CIVE1146 2012 Ebook (v4)

School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering
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Catchment Water Management

Author

Dr Nira Jayasuriya, School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT University
Dr Muhammed Bhuiyan, School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT
University
Dr Michael Moore, School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT University

This eBook was developed to support the delivery of CIVE1145, Catchment Water Management
for the School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering at RMIT University.

Cover: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed through Gimp Savvy
(http://gimp-savvy.com/PHOTO-ARCHIVE/

Published by ADG,
SEH College,
RMIT University,
Melbourne, Victoria,
Australia 3000.
RMIT University
2012.

Project Development Team

Professor Julianne Reid
Dean (Academic Development) Project Sponsorship

Greg Plumb Instructional Design

Geoff Marchiori/Stephanie Vella Desktop Publishing

This courseware is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the
Copyright Act 1968 and subsequent amendments, no part may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system or transmitted by any means or process whatsoever
without the prior written permission of the publisher.

ISBN 13 978-1-921426-10-0

Published in Australia, 2012

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: The Collection and Analysis of Hydrological Data ...................................................... 1
Collecting and Checking Hydrological Data ...................................................................................... 1
Rainfall ..................................................................................................................................................... 3
Computation of Average Precipitation ............................................................................................... 4
Arithmetic average method ...................................................................................................................... 4
Thiessen network method ......................................................................................................................... 4
Isohyetal map method ............................................................................................................................... 5
Streamflow .......................................................................................................................................... 6
Streamgauging .......................................................................................................................................... 6
Stage Measurement and Recording .................................................................................................... 7
Velocity-area method ............................................................................................................................... 8
The Assessment of Hydrologic Data .................................................................................................. 9
Double Mass Curve Analysis ............................................................................................................. 9
Filling in the missing data ........................................................................................................................ 9
Normal Ratio Method ........................................................................................................................10
Regression Line Method ....................................................................................................................10
Isohyetal Method ...............................................................................................................................11
Chapter 2: Computation of Flood Hydrographs ..............................................................................13
Computation of Rainfall Losses and Baseflow Separation ................................................................13
Baseflow and Baseflow Separation ...................................................................................................15
Chapter 3: Hydrological Systems ........................................................................................................17
Fundamentals of Hydrological System Transformation ....................................................................17
Hydrological Models .........................................................................................................................18
Chapter 4: Flood Routing River and Storage Routing ................................................................21
Flood Routing ....................................................................................................................................22
Derivation of storage discharge equations .........................................................................................25
The Muskinghum routing procedure ...................................................................................................... 27
Example: (Chin example 5.38) ............................................................................................................... 28
Storage routing through an uncontrolled reservoir - using a semi-graphical method ............................. 31
Runoff Routing ..................................................................................................................................31
Advantages ............................................................................................................................................. 31
Disadvantages ......................................................................................................................................... 32
RORB ................................................................................................................................................32

Chapter 5: Using Hydrological Data to Produce IFD Curves and Rainfall Patterns ..................35
Design Rainfall Profiles for Hong Kong ...........................................................................................36
Depth area ratio ...................................................................................................................................... 39
Accuracy of IDF design rainfall ............................................................................................................. 39
Rainfall Temporal Patterns ................................................................................................................40
Reference: ............................................................................................................................................... 41
Runoff from Storms ...........................................................................................................................43
Chapter 6: Estimating Peak Flow Rates of Storm Runoff .............................................................45
Estimating Peak Flow Rates ..............................................................................................................45
Estimation of peak flow rates for small to medium-sized catchments.................................................... 46
References: ............................................................................................................................................. 46
The Rational Method .........................................................................................................................47
For ARIs other than 10 years .................................................................................................................. 48
Advantages of the Rational Method ....................................................................................................... 49
Limitations of the Rational Method ........................................................................................................ 49
Chapter 7: Rainfall Abstractions ....................................................................................................51
Distribution of soil moisture () during the downward movement of water .......................................... 52
Hortons Equation ..............................................................................................................................53
Phillips Equation ..............................................................................................................................53
Green-Ampt Method ..........................................................................................................................54
Ponding Time ....................................................................................................................................56
Infiltration rate after ponding ................................................................................................................. 57
Chapter 8: Evaporation and Evapotranspiration..........................................................................59
Combined Aerodynamic and Energy Balance Evaporation Equation ...............................................60
Pan evaporation ...................................................................................................................................... 61
Transpiration .......................................................................................................................................... 61
Actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) ............................................. 61

Chapter 9: Soil-Plant-Water Relationships ....................................................................................63
Soil .....................................................................................................................................................63
Soil-Plant-Water Relationships ..........................................................................................................63
Volume and mass relationships of soil constituents ............................................................................... 66
Surface tension and capillarity ............................................................................................................... 68
Soil moisture tension .............................................................................................................................. 68
Total soil water potential ........................................................................................................................ 69
Effective rainfall ..................................................................................................................................... 69
Soil moisture characteristics ................................................................................................................... 69
Salt-affected Soil ...............................................................................................................................70
Soil Moisture Constants .....................................................................................................................71
Measurement of Soil Moisture ..........................................................................................................73
Gravimetric method ................................................................................................................................ 73
Tensiometer ............................................................................................................................................ 73
Net Irrigation Requirement (NIR) .....................................................................................................74
Gross Irrigation Requirement (GIR) ..................................................................................................74
Irrigation efficiency ................................................................................................................................ 75
Chapter 10: Rainfall-runoff Process Models ...................................................................................77
Rainfall-runoff Process Models .........................................................................................................77
Water yield models ................................................................................................................................. 77
Hydrological Model Calibration and Simulation ...............................................................................78
Process Models ..................................................................................................................................79
The Boughton Model .........................................................................................................................80
The SIMHYD Model .........................................................................................................................83
The AWBM model (Boughton 2002) ................................................................................................85
Chapter 11: Climate Change ..............................................................................................................87
Global Warming and Climate Change ...............................................................................................87
Modeling Approaches to Predict Future Climate...............................................................................87
Sea Level Rise ...................................................................................................................................88
Climate Change in Australia ..............................................................................................................89
Predicted rainfall change in Australia ..................................................................................................... 89

The Collection and Analysis of Hydrological Data 1

Chapter 1: The Collection and Analysis of
Hydrological Data
Hydrology is the science that deals with the depletion and replenishment of the world's water
resources. From an engineering water resources point of view the focus is on the estimation of
these phenomena and how they relate to human activities.
Of the worlds water, 97% is sea water, 3% is fresh water, of this 75% is in ice caps and
glaciers and 25% is in ground water, either in rivers, lakes or underground, with 0.04% in the
atmosphere. The Hydrologic Cycle powered by the sun and gravity continually conveys
water from the oceans, rivers, surface water, trees and plants and plants to the atmosphere
and then returns it to the surface.
Note: The topics covered in this course are those of importance to engineers and do not
encompass the whole area of hydrology.
The objective of this chapter is to introduce you to hydrological data (rainfall, stream flow
and climatic data), explaining how it is collected and checked for accuracy and consistency.
As the amount and frequency of rainfall is a random event it is necessary to use statistical
methods to obtain estimates of the probability of occurrence of rainfall and flood events of
specified magnitudes. This can only be accomplished if comprehensive data records of such
events are available. It is usually carried out by government organizations.
Collecting and Checking Hydrological Data
The water we deal with is provided through the hydrology cycle. This circulation, driven by
the suns energy and gravity, is the movement of moisture from surface water by evaporation
and from plants by transpiration to clouds which, when the atmospheric conditions are
favourable, release it in the form of precipitation. The figure shown is a schematic diagram of
the hydrologic cycle.

Figure 1.1. The hydrological cycle, copyright Veissman, Warren and Lewis, Gary L., Introduction to
Hydrology (page 2), fifth edition, Upper Saddle River, London, Prentice Hall, 2003

Some rainfall may be intercepted by trees, grass, other vegetation and structural objects and
will eventually return to the atmosphere by evaporation.
Once precipitation reaches the ground, some of it may fill depressions (become depression
storage), part may penetrate the ground (infiltration) to replenish soil runoff that is flow
over the earths surface to a defined channel such as a stream.
Water entering the ground may take several paths.
Some may directly evaporate if adequate transfer from the soil to the surface is
maintained.
Vegetation using soil moisture or groundwater directly can also transmit infiltrated
water to the atmosphere by a process known as transpiration.
Infiltrated water may likewise replenish soil moisture deficiencies and water storage
provided in groundwater reservoirs, which in turn maintain dry weather streamflow.
Water stored in depressions will eventually evaporate or infiltrate (percolation) through the
ground surface.
Surface runoff along the course of a stream, can evaporate, or infiltrate.
Water Resources Engineering requires the measurement of the following data over many
years in order to produce records that provide the information needed in designing projects.
temperature - daily maximum and minimum
humidity twice daily
rainfall duration, intensity and daily totals
wind speed and direction - daily
evaporation - daily
sunshine - daily
radiation - daily
cloud cover - daily
Evaporation is dependent on air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation
and the surface area of the water body. It increases as the temperature and the wind speed
increase but decreases as the humidity increases.
In addition to these meteorological observations it is necessary to measure streamflow.
This work is usually carried out by government authorities, in Australia by the
Commonwealth Government Bureau of Meteorology, in the USA by the National Weather
Service.

Rainfall
Measuring rainfall must take into account that any individual storm varies both spatially
(over the area it falls on) and temporally (over time). To see the importance of these, view
Figure 1.2, which shows the effects that catchment basin shape and rainfall variation can have
on the hydrographs from a given storm (the hydrographs show the flow rate, Q in m
3
/sec.,
versus time at the basin outlet, in each case the outlet is at the bottom of the figure).

Figure 1.2. The collection of rainfall data, copyright RMIT 2009 (Michael Moore)

In addition there are variations between storms and also between different localities. All these
are dealt with by analysing the data on a statistical basis. Section5.2.2 in Chin illustrates the
methods used for averaging the rainfall an area/different areas. These are:
the arithmetic average of results from the different recording stations
weighting the input according to the area the station represents the Thiessen Polygon
technique
constructing an Isohyetal Map of the rainfall showing contours of equal precipitation,
calculating the rainfall in each area between the contours, then adding and averaging.

Computation of Average Precipitation
Arithmetic average method
The simplest method of estimating average precipitation computes the arithmetic average of
the recorded precipitation values at stations in or near the area. It is suitable only for small
areas (25 to 500 square kilometres). If the precipitation is non-uniform and the stations
unevenly distributed within the area, the arithmetic average may be incorrect.

Average precipitation:
23 30 20 14 11
19.6
5
mm mm
+ + + +
= =
Thiessen network method
A Thiessen network is constructed by connecting adjacent stations on a map by straight lines
and erecting perpendicular bisectors to each connecting line. The construction of the network
is as shown in Figure 1.3

Figure 1.3. Thiesson network method, copyright Veissman, Warren and Lewis, Gary L., Introduction
to Hydrology (page 33), fifth edition, Upper Saddle River, London, Prentice Hall, 2003
a) connect rain gauge locations
b) draw perpendicular bisectors
c) calculate Thiessen weights (A1, A2, A3)
d) a completed network.

Average rainfall depth over the entire catchment =
i i
i
AP
A

where:
Ai is the area of the i
th
polygon; Pi is the precipitation of the i
th
gauge
This method can be used in large areas, as the weights (area) do not change with time (500
5000 km
2
). The procedure is not suitable for mountainous areas. The Thiessen Network is
fixed for a given gauge configuration. It is useful in computer applications. The areal average
rainfall could be calculated on any time interval (daily, weekly, monthly or annually) a using
simple spreadsheet model.
Isohyetal map method
Construction of the Isohyetal Map is given in Figure 1.4 .

Figure 1.4. Construction of isohyetal map, copyright Veissman, Warren and Lewis, Gary L.,
Introduction to Hydrology (page 31), fifth edition, Upper Saddle River, London, Prentice Hall,
2003
a) locate rain gauges and plot values;
b) interpolate between rain gauges;
c) plot isohyets

To compute average precipitation from an Isohyetal Map the areas enclosed between
successive isohyets are measured and multiplied by the average precipitation between the
isohyets. The sum of these products divided by the total area is the average precipitation.
Average rainfall depth over the entire catchment =
i i
i
AP
A

where, Ai is the area between successive isohyets; Pi is the average precipitation between the
isohyets
This method is the most accurate method for determining average precipitation over the area.
However, the area between the isohyets varies with the storm. Thus for every storm, separate
isohyets need to be drawn.
Streamflow
The standard gauging method involves splitting up the rivers cross section into a number of
partitions and measuring the velocity at two or more depths in each cross section, enabling
computation of the flow rate.
The most accurate results are obtained when the flow at the cross section being gauged is
reasonably uniform at all discharges. In this case after numerous measurements at different
flow rates a stage-discharge curve for the river at that point can be drawn. This is also know
as a rating curve. This is developed by measuring the water level (stage) with flow
(discharge) for a specific section of the river. An automatic flow depth (stage) recorder is
installed and a continuous record of the flow height (and thus the flow rate) made. This
relationship is often established overtime by measuring flow at all ranges of water level when
they occur.
Streamgauging
It is necessary to measure and record continuous streamflow discharge or the flow rate
(m
3
/sec) for future reference. The measurements could be on daily basis or on short time
intervals, specially during a storm event. There are two steps involved in recording
continuous flow. These are the:
continuous measurement and record stage (water level or gauge height, Figure 1.5)
determination of the stage discharge relationship (rating curve) to obtain the discharge
(flowrate).


Stage Measurement and Recording

a) US Geological Survey, Water Science for
Schools
1

c) Copyright RMIT University, 2009

b) US Forest Service, Research Topics
2

Figure 1.5. Stage measurement and recording

1
http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/measureflow.htm
2
http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/topics/water/tts/images/xyz_flume.jpg

Velocity-area method
Divide the cross-section into a number of sub-areas as shown in Figure 1.6 and determine the
area, a, and the mean velocity of flow, V, in each sub-area. Then:
i i
i
Q aV =

Areas are determined by sounding depths at uniform increments of distance across the
stream.
Mean velocity in each sub-area is determined as the mean velocity in the vertical at the mid-
point of the sub-area. This is determined by measuring the velocity with a current meter
(propeller type or cup type).

Figure 1.6 Subareas of the channel cross section to determine average discharge of the channel
(Activity 1C copyright RMIT 2009 (Nira Jayasuriya))
Mean velocity, V
m
, in the vertical is determined by:
i. multi-point method:
1
m i
V V
n
=

ii. two-point method:
( )
0.2 0.8
0.5
m
V V V = +
iii. one-point method:
0.6 m
V V =
Alternatively, velocity can be determined using a float:
surface float 0.85
m s
V V = , where
s
V is the surface velocity
rod float
m t
V V = , where
t
V is the rod float velocity.

The Assessment of Hydrologic Data
All data collected for analysis must be checked for accuracy and consistency. Errors in rainfall
data could occur due to:
measurements
location of recording instrument
recording.
Adjustments can be made to correct incorrect values and/or fill in missing data. Sometimes it
becomes necessary to ascertain time trends in rainfall data. The changes may be due to
change in gauge location, change in the immediate surrounding (such as construction of
buildings or tree growth) and change in observation techniques. The following methods are
used for this purpose.
Double Mass Curve Anal ysis
The accumulated totals of the gauge in question (for instance at station X in Figure 1.7) are
compared with the corresponding totals for a representative group of (n) nearby gauges as
shown in Figure 1.7 (the analysis needs a minimum of 10 gauges).

Figure 1.7. Double mass curve analysis, copyright RMIT 2009 (Michael Moore)
Plot the cumulative annual data of station X, (X) versus the average of sum of the
cumulative annual data of the nearby (n) stations.
Observe any change in the trend as shown on the graph. For example, if after Y years the
slope changes from a to b, the data from Y years on should be adjusted by multiplying by a
factor of a/b to make all records compatible.
Filling in the missing data
Missing data could be daily values or accumulated values. Nearby rainfall values are
considered in order to fill in the missing data. Assume some data is missing at Station X on
the map shown below. A, B and C are three nearby rainfall gauging stations. Daily values are
filled in using the Normal Ratio Method described below. Other methods are available.

Normal Ratio Method
If the mean annual rainfall of the nearby stations does not differ by more than 10% of the
mean annual rainfall of the station under consideration (station X in Figure 1.8), the
arithmetic mean of the nearby station values is taken:
( )
C B A X
P P P P + + =
3
1

where:
P
X
is the missing rainfall data and PA, P
B
and P
C
are the rainfalls at the nearby stations for
the missing period.

Figure 1.8 Rainfall gauge network, copyright RMIT University

If they do differ by more than 10%, the mean of the weighted rainfall values is determined
using:
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ + =
C
C
X
B
B
X
A
A
X
X
P
N
N
P
N
N
P
N
N
P
3
1

Where,
C B A
N N N , , and
X
N are mean annual rainfall at station A, B, C and X respectively.
Regression Line Method
Data is filled in a simple regression analysis using data from a nearby catchment. Assume
January 31
st
1980 data is missing at Station X in Figure 1.8. Obtain a regression relationship
between rainfall data from stations X and A, using rainfall values on the 31
st
of January of the
other years (Figure 1.9). Then substitute the rainfall value observed in gauge A on 31
st
of
January 1980 into the regression equation to calculate the rainfall recorded n gauge X.

X p qA = +
There should be at least 20 sample data
points to determine regression
equation (q and p)

Figure 1.9: Regression relationship between rainfall values in Stations X and A

Isohyetal Method
Comparatively this method is more accurate but tedious method to fill missing rainfall
values. For each missing day, draw the isohyets using nearby raingauge values and
interpolate the value for the unknown (X) station (Figure 1.10).

Figure 1.10 Isohyetal method, copyright RMIT 2009

Hydrology is very dependent on the availability of large amount of data that collected over
many years, usually on a daily basis and in a number of locations. It is essential that the data
is representative and homogeneous.
To be representative the data must be gathered over long enough time period so that
sufficient information is available to enable the analysis employed reflect the actual situation.
Moving the recording site of a rain gauge or stream gauging station or changing the
equipment used can often render the sample data inhomogeneous. Construction of dams on
rivers and changes in the land use in a river catchment can also lead to inhomogeneous data.
Sampling errors can arise from the occurrence of an extreme storm event as well as errors
caused by poor measuring site locations and in digitizing analogue data.
Users should be aware of these accuracies when reviewing the impact of design rainfall
estimation on flood prediction.


Computation of Flood Hydrographs 13

Chapter 2: Computation of Flood
Hydrographs
Hydrographs give a record of the flow passing a certain point on the stream. This information
is used in predicting the flow rates at downstream locations, in routing flood waves through
dams and reservoirs, estimating the yield that can be obtained from reservoirs of different
capacities and in designing detention basins that are used to reduce the magnitudes of flood
flows downstream of the basin.
The estimation of the flood hydrograph from a storm can be accomplished by a number of
methods, each of which can be considered as producing an output (the flood) from the input
(rainfall) when it is processed by a model.
Computation of Rainfall Losses and Baseflow Separation
A hydrograph is a graph of the runoff from a storm showing the outflow rate versus time at a
specific point along the stream. Before constructing a hydrograph it is necessary to ascertain
how much of the rain that falls on a catchment becomes streamflow. That portion of the
rainfall that runs off to a stream is termed the rainfall excess, the other portion is called the
loss. A number of loss models have been formulated.
Total rainfall = Excess rainfall + Losses
The following models are applied to rainfall hyetographs when hydrographs are required.
Loss Models (AR&R Section 6.4 (1987) Book II Section 3.4 (1999))
1. A Constant Fraction is lost from each of the rainfall quantities in each time period of
the hyetograph, for example 1/3 of the rainfall in each time period (See Figure 2.1 (i)
below).
2. A Constant Loss Rate of a set number of mm is subtracted from each hyetograph
period. As an example 4 mm (unless the rainfall is less than 4 mm) is subtracted (See
Figure 2.1 (ii) below)..
3. A set initial loss followed by a constant continuing loss. For example the first 10
mm may be set as an initial loss followed by 2 mm/hr for the remainder of the storm
period. This is the most commonly used method in Australia (See Figure 2.1 (iii)
below)..
4. Infiltration Equation or curves. These are being used more frequently as computer
runoff models become more common. The best known is Hortons Infiltration
Formula:
0
( )
kt
c c
f f f f e
= +
where:
f is the infiltration capacity at time t,
f
o
is its initial value
f
c
is its final value (all in mm/hr) and k is a property of the soil.

These parameters must be evaluated for the catchment under consideration. Read
Section 5.3.3.2 (Chin) for more details on the Horton Infiltration Equation (See Figure
2.1 (iv) below).
5. Runoff Coefficient. This is the simplest loss model. It is used when only peak flow
rates are required. The total rainfall volume is multiplied by the runoff coefficient.
Runoff Q is Q C I A = where C is the runoff coefficient, I is the rainfall intensity
and A is area (See Figure 2.1 (v) below)...

Figure 2.1 Loss models used to estimate rainfall excess, copyright Pilgrim, D. H. (ed.). Australian
rainfall and runoff: a guide to flood estimation. Book 2, Engineers Australia, 1999, page 43

Baseflow and Baseflow Separation
Under normal conditions there is flow in a stream before the rainfall excess begins to enter
the stream. This flow is termed baseflow (Figure 2.2). It comprises that portion of stream flow
that is not the direct runoff due to the rainfall excess. It consists of shallow sub-surface flow
and water that enters the stream from deep sub-surface flow. (AR&R Section 8.3 (1987), Book V
Section 2.3 (1999))
When recording the flow rate in the stream that is due to the rainfall excess this baseflow
must be subtracted from the recorded flow. Performing this is termed baseflow separation.
Figure 8.1, AR&R (1987), or Book V Figure 2.1 (1999) gives a straight forward method.

Figure 2.2 Rainfall and streamflow relationship, AR&R Section 8.3 (1987), Book V Section 2.3
(1999)

Direct runoff (surface runoff) = Total runoff Baseflow
Surface runoff = Rainfall excess in volume.
Note that the time period AB in the sketch below is the duration of the base length of the
surface runoff hydrograph.


Streamflow = Surface runoff + Baseflow
To separate baseflow from the total hydrograph it is necessary to identify three features of the
hydrograph as shown in Figures 2.3 and 2.4.
1. The start of surface runoff (A)
2. The end of surface runoff (B)
3. The shape of the baseflow hydrograph between these two points.

Refer to presentation slides in Topic 2 for methods in separation of baseflow.

Figure 2.3. Baseflow and baseflow separation, copyright RMIT University 2008 (Nira Jayasuriya)

I
Figure 2.4 Typical baseflow separation, copyright Pilgrim, D. H. (ed.). Australian rainfall and
runoff: a guide to flood estimation. Book 5, Engineers Australia, 1999, page 27

Hydrological Systems 17

Chapter 3: Hydrological Systems
Fundamentals of Hydrological System Transformation
A system is a set of interacting or interdependent entities with interactive relationship
between one another. In hydrology, behavioural modelling is a modelling approach that
focuses on the modelling of the behaviour of hydrological systems (e.g. catchment).
The behavioural modelling approach makes the main assumption that every system, given its
environment, has a most probable behaviour. A catchment is a closed boundary system
where surface runoff carries through stream to the basin outlet (Figure 3.1). Hydrological
models are used to transform rainfall into runoff over the catchment (Figure 3.2).

Figure 3.1. A schematic representation of a closed system, copyright RMIT University 2008

Figure 3.2. The concept of hydrological modelling, copyright RMIT University 2008

Hydrological Models
Hydrological models are simplified, conceptual representations of a part of the hydrologic
cycle. They are primarily used for streamflow estimation and for understanding hydrological
processes. There are many types of hydrological models, which may operate over different
spatial scales and time steps developed for various applications. Those models can be used
for catchment water balance accounting, water availability forecasting, and flood forecasting.
Recent research in hydrological modelling tries to understand the behaviour of hydrologic
systems to make better predictions and to face the major challenges in water resources
management.

Rainfall-Runoff Models are either:
STOCHASTIC or DETERMINISTIC
The output has certain statistical properties..
The output is derived from the input that has
some probability function in its data.
An example is the Rational Model which has
a rainfall of a specified ARL.
There is no stochastic component for any
given input.
The output is entirely predictable.
An example is the Boughton Model
described below.

Deterministic Models can be either:
Models based on data or Models based on process descriptions
These models are black box systems, using
mathematical and statistical concepts to link
rainfall to runoff. Commonly used techniques
are regression, transfer functions, and neural
networks
In these no attempt is made to have the
structure represent the movement of the
water through the catchment.
Only the catchment input and output have
any physical meaning.
These models try to represent the physical
processes observed in the real world.
In these an attempt is made to simulate
the hydrologic components and their
functions in a catchment.
Typical processes simulated are:
Interception
effective rainfall
overland flow
infiltration
evapotranspiration
groundwater flow
channel flow.


Application of Hydrological Models
Some of the useful applications of hydrological models are:
determining the water balance of a catchment
mitigating and predicting flood, landslide and drought risk
real-time flood forecasting and flood warning
designing irrigation schemes and managing agricultural productivity
providing drinking water
designing dams for water supply or hydroelectric power generation
designing bridges
designing urban drainage system
predicting geo-morphological changes, such as erosion or sedimentation
assessing the impacts of natural and anthropogenic environmental change such as
landuse change on water resources
assessing contaminant transport risk and establishing environmental policy guidelines.

Figure 3.3 Schematic diagram of steps in application of hydrological models in engineering practice,
copyright RMIT University 2008

Figure 3.4 Design problem, copyright RMIT University 2008

Figure 3.5 Application hydrological models, copyright RMIT University 2008

Flood Routing River and Storage Routing 21

Chapter 4: Flood Routing River and
Storage Routing
The aim of this session is to help you understand how routing procedures are used to
calculate the effects of temporal and spatial variations of a flood hydrograph (shape and
peakflow) as it moves through the reach of a river, or through a reservoir.
Routing is important in:
flood estimation
evaluation of flood mitigation schemes
flood forecasting systems
design of dam spillways and the design of detention basins in urban drainage systems.
As shown in Figure 4.1, routing could be separated into Flood Routing (Storage Routing) or
Runoff Routing. Flood routing also could be separated to River Reach Routing (Channel
Routing) and Reservoir Routing. This chapter will concentrate on River Reach Routing and
Runoff Routing. Reservoir routing will be studied in detailed in the Stormwater
Management (CIVE1154) course.
River reach routing accounts for the effects of storage along the channel that has on the
translation of the peak flow rate, always a delay, and the attenuation of the wave shape
(Figure 5.2) Normally the hydrograph at the upstream end is known (calculated from the
excess rainfall at the upstream end) and it is necessary to calculate the hydrograph at the
downstream end. The routing is carried out to obtain the travel time from the upstream point
of the stream or reservoir to the downstream point of the stream as well as the peak at the
downstream end of the stream or reservoir.
If tributaries join the stream between the inlet and outlet points their inflow must be added.

Figure 4.1 Routing Principles, copyright RMIT University


Figure 4.2: Flood Routing: Input and Output Hydrographs, Brigham Young University
3

Flood Routing
Flood routing or storage routing consists of computing the change in shape of a hydrograph
as it moves from one location to another along a river channel (Figure 4.3). the storage is the
temporary storage of the flow along the stream channel, on flood plains and in reservoirs,
dams and retarding basins. The effect this has on the hydrograph depends on:
the relative volumes of the flood and the storage
the physical characteristics of the storage.

Figure 4.3: Routed hydrograph, Brigham Young University

3
http://frontpage.et.byu.edu/ce531/notes/Routing.pdf

Storage routing involves solving the continuity (conservation of mass) equation for the reach
(Figure 4.4):
S
I Q
t

where:
I = the average inflow rate at upstream during time t in m
3
/s.
Q = the average outflow rate at downstream during time t in m
3
/s
S = Volume of temporary or channel storage in m
3
. The primary requirement for river
reach routing based on the inflow and outflow hydrographs are the volume of the storage
must be the same at the beginning and end of the period of analysis.
This is put in the form shown below and solved over finite time periods, T (same as t), called
the routing period. It should be such that H/4 > T > H/8 where H is the rise time of the
hydrograph.
( ) ( )
1 2 1 2 2 1
2 2
T T
I I Q Q S S + + =
The subscripts refer to the start and end of the time period. Flood routing consists of solving
this equation, period by period. The known quantities are, T, as it is chosen, I
1
and I
2
from the
inflow hydrograph and Q
1
and S
1
which are initially zero and then known from the equation
of the previous time period. Q
2
and S
2
are unknown and a second equation is needed to find
them, usually of the form either, S =f(Q) or S = f(I,Q).

( )
0
t
t
S I Q dt =

Figure 4.4. Inflow and outflow hydrographs, copyright RMIT University 2008 (Nira Jayasuriya)


A channel reach or reservoir may behave in a linear or nonlinear manner when a flood wave
passes through it.
1. Linear routing: Q, the outflow, is proportional to I, the inflow (Figure 4.5). In this case
the travel time and velocity within the reach are constant for all discharges. The
storage, S, is related to the outflow: S K q = , where K is a constant with the
dimensions of time and is the average travel time of the flood wave through the reach
and q is a representative discharge for the reach.
2. Non-linear routing: Here: ( ) S K q q = , where K(q) is a function of the discharge,
often assumed to be a power relationship and:
m
S K q = . Figure 4.5 shows the
effects of non-linearity of the storage-discharge on the outflow.

Figure 4.5. Effect of non-linearity of storage-discharge relation on outflow, copyright Pilgrim, D. H.
(ed.). Australian rainfall and runoff: a guide to flood estimation. Book 5, Engineers Australia,
1999, page 4


Derivation of storage discharge equations
1. Reservoir routing
In this case the storage (S) is concentrated at one point and the outflow (Q) is
determined by the storage only. The reservoir routing is carried out to obtain the
outflow from a concentrated storage (e.g. reservoir, detention basin, wetland)
knowing the inflow hydrograph to the basin. As mentioned earlier reservoir routing
will be studied in detailed in the Stormwater Management (CIVE1154) course.
2. Routing through river reaches
Here the storage (S) is a function of both input (I) and output (Q) discharges.
For river reaches if a plot of S versus Q is made the result is a loop as shown in Figure
4.6. In these cases the most common assumption is that the storage is a function of a
weighted discharge, I and Q defined as:
] ) 1 ( [ Q x xI K S + =
where:
x represents the relative importance of the inflow to the outflow in determining the
storage.
For most streams 0.0 < x < 0.3. If x = 0, the outflow determines the storage as in the
case for a reservoir (outflow is not dependent on inflow). If x = 0.5, outflow and
inflow have equal effects. K represents the time between the centre of mass of the
inflow and outflow hydrographs (Figure 4.7). K defines the Storage Delay Time or
the lag time. Once x and K are obtained for a river reach section, they are constant
for that particular section and will not depend on the storm magnitude or the input
hydrograph (I values)
The above equation could be written as S KD =
where:
Q x xI D ) 1 ( + =
As mentioned in Chapter 3, in modelling it is important to start with an actual set of
data (observed upstream and downstream flow data during a storm event) to obtain
the x and K values for the river reach. The K and x values for a particular river reach
section are found by plotting the Storage (S) versus D for various values of x (trial
and error by assuming values for x). The x which gives the best straight line is chosen
and K is the slope of that line. S values are obtained by the storage (volume of water)
of the river reach at a particular time period and D is calculated from the actual
upstream (input) and downstream (output) hydrographs.
This forms the basis of the Muskinghum Routing procedure.

falling
rising
3
Q
(Discharge)
m
sec
3
S
m
3
(Discharge)
m
sec
( ) Inflow I
( ) Outflow
( ) , S f Q I =
( ) dS Q I dt =
t
s
t
s
t
t
S

Figure 4.6. Inflow and outflow hydrographs, copyright RMIT University 2008 (Nira Jayasuriya)

Figure 4.7. Centres of mass of inflows and outflows, copyright RMIT University 2008 (Nira
Jayasuriya)

The Muskinghum routing procedure
1. Select starting and finishing times which have approximately equal river stages
(water levels) and thus equal channel storage amounts (volumes).
2. Select the routing interval so that H/4 > T > H/8 where H is the rise time of the
hydrograph (Figure 4.4).
3. Determine storage (S) at the end of N
th
time period from the inflow and outflow
hydrographs.
]
2
)
1
(
2
)
1
1
[(
T
i
Q
i
Q
T
i
I
N
i
i
I
N
S
+
=
=
where:
i is the time period
N is the number of time periods at a particular time
T is the routing interval in seconds.
4. Compute the weighted average discharge for a trial value of x.
N
Q x
N
xI
N
D ) 1 ( + =
5. Plot the values of S
N
versus D
N
. If they plot in a straight line this trial value of x is
accepted. If not a new value of x is tried and the values recalculated and plotted.
6. When the value of x has been decided, the single valued relation between S and D is
defined graphically. If this approximates a straight line, a linear storage function
exists. 3600 S K D = , where K = the slope of this line, and is the average travel
time through the reach.
If the process gives a slight curve it can be used in a graphical procedure. If it is
distinctly curvilinear a nonlinear storage function must be used.
Once the x and K are calculated they are fixed for that particular river reach.
7. From the values of K, x and T and the Muskinghum Routing equation the outflow
hydrograph can be obtained for any input hydrograph.
Storage Equation ] ) 1 ( [ Q x xI K S + = and
Continuity Equation ( ) ( )
1 2
2
2 1
2
2 1
S S
T
Q Q
T
I I = + +

By solving the above two equations The Muskinghum Routing equation can be
derived:
2 0 2 1 1 2 1
Q C I C I C Q = + + ,
where:
0
1
2
0 1 2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
(
=
(
+

(
=
(
+

(
=
(
+

+ + =
kx T
C
k kx T
kx T
C
k kx T
k kx T
C
k kx T
C C C

These coefficients are those derived by Nash, (see Chin Sections 5.5.1.2).
Once the coefficients have been evaluated routing is carried out by successively
solving the Muskinghum Equation for Q
2
, period by period through the flood. In each
routing period, I
1
and I
2
are known from the inflow hydrograph and Q
1
has been
calculated as Q
2
in the previous step.
Example: (Chin example 5.38)
The flow hydrograph at a channel section is given by:

Time (min) Flow (m
3
/s)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
330
360
390
420
450
480
10.0
10.0
25.0
45.0
31.3
27.5
25.0
23.8
21.3
19.4
17.5
16.3
13.5
12.1
10.0
10.0
10.0

Use the Muskinghum method to estimate the hydrograph 1200 m downstream form the
channel section. Assume that X= 0.2 and K= 40 min

Solution: Note: T = 30 mins (it is taken in minutes as the K is in minutes).
0 1 2
0.5 0.5 0.5
; ;
0.5 0.5 0.5
kx T kx T k kx T
C C C
k kx T k kx T k kx T
+ ( ( (
= = =
( ( (
+ + +

0
1
2
40 0.2 0.5 30
0.149
40 40 0.2 0.5 30
40 0.2 0.5 30
0.489
40 40 0.2 0.5 30
40 40 0.2 0.5 30
0.362
40 40 0.2 0.5 30
C
C
C
(
= =
(
+

+ (
= =
(
+

(
= =
(
+

To verify the condition:
1 2 3
0.149 0.489 0.362 1 C C C + + = + + =
Substituting constraints into the Muskinghum equation:
2 1 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 1
0.146 0.489 0.362 Q C I C I C Q I I Q = + + = + +
The inflow hydrograph values are applied to the above equation to obtain the downstream
hydrograph given in this Table.


0
10
20
30
40
50
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600
Inflow
Outflow


Storage routing through an uncontrolled reservoir - using a semi-
graphical method
The storage-discharge relationship for a reservoir can be found as described above. An
uncontrolled reservoir is one in which the discharge is set by the height of the water above
the spillway and there are no gates that can be set to control the discharge. (See 3.16 in text)
The continuity equation can be arranged to be:
( ) ( )
( )
1 2 1 2 2 1
1 2
1 2 1 2
2 2
2 2
( )
T T
I I Q Q S S
S S
I I Q Q
T T
+ + =

+ + = + +

You will learn extensively about storage routing in the Stormwater Management(CIVE1154)
course.
Runoff Routing
In runoff routing the input to the routing process is the excess rainfall at various locations in
the catchment (in storage routing it is an inflow hydrograph to a point on the stream). As
with other runoff calculations a loss model is required. In addition any significant base flow
needs to be considered.
Runoff Routing requires the:
selection of a conceptual model of the catchment storage (
m
S K Q = will be used)
evaluation of the model parameters (here K and m will be found from gauged storms)
computation of the rainfall excess
a flood routing procedure to produce the outflow hydrograph.
Advantages
(See AR&R 9.2 (1987), Book V Section 3.2 (1999))
All the items listed below can be modelled.
Non-linearity of the catchment.
Spatial distribution of the storages storages are based on a stream network.
Effects of significant storages, reservoirs and large flood plains.
Spatial variation of rainfall and losses.
Changes in catchment characteristics.
Large inputs or diversions at different locations along the stream.
Hydrographs are available at any chosen point.

Disadvantages
Considerable expertise is required.
Additional computing work is needed.
The nonlinearity is modelled using a power relationship there is some evidence this
does not always produce the best result.
Use of a computer can engender a false sense of confidence in the results.
If more than one parameter is involved ( here K and m) they can interact and be hard to
evaluate.
Data errors can be magnified in a nonlinear process.
Losses must be accurately estimated to obtain a reliable result.
The model used in this course is the student version of RORB, a versatile runoff and
streamflow model that was derived by Professors Laurenson and Mein of Monash University
and is now widely used by professional engineers in routing flows for flood estimation.

RORB
The User Manual for RORB gives detailed instruction in its use. The RORB program and the
user manual can be downloaded from Monash University website
4
(See also AR&R Book V,
Sec 3.4.4 (1999)). The main steps in the RORB process are:
The catchment storage model is produced from a map of the catchment.
Based on the tributary network, the catchment is divided into 5 - 20 sub catchments.
Three are used in the next Figure to illustrate the model. (See AR&R for discussion.)

Figure 4.9. Sub catchments, copyright RMIT University 2008 (Nira Jayasuriya)

4
http://eng.monash.edu.au/civil/research/centres/water/rorb/obtain.html

A model node . is placed:
1. at the centroid of each sub-catchment area, this is where the excess rainfall is
input to the model
2. at stream junctions
3. above and below any storage reservoirs
4. where hydrographs are required, including the outlet.
Catchment Storages - representing nonlinear concentrated storages are placed
between each node.
The non-linear concentrated storages, representing the reach storage between each
node, are assumed to have the storage discharge relation:
3600
m
S k Q =
where:
S = storage (m
3
)
Q = outflow discharge (m
3
/s)
m = a dimensionless exponent, which represents the nonlinearity of the catchment
k = a dimensional empirical coefficient.
The value of m lies between 0.6 and 1.0 and is normally = 0.8. It can, however, be
greater than 1.0.
The coefficient k is the product of two factors:
c i
k k k =
where:
k
c
is an empirical coefficient applicable to the whole catchment
( ) /
i i av
k F L d = .
The dimensionless ratio, k
i
, is called the relative delay time that is applicable to an
individual stream reach. L
i
is the length of reach i, d
av
is the average flow distance in
the channel network of sub-area inflows and so ki represents the relative delay time of
storage i. F is a factor depending on the type of reach, and is 1 for natural channels.
( )
1
n
i i
av
i
a d
d
A
=
=

where
ai = area of the i
th
subcatchment
A = total area of the catchment
n = number of subcatchments
di = distance from the centroid of the i
th
subcatchment to the outlet of the
catchment.

The routing sequence is:
1. The rainfall excess is calculated for each subcatchment.
2. Starting at the upstream end the runoff is routed through each storage and the
rainfall excess is added in at each node before routing through the next storage
as the process moves downstream.
3. When a confluence is reached the hydrograph is stored and calculations made
for the joining tributary.
4. The two hydrographs are then added and routing proceeds down to the outlet.
5. Baseflow is added to find the total hydrograph.
Using Hydrological Data 35

Chapter 5: Using Hydrological Data to
Produce I FD Curves and Rainfall
Patterns
In design of hydraulic structures, design storms are used to estimate the flood peak or the
total hydrograph.
The design storm depends on storm duration (D), mean intensity of rainfall (I), recurrence
interval of the storm (F), and temporal pattern of rainfall. The mean rainfall intensity (I) is
obtained from the Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves for Australia.
This chapter shows you how IDF curves are established. You will also learn about the factors
involved in selecting the ARI (Average Recurrence Interval) and using storm rainfall patterns
to formulate a design storm. You will be introduced to loss models that are used to enable
the rainfall excess to be computed.
IDF curves or tables are essential tools for engineers involved in the design of Water
Resources Projects. They are used in the design of dams and associated structures, flood
mitigation works, roads and bridges as well as irrigation and urban drainage schemes. The
ARI is used to set the performance standard for the structure being designed. An example
would be to require the pipes in an urban drainage system to be capable of conveying the
runoff from rainfall with a 2 year ARI without surcharging (overflowing). Knowledge of the
rainfall pattern in storms is necessary when computing the spillway capacities for dams in a
catchment.
Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) or tables are one of the most useful tools for
engineers involved in designing Water Resources Projects.

Design Rainfall Profiles for Hong Kong
In Hong Kong extreme rainfall intensities (or depths) for a specified return period are
calculated using Gumbel statistics. The procedure to calculate rainfall intensities for a storm
with a specific duration and return period are given in Section 4 of the Stormwater Drainage
Manual, Planning, Design and Management Drainage Services Department, Hong Kong
Government. Calculated values are graphically presented in Figure 5.1.
Rainfall intensities are calculated using the following equations (for storm durations less than
4 hours):
( )
1
1 .............................................................................(1)
ln ln .....................................................................(2)
1
..........................
P
T
Y P
X Y
=
=
= + ..................................................(3)

where:
return period (years)
extreme depth ( ) or intensity ( )
probability of an annual maximum
reduced variate
characteristics of storm duration (see Table 2 in
1
T
X mm mm / hr
P X
Y
Stormwater Drainage
=
=
=
=
)
) Manual

A typical plot of expected intensity versus duration for a given return period is given in
Figure 4 in Stormwater Drainage Manual. The Intensity-Duration curve is calculated using
equation 4.
( )
..............................................................................(4)
c
a
I
t b
=
+

where:
extreme intensity ( )
duration (minutes)
constants depending on return period (see Table 3 in )
I mm / hr
t
a
b Stormwater Drainage Manual
c
=
=
)


Figure 5.1. IntensityDuration-Frequency Curves (for duration not exceeding 4 hours)
Adapted from the Stormwater Drainage Manual, Planning, Design and Management Drainage Services Department, Hong Kong Government (2000).

For duration exceeding 4 hours, the rainfall depth instead of the mean intensity is normally used. The Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) Relationship
for duration exceeding 4 hours is given in Table 1 (Stormwater Drainage Manual, Planning, Design and Management Drainage Services Department,
Hong Kong Government, 2000). The IDF data can be generated by dividing rainfall depth with duration.

Table 1. Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) Relationship for durations of more than 4 hours


Depth area ratio
The spatial distribution of storms is usually important in calculating the runoff from large
catchments. For any given period and duration, the average rainfall depth over an area is
generally less than the point rainfall depth.
The derived IDF curves are valid only if the catchment area is less than 25 square kilometres.
For larger catchments, the areal rainfall can be obtained by multiplying the point rainfall with
an areal-reduction factors (ARF). The following ARF are based on a Depth-Area-Duration
(DAD) analysis on local rainstorms (Hong Kong Government, 2000):
Catchment Area ARF
A (km
2
)
< 25 1.00
> 25

Accuracy of IDF design rainfall
In general the accuracy decreases with increasing ARI and decreasing duration.
Sampling errors can arise from the occurrence of an extreme storm event as well as errors
caused by poor measuring site locations and in digitizing analogue data. As discussed in
Lesson 1 the data must be checked for accuracy and consistency
Selection of the ARI of a Design Storm requires consideration of:
1. the type of structure or land area affected by the flood
2. how catchment storage, either natural or manufactured, can delay flood peaks and
so influence design decisions
3. the consequences of failure the direct or indirect results on structures and
downstream areas if overtopping occurs
4. future development work in the catchment
5. the number of storms that need to be analysed to validate cost-benefit study
conclusions
6. special characteristics of the catchment that may affect the outflow hydrograph.
Typical examples of ARIs are 2 to 5 years for the pipe system in urban drainage. If the
downtown area of a city is part of the drainage system then a 20 year ARI may be chosen as
the level of performance required for that part. If a hospital or power station is to be protected
then the use of a 100 year ARI may be appropriate. Whereas flooding of a causeway on a road
in a rural area may be acceptable on a yearly basis, (that is a 1 year ARI), a bridge on a main
road may require a 50 year ARI.
In many cases the geography and the finance available may influence the choice of ARI. In
some areas building insurance is available only if the building being insured is above the
flood level set by an ARI that is specified by the insurer.
Local factors may have a bearing on the flood resulting from a storm. As will be seen in
Urban Drainage it is sometimes possible to get a larger flood from only part of the catchment
so that the duration of a design storm as well as its ARI is important. The duration is set by
the catchment response time. This will be discussed in later lessons.

Rainfall Temporal Patterns
Normally rainfall does not fall with uniform intensity.
The behaviour of runoff hydrograph will be directly affected by the temporal pattern of a
storm (Figure 5.2).
In design, the same temporal pattern is generally used over the entire catchment.
The degree of variability of intensities in the pattern affects the magnitude of the peak of the
hydrograph.
The hydrograph shape depends on the rainfall pattern.
Patterns are needed for design hydrograph estimation. It is necessary to use the correct
pattern to convert the Y-year rainfall to the Y-year flood hydrograph.

Figure 5.2 Rainfall temporal patterns, RMIT University, (2008).

In Hong Kong, the time distribution of the temporal pattern (or rainstorm profile) should be
taken as:
1. for the Rational Method - a uniformly distributed rainfall with an intensity
determined by the IDF relationship should be used.
2. for other methods and for storm durations equal to or shorter than 4 hours - a
symmetrically distributed rainfall is recommended with the following equation and
graphically presented in Figure 5.3.
For storm durations longer than 4 hours, the rainstorm profile can be derived from the IDF
and DDF (Table 1) relationship.
The temporal pattern (or storm profile) is calculated by using equation 5:
( )
( )
( )
( )
1
1
2 1
for 0.......(5)
2
where:
rate of rainfall ( )
duration of storm (minutes)
constants depending on return period
(see Table 3 of )
+
( +

=
+
)
c
a b c t
F t t
t b
F t mm hr
t
a
b
c
Stormwater Drainage Manual

Reference:
Stormwater Drainage Manual; Planning, Design and Management Drainage Services
Department, Hong Kong Government (2000).


Figure 5.3. Synthetic Rainstorm Profiles
Adapted from the Stormwater Drainage Manual, Planning, Design and Management Drainage Services Department, Hong Kong Government (2000).
Using Hydrological Data to Produce IFD Curves and Rainfall Patterns 43

Runoff from Storms
The ability to predict runoff volume flow rates from storms is one of the most important competencies that
engineers working in Water Resources Engineering needs. It is developed through Hydrological Studies.
To achieve this:
1. select the appropriate Average Recurrence Interval for the project
2. convert the point rainfall intensities to average catchment values using depth-area ratio method
3. construct Rainfall Temporal Patterns from the IDF rainfall
4. account for the losses that reduce the amount of rainfall to that which is runoff.
Selection of the ARI of a Design Storm requires consideration of:
1. the type of structure or land area that will be affected by the flood.
2. how catchment storage, either natural or man made, can delay flood peaks and so influence design
decisions.
3. the consequences of failure the direct or indirect results on structures and downstream areas if
overtopping occurs.
4. future development work in the catchment.
5. the number of storms that need to be analysed to validate cost-benefit study conclusions.
6. special characteristics of the catchment that may affect the outflow hydrograph.
Typical examples of ARIs are 2 to 5 years for the pipe system in urban drainage. If the downtown area of a
city is part of the drainage system then a 20 year ARI may be chosen as the level of performance required
for that part. If a hospital or power station is to be protected then the use of a 100 year ARI may be
appropriate. Whereas flooding of a causeway on a road in a rural area may be acceptable on a yearly basis,
(that is a 1 year ARI), a bridge on a main road may require a 50 year ARI.
In many cases the geography and the finance available may influence the choice of ARI. In some areas
building insurance is available only if the building being insured is above the flood level set by an ARI that
is specified by the insurer.
Local factors may have a bearing on the flood resulting from a storm. As will be seen in Urban Drainage it
is sometimes possible to get a larger flood from only part of the catchment so that the duration of a design
storm as well as its ARI is important. The duration is set by the catchment response time. This will be
discussed in later lessons.
Using Hydrological Data to Produce IFD Curves and Rainfall Patterns 44

Estimating Peak Flow Rates of Storm Runoff 45

Chapter 6: Estimating Peak Flow Rates of Storm
Runoff
There are many cases in water resources engineering where knowledge of the peak flow rate from storm
runoff gives sufficient information for the project to be designed. The Rational Method is the simplest way
of calculating this flow rate. Provided the information obtained is used on a statistical basis the results are
valid.
The aim of this session is to enable you to understand the Rational Method and the conditions under which
it can be used to estimate the peak flow runoff rates from storms.
Estimating Peak Flow Rates
The estimation of the Flood Magnitude from a storm can be accomplished by a number of methods, each of
which can be considered as producing an output, (the flood), from the input, (rainfall), when it is processed
by a model.

Figure 6.1 Estimating peak flow rates, copyright RMIT University, 2008
The simplest of these is the Rational Method. It is used where the peak flow rate from a catchment is
adequate for design purposes. This method, is the most widely used application in these situations. When
this is done in a probabilistic, rather than a deterministic, manner it is considered valid for small catchments
(up to 25 km
2
) and, under certain conditions, for medium ones (up to 1000 km
2
).
Estimates of these flow rates are employed in:
road works design of culverts, small to medium bridges and causeways
drainage projects sizing and slope of pipe systems and auxiliary works
farm and rural works farm dams and soil conservation measures.

Estimation of peak flow rates for small to medium-sized catchments
The Rational Method of calculating runoff from a storm was often used in a deterministic way but is now
considered to be more valid when employed on a statistical basis. In the deterministic procedure the time
of concentration, tc , is defined as the travel time for a particle of water to move from the most remote part
of the catchment to the outlet or the time for the whole catchment to start to contribute to the flow at the
outlet. This provides a convenient flood response time for the statistical basis (which is incorporated by
employing rainfall of a specified ARI and a runoff coefficient related to this ARI).
The formula is:
A I C F Q
Y t Y
c
=
where:
Q
Y
= Peak flow rate in m
3
/s with an ARI of Y years
C = Runoff coefficient for a storm
I
tc,Y
= Rainfall in mm/hr (storm duration t
c
in minutes and an ARI of Y years
A = Area in km
2

F = 0.278 (a factor used to convert the units used on the right of the equation to those of Q)

References:
Section 7.5.2, Stormwater Drainage Manual; Planning, Design and Management Drainage Services
Department, Hong Kong Government (2000).
Chin Section 5.4.2, pp. 417 - 421

The Rational Method
The assumptions made are that:
1. the rainfall is of uniform intensity over the whole catchment for the duration of the design storm
2. the duration of the rainfall is equal to the time of concentration for the catchment
3. the ARI of the peak discharge is the same as that of the rainfall intensity.

The value of Runoff coefficient C depends on the impermeability, slope and retention characteristics of the
ground surface.
It also depends on the characteristics and conditions of the soil, vegetation cover, the duration and intensity
of rainfall, and the antecedent moisture conditions.
In Hong Kong, a value of C = l.0 is commonly used in developed urban areas.
In less developed areas, the following C values (2-year to 10-year Return Periods) may be used:

Surface Characteristics Runoff coefficient, C
Asphalt
Concrete
Brick
0.70 0.95
0.80 0.95
0.70 0.85
Grassland (heavy soil)
Flat
Steep
Grassland (sandy soil)
Flat
Steep

0.13 0.25
0.25 0.35

0.05 0.15
0.15 0.20


For ARIs other than 10 years
Higher coefficients should be used for less frequent storms having higher return periods, and the runoff
coefficients can be reasonably increased by 10%, 20% and 25% for 20-, 50- and 100- year storms,
respectively.
The time of concentration for a natural catchment is commonly estimated using the Bransby Williams
formula. This formula is:
0.1 0.2
58
c
c
L
t
A S
=
(see section 7.4.2 in the Stormwater Drainage Manual).

where:
t
c
= time of concentration of a natural catchment (min)
A = catchment area in km
2

S = average slope (m per 100 m) measured along the line of natural flow
L = length of natural flow in km.

The time of concentration is also calculated using the Ragan and Duni equation:
( )
0.4
*
0.4 0.3
6.94 Ln
t
I S
=

where:
t = overland flow time (min)
L = flow length in m
n* = surface roughness or redance coefficient
I = rainfall intensity (mm/hr)
S = slope (m/m).


The coefficient n* is similar but not identical to Mannings n for open-channel flow. Typical values are given
in the following Table.

Surface type Roughness coefficient n*
Concrete or asphalt 0.010 0.013
Bare sand 0.010 0.016
Gravelled surface 0.012 0.030
Bare clay loam soil 0.012 0.033
Sparse vegetation 0.053 0.130
Short grass prairie 0.100 0.200
Lawn 0.170 0.480

Source: AR&R, Volume 1

Advantages of the Rational Method
1. It is simple to use.
2. Because of its widespread use there exists a lot of experience in its use. This is available to others
wanting to employ it for design.

Limitations of the Rational Method
1. It is only valid when used for small catchments of area < 25 km
2
unless a lot of recorded data is
available to derive statistical parameters for use in medium catchments.
2. Peak flow rates, not hydrographs are the only output.
3. No allowance is made for catchment storage effects.

In this simple model the input is the rainfall intensity, I, the catchment parameters of area, A, the runoff
coefficient, C, the time of concentration, t
c
and the mathematical process:
Error! Objects cannot be created from editing field codes..
The output is the peak flow rate, Q.


Rainfall Abstractions 51

Chapter 7: Rainfall Abstractions
The process of interception, depression storage, and infiltration are referred as rainfall abstractions or
losses. These are generally accounted for by estimating surface runoff resulting from a given rainfall event.
Runoff, one of the most important components of the hydrologic cycle, is determined by subtracting from
precipitation the abstractions that occur in the drainage basin.

Figure 7.1 Rainfall abstraction processes, copyright RMIT (Muhammed Bhuiyan)

A part of the incoming gross rainfall is intercepted by the canopy of vegetation and evaporates directly
back into the atmosphere (interception loss). The rest of the rainwater reaches the ground either by
dripping from the canopy and falling through gaps (throughfall). The interception loss from forests is much
higher than that from short vegetation. Depression storage is the ability of a particular area of land to retain
water in its pits and depressions, thus preventing it from flowing.
The most important abstraction affecting runoff is usually the portion of precipitation that is lost to
infiltration. Were it not for infiltration, streams would cease to flow soon after a rain, frequent floods would
devastate the river valleys, well would go dry, springs would stop, farm soil would erode, crops would not
grow, and droughts would be more frequent.
Infiltration is the process of water penetrating from the ground surface into the soil. Many factors influence
the infiltration rate, including the condition of the soil surface and its vegetative cover, the properties of the
soil, such as its porosity and hydraulic conductivity, and the current moisture content of the soil. Infiltration
is a very complex process that can be described approximately with mathematical equations.
The distribution of soil moisture within the soil profile during the downward movement of water is
illustrated in figure below.

Distribution of soil moisture () during the downward movement of water
Saturation zone near the surface
Transmission zone unsaturated flow that has fairly uniform moisture content
Capillary fringe in which moisture is more-or-less saturated but under surface tension (, -ve
pressure)
Wetting front shows the sharp discontinuity between dry and wet soils

Figure 7.2 Moisture zones during infiltration, copyright Chow et al. (1988)

Infiltration rate, f (mm/hr) at which water enters the soil at the surface. If water is ponded on the surface, the
infiltration occurs at the potential infiltration rate. If the rate of supply of water at the surface, for example
by rainfall, is less than the potential infiltration rate then the actual infiltration rate will be less than the
potential rate. Most infiltration equations describe the potential rate. Cumulative infiltration, F (mm) is the
accumulated depth of water infiltrated during a given time period and is equal to the integral of the
infiltration rate over that period.
=
t
d f t F
0
) ( ) (
where is a dummy variable of time in the integration. Conversely, the infiltration rate is the time
derivative of the cumulative infiltration.

Hortons Equation
Horton (1933, 1939) observed that infiltration begins at some rate
o
f and exponentially decreases until it
reaches a constant rate
c
f :
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )
0
0
1
kt
c c
c kt
c
f t f f f e
f f
F t f t e
k
= +
= +

where:
k is a decay constant having dimension (T
-1
).

Figure 7.3 Infiltration by Hortons equation, copyright Chow et al. (1988)
Phillips Equation
Phillip (1957, 1969) solved Richards equation under less restrictive conditions by assuming that the
hydraulic conductivity (K) and diffusivity (D) can vary with the moisture content ( ).
Kt St t F + =
2 / 1
) (
K St t f + =
2 / 1
2
1
) (
where S is a parameter called sorptivity, which is a function of the soil suction potential. As
, f(t) t tends to K. for a horizontal column of soil, soil suction is the only force drawing water into the
column, and the Phillips equation reduces to
2 / 1
) ( St t F = .

Green-Ampt Method

Figure 7.4 Variables in the Green-Ampt infiltration model, copyright Chow et al. (1988)

Green-Ampt developed a more approximate physical theory that has an exact analytical solution. As shown
in the figure above, the wetting front is a sharp boundary dividing soil of moisture content below from
saturated soil with moisture content above. Water is ponded to a small depth
o
h on the soil surface.
( )
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|

+ + =

o
o
h
t F
h Kt t F
) (
1 ln ) (
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+

= 1
) (
) (
t F
h
K t f
o

where:
= wetting front capillary pressure head (will have different values for different soils)
= volumetric water content.
For given K, t, ho, , and , a trial F value is substituted in the right hand side
1st good trial value is F = Kt, and a new value of F calculated on the left-hand side, which is substituted
as a trial value on the right-hand side, and so on, until the calculated values of F converge to a constant
The final F value is then substituted into the second equation for f .

Application of Green-Ampt model requires estimates of hydraulic conductivity K, porosity, and the
wetting front soil suction head . The variation with moisture content of the suction head and hydraulic
conductivity was studied by Books and Corey (1964). They found a logarithmic relationship between
and effective saturation. The effective saturation can be written as:
1 s 0
e

=
e
r
r
r
e
s

and
e e
s ) 1 ( =

Table 7.1: Green-Ampt infiltration parameters for various soil classes, copyright Chow et al. (1988)

Brakensiek, Engleman, and Rawls (1981) presented a method for determining the Green-Ampt parameters
using Brooks-Corey equation. The above table has been produced from a wide range of soil data to give
K
e
and , , , for different soil classes.

Ponding Time
So far we assumed that water is ponded to a small depth on the soil surface and so all the water the soil can
infiltrate is available at the surface. But during a rainfall, water will pond on the surface only if the rainfall
intensity i is greater than the infiltration capacity f of the soil. Ponding time
p
t is the elapsed time
between the time rainfall begins and the time water begins to pond on to the soil surface.
If rainfall begins on dry soil, the vertical moisture profile in the soil may appear as in figure below. Prior to
the ponding time (
p
t t < ), the rainfall intensity is less than the potential infiltration rate and the soil surface
is unsaturated. Ponding begins when the rainfall intensity exceeds the potential infiltration rate. At this
time (
p
t t = ), the soil surface is saturated. As rainfall continues (
p
t t > ), the saturated zone extends deeper
into the soil and overland flow occurs from the ponded water.

Figure 7.5: Soil moisture profiles before, during, and after ponding occurs, copyright Chow et al. (1988)

At ponding time
p p p
t i F F t = = , and f = i, so we can get ponding time from the above equation
(neglecting ho):
( )
p
K
t
i i K

=

We know:
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+

= 1
) (
) (
t F
h
K t f
o


Figure 7.6: Infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration for ponding under constant intensity rainfall, copyright Chow
et al. (1988)

Infiltration rate after ponding
To obtain the actual infiltration rate f(t) after ponding at time t (t > tp), we can have the following
cumulative infiltration equation F(t)
( ) ( )
( )
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+
+
+ + =
p o
o
o p p
F h
t F h
h t t K F t F

) (
ln ) (
The corresponding infiltration rate is given by:
|
|
.
|
\
|
+
= 1
) (
) (
t F
K t f


Evaporation and Evapotranspiration 59

Chapter 8: Evaporation and Evapotranspiration
The most important aspect of Hydrology from a Water Resources Engineering viewpoint is to obtain a
quantitative measure of the rainfall that becomes runoff from a storm. Thus it is necessary to evaluate the
losses that reduce the amount of rainfall runoff.
Two major components of these losses are evaporation and transpiration. The first is the change of moisture
from the liquid state to the vapour state, the second the process by which plants and trees take moisture
from the soil and release it to the atmosphere as vapour.
Sections 4.2- 4.4 in Chow discuss these processes in some detail and give formulae, which can be used to
evaluate the losses.
Evaporation depends on air temperature, relative humidity, wind, solar radiation and surface area. Solar
radiation is an important factor in evaporation. Thus it varies with latitude, season, time of day and sky
conditions as well. Evaporation increases with increase in air temperature and wind speed, and decreases
with increase in relative humidity.
There are number of indirect methods to calculate evaporation. Some of the important methods are:
energy balance method
aerodynamic method
combinations of above two methods - Penmans equation
pan evaporation.

Combined Aerodynamic and Energy Balance Evaporation Equation
a e
E E E
+
+
+
=
where:
a
E = ) (
a as
e e B = evaporation rate (m/s) using aerodynamic equation
as
e = saturated vapour pressure (Pa) corresponding to the ambient air temperature
a
e = ambient vapour pressure (Pa) of the air ( = RH
as
e )
2
2
2
2
ln
622 . 0
(
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
o
w
a
z
z
p
u k
B
= called vapour transfer coefficient

k = von Karman constant ( = 0.4)
o
z = roughness height (m) of the surface
2
u = wind velocity (m/s) at 2 m height
p = prevalent atmospheric pressure (Pa)
w
= water mass density (kg/m
3
)
a
= air mass density (kg/m
3
)
e
E =
w v
n
l
R
= evaporation rate (m/s) using energy balance equation

n
R = net radiation (W/m
2
)

v
l = (2.501 10
6

2370 T) = latent heat of vaporization (kJ/kg)
T = temperature in
o
C
=
( )
2
3 . 237
4098
T
e
as
+
= slope of the saturated vapour pressure (Pa/
o
C) vs temperature curve at air
temperature T
=
v
p
l
p c
622 . 0
psychrometric constant (Pa/
o
C)
p
c = specific heat of air at constant pressure, J/kg.K

Pan evaporation
Theory and experiments have shown that evaporation from a pan is considerably different to than from a
reservoir surface (lake surface), largely because of the difference in the water temperature of the two
surfaces. Pan evaporation depends on the condition of the surface around the pan. Pan coefficient varies on
a monthly basis.
Lake evaporation = Pan coefficient Pan evaporation
Transpiration
The process by which the plants extract water from the roots and evaporate through airspaces in plant
leaves. Transpiration depends on meteorological and climatic conditions, plant characteristics and soil
moisture.
Actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET)
It is difficult to estimate evaporation and transpiration separately. Thus both are combined together and
called actual evapotranspiration (AET). When plenty of water is available, soil type, crop type, root range
becomes minor importance in the determination of transpiration. The evaporation is from the saturated
soil. Then the combined evaporation and transpiration is called potential evapotranspiration (PET).
AET < PET

Reference-crop evapotranspiration (ET
o
)
Rate of ET from an area planted with a specific crop (grass or alfalfa), where water availability is not a
limiting factor. Comparisons of computed and observed values of ET found that combination method is the
best approach, only B need to be calibrated for local conditions. For example, Doorenbos and Pruitt
recommended eq like: B = 0.0027(1 + u/100), where, B is in mm/Pa.day, u = 24-hour wind run (km/day)
measured at 2 m height.
Physical measurements using evaporation pans give accurate values of this loss. For example, in some parts
of Australia the rate is as high as 2400 mm/year, more of which occurs in summer months than in winter.
Lake Eyre in central Australia fills on average twice a century to a depth of approximately 6 m. It has
usually dried out by evaporation in just over two years after filling. In the Melbourne region the rate is
around 1100 mm/year, an average of 3 mm/day but it can be as high as 12 mm on some days. These losses
can reduce the yield from reservoirs and dams. Local values must be taken into account when this yield is
being evaluated.


Soil-Plant-Water Relationships 63

Chapter 9: Soil-Plant-Water Relationships
Irrigation has played a strategic role in the continuous process of agricultural development. For a
favourable climate/weather and soil conditions, plants require optimum supply of water to produce
maximum yield. Water supply should meet both the total and peak crop water requirements. Crop water
requirements are nothing but the estimation of the consumptive use of the crops grown. To obtain the total
irrigation requirements, additional amounts of water are added to the estimate to allow for administrative,
conveyance, and application losses and to provide extra water to maintain the salt balance.

Consumptive use is related to several climatic, soil, and plant factors and is estimated in terms of a specific
crop, farm, or valley (altitude, latitude, topography, etc.).
Soil
There is a set of soil attributes that may be equated to sustained irrigation productivity. The set is
conditioned by the amount and quality of water available and the topography and drainage conditions.
The attributes include morphological (include: texture, structure, shape and sizes, consistence, thickness
and sequence of horizons, etc.), chemical, and physical characteristics of the soil. Selection of irrigable lands
further requires a need for laboratory measurements of many chemical and physical characteristics: particle
size distribution, bulk specific gravity, porosity, clay mineralogy and surface area, soil solution composition
and concentration, cation-exchange capacity, exchangeable cations, surface charge density, soil reaction,
gypsum, alkaline-earth carbonates, organic matters, etc.
Soil performance quality include fertility, productivity, erodibility, and drainability through identify
measures like infiltration rate, hydraulic conductivity, moisture characteristic curve, and moisture holding
capacity. Under special circumstances measurements are also done for hydraulic conductivity of
fragmented samples, settling volume, dispersion rates, air-water permeability ratio, capillary conductivity
and diffusivity, etc. Toxic ions such as boron, lithium, and selenium are measured where problems with
ions anticipated. The position of the water table, specific yield, and transmissivity of aquifer are observed in
selecting irrigable lands.
Soil profile is a vertical section through the soil mass. Significant changes in soil texture and structure with
depth are observed in most soils. Soil column in most cases is composed of a series of horizontal layers
(called soil horizons) of varying degrees of distinctness.
Soil-Plant-Water Relationships
The volume composition of the 3 main constituents of the soil system is: solids (minerals, chemicals and
organics), liquids (soil-moisture) and gases (soil-air). A typical silt loam soil contains about 50% solids, 30%
water and 20% air. Besides, soil usually contains many living organisms such as bacteria, fungi, algae,
protozoa, insects and small animals which directly or indirectly affect soil structure and plant growth.
Mineral particles, consists of rocks are the most stable composites, developed in situ by weathering or
deposited by wind or water flows. The components of the fine earth sand, silt and clay, are classified by
size limits by various organizations.


Fraction Particle diameter
US Dept of Agriculture (USDA) Int. Soil Sci Society (ISSS)
Gravel > 2 mm >2 mm
Very coarse sand 1 to 2 mm -
Coarse sand 0.5 to 1 mm 0.2 to 2 mm
Medium sand 0.25 to 0.5 mm -
Fine sand 0.1 to 0.25 mm 0.02 to 0.2 mm
Very fine sand 0.05 to 0.1 mm -
Silt 0.002 to 0.05 mm 0.002 to 0.02 mm
Clay <0.002 mm <0.002 mm
The relative proportion of sand, silt and clay determines the soil texture. Texture is designated by using the
names of the predominant size fractions. Silty clay describes a soil in which the clay characteristic is
outstanding and also contains a substantial quantity of silt. The word, loam indicates all three size fractions
occur in sizeable proportions.

Figure 9.1 USDA soil textural classification chart (there are 12 textural classes), copyright US Department of
Agriculture


Clay particles have larger surface areas, so can hold more water than sandy soil. There are 3 major types of
clay minerals: kaolinite, montmorillonite and illite. Micelles (unit crystal) of kaolinite consist of silica and
alumina platelets (in 1:1 ratio) show little swelling or shrinking with changes in hydration.
Montmorillonite and illite micelles are also composed of silica and alumina platelets (in 2:1 ratio).
Potassium ions occurring in illite micelles give strong chemical bonding to prevent separation and swelling.
Such bondings do not exist in montmorillonite micelles to give rise of swell and shrink with changes in
hydration. Such soils develop broad, deep cracks during prolonged droughts.
Clay micelles are negatively charged, chiefly by replacement of silicon and aluminium ions within the
crystal lattice. The intensity of the negative charge determines the cation exchange capacity (CEC) or the
ability to hold cations. The intensity of hydrogen ions (H
+
) the clay particles hold, relative to basic ions such
as calcium (Ca
++
), magnesium (Mg
++
), potassium (K
+
), and sodium (Na
+
), determine whether a soil is acidic
or alkaline.

Figure 9.2 Acidic and alkaline soils, copyright RMIT University (Muhammed Bhuiyan)

Loam soils are considered most favourable for plant growth because they hold more available water and
cations than sand and are better aerated and easier to work than clay.
The arrangement of individual soil particles with respect to each other into a pattern (structural unit) is
called soil structure. Soil structure may be classified into (i) simple structure (single grain or massive
structures), e.g., normally occur in sands and silts of low organic content, facilitates aeration and capillary
movement of moisture, and (ii) compound structure may be described according to the relative lengths of
their vertical and horizontal axes and by the contours of their edges, may be grouped into, cubic, columnar,
platy, angular, subangular, and granular like structures.
Acidic soil contains a high
proportion of H
+
ions
H
+
H
+
H
+
H
+
Mg
++
Ca
++
NH4
+
Negatively
charged clay
particle
Na
+
Mg
++
K
+
Ca
++
H
+
Na+
Ca++
NH4
+
Negatively
charged clay
particle
Na
+
Alkaline soil have most of the
exchange positions held by basic ions
such as Ca
++
, Mg
++
, Na
+
, and K
+

Soil structure has a pronounced effect on such properties as erodibility, porosity, hydraulic conductivity,
infiltration and water holding capacity. The quality of soil structure may be expressed in terms of porosity,
aggregation, cohesiveness or permeability for water or air. Porosity is of great importance, since the
chemical and biological processes occur in the pores. Large pores induce aeration and infiltration, medium
sized pores facilitate capillary conductivity, and small pores induce greater water holding capacity.
Aggregation should be stable to withstand rainfall impact and temporary submergence. If soil aggregates
are water stable, the soil is said to be in good tilth. Tilth is evaluated as good, fair, or poor, according to the
ease with which soil can be worked and the rate at which it takes in water. Dispersed clay represents the
most unfavourable soil structure. Cohesiveness of soils is related to its moisture content. Soil should be in
friable condition, but not too loose. A massive compact soil restricts aeration and root spread.
For optimum crop growth, soil structure should be such that the infiltration capacity is large, the
percolation capacity is medium and aeration is sufficient. Common methods of soil structure management
are proper land use, adoption of suitable tillage practices at optimum soil moisture content, subsoiling,
addition of organic matter, crop rotation, application of optimum levels of fertilizers, mulching, drainage,
controlled irrigation, soil conservation practices, protection from compaction of wet soils, and use of soil
conditioners.
Volume and mass relationships of soil constituents

To determine the bulk density of a soil,
an uncompacted soil sample (using core
sampler) of known volume is obtained.
The core sample is trimmed at both
ends and then dried in am oven at
105
o
C for about 24 hr and weighted. The
weight of the soil divided by the
volume of the soil core is the bulk
density.
Figure 9.3 Schematic diagram of the soil as a three-phase
system, copyright RMIT University (Muhammed Bhuiyan)


3
3
density of solids for quartz and feldspar 2.65 /
for organic matter 1.3 1.5 /
dry bulk density usually 1 1.8 /
s
s s
s
s
s
b b
t
M
gm cm
V
gm cm
M
gm cm
V

= = =
=
= = =
3
3

for fine textured soils 1.7 /
(problems with permeability)
total (wet) bulk den
b
t
t
t
gm cm
M
V
>
= =
( )
sity
porosity sandy soil 35 50%
clayey soil 40 60%
void ratio relations 1
100

p
t
p
b s
s
V
n n
V
n
V n
e
V

= = =
=
= = =
( ) 1
mass wetness (or soil moisture content)
volumetric wetness (or volumetric moisture content)
degree of saturation (range: 0 - 1.0)
s b
w
m
s
w
v
t
w
p
e
M
M
V
V
V
V

= +
= =
= =
=

The conversion from weight to volume units can be made by multiplying the % by weight times the bulk
density of the soil:
b m v
=
The % by volume of moisture content obtained by the above relation is numerically equal to cm of water
per meter depth of soil depth. For example, if the bulk density is 1.7 gm/cm
3
and the moisture content is
14% on dry weight basis, the moisture is 1.714= 23.8 cm/m depth of soil.
Two major classes of soil pores are recognised: capillary pores, and non-capillary or aeration pores. The
capillary pores contain the water after most of the free drainage in the soil is completed. Non-capillary or
large pores do not hold water tightly; it is the percentage of pore space filled with air after the soil has
drained to field capacity. Large non-capillary porosity of sandy soils results is better drainage and aeration,
but results into poorer water holding capacity than clay soils.

Soil consistency describes the characteristics of the soil at various moisture contents when influenced by the
physical forces of cohesion (similar molecules attraction) and adhesion (dissimilar molecules attraction).
Cohesion is brought by the attraction of the surface charges of the clay particles. Molecular attraction is
greatest when the soil is dry and it sharply decreases as water enters between particles, thus keeping them
apart. Adhesion is due to surface tension. Its effect on holding soil particles together depends on the
presence of both water and air. Surface tension decreases as the soil moisture increases.
Surface tension and capillarity
When dissimilar substances make contact at an interface, the inequalities of molecular attraction tend to
change the shape of the interface. Surface tension ( ) is a force pulling inward/outward at the surface of a
liquid, tending to make the surface area as small as possible. One of the most important phenomena of
surface tension in soil is capillarity. The height to which the liquid rises is determined by the surface tension
and the weight of the liquid column. The height of the water column, h can be obtained as:
r
h
cos 2
=
where - is the specific weight of water, r radius of the water column, - angle of contact between
surface tension and vertical wall of the column. Soil pores are rarely uniform. Once the soil is saturated
with water, and then the water is allowed to drain away, some water is held by the smaller capillaries, even
though the larger openings are freed of water.
Soil moisture tension
Soil moisture tension is a measure of the tenacity with which water is retained in the soil and shows the
force per unit area that must be exerted to remove water from a soil. Buckingham (1970) introduced the
concept of capillary potential to define the energy with which water is held by soil. The terms soil
moisture potential, soil moisture suction and soil moisture tension are often used synonymously to
cover the entire range of moisture. The pF function, analogous to the acidity-alkalinity scale pH, is defined
as the logarithm (base 10) of the numerical value of the negative pressure of the soil moisture expressed in
cm of water.
h p log F =
where h = soil moisture tension in cm of water.

Total soil water potential
Soil water potential defines the amount of energy status of the soil-water system. As the potential is a scalar
quantity, the total potential can be determined by taking the algebraic sum of component potentials
corresponding to the different force fields.
o m g t
+ + =
Gravitational potential (
g
) is the potential due to gravitational force and is dependent on the elevation
(relative to some arbitrary reference level).
Matric potential (
m
) it is the negative pressure potential which results from the capillary and adsorptive
forces emanating from the soil matrix.
Osmotic potential (
o
) it is potential due to the difference in solute concentration across a semi-permeable
membrane (such as plant root).
Effective rainfall
That portion of total precipitation that is available for uptake by plants.
Effective rainfall (or precipitation) is equal to the difference between total rainfall and actual
evapotranspiration. Effective rainfall can be calculated directly from the climatic parameters and the
useable ground reserves (RU). At ground level, water from effective rainfall is split into two fractions:
surface run-off and infiltration. As with total rainfall, effective rainfall is expressed in height (in mm).
Soil moisture characteristics
Soil moisture tension is not necessarily an indication of the moisture content of the soil or the amount of
water available for plant use. These are dependent on the texture, structure and other characteristics of the
soil and must be determined separately foe each soil. Generally sandy soils drain almost completely at low
tension, but fine-textured clays still hold a considerable amount of moisture even at such high tensions that
plant growing in the soil may wilt. Moisture characteristic curve (shown in figure below), which are plots of
moisture content versus moisture tension; show the amount of moisture a given soil holds at various
tensions.

Salt-affected Soil
Salts in soil water increase the force that must be exerted to extract water and thus affect the amount of
water available to plants. The increase in tension caused by salts is from osmotic pressure. If two solutions
differing in concentration are separated by a membrane (such as a plant root) impermeable to the dissolved
substance, water moves from the solution of lower concentration to the one of higher concentration. The
force with which water moves across such a membrane is called osmotic pressure (measured in bars, 1 bar
= 1 atmospheric pressure).
Plant growth is a function of the soil moisture stress which is the sum of the soil moisture tension and
osmotic pressure of soil solution. In many irrigated soils, the soil solution contains an appreciable amount
of salts, which in turn develops osmotic pressure to retard the uptake of water by plants. Plants growing in
a soil in which the soil moisture tension is, say, 1 bar apparently can extract enough moisture for good
growth. But if the osmotic pressure of the soil solution is say, 10 bar, the total stress is 11 bar and the plants
cannot extract enough water for good growth. Thus for successful crop production in soils having
appreciable salts, the osmotic pressure of the soil solution must be maintained as low as possible by
controlled leaching.

Figure 9.4 Typical moisture characteristics curves, copyright: Michael, 1978
The considerations involved are the drainability of the substrata, quality of water, ability of soil to transmit
the needed leaching requirement, exchangeable sodium, soluble salt levels, cropping patterns, and
management systems for a prevailing climatic setting. Salt problem arises in two ways. First, salt was
present from the beginning, and second, initially salt was normal but may accumulate with excess
irrigation.

Evaporation tends to concentrate
soluble substances at the soil
surface and leaching tends to
carry them down into the soil
profile. The development of a salt
leaching curve through simple
field tests is at present a very
effective and practical procedure
for evaluating reclamation
possibilities
Figure 9.5 Depth of water per unit depth of soil required to leach saline soil,
copyright RMIT University (Muhammed Bhuiyan)

Soil Moisture Constants
Soil moisture is always being subjected to pressure gradients and vapour pressure differences that cause it
to move. It has been found experimentally that certain moisture contents described below are of particular
significance in agriculture and these are often called soil moisture constants.
Saturation capacity when all the pores of the soil are filled with water, the soil is said to be under saturation
capacity or maximum water holding capacity. The tension of water at saturation capacity is almost zero and
it is equal to free water surface.
Field capacity (FC) is the moisture content after drainage of gravitational water has become very slow and
the moisture content has become relatively stable. This situation usually exists 1 to 3 days after the soil has
been thoroughly wetted by rain or irrigation. Field capacity is the upper limit of available moisture range in
soil moisture and plant relations. Generally vary in the range of 0.1 to 0.3 bar suction.
Moisture equivalent is defined as the amount of water retained by a sample of initially saturated after being
subjected to centrifugal force of 1000 times that of gravity for a definite period of time, usually half an hour.
The moisture remaining in the sample when expressed as moisture percentage on oven dry basis, gives the
value of the moisture equivalent.
Wilting percentage (WP) is the soil moisture content at which plants can no longer obtain enough moisture
to meet transpiration requirements and remain wilted unless water is added to the soil. At the wilting point
the films of water around the soil particles are held so tightly that roots in contact cannot remove water at a
sufficient rate to prevent wilting of the plant leaves. It is a soil characteristic, so all plants will wilt at nearly
the same soil moisture content. 15 bars (suction) is the pressure commonly used for this point. The
moisture content at which the wilting is complete and the plants die is called the ultimate wilting. Soil
moisture may be as high as 60 bars suction.

Available water soil moisture between field capacity and wilting point is referred to as readily available
moisture. It is the moisture available for plant use. In general, fine-textured soils have a wide range of
available water than coarse-textured soils. The table below presents the range of available water holding
capacities of different of different soil textural groups. For irrigation system design, the total available water
is calculated for a soil depth based on the root system of a mature plant of the crop to be grown.
Soil type % moisture, based on dry weight of soil Depth of available water per unit of soil
Field capacity Wilting percentage cm per meter depth of soil
Fine sand 3 5 1 3 2 4
Sandy loam 5 15 3 8 4 11
Silt loam 12 18 6 10 6 13
Clay loam 15 30 7 16 10 18
Clay 25 40 12 - 20 16 30

Figure 9.6 Kinds of water in the soil and difference in available moisture content between a sandy and a silt loam soil,
copyright: Michael (1978)


Measurement of Soil Moisture
Gravimetric method
In the gravimetric method measurements of soil moisture are made on soil samples of known weight or
volume. Soil sample of known volume is collected with an auger, then weighed and dried in an oven at
105
o
C for about 24 hours, until all the moisture is driven off. After removing from the oven, the sample is
weighed again to give the difference of weight. This difference in weight is the amount of moisture in the
soil. This method is very accurate, but is used mainly for experimental purposes.
Example: Undisturbed soil sample was collected from a field two days after irrigation when the soil
moisture was near field capacity. The inside dimensions of the core sampler were 7.5 cm diameter and 15
cm deep. Weight of the core sampling cylinder with moist soil was 2.76 kg and the weight with oven dry
soil was 2.61 kg. The weight of the core sampling cylinder was 1.56 kg. Determine the water depth in cm/m
depth of soil.
Solution weight of moist soil = 2.76 - 1.56 = 1.2 kg
Weight of oven dry soil = 2.61 1.56 = 1.05 kg
So, moisture content = % 28 . 14 100
05 . 1
05 . 1 2 . 1
=

Volume of core sampler =
3
2 2
cm 7 . 662
4
15 5 . 7
4
=

=

h
d

Bulk specific weight =
3
3
gm//cm 58 . 1
7 . 662
1000 05 . 1
cm soil, of vol
gm soil, dry of wt
=
=
Bulk specific weight can be equal to apparent specific gravity numerically. So the moisture content per
linear depth = apparent sp gr moisture content = 1.58 14.28 = 22.56 cm/m depth of soil
Tensiometer
Tensiometer provides a direct measurement of the suction pressure of the unsaturated soil. Tensiometer
consists of a porous ceramic cup fitted at the end of a transparent tube. Once the transparent tube filled
with water and connected to a manometer or vacuum gage, reads the negative pressure arise from the
formation of vacuum from the flow of water out through the ceramic cup. Ceramic cup when initially
placed in soil, water contained in the tensiometer is at atmospheric pressure. Soil water, being generally at
sub- atmospheric pressure, exercises a suction to draw a certain amount of water from the tensiometer, thus
causing a drop in its pressure. Tensiometers are generally limited to matric suction values of below 1 bar.

Net Irrigation Requirement (NIR)
Net irrigation requirement is the depth of irrigation water, exclusive of precipitation, carry-over soil
moisture or groundwater contribution or other gains in soil moisture, that is required consumptively for
crop production. It is the amount of irrigation water required to bring the soil moisture level in the effective
root zone to field capacity. Thus it is the difference between field capacity and the soil moisture content in
the root zone before starting irrigation. Net irrigation requirement is obtained by relationship given below:
( )
i i b
n
i
b fc
D
M M
d
i i

100
1

=
where:
d = net amount of water to be applied during an irrigation, cm
i
fc
M = field capacity moisture content in the ith layer of the soil, %
i
b
M = moisture content before irrigation in the ith layer of the soil, %
i
b
= bulk density of the soil in the ith layer, gm/cm
3

i
D = depth of the ith soil layer within the root zone, cm
n=number of soil layer in the root zone
Gross Irrigation Requirement (GIR)
The total amount of water applied through irrigation is termed as gross irrigation requirement. It is the NIR
plus losses in water application and other losses. GIR can be determined for a field, for a farm, for an outlet
command area or for an irrigation project, depending on the need, by considering the appropriate losses at
various stages of the crop.
f
NIR
GIR
=
where:
f
= field efficiency of the system.
Unavoidably losses are caused through seepage and leaks in the conveyance system, non-uniformity of
distribution system, percolation below crop root zone, waste due to surface runoff at the end of borders and
furrows, etc. in case of sprinkler irrigation additional losses may be caused by evaporation from the spray.
Irrigation frequency refers to number of days between irrigations during periods without rainfall. It
depends on the consumptive use rate of the crop and on the amount of available moisture in the crop root
zone. Its a function of crop, soil and climate. Irrigation should start when about 50% of the available
moisture has been used from the root zone.


Irrigation efficiency
Irrigation efficiency indicates how efficiently the available water supply is being used on different methods
of evaluation.
Water conveyance efficiency measure the efficiency of water conveyance systems associated with the canal
network, water courses and field channels. Water conveyance efficiency (%) can be expressed as
100 =
d
f
c
W
W
E
where:
f
W = water delivered to the irrigated plot (at the field supply channel)
d
W = water diverted from the source
Water application efficiency after the water reaches the field supply channel, it is important to apply the
water as efficiently as possible. Water application efficiency (%) can be expressed as
100 =
f
s
a
W
W
E
where:
f
W = water delivered to the irrigated plot (at the field supply channel)
s
W = water stored in the root zone of the plant
Water application efficiency below 100% is due to seepage losses from the field distribution channels and
deep percolation below the crop root zone. Sometimes may be due to runoff losses at the tail end.
Application efficiency in general decreases with the increase of irrigation supply.
Water storage efficiency it is stated that small irrigations may lead to high water application efficiency, yet
the irrigation practice may be poor. Water storage efficiency relates how completely the water needed prior
to irrigation has been stored in the root zone during irrigation. It is defined as
100 =
n
s
s
W
W
E
where:
n
W = water needed in the root zone prior to irrigation
s
W = water stored in the root zone of the plant
When salt problem exists, the water storage efficiency should be kept high to maintain a favourable salt
balance.

Water distribution efficiency not only the application of the right amount of water to the field but also its
uniform distribution over the field is important. Permissible lengths of irrigation runs are controlled to a
large extent by the uniformity of water distribution which is possible for a given soil and irrigation
management practice. Water distribution efficiency indicates the extent to which water is uniformly
distributed along the run. It is defined as
100 1 |
.
|
\
|
=
d
y
E
d

where d = average depth of water stored along the run during the irrigation
y = average numerical deviation from d .
Water use efficiency water utilization by the crop is generally described in terms of water use efficiency
(kg/ha.cm).it can be defined in the following ways:
Crop water use efficiency =
ET
Y
, where Y is the crop yield, ET is the water depleted by the crop in the
process of evapotranspiration
Field water use efficiency =
WR
Y
, where WR is the total amount of water used in the field

Rainfall-runoff Process Models 77

Chapter 10: Rainfall-runoff Process Models
Rainfall-runoff Process Models
Today, a large number of rainfall runoff models have been developed, and most of them have
been found adequate by their developers. Depending upon the user, hydrological process
models may represent water yield (engineers and water managers), or water balance (vegetation
managers and ecologists). A classification of models according to some criteria is useful for
providing an overview of the large variety of models. As the user is mainly interested in the time,
data requirements, the relationship between the complexity of the model and the accuracy of the
simulation, the following classification seems reasonable:
Simple models: unit hydrograph, runoff coefficient, linear regression, etc.
Mathematical models: models having a simple structure, but parameter estimation is
difficult.
Conceptual models: Stanford (Crawford and Linsley, 1966), Sacramento (Burnash, 1973), etc.
Physically-based models: Models based on the solutions of different equations for
evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff. Physically-based models are best suited to
describe the runoff process. It is possible to compute infiltration, surface runoff and
channel flow at any particular point in a catchment with the appropriate different
equation. However, it is difficult to calibrate those models to use for practical purposes, as
necessary parameters cannot be evaluated in the required spatial and temporal resolution.
AR&R, Book V, Section 3.4 through to 3.6 (1998) reports popular rainfall runoff models until 1998.
The Boughton model (Boughton, 1966) , AWMB water balance model and the SIMHYD model (
Chiew, 2002) are discussed in the Chapter.
Water yield models
Most of the hydrologic modelling in recent years has been directed towards predicting surface
runoff and streamflow. Some of the hydrological models produce predictions of streamflow on
an hourly basis; others produce longer-term averages. Many of them were developed to predict
storm hydrographs for flood-warning purposes. Others predict total water yield for managing
water supply. This general class of hydrological models is of interest and use to engineers and
administrators charged with the responsibility of managing water supplies and protecting the
public from floods and their consequences.
Thus the goal of the modeller largely determines the type of model and what the modeller
considers as input and output. The engineering hydrologist considers streamflow as a major
output, with precipitation as an input. Evapotranspiration is then a more or less unavoidable loss
to the system. On the other hand, the ecologist may emphasize some aspect of the functioning of
an ecosystem with runoff as an incidental loss to the system.


Hydrological Model Calibration and Simulation
The purpose of model calibration is to estimate the most suitable set of model parameters for the
gauged catchment so that the hydrological model closely simulates the hydrological processes of
the catchment. Usually, model parameter values were adjusted upward or downward manually
between each model run to find the best set of parameter values. A sensitivity analysis can be
performed to identify which of the parameters had the most influence on runoff simulation.
Model parameters identified by the sensitivity analysis are then manually adjusted to adequately
simulate the shape of storm hydrographs and base-flow recession curves. There are auto
calibration algorithms in use too. However, special care should be taken using those to find the
best solution, as the optimum simulated model parameters may defer from the expected
outcomes.
Another set of hydrologic simulations are carried out with the calibrated parameters for
verification purpose. If there is a reasonable match between observed and simulated runoff
values, the parameter set can be used for further hydrological simulations.

Figure 10.1: Schematic diagram hydrological modeling in engineering practice, copyright RMIT
University, 2008


Process Models
Examples of Process Models are:
(Please note that unless the full reference is given all references below are to those quoted in
AR&R 1998, book V, Section 3)
Stanford Watershed Model (Reference: Crawford , N.H., and Linsley, R.K. (1966), Digital
Simulation in Hydrology: Stanford Watershed Model IV, Technical Report 39, Dept. of
Civil Engineering, Stanford University, California.)
Boughton Model (described below)
SFB Model
SIMHYD (described below)
Sacramento Model (Burnash et al 1973)
RORB (discussed previously).
The first five above are all examples of continuous process models. RORB is an example of an
event process model.
The required input data for the mathematical simulations varies for the different models. Some
cater for the spatial variability of parameters by subdividing the catchment into a number of
smaller sub-catchments. Others use a lumped parameter approach where the properties are
averaged over the catchment. The shorter the internal time period of the model the more accurate
the output will be. This may be limited by the extra computing capacity that will be required.

The Boughton Model
Reference: Boughton, W.C., 1966. A mathematical model for relating runoff to rainfall with daily
data. Civil Eng. Trans. Inst. Engs. Aust. CE8 (1), 8393. Boughton, W.C.,
This model was introduced in 1966 by Boughton (Boughton, 1966) and subsequently modified by
McMahon and Mein (1973) to incorporate baseflow into the simulation. The modified model,
shown in the flow diagram below, simulates daily surface runoff from daily rainfall data and
potential evapotranspiration data. It contains 10 parameters that need to be optimized before the
model is calibrated.

Figure 10.2: Schematic diagram of the modified Boughton Model, copyright RMIT University, 2008
The arrows show the movement of moisture from one store or region to another. Note that the
arrows above a store, Overflow, Surface Runoff and Spill, only operate when the store below
them is full.

Each day three hydrological processes can occur in the model: wetting, drying and drainage. The
simulation process is described in the following set of steps.
1. Once rainfall and overflow fill the first three moisture storages on a day, surface runoff
occurs.
2. Next evapotranspiration occurs from the interception, upper and lower moisture stores at
a rate that depends on both the potential evaporation rate and the degree of fullness of
the stores.
3. The movement of moisture from the drainage store into the subsoil continues at the daily
infiltration rate throughout the storm.
4. The evaporation rate from the interception store takes place at the potential rate until this
store is empty. No evaporation loss occurs from either the upper soil zone store or the
lower soil zone store until the interception store is empty.
5. When both these zone stores are full, the evapotranspiration rates from the upper and
lower soil zones are:
AET(us) = PCEN PET
AET(ss) = (1 - PCEN) PET
where AET(us) is the evapotranspiration loss from the upper soil zone, and
AET(ss) is this loss from the lower soil zone, PET is the prevailing
evapotranspiration rate, PCEN is the percentage of the evapotranspiration loss
from the upper zone expressed as a fraction of the PET. When either or both of
these moisture zones are at less than field capacity, FC, the losses are calculated
using the relationship illustrated in this figure.

Figure 10.3 Schematic diagram of actual evapotranspiration calculations, copyright RMIT University
2008 (Note: AET is the actual evapotranspiration rate)

The graph on the right models the potential evapotranspiration rates that depend on humidity,
wind speed and temperature and have a maximum value, P, on any given day. If the soil
moisture content is s, then for the case shown, the AET is r and the rate is set by the moisture
content of the soil. If the s intercept was above P, then the PET would be the actual rate.

Boughton employed a Horton type infiltration equation to model the infiltration from the
drainage store to the lower soil store. Thus the daily infiltration rate, F, is derived from the
current moisture level (ss) in the lower store using:
( )
KAA ss
F FC FO FC e

= +
where:
FO = daily infiltration rate when the lower soil store moisture level is zero
FC = daily infiltration rate when the lower soil store moisture is saturated
KAA is an empirical constant.
The volume of surface runoff, Q, is calculated by:
tanh Q P F =
where:
P is the excess rain after the first three stores have been filled.
McMahon and Mein (1973) modified the Boughton (1966) model to account for baseflow as
shown in the schematic diagram.
if ss < SDRMX, baseflow = K2 ss
if SDRMX < ss < SSMAX, baseflow = K2 (SDRMX) + K1 (ss - SDRMX)
if ss > SSMAX, baseflow = Spill + K2 (SDRMX) + K1 (SSMAX - SDRMX)
where ss is the soil moisture level of the lower soil store, SDRMX and SSMAX are the maximum
capacities of the lower soil store sections, and K1 and K2 are the baseflow recession constants for
the lower soil store sections determined from the streamflow data.

The SIMHYD Model
Reference: Chiew, F.H.S., Peel, M.C. and Western, A.W. (2002), Application and testing of the
simple rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD, In: Mathematical Models of Small Watershed Hydrology
and Applications (Editors: V.P. Singh and D.K. Frevert), Water Resources Publication,
The SIMHYD model is a simple conceptual daily rainfall-runoff model and has been widely used
and tested in Australia (Chiew et al., 2002; Peel et al., 2002). There have also been several (and
ongoing) studies that attempt to relate the parameter values in
SIMHYD to catchment physical and climate characteristics, offering a possibility for reliable
parameterisation of SIMHYD for the Australia-wide modelling.
A schematic diagram of this model is shown below. Like the Boughton model it operates on a
daily basis with daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as input. There are seven
parameters to be calibrated in the model. In SIMHYD, daily rainfall first fills the interception
store, which is emptied each day by evaporation. The excess rainfall is then subjected to an
infiltration function that determines infiltration capacity. The excess rainfall that exceeds the
infiltration capacity becomes infiltration excess runoff. Rainfall that infiltrates is subject to a soil
moisture function that diverts the water to the stream (interflow and saturation excess runoff),
groundwater store (recharge) and soil moisture store. Interflow is first estimated as a linear
function of the soil wetness. Groundwater recharge is then estimated, also as a linear function of
the soil wetness. The remaining water flows into the soil moisture store.

Figure 10.4: Schematic diagram of SIMHYD rainfall-runoff process model, copyright RMIT University,
2008

The AWBM model (Boughton 2002)
Reference: Boughton, W.C., 2004. The Australian water balance model. Environmental Modelling
& Software 19, 943 -956.
Boughton, W.C., 1995. An Australian water balance model for semiarid watersheds. J. Soil Water
Conser. 50 (5), 454457.
The AWMB catchment water balance model (Boughton, 2004) is a catchment water balance
model which relates total runoff to rainfall and potential evapotranspiration with either daily or
hourly data and calculates losses from rainfall for flood hydrograph modelling. The model
calculates surface runoff and baseflow components of streamflow at different time steps.
The model users three surface stores to simulate partial areas of runoff. The water balance of each
surface store is calculated independently of the others (see Figure 6.10). The model calculates the
moisture balance of each partial area at either daily or hourly time steps. At each time step
rainfall is added to each of the three surface moisture stores and evapotranspiration is subtracted
from each store.

Figure 10.5 Structure of the AWBM Model, copyright RMIT University 2008

The water balance equation is:
Storen = storen + rain + evap (n = 1 to n = 3)
The AWBM generates runoff by saturation excess from three surface stores that allow for partial
area runoff. The amount of runoff is determined wholly by the three surface stores and their
partial areas. The surface storage parameters are the three capacities (C) and their partial areas
(A). If the value of moisture in the store becomes negative, it is reset to zero. If the value of
moisture in the store exceeds the capacity of the store, the moisture in excess of capacity becomes
runoff and the store is reset to capacity. When runoff occurs from any store part of the runoff
becomes recharge of the baseflow store if the is a baseflow in the streamflow.
There are two baseflow parameters, the baseflow index (BFI) that determines how much of the
runoff is baseflow, and the baseflow recession constant (Kb) of the time step being used (daily or
hourly) that determines how fast the water is discharged from the baseflow store. The faction of
the runoff used to recharge the baseflow store is BFI runoff. The reminder of the runoff; i.e. (1.0
BFI) runoff is the surface runoff. The baseflow store is depleted at the rate of (1.0 - Kb) BS
where BS is the current moisture (water) in the baseflow store. The surface store acts in the same
way as the baseflow store. A surface recession constant (Ks) determines the discharge from the
surface runoff store. Discharge from the surface runoff store (1.0 - Ks) SS where SS is the
amount of water in the surface runoff store. The surface runoff can be routed through a store if
required to simulate the delay of surface runoff reaching a medium to large size catchments.

Climate Change 87

Chapter 11: Climate Change
Climate generally summarizes the average, range and variability of state of the atmosphere for a
given time scale (hour, day, month, season, year, decade and so forth) and generally for a
specified geographical region. Climate can also be defined as the average weather (temperature,
rainfall, relative humidity etc.) over a period of several years. The climate of a location is
affected by its latitude, terrain, persistent ice or snow cover, as well as nearby oceans and their
currents.
Global Warming and Climate Change
Climate change is long-term significant change in the average weather that a given region
experiences. Average weather may include average temperature and precipitation. It involves
changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over durations ranging from
decades to thousands of years.
Air naturally contains greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2 O, CFCc, Ozone) which trap heat in the
atmosphere and keep the Earth warm and suitable for life. This is called the natural greenhouse
effect. In the last 200 years, mankind has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. This is trapping more heat, which may
be causing a change in the Earth's climate. Since the beginning of the 20
th
century the Earth has
warmed up by over 0.5C and the ten warmest years over the past 140 years have occurred since
1990. Global warming, as it is known, is predicted to continue in the 21
st
century unless we take
action to reduce air pollution.
Modeling Approaches to Predict Future Climate
Since the time of the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations
in the atmosphere have increased as a result of human activities such as agriculture, deforestation
and the use of fossil fuels. Future global emissions will depend on population growth, energy
sources and regional and global economic growth.
To develop views idea of what the future climate might look like, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed various future climate scenarios based on emission
levels and future greenhouse gas concentrations. It is important here to understand that a
scenario, much like a model projection, is not a prediction. A scenario is the accumulation of the
various factors that are likely to exist in a particular future timeframe and based on past and
forecasted future trends. Accordingly, it is more a probabilistic estimation which can change
based on developments such as scientific knowledge, social attitudes and economic development
etc. Scenario development was therefore based on likely future emissions of green house gasses
(GHGs), since this is the principal cause of global warming and climate change.
Climate Change 88

In 1992, the IPCC made a series of projections up to the year 2100 of emissions of the principal
GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) and aerosols that would most likely occur if
no measures were taken to curb the emission of GHGs. These projections provided an important
baseline for thinking about climate change, and are based essentially on carbon dioxide
emissions. These future greenhouse gas concentrations are input to General Circulation models
(GCM) to provide estimates of the future climate. From these model estimates, the IPCC projects
a globally averaged warming of 1.4
o
C to 5.8C by 2100, relative to 1990. Over the past century the
Earth has warmed 0.6
o
C 0.2C.
During this century, climate change is expected to have widespread impacts on the terrestrial
hydrological cycle, affecting water supply in many parts of the world. One way of assessing the
likely impacts of climate change on water resources is to apply climate change scenarios to
rainfall-runoff models to estimate runoff.
Most catchment-scale hydrological models have been developed to simulate water resources
under current climate. Such models are adapted to simulate future water availability under
climate change either by perturbing an historical time series by climate change factors (e.g.
changing historical rainfall) downscaling data from a global climate model (GCM) and then
feeding the meteorological information to a hydrological model to predict water runoff. However
the climate uncertainties feeding into rainfall-runoff models are far larger than the hydrological
uncertainties within the models themselves and the interpretation of results should consider
these factors when drawing conclusions.
Arnell (2003) has produced a daily global water balance model with a 0.5
0
0.5
0
spatial resolution
and then running it under a range of emission scenarios through six GCMs to determine climate
change years 2020, 2050 and 2080, which stands as the most comprehensive exploration of
different climate scenarios at the global scale to date.
Sea Level Rise
Associated with global warming will be a rise in sea level. The IPCC estimates a rise in sea level
of between 0.09m and 0.88m by 2100 relative to 1990, or 0.8mm to 8.0mm per year. The largest
source of sea-level rise is due to the expansion of the oceans as they warm and melt the polar
caps. Contributions can also be expected from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Other factors
such as the increased storage of water in dams due to increase in rainfall in some regions of
Australia or increased snowfall over the Antarctica will slightly offset some sea-level rise.
Climate Change 89

Climate Change in Australia
Australia is one of the many global regions experiencing significant climate change as a result of
global emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. According to CSIRO's latest climate
change estimates, Australia will become hotter and drier in coming decades. Warmer conditions
will produce more extremely hot days and fewer cold days. CSIRO scientists estimate that over
most of the continent, average temperatures will be 0.4 to two degrees C greater in 2030 than
1990. By 2070, average temperatures are likely to increase one to six degrees C.
CSIRO climate projections indicate that the warming wont be the same everywhere, with slightly
less warming in some coastal areas and Tasmania, and slightly more warming in the north-west.
South-western Australia can expect decreases in rainfall, as can parts of south-eastern Australia
and Queensland. Wetter conditions are possible in northern and eastern Australia in summer and
inland Australia in autumn.
In areas that experience little change or an increase in average rainfall, more frequent or intense
rainfall events. Conversely, more dry spells are likely in regions where average rainfall decreases.
Evaporation is expected to increase over most of the country. When combined with expected
changes in rainfall, there will be a clear decrease in available moisture across the country, and
thus water resources to sustain river health and consumptive use.
For details, see:
CSIRO
5

CSIRO, Future Climate Change in Australia
6

Predicted rainfall change in Australia
Australian regional rainfall could increase or decrease in future depending on the Geographic
location. Annual average rainfall changes tend towards decreases in the south-west (20% to +5%
in 2030 and 60% to +10% by 2070). Decreases are most pronounced in winter and spring. Some
eastern coastal areas may become wetter in summer (5% to +10% by 2030 and 10% to +35% by
2070).
Most models simulate an increase in extreme daily rainfall leading to more frequent heavy
rainfall events. This can occur even where average rainfall decreases slightly. Reductions in
extreme rainfall occur where average rainfall declines significantly.
Increases in extreme daily rainfall are likely to be associated with increased flooding and an
increased risk of landslides in some areas. It is important that the items of data collected are
independent of each other. Large floods often occur close to one another and can even overlap, in
such cases they are not independent events.

5
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6
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Climate Change 90

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CIVE1146 2012 Ebook (v4)

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School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering

(see section 7.4.2 in the Stormwater Drainage Manual).

= called vapour transfer coefficient

= evaporation rate (m/s) using energy balance equation

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