition to this, from an examination of the controlling variables it is also evident that income has an effect on educational orientation. Thus the poorer the household that the child lives in the less likely it will be that the child will have a high educational orientation (with the consequence that they will eventually perform less well in terms of nal educational attainment and labour market status). Financial strain has a similar impact, but only in the models predicting educational achievement. Thus children in those households that are not coping well with their nances are also statistically less likely to have high educational orientation and to succeed in leaving education with high qualications Therefore even in households that may technically not be poor, but are nevertheless in nancial difculty, children have a tendency to perform less well at school. Finally, as would be expected, parents education is found to be associated with their childs educational outlook (Tables 2 and 3). Children in households headed by more educated adults will have a greater chance of having a higher educational orientation. However, the results of models with these controlling variables need to be treated with a degree of caution. When income, education of the head of household and nancial strain are all included in the model together, only education tends to remain signicant. This is no doubt because there are very high correlations between these three variables. Thus it is difcult to say with certainty, taking the income models in isolation, whether poverty is the direct cause of the fall in educational orientation or whether it is due to other factors such as status, class and education. Nevertheless, the models do demonstrate that parental guidance and low levels of delinquency can potentially offset some of the negative effects of low income and nancial hardship, although the routes by which this occurs remain to be investigated. In other words (and in line with much of the literature) if a child in a poor household has dependable parents and avoids delinquency then they will have a better chance of succeeding in the
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present (in terms of self-esteem) and in the future (in terms of crucial adult outcomes). This is not to say that the benets of good parenting outweigh the effects of poverty and household nancial pressures on children; indeed, comparing the size of the coefcients shown in Figure 3 suggests that parental engagement is not in itself sufcient to prevent delinquency or to neutralise its negative impact on a childs educational orientation; and also that extra income may have a more powerful positive effect on this aspect of child well-being than good parenting alone. However, what is without doubt is that parenting, access to resources via income and other parental endowments and the absence of delinquent behaviour are all part of the explanation of what constitutes a good childhood.

CONCLUSIONS

It has been demonstrated that a SEM of adolescent circumstances and the transmission of disadvantage can be used to reveal the potential impact of various individual and contextual attributes on adult outcomes. If we take educational orientation and performance to be at the crux of early determinants of academic and labour market performance then it has been shown that parental guidance, parental endowments, household nances and the avoidance of delinquency all play a signicant part in the process. However, it is no simple matter to determine which of these factors is more or less important for the child not least because they tend to work in concert. One conclusion from these observations is that any policy programme to address these issues would be more successful if it employed a comprehensive package that includes poverty alleviation, alongside educational assistance, improving parental relations in terms of communication, and nancial support in order to assuage the impact of disadvantage on future life chances in children. Not only is it likely to be necessary to tackle multiple impediments but the effectiveness of one intervention may be lessened if another is not in place. The results suggest that dealing with low income alone will only be a partial solution at best to problems of social mobility and the underachievement of children. How far these results prove pertinent in other contexts particularly developing nations has yet to be determined. However, there is a growing evidence of the cumulative effects of disadvantage across the world and evidence is emerging that the inuences and wellbeing of children in the here and now are powerful predictors of their future life chances irrespective of where they live (Harper and Marcus, 2003; Walker et al., 2007; Engle and Black, 2008; Behman et al., 2010). The increasing availability of panel data, such as that in Mexico and Guatemala, is beginning to facilitate research into the longer-term scarring effects of poverty and disadvantage on children that in all probability reduce opportunities and restrict constructive outcomes (Akee et al., 2010; Behman et al., 2010). Moreover, the unique contribution of the techniques employed in this research is that they allow the simultaneous investigation of the relative strengths of different childhood inuences on multiple future outcomes and permit the causal pathways to be validated. Not only does this extend the power of explanatory models, the results may also help policymakers to ascertain factors to which they should focus more resources and in what specic contexts resources are constrained. For example, from the coefcients in our models it appears that income is more important than parental guidance in shaping a childs educational orientation but that delinquency has the largest overall impact. This may not be the case in other cultures. Perhaps inevitably, the results presented raise more questions than can be answered with the current level of analysis, which is primarily cross-sectional. A deeper
Copyright # 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 22, 11621182 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/jid

Poverty, adolescent well-being and outcomes 1179 investigation of the longitudinal aspects of the BYP should enable us to disentangle to a greater extent the true causes and determinants of childhood well-being and ultimately critical outcomes later in life. Future research is planned to exploit the longitudinal nature of the BYP and explore other controlling factors by including the personality of the child, other parental characteristics and the childs environmental situation in terms of neighbourhood and housing. This will be undertaken in tandem with examining trajectories of well-being in adolescence and their impact on later outcomes using a latent growth modelling framework which takes the SEM method further by incorporating well-being and poverty dynamics. Crucially a more multi-level approach to the data which can take unobserved personal and household characteristics into account will take us another step further in our understanding of the mechanisms which restrict children from realising their ultimate potential.

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