GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L20702, doi:10.
1029/2008GL035287, 2008
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Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the east
Asian winter monsoon
Lin Wang,1 Wen Chen,1 and Ronghui Huang1
Received 9 July 2008; revised 20 September 2008; accepted 23 September 2008; published 21 October 2008.
[1] The interdecadal modulation of the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) upon the impact of the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) on the east Asian winter monsoon
(EAWM) is investigated. When the PDO is in its high phase,
there is no robust relationship between ENSO and EAWM on
the interannual timescale. When the PDO is in its low phase,
ENSO exerts strong impact on the EAWM, with robust and
significant low-level temperature changes occurring over
east Asia. The contrast in ENSO’s influence between the two
phases of the PDO is quite remarkable, which urges that the
phase of the PDO should be taken into account in the ENSO-
based prediction of wintertime climate over east Asia. This
modulation may be accounted for by the change in the low-
latitude Pacific-east Asian teleconnection and in the response
of midlatitude geopotential height to ENSO over Northwest
Pacific. Citation: Wang, L., W. Chen, and R. Huang (2008),
Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the east
Asian winter monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20702,
doi:10.1029/2008GL035287.
1. Introduction
[2] It is well-known that the El Niño-Southern Oscilla-
tion (ENSO) phenomenon exhibits the greatest influence on
the interannual variability of the global climate, and it can
be used as a potential predictor in practical operation
[Webster et al., 1998]. The mature phase of El Niño events
often occurs in boreal winter and is usually accompanied by
a weaker than normal east Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)
[Zhang et al., 1996; Wang et al., 2000]. Consequently, the
climate over east Asia is warmer and wetter during El Niño
winters [Li, 1990; Chen et al., 2000]. In addition, the
influence of ENSO on the east Asian climate can persist
to the following summer [Wang et al., 2000], with signif-
icantly more precipitation over the Yangtze River valley
during the decaying stage of El Niño events [Huang and
Wu, 1989; Shen and Lau, 1995]. During La Niña years, the
aforementioned anomalies are generally reversed.
[3] On the other hand, the interannual relationship
between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary,
and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997]. For example, the typical
influences of ENSO on the North American climate are
strong and consistent only during the high phase of the
PDO [Gershunov and Barnett, 1998]. The ENSO-Australia
precipitation relationship is robust only during the low
phase of the PDO [Power et al., 1999]. In the east Asia
1
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
0094-8276/08/2008GL035287$05.00
L20702
area, the east Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and
EAWM are the most dominating climate phenomena.
The ENSO-EASM relationship during 1978 – 93 was found
to be significantly different from that during 1962– 77 [Wu
and Wang, 2002], which actually corresponds to a phase
change of the PDO. One question is whether the ENSO-
EAWM relationship also varies with the phase of the PDO.
This issue will be investigated in this paper.
2. Data and Methods
[4] The monthly mean datasets used in this study are
listed in Table 1. We focus on the winter means that are
constructed by averaging the monthly means of December,
January and February (DJF). A 9-year running average is
used to obtain the interdecadal variability of the PDO. This
yields four periods with high PDO values: 1900 –1911,
1921 – 1943, 1978 – 1990, 1993 – 2005, and three periods
with low PDO values: 1912 – 1920, 1944 – 1977, 1991 –
1992. Here the 1900 refers to the 1900/01 winter. The
Niño3.4 index calculated from the HadISST1 dataset is used
to represent the variability of ENSO. ENSO extreme winters
are defined when detrended DJF Niño3.4 index is more than
0.8 standard deviations away from the long-term mean
[Gershunov and Barnett, 1998]. The detrended Niño3.4
index is employed to avoid the possible influence of the
PDO’s phase shift [Gershunov and Barnett, 1998]. Follow-
ing this definition, 8 El Niño winters and 7 La Niña winters
are selected for the period 1957 –2001. Further, these winters
are sorted according to the phase of the PDO (Table 2). Since
the influence of El Niño on the EAWM is generally opposite
to that of La Niña [Wang et al., 2000], this study mainly
discusses the composite difference between El Niño and
La Niña winters.
3. Results
[5] The EAWM is generally characterized by cold and
dry conditions [Chen et al., 2005]. Hence, we use the
temperature field to represent the winter monsoon. Without
distinguishing the phase of the PDO, the composite differ-
ence between 8 El Niño winters and 7 La Niña winters
exhibits a clear warming over east Asia (figure not shown),
indicating a weakened EAWM, which is consistent with
previous studies [e.g., Chen et al., 2005, Figure 12b]. When
the ENSO winters are divided into categories according to
the phase of the PDO (Table 2), significant difference
emerges. In the high phase of the PDO, low-level winter
temperature anomalies over east Asia are weak (Figure 1a).
In contrast, during the low phase of the PDO, the El Niño-
related warming patterns are robust and significant over east
Asia, especially over the central China and the Northwest
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L20702 WANG ET AL.: MODULATION OF PDO ON ENSO IMPACT
Table 1. Datasets Used in This Study
Resolution
Surface air temperature 160 stations
ERA40 reanalysis 2.5°  2.5°
CRUTEM3 5°  5°
HadISST1 1°  1°
PDO index – 1900 – 2005
Pacific (Figure 1b). These features can also be seen in the
observed surface air temperature (SAT) from 160 China
stations (Figures 1c and 1d). It implies that the ENSO-
EAWM relationship may depend on the phase of the PDO.
[6] We note that the number of cases selected for compos-
ite is somewhat small for each PDO phases (Table 2). Hence,
the dataset of gridded historical land surface temperature
anomalies from longer record-CRUTEM3 is employed to
confirm the results in Figure 1. CRUTEM3 covers a period
from January 1850 to present. However, there are very few
observation stations, from which CRUTEM3 is generated,
over east Asia before 1900, so we only consider the winters
from 1900 to 2005. The data period is first divided according
to the phase of the PDO and then grouped together for the
same PDO phase. This yields 61 (45) winters with high (low)
phase of the PDO (see section 2).
[7] Figure 2 presents the regressed SAT on the Niño3.4
index for different phases of the PDO by using CRUTEM3.
Clearly, the SAT over east Asia is closely related to the
variability of Niño3.4 index during the low phase of
the PDO (Figure 2b), but it is not during the high phase
of the PDO (Figure 2a). This is consistent with that in
Figure 1, and suggests that the composite results from small
samples by the ERA40 reanalysis and 160 China stations
are robust. Therefore, the influence of ENSO on the EAWM
is significant only during the low phase of the PDO.
[8] An important question is why the ENSO-EAWM
relationship has changed with the phase of the PDO.
Previous studies have shown that ENSO exerts influence
on the EAWM through a Pacific-east Asian teleconnection
(PEAT) at low latitudes [Wang et al., 2000]. The PEAT is
characterized by an anomalous low-level anticyclone over
the western North Pacific to the east of Philippine [Wang et
al., 2000] and associated southerly wind anomalies along
the coasts of east Asia [Zhang et al., 1996]. However, the
PEAT-related features display notable differences between
the high and the low phases of the PDO (Figure 3). In the
high phase of the PDO (Figure 3a), the anomalous anticy-
clone is located around the south of Philippine. The asso-
ciated southerly wind over east Asia is weak and
insignificant, and mainly confined to the south of 30°N.
This implies that the PEAT is not well established, and
ENSO can hardly exert impact on the EAWM. In contrast,
the location of PEAT anticyclone shifts northeastward to the
east of Philippine in the low phase of the PDO, with strong
and significant southerly wind penetrating almost to 50°N
along the east Asian coasts (Figure 3b). Therefore, the
PEAT is well established, and ENSO exerts strong impact
on the EAWM.
[9] In addition to the PEAT at low latitudes, the midlat-
itude circulation’s response to ENSO also shows significant
differences. In the low phase of the PDO, the ENSO-related
500-hPa geopotential height is characterized by a clear
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Period of Record Source
1957 – 2001 China Meteorological Administration
1957 – 2001 Uppala et al. [2005]
1900 – 2005 Brohan et al. [2006]
1900 – 2005 Rayner et al. [2003]
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo
Western Pacific pattern [Wallace and Gutzler, 1981] over
east Asia (not shown) [see Wang et al., 2007, Figure 12a].
The composite sea level pressure (SLP) field implies a
weakened Siberian High and an intensified North Pacific
Oscillation (NPO) [Wallace and Gutzler, 1981] (Figure 4b).
This distribution of SLP anomalies decreases the pressure
gradient between the cold Eurasian continent and the warm
North Pacific, and therefore weakens the EAWM. In the
high phase of the PDO, the responses of midlatitude geo-
potential height [see Wang et al., 2007, Figure 12b] and SLP
(Figure 4a) to ENSO are quite weak and insignificant over
Northwest Pacific, in consistent with the weak ENSO-
EAWM relationship.
4. Summary and Discussions
[10] The present study identifies a clear interdecadal
modulation of the PDO upon the impact of ENSO on the
EAWM. In the high phase of the PDO, the interannual
relationship between ENSO and EAWM is weak and
insignificant. In the low phase of the PDO, in contrast,
ENSO exerts strong impact on the EAWM, with robust and
significant low-level temperature change occurring over
east Asia. This result indicates that the generally accepted
ENSO-EAWM relationship is not stationary, and it depends
on the phase of the PDO. Therefore, the phase of the PDO
should be taken into account when we use ENSO as a
predictor for the EAWM. Further analyses reveal that such
a modulation effect can be explained by the differences in
low-latitude PEAT and in the midlatitude geopotential
height response to ENSO over Northwest Pacific. These
two atmospheric teleconnections are strong (weak) and
significant (insignificant) during the low (high) phase
of the PDO, and favor a close (weak) ENSO-EAWM
relationship.
[11] The reason for the changes in PEAT and ENSO-
related midlatitude atmospheric response is complex, and it
may be attributed to the modulation of the PDO on the
background of climatic conditions [Power et al., 1999]. In
the high phase of the PDO, the Aleutian low is very strong.
This may lead to the occurrence of the most dominant
atmospheric variability over the North Pacific rather than in
other areas (e.g., Figure 3a), and weaken the ENSO-EAWM
relationship. In the low phase of the PDO, the situation
tends to be reversed (e.g., Figure 3b). Moreover, the
Table 2. El Niño and La Niña Winters During 1957 – 2001 and
Their Distribution With PDO Phase
PDO High PDO Low
El Niño 1982, 1986, 1994, 1997 1957, 1965, 1972, 1991
La Niña 1984, 1988, 1998, 1999 1970, 1973, 1975
L20702 WANG ET AL.: MODULATION OF PDO ON ENSO IMPACT L20702

Figure 1. Composite difference of winter mean (DJF) 850-hPa air temperature between El Niño and La Niña winters in
(a) high and (b) low phase of the PDO based on the ERA40 reanalysis for the period 1957– 2001. (c and d) Same as Figures
1a and 1b but for the observed SAT from 160 China stations. Contour intervals are 0.5°C, zero contour lines are suppressed.
Light, medium and dark shading indicate 90%, 95% and 99% confidence level, respectively. See Table 2 for the El Niño
and La Niña winters for the composite.

Figure 2. Regression (contour)/correlation (shading) maps for the observed winter mean (DJF) SAT from CRUTEM3 on
the normalized Niño3.4 index in (a) high and (b) low phase of the PDO. Contour intervals are 0.5°C, zero contour lines are
suppressed. Light, medium and dark shading indicate 90%, 95% and 99% confidence level, respectively. See section 2 for
the high and low phases of the PDO.

Figure 3. Composite difference of winter mean (DJF) 850-hPa wind field between El Niño and La Niña winters in (a) high
and (b) low phase of the PDO based on the ERA40 reanalysis for the period 1957– 2001. Light, medium and dark shading
indicate 90%, 95% and 99% confidence level of meridional wind, respectively. See Table 2 for the El Niño and La Niña
winters for the composite.

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L20702 WANG ET AL.: MODULATION OF PDO ON ENSO IMPACT
Figure 4. The same as in Figure 3 but for the SLP field. Contour intervals are 1hPa, zero contour lines are suppressed.
modulation of the PDO on the background condition may
not be the only possible explanation. For example, a recent
study of Wang et al. [2008] found that the thermal condition
of the North Pacific may modulate the pathway of the
EAWM. The positive sea surface temperature anomalies
may strengthen the EAWM flow penetrating to the tropics,
and lead to a tighter ENSO-EAWM relationship. However,
the exact mechanism is still not clear and it should be
investigated by using a coupled atmospheric and oceanic
general circulation model.
[12] Acknowledgments. This work is supported by the National
Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 40775035 and 40730952).
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W. Chen, R. Huang, and L. Wang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 2718, Beijing 100190, China.
(cw@post.iap.ac.cn)