Thursday January 16, 2014

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DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY
01/16/14
Tightness in US cash market but global supply on the rise

OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT):
SOY BEANS +2.6, BEAN OIL -0.1, SOYMEAL +1.2

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: March soybeans were trading 2 1/2 cents
higher on the session near 7:00 cst. China futures closed 0.5% higher. Palm oil
futures in Malaysia closed slightly higher. Global equities took on a slightly lower
track during the early morning hours, as they look to this morning flow of US
economic data for added confirmation of growth prospects. The Japanese Nikkei finished fractionally lower,
weighed down by profit-taking despite stronger than expected data on Japanese Machinery orders. Some in the
trade were skeptical of pressing the market higher without confirmation of improving economic conditions. China's
Shanghai Composite finished slightly higher, perhaps on data showing a rebound in Foreign direct investment into
the country. The major European shares took on a slightly lower tone after an early morning test of their recent
high, with pressure coming from disappointing retail sector earnings. US equity markets were flat to fractionally
lower ahead of the Wall Street opening, with some in the trade looking for this morning's flow of economic data on
CPI and housing to confirm an improving growth theme. Also in focus for US equity markets is an active flow of
earnings.

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Conflicting fundamentals seems to be all around the soybean market
at the moment but for now the nearby demand influences clearly have given the upper hand to the bull camp.
There has been active bull spreading all week with significant gains in the March/Nov and July/Nov soybean
spreads which lately have been the spec traders delight given the bearish case tied to the November contract
(short leg of the spread). The March/Nov traded over 200 and July/Nov is up almost 18 cents from the USDA
report close. While some see this as overdone, the fact is that demand has not slowed down and in some cases
has exceeded expectations while at the same time there have been no Chinese cancellations. Cargo
cancellations began last year just before the Chinese Lunar Year holiday. Talk that their crush margins remain
healthy which could result in the demand trend extending out further than a year ago is supportive. In addition,
China was a buyer of 106,000 tonnes of new crop US soybeans. Crush numbers are also bullish from a demand
perspective with NOPA crush coming in at a record high 165.4 million bushels, which was well above trade
expectations and near the high end of the 160-166 million bushel range. Oil stocks at 1.681 billion pounds as
compared with expectations near 1.555 billion pounds. The trade will see another dose of demand-side data with
export sales this morning and traders are looking for soybean sales near 900,000 tonnes, up from just 156,200
tonnes last week. Meal sales are expected near 100,000 tonnes. The CIF soybean market was weaker late
yesterday (just coming off of 4-month highs) and there's talk of steady producer sales above 13 for those that
have supplies left. Tuesday morning weather maps showed increasing rain in the weather forecast for next week
in southern Argentina. Brazil will see showers next week and rainfall is set to hit parched areas of Argentina
between the 18th and the 22nd. Temperatures remain high until next week. The Argentina peso continues to
decline against the US Dollar which is keeping a lid on any farmer movement in the country resulting in a more
favorable demand trend in the US.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
Resistance for March soybeans is 1322 1/2 followed by the December high of 1339 1/4. A close through either
resistance points turns the chart pattern more bullish. Given the new crop outlook, a minor bounce in November
soybeans still looks like a good selling opportunity. Resistance is at 1134 1/2 and 1143 3/4 although it appears to
be stalling near 1125. For now, the technical and fundamental structure of the market remains bullish but if export
sales fail to impress, profit taking is always a risk. The March contract is now up as much as 60 3/4 cents off the
January low.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
* Sell November soybeans at 1134 with an objective of 1062. Risk to 1145.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Long 2 February soybean $12.20 puts from 6 3/4 cents each. Exit one put at 12 cents, and hold the second for a
test of $11.92 3/4 basis the March futures.


SOYBEAN COMPLEX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

SOYBEANS (MAR) 01/16/2014: Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price
action. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The close over the
pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside target is at 1332 3/4. The next area of resistance
is around 1326 3/4 and 1332 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 1309 1/4 and below there at 1297 1/2.

SOYBEAN OIL (MAR) 01/16/2014: Rising from oversold levels, daily momentum studies would support higher
prices, especially on a close above resistance. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under
the 9-bar moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The
next upside target is 38.35. The next area of resistance is around 38.20 and 38.35, while 1st support hits today at
37.78 and below there at 37.50.

SOYMEAL (MAR) 01/16/2014: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support
reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside
objective is 442.0. The next area of resistance is around 438.8 and 442.0, while 1st support hits today at 430.2
and below there at 424.9.


DAILY CORN COMMENTARY
01/16/14
Bearish sentiment prevalent with focus on "how much" loss in Argentina

OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT):
CORN +0.6

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: March corn was trading 3/4 of a cent higher
on the session near 7:00 cst. Outside market forces look mixed to quiet.

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Reports of more DDG rejections from China and the outlook for
some relief for dry areas of Argentina next week gave the edge to the bear camp yesterday but short term
weather issues in Argentina remain an influence nonetheless. Temperatures continue to hold at elevated levels in
Argentina with no rainfall until the 19th through the 22nd. Temperatures will back off as rainfall pushes through.
Total impact on the crop is unknown but some private forecasts have dipped down to 20 million tonnes or less
while the USDA sits at 25 million tonnes. Market consensus seems to be in the 23-24 million tonnes range baring
an extension of the warm/dry pattern. Cash market weakness continued as well, as producer selling has been
active since last Friday. World corn ending stocks sit at a 13 year high so a minor production downgrade in
Argentina, while important, hardly destroys the world supply balance. This could force more export demand back
over to the US in the spring however. The Argentina peso continues to decline against the dollar which will keep
sales of corn slow by farmers as well.

Ethanol production for the week ending January 10th averaged 868,000 barrels per day. This was down 5.5% vs.
last week and up 10.7% vs. last year. Sources indicate the sharp revision in production was due to the below
normal temperatures and snow last week. Most of the ethanol transported in the country is done through rail, not
pipeline. Would expect to see a rebound in this figure in next week's report given the highly profitable margins.
Total Ethanol production for the week was 6.076 million barrels. Corn used in last week's ethanol production is
estimated at 91.1 million bushels. Corn use needs to average 95.4 million bushels per week to meet this crop
year's USDA estimate. Stocks were down 0.37% vs. last week and down 21.04% vs. last year. For export sales
this morning, traders are looking for corn sales near 425,000 tonnes, up from just 155,200 tonnes last week.
South Korea tendered for corn and feed wheat yesterday and bought 70,000 tonnes of US corn and 65,000 of
optional origin feedwheat this morning. Interior corn bids had a firmer bid late yesterday after weakness for much
of this week.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
March corn is already down 10 cents from Monday's highs as increased producer selling has helped to pressure.
The January high of 435 1/2 and then 440 3/4 are next resistance for now but if momentum can't swing higher, a
test of 420 3/4 or even 417 1/2 may be ahead. The hourly intraday chart has turned sharply lower from the USDA
report highs which favor the bears. With more favorable conditions reaching Argentina by early next week, it
appears the upper hand still lies with the bear camp. December corn resistance is significant at 456 1/2 and then
461 3/4.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Long July/short March corn from +15 1/4 July with an objective of +22 July. Risk to 12 1/4 July.


CORN TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

CORN (MAR) 01/16/2014: The market back below the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend
could be turning down. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move
higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the
intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests
a moderately negative setup for today. The next upside objective is 433. The next area of resistance is around
428 3/4 and 433, while 1st support hits today at 422 3/4 and below there at 421 1/4.

DAILY WHEAT COMMENTARY
01/16/14
Very weak technical action as global supply issues pressure: India?

OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT):
WHEAT +0.2

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: March wheat was trading up 3/4 of a cent
near 7:15 cst. Outside market forces look slightly negative but quiet overnight.

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: An outlook that suggests burdensome global supplies continues to
be the driving influence in the market with an obvious bearish technical picture supporting. There doesn't seem to
be any fear that the below normal temperatures set to hit the eastern third of the US and parts of the Black Sea by
this weekend/early week will hurt crops but this should certainly be on the radar. Snowfall is expected to reach
parts of the Ohio River Valley which will protect against winterkill. Some longer term forecast suggest that cold
weather will move back into the Midwest beginning January 25th, with talk that temperatures in Indiana and
Illinois could be down below zero. The western plains forecast looks mild with no major threat. There is still no
snow cover in Europe, Russia, or Ukraine. Total precipitation for the entire region appears to be below normal.

Overlooking the nearby weather fear, the India Farm Minister expects this year's production to be up near 100
million tonnes which would be a record high and Ukraine boosted their grain harvest forecast to 62.99 million
tonnes which is a record high. The wheat harvest included 22.3 million tonnes of wheat. If correct, the India
supply situation looks to remain as a key bearish force. January 1st stocks in India were 28 million tonnes
compared with a target to own at least 8.2 million tonnes. Annual usage is thought to be near 76-77 million tonnes
so a 100 million tonne production total means that a lack of storage could force significant quantities on the world
market. Jordon bought 50,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat Wednesday, South Korea is in for feed wheat
(maybe India sells?), and Egypt tendered after the close. The US sold last week's tender for the first time this
marketing year and was a clear discount (FOB) against all major exporters. Would expect to see Chicago and KC
offers. Tunisia is also tendering to buy 117,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 109,000 tonnes of durum. There was
Chicago wheat receipts canceled in Ohio delivery space this week with some traders expecting the supplies to be
shipped for export. There have been rumors of private business being done with Egypt for 2 weeks now and
perhaps Brazil. For export sales this morning, traders are looking for nearly 475,000 tonnes, up from 294,800
tonnes last week. A France farm office cut their forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU to 11.5
million tonnes, down from 11.8 million in December due to stiffer competition from other major exporters.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
Wednesday's close below Tuesday's low for March Chicago wheat is viewed in favor of the bear camp, and a
weak technical signal for the short-term trend was given on a close below its two-week moving average. The
move through 570 for March wheat was a major blow to the bull camp considering many were hoping for a
weather recovery following the Tuesday rally. There may be some modest support due to the Egypt tender.
Failure to recover above 572 1/2 could lead to an extension down to 554 and 547 3/4.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Long March wheat 590 call from 8 with an objective of 15. Risk to 5 cents.


WHEAT TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

WHEAT (MAR) 01/16/2014: A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The market's close below the 9-day
moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. There could be some early pressure today
given the market's negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside objective is
now at 557 1/4. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of
resistance is around 574 1/4 and 583 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 561 1/4 and below there at 557 1/4.

KC WHEAT (MAR) 01/16/2014: A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics.
Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 9-day moving average is
a negative short-term indicator for trend. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close
below the 1st support number. The next downside target is now at 609 1/2. The next area of resistance is around
627 1/2 and 637 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 613 1/2 and below there at 609 1/2.

MINN WHEAT (MAR) 01/16/2014: The sell-off took the market to a new contract low. Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below
the 9-day moving average. A negative signal was given by the outside day down. The swing indicator gave a
moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside target is 606 1/4.
The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area of resistance is around 618
3/4 and 625 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 609 1/4 and below there at 606 1/4.

RICE (MAR) 01/16/2014: The cross over and close above the 60-day moving average is an indication the longer-
term trend has turned positive. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The
market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The outside day up and close
above the previous day's high is a positive signal. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 15.791. The next area of resistance is around 15.737 and 15.791,
while 1st support hits today at 15.543 and below there at 15.402.

DAILY TECHNICAL STATISTICS
CLOSE
9 DAY
RSI
14 DAY
RSI
14 DAY
SLOW
STOCH D
14 DAY
SLOW
STOCH K
4 DAY
M AVG
9 DAY
M AVG
18 DAY
M AVG
45 DAY
M AVG
60 DAY
M AVG
GRAIN COMPLEX
CNAH4 425 3/4 48.55 48.04 56.08 68.08 431.13 425.64 426.83 429.49 432.91
CNAK4 433 1/2 48.09 47.67 54.93 66.90 439.06 433.67 434.97 437.76 441.20
SSAH4 1318 65.03 58.73 32.16 55.41 1299.44 1284.97 1297.08 1301.04 1290.67
SSAX4 1118 39.82 38.12 12.38 21.02 1112.81 1114.31 1133.78 1150.16 1152.88
SMAH4 434.5 67.62 62.11 48.07 70.32 425.03 418.18 421.66 418.34 411.70
BOAH4 37.99 35.95 34.64 9.70 12.15 37.96 38.01 38.66 39.97 40.43
WHAH4 567 3/4 25.38 25.84 9.74 8.86 572.38 586.28 596.35 628.46 643.02
WHAN4 581 1/4 27.42 27.78 10.62 11.07 585.63 597.28 607.63 635.08 647.96
RCAH4 15.640 56.03 53.29 73.72 80.99 15.60 15.56 15.46 15.67 15.62
KWAH4 620 1/2 32.45 31.43 17.82 16.33 624.56 634.00 639.29 672.04 689.90
MWAH4 614 23.23 22.40 7.35 5.57 618.31 624.58 631.46 667.33 686.28
OTAH4 393 72.86 71.20 91.12 93.61 390.69 376.94 364.63 344.51 336.93
Calculations based on previous session. Data collected 01/15/2014
Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use.

DAILY SWING STATISTICS
Contract Support 2 Support 1 Pivot Resist 1 Resist 2
GRAIN COMPLEX
CNAH4 Corn 421 422 3/4 427 428 3/4 433
CNAK4 Corn 429 430 1/2 435 436 1/2 441
SSAH4 Soybeans 1297 1/4 1309 1315 1327 1332 3/4
SSAX4 Soybeans 1108 1/4 1113 1/2 1117 1/4 1122 1/2 1126 1/4
SMAH4 Soymeal 424.8 430.2 433.4 438.8 442.0
BOAH4 Soybean Oil 37.49 37.77 37.92 38.20 38.35
WHAH4 Wheat 557 1/4 561 570 1/2 574 1/2 583 3/4
WHAN4 Wheat 571 574 3/4 584 587 3/4 597
RCAH4 Rice 15.401 15.542 15.596 15.737 15.791
KWAH4 KC Wheat 609 1/2 613 1/2 623 1/2 627 1/2 637 1/2
MWAH4 MINN Wheat 606 1/4 609 1/4 615 3/4 618 3/4 625 1/4
OTAH4 Oats 385 389 1/2 392 1/4 396 1/2 399 1/2
Calculations based on previous session. Data collected 01/15/2014
Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use.



DAILY CATTLE COMMENTARY
01/16/14
Packer margins move to black with beef at record high; more up

The cattle market remains in a steep and accelerating uptrend and has the
supply fundamentals to trade to a higher price level. Beef production from the
4th quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014 is expected to drop by a record
590 million pounds. Adjusting to the sharp drop in production may require higher
price. Production normally declines by 200 to 400 million pounds so this is a
major adjustment. Traders remain concerned over the consumer resistance to higher prices but this may take
some time. For now, futures are having a tough time keeping up with the rapid advance in beef and cash market
prices. USDA boxed beef cutout values were up $2.73 at mid-session yesterday and closed $3.58 higher at
$224.62. This was up from $210.13 the prior week and is yet another new all-time high. The surge in beef prices
of the past week has helped to push packer profit margins to the black for the first time since September. News
that Texas cattle traded as high as $142.00 in the cash market yesterday (another new all-time high), up $3.00
from last week, helped to support and leaves April cattle at a discount to the cash market. April Cattle traded up to
as high as 139.37 yesterday and managed to take out this high overnight. Higher beef prices and continued
tightening supply expectations helped to support the move to yet another new all-time high for nearby futures.
Slaughter came in well below expectations at 116,000 head. This brings the total for the week so far to 354,000
head, up from 332,000 last week at this time but down from 378,000 a year ago.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
There is still no sign of a short-term peak and while getting overbought, technical indicators do not seem to be at
an extreme. The futures discount to the cash might even suggest that the market is a little cheap. April cattle is
approaching a long held upside target of 140.55 as next resistance. At the other extreme, the move above the
December 2012 old contract high leaves a technical count all the way up at 144.07 which can not be ruled out as
the longer-term target. Close-in support comes in at 138.95 and 138.27.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.


CATTLE COMPLEX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

LIVE CATTLE (FEB) 01/16/2014: The market rallied to a new contract high. Daily stochastics have risen into
overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day
moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a
bullish indicator for trend. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market's posture is
bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. The next upside objective is 140.720. The
9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around
140.220 and 140.720, while 1st support hits today at 138.650 and below there at 137.550.

FEEDER CATTLE (MAR) 01/16/2014: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower
price action. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend
has turned up. Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday's gap on the day session chart.
The market's close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next downside objective is
now at 167.269. The next area of resistance is around 168.362 and 168.618, while 1st support hits today at
167.688 and below there at 167.269.

DAILY HOGS COMMENTARY
01/16/14
Tighter beef supply may soon help support pork; consolidate

Anticipation of improving cash market news ahead has helped to provide
underlying support and the surge in cattle and beef prices is the primary reason
for the optimism. However, short-term cash fundamental news is still sloppy as
ample short-term supply and sluggish pork demand news has helped to limit the
advance. Absorbing the hefty short-term pork supply due to near record high
weights remains a negative force. Weekly average weights for Iowa-Southern
Minnesota as of January 11th came in at 282.6 pounds, down from 282.9 the
previous week and up 6.1 pounds from last year. The "extra" tonnage may be helping to hold down pork values.
USDA pork cutout values, released after the close yesterday, came in at $83.80, down $1.19 from Tuesday but
up from $82.93 the previous week. February hogs closed 60 higher yesterday and managed to trade up to the
highest price level since January 3rd. Higher trade in pork product late Tuesday helped to support the early
buying. Product prices were lower at mid-session yesterday but this did not seem to generate much selling. The
market found some support from lower average weights. Slaughter came in slightly below expectations at
429,000 head. This brings the total for the week so far to 1.284 million head, up 180,000 from last week (warmer
weather) and up from 1.281 million a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index as of January 13th was 80.67, down 38
cents from the previous session and up from 80.33 the previous week.

TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS:
The upside seems a bit limited at the moment but a seasonal decline in supply should help the cash market soon.
Tightening red meat supply is also a positive factor and should help support. February hog close-in support is at
the 85.97-85.62 zone with 88.52 as the next short-term upside target.

NEW RECOMMENDATIONS:
None.

PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS:
Long February hog 88.00 call from 62 with an objective of 197. Risk to 27.


PORK COMPLEX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

LEAN HOGS (FEB) 01/16/2014: Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price
action. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.
Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday's gap on the day session chart. A positive
setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective is 87.220. The next area of
resistance is around 86.870 and 87.220, while 1st support hits today at 86.320 and below there at 86.100.



DAILY TECHNICAL STATISTICS
CLOSE
9 DAY
RSI
14 DAY
RSI
14 DAY
SLOW
STOCH D
14 DAY
SLOW
STOCH K
4 DAY
M AVG
9 DAY
M AVG
18 DAY
M AVG
45 DAY
M AVG
60 DAY
M AVG
MEAT COMPLEX
LCG4 139.420 86.09 79.05 95.81 97.83 137.59 137.01 135.67 134.24 134.20
FCH4 168.025 56.38 56.65 58.96 48.81 167.24 167.82 167.50 165.95 165.78
LHG4 86.600 54.71 49.29 38.49 49.12 85.95 85.94 85.92 87.99 88.95
Calculations based on previous session. Data collected 01/15/2014
Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use.

DAILY SWING STATISTICS
Contract Support 2 Support 1 Pivot Resist 1 Resist 2
MEAT COMPLEX
LCG4 Live Cattle 137.520 138.620 139.120 140.220 140.720
FCH4 Feeder Cattle 167.268 167.687 167.943 168.362 168.618
LHG4 Lean Hogs 86.070 86.300 86.650 86.870 87.220
Calculations based on previous session. Data collected 01/15/2014
Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use.



***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent
verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or
commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully
consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without
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