Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Diego J. Gonzalez Cruz, PE Senior Associate Global Business Consultants (GBC) and Consultant for VenEconomy Summary This paper offers an analysis of the natural gas situation in Latin America, from Mexico to Argentina, including countries of the Caribbean; analyzes the attitude of potential buyers of this energy source and the possibilities of each country receiving natural gas from Venezuela based on its reserves and production, highlighting the most outstanding projects being undertaken in some of those countries; makes recommendations in the area of energy, with emphasis on natural gas; and, lastly, presents an epilog describing Venezuelas role in an integration process in Latin America.
Introduction
The idea of integration in Latin America is a paradigm that started with the Liberator Simn Bolvar in 1824, when he called the Amphictyonic Congress, which was to be held in Panama in 1826. The Congress had a 10-item agenda. The fourth item was going to deal with matters relating to Entering into trade and shipping treaties among allies and the sixth with establishing fixed principles of international law; no more and no less than trade treaties (bringing to mind concepts such as union, free trade zones, customs agreements, and common market) and treaties on international law (regulatory frameworks). The political success attributed to the Congress is that it served as inspiration, 84 years later, for the creation of the Pan-American Union (1910) and Day of the Americas (Columbus Day) (1930). These events, in turn, served as the basis for creating the Organization of American States (OAS) in 1948. In time, political integration policies emerged, which later extended to trade and, more specifically, to energy, first to the electricity sector and then to oil and gas. Subsequently, this gave rise to organizations such as the Latin American Integration Association (ALADI), the Latin American Association of Reciprocal Oil Assistance (ARPEL), and the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE). Attempts were made to relaunch the latter at the Hemispheric Meeting of Energy Ministers held in Miami, Florida, in 1994 and in Caracas, Venezuela in 1998. Other more recent associations such as the Andean Community of Nations (CAN), Group of Three (G-3), Central American Common Market (CACM), Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), the Informal Group of Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Exporting Countries (GIPLACEP), the 1
San Jos Agreement, Petroamrica, Petroandina, PetroCaribe, and PetroSur will have be considered for any integration proposal. An issue that will have to be discussed is the possible order or sequence for undertaking an integrating process in natural gas and in the area of energy in general with Central America, with the Caribbean, with the South, and -why not? - including the United States as an element to be considered in this integrating process, bearing in mind its economic development, energy requirements, and status as a privileged market for Venezuela, Trinidad & Tobago, Bolivia, and even Peru.
Regional analysis
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that the regions (Figure 1) demand will account for at least 5.5% of world energy requirements by the year 2030. With the exception of Bolivia, Brazil, Trinidad & Tobago, and Venezuela, all the other countries will have large energy deficits in the medium and long terms, particularly the Central American countries. There is a fact of life when it comes to the supply of energy resources in the region over the medium and long terms. Sources of energy that definitely should be considered are those derived from oil (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, Orimulsion) and natural gas (methane, LPG). In order to evaluate supplier countries, it is necessary to analyze their energy matrixes, hydrocarbon reserves, and energy resources in general. In this case, we would be talking of Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, Trinidad & Tobago, and Peru. The use of alternative energy resources, and in particular natural gas, in each country and in the hemisphere as a whole, regardless of technical, economic, and geopolitical considerations, will be influenced by the factors that have intervened in the formation of the structure of the energy matrix of the country we wish to analyze. It falls to natural gas to be the replacement for the majority of other energy sources for economic (prices) and environmental reasons, replacing first firewood and bagasse (Figure2, 3 & 4), then coal, and thirdly, oil derivatives. The problem is how to get natural gas to places where replaceable resources are presently consumed.
obtaining their supplies of liquefied natural gas, by sea, from African countries or from Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia or even Trinidad & Tobago (Figure 5).
Mexico
Mexico energy matrix depends on crude oil and natural gas (Figure 7). The country is in a difficult situation as regards natural gas reserves. It only has 16.8 trillion cubic feet (480 billion cubic meters - bcm). Average production in 2009 was 5.6 billion cubic feet a day (bcfd). Pemex has 3,143 nonassociated gas producer wells. In December 2009, Mexico imported an average of 503 million cfd from and exported 97 million cfd to the United States. The number of residential subscribers is nearly 2 million and is growing at an average of 10.41% a year. Mexico has 39,417 km of gas pipelines and two natural liquefied gas storage and regasification terminals, Altamira in the Gulf of Mexico and Energa Costa Azul in Baja California (part of the natural gas from Energa Costa Azul goes to the United States), and a third Terminal is being built in the port of Manzanillo to receive gas from Peru. In addition, it has six more regasification terminal projects. It is currently receiving shipments from Nigeria and Trinidad & Tobago. Mexico could be a market for Venezuelas LNG.
Central America
The seven countries of the Central American isthmus have an energy deficit and depend heavily in petroleum fuels (Figure 8). To try to alleviate this situation, in 2006, they set up the Mesoamerican Energy Integration Program (PIEM) with the participation of Mexico, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic. To date, the programs progress has been timid, particularly in the areas of electricity and gas. With regard to natural gas, obtaining supplies from Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela has been discarded. For that reason, El Salvador decided to go ahead and build a regasification terminal to receive liquid methane gas from Peru for generating electricity. This 3
terminal should be ready by 2014. The other countries do not have any concrete natural gas projects. All the countries in this region could be a market for Venezuelas LNG. Panama could even receive it by submarine pipeline via Colombia.
On the Dominican Republic, there are more than 150,000 vehicles currently running on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) that would be converted to NVG. We considered it important to describe the case of the Dominican Republic in detail owing to the opportunity it offers for copying what they are doing there in other countries of Central America and on other islands in the Caribbean. Puerto Rico has had a regasification Terminal in Guayanilla Bay since 2000. It receives gas from T&T and in the future it will receive gas from Qatar. The gas is used to generate electricity.
Colombia
Colombia consumes mainly petroleum products and natural gas in its energy matrix (Figure 9). Colombia will soon have a natural gas deficit. It only has 4.4 tcf in proven reserves, although the authorities expect to achieve a moderate increase in those reserves with exploratory programs being implemented by the Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos - ANH (National Hydrocarbons Agency). Production has stabilized at around 700 Mcfd. Colombia has been aggressive in its gasification program. Today, it caters to nearly 5 million subscribers, mainly residential, and has more than 274,000 vehicles that run on NVG. Since 2007 Colombia is supplying gas to Venezuela between 175 and 200 Mcfd, to attend requirements of power plants in western Venezuela. In the future Colombia would be an obvious market for Venezuelas natural gas, via gas pipelines.
Brazil
Brazil consumes mainly petroleum products and natural gas in its energy matrix (Figure 10). Brazil has natural gas reserves of 12.7 tcf, which will be increased with new offshore discoveries estimated at 40 tcf. With this gas, Brazil is thinking of expanding its petrochemical projects. It is planning a gas liquefaction plant to the south of Rio de Janeiro in the port of Sepetiba. While this new production comes on stream, two regasification terminals are being built, one at Pecem with capacity of 7 million cubic meters a day (cmd) and another in Guanabara Bay to handle 14 million cmd of liquefied gas. This will help to reduce Brazils dependence on Bolivia. 5
Once the new fields have been developed, Brazil will become an LNG exporter, mainly to the United States and Argentina. In Brazil, they are using trucks to transport LNG to remote places. Many towns on the Atlantic coast of the large country of the South could be a natural market for Venezuelas LNG.
Peru
Peru consumes mainly petroleum products, renovable energies and natural gas in its energy matrix (Figure 11). Peru has natural gas reserves of 11.2 tcf and it will soon become the regions second LNG producer and exporter. The project will be undertaken by the company PERU LNG. The total cost of the project is US$ 3.8 billion, the biggest foreign direct investment ever made in Peru. The liquefaction plant will cost US$ 1.5 billion. PERU LNG is a consortium made up of Hunt Oil Company of Dallas, Texas (project lead with participation of 50%), SK Energy of South Korea (20%), Repsol YPF of Spain (20%), and Marubeni of Japan (10%). The natural gas will be delivered to PERU LNGs plant via a new 408 km gas pipeline that will connect the plant with the existing Camisea-Lima pipeline in the Chiquintirca area (Ayacucho). Construction of the PERU LNG plant, with capacity for producing 4.4 million metric tons of LNG a year, is progressing on schedule and within budget, and the first deliveries of LNG are expected to be made in the second half of 2010. It is expected that PERU LNGs exports will generate US$ to the Peruvian economy an average of U.S. $ 1.4 billion of foreign exchange earnings per year for Peru. The Peruvian LNG will go to Mexico and El Salvador. In addition, natural gas from Camisea will be used for local electricity generation. In July 2007, gas production reached 372 Mcfd. The gas producers are: Pluspetrol, who will operate the Camisea field, with 287 Mcfd, Aguayta Energy with 47.58 Mcfd, and Petro-Tech Peruana with 17 Mcfd. In Peru, the use of vehicle gas will also be developed. For geographical reasons, there is an opportunity for Venezuelan gas to go to the Colombian system, then to Ecuadors gas pipelines, and from there to northern Peru and why not?to join the countrys gas system. This is an old Venezuelan project called Gas Pipeline of the Liberators.
Ecuador
Ecuador consumes mainly petroleum products in its energy matrix (Figure 12). Ecuador has modest reserves of associated gas in the order of 1.2 tcf, located mainly in the Oriente and Guayaquil Basins and very little offshore. It has a small liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) plant for domestic 6
consumption. The gas is not used for the most part. Ecuador could be a market for Venezuelas natural gas, which would be delivered via Colombias gas pipelines.
Argentina:
Argentina consumes mainly natural gas and petroleum products in its energy matrix (Figure 13). Argentinas natural gas reserves are currently at 370 billion cubic meters (13.2 tcf) and shrinking. Production is 4.0 billion cfd and declining and local demand is not being met, which means that Argentina has to import natural gas from Bolivia, as well as LNG. The countrys present political circumstances do not favor reversing this situation, although there are government proposals for giving tax breaks to companies that explore for oil and gas and are successful. However, according to the countrys oil executives, Argentina needs to revise its policy on fuel prices. There is an LNG terminal in Baha Blanca, 635 km to the south of Buenos Aires, with the particularity that it is able to receive liquefied methane gas, which is gasified onboard ship and delivered directly into the distribution system onshore. Currently, it is receiving 400 Mcfd, although it has capacity for receiving three shipments of this size a month. The ships that are putting in there have a capacity of 3 billion cubic feet of liquid methane gas. It is the second facility of this type in the world. In addition, Argentine oil company YPF, the local unit of Spain's Repsol YPF, will build a LNG plant about an hour north of Buenos Aires, The LNG plant, which will cost around $150 million to build. Argentina could be a natural market for Venezuelas LNG.
Bolivia
Bolivias energy matrix is 60% oil products, 25% natural gas and 14% hydroelectricity. With proven reserves of 25.1 tcf, the largest free gas reserves in the region, is still pulling the petals of the daisy. The only markets it has are Brazil and Argentina, to which it cannot increase its present supply volumes because it is developing its reserves very slowly. Bolivia had companies interested in producing and exporting LNG to the US market, but the Evo Morales administration is not authorizing execution of the projects. Bolivia is not viewed as a market for Venezuelas natural gas.
Chile
Chile has a balanced primary energy matrix (Figure 14). The country is moving ahead with an aggressive exploration program in the southern part of the country. The oil fields are concentrated in the Magallanes Basin in three areas or districts: Continente, Isla Tierra del Fuego, and Costa Afuera. Currently, the majority of crude and natural gas production comes from the offshore fields, which started to be developed in the 80s. Since 1950, 23 fields have been discovered in Chiles Magallanes Basin, 12 of which have proven reserves of at least 1.6 billion m3 of gas each. At the 7
same time, construction of the regasification terminal in Quintero, in the north, is being completed, with capacity for handling between 6 million cmd and 10 million cmd, and another terminal is to be built further north in Mejillones to handle 5.5 million cmd. Chile is receiving LNG from Trinidad & Tobago and, therefore, it could be a natural market for Venezuelas LNG.
Of course, analysis of the energy matrix of each country will be of key importance for making proposals of gas as a substitute energy source for some of the components of those matrixes (see figures by countries). The questions Who has what resources? and Who consumes what? need to be answered very carefully. It is necessary to draw up import and export figures for each type of energy, as well as a consumption matrix by population sector, highlighting the energy reserves of each sector that is a potential recipient of Venezuelan gas.
In addition, it will be necessary to study the feasibility of integration in the area of natural gas with regard to other integrations that already exist or are possible. Areas of agreement and dispute will have to be evaluated and the question, Will there be energy customs? asked.
Another thing that should be taken into account is the precarious stability of democracy in some countries and, in others, the existence of institutions lacking legality that are incapable of making the long-term commitments required by the natural gas industry.
These situations and the exceptions that some hope to introduce into the integrating processes will certainly make integrations difficult.
Another point that needs to be addressed is that of establishing exactly which regulatory entities or bodies are going to direct and monitor the integration process; which information technologies will be used; and how the problems of environmental deterioration will be dealt with (Who will pay the bill?).
Finally, the big question energy, economic, and foreign relations policymakers will have to ask themselves is: Do the countries really want integration?
official 2006 figures (Figure 17); more recent figures are not available), and it is in deficit. The gas used in the production of oil and natural gas could be replaced with water, carbon dioxide or nitrogen for secondary recovery; with electrical submergible pumps in gas lift operations; with Orimulsion for steam generation; and so on. Desirable energy matrix for the domestic market: Although gas accounts for 15.8% of the primary energy matrix and 36% of the secondary energy matrix, the consumption of liquids derived from petroleum is still high (38%) and much of that consumption could be replaced with methane gas and other energy sources, in particular biofuels and solar energy, and even by Orimulsion (see tables).
PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION 2006 Figures in mboed* mboed 3,494.30 718.6 134.6 110.2 82.8 4,540.5 % 77.0 15.8 3.0 2.4 1.8 100.0
Oil Natural gas Hydroelectricity** Firewood and Coal Orimulsion (Year 2000) TOTAL ENERGY PRODUCED PODE 2006, page 159
* thousands of barrels of oil equivalent per day ** 1 GWh is equivalent to 1.65 boed
mboed Liquid Hydrocarbons Natural Gas (Methane) Hydroelectricity TOTAL 565 515 370 1450
% 38 36 26 100
10
Prices and tariffs for the different energy sources: It is common knowledge that the prices of gasoline, fuel oil, diesel, electricity, and LPG are the lowest in the region. This results in the improper use of all of these energy sources in the country.
Policy of producer and consumer subsidies: These policies need to be geared directly to those who really need the subsidy and not be applied to the entire population, as happens at the moment.
Ways of exporting energy: The debate here will inevitably be whether gas is really the ideal energy source for the purposes of integration. If gas is going to be used primarily for generating electricity in many countries, why not consider Orimulsion, either using it to generate electricity in Venezuela for export or exporting it to be used to generate electricity in the country requiring it?
Ways of participating in South Americas energy grid: As mentioned, there are several ways of participating.
Export projects and the countrys security: Consideration must always be given to supplying the domestic market before signing any long-term supply contract, regardless of the energy source in question.
Orimulsion, an alternative energy source? Undoubtedly, it will be necessary to evaluate the feasibility of using this hydrocarbon, both on the domestic market and for export. This will inevitably have an impact on the change in Venezuelas secondary energy matrix. That said, it will also be necessary to evaluate the ecological impact of developing the crude in the Orinoco Belt.
Measures that will have to be taken for the necessary intensive development of contingent offshore gas resources (expectations regarding the development of reserves).
The need to strengthen human capacities throughout the gas resource value chain. Proposals for moving towards a regional regulatory framework for natural gas: A review and update of the decisions taken in 1998 at the Third Hemispheric Meeting of Energy Ministers (Caracas Declaration) would seem to be necessary.
Finally, it will be necessary to: 1. Promote the intensive development of the gas sector; explore and develop expectations of natural gas offshore and onshore resources; and validate and certify associated and 11
nonassociated gas reserves; all activities to be undertaken with a high degree of participation by the domestic and international private sector (Figure 18). 2. Use, with very few changes, the present legal framework. This will make it possible to promote enforcement of the Gaseous Hydrocarbons Law and its Regulations, in particular everything having to do with free gas exploration and exploitation licenses. 3. Review international relations: In 2006, Venezuela withdrew from the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) and the Group of Three, and there is no guarantee that it will be joining MERCOSUR. This could result in a loss of opportunities for integration processes.
FIGURES
Figure 1 Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
12
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
13
Figure 11
Figure 12
Figure 13
Figure 14
Figure 15
Figure 16
14
Figure 17
Figure 18
Bibliography
ALBA Energy Treaty, adopted at the 5th Summit of the Bolivarian Alternative for Latin America and the Caribbean (2007) Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), http://www.ftaa-alca.org/alca_s.asp Latin American Reciprocal State Petroleum Assistance Association (ARPEL), http://portal.arpel.org/wps/portal/.scr/Login/ Latin American Integration Association (ALADI), http://www.aladi.org/nsfaladi/sitio.nsf/portal2004 BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2009), http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9026015&contentId=7048013 Comisin Nacional de Energa, Chile (2006), Statistics and Projects Andean Community of Nations (CAN), http://www.comunidadandina.org/quienes.htm Congreso Anfictinico o Congreso de Panam (1826), Diccionario de Historia de Venezuela, 2nd edition. Caracas: Fundacin Polar, 1997. http://www.fpolar.org.ve/nosotros/historia/panama.html Energy Information Administration - EIA. International Energy Outlook, 2009. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html Gonzalez C., Diego J. (2005-2006), Perspectivas para el gas a nivel regional, PETRLEOYV, ao 7, No 20, Caracas. Gonzalez C., Diego J. (2007), Reformas de las leyes, PETRLEOYV, ao 8, No 27, Caracas. Gonzalez C., Diego J. (2007), Hydrocarbons Reserves in Venezuela, MULTI-SCIENCE PUBLISHING CO. LTD. 5 Wates Way, Brentwood, Essex CM15 9TB, United Kingdom (paper presented at the WEC in Rome) Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America CAF-IIRSA (2007), http://www.caf.com/view/index.asp?ms=8&pageMs=10180 Institute for the Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (INTAL), http://www.iadb.org/intal/index.asp?idioma=ENG Ley Orgnica de Hidrocarburos Gaseosos (1999), Caracas Common Market of the South, MERCOSUR (2007), http://www.mercosur.int/msweb/ Ministerio de Industria y Comercio, Paraguay (2006), Statistics for Paraguay. Latin American Energy Organization OLADE Petrleo y Otros Datos Estadsticos - PODE (2006). Lista de Organizaciones de energa y comerciales asociadas por Venezuela, Caracas. 15
Petrleos de Venezuela, S.A. Plan Siembra Petrolera. Caracas: 2005. Third Hemispheric Meeting of Energy Ministers (1998). Caracas Declaration. Dr. Paltoo, Vernon STCIC, Trinidad Tobago, May 2008
Web Pages:
Production data for Mexico: http://sie.energia.gob.mx/sie/bdiController?action=login Secretaria de Energa de Mxico (Energy Department, Mexico): http://www.sener.gob.mx/webSener/portal/index.jsp?id=69 Gas prices in Bolivia: http://www.superhid.gov.bo/public/Precios_GN.pdf LNG projects worldwide: http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/international.html Projects in Central and South America: http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/worldwide/maps/Caribbean_South_Central_America.pdf Peru: http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/elmundo/articulo-alan-garcia-confirmo-primeraexportacion-de-gas-sera-mexico-2010 Peru: earnings per year: http://www.odebrecht.com.pe/obras/cdb-melchorita/beneficios Oil & Gas Journal: http://ogjresearch.stores.yahoo.net/lngworldwide.html Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/global/importers.html Trinidad - Tobago: http://www.energy.gov.tt/data_and_publications.php?mid=134 IHS CERA. Proyectos LNG en el Cono Sur: http://www.cbge.org/documento/SylvieDapote.pdf GUYANA: http://www.olade.org.ec/documentos2/info_guyana_energy_agency.pdf WEC 2008: http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/lac_executive_summary.pdf EIA statistics: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/table1.pdf Argentina LNG project: http://www.energyintel.com/publicationhomepage.asp?publication_id=117
16