Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presentation aim
To highlight the risks present in resource and reserve estimation and give an insight into some of the tools available in Minesight that can be used to determine grade risk.
Presentation Summary
Snowden overview Risk factors in mining Simulation for grade risk Confidence limits and probability above cutoff Case Study: Grade risk python scripting. Handy hints Questions
Snowden overview
Downer EDI Snowden (160+ people worldwide) Resource Evaluation Group Mining Engineering Group Geotechnical Engineering Group Corporate Services Group (Audits, Valuations) Business Improvement Group (Six Sigma) Risk Management Group Mentoring and Training Technologies (Supervisor, Reconcilor)
Risk?
If you understand the risks present then you can mitigate the impact of these risks with good management and decisions.
PROCESS CAPCOSTS
COMMODITY PRICES
Cultural Features
Topography
Geotechnics
Lithology
Mineral Types
**Uncertainty associated with geological interpretation and grade estimation is usually the largest source of potential error in the resource and reserve estimate**
Conditional Simulation gives the user numerous equi probable results for any panel. (A minimum of 100 realisations is recommended) Simulation is typically completed external to Minesight due to the current limitation of items in the block model
Cumulative Frequency
The greater the spread of simulated grades for a panel The greater the risk Low confidence
Spread of grades
large variance wide spread large range of potential values Potentially high risk region.
Cumulative Frequency
High confidence
0
low variance narrow spread small range of potential values Potentially low grade risk region
Spread of grades
Absolute error
SiO2 Grade (%) 1.75 2.45 5th percentile 2.71 3.53 4.13 5.10 5.60 5.90 95th percentile 7.70 4.29
Absolute error for a given 10m x 10m panel is: 4.29% SiO2 1.73% S at 90% c.l.
Relative error
Absolute Error Mean x 100
1.73 4.29
40%
Relative error for the same 10m x 10m block is: 4.29% SiO2 40.0% at 90% c.l.
Blue regions show low grade variation and are potentially low risk areas Yellow regions show high grade variation and are potentially high risk areas
Probability map of SiO2 grade being above 6.0% High probability / High risk areas are red
10 0m
20 0m
30 0m
40 0m x 50 0m
Co m po s
10 m
20 m
30 m
40 m
50 m
10 0m
20 0m
30 0m
40 0m
50 0m
ite s
10 m
20 m
30 m
40 m
50 m
11.00
10.00
9.00
Grade
8.00
5.00
4.00 2,500,000
3,500,000
4,500,000
5,500,000 Tonnage
6,500,000
7,500,000
8,500,000
Schedule risk
Grade Variation by Scheduled Year
Grade
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Sim maximum Sim minimum Sim median Kriged estimate
4 Year
10
Python scripts are easily developed by Mintec personnel and save significant time and effort Python scripts are commonly stored under c:\medexe\site\ scripts
Load mean ranked simulations to the block model. Due to the limitation of the number of items in the block model it is not possible to load all the simulations to a single block model. Only load the minimum, 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th and maximum ranked simulation values to the block model In addition it is good practice to also load the mean, variance, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of the simulations to the block model
Load probability values above specific cutoffs into the Minesight block model. The example above shows probability values for SiO2 exceeding 2.0%, 4.0%, 6.0%, 8.0%, 10.0%, 12.0% and 14.0% being loaded to block model items SIP02, SIP04, SIP06, SIP08, SIP10, SIP12 and SIP14 respectively
Using block model User Calcs the grade range between the 50% confidence limit (25th to 75th ranked simulation), 80% confidence limit (10th to 90th ranked simulation), 90% confidence limit (5th to 95th ranked simulation) and all simulations were calculated for each panel and stored in the block model items S2575, S1090, S0595 and S1100 respectively
For each panel the relative error for each of the confidence limits is calculated and stored to the block model. The relative error is calculated by dividing the simulation grade range for each confidence limit by the simulation mean and multiplying by 100
Probability the Block Grade is below the Resource Cutoff Grade (90% c.l.)
0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 10
21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 20
22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 0 30
23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 0 40
24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 0 50
25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 0 60
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 0 70
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 0 80
28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 0 90
29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 0 100
30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 0 110
31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 0 120
32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 0 130
33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 0 140
34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 0 150
35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 0 160
36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 0 170
37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 0 180
38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 0 190
39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 0 200
% Grade Variance from Mean (Risk 95 = Grade Variance of PCU05 to PCU95). Other Risk Options - Risk 90, Risk 75.
Risk maps
Risk maps are a powerful design tool for engineers and geologists
Handy hints
Use MSDA custom reports to report risk for multiple domains at multiple confidence limits Use MSDA custom reports to complete statistical comparisons of simulation data against the original composite data Import simulation and composite variograms into Minesight and compare visually using Import Variograms (ASCII) file Block model statistical summaries by northing and easting can be completed easily in MSDA via custom reports. Setup a filter tab based on easting or northing and input bins based on appropriate spacing. Use MSDART to manage large ASCII and CSV files.
procedure summary
1. 2. 3. Define area(s) of interest.
a. Area of interest should be larger than range of variogram
4.
5.
Conditional Simulation
a. b. Run sequential Gaussian simulation (Minimum of 100 simulations per node recommended) Select a node spacing which divides into panel / standard mining unit (SMU) evenly. (A minimum of 25 nodes per panel is recommended)
6.
Simulation Validation
a. b. c. d. Visual Checks Statistical checks using MSDA. QQ-plots Simulation variogram checks against composite variogram model
10. Develop risk maps 11. Calculate risk per mining period, stope or region and evaluate mine plan with respect to risk.
Questions