Running head: Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting Team Members Principles of Macroeconomics/ECO372 Date Instructor Name

Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting n economic forecast is a declaration of the things to come! "hese declarations ma# or ma# not contain accurate information or $e short of an# sound foundation% the# ma# or ma# not $e specific or unfocused! "he predictions are created $# methods as &aried as 'ell(e)perienced s#stems of man# econometricall#(pro$a$le e*uations+ through to methods that ha&e hardl# an#

&isi$le source! Forecasting data can $e stored and processed in man# different 'a#s! ,ome of the resources that use this data are "he -ureau of .ross /omestic Product+ data!go&+ "he -ureau of 0a$or ,tatistics+ and "he 1!,! Census -ureau! "he -ureau of .ross /omestic Product uses man# resources to figure the .ross /omestic Product 2./P3! ,ome of the *uantitati&e factors used are the+ 4personal consumption e)penditures 2PCE3+ e)ports+ nonresidential fi)ed in&estment+ pri&ate in&entor# in&estment+ and residential fi)ed in&estment that 'ere partl# offset $# a negati&e contri$ution from state and local go&ernment spending5 2-ureau of .ross /omestic Product+ p! 2+ 26123! "he *uantitati&e figures found in this document indicate ho' the ./P has gro'n 1!78 in the *uarter 2 of 2612 2-ureau of .ross /omestic Product+ 26123! "he ne's release from 9ul# 27+ 2612 indicates ho' each of the *uantitati&e factors contri$utes to the ./P! Percentages and dollar amounts for each factor descri$e 'hich part of the ./P is gro'ing more and 'hich is declining+ there$# pro&iding a manner to *ualitati&el# to estimate ho' each area of the goods and ser&ices has affected the ./P! DATA.GOV is a web-site that collects and uses the History of Economic Forecasting and historical data. The two main categories are the Federal Government Finances and Employment and the category type is a raw data cytology. The agencys that use DATA.GOv are the Executive Offices of the President of the United States and the Office of Management and Budgets. DATA.GOv web site covers the United States and they collect data by computer, and from people. The data collect quality is certified and is privet and confidential.

Economic Forecasting Some of the raw data includes a DATA.GOV Catalog and U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants; DATA.GOV offers an interactive datasets and under this site has the White House Visitor Records Request and Health Reform Webinars. Info.samhsa.gov DATA.Gov also offers a GEO.DATA.GOV where the government can chart who, what, and where the most economic

hardships are concentrated. This site is useful to the government for past budge information, and other economic information that will help the President with that budgeted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects, analyzes, and disseminates essential economic information so that it could be of use to the decision making of the public and private group. The Bureau is also accountable for measuring labor market doings, working circumstances, and price changes in the financial system. This is a very valuable source for individuals who are seeking a career change or want to go back to school to get ahead in their current field. Individuals could find this resource helpful if they have gotten a job offer out of their city and want to investigate how successful that city is in the workforce. There is also a lot of information for those wanting to open up their own business or expand their current one. The Bureau of Labor Statistics gives information mostly as quantitative. For example some of the information given is unemployment rates, consumer and producer price indexes, employment costs, and compensation data to name a few. Any statistic a person wants to know about the job market could be found with them. "he Census report found on the go&ernment 'e$ site gi&es one a large amount of different information! :ot onl# does gi&e #ou information in regards to the population and famil# histor#% there is information on famil# histor#+ ;o$s+ health insurance+ housing+ and income! <t also has information on foreign trade+ e)port codes+ economic census and local emplo#ment d#namics! <t is also information on economic indicators under $usiness = <ndustr# 21nited ,tates Census

Economic Forecasting

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-ureau+ 26123! "he information 'ould $e considered a *uantitati&e methods due to the fact it use historical information to ;udge changes that ha&e occurred from one #ear to the ne)t 2Ca&anagh+ 26123! Summary Part Two "his 'ee? 'e ha&e learned a$out the aggregate demand and the aggregate suppl# model! @e also learned a$out the classical and Ae#nesian economics and ho' 'e 'ent from one to the other and 'h#! @e learned the part the great depression pla#ed in $ring around the change from classical to Ae#nesian economics% 9ohn Ae#nes stopped as?ing if things 'as going to get $etter $ut 'h# 'as there pro$lems in the short term! @e 'ent o&er the / cur&e in 'hich < do not ha&e a full understanding! <t affects m# ;o$ industr# in the fact most of our patients are on Medicare and that is controlled $# the 'a# the .o&ernment decides to spend mone# in a rough econom#! <n Chapter 12 'e learned a$out going from Ae#nesian model of economics to modern macro model! @e also loo?ed at the ad&antages and disad&antage of the /,.E Model! Margery is struggling with this whole economic concept and Discussion Question 9 the investment environment today, she does not follow the stock market, and lives day to day pay check to pay check so she does not know much about investment and what she does know she has gotten from this class and the other economic classes. She does know that the economic recession we are in has put a hurt on her income and her bosses income. This week started off a little slow for Veronica and our group but she thinks we have been able to get on track to finish off the week successfully. She is also having trouble putting all the information together. Veronica has never been good at the subject of economics and find that things have not changed. She is able to go through the readings fine but when it comes to

Economic Forecasting doing something with it, she is unable to. Hopefully things will get better for her as time passes and she will be able to finish the class with success. Sonia has learned a lot with this weeks discussion questions and weekly readings. She does try to keep up with current events and unemployment rates but thats as far as her economics knowledge goes. She is looking forward to learning more as the class continues.

Economic Forecasting References -ureau of .ross /omestic Product! 2612! : "<O: 0 <:COME :/ PRO/1C" CCO1:", .RO,, /OME,"<C PRO/1C": ,ECO:/ C1 R"ER 2612 2 /D :CE E,"<M "E3 RED<,E/ E,"<M "E,: 266E "FRO1.F F<R," C1 R"ER 2612! Retrie&ed ugust >+ 2612 from http://'''!$ea!go&/ne'sreleases/national/gdp/2612/pdf/gdp2*12Gad&!pdf!

Ca&anagh+ A! 226123! Quantitative and Qualitative Forecasting Techniques! Retrie&ed ugust 3+ 2612+ from eho' mone#: http://'''!eho'!com/infoGH77EHH7G*uantitati&e(*ualitati&e( forecasting(techni*ues!html /ata!go&! &aila$le: http://'''!data!go&/! 0ast accessed Bth ug 2612!

United States Census Bureau! 226123! Retrie&ed ugust >+ 26127+ from Census! go&: http://'''!census!go&/ 1nited ,tates /epartment of 0a$or! 23! -ureau of 0a$or ,tatics! &aila$le: http://'''!$ls!go&/! 0ast accessed Bth ug 2612!