1AC Plan Text

The United States Federal Government should fully fund the Constellation program.

1AC China
Contention 1 is China Without Constellation Air For e satellite laun h osts !ill dou"le due to ommer ial ro!d#out Ben $annotta, editor at C4ISR Journal, authoritative information source on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, 3-12-20 1% !"S" #ir $orce %arns of
increased launch costs& htt'())%%%"c4isr*ournal"com)stor+"'h' ,$-4.3/..0 The U.S. Air For e and &ational 'e onnaissan e (ffi e ould fa e ma)or in reases in the ost of laun hing satellites as a result of the 12ama administration*s de ision to an el &ASA*s shuttle repla ement program + a to' #ir $orce official said" 3ar+ 4a+ton, de'ut+ undersecretar+ of the #ir $orce for s'ace 'rograms, told mem2ers of Congress on 5ednesda+ that the ("ama administration had not as,ed the Air For e to examine the effe ts of an eling &ASA*s Constellation program 2efore the $e2" 1 announcement" The military and intelligen e ommunity rely on the same manufa turers as &ASA to "uild the ro ,ets that laun h their satellites+ "ut the White -ouse plans to turn to ommer ially o!ned ro ,ets to launch astronauts follo!ing retirement of the shuttle later this +ear" 6arl+ information sho%s the pri e of ro ,et propulsion systems for the military and &'( .might dou"le/ as a result, 4a+ton said"

That trades off !ith funding for spa e "ased surveillan e

7urner Brinton, S'ace 8e%s Staff 5riter, 1-14-2011 !"S" #ir $orce 669: Budget 6;'ected to S<+roc<et& htt'())%%%"s'acene%s"com)militar+)110114-eelv-'rogramcosts-s<+roc<et"html 5#S=I83718 > 4ro*ected "udgets for the !"S" Air For e*s 0volved 0xpenda"le 1aun h 2ehi le 300124 program !ill rise "y more than 5% per ent over the ne;t fe% +ears as the ost of materials has in reased sharply and the servi e "uys more ro ,ets to 'rovide sta2ilit+ for the industrial 2ase, according to government and industr+ sources" 7he #ir $orce 'lans to re?uest @1"/A 2illion for its 'rimar+ launch vehicle 'rogram in 2012, some @4.0 million more than it 'reviousl+ 'lanned to re?uest for 2012, a government source said" 7he serviceBs five-+ear 2udget 'lan for 669: totaled @C"3 2illion in its 2011 s'ending 2lue'rint, and that figure %ill rise to @10 2illion in the re?uest it sends to Congress in $e2ruar+, the source said" 7he 669: 'rogram %as esta2lished in the 1000s to 'rovide relia2le, lo%er-cost s'ace launch services for all 2ut the smallest !"S" government satellites using a single, modular famil+ of roc<ets" 7he #ir $orce su2se?uentl+ o'ted to su''ort t%o se'arate families of roc<ets 2ased on 'ro*ections of soaring commercial demand that never materialiDed" 7he #tlas . and Eelta 4 roc<et families are 2uilt and launched 2+ Eenver-2ased !nited 9aunch #lliance F!9#G, a Boeing-9oc<heed Hartin 'artnershi', %hich has a 'erfect record in 3C launches since 2002" In a 'ress conference Jan" C, !"S" Secretar+ of Eefense Ro2ert 3ates said the #ir $orce starting in 2012 %ould increase 669: 'rocurement to assure access to s'ace for 2oth militar+ and other government agencies %hile sustaining our industrial 2ase"& 5hile the Eefense Ee'artment is the 'rimar+ 669: user, the roc<ets also launch satellites for 8#S# and the 8ational 1ceanic and

#tmos'heric #dministration" 7he #ir $orce 2ought three 669: launches in 2010 and 'lans to 2u+ three in 2011, though Congress has not +et 'rovided full-+ear funding for the government" Starting in 2012, the #ir $orce %ill see< to 2u+ a2out five 669: launches 'er +ear, #ir $orce Secretar+ Hichael Eonle+ said Jan" 12 at an #ir $orce #ssociation media 2riefing here" #t least some of the money needed to over rising 0012 osts !ill "e dra!n from other spa e programs+ and among the missions li,ely to get s6uee7ed is spa e surveillan e , sources said" The Air For e at one time planned to have a com'etition under %a+ 2+ no% to "uild a follo!#on to the Spa e 8ased Spa e Surveillan e satellite that launched in Se'tem2er" That pro urement has "een deferred "eyond 9%19, these sources said"

We*ll isolate t!o internal lin,s for spa e targeting oordination: 14 S8SS solidifies spa e ontrol "y giving offensive and defensive prote tion of our satellites against ASATs China ;aily <=5)2011 !"S" R I E s'ace surveillance s+stem includes laser antisatellite %ea'ons& htt'())%%%"china-dail+"org)Hil-8e%s)!"S"-R-E-s'ace-surveillances+stem-includes-laser-anti-satellite-%ea'ons) (n e the system is ompleted+ the U.S. military !ill have a po!erful spa e situational a!areness+ !ith a"solute asymmetri advantage in spa e. >see> the a"ility to: target more pre ise+ more po!erful S8SS s+stem has five features" 7rac< the target more than one monitor" S8SS an "e on the geostationar+ or2it F361G all of the follo%ing monitoring and tra ,ing targets in s'ace, can 2e greater than 0"1 m in diameter 1/,000 cataloged s'ace goals, monitor the diameter of 0"01 meters a2ove the ?%%+%%% o")e ts in spa e, trac<ing more than A00 'ieces in-or2it satellites" se ond atalog update y le is short" #nd the S'ace Surveillance 8et%or< FSS8G match, S8SS system atalog update y le !ill "e shortened from < days to 9 days. Third+ the high pre ision or2it determination" S8SS lo! or"ital positioning error of less than 1% meters high or2it or2it determination error of less than .00 meters, it is important to 2e a timel+ reminder of oneJs o%n s'acecraft to avoid or"ital de"ris. Fourth deep spa e exploration apa"ility. S8SS s+stem is com'leted, at an+ moment, an guarantee a full or"it G0( satellites monitoring the 361 target monitoring apa ity !ill in rease 5%@. five is not su")e t to !eather effe ts, can %or< around the cloc<" SBSS s+stem from the im'act of 2ad %eather, can continuous 24 hours a da+ of %or<" K'la+K ca'a2ilit+( 4orta2le anti-satellite laser %ea'ons attac< SBSS s+stem is com'leted, there !ill "e t!o military purposes. First, a variet+ of spa e surveillan e threats. S8SS system is the "a ,"one of the U.S. missile defense system that an dis over the se rets of other ountries+ satellite+ satellite atta , target" 1nce a satellite from the original trac<, %ill 2e issued a %arning, trac<ing and 'ositioning of the satellite, 2ut this antisatellite %ea'ons read+" S8SS system and 34S s+stem an greatly improve the safety of G0( ommuni ations satellitesA on a se ret re onnaissan e satellite apa"ility is also very strong+ even if the radar did not find the target+ amera systems an still "e a urately positioned. se ond is the implementation of anti#satellite atta ,. S8SS system B arriesC laser !eapons, give the enem+ a fatal 2lo%, %hich is the !"S" s'ace laser %ea'ons 'rogram" #lthough the United States of Kdefense> as an ex use to enhan e

spa e surveillan e apa"ility, 2ut in fact, it is tantamount to enhan e spa e# stri,e apa"ility. S8SS s+stem is to provide s'ace for the U.S. goal of detailed data is a urate and riti al to om"at the 'remise for all land+ sea+ air+ spa e anti#satellite !eapons, their de'lo+ment in s'ace ahead of itself Kreconnaissance forces" K In addition, the s+stem or the anti-satellite %ea'ons test in s'ace stations"

94 S8SS saves our "roader satellite and GPS arrays from de"ris D urrent tra ,ing insuffi ient
Levin HcCane+, managing editor of 3overnment Com'uter 8e%s, /-12-2010 Satellite %ill trac< s'ace *un<& htt'())defenses+stems"com)articles)2010)0/)12)technicalities-s'ace-*un<satellite"as'; H667 7=6 J67S#H( The spa e around 0arth is o upied "y satellites used for geographi positioning, %eather o2servations, radio communications, spa e o"servations and man+ other uses. 8ut !hat it hasn*t had is a satellite to ,eep an eye on all the other satellites+ spent ro ,et stages and )un, floating around u' there" 7he #ir $orce is 'lanning to launch the Spa e#8ased Spa e Surveillan e satellite+ %hich is designed to provide a vie! from spa e of everything or"iting 0arth. The S8SS program is intended to support ;efense ;epartment operations "ut ould also help &ASA determine safe flight paths for the International S'ace Station, Spa e Shuttle or !hatever might follo! those 'rograms" 7he launch %as scheduled for Jul+ A 2ut has 2een dela+ed after tests found a soft%are 'ro2lem in a Hinotaur I: roc<et similar to the one that %ill 2e used to lift the satellite in into s'ace" # ne% launch date hasnJt 2een set, 2ut eventuall+ the SBSS satellite %ill 2e off the ground" ItBs an idea, in develo'ment since 2001, %hose time has come" S'ace *un<, more 'olitel+ <no%n as or"ital de"ris+ is a gro!ing potential pro"lem for !or,ing satellites and other s'acecraft" The Air For e*s ground#"ased radar and teles opes tra , a"out 1,000 satellites and 9%+%%% pie es of de"ris in or"it, the 5ashington 4ost re'orted" 8ut there are millions of "its of spa e#"orne )un," Schematics de'icting <no%n or2ital de2ris loo< 'racticall+ li<e a gala;+" 8ot all of it is of conse?uence, 2ut de"ris as small as four in hes a ross is enough to destroy a satellite. And the amount of it is only going to gro!+ as China, the 6uro'ean !nion and other ountries laun h their o!n glo"al positioning systems in the coming decades" The S8SS program ould avoid a lot of potential damage "y providing a more detailed vie!. #nd after that, ho% a2out going to the ne;t 'hase, and getting a cleanu' cre% of satellites in or2it,

Current U.S. spa e surveillan e te hnology is vulnera"le to ne! developments in China*s nu lear posture ### upgraded apa"ilities are riti al to targeting Chinese mo"ile missiles ensuring nu lear prima y Hatthe% -allex, H# Candidate, Securit+ 4olic+ Studies, 6lliott School of International #ffairs, 7he 3eorge 5ashington !niversit+, 1cto2er 9%1%, Chinese
Ho2ile Balistic Hissiles( Im'lications for !"S" Counterforce 1'erations&, Center for Strategic and International Studies, htt's())csis"org)files)attachments)101022M4resentationM4ro'osalM#2stracts"'df

#s 'art of an effort to "uild a more effective and surviva"le deterrent force, China has e;'anded the num2er of missiles it de'lo+s and shifted a greater 'ro'ortion of its deterrent forces to mo"ile systems in luding road-mo2ile missiles such as the E$-21, E$-31 and ;F#?1A. These ne! mo"ile apa"ilities ma,e the tas, of tra ,ing and targeting China*s deterrent for es as part of US nu lear ounterfor e operations mu h more diffi ult . 7he relationshi' 2et%een the !nited States and China is the most im'ortant strategic d+ad in the 21st centur+" Eaintenan e of a redi"le nu lear ounterfor e apa"ility is ne essary for maintaining the sta2ilit+ of this relationshi' and to dis ourage 'otential Chinese adventurism in regional hots'ots such as the Tai!an Strait and the South China Sea. Eo"ility of Chinese nu,es ma,es them diffi ult to tra ,. !S trac< record on mo2ile targets, including !"S" o'erations against Ira?i 2allistic missiles in the first 3ulf 5ar and mo2ile ground targets in the air cam'aign against Losovo, suggest that current !S ca'a2ilities %ould 2e insufficient for conventional or nuclear counterforce o'erations" US spa e "ased surveillan e assets !ould "e parti ularly vulnera"le to Chinese ASAT apa"ilities %hile manned and unmanned aerial assets %ould find it difficult to o'erate in the Chinese air defense environment" # trou2ling issue for !S o'erations against Chinese missile forces is the 'ro2lem of distinguishing 2et%een nuclear and conventionall+ armed targets" 7he !nited States cannot currentl+ distinguish 2et%een units designated for nuclear and conventional o'erations and identical missiles are designated for 2oth regional nuclear and conventional stri<e missions" !S efforts to diminish Chinese conventional stri<e ca'a2ilities ma+ 2e inter'reted as a counterforce attac< leading to unintentional escalation of the conflict" Current US apa"ilities are insuffi ient for counterforce o'erations to 2e conducted %ith conventional %ea'ons and nu lear ounterfor e operations ould not ensure the destru tion of mo"ile missile systems !ithout inflicting significant collateral damage to civilian 'o'ulations" $mproving US $S' apa"ilities+ in luding more surviva"le spa e "ased assets and unmanned surveillance assets ca'a2le of 'enetrating Chinese air defenses, !ould "olster the a"ility of the United States to ondu t ounterfor e operations" 5hile such im'rovements %ould im'rove the a2ilit+ of the !S to eliminate Chinese nuclear %ea'ons it is unclear if this 2enefit %ould out%eigh the negative im'act on deterrence sta2ilit+"

United States nu lear prima y is ne essary to deter or prevent es alation of onfli t

Leir 9ie2er, #ssistant 4rofessor of 4olitical Science at the !niversit+ of 8otre Eame, and Ear+l 4ress, #ssociate 4rofessor of 3overnment at Eartmouth College, Jul+)#ugust 200/, Su'eriorit+ Com'le;,& 7he #tlantic, htt'())%%%"theatlantic"com)doc)200/0/)china-nu<es $rom a militar+ 'ers'ective, this moderniDation has 'aid off( A U.S. nu lear first stri,e ould 6ui ,ly destroy China*s strategi nu lear arsenal. 5hether launched in 'eacetime or during a crisis, a preemptive stri,e !ould li,ely leave China !ith no means of nu lear retaliation against Ameri an territory. #nd given the trends in 2oth arsenals, China may live under the shado! of U.S. nu lear prima y for years to ome. 7his assessment is 2ased on unclassified information, standard targeting 'rinci'les, and formulas that defense anal+sts have used for decades" F#nd %e s+stematicall+ chose conservative estimates for <e+ un<no%ns, meaning that our anal+sis understates !"S" counterforce ca'a2ilities"G 7he sim'lest version of an #merican 'reem'tive stri<e %ould have nuclear-armed

su2marines in the 4acific launch 7rident II missiles at the Chinese ICBH field in =enan 'rovince" 7he 8av+ <ee's at least t%o of these su2marines on hard alert& in the 4acific at all times, meaning the+Bre read+ to fire %ithin 1. minutes of a launch order" Since ea h su"marine arries 9F nu lear#tipped missiles !ith an average of six !arheads per missile+ ommanders have almost ?%% !arheads ready for immediate use. 7his is more than enough to assign multi'le %arheads to each of the 1A Chinese silos" Chinese leaders %ould have little or no %arning of the attac<" Euring the Cold 5ar, !"S" su2marines 'osed little danger to ChinaBs silos, or to an+ other hardened targets" 6ach %arhead on the 7rident I missiles had little chance>roughl+ 12 'ercent>of success" 8ot onl+ %ere those missiles inaccurate, their %arheads had a relativel+ small +ield" FSimilarl+, until the late 10A0s, !"S" ICBHs lac<ed the accurac+ to carr+ out a relia2le disarming attac< against China"G But the 8av+Bs ne% %arheads and missiles are far more lethal" A Trident $$ missile is so a urate+ and the ne!er WGG !arhead so po!erful+ that if the !arhead and missile fun tion normally+ the destru tion of the silo is virtually assured Fthe li<elihood is calculated as greater than 00 'ercentG" In realit+, #merican 'lanners could not assume such near-'erfect results" Some missiles or %arheads could malfunction( 1ne missileBs roc<ets might fail to igniteN anotherBs guidance s+stem might 2e defective" So a realistic counterforce 'lan might assign four %arheads to each silo" 7he !"S" %ould cross-target& the missiles, meaning that the %arheads on each missile %ould each go to different silos, so that a silo %ould 2e s'ared onl+ if man+ missiles malfunctioned" 6ven assuming that 20 'ercent of missiles malfunctioned>the standard, conservative assum'tion t+'icall+ used 2+ nuclear anal+sts>there is a H< per ent han e that every Chinese E$. silo !ould "e destroyed in a 4-on-1 attac<" FB+ com'arison, a similar attac< using Cold 5arOera 7rident I missiles %ould have 'roduced less than a 1 'ercent chance of success" 7he lea' in #merican counterforce ca'a2ilities since the end of the Cold 5ar is staggering"G 8eyond "olstering the a"ility to ondu t a first stri,e+ the improvements to U.S. ounterfor e !eapons also allo! !ar planners to design nu lear options that !ill ma,e the !eapons more .usa"le/ during high#sta,es rises. 8uclear 'lanners face man+ choices %hen the+ consider stri<ing a given target" $irst, the+ must choose a %arhead +ield" 7he #merican arsenal includes lo%-+ield %ea'ons such as the B-C1 2om2, %hich can detonate %ith as little e;'losive force as 0"3 <ilotons Fone-fiftieth the 'o%er of the 2om2 that destro+ed =iroshimaG, and high-+ield %ea'ons such as the B-A3 2om2, %hich can +ield 1,200 <ilotons FA0 times the strength of the =iroshima 2om2G" $or a militar+ 'lanner, high-+ield %ea'ons are attractive 2ecause the+Bre ver+ li<el+ to destro+ the target>even if the %ea'on misses 2+ some distance" 9o%-+ield %arheads, on the other hand, can 2e more discriminating, if 'lanners %ant to minimiDe civilian casualties" # second <e+ decision for %ar 'lanners is %hether to set the %ea'on to detonate at ground level or in the air a2ove the target" # ground2urst creates enormous over'ressure and ground shoc<, ideal for destro+ing a hardened target" But ground2ursts also create a lot of radioactive fallout" Eirt and other matter is suc<ed u' into the mushroom cloud, mi;es %ith radioactive material, and, after 2eing carried 2+ the %ind, falls to earth in the hours after the 2last, s'reading lethal radiation" #ir2ursts create smaller Dones of e;tremel+ high over'ressure, 2ut the+ also generate ver+ little fallout" If the detonation occurs a2ove a threshold altitude F%hich de'ends on the %ea'on +ieldG, virtuall+ no heav+ 'articles from the ground mi; %ith the radioactive material in the fire2all" 7he radioactive material rises into the high atmos'here and then falls to earth over the

course of several %ee<s in a far less dangerous state and over a ver+ %ide area, greatl+ reducing the harm to civilians" $n the past+ a nu lear atta , on China*s arsenal !ould have had horrifi humanitarian onse6uen es" The !eapons !ere less a urate+ so an effe tive stri,e !ould have re6uired multiple high#yield !arheads+ detonating on the ground, against each target" The Federation of Ameri an S ientists and the &atural 'esour es ;efense Coun il modeled the onse6uen es of su h an atta , >similar to the su2marine attac< descri2ed a2ove>and 'u2lished their findings in 200C" The results !ere so"ering. Although China*s long#range missiles are deployed in a lightly populated region, lethal fallout from an attac< !ould travel hundreds of miles and ,ill more than ? million Chinese ivilians. #merican leaders might have contem'lated such a stri<e, 2ut onl+ in the most dire circumstances" 8ut things are hanging radi ally. $mproved a ura y no! allo!s !ar planners to target hardened sites !ith lo!#yield !arheads and even air"ursts. And the United States is pushing its "rea,throughs in a ura y even further" $or e;am'le, for man+ +ears #merica has used glo2al'ositioning s+stems in con*unction %ith on2oard inertial-guidance s+stems to im'rove the accurac+ of its conventionall+ armed Fthat is, nonnuclearG cruise missiles" #lthough an adversar+ ma+ *am the 34S signal near li<el+ targets, the cruise missiles use 34S along their flight route and then>if the+ lose the signal> use their 2ac<u' inertial-guidance s+stem for the final fe% <ilometers" 7his a''roach has dramaticall+ im'roved a cruise missileBs accurac+ and could 2e a''lied to nuclear-armed cruise missiles as %ell" The United States is deploying )am# resistant GPS re eivers on other !eapons+ experimenting !ith GPS on its nu lear#armed "allisti missiles+ and planning to deploy a ne! generation of GPS satellitesD!ith higher#po!ered signals to ompli ate )amming. The payoff for e6uipping ruise missiles 3or nu lear "om"s4 !ith GPS is lear !hen one estimates the ivilian asualties from a lo!er#yield+ air"urst atta ,. We as,ed Eatthe! E Iin7ie, a scientific consultant to the 8atural Resources Eefense Council and coauthor of the 200C stud+, to rerun the analysis using lo!#yield detonations ompati"le !ith nu lear !eapons urrently in the U.S. arsenal. Using three !arheads per target to in rease the odds of destroying every silo+ the model predi ts fe!er than 1+%%% Chinese asualties from fallout. $n some lo!#yield s enarios+ fe!er than 1%% Chinese !ould "e ,illed or in)ured from fallout. 7he model is 2etter suited to 'redicting fallout casualties than to forecasting deaths from the 2last and fire, 2ut given the lo! population in the rural region !here the silos are+ Chinese fatalities !ould "e fe!er than J+%%% in even the most destru tive s enario !e modeled. #nd in the future+ there may "e relia"le nonnu lear options for destroying Chinese silos. $reed from the 2urden of <illing millions, a U.S. president staring at the threat of a Chinese nu lear atta , on U.S. for es+ allies+ or territory might "e more in lined to hoose preemptive a tion" Strategic Im'lications of the 8uclear Im2alance The most plausi"le flash point for a serious U.S.#China onfli t is Tai!an. Suppose Tai!an de lared independen e" China has re'eatedl+ %arned that such a move %ould 'rovo<e an attac<, 'ro2a2l+ a ma*or air and naval cam'aign to shatter 7ai%anBs defenses and leave the island vulnera2le to con?uest . $f the United States de ided to defend Tai!an+ Ameri an for es !ould li,ely th!art China*s offensive, since aerial and naval %arfare are strengths of the !"S" militar+" But looming defeat %ould 'lace great 'ressure on ChinaBs leaders" 1osing the !ar

might mean permanently losing Tai!an. This !ould undermine the domesti legitima y of the Chinese Communist Party+ !hi h in reasingly relies on the appeal of nationalism to )ustify its rule" # cri''ling defeat %ould also strain relations 2et%een 'olitical leaders in Bei*ing and the Chinese militar+" To stave off a regime#threatening disaster+ the politi al leaders might de ide to raise the sta,es "y pla ing part of the Chinese nu lear for e on alert in ho'es of coercing the !nited States into acce'ting a negotiated solution Ffor e;am'le, a return to 7ai%anBs 're-declaration statusG" 8y putting its nu lear for es on alert+ ho!ever+ China*s leaders !ould ompel a U.S. president to ma,e a very diffi ult de ision: to a ede to "la ,mail F2+ agreeing to a cease-fire and 'ressuring the 7ai%anese to renounce inde'endenceG, to assume that the threat is a "luff 3a dangerous proposition+ given that ea h Chinese $C8E arries a ity#"usting F+%%%#,iloton !arhead4+ or to stri,e the Chinese missiles 2efore the+ could 2e launched" =o% do #mericaBs gro%ing counterforce ca'a2ilities affect this scenario, $irst, Ameri an nu lear prima y may prevent su h a !ar in the first pla e. China*s leaders understand that their military no! has little hope of defeating U.S. air and naval for es. $f they also re ogni7e that their nu lear arsenal is vulnera"le>and that 'lacing it on alert might trigger a 'reem'tive stri<e> the leaders may on lude that !ar is a no#!in proposition" Second, if a %ar over 7ai%an started an+%a+, U.S. nu lear prima y might help ontain the fighting at the onventional level. 0arly in the risis+ Washington ould 6uietly onvey to 8ei)ing that the United States !ould a t de isively if China put its vulnera"le nu lear arsenal on alert. $inall+, if China threatened to laun h nu lear atta ,s against #mericaBs allies, its territor+, or its forces in #sia, nu lear prima y !ould ma,e a preemptive first stri,e more palata"le to U.S. leaders. Any de ision to atta , China*s $C8E for e+ though+ !ould "e fraught !ith danger" # missile silo might have esca'ed detection" $urthermore, a stri<e on ChinaBs 1A ICBHs %ould leave Bei*ing %ith roughl+ C0 shorter-range nuclear missiles %ith %hich to retaliate against !"S" forces and allies in the region" =o%ever, in the aftermath of a . lean/ disarming stri,e>one that <illed relativel+ fe% Chinese >Ameri an leaders ould redi"ly !arn that a Chinese nu lear response !ould trigger truly devastating onse6uen es+ meaning nu lear atta ,s against a "roader target set, including militar+, government, and 'ossi2l+ even ur2an centers" $n light of !arnings from Chinese defense analysts and from !ithin China*s military that it might use nu lear !eapons to avoid losing Tai!an+ an Ameri an president might feel ompelled to stri,e firs t" In this terri2le circumstance, he or she %ould rea' the 2enefits of the 'ast decadeBs counterforce u'grades" China %ould use nuclear %ea'ons O 7ai%an is an e;istential issue, leads to e;tinction Straits 7imes FSinga'oreG, June 2., 2000, 8o one gains in %ar over 7ai%an 7he !S estimates that China possesses a2out 9% nu lear !arheads that can destroy ma*or Ameri an ities. 8ei)ing also seems prepared to go for the nu lear option" # Chinese militar+ officer disclosed recentl+ that Bei*ing %as considering a revie% of its Knon first useK 'rinci'le regarding nuclear %ea'ons" Ha*or-3eneral 4an Khang6iang, 'resident of the militar+-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the 5oodro% 5ilson International Centre for Scholars in 5ashington that although the government still a2ided 2+ that 'rinci'le, there %ere strong 'ressures from the militar+ to dro' it" =e said militar+ leaders

onsidered the use of nu lear !eapons mandatory if the ountry ris,ed dismem"erment as a result of foreign intervention" 3en Ridge%a+ said that should that ome to pass+ !e !ould see the destru tion of ivilisation. 7here %ould 2e no victors in such a %ar" 5hile the 'ros'ect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Tai!an might seem inconceiva2le, it annot "e ruled out entirel+, for China puts sovereignty a"ove everything else" 3en Ridge%a+ recalled that the 2iggest mista<e the !S made during the Lorean 5ar %as to assess Chinese actions according to the #merican %a+ of thin<ing"

U.S. China !ar is inevita"le

John Hearsheimer, 'rofessor of 'olitical science at !niversit+ of Chicago, #'ril 200C, ChinaBs !n'eaceful Rise,& htt'())so2e<"colorado"edu)Ple2lang)Site)IR200A)4SCI Q202223Mfiles)HearsheimerMchinasQ20un'eacefulQ20rise"'df Can China rise 'eacefull+, H+ ans%er is no" $f China ontinues its impressive e onomi gro!th over the ne;t fe% decades, the United States and China are li,ely to engage in an intense se urity ompetition !ith considera2le potential for !ar. Host of China*s neigh"ors> including India, Ja'an, Singa'ore, South Lorea, Russia, and :ietnam>!ill )oin !ith the United States to ontain China*s po!er. 7o 'redict the future in #sia, one needs a theor+ of international 'olitics that e;'lains ho% rising great 'o%ers are li<el+ to act and ho% other states in the s+stem %ill react to them" 7hat theor+ must 2e logicall+ sound and it must account for the 'ast 2ehavior of rising great 'o%ers" Ey theory of international 'olitics says that the mightiest states attempt to esta"lish hegemony in their region of the !orld !hile ma,ing sure that no rival great po!er dominates another region" 7his theor+, %hich hel's e;'lain !S foreign 'olic+ since the countr+Bs founding, also has im'lications for future relations 2et%een China and the !nited States" 7=6 C1876S7 $1R 4156R #ccording to m+ understanding of international 'olitics, survival is a state*s most important goal+ 2ecause a state cannot 'ursue an+ other goals if it does not survive" The "asi stru ture of the international system for es states on erned a"out their se urity to ompete !ith ea h other for po!er" 7he ultimate goal of ever+ great 'o%er is to ma;imiDe its share of %orld 'o%er and eventuall+ dominate the s+stem" 7he international s+stem has three defining characteristics" $irst, the main a tors are states that operate in anar hy+ !hi h simply means that there is no higher authority a"ove them. Se ond+ all great po!ers have some offensive militar+ apa"ility, %hich means that the+ have the %here%ithal to hurt each other" 7hird, no state an ,no! the intentions of other states !ith ertainty+ es'eciall+ their future intentions" It is sim'l+ im'ossi2le, for e;am'le, to <no% %hat 3erman+ or Ja'anBs intentions %ill 2e to%ard their neigh2ors in 202." $n a !orld !here other states might have malign intentions as !ell as signifi ant offensive apa"ilities+ states tend to fear ea h other. That fear is ompounded "y the fa t that in an anar hi system there is no night !at hman for states to all if trou"le omes ,no ,ing at their doo r" 7herefore, states re ogni7e that the "est !ay to survive in su h a system is to "e as po!erful as possi"le relative to potential rivals" 7he mightier a state is, the less li<el+ it is that another state %ill attac< it" 8o #mericans, for e;am'le, %orr+ that Canada or He;ico %ill attac< the !nited States, 2ecause neither of those countries is 'o%erful enough to contem'late a fight %ith 5ashington" But great 'o%ers do not merel+ strive to 2e the strongest great 'o%er, although that is a %elcome outcome" 7heir ultimate aim is to 2e the hegemon>that is, the onl+ great

'o%er in the s+stem" 5hat e;actl+ does it mean to 2e a hegemon in the modern %orld, It is almost im'ossi2le for an+ state to achieve glo2al hegemon+, 2ecause it is too hard to 'ro*ect and sustain 'o%er around the glo2e and onto the territor+ of distant great 'o%ers" 7he 2est outcome that a state can ho'e for is to 2e a regional hegemon, and thus dominate oneBs o%n geogra'hical area" 7he !nited States has 2een a regional hegemon in the 5estern =emis'here since the late 1A00s" #lthough the !nited States is clearl+ the most 'o%erful state on the 'lanet toda+, it is not a glo2al hegemon" States that gain regional hegemon+ have a further aim( the+ see< to 'revent great 'o%ers in other regions from du'licating their feat" 'egional hege# mons do not !ant peers. $nstead+ they !ant to ,eep other regions divided among several great 'o%ers, so that these states !ill ompete %ith each other and 2e una2le to focus on them" In sum, my theory says that the ideal situation for any great po!er is to "e the only regional hegemon in the !orld. 7=6 #H6RIC#8 =636H18 # 2rief loo< at the histor+ of #merican foreign 'olic+ illustrates the e;'lanator+ 'o%er of this theor+" 5hen the !nited States %on its inde'endence from Britain in 1/A3, it %as a small and %ea< countr+ com'rised of 13 states strung along the #tlantic sea2oard" 7he ne% countr+ %as surrounded 2+ the British and S'anish em'ires and much of the territor+ 2et%een the #''alachian Hountains and the Hississi''i River %as controlled 2+ hostile 8ative #merican tri2es" It %as a dangerous, threat-filled environment" 1ver the course of the ne;t 11. +ears, #merican 'olic+ ma<ers of all stri'es %or<ed assiduousl+ to turn the !nited States into a regional hegemon" 7he+ e;'anded #mericaBs 2oundaries from the #tlantic to the 4acific oceans as 'art of a 'olic+ commonl+ referred to as Hanifest Eestin+"& 7he !nited States fought %ars against He;ico and various 8ative #merican tri2es and too< huge chun<s of land from them" 7he nation 2ecame an e;'ansionist 'o%er of the first order" #s Senator =enr+ Ca2ot 9odge 'ut it, the !nited States had a record of con?uest, coloniDation, and territorial e;'ansion une?ualled 2+ an+ 'eo'le in the nineteenth centur+"& #merican 'olic+ ma<ers in that centur+ %ere not *ust concerned %ith turning the !nited States into a 'o%erful territorial state" 7he+ %ere also determined to 'ush the 6uro'ean great 'o%ers out of the 5estern =emis'here and ma<e it clear to them that the+ %ere not %elcome 2ac<" 7his 'olic+, <no%n as the Honroe Eoctrine, %as laid out for the first time in 1A23 2+ 4resident James Honroe in his annual message to Congress" B+ 1A0A, the last 6uro'ean em'ire in the #mericas had colla'sed and the !nited States had 2ecome the first regional hegemon in modern histor+" =o%ever, a great 'o%erBs %or< is not done once it achieves regional hegemon+" It then must ma<e sure that no other great 'o%er follo%s suit and dominates its area of the %orld" ;uring the t!entieth entury+ there !ere four great po!ers that had the apa"ility to ma,e a run at regional hegemony: Im'erial 3erman+ F1000O 101AG, Im'erial Ja'an F1031O104.G, 8aDi 3erman+ F1033O104.G, and the Soviet !nion during the cold %ar F104.O10A0G" 8ot sur'risingl+, ea h tried to mat h !hat the United States had a hieved in the 5estern =emis'here in the nineteenth centur+" =o% did the !nited States react, In each case, it played a ,ey role in defeating and dismantling those aspiring hegemons" 7he !nited States entered 5orld 5ar I in #'ril 101/ %hen Im'erial 3erman+ loo<ed li<e it %ould %in the %ar and rule 6uro'e" #merican troo's 'la+ed a critical role in ti''ing the 2alance against the Laiserreich, %hich colla'sed in 8ovem2er 101A" In the earl+ 1040s, 4resident $ran<lin Eelano Roosevelt %ent to great lengths to maneuver the !nited States into 5orld 5ar II to th%art Ja'anBs am2itions in #sia and es'eciall+ 3erman+Bs am2itions in 6uro'e" Euring the %ar, the !nited States hel'ed destro+

2oth #;is 'o%ers" #nd after 104., #merican 'olic+ ma<ers made certain that 3erman+ and Ja'an remained militaril+ %ea<" $inall+, during the cold %ar, the !nited States steadfastl+ %or<ed to 'revent the Soviet !nion from dominating 6urasia, and in the late 10A0s hel'ed relegate its em'ire to the scra' hea' of histor+" Shortl+ after the cold %ar ended, the first Bush administrationBs Eefense 3uidance& of 1002, %hich %as lea<ed to the 'ress, 2oldl+ stated that the !nited States %as no% the most 'o%erful state in the %orld 2+ far and it 'lanned to remain in that e;alted 'osition" In other %ords, the !nited States %ould not tolerate a 'eer com'etitor" 7hat same message %as re'eated in the famous 8ational Securit+ Strateg+& issued 2+ the second Bush administration in 1cto2er 2002" 7here %as much criticism of this document, es'eciall+ its claims a2out 'reem'tive %ar"& But hardl+ a %ord of 'rotest %as raised a2out the assertion that the !nited States should chec< rising 'o%ers and maintain its commanding 'osition in the glo2al 2alance of 'o%er" 7he 2ottom line is that the !nited States>for sound strategic reasons>%or<ed hard for more than a centur+ to gain hegemon+ in the 5estern =emis'here" #fter achieving regional dominance, it has gone to great lengths to 'revent other great 'o%ers from controlling either #sia or 6uro'e" 5hat are the im'lications of #mericaBs 'ast 2ehavior for the rise of China, In short, ho% is China li<el+ to 2ehave as it gro%s more 'o%erful, #nd ho% are the !nited States and the other states in #sia li<el+ to react to a might+ China, 4R6EIC7I83 C=I8#BS $!7!R6 China is li,ely to try to dominate Asia the !ay the United States dominates the Western -emisphere. Spe ifi ally+ China !ill see, to maximi7e the po!er gap "et!een itself and its neigh"ors + espe ially Lapan and 'ussia. China !ill !ant to ma,e sure that it is so po!erful that no state in Asia has the !here!ithal to threaten it" It is unli<el+ that China %ill 'ursue militar+ su'eriorit+ so that it can go on a ram'age and con?uer other #sian countries, although that is al%a+s 'ossi2le" Instead, it is more li,ely that China !ill !ant to di tate the "oundaries of a epta"le "ehavior to neigh"oring ountries, much the %a+ the !nited States ma<es it clear to other states in the #mericas that it is the 2oss" Gaining regional hegemony, I might add, is pro"a"ly the only !ay that China !ill get Tai!an "a ,. An in reasingly po!erful China is also li,ely to try to push the United States out of Asia + much the %a+ the !nited States 'ushed the 6uro'ean great 'o%ers out of the 5estern =emis'here" 5e should e;'ect China to come u' %ith its o%n version of the Honroe Eoctrine, as Ja'an did in the 1030s" 7hese 'olic+ goals ma<e good strategic sense for China" Bei*ing should %ant a militaril+ %ea< Ja'an and Russia as its neigh2ors, *ust as the !nited States 'refers a militaril+ %ea< Canada and He;ico on its 2orders" 5hat state in its right mind %ould %ant other 'o%erful states located in its region, Host Chinese surel+ remem2er %hat ha''ened in the 'ast centur+ %hen Ja'an %as 'o%erful and China %as %ea<" In the anarchic %orld of international 'olitics, it is 2etter to 2e 3odDilla than Bam2i" $urthermore, %h+ %ould a 'o%erful China acce't !S militar+ forces o'erating in its 2ac<+ard, #merican 'olic+ ma<ers, after all, 2ecome a'o'lectic %hen other great 'o%ers send militar+ forces into the 5estern =emis'here" 7hose foreign forces are invaria2l+ seen as a 'otential threat to #merican securit+" 7he same logic should a''l+ to China" 5h+ %ould China feel safe %ith !S forces de'lo+ed on its doorste', $ollo%ing the logic of the Honroe Eoctrine, %ould not ChinaBs securit+ 2e 2etter served 2+ 'ushing the #merican militar+ out of #sia, 5h+ should %e e;'ect China to act an+ differentl+ from ho% the !nited States did, Is Bei*ing more 'rinci'led than 5ashington, Hore ethical, 9ess nationalistic, 9ess concerned a2out survival, China is none of these things, of

course, %hich is %h+ it is li<el+ to imitate the !nited States and attem't to 2ecome a regional hegemon" 7R1!B96 #=6#E $t is lear from the histori al re ord ho! Ameri an poli y ma,ers !ill rea t if China attempts to dominate Asia. The United States does not tolerate peer ompetitors. #s it demonstrated in the t%entieth centur+, it is determined to remain the !orld*s only regional hegemon. Therefore+ the United States an "e expe ted to go to great lengths to ontain China and ultimately !ea,en it to the point !here it is no longer apa"le of ruling the roost in Asia. $n essen e+ Ameri a is li,ely to "ehave to!ard China mu h the !ay it "ehaved to!ard the Soviet Union during the old !ar. China*s neigh"ors are ertain to fear its rise as !ell+ and they too !ill do !hatever they an to prevent the Chinese from a hieving regional hegemony. $ndeed+ there is already su"stantial eviden e that ountries li,e $ndia+ Lapan+ and 'ussia+ as !ell as smaller po!ers li,e Singapore+ South Iorea+ and 2ietnam+ are !orried a"out China*s as endan y and are loo,ing for !ays to ontain it. $n the end+ they !ill )oin an Ameri an#led "alan ing oalition to he , China*s rise+ mu h the !ay 8ritain+ Fran e+ Germany+ $taly+ Lapan+ and even China )oined for es !ith the United States to ontain the Soviet Union during the old !ar. Finally+ given Tai!an*s strategi importan e for ontrolling the sea lanes in 0ast Asia+ it is hard to imagine the United States+ as !ell as Lapan+ allo!ing China to ontrol that large island. $n fa t+ Tai!an is li,ely to "e an important player in the anti#China "alan ing oalition+ !hi h is ertain to infuriate China and fuel the se urity ompetition "et!een 8ei)ing and Washington. The pi ture $ have painted of !hat is li,ely to happen if China ontinues its rise is not a pretty one. $ a tually find it ategori ally depressing and !ish that $ ould tell a more optimisti story a"out the future. 8ut the fa t is that international politi s is a nasty and dangerous "usiness+ and no amount of good!ill an ameliorate the intense se urity ompetition that sets in !hen an aspiring hegemon appears in 0urasia. That is the tragedy of great po!er politi s.

;eterren e and ta"oo solves all other s enarios

3eorge 4er<ovich, International Commission on 8uclear 8on-'roliferation and Eisarmament, Ha+ 2000, 6;tended Eeterrence 1n 7he 5a+ 7o # 8uclear $ree 5orld,& International Commission on 8uclear 8on-'roliferation and Eisarmament 7he realit+ toda+ is that the ta"oo against using nu lear !eapons has "e ome so strong, es'eciall+ in democracies, that the only threat against !hi h it is )ustifia"le and therefore redi"le to use these !eapons is one !here the survival of the U.S. or an ally is learly )eopardi7ed" Ret, %ith the 'ossi2le e;ce'tion of 8orth Lorea %hose leadershi' could 2e imagined to use nuclear %ea'ons against Ja'an or South Lorea if its o%n survival %ere threatened, no other state poses a realisti threat to the national survival of !"S" allies in 6uro'e or 6ast #sia" 'ussia does not have the intention or apa"ility to sustain an invasion of the ne! &AT( states+ let alone threaten their survival. 'ussia could destro+ an+ state !ith its nu lear !eapons+ "ut 2ecause this, more than an+ other action, !ould 'racticall+ guarantee nu lear retaliation, Russia !ould not run the ris,. There is simply nothing important enough that 'ussia !ould !ant in an+ of the 8#71 states to merit su h ris, ta,ing. China has no interest and inade6uate apa"ilities to ta,e mainland Lapanese territory or other!ise threaten it militarily. It might 'ose

militar+ threats to Ja'anese 'ositions regarding southern islands, 2ut the !"S" and China are not going to %age nuclear %ar over such islands, and Ja'anese officials and 'u2lic cannot realisticall+ e;'ect nuclear deterrence to o'erate here" Bei*ing does continue to increase its ca'a2ilities to deter 7ai%an from declaring inde'endence and the !"S" from defending 7ai%an in such a scenario, 2ut the suret+ of !"S" securit+ assurances to 7ai%an %ould 2e greater, not less, if neither China nor the !"S" 'ossessed nuclear %ea'ons" $or the foreseea2le future China %ould 2e highl+ unli<el+ to use nuclear %ea'ons on 7ai%anese targets, as the Chinese goal is to integrate 7ai%anese into China, not to <ill them" China !ould !ish to deter U.S. intervention "y threatening the Ameri an fleet, 'erha's !ith nu lear !eapons+ and then deterring U.S. es alation against the Chinese homeland, "y holding U.S. ities at ris,. 8ut the trigger of nu lear use in these scenarios !ould "e a move "y Tai!an to a hieve independen e. The U.S. has no o"ligation to fight for Tai!anese independen e if China has not ommitted aggression against 7ai%an first"

1AC ST0E
Contention 9 is ST0E ST0E graduates are lo! no! Charlie 8all, a re'orter of the 8e% Scientist, <#9%-11, Eo %e reall+ need more
science graduates,& 8e% Scientists, htt'())%%%"ne%scientist"com)2logs)2ig%ide%orld)2011)0/)do-%e-reall+-need-morescience-graduates"html 1ne thing everyone seems to agree on is that !e need more s ien e graduates Fand here $ mean science, technolog+, engineering and maths graduates, a grou' usuall+ a22reviated to ST0EG" There are not enough people ta,ing s ien e degrees and something must 2e done. 7he e;cellent 'eo'le at 7each $irst, an organisation that 'laces graduates in challenging !L
schools, are the latest to %ade into the de2ate %ith their ne% re'ort, #ddressing the S76H Challenge" 7his calls for more science teachers so %e can 2etter teach +oung 'eo'le science so more choose to stud+ the su2*ects at universit+" 7he CBI, the 2usiness lo22+ing organisation, recentl+ issued their 2011 6ducation and S<ills surve+ F4E$G" 1f CBI mem2ers ?uestioned, GF per ent felt the num"er and 6uality of

ST0E graduates should "e a priority for universities.

7he !L government even has a S76H strateg+, %hich commits us to increasing the num2er of +oung 'eo'le stud+ing science su2*ects 'ost-1C Kto meet em'lo+er needsK" Res, !e need more s ien e graduates. ;efinitely "

Core high te h industries are moving offshore to a ess foreign talent pools # devastates US innovation and te h leadership ;eal"oo,, Se'tem2er /, 9%1%, 1nce a E+namo, the 7ech Sector Is Slo% to
=ire& htt'())deal2oo<"n+times"com)2010)00)0/)once-a-d+namo-the-tech-sector-is-slo%-tohire),sc'-2Is?-1nceQ20aQ20E+namo,Q20theQ207echQ20SectorQ20IsQ20Slo% Q20toQ20=ireIst-cse
$or +ears the technolog+ sector has 2een considered the most d+namic, 'romising and glo2all+ envied industr+ in the !nited States" It esca'ed the recession relativel+ unscathed, and 'rofits this +ear have 2een soaring, Catherine Ram'ell %rites in 7he 8e% Ror< 7imes" But as the nation struggles to put people "a , to

!or,+ even high#te h ompanies have "een slo! to hire+ a sign of )ust ho! diffi ult it !ill "e to address persistently high )o"lessne ss" 5hile the la2or re'ort
released last %ee< sho%ing #ugust figures 'rovided mildl+ 'ositive ne%s on 'rivate-sector hiring, the unemployment rate !as H.J per ent. 7he disa''ointing hiring trend raises ?uestions a2out %hether the tech industr+ can hel' 'o%er a recover+ and sustain #merican *o2 gro%th in the ne;t decade and 2e+ond" Its tentativeness has prompted e onomists to as, .$f high te h isn*t

hiring+ !ho !illM/ We are tal,ing a"out people !ith very parti ular+ advan ed s,ills out there !ho are at this point )ust not needed anymore+&
sa+s Bart van #r<, chief economist at the Conference Board, a 2usiness and economic research organiDation" 0ven in this se tor+ there is tremendous inse urity./ 3overnment la2or re'orts released this +ear, including the most recent one, 'resent a ta2leau of shrin<ing o''ortunities in high-s<ill fields"

Lo" gro!th in fields li,e omputer systems design and $nternet pu"lishing has "een slo! in the last year" 6m'lo+ment in areas li<e data 'rocessing and soft%are 'u2lishing
has actuall+ fallen" #dditionall+, com'uter scientists, s+stems anal+sts and com'uter 'rogrammers all had unem'lo+ment rates of around C 'ercent in the second ?uarter of this +ear"

0mpiri ally+ innovation and ne! te hnology is ,ey to e onomi gro!th 4at Choate, 'rofessor at 3eorge 5ashington !niversit+Js 3raduate School of 4u2lic Hanagement, 4-9%%5, =ot 4ro'ert+( 7he Stealing of Ideas in an #ge of
3lo2aliDation" ' 44-4. In retros'ect, the logical ?uestion is *ust ho% im'ortant te hnologi al advan es %ere to Ameri aNs development over the 'ast t%o centuries" 7he ans%er is that the+ !ere vital" 7he cotton gin, interchangea2le 'arts, the telegra'h, electricit+ for the home and factor+, mass 'roduction techni?ues, the air'lane, and the television, among millions of innovations+ ea h profoundly hanged the nature of !or, and life, not onl+ in the !nited States 2ut throughout the %orld" #nd %hile t%o centuries seems to 2e a long time, it is short in the conte;t of %orld histor+" Hore than .0,000 #mericans no% living, those 100 +ears and older, have 2een here for half that time, e;'eriencing the 2enefits and costs created 2+ the #merican s+stem of innovation" But %e do not have to rel+ %holl+ on anecdotes" 6conomists have attem'ted to measure the effects of technolog+ on the #merican econom+" 7he studies are distinguished 2+ the use of differing techni?ues, different 'eriods, and different 'arameters" 7he constant in most of these studies is that each used three 2asic factors-la2or, ca'ital, and technolog+-a''ortioning to each its relative contri2ution" &o"el Pri7e !inner 'o"ert Solo! of -arvard !niversit+ found in his %or< that te hnologi al advan ement, cou'led %ith increased human ca'ital im'rovements in the la2or force, a ounted for "et!een G% and H% per ent of the annual produ tivity in rease in the U.S. e onomy "et!een 1H%H and 10FH" 6d%ard ;ennison of George Washington University on luded that in the 'eriod 1H9H#1HG9 more than t!o#thirds of the 'roductivit+ gains !ere due to advan es in s ien e and te hnolog+"

That*s ,ey to avoid glo"al onfli ts 6arl Tilford, 4hE in histor+ from 3eorge 5ashington !niversit+ and served for
thirt+-t%o +ears as a militar+ officer and anal+st %ith the #ir $orce and #rm+, 9%%G, Critical Hass( 6conomic 9eadershi' or Eictatorshi',& 7he Cedarto%n Standard, 9e;is Could it ha''en again, 8ourgeois demo ra y re6uires a vi"rant apitalist system. 5ithout it, the role of the individual shrin<s as government e;'ands" #t the ver+ least, the dimensions of the !"S" government economic intervention %ill foster a gro%th in 2ureaucrac+ to administer the multi-faceted 'rograms necessar+ for im'lementation" Bureaucracies, once esta2lished, inevita2l+ 2ecome self-serving and self-'er'etuating" 5ill this lead to socialism& as some conservative economic 'rognosticators suggest, 4erha's" But so is the 'ossi2ilit+ of dictatorshi'" $f the Ameri an e onomy ollapses+ espe ially in !artime+ there remains that possi"ility. And if that happens the Ameri an demo rati era may "e over" $f the !orld e onomies ollapse+ totalitarianism !ill almost certainl+ return to 'ussia+ !hi h already is !ell along that path in an+ event" Fragile demo ra ies in South Ameri a and 0astern 0urope ould rum"le. A glo"al e onomi ollapse !ill also in rease the han e of glo"al onfli t. As e onomi systems shut do!n+ so !ill the distri"ution systems for resour es li,e petroleum and food. It is certainl+ %ithin the realm of 'ossi2ilit+ that nations per eiving themselves in peril !ill+ if they have the military apa"ility+ use for e+ )ust as Lapan and &a7i Germany did in the mid-to-late

1030s" 6ver+ nation in the %orld needs access to food and %ater" Industrial nations >the %orld 'o%ers of 8orth #merica, 6uro'e, and #sia>need access to energ+" When the !orld e onomy runs smoothly+ re ipro al trade meets these needs. $f the !orld e onomy ollapses+ the use of military for e "e omes a more li,ely alternative" #nd given the increasingl+ ra'id rate at %hich %orld affairs moveN the !orld ould devolve to that point very 6ui ,ly.

Foreign la"or dependen e rushes ;(; la"s O iti7enship is ne essary Richard Stephens, Senior :4, =uman Resources and #dministration at Boeing and Chair of the #eros'ace Industries #ssociation, 2-4- 9%1%, 7estimon+ to the
=ouse Science and 7echnolog+ Committee,& htt'())%%%"aiaaeros'ace"org)assets)Ste'hensQ205rittenQ207estimon+Q202-4-2010F1G"'df 5e are 'roud to 2e among those industries that have 'laced the !nited States in its leadershi' role in technolog+, innovation and the a2ilit+ to solve highl+ com'le; 'ro2lems" But as 2oth the 'ace of innovation and the need for 'ro2lem-solving accelerate glo2all+, the !nited States faces a com'etitive ga' that %e can close onl+ if more of our +oung 'eo'le 'ursue careers in the gro%ing fields of S76H disci'lines" In m+ industr+, the #viation 5ee< 2000 5or<force Stud+ Fconducted in coo'eration %ith the #eros'ace Industries #ssociation, #merican Institute of #eronautics I #stronautics, and the 8ational Eefense Industries #ssociationG indicates aeros'ace com'anies that are hiring need s+stems engineers, aeros'ace engineers, mechanical engineers, 'rogramming)soft%are engineers and 'rogram managers" 7oda+, across the aeros'ace industr+, the average age of the %or<force continues to increase, and e;'ectations are that a''ro;imatel+ 20 'ercent of our current technical talent %ill 2e eligi2le to retire %ithin 3 the ne;t three +ears" #s a result, in the ver+ near future, our com'anies and our nationBs aeros'ace 'rograms %ill need tens of thousands of engineers>in addition to those *oining the %or<force toda+" 7hese are 2ecoming difficult *o2s to fill not 2ecause there is a la2or shortage 2ut 2ecause there is a s<ills shortage( 1ur industr+ needs more innovative +oung scientists, technologists, engineers, and mathematicians to re'lace our dis'ro'ortionatel+ large Fcom'ared to the total !"S" %or<forceG 'o'ulation of Ba2+ Boomers as the+ retire" #t the same time that retirements are increasing, the num2er of #merican %or<ers %ith S76H degrees is declining, as the 8ational Science Board 'ointed out in 200A" 7his s<ills shortage is a glo2al concern across the 2oard in all high-tech sectors>'u2lic as %ell as 'rivate" But it is es'eciall+ acute in the !"S" defense industr+ 2ecause man+ government programs arry se urity re6uirements that an "e fulfilled onl+ "y !or,ers !ho are U.S. iti7ens" #ccording to the #viation 5ee< 2000 5or<force Stud+, of the positions open in the aerospa e and defense industry in 2000, JJ.5 per ent re?uired U.S. iti7enship" Ret onl+ . 'ercent of !"S" 2achelorBs degrees are in engineering, com'ared %ith 20 'ercent in #sia, for e;am'le" Hean%hile, in 200/, foreign students received 4 'ercent of science and engineering 2achelorBs degrees, 24 'ercent of science and engineering masterBs degrees, and 33 'ercent of science and engineering doctoral degrees a%arded in the !nited States, according to the 8ational Science Board" #nd most foreign students !ho earn undergraduate and graduate degrees from U.S. institutions are not eligi"le for U.S. se urity learan es. Clearl+, the throughput of our U.S. ST0E pipeline arries serious impli ations for our national se urity+ our ompetitiveness as a nation+ and our defense industrial "ase. 7hree <e+ actions are necessar+

to ensure that %e have enough scientists and engineers to meet future needs( 1G Successfull+ graduate all For at least a lot more ofG those %ho enter colleges and universitiesN 2G 6nsure colleges and universities 'roduce enough ?ualified secondar+ teachers for science, math and technolog+N and 3G Hotivate our +outh to 'ursue S76H-related careers that 'rovide great 'a+, deliver on the 'romise of challenging and fun %or<, and create the future"

;(; la"s ,ey to y"er se urity Sachar+ 1emnios, Eirect Eefense Research and 6ngineering for the E1E, 3-239%1%, 7estimon+( Before the !nited Staets =ouse of Re'resentatives Committee
on #rmed Services,& htt's())hsdl"org),vie%Idoc-110/43Icoll-'u2lic
develo'ment and transition, and 4re'are for an !ncertain $uture In 're'aring for an uncertain future, a com'rehensive strateg+ for defense research and engineering efforts 2ecomes ever more critical" Investments in 2asic and a''lied science, technolog+

in#house resear h apa"ility are critical ena"lers of te hnologi al superiority+ and 2+ e;tension, operational advantage" E#R4# is central
'ro*ects have 2een the foundation of man+ ca'a2ilities and ma*or %ea'ons s+stems"

to our entire SI7 effort" It is the innovation engine of the Ee'artment, %ith the latitude to attract the 2est scientific talent, and engage them on some of our most challenging 'ro2lems" 7he high 'a+off technologies from E#R4#

The a"ility to loo, ahead of the te hnology urve to identify future hallenges and high'a+off research areas that may not +et "e re ogni7ed as riti al "y the larger defense ommunity, and %hich %ill ena2le future %arfighter ca'a2ilities, is a necessit+" In this vein, the goal of ;;'P0 is to serve as an un"iased "ro,er in setting the pa e and priorities for resear h and engineering efforts a ross the ;epartment in order
to create o'tions to sha'e the future, rather than react to it" Some e;am'les of EERI6 research areas are listed 2elo%" #ir2orne 9aser F#B9G #n area %here %e have demonstrated 2rea<through advances is in air2orne laser technologies" In Januar+ of this +ear, the Hissile Eefense #genc+ demonstrated the first ever trac<ing and lo% 'o%er laser engagement of a 2oost 'hase target in the 'acific missile range from the /4/ #ir2orne 9aser F#B9G" In $e2ruar+ this 'rogram demonstrated a full 'o%er 2oost 'hase interce't" 7o continue the develo'ment of future air2orne laser conce'ts and ca'a2ilities, the #B9 ma+ serve as an air2orne directed energ+ test-2ed for the Ee'artment de'endent on the results of an ongoing stud+ directed 2+ Secretar+ 3ates" =uman, Social, Cultural, and Behavioral F=SCBG Hodeling 7he =uman Social Culture Behavior F=SCBG Hodeling 'rogram utiliDes soft 'o%er& derived from leveraging the soft sciences to 'rovide innovative solutions" 7he 'rogramBs ultimate goal is to 'ut model-2ased tools in the hands of EoE 'ersonnel su''orting intelligence anal+sis, o'erations anal+sis and decisionma<ing, training, and *oint e;'erimentation" 7he =SCB Hodeling 'rogram has engaged e;tensivel+ %ith C1C1Hs and other o'erational users, leading to direct su''ort to our 5arfighters in #fghanistan and other o'erational o2*ectives" 4rogram investment has su''orted de'lo+ed users %ith greatl+ enhanced visualiDation ca'a2ilities, creation of a toolset to incor'orate =SCB modeling factors into cam'aign 'lanning for !"S" #rm+ 7raining and Eoctrine Command F7R#E1CG and !"S" #rm+ S'ecial 1'erations Command F!S#S1CG, and tools for determining regional sta2ilit+" Some current =SCB modeling 'ro*ects are( 7he !niversit+ of ChicagoBs Hodeling Strategic Conte;ts, %hich su''orts the anal+sis of international conflicts 2+ 'roviding rich models of strategic conte;tN 6astern Hichigan !niversit+Bs :ariations in Islamic $undamentalism, designed to understand the factors influencing religious e;tremism and su''ort for secular 'olitics, gender e?ualit+, and national identit+N 9os #lamos 8ational 9a2orator+Bs Simulation of 1'ium Su''l+ Chain, %hich is develo'ing models of ada'tive decision-ma<ing in illicit cross-2order su''l+ chainsN and 7R#E1Cs Irregular 5arfare #nal+tic Ca'a2ilities 'ro*ect develo'ing methods, models, and tools FHH7G re'resenting the Irregular 5arfare FI5G o'erational environment" Hedical RIE and the 5ounded 5arrior 4rogram #2out 1A months ago, the Ee'artment conducted an e;tensive revie% of medical research and develo'ment" 7his revie% used the Joint $orce =ealth 4rotection Conce't of 1'erations to focus on <e+ 5ounded 5arrior issues including 7raumatic Brain In*ur+ F7BIG, 4ost 7raumatic Stress Eisorder F47SEG, 'rosthetics, and e+e in*ur+" #s a result funding for this initiative %as increased 2+ nearl+ @.00 million 'er +ear in the 2ase Eefense =ealth 4rogram 2udget in $R 2010>a commitment that continues through $R 2011 and 2e+ond" 7his initiative is ma<ing remar<a2le 'rogress in such areas as understanding and mitigating 2rain in*ur+ and develo'ing advanced 'rosthetics that restore greater functionalit+ to our 2rave %arriors" 7he Ee'artmentJs medical RIE activities are centered on advancing the state of medical science, technologies, and 'ractices in those areas of most 'ressing need to toda+Js 2attlefield e;'erience" 7he Ee'artmentBs ma*or contri2utors to advancing militar+ medicine are the Eefense =ealth 4rogram, E#R4#, #rm+ and 8av+" 7hrough the #rmed Services Biomedical Research 6valuation and Hanagement F#SBR6HG Committee, co-chaired 2+ EERI6 and the #ssistant Secretar+ of EefenseF=ealth #ffairsG/, the Ee'artment ensures coordination and colla2oration across the organiDations contri2uting to the 'rogram" $or $R 2011, the 'rogram %ill continue to have ma*or investment focus in ten areas %hich include( 's+chological health, traumatic 2rain in*ur+, 'rosthetics and reha2ilitation, restorative e+e-care, 'ol+-trauma, medical radio2iolog+, medical information s+stems, medical training s+stems, and infectious diseases" Some e;am'les of ne% %ounded %arrior efforts are( three Research Consortia for the stud+ of the 'revention, diagnosis and treatment of 7BI)47SEN t%o clinical trials on face reconstructionN innovations in 'hotomedicine

technolog+ for e+e in*ur+ and %ound infection controlN initiation of 'ilot 'rograms to e;change health data %ith the !S Ee'artment of :eterans #ffairs and 'rivate health care s+stemsN initiatives 2+ the HI7 Institute for Soldier 8anotechnolog+ to ma' 2rain activit+ %ith var+ing sensor+ and motor stimuliN regenerative medicine initiatives aimed at restoring lim2 and organ functionN investigation of the intersection of the 'h+sics of 2last and the neuro2iolog+ of 2rain in*ur+ in 2last environmentsN and develo'ment of im'roved control and fit of 'rosthetic arm devices" C+2er 1'erations Research Ee'ut+ Secretar+ of Eefense 9+nn recentl+ highlighted the critical nature of the c+2ers'ace domain 2+ stating, 7he Eefense Ee'artment has formall+ recogniDed c+2ers'ace for %hat it is - a domain similar to land, sea, air and s'ace" # domain that %e de'end u'on and must 'rotect"& A $urthermore, the TER identifies the need to im'rove our ca'a2ilities to counter threats in c+2ers'ace" 1ur militar+ forces re?uire resilient, relia2le net%or<s to conduct effective o'erations" The num"er and sophisti ation of

y"er threats are rapidly gro!ing, and the urgen y and riti ality of improving y"er se urity has "e ome a national se urity priority " Han+ studies
have documented the threats and the inade?uac+ of current a''roaches to the increasingl+ so'histicated adversaries" 7he 'ro2lem is com'le; and as+mmetric -- attac<ers often need to find *ust one vulnera2ilit+ %hile the defenders must currentl+ defend ever+%here %ith multi'le a''roaches" In order to meet the challenge of

defending against and defeating the threat, ne! thin,ing and ne% resear h ideas are needed to "uild a more resilient and trust!orthy y"erspa e" 1ur c+2er
defenses must 'rovide %orld%ide o'erational mission assurance during c+2er attac<s" C+2er net%or< o'erations are an emerging %arfare area and to succeed, our y"er defenses re6uire sustained,

innovative resear h to address the onstantly hanging threats" EERI6 has

advocated, driven, and coordinated efforts across the EoE for increased SI7 in c+2er securit+ to develo' enduring solutions to secure future militar+ information s+stems" 1ver the 'ast fe% +ears EERI6 has 2rought together the EoE c+2er research communit+ to determine the EoE c+2er SI7 needs and 'riorities" 9ast summer, in res'onse to the 4residentBs C+2ers'ace 4olic+ Revie%, the Intelligence #dvanced Research 4ro*ects #ctivit+ FI#R4#G Eirector, Er" 9isa 4orter, and I launched a *oint stud+ in this area to identif+ high-'a+off technolog+ initiatives" 7his stud+, %hich %as conducted %ith leading outside e;'erts in the c+2er securit+ communit+, identified <e+ areas of ne% research" 7hese technolog+ nuggets included ne% research to ena2le net%or<s to o'erate through attac<s, to esta2lish securit+ architectures for the man+ ne% mo2ile net%or< devices, and to ma<e the s+stems on our net%or<s more difficult to find and target" 1ther ne% technolog+ a''roaches %ere identified in virtualiDation to isolate untrusted 'rograms, closed-loo' soft%are re'air, and a ne% reference model for trusted com'uting" 7his and other studies, 2oth classified and unclassified, have led to the develo'ment of a EERI6 ne% start 'rogram in C+2er Securit+ #''lied Research and #dvanced Eevelo'ment" 7he 4BR-11contains t%o ne%, 'ro'osed EERI6 'rogram elements to initiate a @200 million 'rogram over . +ears in a''lied research and advanced technolog+ develo'ment for full s'ectrum com'uter net%or< o'erations FC81G" 7his 'rogram %ill fund and transition the ne% research results" #s the focus of the 'rogram, %e have identified novel ideas to address the urgent SI7 ga's in 're'aring for c+2er conflict" 7he research 'ro2lems are com'le; and *oint, re?uiring the com2ined efforts of the Services and agencies" EERI6 has develo'ed governance a''roaches that %ill insure a communit+-%ide a''roach" 7he EERI6 s'onsored research %ill focus on develo'ing ne% ca'a2ilities to(harden <e+ net%or< com'onentsN increase the militar+Js a2ilit+ to fight and survive during c+2er attac<sN disru't nation-state level attac< 'lanning and e;ecutionN measure the state of c+2er securit+N and e;'lore and e;'loit ne% ideals in c+2er %arfare" 7hrough SI7 investment in these areas, ;;'P0 !ill develop options for future apa"ilities to redu e

vulnera"ilities, redu e atta , onse6uen es, and redu e the threat from 'otential adversaries" 5hile the details cannot 2e discussed in this forum, mem2ers of m+ staff have activel+
engaged %ith +our Committee staff to descri2e the initial and ultimate 'lans for this 'rogram" 5e are committed to maintaining this visi2ilit+" #s 'art of the Com'rehensive 8ational C+2ersecurit+ Initiative, E#R4# is develo'ing the 'rotot+'e 8ational C+2er Range F8CRG" 7he 8ational C+2er Range is envisioned to 2e a scientificall+ rigorous and realistic c+2er testing 'latform" 7he 8CR is intended to 2ecome a national resource for e;'erimentation and testing of technolog+ for 2oth unclassified and classified c+2er 'rograms ena2ling lea'-ahead advances in the !S c+2er ca'a2ilit+" !'on com'letion, E#R4# intends to transition this ca'a2ilit+ to 2roader use" Eiscussion of the transition strateg+ is ongoing" 7he EERI6 staff has also 'la+ed leading roles in the federal c+2er securit+ SI7 'lanning and coordination" ;o; la"oratories are !or,ing !ith their ivilian ounterparts to

support national efforts to se ure y"erspa e " 7hese efforts contri2uted to the 4residentBs
C+2ers'ace 4olic+ Revie%, the 8ational C+2er 9ea'-Rear Summit, and the ongoing develo'ment of a federal c+2er securit+ research and develo'ment 'lan" EERI6 has facilitated coordination and colla2oration across the Services, E#R4# and 8S# 2+ leading Steering Councils for 2oth C+2er Securit+ and Com'uter 8et%or< 1'erations SI7" EERI6 'lans to use these grou's as a mechanism to dra% from technical resources across the entire Ee'artment" Coordination %ithin these grou's %ill ensure the Service la2oratories, agencies, and 'artners e;ecuting the 'rogram %or< colla2orativel+ to develo' a ro2ust 'ortfolio of 'otential solutions to the large and com'le; 'ro2lem of securing our net%or<s and information s+stems" 9oo<ing for%ard, EERI6 %ill continue its facilitation role %ith other federal de'artments, agencies and international 'artners to more full+ address the c+2er securit+ and information assurance challenges"

Per eption of !ea, US y"er defense undermines deterren e O auses nu,e !ar 3eneral 6ugene 6" -a"iger, !S#$, commander in chief, !nited States Strategic Command, 1ffutt #ir $orce Base FRet"G, 2-1-9%1%, CRB6R5#R$#R6 #8E
CRB6R76RR1RISH( 7=6 866E $1R # 865 !"S" S7R#763IC #44R1#C=&, htt'())c+2ersecureinstitute"org)docs)%hite'a'ers)=a2igerM2M1M10"'df The potential that an enemy might use a y"eratta , to soften 'h+sical defenses+ in rease the gravity of harms from ,ineti atta ,s+ or "oth+ significantl+ in reases the 'otential harms from a y"eratta ," Consider the gravity of the threat and ris, if an enemy, rightl+ or %rongl+, "elieved that it ould use a y"eratta , to degrade our strategi !eapons apa"ilities . Su h an enemy might "e onvin ed that it ould !in a !arD onventional or even nu learDagainst the United States" 7he effect of this !ould 2e to undermine our deterren eQ"ased defenses+ ma,ing us significantl+ more at ris, of a ma)or !ar.

S76H leadershi' is <e+ to heg

2ergano 1% UEan :ergano, %riter, BS from 4enn State in aeros'ace engineer, %or<ed at 8#S#Bs 9angle+ Research Center, H# from 35! in science 'olic+" !S# 7oda+, $e2 2. 2010( !"S" science and engineering leadershi' facing foreign foes& accessed June 24, 2011 from htt'())content"usatoda+"com)communities)sciencefair)'ost)2010)02)us-science-andengineering-leadershi'-facing-foreign-foes)1V Gro!ing international s ien e and engineering expertise + >presents definite hallenges to U.S. ompetitiveness in high te hnology areas+ and to its position as a !orld leader+> %arns a 2lue-ri22on science 'anel" In the K3lo2aliDation of Science and 6ngineering ResearchK re'ort released this %ee<, the &ational S ien e 8oard alls for federal agen ies and U.S. industries to "en hmar, their resear h against international ompetitors+ to ensure domesti te hni al expertise stays ahead of other nations. 5orld%ide e;'enditures on research and develo'ment have dou2led since 100C to @1"1 trillion annuall+, the re'ort notes, !ith mu h of the gro!th oming from China+ $ndia and other Asian nations. Su h gro!th "enefits U.S. ompetitiveness "y in reasing overall ,no!ledge and opening more avenues for international olla"oration+ says the report. 8ut it also gives firms opportunities to loo, else!here for su h expertise. 9ast +ear, 4resident
12ama called for !"S" 'u2lic and 'rivate s'ending on research and develo'ment to increase to 3Q of the nationJs t@14"2 trillion 3E4, u' from a2out 2"AQ F@30A 2illionG no%" Industr+ 'rovides a2out 2)3 of the current !"S" RIE funding" =o%ever, K!"S"

firms in their ma*orit+-o%ned overseas affiliates consistentl+ em'lo+ed more foreign-resident RIE em'lo+ees than !"S"-2ased affiliates of foreign firms em'lo+ed !"S"-resident RIE em'lo+ees ,K finds the re'ort" 5hile !"S" firms the re'ort 'anel recommends( 7he 8ational Science $oundation should ensure it su''orts Ktrul+ transformativeK research that <ee's !"S" researchers ahead of the %orld" 7he 12ama administration should force federal agencies to 2enchmar< its research against %orld leaders and ensure the+ fund K%orld-leadingK efforts" 7he
continue to lead in high tech sales, the goods are increasingl+ manufactured else%here" 7o com2at the trend, administration should e;amine 'olicies that 'rotect the !"S" econom+, intellectual 'ro'ert+, technical leadershi' and 'ic< Kcritical research areas for %hich the !"S" should 2e the glo2al RIE leader"K

K6ver+one 2enefits -%or<ers, com'anies, all of societ+ -- from more com'etitive science and engineering e;'ertise,K sa+s 2oard mem2er 9ouis 9anDerotti of the 8e% Jerse+ Institute of 7echnolog+ in 8e%ar<" K5hat are the critical research areas,K 9anDerotti adds" K7he !"S" isnJt as<ing that
?uestion right no%" #nd %e should"K

Collapse of heg auses regional nu lear !ars+ massive proliferation+ e onomi ollapse and for es US reengagement. Ro2ert J" 1ie"er, 4rofessor of 3overnment and International #ffairs W 3eorgeto%n !niversit+" The American Era: Power and Strategy for the 21 st Century" 20%5" 4g"
.3-.4" Withdra!al from foreign commitments might seem to 2e a means of evading hostilit+ to%ard the !nited States, 2ut the conse?uences !ould almost certainl+ "e harmful 2oth to regional sta"ility and to U.S. national interests" #lthough 6uro'e %ould almost certainl+ not see the return to com'etitive 2alancing among regional 'o%ers Fi"e", com'etition and even militar+ rivalr+ 2et%een $rance and 3erman+G of the <ind that some realist scholars of international relations have 'redicted,2B else%here the dangers could increase" In #sia, Lapan+ South Iorea+ and Tai!an !ould have strong motivation to a 6uire nu lear !eapons > %hich the+ have the technological ca'acit+ to do ?uite ?uic<l+" $nsta"ility and regional ompetition ould also es alate, not only "et!een $ndia and Pa,istan+ "ut also in Southeast Asia involving :ietnam, 7hailand, Indonesia, and 'ossi2l+ the 4hili''ines" 'is,s in the Eiddle 0ast !ould 2e li<el+ to in rease, !ith regional ompetition among the ma*or countries of the 3ulf region F$ran+ Saudi Ara"ia+ and $ra6G as %ell as 0gypt+ Syria+ and $srael. Ea)or regional !ars+ eventuall+ involving the use of !ea'ons of mass destruction plus human suffering on a vast scale, floods of refugees+ e onomi disruption+ and ris,s to oil supplies are all readil+ on eiva"le. 8ased on past experien e+ the United States !ould almost certainl+ "e dra!n "a , into these areas+ !hether to defend friendly states+ to ope !ith a humanitarian atastrophe+ or to prevent a hostile po!er from dominating an entire region. Steven 4eter Rosen has thus fittingl+ o2served, $f the logi of Ameri an empire is unappealing+ it is not at all lear that the alternatives are that mu h more attra tive"&22 Similarl+, 8iall $erguson has added that those %ho disli<e #merican 'redominance ought to 2ear in mind that the alternative may not "e a !orld of ompeting great po!ers+ "ut one %ith no hegemon at all" $ergusonBs %arning ma+ 2e h+'er2olic, 2ut it hints at the 'erils that the a2sence of a dominant 'o%er, .apolarity+/ ould "ring .an anar hi ne! ;ar, Age of !aning empires and religious fanaticismN of endemic 'lunder and 'illage in the %orldBs forgotten regionsN of e onomi stagnation and ivili7ation*s retreat into a fe% fortified en laves"&23

Constellation solves O in entivi7es ST0E fo us for U.S. students Christo'her ;a!son, a freelance %riter and consultant %ith +ears of e;'erience in educational technolog+ and %e2-2ased s+stems, 1-31- 9%1%+ Constellation
'rogram cut( s'ace race no more,& Snet, htt'())%%%"Ddnet"com)2log)education)constellation-'rogram-cut-s'ace-race-nomore)3.AA
Several months ago, as the 12ama administration started e;amining 8#S#Bs 2udget criticall+, I suggested that %hat #merican education could reall+ use %as a s'ace race" 5ho %ould %e 2e racing against China and India, for starters, 2ut in a %a+, it doesnBt matter" #s I 'ointed out in that last 'ost, 12viousl+, our com'etitors no% are a num2er of #sian and 6astern 6uro'ean nations Famong othersG, 2ut !e are ompeting for mu h

more than a

moon 2efore ChinaN rather,

ess to spa e or even to %in the Cold 5ar" 7his doesnBt need to 2e a2out getting to the it needs to "e a"out inspiring students and reating the

utter sense of urgen y !e need in edu ation to push our students and improve !hat !e do. $t should "e a"out inspiring students and tea hers to em"ra e math+ s ien e+ and engineering edu ation. $f it ta,es many "illions more devoted to "oth &ASA and edu ation+ then that*s a small pri e to pay to "ring a ne! generation of "rilliant s ientists and mathemati ians to the forefront of edu ation+ resear h+ and industry . 8o% %e see that ("ama has ut the Constellation program entirely in his 'ro'osed 2udget,
and %ith it, the 'ossi2ilit+ of much in the %a+ of s'ace e;'loration" 8ot that Constellation isnBt %ildl+ over 2udget and too far 2ehind to serve its 'ur'ose as a shuttle re'lacement craft, 2ut there is something a"out

spa e exploration that ould "e tied to a national ST0E urri ulum that )ust seems so inspiring. #ccording to the 1rlando Sentinel 5hen the 5hite =ouse releases his 2udget 'ro'osal Honda+, there !ill "e no money for the Constellation program that !as supposed to return humans to the moon "y 9%9%" 7he trou2led and e;'ensive #res I
roc<et that %as to re'lace the s'ace shuttle to ferr+ humans to s'ace %ill 2e gone, along %ith mone+ for its 2igger 2rother, the #res : cargo roc<et that %as to launch the fuel and su''lies needed to ta<e humans 2ac< to the moon" I a2solutel+ understand %h+ 2udgets have 2een re-'rioritiDed and I a''laud efforts to address climate issues and e;'lore 'u2lic-'rivate 'artnershi's for ca'sules and roc<ets that can 2e used as s'ace ta;is to ta<e astronauts on fi;ed-'rice contracts to and from the International S'ace Station"& =o%ever +

this seems li,e a lost opportunity to engage the next generation of s ientists in !ays that the first spa e ra e did 6uite admira"ly.

RRRC-$&A 0ST0&S$(&S

9AC U.S. China War $nevita"le

US China Crises inevita"le
7homas 5right, 6;ec" Eir" W Chicago Council on 3lo2al #ffairs, 4-30-2000, . Tuestions,& Rising 4o%ers, htt'())rising'o%ers"foreign'olic+2logs"com)2000)04) 7he im'lications are enormous 2ecause it im'lies that the great dramas of the 91st entury !ill play out in Asia rather than 6uro'e" 9et me *ust focus on t%o im'lications that donBt get as much attention as the+ should" 7he first has to do %ith strategic culture" 7he !nited States is used to great 'o%er 'olitics in the #tlantic area and most !S foreign 'olic+ e;'erts have learned their trade from stud+ing that e;'erience" 7he !nited States must 2e careful not to assume that the lessons learned from that are transfera2le to #sia" India-China-Ja'an relations %ill not necessaril+ 'la+ out li<e 3erman+-$rance-Britain relations in the 10th centur+" So it %ill 2e im'ortant for the !S foreign 'olic+ communit+ to a''reciate and understand the s'ecific conte;t of great 'o%er relations in the 21st centur+" 3iven that strategi misunderstanding and misper eptions can heighten the ris, of onfli t, it is tremendousl+ im'ortant that #merica gets this right" 7he second has to do %ith %orse case scenarios" 0ast Asia is pro"a"ly the only pla e on the planet !here one ould imagine a ma)or !ar or struggle on a 'ar %ith the conflicts of the 20th centur+" 'egional multipolarity+ volatility in e onomi s+ rising nationalisms+ histori animosities and grievan es+ legitimate differen es of interests and dramati po!er transitions ma,e 0ast Asia uni6ue in the modern !orld. $t falls to the United States , as the %orldBs strongest 'o%er and as a 4acific nation, to ta,e the lead in managing this situation+ reassuring all nations, dissuading and deterring aggression and guiding them to a mutuall+ 2eneficial future" 7his ma+ 2e Ameri a*s greatest foreign poli y hallenge of the ne;t half centur+"

China and U.S. onfli t inevita"le

Leir 9ie2er, #ssistant 4rofessor of 4olitical Science at the !niversit+ of 8otre Eame, and Ear+l 4ress, #ssociate 4rofessor of 3overnment at Eartmouth College"200/, Corres'ondence( 7he Short Shado% of !"S" 4rimac+,& International Securit+, htt'())muse"*hu"edu)*ournals)internationalMsecurit+)v031)31"3lantis"html The notion that China trusts the United States>and %ill therefore ac?uiesce to !"S" nuclear 'rimac+>is even less plausi"le. There are po!erful reasons to expe t serious fri tion 2et%een the !nited States and China in the future" 0ven if Chinese leaders vie! the United States as a status 6uo ountry , as Sauer suggests, ChinaNs rising e onomi po!er may put Washington and 8ei)ing on a ollision ourseN in fact, hanges in the glo"al distri"ution of po!er often trigger antagonism 2et%een status ?uo countries and rising challengers"C 7he !"S" government is a%are of these dangers and has declared that !"S" 'olic+ is Kto dissuade 'otential adversariesK>a thinl+ veiled reference to China >from Ksur'assing, or e?ualing, the 'o%er of the !nited States"K/ 7o ma<e matters %orse, China has hostile relations !ith Lapan+ the United StatesN ,ey ally in the region" In a decade or t%o, China ma+ find itself surrounded 2+ an anti-China !"S" militar+ alliance" 5e see no reason to e;'ect that Chinese leaders %ill overloo< these dangers and acce't their countr+Js vast inferiorit+ in conventional and nuclear forces" 8o one <no%s for certain ho% China %ill res'ond to !"S" nuclear 'rimac+" But to assume that the !nited States can <ee' enhancing its counterforce

ca'a2ilities %ithout triggering a nuclear 2uildu' from China re?uires a considera2le lea' of faith"A U6nd 4age 1ACV

9AC Tes US O China War

;ra!s in the U.S.
Hichael =anlon, Senior $ello% foreign 4olic+, .-1-200., X7he Ris< of 5ar 1ver 7ai%an is Real,& Broo<ings, htt'())%%%"2roo<ings"edu)o'inions)200.)0.01asiaMohanlon"as'; #nd as 2iDarre as it ma+ seem, the US really !ould fight to prevent fara!ay Tai!an from "eing on6uered" 7his is true not onl+ 2ecause 4resident 3eorge 5" Bush 'u2licl+ said so in 2001, 2ut also for dee'er reasons" $irst, US redi"ility as a dependa"le se urity partner !ould "e on the line in an+ conflict over 7ai%an" #fter a half-centur+ of coming to 7ai%anJs aid in crises, to 2ac< do%n %hen the going got tough %ould cause ever+ other !S all+ around the %orld to dou2t the strength of #mericaJs commitment" #mong other im'lications, more countries might then 'ursue their o%n nuclear deterrents" Second, and more 'ositivel+, Tai!anNs vi"rant demo ra y eli its strong support in the US . 7his goes for Eemocrats as %ell as Re'u2licansN it %as the Clinton administration, after all, that sent t%o aircraft carriers to%ard the 7ai%an Strait in 100C in reaction to ChinaJs firing of missiles near the island"

Eost pro"a"le impa t

Colum2ia !niversit+ 4ress, 200., Eangerous Strait,& htt'())cu'"colum2ia"edu)2oo<)0/A-0-231-13.C4-1)dangerous-strait 7oda+ the most dangerous pla e on earth is argua2l+ the Tai!an Strait, %here a !ar "et!een the United States and China ould erupt out of mis al ulation+ misunderstanding+ or a ident" =o% and to !hat degree Tai!an pursues its o!n national identity !ill have profound ramifi ations in its relationshi' %ith China as %ell as in relations 2et%een China and the !nited States" 0vents late in 2004 demonstrated the volatility of the situation, as 7ai%anJs legislative elections une;'ectedl+ 'reserved a slim ma*orit+ for su''orters of closer relations %ith China" 8ei)ing+ nevertheless, threatened to pass an anti# se ession la!+ a't to revitaliDe 'ro-inde'endence forces in 7ai%an> and ma,e !ar more li,ely. 7a<ing change as a central theme, these essa+s 2+ 'rominent scholars and 'ractitioners in the arena of !"S"-7ai%an-Chinese relations com2ine historical conte;t %ith timel+ anal+sis of an accelerating crisis" 7he 2oo< clarifies historical develo'ments, e;amines m+ths a2out 'ast and 'resent 'olicies, and assesses issues facing contem'orar+ 'olic+ma<ers" Hoving 2e+ond sim'listic e;'lanations that dominate discussion a2out the !"S"-7ai%an-China relationshi', Eangerous Strait challenges common %isdom and a''roaches the 'olitical, economic, and strategic as'ects of the cross-Strait situation ane%" 7he result is a collection that 'rovides fresh and much-needed insights into a com'le; 'ro2lem and e;amines the %a+s in %hich catastro'he can 2e avoided"

(nly s enario
7homas 5right, 6;ec" Eir" W Chicago Council on 3lo2al #ffairs, 4-30-2000, . Tuestions,& Rising 4o%ers, htt'())rising'o%ers"foreign'olic+2logs"com)2000)04) 7he im'lications are enormous 2ecause it im'lies that the great dramas of the 91st entury !ill play out in Asia rather than 6uro'e" 9et me *ust focus on t%o im'lications that donBt get as much attention as the+ should" 7he first has to do

%ith strategic culture" 7he !nited States is used to great 'o%er 'olitics in the #tlantic area and most !S foreign 'olic+ e;'erts have learned their trade from stud+ing that e;'erience" 7he !nited States must 2e careful not to assume that the lessons learned from that are transfera2le to #sia" India-China-Ja'an relations %ill not necessaril+ 'la+ out li<e 3erman+-$rance-Britain relations in the 10th centur+" So it %ill 2e im'ortant for the !S foreign 'olic+ communit+ to a''reciate and understand the s'ecific conte;t of great 'o%er relations in the 21st centur+" 3iven that strategi misunderstanding and misper eptions an heighten the ris, of onfli t, it is tremendousl+ im'ortant that #merica gets this right" 7he second has to do %ith %orse case scenarios . 0ast Asia is pro"a"ly the only pla e on the planet !here one ould imagine a ma)or !ar or struggle on a 'ar %ith the conflicts of the 20th centur+" 'egional multipolarity+ volatility in e onomi s+ rising nationalisms+ histori animosities and grievan es+ legitimate differen es of interests and dramati po!er transitions ma,e 0ast Asia uni6ue in the modern !orld. $t falls to the United States , as the %orldBs strongest 'o%er and as a 4acific nation, to ta,e the lead in managing this situation, reassuring all nations, dissuading and deterring aggression and guiding them to a mutuall+ 2eneficial future" 7his ma+ 2e Ameri a*s greatest foreign poli y hallenge of the ne;t half centur+"

!S militar+ 2ehavior triggers conflict %ith China China ;aily, /-2/-2011, Eangerous !S Behavior,& China Eail+,
htt'())%%%"chinadail+"com"cn)cnd+)2011-0/)2/)contentM120A030C"htm 7here have 2een re'orts that t!o Chinese fighter )ets re ently inter epted a US U#9 spy plane over the Tai!an Straits" 5hen as<ed to comment on the incident, !S #dmiral Hi<e Hullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Honda+( K We "oth have to "e very areful a"out ho! !e fly them. We have to "e areful a"out the inter epts "K =is remar<s certainl+ sound 'rudent, 2ut the+ carefull+ avoided the crucial 'oint - it is the US militaryNs dangerous !ar games around ChinaNs air and maritime territory that have repeatedly triggered ChinaNs legitimate response" 7he cause and effect should 2e clear to ever+one" #nd the United States sho!s no sign of giving up su h games. Hullen reiterated on the same occasion that the US military >!onNt "e deterred from flying in international airspa e> on ChinaNs doorstep+ despite opposition from 8ei)ing" Hullen did sa+ that his countr+ does not %ant a re'eat of the incident in 2001, %hen a Chinese fighter
*et and a !S militar+ reconnaissance 'lane collided near ChinaJs coast <illing the Chinese 'ilot" =o%ever, the onus is on the !S to avoid such 'rovocative flights, %hich can and %ill cause grave damage to relations 2et%een the t%o countries" It is %orth noting that militar+-to-militar+ relations are the most difficult and delicate 'art of Sino-!S ties" Eilitary intera tion has only resumed in re ent months , through the 'ainsta<ing

8ei)ing ut off defense ties last year !hen Washington announ ed a UJ "illion !eapons sale to Tai!an. Euring HullenJs visit to China, Chen Bingde, the 3eneral Chief-of-Staff of the 4eo'leJs 9i2eration #rm+, also voiced his on ern on potential mis al ulations or even lashes "et!een the t!o militaries" 5hile China %elcomes
efforts of 2oth sides, after the !S militar+ 'resence in #sia-4acific for its constructive role in maintaining regional sta2ilit+, that does not mean that China %ill com'romise on issues relating to its territorial integrit+ or national securit+" Chen criticiDed the !S naval drills in the South China Sea and attem'ted arms sale to 7ai%an, and also urged the !S to reduce or halt its militar+ surveillance near ChinaJs coast" 3iven the increasingl+ interde'endent relations 2et%een China and the !S, and the commitment 2+ 2oth governments to 2uild a coo'erative 'artnershi' in the 21st centur+, it is in 2oth sidesJ interests to 2uild and maintain good-neigh2orliness 2ased on mutual res'ect for each otherJs sovereignt+ and national dignit+" 5ashington should sho% its 'olitical %ill and sto' 'la+ing %ith guns on ChinaJs doorste's" K3ood fences ma<e good neigh2orsK the %ords of the #merican 'oet Ro2ert $rost also hold true for this relationshi'"

9AC Tes China#Tai!an Crisis

Tai!an risis inevita"le O long#term trends
Eavid #" Shla'a<, Senior International 4olic+ #nal+st W R#8E, et al, 2000, # Tuestion of Balance,& R#8E, htt'())%%%"rand"org)'u2s)monogra'hs)2000)R#8EMH3AAA"'df 7he factors descri2ed in this cha'ter 'resent something of a mi;ed 2ag, and their collective im'act, in terms of the future sta2ilit+ of the crossstrait relationshi', is some%hat un'redicta2le" But %e 2elieve that, in general, the .tense sta"ility/ that hara teri7ed the ross#strait onfrontation prior to the mid#1HH%s is suffering from gradual erosion" 7he de2ate concerning sovereignt+ over 7ai%an has evolved dramaticall+" 7oda+, this dispute pits a 8ei)ing government that insists there is only one China of %hich 7ai%an is a 'art against a Tai!an that still retains man+ formal tra''ings of 2eing a Chinese state 2ut increas- ingl+ develops an independent national identity" 8ot%ithstanding the colla'se of voter su''ort for the E44, nearl+ all significant 'olitical 'arties in 7ai%an no% acce't the notion that an+ future arrangement %ith China must receive the se'arate a''roval of 7ai%anBs 23 million voters" For 8ei)ing+ the emerging Tai!anese national identity raises the profoundly !orrisome prospe t that if unifi ation is delayed for too long+ the Tai!anese people !ill "e un!illing to a ept any arrangement that su2sumes them %ithin a Chinese& state or confederation" 3radual changes along these lines seem unli<el+ to 'rovide the s'ar< for conflict, 2ut they ould provide a "a ,drop for risis if 8ei)ing on ludes that long#term trends are turning po!erfully against them. 7he ra'idl+ gro%ing cross-strait economic relationshi' means that Bei*ing can no% inflict significant 'ain on 7ai%an if it so chooses" But, to date, Bei*ing has had difficult+ translating this economic leverage into meaningful 'olitical results, other than as a device for signaling its irritation %ith 7ai'ei" $f 8ei)ing loses hope that economic and social maneuvers can slo% or reverse forces on 7ai%an that run ath%art of at least eventual reunificaton, the attra tiveness+ in a risis+ of military options is li,ely to in rease. $n Tai!an, mean%hile, advocates of greater inde'endence fear that gro!ing e onomi ties !ill mean .time is not on their side +/ and they may feel the need to push more provo ative measures %hen 'olitical circumstances give them the chance" Bei*ingBs anger at %hat it sa% as Chen Shui2ianBs 'rovocative 2ehavior encouraged a dangerous shift in the 4RCBs red lines& for threatening force against 7ai%an" Bei*ing sees Chen and his allies as 'athological envelo'e-'ushers& constantl+ loo<ing for %a+s to 'romote the islandBs inde'endence, and the 'erceived need to <ee' Chen 2o;ed in caused China to shift a%a+ from the four clear, relativel+ eas+to- follo% red lines& that it %arned 7ai%an not to cross in the 'ast" Instead, China has gravitated to%ard more vague, am2iguous red areas& and it is more li<el+ to define For redefineG these situationall+ and reactivel+ during 'eriods of crisis" 7his am2iguit+ and im'rovisation could 2ecome dangerous sources of mis'erce'tion during a crisis" 7he com2ination of more than a decade of 4RC militar+ moderniDation and flat 7ai%anese defense s'ending have transformed the 2alance across the strait a%a+ from one that had long favored 7ai%an" In the heat of an+ future cross-strait crisis, this shift in the 'erceived 2alance of forces seems to remove an im'ortant im'ediment to Chinese use of force"

Tai!an is opposing to the reunifi ation+ any step of the mainland !ill lead to !ar Joe E ;onald, #ssociated 4ress 5riter, F#9G-2011, ChinaBs =u Calls for Closer
7ai%an 7ies,& International 8e%s, htt'())%%%"le;isne;is"com)hotto'ics)lnacademic) China and Tai!an s'lit in 1040 amid civil %ar 2ut Bei*ing claims the island as its o%n territor+" 7he+ have no offi ial relations and fe% direct trade and travel lin<s 2ut 7ai%anese com'anies have invested more than @100 2illion in the mainland" =u mentioned no 'ossi2le ne% initiatives to 'romote direct ties %ith 7ai%an" Bei*ing has 2een nurturing relations %ith 7ai%anJs o''osition in ho'es of isolating 7ai%anese 4resident Chen Shui-2ian" ChenNs party favors ma,ing Tai!anNs de facto independen e 'ermanent, a step the ommunist mainland says !ould lead to !ar" 7ai%an 2ars most direct airline flights and shi''ing for fear its giant neigh2or could use them as cover for an invasion" 8ei)ing regularly threatens to invade the island if it pursue independen e or delays tal,s on unifi ation " K4ractice has sho%n that the se'aration causes harm to 2oth sides and unification 2rings a %in-%in situation"K

Tensions "et!een Tai!an and China no! ;aily Eail 'eporter, $ast 8e%s Station, <#9G-11, 7ai%an sends fighter
'lanes to interce't Chinese aircraft %hich stra+ed into its airs'ace for first time in 12 +ears,& Hail 1nline, htt'())%%%"dail+mail"co"u<)ne%s)article-201AA//)7ai%ansends-fighter-'lanes-interce't-stra+-Chinese-aircraft-time-12-+ears"html,ito-feedsne%s;ml Tai!anese offi ials said they sent t!o fighter planes to inter ept Su<hoi-2/ *ets after the Chinese air raft "rea hed its airspa e for first time in 12 +ears" 7he Chinese Su<hoi-2/s had re'ortedl+ crossed a 2oundar+ to 'ursue a !"S" s'+ 'lane sent on a surveillance flight over China" 7ai%anJs Eefense Hinistr+ said it sent t%o aircraft to interce't the Chinese *ets, %hich had 2riefl+ crossed a line in the centre of the 7ai%an Strait considered an unofficial air 2oundar+ 2et%een the t%o states"

China is reating more es alating onfli ts !ith Tai!an+ !ar is inevita"le A-&, #ll =eadline 8e%s, <#9G-11, 7ai%an accuses China of violating airs'ace,&
#ll =eadline 8e%s, htt'())%%%"allheadlinene%s"com)articles)000..230,7ai%an Q20accusesQ20ChinaQ20ofQ20violatingQ20airs'ace Tai!anNs ;efense Einistry has a used Chinese fighter )ets of intruding into their airspa e, adding that the incident %as not 'rovocative 2ut raised on erns "et!een the t!o neigh"ors" 7he incident, on June 20, also sho%cased delicate relations 2et%een Bei*ing and 7ai'ei des'ite fast-%arming ties since a China-friendl+ 'resident came to 'o%er" #ccording to the islandBs local ne%s'a'er, United Daily News, the incident ha''ened late last month %hen t!o Chinese SU#9< fighter planes %ere a''arentl+ driving a%a+ an #merican !2 reconnaissance aircraft, %hich %as fl+ing along the Tai!an Strait to olle t Chinese mainland information" Euring the chase, one of the Chinese )ets rossed the 7ai%an Strait, %hich is %idel+ <no%n as the airspa e "oundary "et!een China and Tai!an" K7he intruder did not turn 2ac< until t%o $-1C fighters of FtheG 7ai%an #ir $orce scram2led to interce't it,K an unnamed militar+

source said" K7he mainland militar+ needs to e;ercise its restraint, or une;'ected clashes ma+ ha''en,K ruling Luomintang 'art+ legislator Shuai =ua-min %arned" 7he defense ministr+ said it did not consider the intrusion to 2e deli2erate" K#s long as an+ emergenc+ situation is detected, the militar+ has never hesitated to send our #ir $orce aircraft to the region for 'recautionar+ %arnings,K the Hinistr+ of 8ational Eefense said in a statement. 'elations "et!een the t!o nations have "een at odds sin e the end of a ivil !ar in 1HFH "e ause China still onsiders Tai!an as part of its territory and refuses to a"andon it.

Tai!an risis inevita"le O long#term trends

Eavid #" Shla'a<, Senior International 4olic+ #nal+st W R#8E, et al, 2000, # Tuestion of Balance,& R#8E, htt'())%%%"rand"org)'u2s)monogra'hs)2000)R#8EMH3AAA"'df 7he factors descri2ed in this cha'ter 'resent something of a mi;ed 2ag, and their collective im'act, in terms of the future sta2ilit+ of the crossstrait relationshi', is some%hat un'redicta2le" But %e 2elieve that, in general, the .tense sta"ility/ that hara teri7ed the ross#strait onfrontation 'rior to the mid-1000s is suffering from gradual erosion" 7he de2ate concerning sovereignt+ over 7ai%an has evolved dramaticall+" 7oda+, this dispute pits a 8ei)ing government that insists there is only one China of %hich 7ai%an is a 'art against a Tai!an that still retains man+ formal tra''ings of 2eing a Chinese state 2ut increas- ingl+ develops an independent national identity" 8ot%ithstanding the colla'se of voter su''ort for the E44, nearl+ all significant 'olitical 'arties in 7ai%an no% acce't the notion that an+ future arrangement %ith China must receive the se'arate a''roval of 7ai%anBs 23 million voters" For 8ei)ing+ the emerging Tai!anese national identity raises the profoundly !orrisome prospe t that if unifi ation is delayed for too long+ the Tai!anese people !ill "e un!illing to a ept any arrangement that su2sumes them %ithin a Chinese& state or confederation" 3radual changes along these lines seem unli<el+ to 'rovide the s'ar< for conflict, 2ut they ould provide a "a ,drop for risis if 8ei)ing on ludes that long#term trends are turning po!erfully against them " 7he ra'idl+ gro%ing cross-strait economic relationshi' means that Bei*ing can no% inflict significant 'ain on 7ai%an if it so chooses" But, to date, Bei*ing has had difficult+ translating this economic leverage into meaningful 'olitical results, other than as a device for signaling its irritation %ith 7ai'ei" $f 8ei)ing loses hope that economic and social maneuvers can slo% or reverse forces on 7ai%an that run ath%art of at least eventual reunificaton, the attra tiveness+ in a risis+ of military options is li,ely to in rease. $n Tai!an, mean%hile, advocates of greater independen e fear that gro!ing e onomi ties !ill mean .time is not on their side+/ and they may feel the need to push more provo ative measures %hen 'olitical circumstances give them the chance" Bei*ingBs anger at %hat it sa% as Chen Shui2ianBs 'rovocative 2ehavior encouraged a dangerous shift in the 4RCBs red lines& for threatening force against 7ai%an" Bei*ing sees Chen and his allies as 'athological envelo'e-'ushers& constantl+ loo<ing for %a+s to 'romote the islandBs inde'endence, and the 'erceived need to <ee' Chen 2o;ed in caused China to shift a%a+ from the four clear, relativel+ eas+to- follo% red lines& that it %arned 7ai%an not to cross in the 'ast" Instead, China has gravitated to%ard more vague, am2iguous red areas& and it is more li<el+ to define For redefineG these situationall+ and reactivel+ during 'eriods of crisis" 7his am"iguity and improvisation ould "e ome dangerous sour es of misper eption during a

risis" 7he com2ination of more than a de ade of P'C military moderni7ation and flat 7ai%anese defense s'ending have transformed the 2alance across the strait a%a+ from one that had long favored 7ai%an" In the heat of an+ future crossstrait crisis, this shift in the 'erceived 2alance of for es seems to remove an important impediment to Chinese use of for e.

Tai!an risis is inevita"le O irre on ila"le differen es

Eavid #" Shla'a<, Senior International 4olic+ #nal+st W R#8E, et al, 2000, # Tuestion of Balance,& R#8E, htt'())%%%"rand"org)'u2s)monogra'hs)2000)R#8EMH3AAA"'df =o%ever, it is in these very expe tations of a ne! and more a ommodating Tai!anese government that the seeds of disappointment and future risis may lay" 5hile the LH7 is not the E44, the 'olitical center in 7ai%an has shifted during the democratic era" #lthough onl+ a relativel+ small 'ro'ortion of 7ai%anBs citiDens desire immediate inde'endence, the hanges in the 'olitical, social, and cultural identity of the island*s population descri2ed in the cha'ter are genuine+ signifi ant+ and enduring" 7his gro%ing sense of Tai!an#ness/ puts real limits on the a"ility of the LH7 to ma,e the <inds of on essions to China that %ould 'ermanentl+ ease Bei*ingBs %orries a2out the eventual denouement of the cross-strait drama" 7he realities of 7ai%anBs 'olitical and social develo'ment strongl+ suggest that even the most flexi"le Taipei government !ill rea h the limits of 'ossi2le a ommodation %ell short of 8ei)ing*s desired positionA there are , sim'l+, irreduci2le and irre on ila"le differen es 2et%een a China that see<s unification and a 7ai%an that %ill not voluntaril+ acce't it" The un"ridgea"le distan e "et!een these t!o positions is not li,ely to shrin, in the coming decadeN the o''osite ma+ indeed 2e the case, regardless of %hich 'art+ rules 7ai%an" $urther, China*s gro!ing military po!er>%hich %ill 2e discussed in greater detail in the ne;t three cha'ters of this re'ort>may onvin e its leaders that the mainland possesses redi"le options that go 2e+ond rhetoric and economic harassment if>more li<el+, !henD the next ross#strait risis erupts" $inall+, even after the recent 9R reforms, 7ai%an remains a +oung& democrac+, and although Bei*ing Fand 5ashingtonYG ma+ ho'e that the volatilit+ of 'olitics in 7ai'ei %ill 2e reduced, it is not unli<el+ that island 'olitics %ill retain an eccentric and erratic edge that from time to time %ill 'rove irritating to Bei*ing" 7a<en together, all of these factors suggest that !"S" defense planners !ould "e imprudent to assume that the 'assing of Chen Shui2ian from 7ai%anBs 'olitical scene means an end to the possi"ility of sudden+ deep risis in the Tai!an Strait" It is to the tas< of assessing ho% a militar+ confrontation arising from such a crisis might 'la+ out in several <e+ dimensions that our 'ens no% turn"

9AC AT: Tai!an $ndependen e Eovement ;ead

;ying independen e movement is uni6ueness for our argument O en ourages rises and Chinese adventurism
Eavid #" Shla'a<, Senior International 4olic+ #nal+st W R#8E, et al, 2000, # Tuestion of Balance,& R#8E, htt'())%%%"rand"org)'u2s)monogra'hs)2000)R#8EMH3AAA"'df Ha Ring-*eouBs election in 200A as 7ai%anBs 'resident and the further consolidation of the LuomintangBs FLH7BsG hold on 7ai%anBs national legislature Fthe 9egislative Ruan, or 9RG has led to a reassuring 2rea< from 12 +ears of cross-strait frictions, during the last eight of %hich F2000O200AG Bei*ing struggled to <ee' inde'endenceminded 7ai%an 'resident Chen Shui-2ian contained"& 7his 'eriod featured the use of economic harassment as a 'oliticall+ satisf+ing>though not al%a+s successful> short-term method of signaling Chinese dis'leasure" But 8ei)ing*s diffi ulty translating e onomi leverage into politi al leverage is not necessaril+ good ne!s for either 7ai%an or the !nited States" $f China omes to "elieve that nonviolent tools have lost effi a y+ it might "e in lined to rat het up military pressure in the event of a crisis, if onl+ 2ecause of a 'erceived lac< of effective alternatives" Among the more profound hanges to affe t the politi al "alan e 2et%een Bei*ing and 7ai'ei has "een the gro!th of a !idespread independent Tai!an identity+ a sense of distinct 7ai%aneseness"& B+ Eecem2er 200A, surve+ data indicated that the over!helming ma)ority of the island*s iti7ens identified themselves as ex lusively Tai!anese F.1 'ercentG or 2oth 7ai%anese and Chinese F41 'ercentG" B+ far the most trou2ling statistic, from Bei*ingBs 'ers'ective, must 2e that fe!er than 5 per ent des ri"ed themselves as ex lusively Chinese" =o%ever, the rise of this 7ai%anese identit+ has not +et 'roduced a 'ro-inde'endence ma*orit+ on the island" ChenBs trou2led administration, 2eset 2+ slo% economic gro%th and tormented 2+ a fractious LH7 ma*orit+ in the 9R, 'roved una2le to 2uild consensus in a num2er of areas, most 'rominentl+ in defense 'olic+ and militar+ 'rocurement" Eefense a''ro'riations and 'urchases of im'ortant s+stems %ere froDen 2+ the 'artisan 2ic<ering that gri''ed 7ai%anBs government" 5ith a solidl+ entrenched LH7 government, as of summer 2000, controlling 2oth 7ai%anBs e;ecutive and legislative 2ranches, even the most 'aranoid of Chinese leaders must have some confidence that no one on 7ai%an %ill 2e inclined to 'ush the envelo'e& on inde'endence or related issues an+ time soon" =o%ever, it is in these very expe tations of a ne! and more a ommodating Tai!an government that the seeds of disa''ointment and future risis may lie" #lthough inde'endence remains a distant dream for the relativel+ small 'ro'ortion of 7ai%anBs citiDens %ho su''ort it, the hanges in the 'olitical, social, and ultural identity of the islandBs 'o'ulation are genuine+ signifi ant+ and enduring+ and these realities strongly suggest that even the most flexi"le Taipei government !ill rea h its limits of 'ossi2le a ommodation %ell short of Bei*ingBs desired 'osition" The un"ridgea"le distan e 2et%een these t%o 'ositions is not li,ely to shrin, in the oming de adeA the opposite may indeed "e the ase+ regardless of %hich 'art+ rules 7ai%an" $urther, China*s gro!ing military po!er may onvin e its leaders that the mainland possesses redi"le options that go 2e+ond rhetoric and economic harassment ifDmore li,ely+ !henDthe next ross#strait risis erupts" $inall+, even after the recent 9R reforms, 7ai%an remains a +oung& and

fractious democrac+N %hile Bei*ing Fand 5ashingtonYG ma+ ho'e that the volatilit+ of 'olitics in 7ai'ei %ill 2e reduced, it is not unli<el+ that island politi s !ill retain an e entri and errati edge that from time to time %ill 'rove irritating to Bei*ing"

9AC $magery Iey To 1o ating ;F#?1A

;F#?1A has an off#road apa"ility O ensures the surviva"ility of Chinese se ond stri,e Sean (*Connor, IHI87 I #nal+sis, 4-1/-9%%H, Sha+<ov<a 5S#,&
htt'())geimint"2logs'ot"com)2000M04M01Marchive"html The urrent $C8E for e in China represents a to,en strategi deterrent in apa"le of !aging a nu lear ounterfor e or counterstri<e ampaign" 5hile silo-2ased E$-.# missiles are surviva2le to a degree, silo 'ositions can 2e located and targeted for 'reem'tive stri<e should the need arise" China has ta<en measures to conceal these 'ositions, 2ut the+ can still 2e located through thorough imager+ anal+sis" To in rease surviva"ility and reduce launch 're'aration time, the solid 'ro'ellant ;F#?1 and ;F#?1A road#mo"ile $C8Es have "een developed and are "eing fielded" 9i?uid-fueled E$-.# missiles ma+ not em'lo+ stora2le li?uid fuel 'ro'ellant, 'ossi2l+ re?uiring a length+ fueling 'rocess 2efore firing" The ;F#?1 appears to have "een super eded "y the longer#ranged ;F#?1A apa"le of rea hing the entire United States, %ith onl+ the A13th Brigade at 8an+ang and 'ossi2l+ the unidentified 2rigade at Zi;ia definitel+ o'erating the s+stem" The main dra!"a , of the ;F#?1+ apart from the shorter range !hen ompared to the ;F#?1A+ is the la , of an off#road apa"ility " It is 2elieved that a ne% offroad ca'a2le 769 is 2eing develo'ed for the E$-31#, allo%ing the %ea'ons to 2e de'lo+ed further afield from garrisons in areas %here launch 'ositions %ould 2e much harder to identif+" 7he de'lo+ment of increased num2ers of E$-31 and ;F# ?1A s+stems !ill finally allo! China to o"tain a surviva"le+ redi"le ounterfor e and ounterstri,e apa"ility" 7he 'resence of !3$s su''orting these s+stems allo%s them to remain hidden 'rior to launch, 'erha's de'lo+ing after an initial nuclear attac< to 'erform a counterstri<e mission" HIR:ing these %ea'ons %ould increase the effectiveness of each launcher, and %hen com2ined %ith the 49#8Js evolving SSB8 fleet %ould allo% a smaller num2er of launch 'latforms to serve as a counterforce o'tion and credi2le deterrent to an+ nuclear stri<e, should a Klaunch on %arningK 'osture 2e ado'ted %ith sufficient su''ort assets"

&o han e of a su essful first stri,e O 1ie"er and Press don*t assume intelligen e failures 9i 8in, Eir" #rms Control and 4rof W 7singhua, 9%%J, 4a'er 7iger %ith 5hitened
7eeth,& China Securit+, Iss" 4, htt'())%%%"chinasecurit+"us)inde;"'h', o'tion-comMcontentIvie%-articleIid-213IItemid-AIlang-Dh 7he authorsB calculations are not sur'rising" Basic arithmetic alone %ill certif+ that thousands of nuclear missiles should 2e a2le to destro+ a cou'le doDen immo2ile intercontinental 2allistic missiles FICBHsG" But this calculus has e;isted for a long time" 7he authors %ould have done 2etter to ?uestion %h+ the+ are the first to discuss ChinaBs vulnera2ilit+ to Dero target surviva2ilit+" 7he Chinese leaders do not feel a sense of pani a"out the s ar ity of Chinese immo2ile $C8Es and do not rush to increase their num2er %hen in fact the+ have the ca'a2ilit+ and the means to do so" Why, the authors might have as<ed themselves, does China remain omforta"le %ith its small and lo%-alert nuclear arsenal, #s 9ie2er and

4ress state in their 'a'er( [UChinaBsV strategic arsenal is gro%ing at a glacial 'ace" China has onl+ 1A ICBHs, a num2er that has remained essentiall+ unchanged for more than a decade" In addition, these missiles are <e't un-fueled, and their %arheads are stored se'aratel+"& Rather than e;'loring %h+ China chooses to do so, 1ie"er and Press use this fact as evidence to su''ort their 'oint on !"S" nuclear 'rimac+"3 If the authors 'aid more heed to ChinaBs choice of a small and lo%-alert nuclear arsenal the+ %ould find their dedu tions faulty+ in luding te hni al pro"lems in their al ulations" #ll the calculations in their 'a'er, including the sensitivit+ anal+ses, focus on the hardness of the targets as %ell as stri<e ca'a2ilities, %hich are determined 2+ the lethal distance, accurac+, and relia2ilit+ of !"S" nuclear %ea'ons" =o%ever, the calculations in the 'a'er are 2ased on a fundamentall+ unrealistic assum'tion( that is, the !nited States can detect and locate all Russian and Chinese long-range nuclear %ea'ons" 7he authors never state this assum'tion in their 'a'er O 'erha's un<no%ingl+ so, as most former calculations do not discuss the issue of target detection" In other 'revious studies, %here the num2ers of surviving nuclear %ea'ons in a calculation are much larger than Dero, it ma+ 2e alright to ignore the factor of intelligence" But, if such a calculation gives a result of almost Dero surviving targets in a nuclear e;change, the intelligence factor 2ecomes highl+ salient and therefore cannot 2e ignored" 7he authors understand that [ one surviving mo2ile ICBH might destro+ a !"S" cit+ [& So their sensitivit+ anal+sis tries to 'rove that no single Russian long-range nuclear %ea'on can survive even if the !"S" nuclear %ea'ons are not as effective as assumed" =o%ever, the real 'ro2lem is that if the United States does not ,no! !here some nu lear !eapons are in Russia or China, the United States annot destroy them even !ith superior num2ers and 'erformance of nuclear !eapons" It is instructive to <no% that once the Soviet !nion Fand later, RussiaG felt that it had a sufficient num2er of nuclear %ea'ons to survive a first !"S" nuclear stri<e, it chose to sign the Strategic #rms Reduction 7reaties FS7#R7G I and II that entail on-site ins'ections to verif+ the num2ers and locations of the Russian longrange nuclear %ea'ons" If Russia feels that not a single one of its nuclear %ea'ons can survive a first stri<e 2+ the !nited States, it ma+ consider not revealing all its nuclear %ea'ons to the !nited States" In fact, unli<e the S7#R7 treaties, the ne% Hosco% 7reat+ does not re?uire similar on-site ins'ections" It is evident, even more so in ChinaBs case, that it has never de lared the num2er or location of its nu lear !eapons" 8aturall+, the !nited States relies on its intelligence to identif+ and locate ChinaBs nuclear %ea'ons and then uses this information to deci'her %hich o2*ects and ho% man+ o2*ects a''ear to 2e nuclear %ea'ons and %here the+ are located" 7he calculations in their 'a'er do 'rove that the !nited States can destro+ all the o2*ects that have 2een identified 2+ !"S" intelligence as nuclear %ea'ons" =o%ever, the 'a'er misses the central 'oint of %hether the entiret+ of Chinese long-range nuclear %ea'ons have 2een identified and located 2+ !"S" intelligence or %hether all the o2*ects that are identified in China are real nuclear %ea'ons" The paper simply omits possi"le defi ien ies of intelligen e. $urthermore, the performan e of U.S. intelligen e in the first $ra6 %ar and the Iosovo %ar suggests that the United States may miss more than )ust a fe! large military targets" 7echnicall+ s'ea<ing, it is a relatively simple ountermeasure for China to on eal a fe! a tual $C8Es and to deploy de oy missiles O given the large siDe of the Chinese territor+" 8o matter ho% the !nited States increases the num2er, accurac+, and relia2ilit+ of its nuclear %ea'ons, even if used in a surprise atta ,+ it has no means of destroying

those Chinese $C8Es that its intelligen e has not found. 7hus, there is no method or model "y !hi h 1ie"er and Press an determine !ith any ertainty that the num"er of surviving Chinese $C8Es after a sur'rise !"S" stri<e Fe?ual to the num2er of undetected Chinese ICBHsG %ill 2e Dero, and it seems far more li<el+ surviva2ilit+ %ould 2e greater than Dero" 7he definitive conclusion that the surviving Chinese ICBHs must 2e Dero is technicall+ %rong as it omits the intelligence deficienc+" 7he uncertainties of the calculations in the 'a'er are much greater and much more serious than indicated 2+ the authors, and certainl+ goes 2e+ond their single scenario of an enem+ target surviving 2ecause a !"S" su2marine commander does not 2elieve his launch order" =o%ever, the greatest concern is that !"S" leaders actuall+ 2elieve that Dero retaliation from China is 'ossi2le, as 'redicted 2+ 9ie2er and 4ress, and 2ehave incautiousl+" Kero retaliation is an illusion+ and if ta,en seriously it !ould "ring dire ris,s to the !nited States"

China already has a se ure se ond#stri,e O 1ie"er and Press are !rong Hichael S" Chase, #ndre% S" 0ri ,son, and Christo'her Tea!, 4rofs W 8aval 5ar College, $e2ruar+ 9%%H, Chinese 7heater and Strategic Hissile $orce
HoderniDation,& Journal of Strategic Studies, v" 32, iss" 1, '" informa 7a<en as a %hole, these changes %ill offer China ne% ca'a2ilities at the strategic and theater nuclear levels and ne% o'tions at the regional conventional %arfighting level" $irst, the hanges under!ay at the strategi level are giving China , 'erha's for the first time, a highly surviva"le strategi nu lear for e. $n ontrast to the assessment 2+ 1ie"er and Press of the vulnera2ilit+ of ChinaJs silo-2ased strategic missiles, Chinese strategists a''ear to 2elieve that some silo# "ased missiles !ould li<el+ survive a first stri,e" Eeterrence %or<s at least in 'art 2ecause the United States ould not "e com'letel+ onfident in its a"ility to lo ate all of the silo#"ased $C8Es" #s 9i Bin 'oints out, J2ecause China has never confirmed nor denied an+ outside estimates a2out the siDe of its long-range nuclear force, it is difficult for the !S to rule out some errors in its estimateJ"01 #ccording to 9i Bin, J7echnicall+ s'ea<ing, it is a relatively simple ountermeasure for China to on eal a fe! a tual $C8Es and to deploy de oy missiles given the large si7e of Chinese territory "J02 Chinese strategists have even 2etter reasons to dou2t that 'otential adversaries %ould 2e a2le to locate and destro+ the Second #rtiller+Js ne% road-mo2ile nuclear forces" Indeed, the diffi ulties the US has en ountered in its previous efforts to lo ate and destroy elusive ground targets, most nota2l+ the JScud-huntingJ cam'aign in the 1001 %ar %ith Ira?, suggest that it !ould "e very diffi ult to lo ate and stri,e ChinaNs road#mo"ile missiles"03 Horeover, these largel+ unsu essful attempts to neutrali7e mo"ile targets too, pla e under ir umstan es far less hallenging than those the US !ould li,ely en ounter in a onfli t !ith China.

The U.S. !on*t "e a"le to find ;F#?1As during a !ar !ith China 5endell Einni ,+ author, commentator, *ournalist, and s'ea<er on militar+ and securit+ issues in #sia, #sia Bureau Chief for Eefense 8e%s, 7a%ain Corres'ondent for Eefense 5ee<l+, #ugust . 9%1%, China Builds $irst
#nti-Shi' Ballistic Hissile Base,&, Eefense 8e%s, htt'())%%%"defensene%s"com)stor+"'h',i-4/3.C.4

The ;F#?1A is ChinaNs first road mo"ile $C8E apa"le of hitting Washington" Before this missile, China relied on aging silo-2ased E$-. ICBHs for use as nuclear counterstri<es on the !"S" As mo"ile missile systems+ they !ill "e diffi ult to lo ate and destroy during a !ar !ith the U.S. 7o add more difficulties for the !"S", the Shaoguan area is near tunneling 'ro*ects through the 8anling Hountains that divide 3uangdong and =unan 'rovinces"

Chinese moderni7ation puts US apa"ilities at ris, O Upgrades are ,ey 5endell Einni ,+ author, commentator, *ournalist, and s'ea<er on militar+ and securit+ issues in #sia, #sia Bureau Chief for Eefense 8e%s, 7a%ain Corres'ondent for Eefense 5ee<l+, Jan 0 9%11, 3ates Clarifies ChinaBs
Stealth Ca'a2ilities&, Eefense 8e%s, htt'())%%%"defensene%s"com)stor+"'h',i-.414014

Han+ of ChinaNs ne! !eapon systems are part of a larger effort to develop anti#a ess area#denial 3A9=A;4 apa"ilities that !ill dis ourage U.S. military for es from intervening in a onfli t over Tai!an " 3ates called ChinaJs investment in #2)#E ca'a2ilities high 'riorit+ areas" K They learly have the potential to put some of our apa"ilities at ris, and !e have to pay attention to them+ !e have to respond appropriately !ith our o!n programs,K he said"

Surveillan e is ,ey to targeting Chinese mo"ile missiles O !ithout it the United States loses U.S. nu lear prima y
James H" #cton, Carnegie, Harch)#'ril 2010, Hanaging :ulnera2ilit+,& $oreign #ffairs, v" A0, no" 2, htt'())%%%"carnegieendo%ment"org)'u2lications)inde;"cfm, fa-vie%Iid-402C4 7he main 'ro2lem %ith 9ie2er and 4ressB argument is that no state actuall+ has a small arsenal consisting solel+ of silo-2ased missiles" China+ Iran, and 8orth Lorea are all fo using on the develo'ment of road#mo"ile missiles Fin fact, the latter t%o do not a''ear to have an+ silo-2ased %ea'ons at allG" #lthough China has ver+ fe% road-mo2ile missiles that could reach !"S" soil, and Iran and 8orth Lorea have none, each countr+ has 'lent+ that could reach the territor+ of <e+ !"S" friends and allies" The hallenge !ith destroying road#mo"ile !eapons is lo ating them" If their location is <no%n, conventional munitions %ill suffice" $f their lo ation is not ,no!n+ even nu lear !eapons are useless Fdiscounting the 'ossi2ilit+ of %ide-area nuclear 2om2ardment, %hich 9ie2er and 4ress %ould 'resuma2l+ not advocateG" 1o ating mo"ile "allisti missiles is ex eptionally hard" #ccording to the 3ulf 5ar #ir 4o%er Surve+ Fan official anal+sis of !"S" #ir $orce o'erations during the 4ersian 3ulf 5arG, the !nited States launched a2out 1,.00 sorties against Scud launchers in Ira? during the 1001 %arN not a single mo2ile launcher %as confirmed destro+ed" 3ranted, !"S" ca'a2ilities and doctrine have im'roved mar<edl+ since then" 8onetheless, it is still fiendishl+ diff ult to lo ate mo"ile missiles hidden "y a !ell#prepared enemy. The "ottom line is that "e ause the "ul, of China*s, IranBs, and 8orth LoreaBs missile for es are mo"ile+ the United States ould not eliminate their entire arsenals !ith a high pro"a"ility. $ncreasing the !nited StatesB a2ilit+ to eliminate onl+ silo2ased %ea'ons %ould add ver+ little to deterrence"

9AC Tes Prima y AT: Lin

U.S. an easily defeat Lin Class su"s O they*re designed to fulfill regional missions and are !ay noisy =ans Iristensen, $#S Securit+ Blog, 11-21-9%%H, ChinaBs 8ois+ 8uclear Su2s,&
htt'())%%%"fas"org)2log)ss')2000)11)su2noise"'h'\more-22A0 China*s ne! Lin# lass "allisti missile su"marine is noisier than the 'ussian ;elta $$$# lass su"marines "uilt more than ?% years ago+ a ording to a re'ort 'roduced 2+ the !"S" 8av+Bs 1ffice of 8aval Intelligence F (&$G" 7he re'ort 7he 4eo'leBs 9i2eration #rm+ 8av+( # Hodern 8av+ 5ith Chinese Characteristics, %hich %as first 'osted on the $#S Secrec+ 8e%s Blog and has since 2een removed from the 18I %e2 site U2ut no% 2ac< hereN than<s BruceV, is to m+ <no%ledge the first official descri'tion made 'u2lic of Chinese and Russian modern nuclear su2marine noise levels" $orce 9evel The report sho!s that China no! has t!o Lin SS8&s, one of %hich is 2ased at =ainan Island %ith the South Sea $leet, along %ith t%o 7+'e 003 Shang-class nuclear-'o%ered attac< su2marines FSS8G" 7he Jin %as first descri2ed at =ainan in $e2ruar+ 200A and the t%o Shangs in Se'tem2er 200A" 7he second Jin SSB8 is 2ased at JianggeDhuang %ith the 8orth Sea $leet alongside the old Zia-class SSB8 and four =an-class SS8s" The report onfirms the existen e of the Type %H5, a third-generation SS8 intended to follo% the 7+'e 003 Shang-class" $ive 7+'e 00.s are e;'ected from around 201." 7he 7+'e-0. is estimated to 2e noisier than the Russian #<ula I SS8 2uilt 20 +ears ago" Hissile Range 7he 18I re'ort states that the J9-2 sea-launched 2allistic missile on the Jin SSB8s has a range of P4,000 nautical miles FP/,400 <mG is ca'a2le of reaching the continental !nited States from Chinese littorals"& 8ot ?uite, unless Chinese littorals e;tend %ell into the Sea of Ja'an" Since the continental !nited States does not include #las<a and =a%aii, a %arhead from a /,400-<m range J9-2 %ould fall into the sea a2out A00 <m from Seattle" # J9-2 carr+ing 'enetration aids in addition to a %arhead %ould 'resuma2l+ have a shorter range" Julang-2 S9BH Range #ccording to 18I #lthough the 18I re'ort states that the Julang-2 can target the Continental !nited States, the range estimate it 'rovides is insufficient to reach the lo%er 4A states or =a%aii" " #las<a %ould 2e in range if the J9-2 is launched from the ver+ northern 'arts of Chinese %aters, 2ut =a%aii is out of range unless the missile is launched from a 'osition close to South Lorea or Ja'an" The !"S" Eefense Ee'artmentBs 2000 report to Congress on the Hilitar+ 4o%er of the 4eo'leBs Re'u2lic of China also sho!s the range of the L1#9 to "e insuffi ient to target the Continental United States or -a!aii from Chinese !aters" 7he L1#9 instead appears to "e a regional !eapon !ith 'otential mission against Russia and India and !"S" 2ases in Guam and Lapan. 4atrol 9evels 7he re'ort also states that Chinese su2marine 'atrols have more than tri'led& over the 'ast fe% +ears, %hen com'ared to the historical levels of the last t%o decades" 7hat sounds li<e a lot, 2ut given that the entire Chinese su2marine fleet in those t%o decades in average conducted fe%er than three 'atrols 'er +ear com2ined, a tri''ling doesnBt amout to a %hole lot for a su2marine fleet of C3 su2marines" #ccording to data o2tained from 18I under $1I#, the 'atrol num2er in 200A %as 12" Since onl+ the most ca'a2le of the Chinese attac< su2marines 'resuma2l+ conduct these 'atrols a%a+ from Chinese %aters O and since China has +et to send one of its 2allistic missile su2marines on 'atrol O that could mean one or t%o 'atrols 'er +ear 'er su2marine" Im'lications The (&$ re'ort on ludes that the Jin SS8& %ith the J9-

2 S9BH gives the P1A &avy its first credi2le se ond#stri,e nuclear apa"ility. The authors must mean in prin iple+ "e ause in a !ar su h noisy su"marines !ould presuma"ly "e highly vulnera"e to U.S. or Lapanese anti#su"marine !arfare for es" F7he noise level of ChinaBs most modern dieselelectric su2marines is another matterN 18I sa+s some are com'ara2le to Russian diesel-electric su2marinesG" 7hat does raise an interesting ?uestion a2out the Chinese SSB8 'rogram( if Chinese leaders are so on erned a"out the vulnera"ility of their nu lear deterrent+ !hy "ase a signifi ant portion of it on a fe! noisy platforms and send them out to sea !here they an "e sun, "y U.S. atta , su"marines in a !ar, #nd if Chinese 'lanners <no% that the sea-2ased deterrent is much more vulnera2le than its land-2ased deterrent, %h+ do the+ %aste mone+ on the SSB8 'rogram, The ans!er is 'ro2a2l+ a com2ination of national prestige and s enarios involving $ndia or 'ussia that have less ca'a2le anti-su2marine forces"

Lin su"marines don*t lead to Chinese se ond stri,e Jeffre+ 1e!is, Eirector of the 8uclear Strateg+ and 8on'roliferation Initiative at the 8e% #merica $oundation, /-31-9%%<, =o% Ca'a2le is the 004, F2)3G,& #rms
Control 5on<, htt'())%%%"armscontrol%on<"com)1./0)ho%-ca'a2le-is-the-004-23 #n+%a+, the 2ottom line is that $ dou"t China*s "oomers !ould really "e more surviva"le than the land#"ased leg of their triad. 7hat reflects three factors( the noise level of the su2marine, the range of the J9-2 and ChinaBs geogra'hic location" =o% Tuiet Is It, The most ommon measure of apa"ility is the amount of noise that the su"marine ma,es" A noisy su"marine is a dead su"marine" I see a lot of com'arisons thro%n around a2out ho% ?uiet ChinBs 003 and 004 su2marines are, %ith com'arisons to the :ictor III and 9os #ngeles-class F!S8 CAAG su2marines" Eata for that is hard to come 2+, 2ut in 100/, the (ffi e of &aval $ntelligen e released a hart omparing the performan e of China*s ne! nu lear po!ered atta , su"marine FSS8G, the %H?+ on !hi h the %HF is said to share a design heritage" 12viousl+, 18I didnBt release an+ num2ers" But than,s to Tom Stefani ,*s lassi Strategi Antisu"marine Warfare and &aval Strategy+ !e an pla e China*s SS8& "et!een 1?%#15% de i"els F%ith a lot of s'ecific ?ualifications outlined on ''2/2-2/0G" 18IBs estimate %as done 2efore %e actuall+ sa% the su2marine, ho%ever" #n interesting com'arison %ould 2e to com'are the volume of the 003 to the :ictor III" Hodern ?uieting involves sound isolating mountsN Stefanic< o2serves a relationshi' 2et%een ?uieting and larger su2marines" Sadl+, I havenBt seen reall+ convincing estimates of the surfaced dis'lacement of the 003 or credi2le dimensions on the su2marine to ma<e a com'arison %ith the :ictor III" It %ould 2e nice if %e had a 'icture of an 003 sitting at the doc<" Could China Conduct Eeterrent 4atrols, The limited range of the L1#9 is a se ond ma)or onstraint" :arious official !S sources 'lace the range as 4.00 miles, 4000 nautical miles or A000 <ilometers" 8#SIC is fond of sa+ing the J9-2 %ill for the first time, allo% Chinese SS8&s to target 'ortions of the !nited States from o'erating areas located near the Chinese coast"& 7he o'erative %ord here is 'ortions [ as in Alas,a. $ may not "e !illing to trade 1os Angeles for Taipei, as Ziong 3uang<ai For %hoeverG suggested, "ut An horage is another story" 1r, at least, the Chinese have to %orr+ a2out that" To target ities in C(&US O say our latte si''ing friends in Seattle, for instance>Chinese "oomers !ould have to patrol the deep !aters of the &orth Pa ifi O a very long

round#trip" Indeed, 18IBs suggestion that five su2marines %ould 2e necessar+ to <ee' onl+ a near continuous& deterrent at sea suggests 18IBs anal+sts have reached similar conclusions a2out the distance of 'atrolling areas from ChinaBs su2marine 2ases" FHore on that 2elo%G" Another o'erational on ern that points to &orth Pa ifi patrols is the need to hold at ris, "oth Eos o! and 'o'ulations centers in the Continental United States. 7he actual o'erating area might 2e slightl+ larger if ChinaBs leaders %ere %illing to have su2marines 'atrol out of range of some targets until receiving the order to fire" To rea h the &orth Pa ifi + a Chinese "oomer !ould have to transit the narro! gaps "et!een South Iorea+ Lapan+ and Tai!an O a <ind of #sian e?uivalent of the 3I!L ga'>to reach areas in the 8orth 4acific from %hich the J9-2 could target significant 'ortions of the !nited States" This island hain offers a num"er of opportunities for fixed sensor empla ements, similar to the S1S!S s+stem, that should provide ample opportunity for US atta , su"marines and other US and Lapanese ASW platforms to pi , up and trail the "oomer on patrol " #lthough I %asnBt cleared the see the good stuff during m+ stint on the Ja'an des< at 1SE, a revie% of 'ress re'orting suggests a high level of <no%ledge a2out Chinese su2marine o'erations in and around Ja'anese %aters" (n e out in the deep !ater+ Chinese SS&s and SS8&s !ould "e extremely vulnera"le "e ause deep !ater propagates sound very effe tively" Stefanic< estimates the 1os Angeles# lass su"marine has a 95#1%% nm dete tion advantage over the 2i tor $$$+ !hi h is pro"a"ly 6uieter than the 003 and %HF class su2marines" 7hat reminds of a line in that sill+ e-mail a2out Chuc< 8orris( If +ou can see Chuc< 8orris, Chuc< 8orris can see +ou" If +ou canBt see Chuc< 8orris, +ou ma+ 2e onl+ seconds a%a+ from death" Re'lace see& and Chuc< 8orris& %ith hear& and 9os #ngeles-class& and no% :irginia-class& su2marines" Range is *ust one of the o'erational concerns, of course" China %ould also have to thin< a2out secure, surviva2le communications s+stems for 'atrolling 2oomers" 7his is long to'ic, ho%ever, and 2rings u' much larger discussion a2out command and control issues" =ainan Island, #lthough the Boomer %as s'otted u' 8orth, near Ealian, some fol<s thin< China %ill eventuall+ 2ase the SSB8 at or near the Rulin 8aval Base on =ainan Island" I %as s<e'tical that China %ould 2ase the SSB8 so far south" Indeed, I %ould have thought that 2asing the su2marine so from from a 'atrolling area against 8orth #merican targets %ould suggest a Russia-oriented role for the 004" But 18I and others, ho%ever, seem to 2elieve that the 004 %ill ma<e the 0,000 <m roundtri' 2et%een =ainan Island and the 'atrolling area that I outlined" Assuming that the su"marine travels a"out 1% ,nots F1A-10 <m)hourG to avoid cavitation that %ould com'romise the location of the su2marine, the round trip from -ainan to the patrolling area ta,es a"out 1% days ea h !ay Fthe tri' is a2out 4300 <mG" #ssuming the 004 has an A0 da+ endurance, that leaves a C0 da+ 'atrol" #ll of a sudden, that 18I estimate of . su2marines to maintain a near continuous& 'resence ma<es sense" . su2marines for a si;t+ da+ 'atrol %or<s out to a2out 300 da+s a +ear" 4ossi2l+ 18I estimates that the SSB8Bs have a little more endurance or that the S<i''ers are %illing to run a fe% more ris<s to get on station" But the num2ers %or< out a2out right" Someone told Eemetri Sevasto'ulo that 2asing the 004 on =ainan Island %ould give its su2marines easier 'assage and ma<e them harder to trac< and target"& 6asier isnBt the same thing as eas+" 7he su2marine still has to 'ass through the 9uDon Straitm %hich is relativel+ narro% F3C0 <ilometers, 2ro<en into smaller 'assages 2+ several islandsG" #dmittedl+, the 9uDon Strait is a com'le; littoral environment %ith lots of shi''ing noise in %hich Chinese 2oomers

could hide and get out to sea" But the &avy an still study+ model and line !ith the Strait !ith sensors. This fa t is not lost on the (ffi e of &aval 'esear h+ !hi h seems to "e very interested in the .uni6ue o eanography o"served in the South China Sea& and seems to have funded a fair amount of research including the #sian Seas International #coustics 6;'eriment F#SI#6ZG, 5ind+ Islands Soliton 6;'eriment F5IS6G and god <no%s %hat else" #nd, of course, once through the 9uDon Strait, a s<i''er still has the 'ro2lem that dee' %ater 'ro'agates sound" We might need a fe! more "oats to get this done FI havenBt done an estimateG, "ut $ find it diffi ult to imagine pro"lems that ould not "e solved "y giving Re'resentative Courtney his extra atta , su"marine for his district" 1n the other hand, if China envisioned the 004 as solel+ a deterrent against Russia, the o'erational challenges for the 004 are less daunting" Hosco% is in range of shallo% offshore areas that are near ChinaBs naval 2ases and far a%a+ from RussiaBs su2marine and other #S5 forces" 7he fact that China is 2uilding an SSB8 %ith su2stantial Russian assistance that seems far more 2etter suited to stri<ing Hosco% [ %ell that stri<es me as a 'rett+ decent indicator of the degree to %hich technological im'eratives O rather than o'erational re?uirements O continue to drive the SSB8 'rogram" # Surge Strateg+, 5ere China to <ee' a deterrent on 'atrol in the 8orthern 4acific, I %ould e;'ect that the United States &avy !ould "e 6uite apa"le of dete ting the su"marine oming out of port and trailing it on patrolDa"sent riminal negligen e on their 'art or, more li<el+,

9AC AT: &o U.S. First Stri,e

Eore eviden e O fear proves Leir 1ie"er, #ssistant 4rofessor of 4olitical Science at the !niversit+ of 8otre Eame, and Ear+l Press+ #ssociate 4rofessor of 3overnment at Eartmouth College, Jul+)#ugust 9%%<, Su'eriorit+ Com'le;,& 7he #tlantic,
htt'())%%%"theatlantic"com)doc)200/0/)china-nu<es $inall+, the notion that the United States !ould never onsider a disarming atta , 2ecause of the ris< of failure underestimates the po!er of fear during a risis. Fa ing 1G alerted Chinese $C8Es+ U.S. leaders may ta,e a tions that seemed too ris,y to contem'late during pea etime" # %ar game is not %ar, of course, and it is im'ossi2le to <no% ho% a nuclear standoff, over 7ai%an or an+ other flash 'oint, %ould unfold in real life . It is e?uall+ hard to <no% %hat ChinaBs leaders>the current ones or their successors>%ill decide a2out their deterrent 'osture" But it %ould 2e a 2ig mista<e to assume that China %ill 2e satisfied %ith a small arsenal" #s China 2ecomes a true great 'o%er and ado'ts a 2roader set of glo2al interests, and as !"S" militar+ 're'arations>conventional and nuclear>focus increasingl+ on China, leaders in Bei*ing %ill li<el+ gro% more and more uncomforta2le living in the shado% of #merican nuclear 'rimac+"

Suffi ient to over ome the nu lear ta"oo Leir 1ie"er, #ssistant 4rofessor of 4olitical Science at the !niversit+ of 8otre Eame, and Ear+l Press+ #ssociate 4rofessor of 3overnment at Eartmouth College, S'ring 9%%J, 7he 6nd of H#E,,& International Securit+,
htt'())2elfercenter"<sg"harvard"edu)files)is3004M''00/-044Mlie2er'ress"'df We offer three responses to this argument. First+ even if the laims a"out the nu lear ta"oo are orre t+ they merely mitigate one of the dangerous onse6uen es of U.S. nu lear prima y: the temptation for preventive U.S. nu lear atta ,s. The ta"oo argument is that leaders !ill "e highly relu tant to use their nu lear !eaponsDnot that they !ill trust others to refrain from resorting to nu lear !ar. $n fa t+ the 'eriod of the alleged nuclear ta2oo>from the mid- 10C0s to the 'resent/0>encom'asses the decades in %hich the !nited States and the Soviet !nion %ent to their greatest lengths to 'rotect their nuclear arsenals from disarming attac<sN the+ %ere 2oth clearl+ afraid of an enem+ nuclear stri<e" 7hus, even if the ta2oo argument %ere correct, there is little reason to 2elieve that it %ill dissuade Russia and China from underta<ing strenuous efforts to mitigate their gro%ing nuclear vulnera2ilit+, there2+ inadvertentl+ increasing the danger of nuclear accidents, arms racing, and crisis insta2ilit+ . Se ond+ there are good evidentiary reasons for 6uestioning the strength of the nu lear ta"oo. A leading s holar of the ta"oo+ &ina Tannen!ald+ argues that it had "e ome institutionali7ed !ithin the U.S. government "y the "eginning of the 1HJ%s and !as reVe ted in the poli ies of the Iennedy administration. Tannen!ald argues that President Iennedy and Se retary of ;efense 'o"ert E &amara found the idea of using nu lear !eapons largely .unthin,# a"le./ She ites E &amara*s laims in his memoirs that he .!ould never advise the president to use nu lear !eapons Wrst./G% &e!ly de lassiWed do uments+ ho!ever+ reveal

dis repan ies "et!een the vie!s that E &amara and others held during the 1HJ%s and the vie!s they later professed in their memoirs. For example+ in 1HJ? E &amara and Iennedy dis ussed U.S. options if China atta ,ed $ndia for a se ond time. $n audio re ordings+ E &amara is heard to say+ .8efore any su"stantial ommitment to defend $ndia against China is given+ !e should re ogni7e that in order to arry out that ommitment against any su"stantial Chinese atta ,+ !e !ould have to use nu lear !eapons. Any large Chinese Communist atta , on any part of that area !ould re6uire the use of nu lear !eapons "y the U.S.+ and this is to "e preferred over the introdu tion of large num"ers of U.S. soldiers./ 8ut rather than shrin, "a , from the prospe t of using nu lear !eapons+ Iennedy replied+ .We should defend $ndia+ and therefore !e !ill defend $ndia/ if atta ,ed. G1 (ne might argue that these !ere merely poli y dis ussions and did not+ after all+ reVe t a tual "ehavior+ "ut it is difW ult to see a nu lear ta"oo permeating these deli"erations. (ther eviden e from the Iennedy administration also asts dou"t on the strength of the nu lear ta"oo. For example+ at the pea, of the 8erlin risis of 1HJ1+ senior ivilians in the White -ouse !or,ed !ith the Loint Chiefs of Staff to modify U.S. nu lear !ar plans to improve the han es of a su essful Wrst stri,e.G9 This !as not merely the !or, of midlevel "ureau rats. Their !or, led President Iennedy himself to notify the Loint Chiefs of Staff in Septem"er 1HJ1 that he !anted a "rieWng the next day on the U.S. military*s a"ility to laun h a surprise nu lear disarming stri,e on the Soviet Union. Far from "eing a purely hypotheti al interest+ Iennedy*s message to the Loint Chiefs said that he !anted this information immediately "e ause .8erlin developments may onfront us !ith a situation !here !e may desire to ta,e the initiative in the es alation of onVi t from the lo al to the general !ar level./G? .General !ar/ !as a euphemism for nu lear !ar. Eoreover+ even s holars !ho argue that there is a po!erful ta"oo agree that nu lear !eapons may "e used in high# sta,es rises. The entral laim a"out the nu lear ta"oo is that it inhi"its the use of nu lear !eapons "ut does not prevent it. The impli ation is that in future high#sta,es rises+ U.S. leaders may onsider initiating nu lear !ar )ust as they did in the past. #nd to avoid such circumstances, !"S" adversaries %ill %or< hard to mitigate their vulnera2ilit+" Some scholars of the nu lear ta"oo appear to agree !ith our analysis on this point+ !orrying that the statements+ dis ourse+ and a tual nu lear !eapons poli ies emerging from the George W. 8ush administration ould seriously !ea,en the nu lear ta"oo.GF As Tannen!ald !rites+ the nu lear ta"oo !ould "e espe ially damaged .if the nu lear do trines of nu lear states ontinue to emphasi7e nu lear !eapons as an important instrument of national se urity and even develop ne! roles for them/A if !e see the .development of ne! generations of Xmini#nu,es* that "lur the line "et!een onventional and nu lear !eapons+ thus lo!ering the threshold for nu lear use/A or if the United States ontinues !ith .loose tal, a"out the potential utility of nu lear !eapons./ G5 Tannen!ald remains hopeful that "oth strategi and normative fa tors !ill mitigate against these developments+ "ut others are less optimisti that the 8ush administration !ill shift ourse in its nu lear poli y or dis ourse.GJ

9AC Tes Spa e ;e"ris

Spa e de"ris is at its tipping point O A ollision ould threaten GPS a ura y =eidi 8la,e, investigative re'orter for 7he Eail+ 7elegra'h, 2)1)20 11, S'ace so
full of *un< that a satellite collision could destro+ communications on 6arth&,7he Eail+ 7elegra'h, htt'())%%%"telegra'h"co"u<)science)s'ace)A20..4C)S'ace-so-fullof-*un<-that-a-satellite-collision-could-destro+-communications-on-6arth"html 7he volume of a"andoned ro ,ets+ shattered satellites and missile shrapnel in the 0arth*s or"it is rea hing a .tipping point& and is no% threatening the @2.0 2illion F]1/42nG s'ace services industr+, scientists said" A single ollision "et!een t!o satellites or large pie es of .spa e )un,/ ould send thousands of 'ieces of de2ris s'inning into or2it, each ca'a2le of destroying further satellites" Glo"al positioning systems, international 'hone connections, television signals and !eather fore asts are among the services %hich are at ris< of crashing to a halt" This . hain rea tion/ ould leave some or"its so cluttered %ith de2ris that the+ 2ecome unusa"le for ommer ial or military satellites, the !S Eefense Ee'artmentJs interim S'ace 4osture Revie% %arned last +ear" 7here are also fears that large 'ieces of de2ris could threaten the lives of astronauts in s'ace shuttles or at the International S'ace Station"

Studies sho! spa e de"ris a ount of half of the ollision ris,s Simon Collard-Wexler et. al", Senior Research 1fficer, International Securit+
Research and 1utreach 4rogramme, Ee'artment of $oreign #ffairs and International 7rade, Canada, S'ace Securit+ 20%J, htt'())%%%"s'acesecurit+"org)SSI200C"'df Hedia re'orts a2out a forthcoming 8#S# stud+ reveal that the ris, posed "y or"ital de"ris to spa e raft may "e higher than previously thought " 9ea<ed information from the stud+ suggests that shuttles no! fa e a 1#in#5F to 1-in-113 chance of "eing destroyed "y spa e de"ris" 7his is much greater than the stated 8#S# 'rogram goals of a 1-in-200 chance"0. In addition, 8#S# found that spa e de"ris a ounts for half of the ris, asso iated %ith s'aceflights and ollisions %ith s'ace de2ris account for 11 of the 20 'ro2lems that could 2e most fatal to a shuttle and its cre%"0C Because there is disagreement %ithin 8#S# as to the li<elihood of a fatal collision 2et%een s'ace de2ris and the shuttle, 8#S# officials 'lan to conduct further stud+ to 'rovide more clarit+"0/

Spa e de"ris destroys our GPS satellites 9ori S heet7, J"E" Candidate, 3eorgeto%n !niversit+ 9a% Center, 3eorgeto%n
International 6nvironmental 9a% Revie% 3eorgeto%n International 6nvironmental 9a% Revie% $all, 20%J 10 3eo" IntJl 6nvtl" 9" Rev" ./, Infusing 6nvironmental 6thics into the S'ace 5ea'ons Eialogue, !ltimatel+, these ollisions could lead to a hain rea tion, reating a halo of de"ris and ma,ing spa e virtually unusa"le for 'eaceful 'ur'oses, such as communications and GPS satellites" nA.$urthermore, spa e de"ris ould harm or destroy urrent militar+ spa e appli ations and thus actuall+ com'romise the use of s'ace for national securit+ 'ur'oses" Steven Hirmina, a senior attorne+ %ith 8#S#, asserts, KEaintaining the environment of outer spa e for future use may also "e considered an issue of national se urity" If certain or2its in outer s'ace 2ecome so laden %ith de2ris that the+ are no longer usa2le, the !"S" ma+ encounter difficult+ in achieving some of its national securit+ goals"K

Pre#emptive avoidan e of de"ris only !ay to solve O on e it*s there+ there*s no !ay to re over Loel '. Prima , and &an y 0llen A"rams+ Physi s ;epartment+ University of California+ Santa Cru7+ C-11-20%9 .Star 5ars $orever, > #
Cosmic 4ers'ective& htt'())'h+sics"ucsc"edu)cosmo)!86SC1r"'df Spa e is the most fragile environment that exists 2ecause it has the least a2ilit+ to re'air itself" 1nl+ the 6arthBs atmos'here can remove satellites from or2it" 5hen the sun flares u' in its eleven +ear c+cle, it heats the u''er atmos'here and ma<es it e;'and so that de2ris and s'acecraft in lo% or2its are su2*ected to increased drag" But the higher the original or2it, the less air there is to collide %ith" 8ear-6arth s'ace is alread+ at ris< from human activities, and it is in great need of 'rotection 2+ scientists and humanit+ at large"1 5e s ientists should "e espe ially on erned+ "oth "e ause !e pla e many ru ial s ientifi instruments in near-6arth spa e, and also 2ecause !e are in a uni6ue position to foresee the pro"lems human a tivities are ausing and to propose measures to mitigate or avoid them" In 'articular, scientists need to em'hasiDe that a %ar in s'ace could create a 2attlefield that %ill last forever, encasing our entire 'lanet in a shell of !hi77ing de"ris that 2 !ill thereafter ma,e spa e near the 6arth highl+ ha7ardous for 'eaceful as %ell as militar+ 'ur'oses" Hillions of land mines left from earlier %ars in #fghanistan and other countries can eventuall+ 2e removed, 2ut de2ris in or2it higher than a2out A00 <m a2ove the 6arthBs surface %ill 2e u' there for decades, a2ove 1000 <m for centuries, and a2ove 1.00 <m effectivel+ forever" 1ver 0000 o2*ects larger than 10 cm in diameter are currentl+ trac<ed, and there are 'ro2a2l+ more than 100,000 'ieces of or2iting de2ris larger than a mar2le" But cro%ded near-6arth or2its are %here the Bush administration %ants to 'ut 'arts of its 'ro'osed missile defense s+stem such as S'ace-Based 9asers and thousands of Brilliant 4e22les& s'ace-2ased interce'tor missiles" Such %ea'ons are for2idden 2+ the 10/2 #nti-Ballistic Hissile F#BHG 7reat+, 2ut on 13 Eecem2er 2001 4resident 3eorge 5" Bush unilaterall+ announced his intention to %ithdra% from this treat+" Ha+2e the reason missile defense has gotten as far as it has is that so fe% 'eo'le understand the la%s of 'h+sics" But these la%s, unli<e human la%s, are immuta2le" 5e can ignore them, 2ut %e cannot esca'e them" 7he nic<name Star 5ars& for missile defense all too accuratel+ reflects the 'o'ular fantas+ im'ression of ho% things %or< in s'ace" In the Star 5ars movies and in hundreds of other 'o'ular s ien e fi tion films+ !e see things "lo! up in spa e and the fragments 6ui ,ly dissipate+ leaving spa e lear again. 8ut in reality+ spa e never lears after an explosion near our planet. The fragments ontinue ir ling the 0arth+ their or"its rossing those of other o")e ts. 4aint chi's, lost 2olts, 'ieces of e;'loded roc<ets>all have alread+ 2ecome tin+ satellites, traveling a2out 1/,000 miles 'er hour, ten times faster than a high-'o%ered rifle 2ullet" There is no "u ,et !e ould ever put up there to at h them" Anything they hit !ill "e destroyed and only in rease the de"ris" # mar2le traveling at that s'eed %ould hit %ith the energ+ of a one-ton safe dro''ed from a three-stor+ 2uilding" 5ith enough or2iting de2ris, 'ieces %ill 2egin to hit other 'ieces, fragmenting them into 'ieces, %hich %ill in turn hit more 'ieces, setting off a chain reaction of destruction that %ill leave a lethal halo around the 6arth" To operate a satellite !ithin this loud of millions of tin+ missiles !ould "e ome impossi"le( no more =u22le S'ace 7elesco'es or International S'ace Stations" 6ven the higher communications and GPS satellites !ould "e

endangered" 6ver+ 'erson %ho cares a2out the human future in s'ace should also realiDe that militariDing s'ace *eo'ardiDes the 'ossi2ilit+ of s'ace e;'loration"

RRRST0E 0ST0&S$(&S

9AC Constellation Iey to ST0E

&ASA missions are more important to the future of the students than anything else Christo'her ;a!son, a freelance %riter and consultant %ith +ears of e;'erience in educational technolog+ and %e2-2ased s+stems, 1-31- 9%1%+ Constellation
'rogram cut( s'ace race no more,& Snet, htt'())%%%"Ddnet"com)2log)education)constellation-'rogram-cut-s'ace-race-nomore)3.AA 7he !S s'ace 'rogram costs 2illions and 2illions of dollars" 5i<i'edia 'uts the figure at @1/"3 2illion for fiscal +ear 200A and that num2er clim2s to @1A"/ 2illion in $R10" 7he !S Ee'artment of 6ducation has a 2udget *ust south of @/0 2illion Fsa+ing nothing of the state 2udgets, %here the 2ul< of education funding falls in the StatesG" 4resident 12ama is ordering a revie% of the multi2illion dollar of the &asa Constellation program planned to return humans to the moon. 7his 'rogram is alread+ over 2udget and running %ell 2ehind schedule" Same goes for the S'ace Shuttle re'lacement 'rogram, %hich is no% e;'ected to cost @40 2illion" #m I suggesting that %e should redirect this mone+ to education #2solutel+ notY 1n the contrar+, $ thin, its time for another Spa e 'a e" I dug u' an interesting article 'osted at the !niversit+ of Hontana highlighting the effects of the S'ace Race on education in the 10.0s" 1n 1cto2er 4, 10./, %ith the launch of S'utni< 1 2+ the Soviet !nion, the %orld entered the S'ace #ge and the !nited States 2ecame ?uite concerned that the Soviet !nion had a head start in the s'ace race" # +ear later, realiDing that the support of gifted and talented mathemati s and s ien e students !as riti al to national se urity+ the !nited States federal government 'assed the 8ational Eefense 6ducation #ct F8E6#G, providing aid to edu ation in the United States at all levels+ primarily to stimulate the advan ement of edu ation in s ien e+ mathemati s+ and modern foreign languages. 12viousl+, our com'etitors no% are a num2er of #sian and 6astern 6uro'ean nations Famong othersG, 2ut %e are com'eting for much more than access to s'ace or even to %in the Cold 5ar" 7his doesnBt need to 2e a2out getting to the moon 2efore ChinaN rather, it needs to "e a"out inspiring students and reating the utter sense of urgen y !e need in edu ation to push our students and improve !hat !e do. $t should "e a"out inspiring students and tea hers to em"ra e math+ s ien e+ and engineering edu ation. $f it ta,es many "illions more devoted to "oth &ASA and edu ation+ then that*s a small pri e to pay to "ring a ne! generation of "rilliant s ientists and mathemati ians to the forefront of edu ation+ resear h+ and industry. Cutting Constellation ,ills not only US leadership spa e "ut also in te hnology and ST0E (lson *1% F4ete, !S Re' R-7e;as =ouse Science and 7echnolog+ Committee, Reversing s'ace in s'ace e;'loration, 3)1)10, htt'())thehill"com)s'ecialre'orts)science-a-math-march-2010)A4340-reversing-decline-in-s'ace-e;'loration& C)2C)11G In res'onding to the com'etitive glo2al econom+, China and $ndia don*t

hesitate to en ourage their top students to pursue s ien e and

math areers. 7he+ <no% that it is this e;'ertise that %ill dictate their countriesB futures" Unfortunately+ these are the areers in !hi h Ameri a is losing ground+ alling into 6uestion our o!n future. The pro"lems !ith U.S. test s ores and !ith re ruiting talented tea hers in the s ien e+ math and engineering fields are !ell pu"li i7ed. U.S. students lag !ell "ehind their Asian and $ndian ounterparts+ and !e ris, losing the level of ex ellen e in s ien e resear h and innovation ne essary to meet the needs of the future. =arvard !niversit+
and man+ other to' colleges recruit the to' Chinese students to 2e educated here" 5h+, Because Chinese students are laser-focused on a to' education and their test scores reflect that" !nfortunatel+, after those students receive the to'-tier #merican education the+ %ill return to their home countr+ and %e %ill not 2enefit from their <no%ledge" 5e have students graduating from high school needing remedial math courses to 2egin college-level math" 5e have a shortage of teachers a2le to ins'ire +oung minds" 5e have de-em'hasiDed the 'ursuit of solving difficult 'ro2lems and seem to choose 'aths of least resistance" While the solutions to those pro"lems may re6uire

a great national epiphany+ !e do see the small "ut important steps ta,ing pla e every day a ross Ameri a. The Lohnson Spa e Center in -ouston hosts several programs in !hi h employees volunteer their time to mentor students in math+ s ien e and engineering. In 8ashville, a
coordinated effort 2et%een local schools and :ander2ilt !niversit+ offers free tuition to students %ho s'ecialiDe in math and science and go into teaching those su2*ects" In California and 8e% Ror<, the Hath for #merica& FHf#G 'rogram is a com2ination of 'rivate and 'u2lic resources esta2lishing incentives for students to go into math instruction" 4artici'ants in the Hf# fello%shi' 'rogram earn a masterBs degree in education and commit to five +ears of teaching math in 'u2lic secondar+ schools" 7he fello%shi' also 'rovides a full tuition scholarshi' and an annual sti'end of u' to @100,000 over five +ears, as %ell as mentoring and 'rofessional develo'ment services" 7hese innovative initiatives encourage and ins'ire students to 2ecome the 'athfinders %ho %ill sho% us the %a+ for%ard" 7hese +oung leaders %ill scale greater heights in critical careers that %ill hel' develo' ne% technologies in healthcare, science and engineering" 7he federal government can actuall+ hel' in achieving this goal as %ell" ="R" /0. %ill 'rovide ta; incentives for students %ho go into elementar+ education in math, science and technolog+" 7hese ta; incentives, as %ell as %ell-coordinated 'u2lic-'rivate 'artnershi's, are critical in ma<ing u' lost ground and encouraging students to 'ursue degrees and careers in math, science and technolog+" 7here is another o''ortunit+ for our nation, through the government, to have a role in this solution" 5e must full+ commit to our nationBs human s'ace 'rogram" A ro"ust

national spa e program "oth maintains our glo"al leadership in human spa e exploration+ and inspires generations of young minds to reate the next level of Ameri an superiority. China and $ndia are demonstrating their ommitment to human spa e exploration" #s it stands no%, President 8ara , ("ama*s "udget is putting the U.S.+ the glo"al leader in spa e exploration+ firmly into fourth pla e. Without a manned spa e program+ !e !ill "e for ed to pay 'ussia over U5% million a person to ta,e our astronauts to the $nternational Spa e Station and "eyond. 7he !nited States has 2een a 2eacon of cutting-edge technolog+ %hen
it comes to 'ioneering the 'ath in science and s'ace e;'loration" 5e %ere the first to set foot on the moon 2ecause %e made a national commitment to 2eing first and 2eing the 2est" 7hatBs %hat #merica does" 5e must continue that investment so our ne;t generation rea's the 2enefits of e;cellence in science, math and engineering" =uman s'ace e;'loration is an im'ortant 'art of that national 'lan"

There is still time to orre t our national de line in "oth edu ation and spa e exploration. They go hand in hand. $t re6uires a national ommitment D "oth pu"li and private. 7hatBs #merica at itBs 2est and thatBs %hat
%ill <ee' us on to'"

Iilling Constellation ;estroys &ASA morale and hurts ST0E s,ills in Ameri a*s s hools Iu7net7 X1%F9a%rence = LuDnetD, 4h"E Senior Scientist, 2)22)10, 7he 6nd of =uman S'aceflight,&, htt'())%%%"americas'ace"org),'-122A, C)2C)11G
7here are *o2s and there are *o2s" #s far as the+ go, I ha''en to have a great one( comforta2l+ 'aid, good 2enefits, terrific 'ro*ects and I %or< %ith the smartest, most dedicated team of 'eo'le on or off the 'lanet" I sa+ off 2ecause IJm 'art of a team that does dangerous things to ver+ e;'ensive 'eo'le" I hel' 2uild intelligent s'acesuits for 8#S#, ones that tell astronauts ever+thing from ho% much life su''ort the+Jve got left to ho% fast the+ have to %al< to get 2ac< to Base alive to %hen to eat and drin< F+es the+ tal<G" But %hat ha''ened $e2ruar+ 1st %as a sea change im'acting m+ *o2 and the e;traordinar+ team thatJs 2een at 8#S# since 10.A" 7hat %as the da+ the 4resident <illed 4ro*ect Constellation, the 'rogram that %ould have returned us to the Hoon and ta<en us to Hars" 7here have 2een other initiatives li<e this of course, 2ut none of them made it this far, to the 'oint of Kcutting metal,K as %e sa+ and 'assing a landmar< flight test F#res 1; last summerG" 7he reason given, #n unsustaina2le 'ath %ith not enough funding 2ehind it" 7hatJs al%a+s the reason given for a succession of a2orted 'rograms that has Congress and the 'eo'le %ondering if human s'aceflight isnJt a colossal %aste" Cases in 'oint( #'ollo Hoon 9anding 'rogram( cancelled %ith 3 flights remaining due to :ietnam %ar S<+la2( a2andoned and left to 2urn u' in or2it" FS<+la2 %as as 2ig as a large 3 BR house %ith man+ of the ca'a2ilities of toda+Js International S'ace Station FISSG S'ace Shuttle( originall+ conceived %ith a s'ace station that didnJt fl+ until 1A +ears later International S'ace Station( a''roved 2+ 4resident Reagan in 10A4 at a 'ro*ected cost of @AB" Fnearing com'letion 2C +ears later at a cost of over @100B"G Strategic 6;'loration Initiative FS6IG( 9unar Hars 'rogram introduced %ith much fanfare in 10A0 on the ste's of 7he Smithsonian 2+ 3= Bush" #2andoned still2orn %ithin 2 +ears Z3A emergenc+ cre% return vehicle( Eesigned to 2ring 2ac< cre%s from ISS at a reduced cost, 2uilt 2+ 8#S# em'lo+ees and a2andoned in 2002 after a successful test at a cost of @1)2 Billion EC-Z( Hcdonnel -Eouglas single stage to or2it 'ro*ect( canceled after / +ears and @1)2 Billion

0very one of these programs from 1H<9 to 9%1% ran !ell over "udget and s hedule. ThatNs !hat happens !hen money is only ommitted a year at a time in the annual "udget s6uee7e &ASA is su")e ted to. Thin, a"out it. Would you put your ompany through an ex ru iating "udget revie! ea h year that plays havo !ith your people+ parts and orders and ta,es months to ompleteM $t may !or, for -U; or ;(T "ut not for an agen y that "uilds "ig things li,e spa e raft. ThatNs !hy 'ussia+ China and most ma)or orporations do it in ?#5 years y les instead of 1+ to get tra tion and sta"ility. 7he one e;ce'tion %as #'ollo" 5h+, Be it from S'utni<, the cold %ar, J$LJs sheer %ill, or a
after a successful test flight Constellation( cancelled after . +ears at a cost of @7BE Billions 'rograms lac<ed"

confluence of all these event %hich ma+ never 2e re'eated, #'ollo had the commitment and funding all su2se?uent

When President ("ama ,illed Pro)e t Constellation+ he ,illed more than a "udget overrun. Constellation represented many things. Rising from the ashes of the Colum2ia Shuttle accident li<e a 4hoeni;, it !as a !ell thought out plan to explore the heavens in timely logi al steps. Using the moon as )umping off point+ it !ould have ta,en us to Ears "y 9%?%+ the only ,no!n planet !here !e an live self suffi iently if an asteroid perils 0arth and far more inspiring to young and old ali,e than any other destination in our solar system 3there have "een more hits on the &ASA Ears !e"sites than people on 0arth. But Constellation %as far more than that, it !as meant to reinvigorate a &ASA team gro!ing old and !orn do!n "y the promise of false starts. 1ne of those people "ro,e do!n and ried at an all#hands meeting alled "y the ne! Administrator Charlie 8olden to reassure us of the future. 5e all cried %ith her and it did e;actl+ the o''osite" Constellation !as also meant to improve ST0E 3s ien e+ te hnology+ engineering and math4 s,ills at our s hools "y inspiring the youth of Ameri a !ith the dream of exploring the osmos. $nstead it has "een repla ed "y in the !ords of one of those students+ >a ne"ulous program of loudy goals that

!ill inspire no one and pro"a"ly "e ut any!ay.>

Han+ of us at 8#S# %orr+ that this so-called Kfle;i2le 'lanK %ill end u' in the same grave+ard as its 'redecessorsN and that %eJre a2andoning the S'ace Shuttle at the a'e; of its evolution to%ards safet+ leaving us %ith no access to s'ace or re'airing large com'onents of the ISS as it did the =u22le S'ace telesco'e" #nd most of all %e as< %h+ a2andon the vision, If +ou donJt li<e the com'onents, +ou fi; or re'lace them" Rou donJt <ill a 7o+ota 2ecause it has a 2ad gas 'edal"

Ta,en together+ !e fear human spa eflight itself is doomed+ that the government tosses UG%%8 "ailouts around li,e Fris"ees "ut treats 1 or 9 8 more to &ASA li,e tossing manhole overs. 8#S# cost the
soon have to decide if itJs %orth it" It the+ decide it is not,

#merican ta;'a+er a2out 0"/ cents of their ta; dollar and the #merican 'u2lic, Congress and the 5hite =ouse %ill

!e !ill "e remem"ered "y future generations not for our literature or our arts+ "ut as the generation that !al,ed the Eoon+ visited Saturn+ then a"andoned our 2ision and turned our athedrals of flight into amusement par,s.K

9AC 1a"or Shortage O General

-ighly s,illed la"or shortage oming O "a"y "oomer retirement Je2 8ush, former governor of $lorida, 6d%ard Alden, Bernard 9" Sch%artD senior fello% at the Council on $oreign Relations, s'ecialiDing in !"S" com'etitiveness, and 7homas $" E 1arty III, former 5hite =ouse Chief of Staff for !S 4resident Bill Clinton, 9%%H, !"S" Immigration 4olic+,& Council on $oreign Relations,
%%%"cfr"org)content)'u2lications)attachments)ImmigrationM7$RC3"'df 7he 7as< $orce 2elieves that the osts of losing preeminen e in attra ting talented immigrants !ould "e very high. The United States has hit a plateau in the num"ers of Ameri an students graduating !ith advan ed degrees+ 'articularl+ in scientific and technical fields" Indeed, the num2er of science and engineering 4hEs earned 2+ !"S" citiDens has fallen 2+ more than 20 'ercent in the 'ast decade" 9? The United States !ill fa e an a elerating shortage of highly s,illed !or,ers as the "ul, of the "a"y "oom generation starts heading into retirement" In 200C, there !ere more holders of master*s+ professional+ and do toral degrees among the age fifty#five to fifty#nine ohort+ !hi h is nearing retirement+ than among the thirty to thirty#four ohort" Hore %orrisome, this stagnation in the edu ational a hievement levels of Ameri ans has ome at a time !hen many other ountriesDSouth Lorea, Canada, Ja'an, $rance, S'ain, and others> have ontinued to expand the share of their populations re eiving higher edu ation.

US e onomi leadership is ollapsing no! "e ause of the ST0E gap Harvin Cetron, 'resident of forecasing international 9td and 1ven ;avies, science anal+st and former senior editor of 1mni magaDine, A- 9%1%, 7rends
Sha'ing 7omorro%Js 5orld forces in the natural and Institutional environment,& 7he $uturist, :ol" 44, 8o" 4 The United States is losing its s ientifi and te hni al leadership to other countries" ^ KThe scientific and technical "uilding "lo ,s of our e onomi leadership are eroding at a time !hen many other nations are gathering strength,K the 8ational #cadem+ of Sciences %arns" K#lthough man+ 'eo'le assume that the !nited States %ill al%a+s 2e a %orld leader in science and technolog+, this ma+ not continue to 2e the case inasmuch as great minds and ideas e;ist throughout the %orld" We fear the a"ruptness !ith !hi h a lead in s ien e and te hnology an "e lost##and the diffi ulty of re overing a lead on e lost+ if indeed it an "e regained at all"K ^ #ccording to the 8ational Science Board, RIE s'ending gro%s 2+ CQ 'er +ear in the !nited States, on average. China spends 9%@ more on 'P; ea h year" ^ China is no% second to the !nited States in the num2er of research articles its scientists 'u2lish each +ear and gaining ra'idl+" ^ In patents earned ea h year+ Ameri ans are no! in sixth pla e and falling. ^ Hilitar+ research no% a2sor2s much of the mone+ that once su''orted 2asic science" Since 2000, !"S" federal s'ending on defense research has risen an average of /"4Q 'er +ear, com'ared %ith onl+ 4".Q for civilian research" 7he ;efense Advanced 'esearch Pro*ects Agenc+ has 2een

legendar+ for its su''ort of K2lue s<+K research that led to dramatic technical advances, including the creation of the Internet" 7oda+ it focu ses in reasingly on immediate military needs and lo!#ris, development efforts " ^ Eore than half of Ameri an s ientists and engineers are nearing retirement. #t the rate #merican students are entering these fields, the retirees cannot 2e re'laced e;ce't 2+ recruiting foreign scientists" #ccording to the 8ational #cadem+ of 6ngineering, the !nited States 'roduces onl+ a2out /Q of the %orldJs engineers" 1nl+ CQ of #merican undergraduates are engineering ma*ors, com'ared %ith 12Q in 6uro'e and 40Q in China" 1f the doctoral degrees in science a%arded 2+ #merican universities, a2out 30Q go to foreign students" In engineering, it is C0Q" ^ B+ inhi2iting stem-cell research, cloning, and other s'ecialties, the !nited States has made itself less attractive to cutting-edge 2iomedical scientists" 7he !nited Lingdom is ca'italiDing on this to 2ecome the %orldJs leader in stem-cell research" In the 'rocess, it is reversing the 2rain drain that once 2rought to' British scientists to the !nited States" Hore than /0 leading #merican 2iomedical researchers have moved to the !"L" along %ith man+ less noted colleagues" 9atin #merica also has 2een receiving scientific emigres from the !nited States" ^ A"out 95@ of Ameri aNs s ien e and engineering !or,for e are immigrants+ in luding nearly half of those !ith do toral degrees" Euring the 1. +ears ending in 200/, one-third of the #merican scientists receiving 8o2el 4riDes %ere foreign-2orn" ^ #ccording to 4urdue !niversit+ 4resident Hartin Jisch<e, more than H%@ of all s ientists and engineers in the !orld live in Asia. #ssessment and Im'lications( $f this trend is not reversed+ it !ill "egin to undermine the U.S. e onomy and shift "oth e onomi and politi al po!er to other lands. #ccording to some estimates, a2out half of the im'rovement in the #merican standard of living is directl+ attri2uta2le to research and develo'ment carried out 2+ scientists and engineers" Eemand to im'ort foreign scientists and engineers on =-12 visas also %ill continue to gro%" 4u2licit+ a2out the =-12 'rogram, and a2out the offshoring of RIE to com'an+ divisions and consulting la2s in #sia, in turn %ill discourage #merican students from entering technical fields" 7his has alread+ 2een 2lamed for shrin<ing student rolls in com'uter science" In 200., China for the first time e;'orted more I7 and communications goods F@1A0 millionG than the !nited States F@14. millionG" Its lead has gro%n each +ear since then"

9AC Tes 1a"or Shortage O Eilitary $nnovation

Tes !or,er shortage O defense industry #dam Segal, Ira #" 9i'man senior fello% for counterterrorism and national securit+ studies at the Council on $oreign Relations, 9%11, #dvantage( =o% #merican
Innovation can 1vercome the #sian Challenge (ne area %here shortages are li,ely is in the defense industry+ !here )o"s re6uire se urity learan e" But this shortage is li<el+ to 2e remedied as much 2+ a change in clearance and vetting 'olicies as 2+ training more #merican-2orn scientists" 7he fact is that reating more s ientists is never easy. 4redicting mar<et demand for 'articular s<ills is es'eciall+ difficult" 7here can 2e a lag often +ears 2et%een the decision to fund fello%shi's and the time 'eo'le finall+ enter the *o2 mar<et, %hich could 2e ver+ different 2+ then" Han+ of the industries that drive the de2ates a2out talent shortages, es'eciall+ 2iotechnolog+ and information technolog+, are also susce'ti2le to 2oom and 2ust c+cles" 5hat loo<ed li<e a %ides'read scarcit+ of talent in 100/ and 100A in the com'uter sciences, for e;am'le, 2ecame a glut after the Internet 2u22le 2urst in 1000"

US doesn*t have the !or,ers to sustain military innovation 8oach Sha htman, 'olitical anal+st, C-1A-9%%G, Ear'a Brain Erain Costs
#genc+ @32 Hillion,& 5ired, htt'())%%%"%ired"com)dangerroom)200A)0C)the-usmilitar+) The U.S. military is shifting U?9 million a!ay from its premiere resear h agen y D "e ause that agenc+, ;arpa+ an*t find enough 6ualified people to run its utting#edge pro)e ts" # 4entagon Kre'rogramming action,K o2tained 2+ E#836R R11H, ta<es the cash from Ear'a to Kfund higher 'riorities %ithin the Ee'artmentK > including Kinfrastructure to 'revent I7 securit+ 2reaches"K 7hat mone+ is availa2le, the document adds, "e ause the agen y > ontinues to underexe ute its 'esear h+ ;evelopment+ Test and 0valuation programs.> The do ument gives t!o reasons !hy: >first+ several ,ey program managers* positions are unfilled "e ause there are fe! experts in advan ed s ien es and te hnologyN and second, Ear'aBs a''roval 'rocess is dela+ing contract a%ards"K

9AC &o US $nnovation &o!

The e onomi re ession+ edu ation and la , of investment are tan,ing US innovation #rianna -uffington, co-founder and editor in chief, 3-20- 9%1%, 5hen It Comes
to Innovation, Is #merica Becoming a 7hird 5orld Countr+,,& =uffington 4ost, htt'())%%%"huffington'ost"com)arianna-huffington)%hen-it-comes-toinnovatiM2M.122A0"html Is #merica turning into a third %orld countr+, 7hat %as the 'rovocative to'ic of a 'anel I too< 'art in last %ee< at a conference s'onsored 2+ 7he 6conomist entitled KInnovation( $resh 7hin<ing $or 7he Ideas 6conom+"K (n e upon a time+ the United States !as the !orldNs dominant innovator -- 'artl+ 2ecause %e didnJt have much com'etition" #s a result of the destruction %rea<ed 2+ 55II, the massive migration of 2rain'o%er to the !"S" caused 2+ the %ar, and huge amounts of government s'ending, #merica had the innovation 'la+ing field largel+ to itself" 8one of these factors e;ist as %e enter the second decade of the 21st centur+" Ameri a no! has plenty of ountries itNs ompeting !ith ## many of !hi h are mu h more serious a"out innovation than !e are" Just loo< at the num2ers( # re'ort 2+ the Information 7echnolog+ and Innovation $oundation loo<ed at the progress made over the last de ade in the area of innovation" 1ut of the 40 countries and regions it e;amined, the U.S. ran,ed dead last" # stud+ on innovation 2+ the Boston Consulting 3rou' concluded that Ameri a is >disadvantaged in several ,ey areas+ in luding !or, for e 6uality and e onomi + immigration+ and infrastru ture poli ies"K In 2000, 'atents issued to #merican a''licants dro''ed 2+ 2"3 'ercent" 7hose granted to foreign-2ased a''licants increased 2+ over C 'ercent" 5h+ are %e falling 2ehind li<e this, $or one thing, !eNve lost our edu ational edge" #merica once led the %orld in high school graduation rates" 5e are no% ran<ed 1Ath out of 24 industrialiDed countries" #nd the 'ercentage of 1.-+ear-olds 'erforming at the highest levels of math is among the lo%est" South Lorea, Belgium and the CDech Re'u2lic, among others, have at least five times the num2er the !"S" does" Plus+ !e are no longer investing in innovation" !ntil 10/0, around .0 'ercent of all research and develo'ment funds %ere 'rovided 2+ the federal government" 7hat num2er has fallen to 2/ 'ercent" #nd, during the 1000s, the 2ottom fell out of !"S" funding for a''lied science, dro''ing 2+ 40 'ercent" The e onomi risis is also ta,ing a toll on innovation" :enture ca'ital investment in the !"S" for the first three ?uarters of 2000 %as @12 2illion" 1ver the first three ?uarters of 200A, it %as @22 2illion" 7hese num2ers ma+ not 'lace us in the third %orld """ +et" But the trend is not a good one" Adding to the pro"lem is the sense that Ameri aNs "est days may "e "ehind us. Han+ economists and historians are %arning that our urrent e onomi do!nturn has reated a ne! normal. That the ountry !ill never "e the same" 7hings are, of course, going to 2e different" But that doesnNt have to mean that they are going to "e !orse" =o%ever, if !e donNt get serious a"out innovation+ they !ill "e" 5hen it comes to our a''roach to innovation, %e des'eratel+ need some innovation"

The urrent US fo us family unifi ation threatens Ameri an ompetitiveness and e onomi innovation Earrel H" West, vice 'resident and director of 3overnance Studies and founding director of the Center for 7echnolog+ Innovation at Broo<ings Institute, 9%1%, Brain
3ain( Rethin<ing !"S" Immigration 4olic+ 7he 'ro2lem, though, is that this near#ex lusive emphasis on family unifi ation ignores other im'ortant 'riorities such as Ameri an ompetitiveness+ human ca'ital, 2order securit+, crime 'revention, entrepreneurship+ and e onomi innovation. The over!helming num"er of visas devoted to ne! family mem"ers means very fe! visas are availa"le for seasonal %or<ers, s ientists and engineers+ or foreign graduates of Ameri an universities and ma<es it 'oliticall+ difficult to e;'and the num2er of visas in nonfamil+ categories"

9AC ST0E Iey to ;(;

Foreign la"or dependen e rushes ;(; la"s O iti7enship is ne essary Richard Stephens, Senior :4, =uman Resources and #dministration at Boeing and Chair of the #eros'ace Industries #ssociation, 2-4- 9%1%, 7estimon+ to the
=ouse Science and 7echnolog+ Committee,& htt'())%%%"aiaaeros'ace"org)assets)Ste'hensQ205rittenQ207estimon+Q202-4-2010F1G"'df 5e are 'roud to 2e among those industries that have 'laced the !nited States in its leadershi' role in technolog+, innovation and the a2ilit+ to solve highl+ com'le; 'ro2lems" But as 2oth the 'ace of innovation and the need for 'ro2lem-solving accelerate glo2all+, the !nited States faces a com'etitive ga' that %e can close onl+ if more of our +oung 'eo'le 'ursue careers in the gro%ing fields of S76H disci'lines" In m+ industr+, the #viation 5ee< 2000 5or<force Stud+ Fconducted in coo'eration %ith the #eros'ace Industries #ssociation, #merican Institute of #eronautics I #stronautics, and the 8ational Eefense Industries #ssociationG indicates aeros'ace com'anies that are hiring need s+stems engineers, aeros'ace engineers, mechanical engineers, 'rogramming)soft%are engineers and 'rogram managers" 7oda+, across the aeros'ace industr+, the average age of the %or<force continues to increase, and e;'ectations are that a''ro;imatel+ 20 'ercent of our current technical talent %ill 2e eligi2le to retire %ithin 3 the ne;t three +ears" #s a result, in the ver+ near future, our com'anies and our nationBs aeros'ace 'rograms %ill need tens of thousands of engineers>in addition to those *oining the %or<force toda+" 7hese are 2ecoming difficult *o2s to fill not 2ecause there is a la2or shortage 2ut 2ecause there is a s<ills shortage( 1ur industr+ needs more innovative +oung scientists, technologists, engineers, and mathematicians to re'lace our dis'ro'ortionatel+ large Fcom'ared to the total !"S" %or<forceG 'o'ulation of Ba2+ Boomers as the+ retire" #t the same time that retirements are increasing, the num2er of #merican %or<ers %ith S76H degrees is declining, as the 8ational Science Board 'ointed out in 200A" 7his s<ills shortage is a glo2al concern across the 2oard in all high-tech sectors>'u2lic as %ell as 'rivate" But it is es'eciall+ acute in the !"S" defense industr+ 2ecause man+ government programs arry se urity re6uirements that an "e fulfilled onl+ "y !or,ers !ho are U.S. iti7ens" #ccording to the #viation 5ee< 2000 5or<force Stud+, of the positions open in the aerospa e and defense industry in 2000, JJ.5 per ent re?uired U.S. iti7enship" Ret onl+ . 'ercent of !"S" 2achelorBs degrees are in engineering, com'ared %ith 20 'ercent in #sia, for e;am'le" Hean%hile, in 200/, foreign students received 4 'ercent of science and engineering 2achelorBs degrees, 24 'ercent of science and engineering masterBs degrees, and 33 'ercent of science and engineering doctoral degrees a%arded in the !nited States, according to the 8ational Science Board" #nd most foreign students !ho earn undergraduate and graduate degrees from U.S. institutions are not eligi"le for U.S. se urity learan es. Clearl+, the throughput of our U.S. ST0E pipeline arries serious impli ations for our national se urity+ our ompetitiveness as a nation+ and our defense industrial "ase. 7hree <e+ actions are necessar+ to ensure that %e have enough scientists and engineers to meet future needs( 1G Successfull+ graduate all For at least a lot more ofG those %ho enter colleges and universitiesN 2G 6nsure colleges and universities 'roduce enough ?ualified

secondar+ teachers for science, math and technolog+N and 3G Hotivate our +outh to 'ursue S76H-related careers that 'rovide great 'a+, deliver on the 'romise of challenging and fun %or<, and create the future"

Foreign "orn s ientists ant !or, at ;(; la"s The $ndustrial College of the Armed For es+ 9%%5, 6ducation,
8ational Eefense !niversit+, htt'())%%%"dtic"mil)cgi-2in)3et7REoc, 9ocation-!2Idoc-3et7REoc"'dfI#E-#E#4404C0 Second, the num"er of foreign students attending US universities to study s ien e and engineering is de lining" Gro!ing glo"al ompetition for s ientifi and engineering talent is in reasing as other nations continue to develop more sophisti ated s ien e and te hnology apa"ilities".2 7hose foreign students that come here for their education are returning to their home# ountry !or,for es instead of gaining US iti7enship and *oining the !S %or<force, as had 2een the trend in the 'ast".3 A third reason to in rease the num"er of US#"orn s ien e and engineering graduates is the se urity impli ations of relying on a foreign#"orn !or,for e to fill sensitive s ien e and engineering positions in a 'ost-0)11 environment".4 &ational se urity impli ations for ;o;#sponsored resear h at US universities and !or,for e re6uirements at ;o; and se urity#related federal agen ies point to the need for more US#"orn s ientists and engineers to fill the gap...

;ependen e on foreign !or,ers auses shortage of defense industry s ientists Asso iation of Ameri an Universities+ 9%%J , Heeting #mericaNs
6conomic and Securit+ Challenges in the 21st Centur+,& htt'())%%%"aau"edu)re'orts)8E6II"'df $or the 'ast 30 +ears, the U.S. has ompensated for the tenden y of Ameri an students to avoid s ien e areers "y attra ting to' students from a"road" In the 'ast, these students have augmented the num2er of U.S. students" 7oda+, augmentation has 2ecome de'endenc+ . The nation annot "e assured that the flo! of foreign students !ill ontinue" 6ven if it does, !e still fa e a national se urity !or,for e risis in !hi h these foreign#"orn students are of little help" !"S" iti7ens are needed to fill se urity#related positions in the defense industry + the military+ the national la"oratories, the ;e'artments of ;efense and -omeland Se urity+ the intelligen e agen ies+ and other federal agen ies"

Citi7enship is a prere6uisite to !or,ing in the defense industry 8orman Augustine, Retired Chairman and C61 9oc<heed Hartin Cor'oration, 313-9%%<, Can #merica Com'ete for Jo2s,& 7estif+ing 2efore the Committee on
Science and 7echnolog+, !S =ouse of Re's, htt'())%%%/"nationalacademies"org)ocga)testimon+)CanM#mericaMCom'eteMforMJo2s "as' It should 2e noted that %hile the #cademiesB committee focused on creating and sustaining *o2s, the im'act of the com'etitiveness race on our nationBs 'h+sical securit+ could 2e even more 'rofound" Several +ears ago it %as m+ 'rivilege to serve on the 2i'artisan =art-Rudman Commission on 8ational Securit+, one of the

t%o 'rimar+ findings of the grou' 2eing, " " " the inade6ua ies of our system of resear h and edu ation pose a greater threat to U.S. national se urity over the ne;t ?uarter centur+ than an+ 'otential onventional !ar that %e might imagine"& Indeed, the onse6uen es of urrent trends are parti ularly a ute for defense firms, %hich must rel+ upon U.S. iti7ens for much of their engineering for e and annot sim'l+ shift !or, overseas as does mu h of the ommer ial se tor"

9AC AT: Private Se tor Solves

(nly ;(; la"s solve military dominan e O private industry is too profit fo used O empiri s prove Eon ;eToung, senior research fello% in the Center for 7echnolog+ and 8ational
Securit+ 4olic+ at 8ational Eefense !niversit+, Center for 7echnolog+ and 8ational Securit+ 4olic+, 8ational Eefense !niversit+, Januar+ 9%%?, 7he Silence of the 9a2s,& Eefense =oriDons, 8um2er 21, htt'())%%%"ndu"edu)C78S4)doc!'loaded))E=21"'df Eyth: $ndustry Can ;o $t #ll" $ndustry !ill not ta,e on the full range of ne essary !or, 2ecause many areas hold limited opportunities for profit . Spe iali7ed defense te hnologies often have little or no appli a"ility to ommer ial produ ts" !nli<e the situation during 5orld 5ar II, or even the :ietnam era, the ;(; mar,et is no! often too small to )ustify a signifi ant investment of s ar e apital" $or instance, $ntel stopped ma,ing customiDed hips for the military 2ecause it !as expensive and the volumes !ere too small"/ In addition, 'P; is expensive, the time to a hieve su ess is long+ the !or, is often ver+ ris,y+ and the payoff Fes'eciall+ from researchG is usuall+ not immediate" This is unappealing to chief e;ecutive officers FC0(sG !hose ompensation is tied to the short term Fsuch as stoc< 'rices and ?uarterl+ dividendsG" 7o cut costs and raise mone+, for e;am'le, Zero; sought co-o%ners for its 4alo #lto Research Center, %hich is famous for hel'ing to s'ar< the com'uter revolution %ith the 6thernet, the mouse, and the 'oint-andclic< com'uter interface" 6choing the cor'orate focus on the shortterm, Business 5ee< stated that co-o%ners %ould demand that this dream factor+& %or< on more 'ractical, short-term 2usiness 'ro2lems " " " and thatBs a good thing"&A In the end, Zero; divested itself of the la2orator+" The re ord also does not support the notion that private la"oratories "y nature !or, faster+ "etter+ and heaper than Government 1a"oratories" Consider t%o e;am'les( In 1000, 9ee Buchanan, then #ssistant Secretar+ of the 8av+ for Research, Eevelo'ment, and #c?uisition, %ent 2efore Congress and identified eight technologies that had emerged from 'rivate and 'u2lic la2oratories to 'la+ a ma*or role on the 2attlefield" 1f those eight, four %ere 8R9 achievements, and a fifth received strong su''ort from it"0 #fter a *oint 8ational #eronautics and S'ace #dministration F8#S#G)E1E stud+ concluded that a colla2orative s'ace mission could test missile defense technologies and 'rovide a significant science return, 8R9 %as given res'onsi2ilit+ for mission design, s'acecraft engineering, test, and flight o'erations" In 1004, 8R9 'ut the satellite Clementine into lunar or2it, and the !nited States returned to the Hoon for the first time since 10/2" Built in less than one-half the time and for one-fifth the cost of similar s'ace 'ro2es,10 it %as so sim'le to o'erate that its mission control center com'rised eight engineers %or<ing in a %arehouse in #le;andria, :irginia"11

;(; la"s are a ,ey yardsti , O their innovation failure means the government ma,es "ad pro urement de isions. Eon ;eToung, senior research fello% in the Center for 7echnolog+ and 8ational
Securit+ 4olic+ at 8ational Eefense !niversit+, Center for 7echnolog+ and 8ational Securit+ 4olic+, 8ational Eefense !niversit+, Januar+ 9%%?, 7he Silence of the

9a2s,& Eefense =oriDons, 8um2er 21, htt'())%%%"ndu"edu)C78S4)doc!'loaded))E=21"'df 7o understand the 'olitical costs of inaction, one must understand %h+ ;(; has la"oratories in the first 'lace" 7o 2e sure, their existen e is not "ased on a uni6ue a"ility to perform research and develo'ment" Instead, it is "ased on their uni?ue position as technical agents of the !"S" Government, ,no!ledgea"le of military re6uirements, and responsi"le for a ting in the &ation*s interests" The ;efense 1a"oratory meets this responsi"ility "y performing three roles( 'erformer of long-term, high-ris< 'ro*ectsN ?uic< res'onder in crisesN and yardsti ,,12 a term referring to the standard that it sets 2+ 'roviding authoritative, o2*ective advice to governmental decisionma<ers" 7his +ardstic< role is relevant to e;'laining 'olitical costs" 7he 4err+ Re'ort, endorsed 2+ then !nder Secretar+ of Eefense for Research and 6ngineering, 5illiam 4err+, s'o<e to the +ardstic< role 2+ e;'laining that to "e a smart "uyer, the $ederal Government must "e a"le to hoose among ompeting options offered "y industrial produ ers. The need for profit ma,es ea h ompany an advo ate of its o!n produ t, so, given those natural tenden ies+ the Government .re6uires internal te hni al apa"ility of suffi ient "readth+ depth+ and ontinuity to assure that the pu"li interest is served"&13 Conversel+, defi ient in#house expertise is %hat 'olitical scientist =arold 8ie2urg called losing the +ardstic<"& 7his condition 2ecomes evident %hen the 3overnment is forced to hire consultants to *udge the %or< of its contractors" In other %ords, !ith its sour e of independent+ o")e tive te hni al expertise gone , the $ederal Government is for ed to rely on advi e from sour es not insulated from ommer ial pressures to ma,e a profit. To "e a yardsti ,+ a la"oratory must "e a ompetent performer" There is no .,no!ing/ in the a"sen e of .doing&N the t%o roles are intimatel+ related" 7he follo%ing e;am'le sho%s ho% te hni al strength yields sound advi e.

RRRA;;#(& A;2A&TAG0S

9AC Spa e 1eadership Add#(n

'estoring funding to Constellation re#esta"lishes U.S. spa e leadership 6ugene #" Cernan, Commander O #'ollo Z:II and Retired Ca'tain O !nited States 8av+, .-2C-9%1%, 7estimon+ 2efore the =ouse Committee on Science and
7echnolog+, htt'())%%%"mar<larson"com)genecernan)=ouseM=earingM Statement"'df With the su"mission of FT9%11 "udget+ The Administration and the originators of this 'ro'osal !ere either misinformed or sho%ing e;treme naivete, or I can onl+ conclude, are !illing to ta,e accounta2ilit+ for a al ulated plan to dismantle Ameri a*s leadership in the %orld of =uman Spa e 0xploration resulting in &ASA "e oming nothing more than a resear h fa ility. In either case, I 2elieve this 'ro'osal is a travest+ %hich flo%s against the

grain of over 200 +ears of our histor+ and, toda+, against the %ill of the ma*orit+ of #mericans" 7he s'ace 'rogram has never 2een an entitlement, itBs an investment in the future O an investment in technolog+, *o2s, international res'ect and geo-'olitical leadershi', and 'erha's most im'ortantl+ in the ins'iration and education of our +outh" 7hose 2est and 2rightest minds at 8#S# and throughout the multitudes of 'rivate contractors, large and small, did not *oin the team to design %indmills or redesign gas 'edals, 2ut to live their dreams of once again ta<ing us %here no man has gone 2efore" If this 2udget 'ro'osal 2ecomes the la% of the land, these technicians, engineers, scientists, a generation removed from #'ollo, +et re-ins'ired 2+ the 'ros'ect of going 2ac< to the moon and on to Hars, %ill 2e gone O %here I donBt <no% O 2ut gone" #mericaBs human s'ace flight 'rogram has for a half centur+ risen a2ove 'artisan differences from 6isenho%er to Lenned+ to the 'resent da+" 7he challenges and accom'lishments of the 'ast %ere those of a nation O never of a 'olitical 'art+ or of an+ individual agenda" 7hose

We are at a ross road. $f !e C a"di ate our leadership in spa e toda+, not only is human spa eflight and spa e exploration at ris,+ "ut I 2elieve the future of this ountry and thus the future of our children and grandchildren as %ell" &o! is the time for !iser heads in the Congress of the !nited States to 'revail" 8o% is the time to overrule this Administration*s pledge to medio rity" 8o% is the time to 2e 2old, innovative and %ise in ho% %e invest in the future of #merica" &o! is the time to re#esta"lish our nation*s ommitment to ex ellen e.
flags that fl+ on the moon toda+ are neither 2lue flags nor are the+ red flags O the+ are #merican $lags"

That*s ,ey to intel and !arfighting apa"ilities #" 7homas Toung, Chair O Institute for Eefense #nal+ses Research 3rou', et al", Jul+ 9%%G, 9eadershi', Hanagement, and 1rganiDation for 8ational Securit+
S'ace&, htt'())%%%"arm+s'ace"arm+"mil)#SJ)Images)8ationalMSecurit+MS 'aceMStud+M$inalMSe'tM1C"'df 7oda+, U.S. leadership in spa e provides a vital national advantage a ross the s ientifi + ommer ial+ and national se urity realms. $n parti ular+ spa e is of riti al importan e to our national intelligen e and !arfighting apa"ilities" 7he 'anel mem2ers nevertheless are unanimous in our conviction that, !ithout signifi ant improvements in the leadershi' and management of 8SS 'rograms, U.S. spa e preeminen e !ill erode to the e;tent that s'ace ceases to 'rovide a com'etitive national securit+ advantage" Spa e te hnology is rapidly proliferating a ross the glo"e, and man+ of our most im'ortant ca'a2ilities and successes %ere develo'ed and fielded %ith a government technical %or<force and a management structure that no longer e;ist"

That*s ,ey to overall U.S. hegemony #" 7homas Toung, Chair O Institute for Eefense #nal+ses Research 3rou', et al", Jul+ 9%%G, 9eadershi', Hanagement, and 1rganiDation for 8ational Securit+
S'ace&, htt'())%%%"arm+s'ace"arm+"mil)#SJ)Images)8ationalMSecurit+MS 'aceMStud+M$inalMSe'tM1C"'df U S !eadershi" in S"ace is a #ital National Ad$antage Spa e apa"ilities underpin U.S. e onomi + s ientifi + and military leadership. The spa e enterprise is em"edded in the fa"ri of our nation*s e onomy+ providing te hnologi al leadership and sustainment of the industrial "ase " 7o cite 2ut one e;am'le, the 3lo2al 4ositioning S+stem F34SG is the %orld standard for 'recision navigation and timing" Glo"al a!areness provided from spa e provides the a"ility to effe tively plan for and respond to su h riti al national se urity re6uirements as intelligence on the militar+ ca'a2ilities of potential adversaries+ intelligence on 5ea'ons of Hass Eestruction F WE;G 'rogram proliferation+ homeland se urity+ and missile !arning and defense. Eilitary strategy+ operations+ and ta ti s are predi ated upon the availa"ility of spa e apa"ilities" 7he militar+ use of s'ace-2ased ca'a2ilities is 2ecoming increasingl+ so'histicated, and their use in 1'eration 6nduring $reedom and 1'eration Ira?i $reedom is 'ervasive"

-eg solves nu,e !ar Salma+ Ihalil7ad, $ormer #ssist 4rof of 4oli Sci at Colum2ia, S'ring, 10 H5, 7he
5ashington Tuarterl+, :ol" 1A, 8o" 2N 4" A4" !nder the third o'tion, the !nited States %ould see< to retain glo2al leadershi' and to 'reclude the rise of a glo2al rival or a return to multi'olarit+ for the indefinite future" 1n 2alance, this is the 2est long-term guiding 'rinci'le and vision" Such a vision is desira2le not as an end in itself, 2ut 2ecause a !orld in !hi h the United States exer ises leadership !ould have tremendous advantages" $irst, the glo"al environment !ould "e more open and more re eptive to #merican values -- demo ra y+ free mar,ets+ and the rule of la!" Second, su h a !orld !ould have a "etter han e of dealing ooperatively !ith the %orldJs ma*or 'ro2lems, such as nu lear proliferation+ threats of regional hegemony 2+ renegade states, and lo!#level onfli ts" $inall+, U.S. leadership !ould help pre lude the rise of another hostile glo"al rival , ena"ling the !nited States and the !orld to avoid another glo2al cold or hot %ar and all the attendant dangers, including a glo"al nu lear ex hange" !"S" leadershi' %ould therefore 2e more conducive to glo2al sta2ilit+ than a 2i'olar or a multi'olar 2alance of 'o%er s+stem"

9AC UA2 Add#(n

;e"ris is a atastrophi threat to national se urity and our ontrol of UA2s 9t" Colonel Jose'h $m"urgia, legal e;change officer to the Eirectorate of 1'erations and International 9a%, Eefence 9egal, #ustralian Eefence $orce, 9%11
S'ace Ee2ris and Its 7hreat to 8ational Securit+( # 4ro'osal for a Binding International #greement to Clean !' the Jun<& :ander2ilt Journal of 7ransnational 9a% :ol" 44(.A0 'g" C0A-C00 7hese gloomy prognosti ations a"out the threats to our spa e environment should "e trou"ling to #mericans" The United States relies on the unhindered use of outer spa e for national se urity"1.1 #ccording to a s'ace commission led 2+ former Secretar+ of Eefense Eonald Rumsfeld, UtVhe U!nited StatesV is more de'endent on s'ace than an+ other nation"&1.2 #ccording to Ro2ert 3" Jose'h, former !ndersecretar+ for #rms Control and International Securit+ at the State Ee'artment, spa e apa"ilities are vital to our national se urity and to our e onomi !ell#"eing./15? Therefore+ a catastro'hic collision 2et%een s'ace de2ris and the satellites on %hich that national securit+ so heavil+ de'ends 'oses a ver+ real and current threat to the national se urity interests of the United States" Since the U1001V 3ulf 5ar, the BUnited StatesV military has depended on satellites for ommuni ations+ intelligen e and navigation for its troops and pre ision#guided !eapons./15F Satellites are also used for re onnaissan e and surveillan e+ ommand and ontrol+ and ontrol of Unmanned Aerial 2ehicles"1.. #ccording to the !nited States S'ace CommandBs $act Sheet( Satellites provide essential in#theater se ure ommuni ations+ !eather and navigational data for ground+ air and fleet operations and threat !arning. 3round-2ased radar and Eefense Su''ort 4rogram satellites monitor 2allistic missile launches around the %orld to guard against a sur'rise missile attac< on 8orth #merica" Spa e surveillan e radars provide vital information on the lo ation of satellites and spa e de"ris for the nation and the !orld. Eaintaining spa e superiority is an emerging apa"ility re6uired to prote t our spa e assets.15J With the modern speed of !arfare+ it has "e ome diffi ult to fight onfli ts !ithout the timely intelligen e and information that spa e assets provide. Spa e#"ased assets and s'ace-controlled assets have reated among U.S. military ommanders .a nearly insatia"le desire for live video surveillan e+ espe ially as provided from remotely piloted vehi les li,e the Predator and no! the 'eaper"&1./ Horeover, military for es have "e ome so dependent on satellite ommuni ations and targeting apa"ilities that the loss of su h a satellite !ould ."adly damage their a"ility to respond to a military emergen y"&1.A

UA2s ,ey to AfghanistanD8etter surveillan e+ fire support+ and enhan ed apa"ility to our soldiers and Earines Euncan -unter, former 9ieutenant in the !S Harines, Congressman re'resenting the .2nd district of California, 9%%H !#:s critical for #fghanistan&
htt'())hunter"house"gov)inde;"'h',o'tion-comM contentItas<-vie%Iid-131IItemid-C1

$n the s<ies a2ove Ira? and Afghanistan, !nmanned #erial :ehicles 3UA2s4 are providing Ameri aNs military for es !ith a signifi ant advantage over our terrorist enemies" UA2s are flying more than ?% missions a day in "oth of these regions+ providing video surveillan e+ fire support and enhan ed om"at apa"ility to our soldiers and Earines" Host im'ortantl+, these assets are saving #merican lives on the 2attlefield" B+ 200., the greatest threat to coalition forces in $ra6+ as !ell as the primary sour e of com2at asualties+ !as $m'rovised 0;'losive ;evices ---- remotel+ detonated munitions that allo% insurgents to engage targets from a distance" $n dire t response to this threat, the U.S. Army laun hed Tas, For e (din in 200C at the insistence of Congress to provide persistent intelligen e+ surveillan e and re onnaissan e of Ira?Js road!ays through use of UA2s and several other resources" Since then, more than 3,000 insurgents have 2een ca'tured or <illed, and coalition deaths attri2uta2le to roadside "om" atta ,s de reased "y G5 per ent" 7as< $orce 1din %as a success 2+ all measures and further demonstrates the effectiveness of !#:s in toda+Js fight against terrorism" &o! that greater attention is shifting to Afghanistan, 'articularl+ %ith the addition of another 20,000 !"S" com2at troo's, !e must learn from our experien es and fully implement a surveillan e strategy that effe tively mitigates roadside "om" atta ,s and 6ui ,ly overs rugged terrain along the Afghan#Pa,istan "order"

1osing Afghanistan guts leadership and auses multiple s enarios for nu lear !ar James Carafano, senior research fello% for national securit+ at 7he =eritage $oundation and directs its #llison Center for $oreign 4olic+ Studies, 1-2- 9%1% Con(
12ama must %in fast in #fghanistan or ris< ne% %ars across the glo2e& htt'())gaDette;tra"com)ne%s)2010)*an)02)con-o2ama-must-%in-fast-afghanistan-orris<-ne%-%a) 8ot much chance 12ama %ill go that route" $f the violen e s,yro ,ets ne;t +ear and it loo,s as though the president*s am2itious o")e tives an*t "e met+ Afghanistan ould loo, a lot more li,e 2ietnam in 10/3" U.S. for es !ithdre!. (ur a"andoned ally !as soon overrun. South 2ietnam "e ame a gulagN Cam2odia s'routed the <illing fieldsN life in 9aos %as *ust 'lain lous+" B+ 10/0, the Sino-:ietnamese %ar eru'ted" We an expe t similar results if ("ama*s Afghan strategy fails and he opts to ut and run " Host forget that thro!ing South 2ietnam to the !olves made the !orld a far more dangerous pla e. The Soviets sa! it as an unmista,a"le sign that Ameri a !as in de line. They a"etted military in ursions in #frica, the Hiddle 6ast, southern #sia and 9atin #merica" They !ent on a onventional# and nu lear# arms spending spree. They sto ,piled enough smallpox and anthrax to ,ill the !orld several times over" State-s'onsorshi' of terrorism came into fashion" 1sama "in 1aden alled Ameri a a .paper tiger./ $f !e live do!n to that moni,er in Afghanistan+ odds are the !orld !ill get a lot less safe. Al# Yaida !ould "e "a , in the game. 'egional terrorists !ould go after "oth Pa,istan and $ndiaD'otentiall+ triggering a nuclear %ar "et!een the t!o ountries. Sensing a Washington in retreat+ $ran and &orth Iorea ould shift their nu lear programs into overdrive+ hoping to save their failing e onomies "y selling their nu lear %ea'ons and te hnologies to all omers. Their nervous neigh"ors !ould !ant nu lear arms of their o!n. The resulting nu lear arms ra e ould "e far more dangerous than the Cold

War*s t%o-2loc standoff. With multiple+ independent+ nu lear po!ers cautiousl+ e+eing one another, the !orld !ould loo, a lot more li,e 0urope in 1H1F+ !hen 'recarious shifting alliances sno%2alled into a ver+ 2ig, tragic %ar . The list goes on. There is no 6uestion that countries such as 'ussia+ China and 2ene7uela !ould rethin, their strategi al ulus as %ell" 7hat could 'roduce all <inds of serious regional challenges for the !nited States" (ur allies might rethin, things as !ell" #ustralia has alread+ hi<ed its defense s'ending 2ecause it canBt 2e sure the !nited States %ill remain a res'onsi2le securit+ 'artner" &AT( might !ell fall apart" 6uro'e could 2e left %ith onl+ a 'un+ 6! militar+ force inca'a2le of defending the interests of its nations" 8one of this is to suggest that sta+ing in #fghanistan is an eas+ o'tion" 5ars never are" 7he+ re?uire good men and %omen to 'ut their lives on the line ever+ da+ for our securit+" 5e should 'ut them at ris< onl+ for an issue of vital national interest" #fghanistan is one such issue" #nd that>not cost>is the real 2ottom line" 7he %ar %onBt 2an<ru't #merica" Hultitrillion dollar 'ro'osals li<e ca' and trade& environmental schemes or government-managed health s+stems might %ell <ill our econom+" But the @30 2illion re?uired for the #fghanistan surge re'resents a2out 0"20 'ercent of our 3E4" In terms of E"C" 2udget de2ates, thatBs a rounding error" But in terms of national se urity+ the ost of failure in Afghanistan !ould "e in al ula"ly high.

9AC PGS Add#(n

Spa e a!areness is ,ey to effe tive PGS intelligen e 3en" 9ance 5" 1ord !S#$N 3en" 9ance 5" 9ord, !S#$, is the commander of the !"S" #ir $orce S'ace Command, Januar+ 9%%F, Hilitar+ 7echnolog+ Erives Hilitar+
7ransformation, htt'())%%%"afcea"org)signal)articles)tem'lates)SI38#9M#rticleM7em'late"as', articleid-44IDoneid-1/ 7he a2ilit+ of the !nited States to detect and trac< moving targets and stri<e %ith 'recision using stealth+ 'latforms no% is %ell-<no%n" 7his o'erational advantage incor'orates numerous cutting-edge technologies and has revolutioniDed the %a+ the nation 'rosecutes the fight, shifting the national securit+ 'aradigm and fueling our drive for the ne;t ste's in transformation" !"S" #ir $orce Chief of Staff 3en" John Jum'er, !S#$, recentl+ stated, The day is oming !hen prompt glo"al stri,e !ill "e a reality+ !hen the ,ill hain !ill "e relia"ly and onsistently ompressed to minutes instead of hours or days.& The nation !ill provide even 6ui ,er and more lethal response !hen alled to a tion+ ena"led "y te hnology and our a"ility to exe ute an essential Air For e ore ompeten y: te hnology to !arfighting. Te hnologi al advan es pla ed in the hands of highly s,illed professionals+ parti ularly for spa e apa"ilities+ results in a transformation of the !ay of !ar. 7he Secretar+ of the #ir $orce, Er" James Roche, contends, Warfare is evolvingA spa e is in reasingly integral to modern !arfare+ and it is transforming the !ay !e fight"& The United States in reasingly !ill rely on the integration of spa e po!er into air, land and sea 'latforms to 'roduce even faster, more relia2le and more accurate effects" Spa e !ill ontri"ute to ompressing the ,ill hain "y finding+ fixing+ tra ,ing+ targeting+ engaging and assessing targets in the "attlespa e. The future re6uires ro"ust spa e situation a!areness, to include characteriDation and re'ortingN the a"ility to seamlessly ommand and ontrol for es in any theater of operationsA defensive and offensive ounterspa e apa"ilitiesA and non#nu lear prompt glo"al#stri,e- and targeting-?ualit+ intelligence, surveillan e and re onnaissan e from spa e" Successes in o'erations 6nduring $reedom and Ira?i $reedom 'rovided a glim'se into that future" 3lo2al =a%< and 4redator unmanned aerial vehicles conducted intelligence and com2at o'erations %ith 'ilots, o'erators and anal+sts in California, than<s to near-instantaneous satellite data streams" #nd, it is not *ust the #ir $orce that has 2enefited from these ca'a2ilities" Spa e te hnology improves all our for es" 9t" 3en" Ean 9eaf, !S#$, #ir $orce S'ace Command vice commander, o2serves, #s the senior airman in the coalition forcesB land com'onent commanderBs head?uarters during o'eration Ira?i $reedom, $ sa! the po!er of spa e apa"ilities "enefit the soldiers of the )oint team every day./ 3en" 9eaf served as the director of the #ir Com'onent Coordination 6lement %ith the coalition forcesB land com'onent commander" S'ace s+stems %ere %oven through ever+ 2it of moving, shooting, and communicating our land forces did,& he states" Spa e apa"ilities rely on the latest te hnologi al developments to ensure an asymmetri advantage and to provide a de isive om"at edge " But it is not a2out the ne;t 2ig 2rea<through& in technolog+> it is the !ay our spa e professionals and military innovators utili7e "oth urrent and emerging te hnology for in reased om"at effe ts" In a technolog+-savv+ age, those %ho

cannot ada't ?uic<l+ to technological advances %ill feel the results on the 2attlefield"

PGS Solves rogue prolif Jonathan H" (!ens, !S#$ Colonel, 2-1.-9%%G, 4recision 3lo2al Stri<e,& #ir 5ar
College, htt's())%%%"afresearch"org)s<ins)rims)?MmodM2e0e00f3-fc.C-4cc2-AdfeC/0c0A22a1.3)?MactMdo%nload'a'er)?Mo2*M3C4.4d20-224a-412c-244..1.dacfadd/c)dis'la+"as';,rs-engines'ag 6vents in $ra6 highlight a li,ely target re6uiring a rapid+ long#range stri,e apa"ility" 7he <ic<off to the Ira? 5ar %as in 'art due to the sus'ected <no%n %herea2outs of Saddam =ussein" 7he !S assem2led its res'onse forces and attem'ted unsuccessfull+ to target his location" 1ne reason for the failure has 2een 2lamed on the four hours it too< for !S forces to res'ond to the re?uest, 'erha's sufficient time for a fleeting target to move".2 #n additional e;am'le %as %itnessed in 100A %hen the !S located the %herea2outs of #+man al-Sa%ahiri, Bin 9adenBs num2er t%o man" $ollo%ing a 'hone call to a 4a<istani re'orter, the !S launched a cruise missile attac< at the location" 9aunch authorit+ to 2om2 on target too< one hour" B+ that time, al-Sa%ahiri %as gone".3 7he same +ear, the !S attem'ted another 79#H attac< on an #l Taeda training cam' in eastern #fghanistan %here Bin 9aden %as sus'ected to 2e located" In the time it too< the missile to travel the t%o hours to his location, Bin 9aden %as gone".4 # US apa"ility to laun h !ithin ?% minutes and have effects on targets %orld%ide !ould in rease the US range of options !hen dealing !ith time# riti al+ high#value targets. An additional s enario ould involve the transport of a nu lear !eapon "y a <no%n terrorist group" 7hrough intelligence and overhead imager+, the location of the %ea'on is determined to 2e inside a %arehouse in a remote region of the Hiddle 6ast" 7he %ea'on is e;'ected to 2e at the location for less than an hour" 1aun hing an air raft to attac< the target may not "e an option due to time+ distan e+ and politi al on erns" In addition, a 79#H ma+ not 2e an o'tion due to its slo%er s'eed F..0 <notsG and limited range F1,.00 milesG" $inall+, one possi"le s enario might involve a rogue state preparing to laun h a long# range missile !ith a nu lear devi e on it" 1nce overhead imager+ correlates missile t+'e, 'a+load, and su2se?uent li?uid-refueling, the time availa2le to attac< could 2e too late" Targeting the missile !hile it is still on the laun h platform !ould render the missile and laun h platform ineffe tive in addition to deterring the aggressor from ontemplating another atta , "..

Prolif auses extin tion 3eorge Shult7 et al, secretar+ of state from 10A2 to 10A0, 5illiam 4err+,
secretar+ of defense from 1004 to 100/,=enr+ Lissinger, secretar+ of state from 10/3 to 10//, and Sam 8unn, former chairman of the Senate #rmed Services Committee, 1-4-9%%<, # 5orld $ree of 8uclear 5ea'ons,& 5all Street Journal, htt'())online"%s*"com)article)SB11C/A/.1.2.1.CCC3C"html 8uclear %ea'ons toda+ 'resent tremendous dangers, 2ut also an historic o''ortunit+" U.S. leadership !ill "e re6uired to ta,e the !orld to the ne;t stage -- to a solid onsensus for reversing relian e on nu lear !eapons glo"ally as a vital contri2ution to preventing their proliferation into 'otentiall+ dangerous hands, and ultimatel+ ending them as a threat to the %orld" &u lear !eapons !ere essential to maintaining international se urity during the Cold War "e ause the+ %ere a means of deterren e. The end of the Cold War made the do trine of mutual Soviet#Ameri an

deterren e o"solete. ;eterren e ontinues to "e a relevant onsideration for many states %ith regard to threats from other states" 8ut relian e on nu lear !eapons for this purpose is "e oming in reasingly ha7ardous and de reasingly effe tive. &orth IoreaNs re ent nu lear test and $ranNs refusal to stop its program to enri h uranium -- 'otentiall+ to %ea'ons grade -highlight the fa t that the !orld is no! on the pre ipi e of a ne! and dangerous nu lear era. Host alarmingl+, the li,elihood that non#state terrorists !ill get their hands on nu lear !eaponry is in reasing . In toda+Js %ar %aged on %orld order 2+ terrorists, nuclear %ea'ons are the ultimate means of mass devastation" And non#state terrorist groups !ith nu lear !eapons are on eptually outside the "ounds of a deterrent strategy and 'resent difficult ne% securit+ challenges" #'art from the terrorist threat, unless urgent ne! a tions are ta,en+ the U.S. soon !ill "e ompelled to enter a ne! nu lear era that !ill "e more pre arious+ psy hologi ally disorienting+ and e onomi ally even more ostly than !as Cold War deterren e. $t is far from ertain that !e an su essfully repli ate the old Soviet-#merican Kmutuall+ assured destructionK !ith an in reasing num"er of potential nu lear enemies !orld#!ide !ithout dramati ally in reasing the ris, that nu lear !eapons !ill "e used. &e! nu lear states do not have the "enefit of years of step#"y#step safeguards 'ut in effect during the Cold 5ar to prevent nuclear a idents+ mis)udgments or unauthori7ed laun hes . The United States and the Soviet Union learned from mista,es that !ere less than fatal.
Both countries %ere diligent to ensure that no nuclear %ea'on %as used during the Cold 5ar 2+ design or 2+ accident" Will ne! nu lear nations and the %orld "e as fortunate in the ne;t .0 +ears as %e %ere during the Cold 5ar,

RRRAT: ;$SA;2A&ATG0S

9AC AT: China Spa e 'a e ;A

1. Spa e 'a e no! Want China Times, 2-4-9%11, !S and China $ace 1ff in S'ace Race
Battle(5i<ilea<s&, htt'())%%%"%antchinatimes"com)ne%s-su2class-cnt"as';, id-20110204000002Icid-1101
5i<i9ea<s documents sho% that for the 'ast fe% +ears the !S and China have 2een com'eting in a s'ace arms race" 4icture( ChinaJs ChangJe 2 lunar 'ro2e 're'ared for its eventual launch on 1ct" 1 2010" F$ile 'hoto)ZinhuaG

The latest do uments revealed "y the Wi,i1ea,s !e"site sho! that for the past fe! years the US and China have "een ompeting in a spa e arms ra e, according to a re'ort 2+ the Eail+ 7elegra'h" China revealed its apa"ility to shoot do!n a satellite 5?% miles a"ove the 0arth in Lanuary 9%%<+ an a tion the US vie!ed as a potential threat to its military and ivilian satellites. The US responded "y stri,ing do!n one of its o!n malfun tioning satellites in Fe"ruary 9%%G. 1fficials %or<ing for the then Secretar+ of State CondoleeDDa Rice made a formal 'rotest to
Bei*ing, re'orting that the earlier satellite stri<e infringed on !S rights %hich incited further tensions" #lthough the !S claimed it %as a necessar+ movement to 'revent shreds of the 2ro<en satellites causing environmental haDard

8ei)ing still ounter atta ,ed and a used the US of "uilding a laser !eapon system in Ja'an that could destro+ missiles soon after the+ %ere launched" The sho!s of strength from the t!o superpo!ers+ although disguised as >tests+> !ere a tually military in nature, as revealed in the 5i<i9ea<sJ files" It is also
to the 6arth,

reminiscent of the KStar 5arsK 'rogram 'ro'osed 2+ former 4resident Reagan %hich %as later a2andoned in the 10A0s" 5ashington and Bei*ing %ere 2oth dee'l+ concerned 2+ their 2allistic missile defense in light of these events and could 2arel+ maintain their di'lomatic com'osure, as the+ referred to each other as Kneither allies nor adversaries"K 7he most recent ca2le in Januar+ 2010 lea<ed from the office of !S Secretar+ of State =illar+ Clinton said China shot an anti-satellite missile to destro+ another missile 1.0 miles a2ove the 6arth" Hs" Clinton res'onded 2+ stressing !S concerns over ChinaJs s'ace %ea'on 'rogram and 2allistic missile defense technologies" !S Eefense Secretar+ 9iam $o; %arned against 'otential s'ace attac<s that could %i'e out electronic s+stems last Se'tem2er from rogue countries or terrorists" 7he 'entagon insisted the 'ur'ose for the !S in 2uilding missile defense interce'tors, shi's and control soft%are are designed to 'revent satellite %rec<age from 'olluting the 6arth on $e2"2"

9. Wolf Clause already ,illed Chinese olla"oration and relations. 8usiness 2ision, .-9%11, Congress Bans Scientific Colla2oration %ith China,
Cites =igh 6s'ionage Ris<s& htt'())shanghaiist"com)2010)10)1A)'ostM20"'h'
4oster advertising lecture 2+ co-founder of Java'hile, a hac<ing grou' 2ased in China that has lin<ed %ith multi'le targeted attac<s on !"S" %e2sites, in 200/" A t!o#senten e lause in luded in the U.S.

spending "ill approved "y Congress a fe! !ee,s ago threatens to reverse more than three de ades of onstru tive U.S. engagement !ith the People*s 'epu"li of China. The lause prohi"its the 5hite =ouse 1ffice of Science and 7echnolog+ 4olic+ F(STP4 and the 8ational #eronautics and S'ace #dministration F&ASA4 from oordinating any )oint s ientifi a tivity !ith China. Re'resentative $ran< 5olf FR-:#G,
a long-time critic of the Chinese government %ho chairs a =ouse s'ending committee that oversees several science agencies, inserted the language into the s'ending legislation to 'revent 8#S# or 1S74 from using federal funds to develo', design, 'lan, 'romulgate, im'lement or e;ecute a 2ilateral 'olic+, 'rogram, order, or contract of an+ <ind to 'artici'ate, colla2orate, or coordinate 2ilaterall+ in an+ %a+ %ith China or an+ Chinese-o%ned com'an+"& B+ 'rohi2iting the 1S74 from %or<ing %ith China, 5olf claims the 2an %ill 2ear on the entire 2ilateral relationshi' on science and technolog+"& ItBs the %hole 2all of %a;,& said 5olf in an intervie% %ith Science Insider" #lthough the 2an %ill e;'ire at the end of the current fiscal +ear in 1cto2er, 5olf %ill see< to ma<e the 'rohi2ition on an+ scientific colla2oration 2et%een !"S" research agencies and China 'ermanent" We don*t !ant to give

them the opportunity to ta,e advantage of our te hnology+ and !e have nothing to gain from dealing !ith them+/ said Wolf. . China is spying against us+ and every U.S. government agen y has "een hit "y y"er#

atta ,s. They are stealing te hnology from every ma)or U.S. ompany. They have ta,en te hnology from &ASA+ and they have hit the &SF omputers . . . . Tou name the ompany+ and the Chinese are trying to get its se rets"& In 200C, 5olfBs office %as targeted in a c+2er-attac<, %hich the $ederal Bureau of Investigation
traced to sources o'erating in the 4eo'leBs Re'u2lic of China" S'ea<ing from the floor of the !"S" =ouse of Re'resentatives in June 200A, 5olf said( In #ugust 200C, four of the com'uters in m+ 'ersonal office %ere com'romised 2+ an outside source" 7his source first hac<ed into the com'uter of m+ foreign 'olic+ and human rights staff 'erson, then the com'uters of m+ chief of staff, m+ legislative director, and m+ *udiciar+ staff 'erson" 1n these com'uters %as information a2out all of the case%or< I have done on 2ehalf of 'olitical dissidents and human rights activists around the %orld" 7he histor+ of ChinaBs da22ling in c+2er es'ionage is long" In a stud+ for the !"S"-China 6conomic and Securit+ Revie% Commission, 8orthru' 3rumman created a chronolog+ of alleged Chinese c+2er-es'ionage incidents targeting the !"S" and foreign governments" =ere is a sam'le of the chronolog+( 8ovem2er 2004( !S media re'orts that Chinese hac<ers attac<ed multi'le unclassified !S militar+ s+stems at the !"S" #rm+ Information S+stems 6ngineering Command at $ort =uachuca, #riDona, the Eefense Information S+stems #genc+ in #rlington, :irginia, the 8aval 1cean S+stems Center in San Eiego, California and the !nited States #rm+ S'ace and Strategic Eefense installation in =untsville, #la2ama"11/ #ugust 200.( Hedia re'orting first covers the stor+ of a Chinese com'uter net%or< e;'loitation o'eration codenamed 7itan Rain,& alleging the intrusions into EoE s+stems date 2ac< to 2003" Jul+ 200C( !S media re'orts that intruders 'enetrate the !S Ee'artment of State FEoSG net%or<s, stealing sensitive information and user login credentials, and install 2ac<doors on numerous com'uters, allo%ing them to return to the s+stems at %ill" EoS s+stems administrators are forced to limit Internet access until the investigation is com'leted" #ugust 200C( 4entagon officials state hostile civilian c+2er units o'erating inside China have launched attac<s against the 8I4R867 and have do%nloaded u' to 20 tera2+tes of data" 8ovem2er 200C( Chinese hac<ers attac< the !S 8aval 5ar College com'uter infrastructure, 'ossi2l+ targeting %ar game information on the net%or<s" 7he CollegeBs 5e2 and emails s+stems are do%n for at least t%o %ee<s %hile the investigation ta<es 'lace" June 200/( Hedia re'orts indicate a''ro;imatel+ 1,.00 com'uters are ta<en offline follo%ing a 'enetration into the email s+stem of the 1ffice of the Secretar+ of Eefense F1SEG" 1cto2er 200/( !S media re'orts that China is sus'ected as the source of at least seven versions of sociall+ engineered email targeting 1,100 em'lo+ees at the 1a< Ridge 8ational 9a2 in 1a< Ridge, 7ennessee" 6leven staff 'ossi2l+ o'ened the malicious attachment, allo%ing the attac<ers to gain access to, and 'otentiall+ steal, sensitive data, including a data2ase at the nuclear %ea'ons la2orator+ housing 'ersonnel records going 2ac< to 1000" Ha+ 200A( !"S" authorities investigate claims that Chinese officials surre'titiousl+ co'ied the contents of a !S government la'to' during then- Commerce Secretar+ Carlos 3utierreDB visit to China" 8ovem2er 200A( Hedia sources re'ort that Chinese hac<ers 'enetrate the 5hite =ouse information s+stem on numerous occasions, 'enetrating for 2rief 'eriods 2efore s+stems are 'atched" 8ovem2er 200A( Business 5ee< magaDine 'u2lishes a re'ort on significant c+2er intrusions dating 2ac< several +ears at some of 8#S#Bs most critical sites including the Lenned+ S'ace Center and 3oddard S'ace $light Center" 7he o'erations to 'revent the attac<s from China are codenamed, #vocado"& #ttac<s included sociall+ engineered emails launched at to' officials" #mong the data stolen are o'erational details of the S'ace Shuttle including 'erformance and engine data"

?. Chinese Program too far "ehind to at h up 4eter 'itter, 2-13-9%%G, 7he 8e% S'ace Race( China vs" !S&,
htt'())%%%"time"com)time)%orld)article)0,A.00,1/12A12,00"html ChinaNs spa e program lags far "ehind that of the U.S.+ of ourse. >TheyNre "asi ally re reating the Apollo missions 5% years on,K sa+s Joan Johnson-$reese, chair
of the 8ational Securit+ Studies Ee'artment at the !"S" 8aval 5ar College and an e;'ert on ChinaJs s'ace develo'ment" K$tNs a tortoise#and#hare ra e. TheyNre ha''+ 'lodding along slo%l+

and creating this 'erce'tion of a s'ace race"K

F. China Spa e militari7ation ,ey to pea e Sinhua &e!s Agen y, 11-9%%1, China to militariDe s'ace for 'eace&,
htt'())%%%"militar+"com)ne%s)article)china-to-militariDe-s'ace-for-'eace"html, 6SRC-to'stories"RSS B6IJI83, 8ov 01, -- China !ill develop an air for e !ith integrated apa"ilities for "oth offensive and defensive operations in spa e as !ell as in air+ the ommander of ChinaNs air for e says. >(nly po!er ould prote t pea e ,K the
.0-+ear-old air force commander said in an intervie% %ith Zinhua, 10 da+s ahead of C0th anniversar+ of the founding of the 4eo'leJs 9i2eration #rm+ air force" Su'eriorit+ in s'ace and in air %ould mean, to a certain e;tent, su'eriorit+ over the land and the oceans, Zu said" K#s the air force of a 'eace-loving countr+, %e must forge our s%ords and shields in order to 'rotect 'eace,K he said" #ccording to Zu, not onl+ ma*or air force 'o%ers in the %orld are currentl+ e+eing s'ace and air su'eriorit+, some develo'ing countries are also changing their militar+ strategies to gain u''er ground in the t%o arenas" # countr+ %ithout ade?uate 'o%er %ould have no sa+ %hen faced %ith

challenges 'osed 2+ the militariDation in the s'ace and air, he said" 7he P1A air for e %ould im'rove its detection and earl+ %arning, air stri<ing, anti-missile air defense, strategic deliver+ ca'a2ilities in order to effectivel+ 'rotect ChinaJs interests and help maintain regional and !orld pea e+ Su said. Zu mean%hile stressed that the 49# air force %as 'eace-oriented" KThe

Chinese people is a pea e# loving people+ and China is a responsi"le developing ountry !hi h upholds a national defense poli y that is defensive in nature ,K he said" # 'o%erful
49# air force %ould 'rotect ChinaJs sovereignt+, safet+ and territorial integrit+, and %ould 'la+ a ma*or 'art in maintaining regional sta2ilit+ and %orld 'eace, he said" K The P1A air for e !ill pose no threat

to any other ountry,K Zu said" 7his +ear mar<s the C0th founding anniversar+ of the 4eo'leJs Re'u2lic
of China" Its naval force %as founded on #'ril 23, 1040, and its air force on 8ov" 11 that +ear" 4revious re'ort said the 49# air force %ould 'ut its most advanced %ar'lanes on dis'la+ in the su2ur2s of Bei*ing in 8ovem2er, to mar< its C0th founding anniversar+"

5. Proliferation deters large#s ale regional !ar Eavid Iarl, 4h"E" International Relations at the !niversit+ of Southern California,1HHJ, 4roliferation 4essimism and 6merging 8uclear 4o%ers,&
International Securit+, '" 00-01
su'er'o%er e;'erience" #lthough this school 2ases its claims u'on the !"S-Soviet Cold 5ar nuclear relationshi', it admits of no 2asic e;ce'tion to the im'eratives of nuclear deterrence" 8othing %ithin the schoolBs thesis is intrinsic solel+ to the

The nuclear ."alan e of terror/ is seen as far from fragile. &u lear#armed adversaries+ regardless of ontext+ should "ehave to!ard ea h other li,e the superpo!ers during the Cold War Bs nuclear 'eace"& The reason for this near-a2solute claim is the su''osedl+ immuta"le 6uality of nu lear !eapons: their presen e is the ,ey varia"le in any deterrent situation , 2ecause fear of their devastating onse6uen es simply over!helms the operation of all other fa tors.*Hartin van Creveld alleges that the leaders of medium and small 'o%ers ali<e tend to "e extremely autious %ith regard to the nuclear %ea'ons the+ 'ossess or %ith %hich the+ are faced>the 'roof 2eing that, to date, in every region !here these !eapons have "een introdu ed+ large#s ale interstate !arfare has disappeared./ Shai $eldman su2mits that it is no longer dis'uted that the undeclared nuclear apa"ilities of $ndia and Pa,istan have helped sta"ili7e their relations in recent +ears" $t is diffi ult to see ho! es alation of the onfli t over Iashmir ould have "een avoided !ere it not for the t%o countriesB fear of nu lear es alation"& 7he s'read of nuclear %ea'ons technolog+ is thus vie%ed 2+ o'timists as a 'ositive develo'ment,
so much so that some even advocate its selective a2ettance 2+ current nuclear 'o%ers"B

J. Alt auseD Lapan John Chan, 2-22-9%11, !S threatens militar+ o'tion& against China over s'ace
arms race& htt'())%%%"%s%s"org)articles)2011)fe22011)usch-f22"shtml China refused to a ept the US position that its &ational Eissile ;efen e 3&E;4 program !as .defensive/ and posed no threat to 'ussia and China. Einister -e argued that the US program !ould ."rea, the glo"al "alan e/ "e ause the US already had the greatest offensive military apa"ilities and the 8HE %ould undercut the deterrence a2ilities of other states" The Chinese minister also !arned that US#Lapan ooperation on the &E; had .greatest relevan e to China/ "e ause missile defen e radar in Lapan !ould over all of China. The &E; !ould .for e China to rethin, its nu lear strategy&" 7he Chinese minister
re2uffed a re?uest from Rood to ma<e ChinaBs nuclear arsenal trans'arent& 2ecause that %ould eliminate its deterrent value&" 7he assistant foreign minister assured Rood that China %ould never see< nuclear su'eriorit+ 2+ follo%ing the footste's of the Soviet !nion&"

(n spa e technolog+, Rood %as told that China had not

. rossed any thresholds/ that threatened the US leadership+ "ut China . annot a ept others setting limits on our apa"ilities &"

<. Alt auseD South China Seas Agence France-Presse, C-23-9%11,&!"S" read+ to arm 4hili''ines amid China
tension&, htt'())%%%"ra%stor+"com)rs)2011)0C)23)u-s-read+-to-arm-'hili''inesamid-china-tension) 5#S=I83718 > The United States said Thursday it !as ready to provide hard!are to moderni7e the military of the Philippines+ !hi h vo!ed to >stand up to aggressive a tion> amid rising tension at sea !ith China.
$oreign Secretar+ #l2ert del Rosario, on a visit to 5ashington, said the 4hili''ines ho'ed to lease e?ui'ment to u'grade its aged fleet and called for the allies to revam' their relationshi' in light of the friction %ith China" K We

are determined and ommitted to supporting the defense of the Philippines,K Secretar+ of State =illar+ Clinton told a *oint ne%s conference %hen as<ed a2out the hard%are
%ish-list from the 4hili''ines" Clinton said the t%o nations %ere %or<ing Kto determine %hat are the additional assets that the 4hili''ines needs and ho% %e can 2est 'rovide those"K She said del Rosario %ould meet Eefense Secretar+ Ro2ert 3ates and other 4entagon officials" 7 ensions in the strategi and resour e#

ri h South China Sea have es alated in re ent !ee,s, %ith the 4hili''ines and :ietnam alarmed at %hat the+ sa+ are increasingl+ aggressive actions 2+ Bei*ing in the dis'uted %aters" Several Southeast Asian nations have "een see,ing loser relationships !ith the United States+ !hi h sin e last year has alled loudly for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. KWe are on erned that re ent in idents in the South China Sea ould undermine pea e and sta"ility ,K
Clinton told re'orters, urging Kall sides to e;ercise self-restraint"K Eel Rosario, %ith Clinton at his side, said that the 4hili''ines %as a small countr+ 2ut is K're'ared to do %hat is necessar+ to stand u' to an+ aggressive action in our 2ac<+ard"K 7he 4hili''ines has announced the de'lo+ment in dis'uted %aters of its nav+ flagshi', the Ra*ah =uma2on" 1ne of the %orldJs oldest %arshi's, the Ra*ah =uma2on %as a former !S 8av+ frigate that served during 5orld 5ar II" 7he 4hili''ines has historicall+ 2ought second-hand hard%are, 2ut del Rosario said that 4resident Benigno #?uino has allocated 11 2illion 'esos F2.2 million dollarsG to u'grade the nav+" Shortl+ ahead of his tal<s %ith Clinton, del Rosario said that the 4hili''ines %as as<ing the !nited States for Kan o'erational lease so that %e can loo< at fairl+ ne% e?ui'ment and 2e a2le to get our hands on that ?uic<l+"K K5e need to have the resources to 2e a2le to stand and defend ourselves and, I thin<, to the e;tent that %e can do that, %e 2ecome a stronger all+ for +ou,K del Rosario said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies" 7he !nited States signed a defense treat+ %ith the 4hili''ines in 10.1, five +ears after the archi'elagoJs inde'endence from !S colonial rule" Eel Rosario said he 2elieved the treat+ -- %hich calls for mutual defense in the event of an attac< in Kthe 4acific areaK -covers the South China Sea" 7he !nited States has 2een 'roviding militar+ aid to the 4hili''ines 'rimaril+ to fight Islamic militants in the %a<e the Se'tem2er 11, 2001 attac<s" Eel Rosario said that #l-Taeda-lin<ed #2u Sa++af has largel+ 2een defeated, estimating that onl+ around 200 guerrillas remained" K7he 4hili''inesJ relative success in counter-insurgenc+ cou'led %ith 'ressures in the regional environment com'el a reorientation of focus and resources,K he said" K# reset in our relations has therefore 2ecome an im'erative to allo% the alliance to continue to meet domestic goals %hile contri2uting to glo2al sta2ilit+,K he said" China has said that it !ill not

resort to the use of for e in the South China Sea "ut has also !arned the United States to stay out of territorial spats. $ "elieve some ountries no! are playing !ith fire. And $ hope the US !onNt "e "urned "y this fire+> ChinaNs vi e foreign minister Cui Tian,ai said.

9AC AT: 'ussia Aerospa e ;A

1. 'ussian e onomi ompetitiveness is lo! no! 8S' 'ussia, develo'ing Hosco% as a glo2al financial centre, *ul+"A" 9%11,
htt'())%%%"2sr-russia"com)en)2an<ing-a-finance)item)1//2-develo'ing-mosco%-asa-glo2al-financial-centre-e;ecutive-'ers'ectives"html The 'ussian government has "een a tively pushing the agenda of developing Eos o! as a glo"al finan ial entre, in line %ith 9ondon and 8e% Ror<" Follo!ing the finan ial risis of 9%%G and the glo"al e onomi slo!do!n in 9%%H+ the 'ussian e onomy has struggled to return to the high gro!th tra)e tory that other emerging e onomies of the so-called BRIC grou'N namel+ BraDil, India and China have a hieved" A re ent World 0 onomi Forum 3W0F4 report on 'ussia analy7ed the e onomi ompetitiveness of the ountry*s finan ial system and on luded that unless it underta,es ma)or finan ial reforms+ it !ill fall further "ehind the other emerging e onomies.

6ven the -ead 'ussian e onomist agrees 2oi e of 'ussia, ne% directions outlined for strateg+ 2020, *une"20" 9%11,
htt'())english"ruvr"ru)2011)0C)20).2100..."html :ladimir 4utin is %ell a%are that the government %ill have to %ind u' man+ effective 2ut 'o'ulist measures in favor of 'ragmatic and sometimes un'o'ular solutions" #mong other things, 'ussia*s sta"ili7ation fund+ !hi h proved effi ient during the risis "ut is no! hampering moderni7ation+ !ill "e done a!ay !ith. 7here are also ideas to revise the monetar+ 'olic+, another develo'er of Strateg+ 2020, head of the 'ussian Presidential A ademy of &ational 0 onomy and Pu"li Administration :ladimir Eau pointed out( >We an no longer ompensate for poor ompetitiveness "y manipulating ex hange rates. Cur2ing inflation should 2e accom'anied 2+ a dro' in refinancing rates and so the conversion from e;ternal funds to internal ones" $t is lear that !ithout resolving this issue !e !ill hardly manage to deal !ith t!o other hallenges fa ing us" I mean prospe ts for the 'ussian ru"le as a regional reserve urren y and those for 'ussia*s "e oming an international finan ial enter+> :ladimir Hau said"

9. Plan solves for 'ussian aerospa e Eavid 8ernstein, engineering research associate at Stanford universit+Bs center
for international securit+ and coo'eration, commercialiDation of Russian technolog+ in coo'eration %ith #merican com'anies, 1HHH, htt'())iisd2"stanford"edu)'u2s)10230)2ernstein00"'df 7his can 2e illustrated 2+ com'aring su2sectors of aeros'ace" Cooperative te hnology ommer iali7ation in aviation and spa e are very different. In the latter, Ameri an partners are utili7ing ma)or systems+ su h as Proton "oosters+ designed and manufa tured in 'ussia. In aviation, there are t%o t+'es of ventures" In the first,
#merican com'anies Fe"g", BoeingG are contracting for diverse elements of research, engineering, and testing, %hich the+ then incor'orate into aircraft manufactured outside of Russia" In these cases, the technolog+ transfer is largel+, 2ut not com'letel+, from Russia to the !nited States" 7here are also 'ro*ects, such as the I90C, in %hich !"S" com'anies Fe"g", 4ratt I5hitne+, CollinsG have entered into a *oint venture for the 'roduction of Russian airliners utiliDing !"S"-develo'ed engines and avionics" The ultimate plan is that many of these

omponents !ill "e manufa tured in 'ussia. $n this ase+ the main

te hnology transfer is from the United States to 'ussia " 7he financial via2ilit+ of the I90C is not +et assured as sales have 2een ver+ lo%" The international spa e ventures have "een a ma)or fa tor in the revitali7ation of the 'ussian spa e industry !hereas the ivil aviation industry is still in a pre arious finan ial ondition !ith very fe! sales of air raft.

?. US Aerospa e ompetition is ,ey to 'ussian spa e program 'euters, stagnation fears haunt Russian s'ace 'rogram, a'ril"10" 9%11,
htt'())%%%"reuters"com)article)2011)04)10)us-russia-s'ace-gagarinid!S7R6/3010C20110410

But much of that initial ra'ture has no% faded, leaving nostalgia among man+ in Russia for the da+s %hen the struggle 2et%een the t%o nucleararmed su'er'o%ers fueled and financed the 'ursuit of ne% horiDons in science" U.S. astronauts and 'ussian osmonauts >!ere never enemies in

spa e+ "ut !hen !e "egan ooperating on the ground they ut the funding+> said veteran osmonaut Georgy Gre h,o+ <H. >0ven the Ameri ans !ould all us and say Nlaun h something ne!+ so theyNll give us money.N> With ompetition e lipsed "y ooperation+ 'ussiaNs spa e agen y has survived over the past t!o de ades "y hiring out the third seat a"oard the Soyu7 to foreigners.

4" Eemogra'hic shifts ma<e Russian economic decline inevita2le 8an,ing and sto , ex hange" $inance" 6conomics FRussiaG, 9=?)200.
=o%ever, 2+ the time it is going to ha''en, it can 'rove that there is no one in Russia to dou2le 3E4" #ccording to Russian Statistics, "eginning !ith 9%%<+ num"er of e onomi ally a tive people !ill start shrin,ing "y 1 million 'eo'le a year. A ording to Hr" So<olin, head of the 'ussian Statisti s+ demography >!ill "e a serious e onomi limitation of our gro!th"K K7hen dou2ling of 3E4 %ill 2e out of the ?uestion,K agrees Hr" Lle'ach"

5. 'ussian e onomi de line doesn*t ause lash out or !ar The &e! 'epu"li , 2)/)9%%%
#t the time and since, o2servers of the events of 10A0-1000 in 6uro'e have 2een 'ro'erl+ amaDed at %hat ha''ened and at %hat did not ha''en" 7he Soviet em'ire colla'sed in 6astern 6uro'e" Eivided 3erman+ %as unified" Eemocratic governments re'laced communist dictatorshi's in 6astern 6uro'e" 7he Soviet !nion itself im'loded and %as reincarnated as ?uasi-democratic, ?uasi- authoritarian Russia" Ret a unified 3erman+ has not 2ecome a menacing $ourth Reich, and 'ussia+ despite a ollapse of its e onomy and the spe ta ular loss of the Cold War+ did not turn in "itterness and frustration to the alliance of nationalists and ommunists !ho !ere see,ing to reverse the humiliations of a de ade ago

J. 'ussia annot "e ompetitive in the spa e industry and is not lin,ed to the e onomy Leith Crane and #rtur Usanov, director of R#8EBs environment energ+ and economic develo'ment 'rogram, role of high technolog+ industries, 9%1%, 'ro*ect
muse

Spa e is not a dynami industry in the glo"al e onomy " Commercial satellite launches have 2een fe%er than e;'ected as fi"er opti a"les have satisfied most of the in reased demand for ommuni ations apa ity despite the extraordinary gro!th of the internet. Host launches are still 'urchased 2+ governments" 7he s'ace 'rogram in the
!nited States a''ears to 2e in a 'eriod of retrenchment, and in 6uro'e it also faces 2udgetar+ 'ressures" #lthough China and India have e;'anding 'rograms, the+ tend to favor their o%n manufacturers" 'ussiaNs good

tra , re ord and "udgetary pressures in the United States provide room for ontinued sales of laun hes and ro ,ets as demand for o2servation satellites remains, "ut the industry does not sho! signs of dynami gro!th" 8e% roc<et designs a''ear
to 2e <ee'ing Russia com'etitive" Civilian aviation 'resents a different stor+ %ithin Russia, there is a de2ate a2out %hether the Russian industr+ %ill 2e a2le to maintain stand-alone ca'acit+ to assem2le civilian aircraft or %ould 2e 2etter off colla2orating %ith 5estern manufacturers" X Western ompanies have omplimented

'ussian apa"ilities in design, 'recision engineering, es'eciall+ tur2ine 2lades, and so'histicated materials "ut have diffi ulty in ac?uisitions or greenfield investments, in 'art "e ause of se urity on erns and high levels of orruption" In our vie%, des'ite the concerns of RussiaJs militar+ esta2lishment, the ans%er is clear( 'ussian ompanies have done !ell olla"orating !ith the international industry "ut have failed !hen they have attempted to go it alone. RussiaBs successes %ith *oint ventures and the failure of
former Soviet 'roducts on international mar<ets sho% the future of the industr+"

<. Stru tural "arriers prevent 'ussian spa e ompetitiveness

James ("erg+ s'ace anal+st for 8BC 8e%s, and Johnson S'ace Center Hission Control o'erator and or2ital designer, Cha'ter 22( International 4ers'ectives( Russia, 7o%ard a 7heor+ of S'ace 'o%er, Institute for 8ational Strategic Studies at 8E!, 9%11, htt'())%%%"ndu"edu)'ress)li2)'df)s'ace'o%er)s'ace'o%er"'df #t the same time, 'ussia sho!s no signs of developing a apa"ility for ma)or innovation in spa e raft engineering or of demonstrating more than lip# servi e interest in 6uantum advan es in spa e operations apa"ilities. $n remental progress has "een the !at h!ord for de ades, usuall+ not 2+ choice
2ut out of necessit+ 2ecause all 'revious attem'ts at 2rea<out 'ro*ects Fhuman lunar flight, advanced ro2otic Hars 'ro2es, the Buran shuttle, the 4ol+us-S<if famil+ of or2ital 2attle stationsG ended in humiliating frustration" 4roviding commercial launch services for foreign customers has 'rovided multidimensional 2enefits to Russia" Be+ond the significant cash flo%, such activities fund 2ooster u'grades and, in the case of converted militar+ missiles, fund validation of lifetime e;tension efforts for still-de'lo+ed missile %ea'ons" Eilitary appli ations of

spa e systems remain uninspired+ !ith riti al onstellations Fsuch as the missile earl+ %arning netG still signifi antly degraded and li,ely to remain so for many years" Russian officials have evidentl+ decided that, despite any pu"li posturings over U.S. military threats+ there is essentially no prospe t of a tual hostilities in the foreseea2le future and hen e little pressure to re onstitute military spa e assets to a Soviet-era level" Russia retains a nuclear-armed o'erational antimissile s+stem around Hosco% that,
if u'graded to hit-to-<ill guidance, could 'rovide significant antisatellite ca'a2ilit+N it is also develo'ing small ro2otic rendeDvous s'acecraft similar to !"S" 'ro*ects that have 'otential antisatellite ca'a2ilities at an+ altitude into %hich the+ can 2e launched" Attempts at domesti ommer iali7ation of spa e#related

servi es+ in luding ommuni ations+ navigation+ and mapping+ remain seriousl+>'erha's irremedia"lyD hamstrung "y the re ent resurgen e of a traditional 'ussian top#do!n stru ture of authority. 8ureau rats are "eing ordered to implement !ider use of spa e infrastru ture+ and after man+ +ears of ros+ re'orts of 'rogress, Hosco% ma+ realiDe that it is almost all, as usual, a sham" There is still little indi ation of su essful exploitation of spa e dis overies and spa edeveloped te hnologies F%hat 8#S# and the 6uro'eans call s'in-offsG as a means of improving the te hnologi al s,ills of 'ussian industry. The spa e industry+ as a com'onent of the national defense industr+, remains stri tly ompartmentali7ed from

'ussiaNs ivil e onomy+ and the resurgen e of "road espionage la!s Fand several recent highl+ 'u2liciDed convictionsG %ill <ee' this ghettoiDation in force" This in turn may re6uire other government measures, from 'atent 'urchase to industrial es'ionage, to a 6uire te hnologies that some 'ussian industries may already possess "ut are in pra ti e for"idden to share internally"

9AC AT: I('US ;A

1. Won*t passD TAA is a prere6uisite James 7" 8erger, freelance 2usiness %riter and C61 of James 7" Berger)Har<et Strategies, <=1F)2011, $ree 7rade #greements St+mied 2+ 4olitical Road2loc<s,&
htt'())%%%"areadevelo'ment"com)6conomics3overnment4olic+)Jul+2011)!S-freetrade-agreements-organiDed-la2or-/3C.3/3A3"shtml\"7i*0fH2LRr1
In his Januar+ 2011 State of the !nion address, 4resident Barac< 12ama made a 'lea to Congress to 'ass a trade agreement %ith South Lorea that %ill su''ort at least /0,000 #merican *o2s"& The South Iorean

agreement+ as !ell as agreements !ith Colom"ia and Panama 3a total pa ,age valued at U1? "illion4 is on the threshold of "eing sent to Congress for ratifi ation D "ut there is a road"lo ,. &one of these fr ee trade agreements 3FTAs4 !ill go to Congress unless an a ord !ith Congress is rea hed on expanded su"sidies for )o"less !or,ers. #ccording to 5hite =ouse economic aide 3ene S'erling, .The administration !ill not su"mit implementing legislations on the three pending FTAs until !e have an agreement !ith Congress on the rene!al of a ro"ust+ expanded TAA 3trade ad)ustment assistan e4 onsistent !ith the o")e tives of the 9%%H trade ad)ustment assistan e la!./ The "ottom line is that the White -ouse !ants Congress to authori7e more than U9 "illion in trade ad)ustment assistan e or it !ill "lo , these ma)or trade agreements that promise to reate thousands of ne! )o"s and positively impa t a num"er of important U.S. industries.

And repu"li ans have "oy otted TAA $elicia Sonme7, Congressional re'orter for 7he 5ashington 4ost, <=5)2011,
=ouse 'anel defies 5hite =ouse on trade deals %ith Colom2ia, 4anama and South Lorea,& htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)2logs)2cham2ers)'ost)house-'anel-defies%hite-house-on-trade-deals-%ith-colom2ia-'anama-and-south<orea)2011)0/)0.)g=T#ls!TD=M2log"html
Re'u2licans have su''orted 7## in the 'ast, 2ut at a time of record de2t and heightened attention to federal s'ending, G(P opposition to the U1 "illion program has intensified. 1ast

Thursday+ all 11 'epu"li ans on the Senate Finan e Committee 2o+cotted a planned meeting on the trade deals+ iting timing issues as !ell as the White -ouse*s insisten e on the in lusion of TAA .

9. SIFTA !on*t pass in AugustDthe delay till Septem"er means it !ill ta,e even longer. Choi -e#su,, 7he Lorea 7imes, !"S" unli<el+ to 'ass Lorea $7# in #ugust( minister&, <#9J-2011, htt'())%%%"<oreaherald"com)2usiness)Eetail"*s',
ne%sH9Id-20110/2C000CAA The Iorea#U.S. Free Trade Agreement is unli,ely to "e passed "y the !"S" Congress in #ugust, Lorean 7rade Hinister Lim Jong-hoon said Honda+" Lim said that the negotiations for raising the U.S. government de"t# eiling+ and diffi ulties surrounding the pro ess+ have ta,en enter stage ma,ing it unli,ely that the trade pa t !ith Iorea !ill "e pro essed !ithin the next month. 7he situation 2ecoming difficult is not 2ecause of the $7# 2ut due to F!"S"G government de2t,& Lim said adding that ever+thing a''eared to 2e going

according to 'lan& until earl+ Jul+" =e added that the im'act the trade 'act %as e;'ected to have on the !"S" trade figures %as not on a scale that %ill 'rove 2urdensome to the !"S" econom+"& Regarding the situation in Lorea, Lim said that some 'rogress could 2e made in #ugust" $f 3the pro ess4 starts in Septem"er+ time !ill "e signifi antly delayed+/ Lim said citing 'rocesses such as the annual 'arliamentar+ audit as 'otential causes of the dela+" $rom such 'ers'ective, it is necessar+ to regard it not as an issue that should 2e seen through to the end once started, 2ut one should 2e conducted in stages"&

?. Won*t passD South Iorean demo rats not on"oard 6van 'amstad, Lorean corres'ondent for 7he 5all Street Journal, <=91)2011,
Lorean 1''osition Lnoc<s !"S" Eeal,& htt'())online"%s*"com)article)SB100014240.3111003..4004./C4./30130C30423C" html,mod-googlene%sM%s* S61!9>The leader of South IoreaNs main opposition party on Wednesday said the South Iorea#U.S. free#trade agreement needs a ma)or overhaul+ another sign that the dealNs ratifi ation in Parliament here !ill hinge on the !illingness of the ruling party to use its ma)ority status to pass it. In an
intervie%, Sohn =a<-<+u, the o''osition Eemocratic 4art+ chairman, said it is still 'ossi2le for the 'act to gain su''ort from his 'art+" K5e are not totall+ against the free-trade agreement, 2ut there are conditions %eJd li<e to see met,K Hr" Sohn said" The party on Tuesday issued a statement urging Iorean

trade offi ials to see, ne! negotiations !ith the U.S. to ma,e 1% hanges in the pa t+ in luding delaying the redu tions on food tariffs+ !hi h are fundamental to the deal. The party also said it !onNt support the FTA unless ne! Iorean la!s are passed to ompensate ompanies and individuals !ho might "e hurt "y its implementation.

F. &o politi al apital O de"t eiling Hatthe% ;i ,enson, 'rofessor of 'olitical science at Hiddle2ur+ College" =e
taught 'reviousl+ at =arvard !niversit+, %here he also received his 4h"E", %or<ing under the su'ervision of 'residential scholar Richard 8eustadt, 12ama didnBt cave& on the de2t ceiling&, G#%1-2011, htt'())mo2ile"salon"com)'olitics)%arMroom)2011)0A)01)o2amaMdic<inson) In his televised remar<s ("ama loo,ed+ in a %ord, "eaten -- understanda2l+ so" =e %as ?uite candid in admitting that this !as not the deal he !anted -- indeed, it ma+ not 2e the deal an+one %anted, 2ut it does avert a de2t shutdo%n, and, as he noted, it leaves o'en the faint 'ossi2ilit+ that further refinements can ha''en 2et%een no% and 8ovem2er" But ma<e no mista<e a2out it( In terms of 2udget 'olic+, ("ama !on almost nothing here" Host significantl+, there %as nothing gained on the revenue side -- not even a closing of ta; loo'holes favoring the Koil com'aniesK and KC61s fl+ing cor'orate *etsK that figured so 'rominentl+ in his call for a K2alancedK solution to the de2t crisis" F=int( those KrefinementsK %ill not include ta; hi<es in the 14 months 2efore a 'residential election"G 4redicta2l+, although the in< is not +et dr+ on the de2t agreement -- indeed, thereBs no in< even on the legislation -- ("ama is getting ru ified on left#leaning "logs+ amid headlines suggesting the 'ight !on Fsee also comments hereG, %ith charges that he %as outmaneuvered -- that he caved" 9et me 2riefl+ ta<e issue %ith the 'revailing 'olitical sentiment among 12amaBs Eemocratic 2ase" Since the da+ 12ama %as elected Findeed, even 2efore he %as electedYG IBve detected %hat I 2elieve to 2e a com'letel+ unrealistic, emotion-driven faith among his hard-core

su''orters that he %as different from other 'oliticians -- that he could someho% overcome the 'olitical constraints and institutional 2arriers that have limited the 'o%er of all his 'residential 'redecessors" I sa% it in the de2ate regarding 3uantanamo, militar+ commissions, the 'u2lic o'tion, #fghanistan, e;tending the Bush ta; hi<es and no% this" 7his sentiment %as 'erha's never more manifest than in the fervent 2elief among some that he %as 'la+ing a Kdee'K game during these negotiations, maneuvering to a 'osition %here he could cut the 3ordian <not of 2udget im'asse %ith a master stro<e F14th amendment an+one,G" #nd in this latest occurrence, %hen he failed to fulfill these outlandish e;'ectations, his erst%hile su''orters 'roceeded to 2lame it on a character defect -- a lac< of fortitude, an a2sence of courage, or 'erha's sim'le 'olitical naivet+" The reality is that this "udget out ome had nothing to do !ith personal !ea,ness+ and everything to do !ith politi al !ea,ness . ("ama is fighting for his politi al life. 'ight no! he*s in Limmy Carter territory ## his approval rating is the lo!est it has ever "een+ the e onomy sho!s no signs of re overy 3indeed+ it may "e getting !orse4+ the -ouse is o upied "y an opposing party energi7ed "y ne!ly-ele ted representatives onvin ed they have "een sent to Washington to do God*s !or, "y utting spending+ and $ haven*t even "egun dis ussing foreign affairs. #nd, given that he has less than 14 months to turn it around, and that 'residents are held res'onsi2le for the nationBs econom+, he %asnBt going to start that 'olitical recover+ 2+ %atching the government default on its loan o2ligations" 3iven this conte;t, the idea that this president !as in a position of politi al strength during these "udget negotiations is pure fantasy" Indeed, it should 2e the 7ea 4art+ mem2ers %ho are mad -- in all li<elihood the+ could have forced a 2alanced 2udget vote as 'art of the 'ac<age" 5hereBs the outrage at Boehner, IsnBt he the one %ho caved, H+ 'oint is sim'le" 12ama had t%o im'eratives during this fight( 'revent a default and get this issue off the ta2le until after 2012" 4eriod" 7o achieve that he %ould have gone as far Right as the Eemocratic 9eft %ould allo%" #nd, in the end, he 'rett+ much did and he accom'lished his t%o o2*ectives" In short, this is 'ro2a2l+ the 2est deal 12ama %as going to negotiate" ItBs not li<e he didnBt tr+ to get revenue increases on the ta2le -- in fact, he re*ected the original Boehner deal 2ecause it didnBt have enough revenues" In the end, ("ama didn*t have the politi al apital to leverage anything else from the -ouse 'epu"li ans. F#maDingl+, there is a cadre of hard-core activists including Eemocratic legislators %ho are, tonight, still urging him to invo<e the 14th amendmentYG IBm not sa+ing 12ama handled this fla%lessl+, although IBm hard-'ressed to 'oint out o2vious s'ecific errors" But the result %as al%a+s li<el+ to come out 'rett+ much %here it did, %hen it did" I said as much, %ee<s ago" Ha+2e some of +ou can tell me %h+ so man+ ver+ smart 'eo'le have, since the da+ 12ama %as inaugurated, deluded themselves into thin<ing that this admittedl+ ver+ smart man, al2eit one %ith limited 'olitical e;'erience at the national level, %as someho% going to ste' into office and 'roceed to re%rite the 'olitical la%s that have governed 'residential 'olitics for the last t%o centuries, IBm listening"

5. &o lin,D a. Fiat O the ma)ority of Congress has to pass the plan+ they !on*t "a ,lash against themselves ". &o spillover "et!een unrelated agenda items . ;A*s intrinsi O poli yma,er ould pass "oth J. Winners Win Jonathan Singer, J"E" !niversit+ of California W Ber<ele+ and editor of H+EE, 3-39%%H, B+ 6;'ending Ca'ital, 12ama 3ro%s =is Ca'ital,& H+EE,
htt'())m+dd"com)stor+)2000)3)3)101A2.)042A KWhat is ama7ing here is ho! mu h politi al apital ("ama has spent in the first six !ee,s,K said Eemocratic 'ollster 4eter E" =art, %ho conducted this surve+ %ith Re'u2lican 'ollster Bill HcInturff" KAnd against that+ he stands at the end of this six !ee,s !ith as mu h or more apital in the "an,.> 4eter =art gets at a <e+ 'oint" Some "elieve that politi al apital is finite+ that it an "e used up. To an extent thatNs true. 8ut itJs im'ortant to note, too, that politi al apital an "e regenerated ## and, s'ecificall+, that !hen a President expends a great deal of apital on a measure that !as diffi ult to ena t and then su eeds+ he an "uild up more apital" Indeed+ that appears to "e !hat is happening !ith Barac< ("ama+ !ho !ent to the mat to pass the stimulus 'ac<age out of the gate, got it passed des'ite nearunanimous o''osition of the Re'u2licans on Ca'itol =ill, and is "eing re!arded 2+ the #merican 'u2lic as a result" 7a<e a loo< at the num2ers" 4resident ("ama no! has a JG per ent favora"le rating in the 8BC-5SJ 'oll, his highest ever sho%ing in the surve+" 8earl+ half of those surve+ed F4/ 'ercentG vie% him ver+ 'ositivel+" 12amaJs Eemocratic 4art+ earns a res'ecta2le 40 'ercent favora2le rating" 7he Re'u2lican 4art+, ho%ever, is in the toilet, %ith its %orst ever sho%ing in the histor+ of the 8BC-5SJ 'oll, 2C 'ercent favora2le" 1n the ?uestion of 2lame for the 'artisanshi' in 5ashington, .C 'ercent 'lace the onus on the Bush administration and another 41 'ercent 'lace it on Congressional Re'u2licans" Ret *ust 24 'ercent 2lame Congressional Eemocrats, and a mere 11 'ercent 2lame the 12ama administration" So at this 'oint, !ith 4resident ("ama seemingl+ "enefiting from his am"itious a tions and the Re'u2licans sin<ing further and further as a result of their <nee-*er<ed o''osition to that agenda, there appears to "e no reason not to push for!ard on anything from universal healthcare to energ+ reform to ending the %ar in Ira?"

<. A ma)ority of demo rats+ repu"li ans+ and the pu"li agree that spa e leadership is important Pe! 'esear h Center, surve+ research grou', <=5)2011, Ha*orit+ Sees !"S"
9eadershi' in S'ace as 6ssential, Shuttle 4rogram :ie%ed as 3ood Investment& htt'())'eo'le-'ress"org)2011)0/)0.)ma*orit+-sees-u-s-leadershi'-in-s'ace-asessential)1) 1n the eve of the final mission of the !"S" s'ace shuttle 'rogram, most Ameri ans say the United States must "e at the forefront of future spa e exploration" $ift+ +ears after the first #merican manned s'ace flight, nearly six#in#ten 35G@4 say it is essential that the

United States ontinue to "e a !orld leader in spa e exploration N a2out four-inten sa+ this is not essential F3AQG" 1oo,ing "a , on the shuttle program+ a ma)ority 355@4 say it has "een a good investment for the ountry" =o%ever, this is lo%er than
it %as in the 10A0sN throughout the earl+ +ears of the shuttle 'rogram, si;-in-ten or more said the 'rogram %as a good investment Ea)orities in nearly all demographi groups say it is essential

that the U.S. ontinue to "e at the vanguard of spa e exploration. #nd partisan groups largely agree that Ameri an leadership is vital+ although this vie! is more prevalent among 'epu"li ans. T!o#thirds of 'epu"li ans 3J<@4 say the nation must ontinue to play an international leadership role in spa e explorationA smaller ma)orities of ;emo rats 35F@4 and independents 35<@4 say this.

G. The Status Yuo lin,s O voting neg means the plan omes up for a vote and fails+ still drains apital H. Allian e resilient Cor+don $reland, =arvard 8e%s 1ffice, 0-14-9%%H, $irm allies, 'ast and
'resent,& htt'())ne%s"harvard"edu)gaDette)stor+)2000)00)firm-allies-'ast-and'resent) In 10/., Lathleen Ste'hens %as fresh out of 4rescott College in #riDona %hen she arrived in Resan, South Lorea, as a 4eace Cor's volunteer" 7he countr+ %as still ver+ 'oor and isolated" Host 'eo'le in her village had never seen a 5esterner, and it %as hard to get a 'ass'ort" But even de ades after a tru e !as de lared in the Iorean War F10.0-10.3G, Stephens felt a sense of .shared sa rifi e/ 2et%een South Lorea and the !nited States during her 4eace Cor's tour > a relationshi' forged in 2lood,& she told a recent =arvard audience" 7oda+, South Lorea is sta2le, 'ros'erous, and cosmo'olitan and en*o+s the 13th largest econom+ in the %orld" #nd toda+ South Lorea also has Ste'hens, %ho last +ear %as named !"S" am2assador to the countr+ in %hich she s'ent t%o +ears of her +outh" She visited the John $" Lenned+ Jr" $orum last %ee< FSe't" 11G and, in a rare dou2le am2assadorial a''earance, too< the stage %ith her South Lorean counter'art, =an Euc<-soo" 6arlier this +ear, =an > a former 'rime minister of South Lorea and one of the architects of its economic 2oom > assumed the duties of am2assador to the !nited States" In a conversation in front of a ca'acit+ cro%d at the forum, the t%o di'lomats reflected on the historical strength of the alliance and %hat issues might 'ut it at ris<" Both agreed it !ould ta,e a lot to sha,e a politi al relationship that dates "a , to the 1Hth entury+ and one that !as forged in steel "y the Iorean War. $t is an allian e .less "rittle and far more resilient than it ever has "een,& said Ste'hens" -an, %ho in 10A4 earned a -arvard Ph.;. in economics, alled the !"S"-South Lorea allian e the foundation of his nation*s economic gro%th, prosperity+ and se urity./ $t remains so firm and mutual today, he added, that it ould "e an international model of ooperation > the exemplar allian e relationship of the future"& Hoderating the 'u2lic conversation 2et%een am2assadors %as 3raham #llison, a terrorism scholar %ho has studied the threat 'osed 2+ a nuclear-armed 8orth Lorea" =e is Eouglas Eillon 4rofessor of 3overnment at =arvard Lenned+ School F=LSG and director of the Belfer Center for Science and International #ffairs" S<e'tical and 'ro2ing, Allison prompted the t%o diplomats to imagine a near future in !hi h the traditional allian e en*o+ed 2+ the !nited States and South Lorea goes sour" In sum, he as<ed, %hat could go %rong and %hat issues need attending to, &either

of the am"assadors "udged much" $n fa t, said =an, there is a ver+, ver+ fundamental notion that U.S.#Iorea relations annot 2e s%a+ed 2+ one or t%o events./ $t is and has "een an allian e, he said, that has never "een .underestimated or disregarded. $t !as al!ays entral"&

1%. &o Iorean onfli t Rong I!on, 5ashington-2ased anal+st of international affairs, 1#G-2011,
Hisunderstandings ma+ 'rove fatal,& #sia 7imes, htt'())%%%"atimes"com)atimes)Lorea)H#0AEg02"html With the mounting ost of oer ive "argaining, the &orth Ioreans are not playing a Dero-sum strateg+ game li<e the Ja'anese 6m'ire in 1041, 2ut a 'ost-famine negative-sum survival game" &orth Iorea currentl+ has t!o ma*or militar+ assets( its ca'acit+ to o2literate Seoul %ith its for!ard artillery, and its nu lear arsenal" # 4earl =ar2or-li<e attac< 2+ 8orth
Lorea %ill involve one and or 2oth of these assets" =o%ever, there are ?uestions as to %hether 8orth Lorea has either the technological <no%-ho% or the desire to actuall+ utiliDe these militar+ advantages" There have

"een dou"ts on !hether or not the t%o sensational nu lear tests have a tually "een su essful" Several o"servers of the 8orth Lorean nuclear crisis from 2oth the !nited States and Russia have ommented on the 'ossi2ilit+ that 2oth tests may have merel+ Kfi77ledK" Furthermore+ Pyongyang is a long !ays from a tually produ ing an inter# ontinental "allisti missile that an relia"ly arry the ne essary nu lear payload" This leaves the dire t artillery stri,e on Seoul as the only strategicall+ advantageous militar+ asset for 8orth Lorea" -o!ever, this !ould "e an inappropriate use of force for 4+ong+angJs foreign 'olic+ o2*ectives" &orth Iorea more or less gave up on their initial o2*ective of unifying the peninsula in the 1H<%s, %hen the E4RL leadershi' recogniDed their countr+Js relative economic 2ac<%ardness com'ared to South Lorea" U.V Since then, PyongyangNs poli ies have "een geared to!ards coercive 2argaining that %ill 2ring either legitima y or much-needed e onomi assistan e to the regime" #n+ attac< on Seoul !ould )eopardi7e the fine line 2et%een mu h#needed su"sidies and all-out %ar" In terms of recent clashes, the scuttling of the Cheonan and the shelling of Reon'+eong Island revealed fatal %ea<nesses in the South Lorean defensesN ho%ever, it did not redu e the deterren e against all-out %ar "e ause &orth Iorea annot afford to ta,e an+ 'h+sical 2lo%s in its fragile state"

9AC AT: Spending ;A

1. Spending on !ars in Afghanistan and $ra6 out!eigh Eevin ;!yer, #BC 8e%s, C-22-9%11, #fghanistan 5ar Costs 9oom 9arge 1ver
12ama 7roo's #nnouncement,& htt'())a2cne%s"go"com)4olitics)afghanistan-%arcosts-soar-o2ama-troo's-announcement)stor+,id-13002A.3
gra''les %ith de2t and deficit crises, 4resident 12amaJs 'lanned dra%do%n of !"S" troo's in #fghanistan ne;t month fulfills a 'romise he made more than a +ear ago, 2ut also underscores the over%helming costs of #mericaJs longest %ar" 5hile the !nited States

taxpayers are expe ted to spend more than U11G "illion this year in Afghanistan for militar+ o'erations, 2ase securit+, reconstruction, foreign aid,
em2ass+ costs and veteransJ health care" 7hatJs more than dou2le the amount the Ee'artment of =omeland Securit+ s'ends 'er +ear to secure the nationJs 2orders, screen air travelers and hel' #mericans recover from natural disasters, among other services"

Afghanistan !ar spending is roughly six times the annual "udget of &ASA" #ll told, the %ar that 2egan in 1cto2er 2001 has cost ta;'a+ers more

than an estimated @443 2illion, according to the Congressional Research Service, and the lives of more than 1,.23 !"S" militar+ service mem2ers" 4olls sho% the !"S" 'u2lic has 2ecome increasingl+ %ar %ear+, leading mem2ers of 2oth 'arties -- including some Re'u2lican candidates for 'resident -- to 'ressure 12ama to e;'edite his #fghanistan 'lan and re'rioritiDe the %ar funds" 7he 'ace of !"S" %ithdra%al 'ro'osed 2+ 12ama Ksounds a little slo% and a little cautious, %hen +ou loo< at one out of ever+ si; Eefense Ee'artment dollars going in su''ort of %hat %eJre doing in #fghanistan,K former !tah governor and 314 'residential candidate Jon =untsman said toda+ on K3H#"K K8ine +ears and .0 da+s into this conflict, the mone+ that has 2een s'ent on 2oth conflicts, %ell over @1 trillion, I thin< %e have to sa+, J5hat have %e accom'lished in #fghanistan,JK he said" =untsman is not alone" 5hile ./ 'ercent of #mericans in the latest #BC 8e%s 'oll sa+ the %ar has contri2uted to long-term national securit+, far fe%er, 2. 'ercent, sa+ it has contri2uted Ka great deal,K %hich is the <ind of 'a+2ac< man+ %ant to see, given the %arJs stee' 'rice tag.

The Pentagon says all of its !ar#related osts since Se't" 11, 2001, in luding in $ra6+ have topped U1 trillion" #dd di'lomatic e;'enses and care for veterans and

total government s'ending reaches an estimated @1"3 trillion" In a Senate s'eech 7uesda+, freshman Eemocrat Joe Hanchin of 5est :irginia said it %as time to Kre2uild #merica, not #fghanistan,K and that 12ama should 'ursue significant troo' reduction immediatel+" 6arlier in the %ee<, mem2ers of the !"S" Conference of Ha+ors also urged Congress to end 2oth the #fghan and Ira? %ars and invest the mone+ instead on *o2s at home" Still,

!hile

("ama is expe ted to announ e a redu tion of .,000 to 10,000 troo's from #fghanistan 2+ the end of the +ear, and as man+ as 30,000 KsurgeK troo's ne;t +ear, the shift !onNt dramati ally redu e the "urden of !ar on Ameri aNs "udget, statistics sho%" 7he 4entagon estimates
sho% that ta;'a+ers could save @30 2illion in the first +ear of a dra%do%n" But the non'artisan Congressional Budget 1ffice 'ro*ects %ar

osts in "oth $ra6 and Afghanistan in the next de ade ould still top UFHJ "illion+ even if troop levels fall to 4.,000 from 00,000 2+ 201."

The plan uses 1% "illion

4o'ular Hechanics, 10-1-2000, S'ace-Based Solar 4o%er Beams Become 8e;t 6nerg+ $rontier, htt'())%%%"'o'ularmechanics"com)science)s'ace)423031. The idea of using satellites to "eam solar po!er do!n from spa e is nothing ne!--the Ee'artment of 6nerg+ first studied it in the 10/0s, and 8#S# too< another loo< in the J00s" 7he stum2ling 2loc< has 2een less the engineering challenge than the cost" # 4entagon re'ort released in 1cto2er could mean the stars are finall+ aligning for s'ace-2ased solar 'o%er, or SBS4" #ccording to the re'ort, SBS4 is 2ecoming more feasi2le, and eventuall+ could hel' head off crises such as climate change and %ars over diminishing energ+ su''lies" K7he challenge is one of 'erce'tion,K sa+s John Han<ins, 'resident of the S'ace 4o%er #ssociation and the leader of 8#S#Js mid-1000s SBS4 stud+" K7here are 'eo'le in senior leadershi' 'ositions %ho 2elieve ever+thing in s'ace has to cost trillions"K 7he ne% re'ort imagines a mar<et-2ased a''roach" 6ventuall+, SBS4 ma+ 2ecome enormousl+ 'rofita2le--and the 4entagon ho'es it %ill lure the gro%ing 'rivate s'ace industr+" 7he government %ould fund launches to 'lace initial arra+s in or2it

2+ 201C, %ith 'rivate firms ta<ing over o'erations from there" This plan ould limit government osts to a"out U1% "illion .

9. The e onomy is failing no!. Hartin Feldstein+ J#9H#9%11 4rofessor of 6conomics at =arvard, %as
Chairman of 4resident Ronald ReaganJs Council of 6conomic #dvisers and is former 4resident of the 8ational Bureau for 6conomic Research" 5hatBs =a''ening to the !S 6conom+,& htt'())%%%"'ro*ect-s+ndicate"org)commentar+)feldstein3/)6nglish The Ameri an e onomy has re ently slo!ed dramati ally+ and the 'ro2a2ilit+ of another economic do%nturn increases %ith each ne% round of data" This is a sharp hange from the e onomi situation at the end of last year O and represents a return to the very !ea, pa e of expansion sin e the re overy "egan in the summer of 9%%H. 6conomic gro%th in the !nited States during the first three ?uarters of 2010 %as not onl+ slo%, 2ut
%as also dominated 2+ inventor+ accumulation rather than sales to consumers or other forms of final sales" 7he last ?uarter of 2010 2rought a %elcome change, %ith consumer s'ending rising at a 4Q annual rate, enough to increase total real 3E4 2+ 3"1Q from the third ?uarter to the fourth" 7he econom+ seemed to have esca'ed its de'endence on inventor+ accumulation" 7his favora2le 'erformance led 'rivate forecasters and government officials to 'redict continued strong gro%th in 2011, %ith higher 'roduction, em'lo+ment, and incomes leading to further increases in consumer s'ending and a self-sustaining recover+" # one-+ear cut of the 'a+roll ta; rate 2+ t%o 'ercentage 'oints %as enacted in order to loc< in this favora2le outloo<" !nfortunatel+, the pro)e ted re overy in

onsumer spending didn*t o ur. 7he rise in food and energ+ 'rices out'aced the gain in nominal %ages, causing real average %ee<l+ earnings to decline in Januar+, %hile the continued fall in home 'rices reduced %ealth for the ma*orit+ of households" #s a result, real 'ersonal consumer e;'enditures rose at an annual rate of *ust a2out 1Q in Januar+, do%n from the 'revious ?uarterBs 4Q increase" 7hat 'attern of rising 'rices and declining real earnings re'eated itself in $e2ruar+ and Harch, %ith a shar' rise in the consumer 'rice inde; causing real average %ee<l+ earnings to decline at an annual rate of more than .Q" 8ot sur'risingl+, surve+ measures of consumer sentiment fell shar'l+ and consumer s'ending remained almost flat from month to month" The fall in house pri es pushed do!n sales of "oth ne! and existing homes. That+ in turn+ aused a dramati de line in the volume of housing starts and housing onstru tion" 7hat decline is li<el+ to continue, 2ecause nearl+ 30Q of homes %ith mortgages
are %orth less than the value of the mortgage" 7his creates a strong incentive to default, 2ecause mortgages in the !S are effectivel+ non-recourse loans( the creditor ma+ ta<e the 'ro'ert+ if the 2orro%er doesnBt 'a+, 2ut cannot ta<e other assets or a 'ortion of %age income" #s a result, 10Q of mortgages are no% in default or foreclosure, creating an overhang of 'ro'erties that %ill have to 2e sold at declining 'rices" 8usinesses have

responded negatively to the !ea,ness of household demand, %ith indices

maintained 2+ the Institute of Su''l+ Hanagement falling for 2oth manufacturing and service firms" #lthough large firms continue to have ver+ su2stantial cash on their 2alance sheets, their cash flo% from current o'erations fell in the first ?uarter" 7he most recent measure of orders for nondefense ca'ital goods signaled a decline in 2usiness investment" 7he 'attern of %ea<ness accelerated in #'ril and Ha+" 7he relativel+ ra'id rise in 'a+roll em'lo+ment that occurred in the first four months of the +ear came to a halt in Ha+, %hen onl+ .4,000 ne% *o2s %ere created, less than one-third of the average for em'lo+ment gro%th in the first four months" #s a result, the unem'lo+ment rate rose to 0"1Q of the la2or force" 7he 2ond mar<et and share 'rices have res'onded to all of this 2ad ne%s in a 'redicta2le fashion" The interest rate on 1%#year government "onds fell to ?@+

and the sto , mar,et de lined for six !ee,s in a ro!+ the longest 2earish stretch
since 2002, %ith a cumulative fall in share 'rices of more than CQ" 9o%er share 'rices %ill no% have negative effects on consumer s'ending and 2usiness investment" Honetar+ and fiscal 'olicies cannot 2e e;'ected to turn this situation around" 7he !S $ederal Reserve %ill maintain its 'olic+ of <ee'ing the overnight interest rate at near DeroN 2ut, given a fear of asset-'rice 2u22les, it %ill not reverse its decision to end its 'olic+ of 2u+ing 7reasur+ 2onds O so-called ?uantitative easing& O at the end of June" Horeover, fiscal 'olic+ %ill actuall+ 2e contractionar+ in the months ahead" 7he fiscal-stimulus 'rogram enacted in 2000 is coming to an end, %ith stimulus s'ending declining from @400 2illion in 2010 to onl+ @13/ 2illion this +ear" #nd negotiations are under %a+ to cut s'ending more and raise ta;es in order to reduce further the fiscal deficits 'ro*ected for 2011 and later +ears" So the

near#term outloo, for the US e onomy is !ea, at "est" $undamental 'olic+ changes
%ill 'ro2a2l+ have to %ait until after the 'residential and congressional elections in 8ovem2er 2012"

?. There*s no deal on the "udget and de"t eiling no!. The -ill J#9<#9%11 htt'())thehill"com)homene%s)senate)1CAC33-go'-senatordemocrats-failed-to-govern-on-2udget&

$reshman Sen" John BooDman FR-#r<"G on Honda+ %as the latest Re'u2lican to come to the floor and e;'ress frustration at Senate EemocratsJ lac< of a 2udget 'ro'osal for fiscal 2012" K This is failure to govern

at the most "asi level and the #merican 'eo'le deserve 2etter,K BooDman said" K5e need a 2udget
that 'uts us on the 'ath to fiscal disci'line"K K5e canBt even have an o'en de2ate in this cham2er a2out a 2udget,K BooDman argued" KInstead of voting to start the de2ate on 2udget measures, last month the ma*orit+ s?uashed all the 'ro'osals including the 'residentBs o%n 'lan"K The senator !as referring to a series of

failed votes that too, pla e in Eay on 'epu"li an and ;emo rati "udget plans that had almost no han e of rea hing the J%#vote hurdle re6uired for most legislation to pass the Senate. A version of President ("amaNs "udget plan+ for example+ !as defeated !ithout garnering a single vote. There is urrently no "udget#related legislation pending "efore the Senate+ and the upper ham"er is slated to ad)ourn Thursday or Friday for a !ee,long re ess.

F. &ASA spending is a drop in the "u ,et in the s ope of the "udget. Washington Post J#H#9%11/ htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)o'inions)fivem+ths-a2out-nasa)2011)0C)00)#3liJgt=Mstor+"html& At the height of the Apollo program+ &ASA onsumed more than F per ent of the federal "udget" In the 10C0s, that %as a lot of mone+" Today+ it*s a rounding error. &ASA*s "udget for fis al year 9%11 is roughly U1G.5 "illion D %.5 per ent of a U?.< trillion federal "udget. $n 9%1%+ Ameri ans spent a"out as mu h on pet food. #nd those %ho com'lain that it is a %aste to s'end mone+ in s'ace forget that &ASA reates )o"s" #ccording to the agenc+, it employs roughly 1H+%%% ivil servants and F%+%%% ontra tors in and around its 1% enters" In the San $rancisco
area alone, the agenc+ sa+s it created .,300 *o2s and @A// million %orth of economic activit+ in 2000" 1hio, a state hard-hit 2+ the 3reat Recession that is home to 8#S#Bs 4lum Broo< Research Station and 3lenn Research Center, canBt afford to lose nearl+ /,000 *o2s threatened 2+ 8#S# cuts" 6ven more 'eo'le have s'ace-related *o2s outside the agenc+" #ccording to the Colorado S'ace Coalition, for e;am'le, more than 1C3,000 Coloradans %or< in the s'ace industr+" 7hough some 2uild roc<ets for 8#S#, none sho% u' in the agenc+Bs *o2 data

5. Case solves the impa tD energy independen e solves the glo"al e onomy that*s Way J. Won*t stop spending no! SATT0'F$01; 4-2A-9%11 7err+ Satterfield, 4oliticians canJt cut s'ending&,
htt'())%%%"marionstar"com)article)B$)2011042A)14I8I1802)1042A034A)4oliticianscan-t-cut-s'ending,od+sse+-nav_head&
In the 1Ath centur+, as democratic ideals %ere ta<ing hold 2oth on this content and in 6uro'e, it %as o2served that

demo ra y an exist only until its iti7ens dis over that they an vote themselves a ess to the pu"li treasury . 5hile %e donJt <no% for certain %ho originall+ made this o2servation, he or she might have added a 'arallel( When politi ians dis over that they an "uy votes through un ontrolled spending+ e onomi ollapse is assured. Recentl+, %e %ere told that Congress and the 'resident had agreed to Kthe largest s'ending cut in
a

#merican histor+"K 7he realit+, ho%ever, is that the agreement did ver+ little" #s re'orted 2+ several financial ne%s sources, a large 'ortion of %hat is 2eing called KcutsK %as merel+ creative 2udget mani'ulation" F$or e;am'le, uns'ent mone+ from the 2010 census %as included as a KcutK even though, given that the 2010 census is no% com'lete, that mone+ %ould not have 2een s'ent an+%a+"G Eavid 5+ss, chief economist at Standard I 4oorJs in 8e% Ror<, stated that the KcutsK amount to Kno more than a rounding error in this +earJs deficit"K Eavid Stoc<ham, Eirector of the 1ffice of Hanagement and Budget during the Reagan administration, after o2serving this latest round of 'olitical shenanigans, referred to Congressional committees res'onsi2le for 2udget a''ro'riations as

as !e head to!ard 9%19+ !e !ill "e inundated !ith politi al ads pro laiming a ne! era of fis al res'onsi2ilit+" Re'u2licans %ill tell us that the+
Kcess'ools of deceit"K Tet+

engineered this Klargest s'ending cut,K and democrats, of course, %ill claim to have a master 'lan that %ill 2oth cut

!e !ill "e lied to "y "oth sides. The reality is far too frightening for any areer politi ian to a ,no!ledge. (ur nation "orro!s UJ "illion per day " In 2010, government s'ending on
s'ending and increase governmentJs a2ilit+ to meet our ever+ need" In short, entitlement 'rograms alone e;ceeded total ta; revenue" 7oda+, one in si; #mericans receives mone+ directl+ from the treasur+. 0very on eiva"le !ant and need of the masses is assumed to "e

governmentNs responsi"ility. And+ in the pursuit of votes+ politi ians have "een only too !illing to ta,e it all on. 1f course, %e canJt 'lace the 2lame entirel+ on
Congress" 4olls consistentl+ sho% that %hile #mericans are for Ks'ending cutsK generall+, the+ are un%illing to target s'ecific 'rograms" So even %hile %e recogniDe that our government is out of control, %e are un%illing to curtail our o%n access to its treasur+" 7he 'resident, of course, es'ouses increased ta;es as the ans%er to our 'ro2lems" !nfortunatel+, Congress has 'roven over and over that it cannot control itself %hen 'resented %ith increased ta; revenue" # %idel+ 'u2liciDed stud+ com'leted 2+ economists at 1hio !niversit+ sho%ed that, since the 1040s, for ever+ dollar 5ashington received due to a ta; increase, it increased s'ending 2+ @1"24" Ha<e no mista<eN this Congress -- Eemocrats and Re'u2licans ali<e -- %ill do e;actl+ the same %ith an+ ne% ta; revenue"

Career politi ians annot and !ill not urtail spending. Funding government programs is the means "y !hi h they "uy votes in order to remain in po!er" 8e;t +ear, as 'olitical ads sho%ing ever+thing from hungr+ children to need+ seniors flo% across our 7: screens, it %onJt ta<e a 4R genius to recogniDe that 'ro'osing s'ecific, meaningful uts is simply not an option. So, %e must endure another round of o;+moronic cam'aign s'eeches FKI %ant to
reign in the deficit and increase funding for educationYKG and nonsensical attac<s FKH+ o''onent doesnJt care a2out the deficit and she cut 'rograms for our senior citiDensYKG"

<. &ASA spending lots no! O the end of the shuttle mission frees up money and reates ne! "udget flexi"ilityO the plan !ill "e reallo ation of funds. The 0 onomist J#?%#9%11 7he s'ace shuttle Into the sunset 7he final
launch of the s'ace shuttle 2rings to an end the dreams of the #'ollo era&, htt'())%%%"economist"com)node)1AA0.01A& So, although the shuttle>%hich has 2een the icon of #mericaBs s'ace effort for a generation> !ill "e missed+ harder heads !ill "e glad to see the de ,s leared " 9ast +ear Barac<
12ama outlined his 'lans for the future of #mericaBs s'ace 'rogramme" Its most stri<ing feature is to delegate the humdrum tas< of ferr+ing 'eo'le and e?ui'ment to lo%-6arth or2it to the 'rivate sector" Roc<etr+ is a mature technolog+, and 8#S# has al%a+s relied on using contractors to 2uild its roc<ets and s'acecraft" In future, 'rivate firms %ill run the missions as %ell" 9ater this +ear t%o s'acecraft, one %hich has 2een designed 2+ 1r2ital Sciences, a :irginia-2ased firm, and another 2+ S'aceZ, a Californian com'an+ run 2+ 6lon Hus<, an internet entre'reneur, %ill ma<e cargo runs to the ISS" 7he ho'e is that such craft %ill soon 2e a2le to carr+ humans too, and at a far lo%er cost than 8#S#Bs efforts" 9i2erated from the 2urden of having to service the ISS F%hich Hr 12ama %ants to <ee' until 2020, si; +ears longer than originall+ 'lannedG,

&ASA !ill "e free to

In 2010, %hen Hr 12ama outlined his ideas, he s'o<e, some%hat vaguel+, of a manned tri' to a near-6arth asteroid, to 2e follo%ed at some uns'ecified date in the 2030s 2+ the ultimate s'ace-cadet dream>a manned mission to Hars" To that end+ &ASA !ill spend "illions

on entrate on loftier goals.

of dollars developing ne! engines+ propellants+ life#support systems and the li,e. 6ven the shuttle %ill live on, in some sense, since the S'ace 9aunch S+stem>the unromantic name of
the 2eef+ roc<et needed to loft astronauts and cargoes into high or2its or farther into the solar s+stem>%ill 2e 2uilt 'artl+ from rec+cled shuttle 'arts in an effort to save mone+ and use familiar technolog+" And spending

!ill "e managed through fixed#pri e ontra ts instead of the . ost#plus/ deals that helped to inflate the pri e of the shuttle.

9AC AT: (il ;A

9AC AT: Asteroids ;A

9AC AT: Aliens ;A

1. 0arthli,e onditions are rareD intelligent life forms pro"a"ly don*t exist Ian Cra!ford, 4rofessor of #stronom+ and 4h+sics at !niversit+ College in 9ondon, Jul+ 20%%, 5here #re 7he+, Ha+2e 5e #re #lone In the 3ala;+ #fter #ll,&
Scientific #merican, :olume 2A3, Issue 1, '" 3A-43G
7o m+ mind, the histor+ of life on 6arth suggests a more convincing e;'lanation" 9iving things have e;isted here

For more than three "illion years+ 0arth !as inha"ited solely "y single# elled mi roorganisms. This time lag seems to imply that the evolution of anything more ompli ated than a single ell is unli,ely " 7hus, the transition to multi elled animals might o ur on only a tiny fra tion of the millions of planets that are inha"ited "y single# elled organisms" It could 2e argued that the long
almost from the 2eginning, 2ut multicellular animal life did not a''ear until a2out /00 million +ears ago" solitude of the 2acteria %as sim'l+ a necessar+ 'recursor to the eventual a''earance of animal life on 6arth" 4erha's it too< this long>and %ill ta<e a com'ara2le length of time on other inha2ited 'lanets>for 2acterial 'hotos+nthesis to 'roduce the ?uantities of atmos'heric o;+gen re?uired 2+ more com'le; forms of life"

8ut even if multi elled life#forms do eventually arise on all life "earing planets+ it still does not follo! that these !ill inevita"ly lead to intelligent reatures+ still less to te hnologi al ivili7ations" #s 'ointed out 2+ Ste'hen Ja+ 3ould in his 2oo< 5onderful 9ife, the evolution of intelligent life depends on a host of essentially random environmental influen es. This ontingen y is illustrated most learly "y the fate of the dinosaurs. They dominated this planet for 1F% million years yet never developed a te hnologi al ivili7ation" 5ithout their e;tinction, the result of a chance event, evolutionar+ histor+ %ould have 2een ver+ different" The evolution of intelligent life on 0arth has rested on a large num"er of han e events+ at least some of !hi h had a very lo! pro"a"ility" In 10A3 'h+sicist Brandon Carter concluded that . ivili7ations ompara"le !ith our o!n are li,ely to "e ex eedingly rare+ even if lo ations as favora"le as our o!n are of ommon o urren e in the galaxy"&

9. The losest galaxy is over t!o million miles a!ay Rich ;eem, Researcher and S'ecialist at Cedars-Sinai Hedical Center A)2.)200J,
!$1Js and 6;traterrestrial #liens( 5h+ 6arth =as 8ever Been :isited,& htt'())%%%"godandscience"org)a'ologetics)ufo"html =ave %e 2een visited 2+ e;traterrestrial 2eings from else%here in the universe, $irst, $ !ould li,e to eliminate the idea that !e have "een visited "y "eings lo ated outside our o!n galaxy. Andromeda+ the nearest galaxy to the Eil,y Way is 9 million light years distant" 7his means that if there !ere aliens in Andromeda+ it !ould ta,e them longer than 9 million years to ome to earth"1 #nother 'ro2lem is %h+ the+ %ould %ant to visit our gala;+" The Andromeda galaxy is onsidera"ly larger than our galaxy. $f life !ere ommon in the universe + there should "e many times more of it in Andromeda+ than in our !impy galaxy. Why !ould they even !ant to visit usM A third pro"lem for potential aliens is dete ting us. We have "een sending radio !aves for less than 1%% years. $t !ill "e another 9 million years "efore those signals rea h our losest neigh"oring galaxy. The light 3and other ele tromagneti signals4 that they no! see represent the !ay the earth loo,ed 9 million years ago. 8eings in other galaxies

!ould have no !ay of ,no!ing that advan ed life forms existed in our galaxy.

?. 0ven past Area 51 employees say there*s no aliens 6ri< 1a itis, Seattle 7imes staff re'orter, 3)2/)201%, #rea .1 vets 2rea<
silence( Sorr+, 2ut no s'ace aliens or !$1s, htt'())seattletimes"n%source"com)html)localne%s)20114C101.Marea.1vets2Am"html The se rets+ some of them+ have "een de lassified. &o e+ <9+ and his fello! Area 51 veterans around the ountry no! are free to tal, a"out doing ontra t !or, for the C$A in the 1HJ%s and N<%s at the arid+ isolated Southern &evada government testing site. Their stories shed some light on a site shrouded in mysteryA classified 'ro*ects still are going on there" ItJs not a 2ig lea' from
%arding off the curious 40 or .0 +ears ago, to %arding off the curious %ho no% ma<e the drive to #rea .1" 7he veteransJ stories 'rovide a glim'se of real-life government covert o'erations, %ith their ever+da+ routines and moments of e;citement" 8oce didnJt see< out 'u2licit+" But %hen contacted, he %as glad to tell %hat it %as li<e" KI %as s%orn to secrec+ for 4/ +ears" I couldnJt tal< a2out it,K he sa+s" In the 10C0s, #rea .1 %as the test site for the #-12 and its successor, the SR-/1 Blac<2ird, a secret s'+ 'lane that 2ro<e records at documented s'eeds that still have 2een unmatched" 7he CI# sa+s it reached Hach 3"20 Fa2out 2,200 m'hG at 00,000 feet" But after Se'tem2er 200/, %hen the CI# dis'la+ed an #-12 in front of its 9angle+, :a", head?uarters as 'art of the agenc+Js C0th 2irthda+, much of the secrec+ of those da+s at #rea .1 fell a%a+" Advan e !arning to UF(logists:

Sorry+ although &o e and other Area 51 vets say they sa! plenty of se ret stuff+ none ma<e claims a2out aliens.

F. The han e of en ountering aliens is little to none Carl Sagan+ + B"#", B"S", and 4hE !niversit+ of Chicago, former 'rofessor of
2iolog+ and genetics at Stanford and 'rofessor of astronom+ and astro'h+sics at =arvard, former Eirector of the 9a2orator+ for 4lanetar+ Studies at Cornell, 10HF+ 4ale Blue Eot, '" 3AA-3A0 Should optimisti estimates prevail and one in every million stars shelters a near"y te hnologi al ivili7ation, and if as %ell the+Bre randoml+ stre%n through the Hil<+ 5a+ %ere these 'rovisos to hold>then the nearest one+ !e re all+ !ould "e a fe! hundred lightDyears distant( at the closest, ma+2e 100 light>+ears, more li<el+ a thousand light+ears>and, of course, 'erha's no%here, no matter ho% far" Su''ose the nearest civiliDation on a 'lanet of another star is, sa+, 200 light-+ears a%a+ 7hen,

some 15% years from no! they*ll "egin to re eive our fee"le postDWorld War $$ television and radar emission" 5hat %ill the+ ma<e of
it, 5ith each 'assing +ear the signal %ill get louder, more interesting, 'erha's more alarming" 6ventuall+, the+ ma+ res'ond( 2+ returning a radio message, or 2+ visiting" In either case,

the response !ill li,ely "e limited "y the finite value of the speed of light " 5ith these %ildl+ uncertain num2ers, the ans!er to our unintentional mid entury all into the depths of spa e !ill not arrive until around the year 9?5%" If the+Bre farther a%a+, of course, it %ill ta<e

longerN and if much farther a%a+, much longer" 7he interesting 'ossi2ilit+ arises that our first recei't of a message from an alien civiliDation, a message intended for us Fnot *ust an all-'oints 2ulletinG, %ill occur in a time %hen %e are %ell situated on man+ %orlds in our solar s+stem and 're'aring to move on"

5. The aliens !ould "e friendly :4 Hichael Shermer, columnist for the Scientific #merican, .)10)20 11, 7he H+th of
6vil #liens,& htt'())%%%"scientificamerican"com)article"cfm,id-the-m+th-of-evilaliens 5ith the #llen 7elesco'e #rra+ run 2+ the S67I Institute in northern California, the time is oming !hen !e !ill en ounter an extraterrestrial intelligen e 30T$4. Contact %ill 'ro2a2l+

come sooner rather than later 2ecause of HooreBs 9a% F'ro'osed 2+ IntelBs co-founder 3ordon 6" HooreG, %hich 'osits a dou2ling of com'uting 'o%er ever+ one to t%o +ears" It turns out that this e;'onential gro%th curve a''lies to most technologies, including the search for 67I FS67IG( according to astronomer and S67I founder $ran< Era<e, our searches toda+ are 100 trillion times more 'o%erful than .0 +ears ago, %ith no end to the im'rovements in

$f 0.T. is out there+ !e !ill ma,e onta t. What !ill happen !hen !e do+ and ho! should !e respondM Such ?uestions, once the 'rovince of science fiction, are no%
sight" 2eing seriousl+ considered in the oldest and one of the most 'restigious scientific *ournals in the %orld> 4hiloso'hical 7ransactions of the Ro+al Societ+ #>%hich devoted 1/ scholarl+ articles to 7he Eetection of 6;tra7errestrial 9ife and the Conse?uences for Science and Societ+& in its $e2ruar+ issue" The myth+ for e;am'le,

that so iety !ill ollapse into fear or "rea, out in pandemonium>or that scientists and 'oliticians %ill engage in a cons'iratorial cover-u'> is "elied "y numerous responses. 7%o such e;am'les %ere %itnessed in Eecem2er 2010, %hen 8#S# held a ver+ 'u2lic 'ress
conference to announce a 'ossi2le ne% life-form 2ased on arsenic, and in 100C, %hen scientists 'roclaimed that a Hartian roc< contained fossil evidence of ancient life on the Red 4lanet and 4resident Bill Clinton made a statement on the to'ic" 8udget#hungry spa e agen ies su h as &ASA and private fund#

raising organi7ations su h as the S0T$ $nstitute !ill shout to the high heavens a"out anything extraterrestrial they find+ from mi ro"es to Eartians. 8ut should !e shout "a , to the aliensM $ am s,epti al " #lthough %e
can onl+ re'resent the su2*ect of an 8 of 1 trial, and our s'ecies does have an unenvia2le trac< record of first contact 2et%een civiliDations, the data trends for the 'ast half millennium are encouraging( olonialism

is dead+ slavery is dying+ the per entage of populations that perish in !ars has de reased+ rime and violen e are do!n+ ivil li"erties are up+ and+ as !e are !itnessing in 0gypt and other Ara" ountries+ the desire for representative demo ra ies is spreading+ along !ith edu ation+ s ien e and te hnology. These trends have made our ivili7ation more in lusive and less exploitative" If %e e;tra'olate that .00-+ear trend out for .,000 or .00,000 +ears, %e get a sense of %hat an 67I might 2e li<e. $n fa t+ any ivili7ation apa"le of extensive spa e travel !ill have moved far "eyond exploitative olonialism and unsustaina"le energy sour es" 6nslaving the natives and harvesting their resources ma+ 2e
'rofita2le in the short term for terrestrial civiliDations, 2ut such a strateg+ %ould 2e unsustaina2le for the tens of thousands of +ears needed for interstellar s'ace travel" In this sense, thin<ing a2out e;traterrestrial civiliDations forces us to consider the nature and 'rogress of our terrestrial civiliDation and offers ho'e that, %hen %e do ma<e contact, it %ill mean that at least one other intelligence managed to reach the level %here harnessing ne% technologies dis'laces controlling fello% 2eings and %here e;'loring s'ace trum's con?uering land" #d astraY`

9AC AT: &ASA Tradeoff ;A

RRRAT: C(U&T0'P1A&S

9AC AT: 0SA CP

1. Perm do "othD 0SA an*t do the plan aloneD"udget free7e Eoug Eessier, C-0-9%1%, 6S# 3ra''les %ith 7ight BudgetsN E9R 6sca'es
3erman Budget Cuts&, htt'())%%%"atlasaeros'ace"net)eng)ne%si-r"htm, id-4/C2I'rintversion-1 S'aceflight 8o% re'orts that 6S# is going through some 2elt tightening as it deals %ith the glo2al recession( The 0uropean Spa e Agen y*s spending free7e is not delaying missions yet+ "ut all options !ill "e on the ta"le as the ash#strapped agen y prepares for even tighter "udgets in 9%11 and 9%19, the organiDationBs to' financial
official said" 9ud%ig Lronthaler, 6S#Bs director of resources management, said the s'ace agenc+ should have enough mone+ to avoid a moratorium on contract signings this +ear" But more

serious onse6uen es may "e in store for the next t!o years. $or 2010, I donBt see a huge 'ro2lem in the 2udget,& Lronthaler said" 8ut it*s lear !e have to prepare ourselves that 9%11 and 9%19 might "e tighter./ 6S# is freeDing s'ending for 2010 and 2011 at last +earBs level of 3"3. 2illion
euros, or @4 2illion" 7he s'ace agenc+Bs 2udget remains higher, 2ut 6S#Bs e;'enditures %ill 2e stretched out through contract modifications"

9. ;oesn*t solve either advantageD US a tion ,ey ?. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves F. Satellite funding "lo ,ed due to internal onfli ts 4eter B" de Selding, 3-.-9%1%, Controvers+ Eee'ens 1ver 6uro'ean 5eather
Satellite Contract&, htt'())%%%"s'acene%s"com)satelliteMtelecom)10030.-meosatcontract-issue-remains-unsettled"html EU&$C-+ Germany D German government offi ials are "laming their o!n ta ti al error during negotiations !ith Fran e for the ontroversy that has "lo ,ed approval of 0urope*s U1.< "illion next#generation !eather satellite program sin e the "eginning of the year and no! threatens to ause lasting damage to the 1G#nation 0uropean Spa e Agen y 30SAG, 3erman
government and industr+ officials said"

5. Perm do the CP J. &o neg fiatD no .should not/ in the re7+ CPs are infinitely regressive+ and many heat <. Strong 0U rushes US -egemony 3erard 8a,er, associate editor of the $inancial 7imes, 0-22- %?,7he 5ee<l+
Standard, '" 11
#ll right, sa+ the non-%orriers, 2ut so %hat,

0ven if a ne! 0.U. ta,es the Fran o#German

tilt+ does it really matterM

6ver+one <no%s, than<s to Ro2ert LaganJs anal+sis, that 6uro'eans are ideologicall+ committed to %ea<-<need multilateralism, that the+ are not reall+ interested in e;ercising 'o%er" 5hat 'ossi2le effect could a !nited 6uro'e have on #mericaJs a2ilit+ to e;ecute its intentions, #s one conservative 'uts it, K5h+ get u'set a2out 10,000 :anessa Redgraves marching through 4aris,K 7his K6uro'e as soft multilateralistsK argument is onl+ half right.

The 0.U.Ns in reasingly urgent efforts to turn itself into a single state expose a fundamental de eption in the 0uropean

pro)e t" 7he 6uro'eans are not multilateralists at home" 1n the contrar++ they !ant to turn 0urope from an intergovernmental institution into a single nation##!ith real po!er" ItJs true that even the $rench have no grand design to ta<e on the !nited States in some ne% su'er'o%er struggle" But this misses the 'oint" The ,ind of multilateralism they do "elieve in is the one that uses institutions to hold Ameri an po!er in he ,. Thin, of the 0.U. not as a Superpo!er "ut as a ,ind of Sniperpo!er+ onstantly pi ,ing off parts of U.S. foreign poli y o")e tives around the !orld. $t made life diffi ult enough over the $ra6 !arA it ould ma,e life in post# Saddam $ra6 mu h harder for the United States" It could cause 'lent+ of mischief in all
corners of the glo2e" Imagine a united 6uro'e aggressivel+ 'ursuing a single line against the !nited States in the councils of 8#71" 1r thro%ing its siDa2le economic %eight around in 9atin #merica or #frica" #nd one other longstanding goal of !"S" 'olic+ could also ma<e 6uro'ean a%<%ardness more of a constraint for #merica" It has long 2een an a;iom of !"S" 'olic+ that 6uro'e should develo' militar+ ca'a2ilities of its o%n--genuine ones that %ould ena2le 6uro'e to fight hot %ars in difficult 'laces and ta<e some of the 2urden off the #mericans" 7his too has al%a+s 2een du2ious 'olic+. $f a united 0urope really does develop enhan ed

apa"ilities+ it is in on eiva"le that it !ill not demand a "igger say in the de ision#ma,ing in ne! international rises.

G. Agent CPs are a voterD steals aff ground+ unrealisti omparison+ and eliminates fo us on resolution

9AC AT: 'FSA CP

1. Perm do "oth 9. 'ussian spa e "udget an*t afford ne! pro)e ts O Capa"ilities are em"arassing Tha,ur 9%11 F4)13)11, Sofia, Russian s'ace 2udget Junam2itiousJ, sa+s s'ace
agenc+ chief& htt'())eandt"theiet"org)ne%s)2011)a'r)russian-s'ace"cfm, S#G Russian s'ace agenc+ 'os,osmos annot afford to finan e ground"rea,ing pro)e ts and ould "e overta,en "y China, sa+s its chief" Ros<omos head #natol+ 4erminov %arned that the agen y does not urrently have a large enough "udget and !ould "e at a disadvantage in the mar,etpla e" K7he finance ministr+Js 'olic+ doesnJt allo% us to com'lete 'ro*ects aimed at %inning the foreign mar<et,K 4erminov said" :eteran osmonauts have also omplained of stagnation at the agenc+ that 2eat the !nited States into s'ace %ith Ruri 3agarinJs first manned s'ace flight .0 +ears ago" 'ussia has "udgeted 200 2illion rou2les 3U< "illionG for s'ace 'rogrammes in 2010-2011, ma,ing it the fourth largest spender after !S s'ace agenc+ &ASA at @1A"/ 2illion, the 0uro'ean S'ace Agenc+ and Fran e+ 4rime Hinister :ladimir 4utin said" Further s'ace 2oundaries including manned flights to Hars ould still "e ta ,led 2+ Russia, 4erminov said - "ut only after 9%?5. >$t !ould "e a"surd to fly on the ro ,ets !e have no!+> he said, adding that a flight to Hars using toda+Js technolog+ %ould ta<e a
+ear and a half" Rumours of 4erminovJs imminent sac<ing %ith have also marred official cele2rations of 3agarinJs 'ioneering flight and dra%n attention to a string of em2arrassing set2ac<s in recent months"

T!o high# ran,ing spa e offi ials !ere fired after three high-tech G1(&ASS navigation satellites rashed into the Pa ifi 1cean after a failed laun h in Eecem2er" 6;'erts said 'ussia had negle ted investment in spa e resear h and !as ontent to sell seats on its Soviet-designed Soyu7 s'acecraft to foreign astronauts" Ros<osmos %ill receive @/.3

million for ferr+ing 12 !S astronauts to the s'ace station during 2014-201C, and has earned some @2". 2illion from 8#S# and 'artner agencies for 42 seats on So+uD craft since 200/" 4utin res'onded that Russia should ta<e 'ride in handling over 40 'er cent of glo2al s'ace launches 2ut must not 2e confined to the role of a Kferr+manK"

That spills over to doom spe ifi programs 'ussian Federal Spa e Agen y+ &o ;ate, Russian $ederal S'ace
#genc+&" Fhtt'())russian-federal-s'ace-agenc+"co"tv)G ;ue to $nternational spa e station involvements+ up to 5%@ of 'ussiaNs spa e "udget is spent on the manned spa e program. Some o2servers have 'ointed out that this has a detrimental effe t on other aspe ts of spa e exploration ,

and that the other s'ace 'o%ers s'end much lesser 'ro'ortions of their overall 2udgets on maintaining human 'resence in or2it"U.V 7he Russian s'ace 'rogram 2enefits from a considera2le amount of investments made during the Soviet era, including technolog+ and launch sites" 7he launch sites are located mostl+ in the countr+ of LaDa<hstan and are maintained and utiliDed in coo'eration %ith the government of LaDa<hstan" 7he RL# has centraliDed control of RussiaJs civilian s'ace 'rogram, including all manned and unmanned non-militar+ s'ace

;espite the onsidera"ly improved "udget, attention of legislative and e;ecute the 'ussian spa e program ontinues to fa e several pro"lems"UCV Wages in the spa e industry are lo!A the average age of employees is high F4C +ears in 200/G,UCV and mu h of the e6uipment is o"solete"U/V 1n the 'ositive side, man+ com'anies in the sector have 2een a2le to
flights" authorities, 'ositive media coverage and 2road su''ort among the 'o'ulation, 'rofit from contracts and 'artnershi's %ith foreign com'aniesN several ne% s+stems such as ne% roc<et u''er stages have 2een develo'ed in recent +earsN investments have 2een made to 'roduction lines, and com'anies have started to 'a+ more attention to educating a ne% generation of engineers and technicians"U2VU/V

?. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves F. ;oesn*t solve either advantageD US a tion ,ey 5. Perm do the CP J. &o neg fiatD no .should not/ in the re7+ CPs are infinitely regressive+ and many heat <. &o 'ussian apa"ilities O Satellite laun h failures prove that using old modified $C8 E ro ,ets )ust isn*t good enough SPAC0. om 9%11 F2)1)11, Russia 9oses 8e% Hilitar+ Satellite in S'ace,
Re'orts Sa+& htt'())%%%"s'ace"com)10/3A-russia-loses-militar+-satellite-s'acere'orts"html, S#G 'ussia has re'ortedl+ lost onta t !ith its ne!est military satellite )ust hours after laun hing it into spa e toda+ F$e2" 1G, according to Russian re'orts" 7he satellite, called 3eoIL-2, 2lasted off ato' a three-stage Roc<ot 2ooster from RussiaJs northern 4lesets< Cosmodrome at a2out . '"m" Hosco% 7ime F0 a"m" 6S7, 1400 3H7G" But

)ust t!o hours after liftoff+ the satellite !ent missing, according to RussiaJs Itar-7ass and Interfa; ne%s agencies" K7here is no contact %ith the satellite,K RussiaJs Interfa;-#:8 ne%s service ?uoted an unnamed Russian s'ace industr+ source as sa+ing" But the satellite did not enter the proper or"it+ %ith some Russian re'orts suggesting its current flight 'ath 2rings it as lo% as 20. miles F330 <mG a2ove the ground, #$4 re'orted" The satellite laun h failure omes )ust five !ee,s after Russian 4resident Emitr+ Eedvedev fired t!o top#ran,ing spa e offi ials and re'rimanded #natol+ 4erminov, chief of RussiaJs $ederal S'ace #genc+, follo!ing the "ot hed laun h of a Proton ro ,et arrying three ne! navigation satellites" In the Eec" . launch failure, the 4roton roc<etJs Bloc< EH-3 u''er stage %as loaded
%ith too much fuel" 7he 2asic miscalculation sent the 4roton roc<et off course" 7he ne% 3lonass-H navigation satellites on2oard that roc<et crashed into the 4acific 1cean north of =a%aii" 7oda+Js launch failure, ho%ever, occurred on a different t+'e of roc<et"

stages to''ed %ith a BreeDe-LH u''er stage used to send satellite 'a+loads into their final or2its" #ccording to

The 'o ,ot "ooster design is "ased on omponents "uilt for 'ussiaNs SS-1C intercontinental "allisti missiles" It has t%o core

'ussiaNs ;efense Einistry is forming a ommission to investigate toda+Js laun h failure" RussiaJs $ederal S'ace #genc+ %ill form 'art of that commission, the ne%s agenc+
Interfa;, stated"

G. Agent CPs are a voterD steals aff ground+ unrealisti omparison+ and eliminates fo us on resolution

9AC AT: Privati7ation CP

1. Perm do "oth 9. Privati7ation empiri ally fails Latherine 8utler, leader %riter at greeno'ia"com and at H88, 3-A- 9%1%, 7he
4ros and Cons of CommercialiDing S'ace 7ravel&, htt'())%%%"mnn"com)greentech)research-innovations)stories)the-'ros-and-cons-of-commercialiDing-s'acetravel& $urther, ;inerman points out that private efforts into spa e have failed again and again. -e refers to do7ens of private start#ups that never got off the ground+ let alone into spa e" Einerman 'oints to 1o ,heed EartinNs S#?? design+ !hi h !as supposed to repla e the s'ace shuttle in 1HHJ. The design never su eeded and ultimately ost the government UH19 million and 1o ,heed Eartin U?5< million. #maDon"com Chief 6;ecutive Jeff BeDosB com'an+ 8lue (rigin set up the ;C#S program in the early 1HH%s. $ts su"or"ital test vehi le !as initially su essful "ut !as destroyed in a landing a ident. Einerman claims, 7he Clinton
administration sa% the EC-Z as a Reagan)Bush legac+ 'rogram, and %as ha''+ to cancel it after the accident"&

?. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves F. ;oesn*t solve either advantageD US a tion ,ey D and privati7ation hurts innovation and leadership Wu, chairman of the =ouse Science and 7echnolog+ Su2committee on 7echnolog+ and Innovation, 4-1.-9%1%, Ee2ate( 12amaJs S'ace 4rivatiDation 4lan Is a Costl+
Hista<e&, htt'())%%%"aolne%s"com)2010)04)1.)de2ate-o2amas-s'ace-'rivatiDation'lan-is-a-costl+-mista<e)& The Constellation program is not perfe t. 8ut putting all of our eggs in a private#se tor "as,et is simply too ris,y a gam"le" If the 'residentJs 'lan is im'lemented, !e !ould "e )eopardi7ing our nationNs lead in spa e exploration , and %e %ould 2e *eo'ardiDing our childrenJs future" The spa e program encourages us to reach for the stars in 2oth our dreams and our actions" It helps drive innovation+ and it hallenges us to find reative solutions to te hnologi al hallenges" Horeover, it inspires Ameri aNs next generation of s ientists and engineers to pursue their passions ## something !e must have if our nation is to ompete in the 91st entury glo"al e onomy. The presidentNs plan to privati7e our spa eflight program !ill hinder our nationNs a"ility to remain at the forefront of human a hievement for generations to ome" 5e must reconsider"

5. Perm do the CP J. &o neg fiatD no .should not/ in the re7+ CPs are infinitely regressive+ and many heat <. (nly government an develop S8SP O too ris,y for private a tors Jose'h 'ouge, #cting Eirector of the 8ational Securit+ S'ace 1ffice, 10-10- 9%%<,
4hase 0 #rchitecture $easi2ilit+ Stud+,& EoE, htt'())%%%"nss"org)settlement)ss')li2rar+)final-s2s'-interim-assessment-release01"'df $I8EI83( 7he SBS4 Stud+ 3rou' found that ade6uate apital exists in the 'rivate sector to finance construction, ho!ever private apital is unli,ely to develop this on ept !ithout government assistan e "e ause the timeframe of re!ard and degree of ris, are outside the !indo! of normal private se tor investment. Capital in the energ+ and other sectors is availa2le on the level needed for such a large 'ro*ect, 2ut ca'ital flo!s under fairly onservative riteria+ and S8SP has not yet experien ed a suita"le demonstration+ nor have the ris,s "een ade6uately hara teri7ed to ma,e informed "usiness plan de isions.

G. Private se tor fails O not experien ed in spa e development John E Go!an, %or<ed at 8#S# #mes Research Center as a contractor and is active in the Hars Societ+, C-A-9%%H, Can the 'rivate sector ma<e a 2rea<through
in s'ace access,&, htt'())%%%"thes'acerevie%"com)article)13AA)1& 1ne might sensi2l+ as< %here the %or<ing 'rotot+'es come from todayM With the sharp in rease in government support for resear h and development during and follo%ing 5orld 5ar II, the nominal private se tor has fre6uently "een a"le to rely on the government for the development of !or,ing prototypes of ne! te hnologies. $ndeed+ Sili on 2alley+ often ited as a shining example of free mar,et apitalism+ in 'art gre! out of government spy satellite programs at Hoffett $ield" Similarl+, the $nternet and the World Wide We" !ere developed to the advan ed prototype stage>reall+ a %or<ing s+stem>entirely !ith government funding 2+ E#R4#, 8S$, C6R8, and several other government agencies" # range of favora"le legislation su h as the 8ayh#;ole A t have made it easy for private "usinesses to li ense the fruits of government resear h and development programs on e;cellent terms" 5hat this means is that private/ high te hnology investors and entrepreneurs such as 6lon Hus< and Jeff BeDos often have negligi"le experien e !ith the resear h and development of ore te hnologies ompara"le to ro ,et engines. 7his differs from iconic historical inventors li<e James 5att and the 5right Brothers" $nstitutional investors su h as venture apital funds also have little experien e evaluating+ funding or managing the sort of resear h and development of ore te hnologies that is pro"a"ly re6uired to a hieve heap a ess to spa e.

9AC AT: Spending &8

Perm do "othD that solves their "udget arguments O in entivi7ing private development saves &ASA resour es for the plan. 7homas 8rannen, J"E" Candidate, Southern Hethodist !niversit+ Eedman School of 9a%, Summer 9%1%, 4rivate Commercial S'ace 7rans'ortationBs Ee'endence
on S'ace 7ourism and 8#S#Bs Res'onsi2ilit+ to Both,& Journal of #ir 9a% and Commerce, '"CC4 While &ASA an refuse to learn from its mista,es and continue to insist on controlling all as'ects of s'ace e;'loration, despite its "udgetary onstraints+ the most mutually "enefi ial option is to re6uire &ASA to rely on private ommer ial providers. 7he recertification of the Shuttle %ould re?uire large increases in or reallocations of 8#S#Js 2udget
and could 'otentiall+ lead to the same inefficiencies that have 'lagued 8#S# throughout its histor+" Instead, &ASA should follo% the CommitteeJs suggestion, learn from the su ess of pri7e#

en ouraged innovation+ and >strengthen ... in entives to the ommer ial providers> in their development of suita"le servi es to utiliDe in its ISS o'erations" 8y implementing a potentially government#sponsored pri7e oupled !ith guaranteed ontra ts+ &ASA !ould serve its o!n purposes of shortening >the Gap> and !ould produ e additional in entives for innovation in the private ommer ial spa e transportation industr+" 9i<e%ise, 2+ ensuring that or2iting refueling centers are develo'ed, &ASA !ould in entivi7e and improve propositions of spa e transportation and spa e tourism servi es su h as spa e hotels and private or"ital spa e raft+ allo!ing &ASA to fo us instead on deep spa e exploration.

9AC AT: China CP

1. Perm do "oth 9. China is pursuing spa e militari7ation O gains in overall spa e apa"ilities ause them to lose the gap Ben 8lan hard, staff %riter for Reuters, <#11-2011, R6$I96-China ram's u'
militar+ use of s'ace %ith ne% satellites-re'ort,& Reuters, htt'())%%%"reuters"com)article)2011)0/)12)china-satellites-id!S936/I002220110/12 B6IJI83, Jul+ 12 FReutersG - China is developing utting#edge satellites that !ill allo! it to pro)e t po!er far "eyond its shores and deter the !nited States from using aircraft carriers in an+ future conflict over its rival 7ai%an, a re'ort said" The pie e in 1cto2erJs Journal of Strategic Studies, a !"L"-'u2lished defence and securit+ *ournal, runs at odds !ith ChinaNs stated opposition to the militari7ation of spa e" But the re'ort, an advance co'+ of %hich %as o2tained 2+ Reuters, said that the rapid development of advan ed re onnaissan e satellites to ena"le China to tra , hostile for es in real time and guide "allisti missiles has "e ome a ,ey to the modernisation of its for es " 5hile the !nited States used to 2e unrivaled in this area, China is at hing up fast, it added" KChinaNs onstellation of satellites is transitioning from the limited a2ilit+ to collect general strategic information, into a ne! era in %hich it %ill 2e a2le to su''ort tactical o'erations as the+ ha''en,K the re'ort
said" KChina ma+ alread+ 2e a2le to match the !nited StatesJ a2ilit+ to image a <no%n, stationar+ target and %ill li<el+ sur'ass it in the flurr+ of launches 'lanned for the ne;t t%o +ears"K Bei*ing has consistentl+ denied it has an+thing other than 'eaceful 'lans for s'ace and sa+s its gro%ing militar+ s'ending and 'ro%ess are for defensive

!ith the re ent unveiling of a stealth fighter+ the expe ted laun h of its first air raft arriers and more aggressive posture over territorial disputes su h as one in the South China Sea+ 8ei)ing has rattled nerves regionally and glo"ally "
'ur'oses and modernisation of outdated forces" But

Spa e militari7ation auses nu lear mis al ulation and rushes the e onomy 5illiam C" Eartel, 4rof" 8at" Sec W 8aval, and 7oshi Toshihara, 4h"E" 7ufts, #utumn 9%%?, #verting&, 5ash" T", ' ln
5hat e;actl+ does such an action-reaction c+cle mean, What !ould a "ilateral spa e ra e loo, li,e, =+'otheticall+, in the ne;t 10 +ears, some critical sectors of ChinaJs econom+ and militar+ could 2ecome increasingl+ vulnera2le to disru'tions in s'ace" Euring this same 'eriod, Sino-!"S" relations ma+ not im'rove a''recia2l+, and the 7ai%an ?uestion could remain unresolved" $f Washington and 8ei)ing ould in reasingly hold ea h otherNs spa e infrastru ture hostage "y threatening to use military options in times of risis+ then potentially ris,y paths to preemption ould emerge in the 'olic+ 'lanning 'rocesses in 2oth ca'itals" In 're'aring for a ma*or contingenc+ in the 7ai%an Strait, 2oth the United States and China might "e ompelled to plan for a disa"ling+ "linding atta , on the otherNs spa e systems 2efore the onset of hostilities" 7he most trou2ling dimension to this scenario is that some elements of preemption Falread+ evident in !"S" glo2al doctrineG ould "e ome a permanent feature of !"S" and Chinese strategies in spa e" Indeed, Chinese strategic %ritings toda+ suggest that the leadershi' in Bei*ing 2elieves that 'reem'tion is the rational %a+ to 'revent future !"S" militar+ intervention" If leaders in Bei*ing and 5ashington %ere to 'osition themselves to 'reem't each other, then the t!o sides !ould

enter an era of mutual hostilit+, one that might include desta"ili7ing+ hair# trigger defense postures in spa e !here "oth sides stand ready to laun h a first stri,e on a momentNs noti e" 1ne scenario involves the use of %ea'ons, such as lasers or *ammers, %hich see< to 2lind sensors on imaging satellites or disa2le satellites that 'rovide %arning of missile launches" Imagine, for e;am'le, 5ashingtonJs reaction if China disa2led !"S" missile %arning satellites or vice versa" In that case, Sino#U.S. relations !ould "e highly vulnera"le to the misinterpretations and mis al ulations that ould lead to a onfli t in spa e" #lthough attac<s against s'ace assets %ould li<el+ 2e a 'recursor or a com'lement to a 2roader crisis or conflict, and although conflicts in the s'ace theater ma+ not generate man+ casualties or massive 'h+sical destruction, the e onomi osts of onfli t in s'ace alone for 2oth sides, and for the international communit+, !ould "e extraordinary given that man+ states de'end on satellites for their economic %ell-2eing

?. Conditionality is a voterDZinsert !arrants[ F. The government is dropping the "all O e onomi s !on*t save them 5ill+ 1am, senior fello% at the Jamesto%n $oundation, <#1-2011, #t #ge 00, the
Chinese Communist 4art+ Ha+ Be Strangled B+ Its 1%n #''aratus,& Ja<arta 3lo2e, htt'())%%%"the*a<artaglo2e"com)commentar+)at-age-00-the-chinese-communist'art+-ma+-2e-strangled-2+-its-o%n-a''aratus)44000/ Given the central governmentBs %ealth > it holds @3 trillion in foreign-e;change reserves > an e onomi risis 'reci'itated 2+ factors such as the 2ursting of the real-estate 2u22le is unli,ely to derail the regime" #nd the 'art+Bs la2+rinthine control a''aratus is 'ro2a2l+ via2le enough to 'revent the estimated 1A0,000 cases of riots and distur2ances a +ear from thro%ing the 'art+ out of 'o%er" The party*s !orst enemy is itself+ or more pre isely+ its fast#de lining a"ility to effe tively manage the affairs of 1.F "illion people" Ees'ite its 2loated 2ureaucrac+, Bei*ing has 2een una2le to tac<le age-old malaises ranging from contaminated foodstuffs and a deteriorating environment to endemic corru'tion" #nd it is the CCP*s !orsening pro"lem#solving apa"ilities that !ill li,ely prove its undoing

5. Perm do the CP J. &o neg fiatD no .should not/ in the re7+ CPs are infinitely regressive+ and many heat <. ;oesn*t solve either advantageD US a tion ,ey G. Agent CPs are a voterD steals aff ground+ unrealisti omparison+ and eliminates fo us on resolution

9AC AT: States CP

1. Come onD Permutation do the CP aBlo% meb
Fif +ou have the guts, move onG

9. Courts !ill roll"a , O urrent la! means the legislative has preempted the ounterplan 8ic< 'o"inson, $o; $ello% at Ja%aharlal 8ehru !niversit+ and JE Rale 9a%, 9%%<, CitiDens 8ot Su2*ects( !"S" $oreign Relations 9a% and the EecentraliDation
of $oreign 4olic+,& 40 #<ron 9" Rev" C4/, 9e;is 4art III then argues that ourts are ill#suited to determine !hen lo alitiesN poli ies unduly damage U.S. foreign relations" Instead, it is "etter to let the exe utive and legislative "ran hes use their Constitutional prerogative to de ide !hen to o upy or preempt ertain a tivities %ithin a field of foreign relations" 7herefore, the federal )udi iary should only stri,e do!n a state or lo al la! that affe ts foreign relations !hen it is in expli it onfli t !ith the Constitution or has "een validly and learly preempted "y the exe utive or legislative "ran hes" #lthough courts should largel+ let these other 2ranches regulate state and local governmentsJ
actions in foreign relations, the federal *udiciar+ is 2etter suited to regulate 2oth state courtsJ involvement in foreign relations as %ell as their o%n" 7herefore, a limited invocation of the act of state and 'olitical ?uestion doctrines ma+ at times 2e a''ro'riate to curtail the *udiciar+Js enforcement of some federal and state la%s" U^C.2V !nderstanding the 2enefits of a decentraliDed foreign 'olic+, ho%ever, the federal *udiciar+ should use these doctrines %ith caution"

?. Permutation do "othD Shields the lin, "e ause Congress is per eived as administering a set of state#led initiatives F. Preemption lause means CP gets stru , do!n Eoug Far6uhar, JE and Eir" #g 4rogram W 8ational Conference of State 9egislatures, and 9iD Eeyer, JE candidate W Eenver, $all 9%%<, State
#uthorit+,& 12 Era<e J" #gric" 9" 430, ln
order to 'reem't a state or local regulation" n2.3 Because food safet+ is generall+ a local concern, courts re?uire either e;'licit 'reem'tion or conflict 'reem'tion in

&o state may ompletely ex lude federally li ensed ommer e+ either expli itly or through onfli ting regulations , 2ut it
ma+ 'ut limits on that commerce unless 'reem'ted 2+ federal legislation" n2.4 If 2oth regulations ma+ 2e enforced %ithout im'airing the federal regulation, and it is 'ossi2le to com'l+ %ith 2oth regulations, then the state regulation

a state must also ensure that its la!s do not impose an unreasona"le "urden on interstate ommer e. n2.C A la! regulating food standards annot U^4C0V have a dis riminatory o")e tiveA that is, it cannot 2e 'assed to give in-state 'roducers an advantage in the
ma+ stand" n2.. In addition to ensuring that its regulations do not conflict %ith an+ federal regulations, mar<et" n2./ #dditionall+, it cannot 2e overl+ 2urdensome on out of state 'roducers 2+ having the effect of favoring in-state 'roducers" n2.A

5. 1in,s to politi sD The ounterplan still has &ASA administer the Constellation program itself J. ;oesn*t solve leadership a. CP isn*t per eivedD Iyoto proves 0le tri Utility Wee,ly Se'tem2er 20, 9%%?

Around the !orld+ most ountries mista<enl+ "elieve that "e ause the U.S. has not ratified the Iyoto 4rotocol on greenhouse gases, the nation is doing nothing to redu e 3=3 emissions, said James 3allagher, Eirector of the 1ffice of 6lectricit+ and 6nvironment at the 8e% Ror< 4u2lic Service Commission" JJThere is an incredi2l+ strong "elief that "eneath the federal level+ not mu h is going on,JJ he told the 6missions Har<eting #ssn" conference in Hiami last %ee<" 8ut, he said, a num"er of 'oliticall+ and economicall+ 'o%erful U.S. states are ta,ing the reins to develop poli ies to ut 3=3 emissions 2oth at home and in other ountries"

". CP doesn*t solve the e onomy O empiri ally federal oversight is "etter Clare -untington, #ssociate 4rofessor at the !niversit+ of Colorado 9a% School, 9%%G, 7he Constitutional Eimension of Immigration $ederalism,& C1 :and" 9" Rev"
/A/, 9e;is Criti s of devolution and decentraliDation ite a com'eting set of values" #ccording to these commentators, a strong national government serves an interest in uniformity , n1C4 !hi h furthers fairness and e6uality" n1C. #dditionall+, a strong national government "etter serves e onomi interests "e ause it is less li,ely to "e aptured U^A20V "y e onomi interest groups, n1CC an more easily orre t for mar,et imperfe tions and failures, n1C/ an guard against a regulatory ra e to the "ottom, n1CA and is more effi ient" n1C0 $inall+, a strong national government 2etter
'rotects the fundamental rights of individuals and grou's, as evidenced 2+ the histor+ of race relations and the numerous Su'reme Court decisions stri<ing do%n state la%s that infringed on freedom of s'eech, free e;ercise, and the rights of criminal defendants" n1/0

/" 4ermutation do the 'lan then the C4 G. Permutation do the CP then the plan

9AC AT: Satellite -ardening

1. Perm do "oth 9. CP an*t solve inevita"le China*s nu lear threat
aG =alle; sa+s that !"S" s'ace 2ased surveillance is the <e+ internal lin< to 2eing a2le solve for Chinese nuclear threat" 6ven if +ou give them the ris< of hardening 2olstering out defenses, onl+ the SBSS s+stems have the lasers <e+ to 'rotecting satellite imaging assets from Chinese #S#7 threat 2G #dding defensive measures to our assets onl+ deceases the ris< that a satellite %ill 2e disa2led" =o%ever, %ithout 2eing a2le to trac< the de2ris Hcann+ sa+s %e still run the ris< of the <e+ assets to imagining 2eing destro+ed"

?. Case (ut!eighs the &8s

aG 6ven if the C4 solve for economic colla'se from a loss of s'ace assets, %eBll %in that a first stri<e on china is <e+ to counter the threat of Chinese nu<es"", 2G # %orld devoid of 'lan action guarantees Chinese nuclear aggression" 7his escalation ensuring e;tinction is the most 'ro2a2le conflict in round, thatBs 4er<ovich

F. -ardening is inade6uate O modern ASATs an over!helm any hardening Lurt H" S hend7ielos, ma*or !nited States #ir $orce, Command and 3eneral Staff College, 04-30-20%G, 4rotection in S'ace( # Self-Eefense #c?uisition 4riorit+
for !"S" Satellites, htt'())%%%"stormingmedia"us)3.)3...)#3...A4"html access date( Jul+ 13, 2011V The se ond most relied upon method of prote ting satellites is simply to lassify information a"out the satellite and in lude "alan ed defensive measures su h as ele tromagneti shielding+ maneuver apa"ility+ or onfiguration hanges. #s 'reviousl+ mentioned, 2+ the time a modern laser attac< or direct-ascent attac< has 2een %itnessed, 'rocessed, and finall+ characteriDed as an attac<, an+ active o'tions availa2le to 'rotect the satellite have most li<el+ 2ecome moot" 4assive measures today are in apa"le of fully prote ting against a dire t#as ent ,ineti ,ill interce't or from a high-'o%er ground-2ased laser ASAT, es'eciall+ for a 961 satellite"11. 6ven if the+ could 'rove to 2e effective, declining 2udgets and S9: 2ooster lift ca'acities force com'romise, inhi2iting ade?uate 'h+sical 'rotection measures against modern #S#7 threats"

5. Spa e satellites are inherently fragile+ alternatively !e should depend on other methods #2raham H" ;enmar, and Er" James Eulvenon, $ello% at the Center for a
8e% #merican Securit+N :ice-4resident of Eefense 3rou', Inc"cs Intelligence Eivision and Eirector of E3Ics Center for Intelligence Research and #nal+sis, Januar+ 20 1%,

Contested Commons( 7he $uture of #merican 4o%er in a Hulti'olar 5orld&, Center for a 8e% #merican Securit+, =o%ever, replenishment and hardening is insuffi ient, as it does not address the fundamental pro"lem that the United States relies on a ommons that is inherently fragile and vulnera"le " In the coming decades, the United States should not allo! its military to remain dependent on spa e to fight modern !ars" 7his vulnera2ilit+ ma+ 2e sim'l+ too tem'ting a target for adversaries during a ma*or conflict" 7hus, the U.S. military should develop apa"ilities and do trine to ensure it an operate at a high level of effe tiveness !ithout the use of spa e for C3ISR" 8et%or<s of su2-or2ital, stealth+ and unmanned 'lanes %ith e;tended flight times offer significant 'romise"

J. Satellite hardening to prote t from 0EP is very expensive Er" Jam La,hu and Cesar Laramillo, Hanaging 6ditor, 4ro*ect 4loughshares, #ugust 201%+ S'ace Securit+ 2010"& S'acesecurit+"org,
htt'())%%%"s'acesecurit+"org)s'ace"securit+"2010"reduced"'df" ''" 110-1C/ 6lectronics are the foundation of satellite communications net%or<s, and the threat of an 6lectromagnetic 4ulse F0EPG atta , through a nu lear explosion or fo used mi ro!aves is a on ern for nations %ith spa e assets, as such an atta , !ould involve an .instantaneous+ intense energy field that an overload or disrupt at a distan e numerous ele tri al systems and high te hnology mi ro ir uits, %hich are es'eciall+ sensitive to 'o%er surges"&43 4rotection from a =igh #ltitude 6H4 F=6H4G event involves hardening those ele troni s that 'rovide essential services, in con*unction %ith surge 'rotectors, %hich may provide an a"ility to !ithstand a =6H4 "last"44 5hen com2ined %ith redundanc+ of critical

<. 1in,s to politi s # -ardening satellites are among the most expensive aspe ts+ ma,ing it largely unpopular #2raham H" ;enmar, and Er" James Eulvenon, $ello% at the Center for a
8e% #merican Securit+N :ice-4resident of Eefense 3rou', Inc"cs Intelligence Eivision and Eirector of E3Ics Center for Intelligence Research and #nal+sis, Januar+ 20 1%, Contested Commons( 7he $uture of #merican 4o%er in a Hulti'olar 5orld&, Center for a 8e% #merican Securit+, htt'())%%%"cnas"org)files)documents)'u2lications)C8#SQ20Contested Q20CommonsM1"'df Eefense( 1ne of the least controversial spa e se urity issues concerns defensive measures" !nfortunatel+, the+ also tend to "e among the most expensive aspe ts of spa e se urity and ma+ re6uire !holesale "ureau rati + ultural+ and pro urement hanges" 1n individual satellites, these alterations might in lude hardening against electromagnetic 'ulse, fre?uenc+-ho''ing transmitters and receivers to hel' defeat *amming, maneuvera2ilit+ against <inetic %ea'ons, and stealth to com'licate detection and targeting" 1f course, all su h measures are expensive and tend to de rease the mission relevant aspe ts of a spa e raft. They add !eight and ost" 5hile militar+ s+stems should 'lace mission 'erformance and surviva2ilit+ ahead of economic efficienc+, the commercial s+stems u'on %hich the !nited States increasingl+ relies have

res'onsi2ilities to shareholders that 'reclude hardening their s+stems against a militar+ aggressor" 7o address these shortfalls, the United States should onsider options that improve the rates of return on investment+ ma,ing it more finan ially attra tive for ommer ial servi e providers to design for, and meet, government needs" Such o'tions might include government guarantees of a revenue stream to a commercial 'rovider to offset added demands on a commercial satellite" 7he+ might include outright financing of some commercial s+stems %ith lo%-cost loans or su2sidies for launch and o'erating costs"

RRRAT: I'$T$IS

9AC AT: Cap I

1. The "allot should evaluate ompeting politi al options a. 'e7 8asis ### predi ta"le stasis on the topi !hi h out!eighs ". Unlimits ### evaluating reps is infinitely regressive and means !e ould never !in . Aff hoi eD !e don*t endorse epistemology impa ts so !e shouldn*t have to de"ate them d. Their I self marginali7es itself out of politi s and is therefore useless Jose'h &ye, 'rofessor at =arvard !niversit+ and former dean of the =arvard Lenned+ School, 4-13-9%%H, 5ashington 4ost,
htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)%'d+n)content)article)2000)04)12)#R20000412022C0M'f"html 4-13-00 4resident 12ama has a''ointed some distinguished academic economists and la%+ers to his administration, 2ut fe% high-ran<ing 'olitical scientists have 2een named" In fact, the editors of a recent 'oll of more than 2,/00 international relations e;'erts declared that Kthe !alls surrounding the ivor+ to%er have never seemed so high"K 5hile im'ortant #merican scholars such as =enr+ Lissinger and S2ignie% BrDeDins<i too< high-level foreign 'olic+ 'ositions in the 'ast, that 'ath has tended to 2e a one-%a+ street" &ot many top#ran,ed s holars of international relations are going into government, and even fe%er return to contri2ute to academic theor+" 7he 200A 7eaching, Research and International 4olic+ F7RI4G 'oll, 2+ the Institute for 7heor+ and 4ractice in International Relations, sho%ed that of the 2. scholars rated as 'roducing the most interesting scholarshi' during the 'ast five +ears, onl+ three had ever held 'olic+ 'ositions Ft%o in the !"S" government and one in the !nited 8ationsG" The fault for this gro%ing ga' lies not %ith the government 2ut !ith the a ademi s" S holars are paying less attention to ?uestions a2out ho! their !or, relates to the poli y !orld, and in man+ de'artments a focus on 'olic+ can hurt oneJs career" #dvancement comes faster for those %ho develo' mathematical models, ne% methodologies or theories e;'ressed in *argon that is unintelligi2le to 'olic+ma<ers" # surve+ of articles 'u2lished over the lifetime of the #merican 4olitical Science Revie% found that a2out one in five dealt %ith 'olic+ 'rescri'tion or criticism in the first half of the centur+, %hile onl+ a handful did so after 10C/" 6ditor 9ee Sigelman o2served in the *ournalJs centennial issue that Kif Js'ea<ing truth to 'o%erJ and contri2uting directl+ to 'u2lic dialogue a2out the merits and demerits of various courses of action %ere still num2ered among the functions of the 'rofession, one %ould not have <no%n it from leafing through its leading *ournal"K #s citiDens, a ademi s might "e onsidered to have an o2ligation to help improve on poli y ideas !hen they an" Horeover, su h engagement an enhan e and enrich a ademi !or,+ and thus the a"ility of a ademi s to tea h the next generation" #s former undersecretar+ of state Eavid 8e%som argued a decade ago, Kthe gro%ing !ithdra!al of universit+ s holars "ehind urtains of theory

and modeling !ould not have %ider significance if this trend did not raise 6uestions regarding the preparation of ne! generations and the future influen e of the a ademi ommunity on pu"li and offi ial per eptions of international issues and events" Tea hers plant seeds that shape the thin,ing of ea h ne! generationN this is 'ro2a2l+ the a ademi !orldNs most lasting ontri"ution"K Ret too often scholars teach theor+ and methods that are relevant to other academics 2ut not to the ma*orit+ of the students sitting in the classroom 2efore them" Some academics say that !hile the gro%ing gap "et!een theory and poli y may have osts for poli y, it has produ ed "etter so ial s ien e theory, and that this is more important than !hether su h s holarship is relevant" #lso, to some e;tent, the ga' is an inevita2le result of the gro%th and s'ecialiDation of <no%ledge" $e% 'eo'le can <ee' u' %ith their su2fields, much less all of social science" But the danger is that a ademi theori7ing !ill say more and more a"out less and less" 6ven %hen a ademi s su''lement their usual tric<le-do%n a''roach to 'olic+ 2+ %riting in *ournals, ne%s'a'ers or 2logs, or 2+ consulting for candidates or 'u2lic officials, the+ fa e man+ ompetitors for attention" Hore than 1,200 thin, tan,s in the !nited States provide not only ideas "ut also experts ready to omment or consult at a momentNs noti e" Some of these ne% transmission 2elts serve as translators and additional outlets for academic ideas, 2ut many add a "ias 'rovided 2+ their founders and funders" #s a grou', thin< tan<s are heterogeneous in sco'e, funding, ideolog+ and location, 2ut universities generally offer a more neutral vie!point. 5hile 'luralism of institutional 'ath%a+s is good for democrac+, the poli y pro ess is diminished "y the !ithdra!al of the a ademi ommunity" The solutions must ome via a reappraisal !ithin the a ademy itself" Ee'artments should give greater %eight to real-%orld relevance and im'act in hiring and 'romoting +oung scholars" Journals could 'lace greater %eight on relevance in evaluating su2missions" Studies of s'ecific regions deserve more attention" !niversities could facilitate interest in the %orld 2+ giving *unior facult+ mem2ers greater incentives to 'artici'ate in it" 7hat should include greater toleration of un'o'ular 'olic+ 'ositions" 1ne could multi'l+ such useful suggestions, 2ut +oung 'eo'le should not hold their 2reath %aiting for them to 2e im'lemented" If an+thing, the trends in academic life seem to 2e headed in the o''osite direction"

9. Perm do the plan and the non#mutually ex lusive parts of the alt ?. Capitalism is progressive+ self# orre ting+ and !ealth# generating O ensures sustaina"ility Julian Go,lany, Simon $ello% at the 4olitical 6conom+ Research Center Indur, 9%%<, 8o% $or the 3ood 8e%s& ,
htt'())%%%"reason"com)ne%s)sho%)1102.2"html& 6nvironmentalists and glo"ali7ation foes are united in their fear that greater population and onsumption of energ+, materials, and chemicals a ompanying economic gro!th, technological change and free trade>the mainsta+s of glo2aliDation>degrade human and environmental !ell#"eing. Indeed, the 9%th entury sa! the United States* population multiply 2+ four, income 2+ seven, car2on dio;ide emissions 2+ nine, use of materials 2+ 2/, and use of chemicals 2+ more than 100" Ret life expe tan y in reased from 4/ +ears to // +ears" (nset of ma)or disease such as cancer, heart, and res'irator+ disease has "een

postponed 2et%een eight and eleven +ears in the 'ast centur+" =eart disease and cancer rates have 2een in
ra'id decline over the last t%o decades, and total cancer deaths have actuall+ declined the last t%o +ears, des'ite increases in 'o'ulation" #mong the ver+ +oung, infant mortalit+ has declined from 100 deaths 'er 1,000 2irths in 1013 to *ust seven 'er 1,000 toda+" These improvements haven*t "een restri ted to

the United States. $t*s a glo"al phenomenon. World!ide+ life expe tan y has more than dou"led, from 31 +ears in 1000 to C/ +ears toda+" IndiaBs and ChinaBs infant mortalities
e;ceeded 100 'er 1,000 2irths in the earl+ 10.0sN toda+ the+ are C2 and 2C, res'ectivel+" In the develo'ing %orld, the 'ro'ortion of the 'o'ulation suffering from chronic hunger declined from 3/ 'ercent to 1/ 'ercent 2et%een 10/0 and 2001 des'ite a A3 'ercent increase in 'o'ulation" 3lo2all+ average annual incomes in real dollars have tri'led since 10.0" Conse?uentl+, the 'ro'ortion of the 'lanetJs develo'ing-%orld 'o'ulation living in a2solute poverty has halved since 10A1, from 40 'ercent to 20 'ercent" Child la"or in lo% income countries

de lined from 30 'ercent to 1A 'ercent 2et%een 10C0 and 2003" 6?uall+ im'ortant, the !orld is more literate and "etter edu ated than ever" 4eo'le are freer 'oliticall+, economicall+, and sociall+ to 'ursue their %ell-2eing as the+ see fit" Eore people hoose their o!n rulers+ and have freedom of expression. They are more li,ely to live under rule of la!+ and
less li<el+ to 2e ar2itraril+ de'rived of life, lim2, and 'ro'ert+" Social and 'rofessional mo2ilit+ have also never 2een greater" $t*s easier than ever for people a ross the !orld to trans end the

"onds of aste+ pla e+ gender+ and other a

idents of "irth" 4eo'le toda+ %or< fe%er hours and have more mone+ and 2etter health to en*o+ their leisure time than their ancestors" HanBs environmental record is more com'le;" The early stages of development an indeed ause some environmental deterioration as societies 'ursue first-order 'ro2lems affecting human %ell-2eing" 7hese include hunger, malnutrition, illiterac+, and lac< of education, 2asic 'u2lic health services, safe %ater, sanitation, mo2ilit+, and read+ sources of energ+" Because greater !ealth alleviates these pro"lems %hile 'roviding 2asic creature comforts, individuals and societies initiall+ focus on economic develo'ment, often neglecting other as'ects of environmental ?ualit+" $n time, ho%ever, the+ recogniDe that environmental deterioration reduces their ?ualit+ of life" #ccordingl+, they put more of their re ently a 6uired !ealth and human apital into developing and implementing leaner te hnologies. This "rings a"out an environmental transition via the t!in for es of e onomi development and te hnologi al progress, %hich 2egin to 'rovide solutions to environmental 'ro2lems instead of creating those 'ro2lems" #ll of %hich is %h+ %e toda+ find that the ri hest ountries are also the leanest " #nd %hile
man+ develo'ing countries have +et to get 'ast the green ceiling,& the+ are nevertheless ahead of %here toda+Bs develo'ed countries used to 2e %hen the+ %ere e?uall+ %ealth+" 7he 'oint of transition from Kindustrial 'eriodK to Kenvironmental consciousK continues to fall" $or e;am'le, the !S introduced unleaded gasoline onl+ after its 3E4 'er ca'ita e;ceeded @1C,000" India and China did the same 2efore the+ reached @3,000 'er ca'ita" This

progress is a testament to the po!er of glo"ali7ation and the transfer of ideas and ,no!ledge Fthat lead is harmful, for e;am'leG" $tNs also testament to the importan e of trade in transferring te hnology from developed to developing ountries>in this case, the technolog+ needed to remove lead from gasoline" 7his hints at
the ans%er to the ?uestion of %h+ some 'arts of the %orld have 2een left 2ehind %hile the rest of the %orld has thrived" 5h+ have im'rovements in %ell-2eing stalled in areas such as Su2-Saharan #frica and the #ra2 %orld,

The proximate ause of improvements in !ell#"eing is a . y le of progress/ omposed of the mutually reinfor ing for es of e onomi development and te hnologi al progress" But that c+cle itself is 'ro'elled 2+ a %e2 of

essential institutions, 'articularl+ 'ro'ert+ rights, free mar<ets, and rule of la%" 1ther im'ortant institutions %ould include science- and technolog+-2ased 'ro2lem-solving founded on s<e'ticism and e;'erimentationN rece'tiveness to ne% technologies and ideasN and freer trade in goods, services>most im'ortantl+ in <no%ledge and ideas" In short, free and open so ieties prosper. $solation+ intoleran e+ and hostility to

the free ex hange of ,no!ledge+ te hnology+ people+ and goods "reed stagnation or regression.

F. Alternatives to Capitalism end in !ar and geno ide Rudol'h 'ummel, 'rof" emeritus of 'olitical science at the !niversit+ of =a%aii Rudol'h, 9%%F, 7he Lilling Hachine that is Har;ism&

(f all religions+ se ular and other!ise+ that of Earxism has "een "y far the "loodiest O 2loodier than the Catholic In?uisition, the various Catholic crusades, and the 7hirt+ Rears 5ar 2et%een Catholics and 4rotestants" In 'ractice, Earxism has meant "loody terrorism+ deadly purges+ lethal prison amps and murderous for ed la"or+ fatal deportations, man-made famines+ extra)udi ial exe utions and fraudulent sho! trials+ outright mass murder and geno ide. $n total+ Har;ist regimes murdered nearl+ 110 million 'eo'le from 1H1< to 1HG<. For perspe tive on this in redi"le toll+ note that all domesti and foreign !ars during the 9%th entury ,illed around ?5 million. That is+ !hen Earxists ontrol states+ Earxism is more deadly then all the !ars of the 9%th entury+ in luding World Wars $ and $$+ and the Iorean and 2ietnam Wars. And !hat did Earxism, this greatest of human social e;'eriments+ a hieve for its 'oor citiDens, at this most 2lood+ cost in lives, &othing positive" It left in its %a<e an economic, environmental, social and cultural disaster" 7he Lhmer Rouge O FCam"odian ommunists4 %ho ruled Cam2odia for four +ears O provide insight into !hy Earxists "elieved it ne essary and moral to massa re so many of their fello! humans. Their Earxism !as married to a"solute po!er. They "elieved !ithout a shred of dou"t that they ,ne! the truth+ that they !ould "ring a"out the greatest human !elfare and happiness+ and that to reali7e this utopia+ they had to mer ilessly tear do!n the old feudal or apitalist order and Buddhist culture, and then totall+ re2uild a communist societ+" &othing ould "e allo!ed to stand in the !ay of this achievement" 3overnment O the Communist 4art+ O %as
a2ove an+ la%" #ll other institutions, religions, cultural norms, traditions and sentiments %ere e;'enda2le" 7he Har;ists sa% the construction of this uto'ia as a %ar on 'overt+, e;'loitation, im'erialism and ine?ualit+ O and, as in a real %ar, noncom2atants %ould unfortunatel+ get caught in the 2attle" 7here %ould 2e necessar+ enem+ casualties( the clerg+, 2ourgeoisie, ca'italists, K%rec<ers,K intellectuals, counterrevolutionaries, rightists, t+rants, the rich and landlords" #s in a %ar, millions might die, 2ut these deaths %ould 2e *ustified 2+ the end, as in the defeat of =itler in 5orld 5ar II" To the ruling Earxists+ the goal of a ommunist utopia

!as enough to )ustify all the deaths. The irony is that in pra ti e+ even after de ades of total ontrol+ Earxism did not improve the lot of the average person+ "ut usually made living onditions !orse than "efore the revolution. $t is not "y han e that the !orldNs greatest famines have happened !ithin the Soviet Union Fa2out . million dead from 1021-23 and / million from 1032-3, including 2 million outside !<raineG and ommunist China Fa2out 30 million dead from 10.0-C1G"
1verall, in the last centur+ almost .. million 'eo'le died in various Har;ist famines and associated e'idemics O a little over 10 million of them %ere intentionall+ starved to death, and the rest died as an unintended result of Har;ist collectiviDation and agricultural 'olicies" 5hat is astonishing is that this > urren y> of death

"y Earxism is not thousands or even hundreds of thousands+ "ut millions of deaths. This is almost in omprehensi"le O it is as though the !hole population of the Ameri an &e! 0ngland and Eiddle Atlanti States+ or California and Texas+ had "een !iped out. And that around ?5 million people es aped Earxist ountries as refugees !as an une6ualed vote against Earxist utopian pretensions" Its e?uivalent %ould 2e ever+one fleeing California,
em't+ing it of all human 2eings" 7here is a su'remel+ im'ortant lesson for human life and %elfare to 2e learned from this horrendous sacrifice to one ideolog+( 8o one can 2e trusted %ith unlimited 'o%er" The more

po!er a government has to impose the "eliefs of an ideologi al or religious elite+ or de ree the !hims of a di tator+ the more li,ely human lives and !elfare !ill "e sa rifi ed. As a governmentNs po!er is more unrestrained+ as its po!er rea hes into all orners of ulture and so iety+ the more li,ely it is to ,ill its o!n iti7ens .

5. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves J. Perm do "othD Criti6ue alone fails O integration of a tual solutions ,ey 4eter ;i ,ens and James (rmrod, :isiting 4rofessor of Sociolog+ at the
!niversit+ of 6sse; #8E ^^9ecturer in Sociolog+ at the !niversit+ of Brighton, 9%%<, Cosmic Societ+( 7o%ards a Sociolog+ of the !niverse& 'g 100 0xplanatory riti6ue an only go so far. Philosophy and so iology are only tools for un overing ho! reality is stru tured and for freeing u' the discussion of feasi2le alternatives" $t !ill ta,e mu h hard !or, and politi s on a mass scale to forge ne! so ial allian es+ ounter#hegemoni ideologies and spa e pro)e ts that "enefit oppressed populations" 7he ultimate aim of this must 2e a relationshi' %ith the universe
that does not further em'o%er the alread+ 'o%erful"

<. Perm do the alt G. Capitalism has a "ad rep+ ho!ever is empiri ally "etter than the alternatives. So ialism and 0nvironmentalism are essentially utopian and are una"le to fulfill their promises of prosperity. 4eter Saunders, 'rofessor emeritus at the Centre for Inde'endent Studies and
#d*unct 4rofessor at the #ustralian 3raduate School of Hanagement" =e %as 'reviousl+ of !niversit+ of Susse; in 6ngland, 9%%<, 5=R C#4I7#9ISH IS 311E $1R 7=6 S1!9&, htt'())%%%"cis"org"au)419ICR)summerQ200/0A)saundersMsummer0/"html& The pro"lem for those of us !ho "elieve that apitalism offers the "est han e !e have for leading meaningful and !orth!hile lives is that in this de"ate+ the devil has al!ays had the "est tunes to play. Capitalism la ,s romanti appeal. $t does not set the pulse ra ing in the !ay that opposing ideologies li,e so ialism+ fas ism+ or environmentalism an" It does not stir the 2lood, for it identifies no dragons to sla+" $t offers no grand vision for the future+ for in an open mar,et system the future is shaped not "y the imposition of utopian "lueprints+ "ut "y "illions of individuals pursuing their o!n preferen es. Capitalism an )ustifia"ly "oast that it is ex ellent at delivering the goods+ 2ut this fails to im'ress in countries li<e #ustralia that have come to ta<e affluence for granted" $t is 6uite the opposite !ith so ialism. Where apitalism delivers "ut annot inspire+ so ialism inspires despite never having delivered . So ialism*s history is littered !ith repeated failures and !ith human misery on a massive s ale+ yet it still attra ts smiles rather than urses from people !ho never had to live under it" #ffluent +oung #ustralians %ho %ould never dream of 'atronising an #dolf =itler 2ier<eller

dec<ed out in s%asti<as are nevertheless ha''+ to hang out in the 9enin Bar at S+dne+Bs Circular Tua+, si''ing chilled vod<a coc<tails under hammer and sic<le flags, indifferent to the t%ent+ million victims of the Soviet regime" Chic %esterners are still s'orting Che 3uevara t-shirts, fort+ +ears after the manBs death, and floc<ing to the cinema to see him on a motor 2i<e, a''arentl+ o2livious to their handsome heroBs legac+ of firing s?uads and la2our

0nvironmentalism+ too+ has the happy ,na , of inspiring the young and firing the imagination of idealists" 7his is 2ecause the radical green movement shares man+ features %ith old-st+le revolutionar+ socialism" 8oth are oppositional+ defining themselves as alternatives to the existing apitalist system. 8oth are moralisti + see,ing to purify humanity of its ta!dry materialism and
cam's"

selfishness+ and appealing to our Xhigher instin ts "B Both are a'ocal+'tic, claiming to 2e
a2le to read the future and %arning, li<e 1ld 7estament 'ro'hets, of looming catastro'he if %e do not change our %a+s" #nd "oth are utopian+ holding out the promise of redemption through a

ne! so ial order "ased on a more enlightened humanity" #ll of this is irresisti2l+
a''ealing to romantics"

H. Capitalism prevents !ar Eoug 8ando!, a senior fello% at the Cato Institute, 10-2C,- 9%%5 # Ca'italist
4eace,&, htt'())%%%"reason"com)ne%s)sho%)320A."html& There are a num"er of reasons !hy e onomi s appears to trump politi s. The shift from statist mercantilism to high#te h apitalism has transformed the e onomi s "ehind !ar. Ear,ets generate e onomi opportunities that ma,e !ar less desira"le" 7erritorial aggrandiDement no longer 'rovides the 2est 'ath to riches" Free#flo!ing apital mar,ets and other aspe ts of glo"ali7ation simultaneously dra! nations together and raise the e onomi pri e of military onfli t+ "e ause the politi al desta"ili7ation resulting from !ar deters profita"le investment and trade" Horeover, sanctions, %hich interfere %ith economic
'ros'erit+, 'rovides a coercive ste' short of %ar to achieve foreign 'olic+ ends"

1%. ;isengagement from traditional politi s is the !orst in yni al leftist gar"age O our hypothesi7ing a"out the omplex inner#!or,ing of government is ,ey to reating spa e for the riti6ue
Eavid 6" McClean, 2001, 7he Cultural 9eft and the 9imits of Social =o'e,& #m" 4hil" Conf", %%%"american'hiloso'h+"org)archives)'astMconferenceM'rograms)'c2001)Eiscussion Q20'a'ers)davidMmcclean"htm
7he disease is the need for ela2orate theoretical KremediesK %ra''ed in neological and multi-s+lla2ic *argon" 7hese ela"orate theoreti al remedies are more >interesting,K to 2e sure, than the

pragmati ally settled 6uestions a2out %hat sha'e democrac+ should ta<e in various conte;ts, or %hether 'rivate 'ro'ert+ should 2e 'rotected 2+ the state, or regarding our 2asic human nature F des ri"ed, if not defined Fheaven for2idYG, in su h statements as >We donNt li,e to starve> and >We li,e to spea, our minds !ithout fear of deathK and K5e li<e to <ee' our children safe from
'overt+KG" #s Rort+ 'uts it, K5hen one of toda+Js academic leftists sa+s that some to'ic has 2een Jinade?uatel+ theoriDed,J +ou can 2e 'rett+ certain that he or she is going to drag in either 'hiloso'h+ of language, or 9acanian 's+choanal+sis, or some neo-Har;ist version of economic determinism" " " " These futile attempts to

philosophi7e oneNs !ay into politi al relevan e are a symptom of !hat happens !hen a 1eft retreats from a tivism and adopts a spe tatorial approa h to the pro"lems of its ountry. ;isengagement from pra ti e produ es theoreti al hallu inationsKFitalics mineG"F1G 1r as John Ee%e+ 'ut it in his 7he 8eed for
a Recover+ of 4hiloso'h+, KI 2elieve that 'hiloso'h+ in #merica %ill 2e lost 2et%een che%ing a historical cud long since reduced to %ood+ fi2er, or an a'ologetics for lost causes, " " " " or a scholastic, schematic formalism, unless it can someho% 2ring to consciousness #mericaJs o%n needs and its o%n im'licit 'rinci'le of successful action"K 7hose %ho suffer or have suffered from this disease Rort+ refers to as the Cultural 9eft, %hich left is *u;ta'osed to the 4olitical 9eft that Rort+ 'refers and 'refers for good reason" #nother attri2ute of the Cultural 9eft is that its mem2ers fanc+ themselves 'ure culture critics %ho vie% the successes of #merica and the 5est, rather than some of the 2ar2arous methods for achieving those successes, as mostl+ evil, and %ho vie% an+thing li<e national 'ride as e?uall+ evil even %hen that 'ride is tem'ered %ith the <no%ledge and admission of the nationJs shortcomings" In other %ords, the Cultural 1eft, in this countr+, too often dismiss Ameri an so iety as

"eyond reform and redemption" #nd Rort+ correctl+ argues that this is a disastrous on lusion, i"e" disastrous for the Cultural 9eft" I thin< it ma+ also 2e disastrous for our social ho'es, as I %ill e;'lain" 1eftist Ameri an ulture riti s might put their onsidera"le talents

to "etter use if they "ury some of their yni ism a2out #mericaJs social and 'olitical 'ros'ects and help forge pu"li and politi al possi"ilities in a s'irit of determination to,
indeed, achieve our countr+ - the countr+ of Jefferson and LingN the countr+ of John Ee%e+ and Halcom ZN the countr+ of $ran<lin Roosevelt and Ba+ard Rustin, and of the later 3eorge 5allace and the later Barr+ 3old%ater" 7o invo<e the %ords of Ling, and %ith reference to the #merican societ+, the time is al%a+s ri'e to seiDe the o''ortunit+ to hel' create the K2eloved communit+,K one %oven %ith the thread of aga'e into a conce'tuall+ single +et diverse ta'estr+ that shoots for nothing less than a true intra-#merican cosmo'olitan ethos, one %herein 2oth same se; unions and faith-2ased initiatives %ill 2e a2le to 2e 'art of the same social realit+, one %herein 2usiness interests and the universit+ are not seen as 2elonging to t%o se'arate gala;ies 2ut as 'art of the same ans%er to the threat of social and ethical nihilism" We !ho fan y ourselves philosophers !ould do

!ell to reate from !ithin ourselves and from %ithin our ran<s a ne! ,ind of pu"li intelle tual !ho has "oth a hungry theoreti al mind and %ho is yet apa"le of seeing the need to move past high theory to other important 6uestions that are less "eda77ling and >interesting> "ut more important to the 'ros'ect of
our flourishing - ?uestions such as K=o% is it 'ossi2le to develo' a citiDenr+ that cherishes a certain he;is, one %hich 'riDes the character of the Samaritan on the road to Jericho almost more than an+ other,K or K=o% can %e s?uare the 'olitical dogma that undergirds the fantas+ of a missile defense s+stem %ith the need to treat #merica as 2ut one mem2er in a communit+ of nations under a Kla% of 'eo'les,K The ne! pu"li philosopher

might see, to understand la"or la! and military and trade theory and do trine as mu h as theories of surplus valueA the logi of international mar,ets and trade agreements as mu h as riti6ues of ommodifi ation+ and the politi s of omplexity as mu h as the politi s of po!er Fall of %hich can still 2e done from our arm chairs"G This means going do!n deep into the guts of our 6uotidian so ial institutions+ into the grimy pragmati details !here intelle tuals are loathe to d!ell "ut !here the offi ers and "ureau rats of those institutions ta,e diffi ult and often unpleasant+ imperfe t de isions that affe t other peoplesN lives+ and it means ma,ing honest attempts to truly understand ho! those institutions a tually fun tion in the a tual !orld "efore ho!ling for their overthro! ommen es" This might help ,eep us from "eing sla''ed do%n in de"ates "y true poli y pros !ho a tually <no% !hat they are tal,ing a"out "ut !ho la , a!areness of the dogmati assumptions from !hi h they pro eed+ and !ho have not yet found a good reason to listen to *argon#riddled lectures from philosophers and ulture riti s !ith their sno"ish disrespe t for the so# alled >managerial lass.>

9AC AT: Fem I

1. The "allot should evaluate ompeting politi al options a. 'e7 8asis ### predi ta"le stasis on the topi !hi h out!eighs ". Unlimits ### evaluating reps is infinitely regressive and means !e ould never !in . Aff hoi eD !e don*t endorse epistemology impa ts so !e shouldn*t have to de"ate them d. Their I self marginali7es itself out of politi s and is therefore useless Jose'h &ye, 'rofessor at =arvard !niversit+ and former dean of the =arvard Lenned+ School, 4-13-9%%H, 5ashington 4ost,
htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)%'d+n)content)article)2000)04)12)#R20000412022C0M'f"html 4-13-00 4resident 12ama has a''ointed some distinguished academic economists and la%+ers to his administration, 2ut fe% high-ran<ing 'olitical scientists have 2een named" In fact, the editors of a recent 'oll of more than 2,/00 international relations e;'erts declared that Kthe !alls surrounding the ivor+ to%er have never seemed so high"K 5hile im'ortant #merican scholars such as =enr+ Lissinger and S2ignie% BrDeDins<i too< high-level foreign 'olic+ 'ositions in the 'ast, that 'ath has tended to 2e a one-%a+ street" &ot many top#ran,ed s holars of international relations are going into government, and even fe%er return to contri2ute to academic theor+" 7he 200A 7eaching, Research and International 4olic+ F7RI4G 'oll, 2+ the Institute for 7heor+ and 4ractice in International Relations, sho%ed that of the 2. scholars rated as 'roducing the most interesting scholarshi' during the 'ast five +ears, onl+ three had ever held 'olic+ 'ositions Ft%o in the !"S" government and one in the !nited 8ationsG" The fault for this gro%ing ga' lies not %ith the government 2ut !ith the a ademi s" S holars are paying less attention to ?uestions a2out ho! their !or, relates to the poli y !orld, and in man+ de'artments a focus on 'olic+ can hurt oneJs career" #dvancement comes faster for those %ho develo' mathematical models, ne% methodologies or theories e;'ressed in *argon that is unintelligi2le to 'olic+ma<ers" # surve+ of articles 'u2lished over the lifetime of the #merican 4olitical Science Revie% found that a2out one in five dealt %ith 'olic+ 'rescri'tion or criticism in the first half of the centur+, %hile onl+ a handful did so after 10C/" 6ditor 9ee Sigelman o2served in the *ournalJs centennial issue that Kif Js'ea<ing truth to 'o%erJ and contri2uting directl+ to 'u2lic dialogue a2out the merits and demerits of various courses of action %ere still num2ered among the functions of the 'rofession, one %ould not have <no%n it from leafing through its leading *ournal"K #s citiDens, a ademi s might "e onsidered to have an o2ligation to help improve on poli y ideas !hen they an" Horeover, su h engagement an enhan e and enrich a ademi !or,+ and thus the a"ility of a ademi s to tea h the next generation" #s former undersecretar+ of state Eavid 8e%som argued a decade ago, Kthe gro%ing !ithdra!al of universit+ s holars "ehind urtains of theory

and modeling !ould not have %ider significance if this trend did not raise 6uestions regarding the preparation of ne! generations and the future influen e of the a ademi ommunity on pu"li and offi ial per eptions of international issues and events" Tea hers plant seeds that shape the thin,ing of ea h ne! generationN this is 'ro2a2l+ the a ademi !orldNs most lasting ontri"ution"K Ret too often scholars teach theor+ and methods that are relevant to other academics 2ut not to the ma*orit+ of the students sitting in the classroom 2efore them" Some academics say that !hile the gro%ing gap "et!een theory and poli y may have osts for poli y, it has produ ed "etter so ial s ien e theory, and that this is more important than !hether su h s holarship is relevant" #lso, to some e;tent, the ga' is an inevita2le result of the gro%th and s'ecialiDation of <no%ledge" $e% 'eo'le can <ee' u' %ith their su2fields, much less all of social science" But the danger is that a ademi theori7ing !ill say more and more a"out less and less" 6ven %hen a ademi s su''lement their usual tric<le-do%n a''roach to 'olic+ 2+ %riting in *ournals, ne%s'a'ers or 2logs, or 2+ consulting for candidates or 'u2lic officials, the+ fa e man+ ompetitors for attention" Hore than 1,200 thin, tan,s in the !nited States provide not only ideas "ut also experts ready to omment or consult at a momentNs noti e" Some of these ne% transmission 2elts serve as translators and additional outlets for academic ideas, 2ut many add a "ias 'rovided 2+ their founders and funders" #s a grou', thin< tan<s are heterogeneous in sco'e, funding, ideolog+ and location, 2ut universities generally offer a more neutral vie!point. 5hile 'luralism of institutional 'ath%a+s is good for democrac+, the poli y pro ess is diminished "y the !ithdra!al of the a ademi ommunity" The solutions must ome via a reappraisal !ithin the a ademy itself" Ee'artments should give greater %eight to real-%orld relevance and im'act in hiring and 'romoting +oung scholars" Journals could 'lace greater %eight on relevance in evaluating su2missions" Studies of s'ecific regions deserve more attention" !niversities could facilitate interest in the %orld 2+ giving *unior facult+ mem2ers greater incentives to 'artici'ate in it" 7hat should include greater toleration of un'o'ular 'olic+ 'ositions" 1ne could multi'l+ such useful suggestions, 2ut +oung 'eo'le should not hold their 2reath %aiting for them to 2e im'lemented" If an+thing, the trends in academic life seem to 2e headed in the o''osite direction"

9. Perm do the plan and the non#mutually ex lusive parts of the alt 3" Use of a land ethi strips individual identities. &o value to life unless related to the land" 2an e+ H5 U9inda" KSe;ist 5ords, S'eciesist RootsK Animals and %omen:
&eminist Theoretical E'"lorations 2+ Carol J" #dams I Jose'hine Eonovan" 4g" 1/3V #nother 'o'ular theor+ that tells a stor+ a2out animals is K the land ethi +> a hara teristi ally holisti approa h that en ourages humans to stop imagining ourselves as superior "eings morally entitled to dominate nature+ and instead to see ourselves as simple iti7ens of a "ioti ommunity, no more or less 'rivileged than a frog, a tree, or a river" 7he im'ortant unit of moral consideration is Kthe land,K the entire communit+ of 2eings and 'rocesses" #ldo 9eo'old, %hose %or< has formed the 2asis of much su2se?uent holistic theoriDing, 2elieved that all action could 2e *udged according to a single

moral 'rinci'le( K# thing is good %hen it tends to 'reserve the integrit+, sta2ilit+ and 2eaut+ of the 2iotic communit+" It is %rong %hen it tends other%iseK F 224G" 3enerall+ stated, then, the land ethi ta,es no noti e of individuals ex ept insofar as their presen e or a"sen e affe ts the ommunity. #lthough it avoids the crude Kgood animal)2ad animalK fantas+ of anthro'ocentric 'ositions, the land ethi ontinues to distinguish "et!een lasses of animals. $or domestic animals, the outcome of the stor+ is 'redetermined( the+ %ill 2e meat" $or %ild animals, a degree of chance is 'ossi2le( although, as land ethic 'ro'onent Baird Callicott o2serves, Kthe most fundamental fact of life in the 2iotic communit+ is eating"""and 2eing eatenK F ./ G, %ild animals ma+ e;ercise their o%n cunning, luc<, and strength to effectivel+ coauthor their life stories" Host significantl+, ho%ever, the land ethi does not allo! for the onsideration of parti ularly situated individuals: everything exists as a spe imen+ a representative of a type+ and is )udged as su h. An individual life has no value ## unless+ of ourse+ that individual is among the last of its ,ind. And !hile onfli ts "et!een individuals may arise+ they are irrelevant unless their resolution !ill affe t >the land.>

F. Feminist analysis often erases animal oppression+ )ust as patriar hy does Adams+ H% UCarol J( teacher at 4er<ins School of 7heolog+, Eallas" 7he Se;ual
4olitics of Heat" 4g" C0-C1V $n onstru ting stories a"out violen e against !omen+ feminists have dra!n on the same set of ultural images as their oppressors. Feminist riti s per eive the violen e inherent in representations that ollapse sexuality and onsumption and have titled this ne;us carnivorous arrogance& FSimone Ee BeauvoirG, g+nocidal glutton+& FHar+ Eal+G, se;ual canni2alism& FLate HillerG, 's+chic canni2alism& F#ndrea E%or<inG, meta'h+sical canni2alism& F7i3race #t<insonGN racism as it intersects %ith se;ism has 2een defined 2+ 2ell hoo<s in distinctions 2ased on meat eating( 7he truth is>in se;ist #merica, %here %omen are o2*ectified e;tensions of male ego, 2lac< %omen have 2een la2eled ham2urger and %hite %omen 'rime ri2"&/2 These feminist theorists ta,e us to the interse tion of the oppression of !omen and the oppression of animals and then do an immediate a"out#fa e+ sei7ing the fun tion of the a"sent referent to for!ard !omen*s issues and so imitating and omplementing a patriar hal stru ture. ;ealing in sym"ols and similes that express humiliation+ o")e tifi ation+ and violation is an understanda"le attempt to impose order on a violently fragmented female sexual reality " 5hen %e use meat and 2utchering as meta'hors for %omenBs o''ression, %e e;'ress our o%n hog-s?ueal of the universe %hile silencing the 'rimal hog-s?ueal of !rsula =amdress herself" When radi al feminist tal, as if ultural ex hanges !ith animals are literally true in relationship to !omen+ they exploit and o#opt !hat is a tually done to animals. $t ould "e argued that the use of these metaphors is as exploitative as the posing of Ursula -amdress ( an anon+mous 'ig some%here %as dressed, 'osed, and 'hotogra'hed" 5as she

sedated to <ee' that 'ose or %as she, 'erha's, dead, 'adi al feminist theory parti ipates linguisti ally in exploiting and denying the a"sent referent "y not in luding in their vision Ursula -amdress*s fate. They "ut her the animal=!oman ultural ex hanges represented in the operation of the a"sent referent and then address themselves solely to !omen+ thus apitulating to the a"sent referent+ part of the same onstru t they !ish to hange"/3 What is a"sent rom mu h feminist theory that relies on metaphors of animals* oppression for illuminating !omen*s experien e is the reality "ehind the metaphor. 5hen Har+ Eal+ suggests raiding the 4la+2o+Bs 'la+ground to let out the 2unnies, the 2itches, the 2eavers, the s?uirrels, the chic<s, the 'uss+cats, the co%s, the nags, the fo;+ ladies, the old 2ats and 2iddies, so that the+ can at last 2egin naming themselves& %e, her readers <no% that she is tal<ing a2out %omen and not a2out actual 2unnies, 2itches, 2eavers, and so on"/4 Butr, I argue, she should 2e" 1ther%ise + feminist theorists* use of language des ri"es+ refle ts+ and perpetuates oppression "y denying the extent to !hi h these oppressions are ulturally analogous "

5. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves J. Perm do "othD 0 ofeminism negle ts politi s. &eed a tion# oriented poli y to avoid threats. Alaimo+ HF UStac+" C+2org and 6cofeminist Interventions( Challenges for an
6nvironmental $eminism" &eminist Studies,20"1, 1004"V #s environmental destruction increases, interest in ecofeminism gro%s" 7he ne% Hs" includes ecofeminism as a regular feature, and =+'atiaC recentl+ devoted an entire issue to it" Ret critics charge that recent e ofeminist !ritings negle t politi s" $or e;am'le, #riel Salleh criti?ues the latest ecofeminist anthologies( KBoth 4lant =ealing the 5ounds F 10A0 G and Eiamond and 1renstein Re%eaving the 5orld F 1000 G are, %ith the e;ce'tion of one or t%o essa+s + largely preo upied !ith ethi s+ life#style+ selfreali7ation+ ultural ritual and art## this+ !hile FJ5 million people starve today+ and one more spe ies !ill have died out "y midnight.>/ Similarl+, Ste'hanie 9ahar contends that the K referen e to politi al praxis has de reased relative to earlier dis ussions K and as<s( KCan !e afford not to have an a tion#oriented philosophy at a risis point in so ial and natural history+ !hen !e are literally threatened on a glo"al s ale "y annihilation "y nu lear !ar or e ologi al destru tionM> A 7hese criti?ues ma+ signal a move 2ac< to the 'oliticall+ engaged ecofeminism e;em'lified 2+ the 10A3 antholog+ Reclaim the 6arth( 5omen S'ea< 1ut for 9ife on 6arth, edited 2+ 9eonie Caldecotte and Ste'hanie 9eland" #lthough the a2ove criti?ues still share the 2asic values and goals of ecofeminism, Janet Biehl Rethin<ing 6cofeminist 4olitics re*ects ecofeminism in favor of Hurra+ Boo<chinJs social ecolog+" Huch of BiehlJs dismissal stems from her re'udiation not *ust of

%omen)nature meta'hors 2ut of all meta'hors" KInsofar as the ecofeminist 2ases for ethics--interconnectedness, aliveness, J%omenJs caringJ--are mediated 2+ the meta'hors of J%oman-nature,J the+ avoid the 'ro2lem of o2*ectivit+ in the real %orld" 7hus, if an ethic is to 2e 2ased strictl+ on meta'hors, it 2ecomes %holl+ tenuous"K She later e;'lains that meta'hors should not found 'olitical movements 2ecause Kone of the functions of a 'olitical movement, let alone a radical one, is to e;'lain the %orld, not to o2scure it"K0Biehl criti?ues ecofeminism from an e'istemologicall+ sim'listic ground %here Krealit+K and Kmeta'hor,K KreasonK and Km+thK stand as 'ure 'olarities" But an+ ethics or 'olitics-- indeed, an+ %a+ of thin<ing--is sha'ed via meta'hors and ideologies" Instead of castigating ecofeminismJs use of meta'hors, it %ould 2e more 'roductive to anal+De the s'ecific effects of those meta'hors %ithin their conte;t"

<. Perm do the alt G. Addressing the issue of !omen does not solve other spe ifi environmental issues+ and the !holesale re)e tion lin,s. &agl#;o e,al *HH U=erta( 4rofessor of 4hiloso'h+ at the !niversit+ of :ienna,
#ustria" 7he $eminist Criti?ue of Reason Revisited,& (y"atia, 14"1, 1000"V

7he thesis that human 2eings dominate 8ature can *ust as %ell 2e formulated %ithout allusion to gender relations" If it turns out that this thesis itself is in need of
critical discussion>for instance in reference to toda+Js environmental crisis>then %e are dealing %ith a s'ecific 'ro2lem" 5e cannot condemn the human domination of 8ature sim'l+ 2+ underscoring that %omenJs su2ordination is unacce'ta2le" In other %ords, the demand for %omenJs li2eration does not ma<e it necessar+ , 2+ the same to<en, to

give u' structures of su2ordination 'resumed to 2e found in an+ other area of realit+" 7hough LellerJs claim to discern e;'licitl+ 'atriarchal thoughts in BaconJs %or< is dou2tlessl+ *ustified, her criti?ue loses 'lausi2ilit+ as she considers the detected 'atriarchal traits a sufficient reason for charging BaconJs entire conce'tion of science to 2e mar<ed 2+ a masculine 2ias" 7hat Leller fails to ta<e issue, in detail, %ith
BaconJs use of gendered com'arisons adds an, no dou2t, unintended element to her thought( the %holesale o2*ection she raises 'resu''oses that she, instead of articulating a re'udiation, tacitl+ ado'ts this ver+ alignment of scientific rationalit+ %ith maleness"

H. ;isengagement from traditional politi s is the !orst in yni al leftist gar"age O our hypothesi7ing a"out the omplex inner#!or,ing of government is ,ey to reating spa e for the riti6ue
Eavid 6" McClean, 2001, 7he Cultural 9eft and the 9imits of Social =o'e,& #m" 4hil" Conf", %%%"american'hiloso'h+"org)archives)'astMconferenceM'rograms)'c2001)Eiscussion Q20'a'ers)davidMmcclean"htm
7he disease is the need for ela2orate theoretical KremediesK %ra''ed in neological and multi-s+lla2ic *argon" 7hese ela"orate theoreti al remedies are more >interesting,K to 2e sure, than the

pragmati ally settled 6uestions a2out %hat sha'e democrac+ should ta<e in various conte;ts, or %hether 'rivate 'ro'ert+ should 2e 'rotected 2+ the state, or regarding our 2asic human nature F des ri"ed, if not defined Fheaven for2idYG, in su h statements as >We donNt li,e to starve> and >We

li,e to spea, our minds !ithout fear of deathK and K5e li<e to <ee' our children safe from
'overt+KG" #s Rort+ 'uts it, K5hen one of toda+Js academic leftists sa+s that some to'ic has 2een Jinade?uatel+ theoriDed,J +ou can 2e 'rett+ certain that he or she is going to drag in either 'hiloso'h+ of language, or 9acanian 's+choanal+sis, or some neo-Har;ist version of economic determinism" " " " These futile attempts to

philosophi7e oneNs !ay into politi al relevan e are a symptom of !hat happens !hen a 1eft retreats from a tivism and adopts a spe tatorial approa h to the pro"lems of its ountry. ;isengagement from pra ti e produ es theoreti al hallu inationsKFitalics mineG"F1G 1r as John Ee%e+ 'ut it in his 7he 8eed for
a Recover+ of 4hiloso'h+, KI 2elieve that 'hiloso'h+ in #merica %ill 2e lost 2et%een che%ing a historical cud long since reduced to %ood+ fi2er, or an a'ologetics for lost causes, " " " " or a scholastic, schematic formalism, unless it can someho% 2ring to consciousness #mericaJs o%n needs and its o%n im'licit 'rinci'le of successful action"K 7hose %ho suffer or have suffered from this disease Rort+ refers to as the Cultural 9eft, %hich left is *u;ta'osed to the 4olitical 9eft that Rort+ 'refers and 'refers for good reason" #nother attri2ute of the Cultural 9eft is that its mem2ers fanc+ themselves 'ure culture critics %ho vie% the successes of #merica and the 5est, rather than some of the 2ar2arous methods for achieving those successes, as mostl+ evil, and %ho vie% an+thing li<e national 'ride as e?uall+ evil even %hen that 'ride is tem'ered %ith the <no%ledge and admission of the nationJs shortcomings" In other %ords, the Cultural 1eft, in this countr+, too often dismiss Ameri an so iety as

"eyond reform and redemption" #nd Rort+ correctl+ argues that this is a disastrous on lusion, i"e" disastrous for the Cultural 9eft" I thin< it ma+ also 2e disastrous for our social ho'es, as I %ill e;'lain" 1eftist Ameri an ulture riti s might put their onsidera"le talents to "etter use if they "ury some of their yni ism a2out #mericaJs social and 'olitical 'ros'ects and help forge pu"li and politi al possi"ilities in a s'irit of determination to,
indeed, achieve our countr+ - the countr+ of Jefferson and LingN the countr+ of John Ee%e+ and Halcom ZN the countr+ of $ran<lin Roosevelt and Ba+ard Rustin, and of the later 3eorge 5allace and the later Barr+ 3old%ater" 7o invo<e the %ords of Ling, and %ith reference to the #merican societ+, the time is al%a+s ri'e to seiDe the o''ortunit+ to hel' create the K2eloved communit+,K one %oven %ith the thread of aga'e into a conce'tuall+ single +et diverse ta'estr+ that shoots for nothing less than a true intra-#merican cosmo'olitan ethos, one %herein 2oth same se; unions and faith-2ased initiatives %ill 2e a2le to 2e 'art of the same social realit+, one %herein 2usiness interests and the universit+ are not seen as 2elonging to t%o se'arate gala;ies 2ut as 'art of the same ans%er to the threat of social and ethical nihilism" We !ho fan y ourselves philosophers !ould do

!ell to reate from !ithin ourselves and from %ithin our ran<s a ne! ,ind of pu"li intelle tual !ho has "oth a hungry theoreti al mind and %ho is yet apa"le of seeing the need to move past high theory to other important 6uestions that are less "eda77ling and >interesting> "ut more important to the 'ros'ect of
our flourishing - ?uestions such as K=o% is it 'ossi2le to develo' a citiDenr+ that cherishes a certain he;is, one %hich 'riDes the character of the Samaritan on the road to Jericho almost more than an+ other,K or K=o% can %e s?uare the 'olitical dogma that undergirds the fantas+ of a missile defense s+stem %ith the need to treat #merica as 2ut one mem2er in a communit+ of nations under a Kla% of 'eo'les,K The ne! pu"li philosopher

might see, to understand la"or la! and military and trade theory and do trine as mu h as theories of surplus valueA the logi of international mar,ets and trade agreements as mu h as riti6ues of ommodifi ation+ and the politi s of omplexity as mu h as the politi s of po!er Fall of %hich can still 2e done from our arm chairs"G This means going do!n deep into the guts of our 6uotidian so ial institutions+ into the grimy pragmati details !here intelle tuals are loathe to d!ell "ut !here the offi ers and "ureau rats of those institutions ta,e diffi ult and often unpleasant+ imperfe t de isions that affe t other peoplesN lives+ and it means ma,ing honest attempts to truly understand ho! those institutions a tually fun tion in the a tual !orld "efore ho!ling for their overthro! ommen es" This might help ,eep us from "eing sla''ed do%n in de"ates "y true poli y pros !ho a tually <no% !hat they are tal,ing a"out "ut !ho la , a!areness of the dogmati assumptions from !hi h they pro eed+ and !ho have not yet found a good reason to listen to *argon#riddled lectures from philosophers and ulture riti s !ith their sno"ish disrespe t for the so# alled >managerial lass.>
class"K

9AC AT: Se urity I

1. The "allot should evaluate ompeting politi al options a. 'e7 8asis ### predi ta"le stasis on the topi !hi h out!eighs ". Unlimits ### evaluating reps is infinitely regressive and means !e ould never !in . Aff hoi eD !e don*t endorse epistemology impa ts so !e shouldn*t have to de"ate them d. Their I self marginali7es itself out of politi s and is therefore useless Jose'h &ye, 'rofessor at =arvard !niversit+ and former dean of the =arvard Lenned+ School, 4-13-9%%H, 5ashington 4ost,
htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)%'d+n)content)article)2000)04)12)#R20000412022C0M'f"html 4-13-00 4resident 12ama has a''ointed some distinguished academic economists and la%+ers to his administration, 2ut fe% high-ran<ing 'olitical scientists have 2een named" In fact, the editors of a recent 'oll of more than 2,/00 international relations e;'erts declared that Kthe !alls surrounding the ivor+ to%er have never seemed so high"K 5hile im'ortant #merican scholars such as =enr+ Lissinger and S2ignie% BrDeDins<i too< high-level foreign 'olic+ 'ositions in the 'ast, that 'ath has tended to 2e a one-%a+ street" &ot many top#ran,ed s holars of international relations are going into government, and even fe%er return to contri2ute to academic theor+" 7he 200A 7eaching, Research and International 4olic+ F7RI4G 'oll, 2+ the Institute for 7heor+ and 4ractice in International Relations, sho%ed that of the 2. scholars rated as 'roducing the most interesting scholarshi' during the 'ast five +ears, onl+ three had ever held 'olic+ 'ositions Ft%o in the !"S" government and one in the !nited 8ationsG" The fault for this gro%ing ga' lies not %ith the government 2ut !ith the a ademi s" S holars are paying less attention to ?uestions a2out ho! their !or, relates to the poli y !orld, and in man+ de'artments a focus on 'olic+ can hurt oneJs career" #dvancement comes faster for those %ho develo' mathematical models, ne% methodologies or theories e;'ressed in *argon that is unintelligi2le to 'olic+ma<ers" # surve+ of articles 'u2lished over the lifetime of the #merican 4olitical Science Revie% found that a2out one in five dealt %ith 'olic+ 'rescri'tion or criticism in the first half of the centur+, %hile onl+ a handful did so after 10C/" 6ditor 9ee Sigelman o2served in the *ournalJs centennial issue that Kif Js'ea<ing truth to 'o%erJ and contri2uting directl+ to 'u2lic dialogue a2out the merits and demerits of various courses of action %ere still num2ered among the functions of the 'rofession, one %ould not have <no%n it from leafing through its leading *ournal"K #s citiDens, a ademi s might "e onsidered to have an o2ligation to help improve on poli y ideas !hen they an" Horeover, su h engagement an enhan e and enrich a ademi !or,+ and thus the a"ility of a ademi s to tea h the next generation" #s former undersecretar+ of state Eavid 8e%som argued a decade ago, Kthe gro%ing !ithdra!al of universit+ s holars "ehind urtains of theory

and modeling !ould not have %ider significance if this trend did not raise 6uestions regarding the preparation of ne! generations and the future influen e of the a ademi ommunity on pu"li and offi ial per eptions of international issues and events" Tea hers plant seeds that shape the thin,ing of ea h ne! generationN this is 'ro2a2l+ the a ademi !orldNs most lasting ontri"ution"K Ret too often scholars teach theor+ and methods that are relevant to other academics 2ut not to the ma*orit+ of the students sitting in the classroom 2efore them" Some academics say that !hile the gro%ing gap "et!een theory and poli y may have osts for poli y, it has produ ed "etter so ial s ien e theory, and that this is more important than !hether su h s holarship is relevant" #lso, to some e;tent, the ga' is an inevita2le result of the gro%th and s'ecialiDation of <no%ledge" $e% 'eo'le can <ee' u' %ith their su2fields, much less all of social science" But the danger is that a ademi theori7ing !ill say more and more a"out less and less" 6ven %hen a ademi s su''lement their usual tric<le-do%n a''roach to 'olic+ 2+ %riting in *ournals, ne%s'a'ers or 2logs, or 2+ consulting for candidates or 'u2lic officials, the+ fa e man+ ompetitors for attention" Hore than 1,200 thin, tan,s in the !nited States provide not only ideas "ut also experts ready to omment or consult at a momentNs noti e" Some of these ne% transmission 2elts serve as translators and additional outlets for academic ideas, 2ut many add a "ias 'rovided 2+ their founders and funders" #s a grou', thin< tan<s are heterogeneous in sco'e, funding, ideolog+ and location, 2ut universities generally offer a more neutral vie!point. 5hile 'luralism of institutional 'ath%a+s is good for democrac+, the poli y pro ess is diminished "y the !ithdra!al of the a ademi ommunity" The solutions must ome via a reappraisal !ithin the a ademy itself" Ee'artments should give greater %eight to real-%orld relevance and im'act in hiring and 'romoting +oung scholars" Journals could 'lace greater %eight on relevance in evaluating su2missions" Studies of s'ecific regions deserve more attention" !niversities could facilitate interest in the %orld 2+ giving *unior facult+ mem2ers greater incentives to 'artici'ate in it" 7hat should include greater toleration of un'o'ular 'olic+ 'ositions" 1ne could multi'l+ such useful suggestions, 2ut +oung 'eo'le should not hold their 2reath %aiting for them to 2e im'lemented" If an+thing, the trends in academic life seem to 2e headed in the o''osite direction"

9. Perm do the plan and the non#mutually ex lusive parts of the alt ?. 0pistemology is not a prere6uisite Eavid (!en, !niversit+ of Southam'ton, Jul+ 9%%9, Re-orienting International
Relations( 1n 4ragmatism, 4luralism, and 4ractical Reasoning,& Hillennium O Journal of International Studies, 31"3, '" C..-C.C Commenting on the J'hiloso'hical turnJ in IR, 5dver remar<s that JUaV frenD+ for %ords li<e Ke'istemolog+K and Kontolog+K often signals this 'hiloso'hical turnJ, although he goes on to comment that these terms are often used loosel+"4 =o%ever, loosel+ de'lo+ed or not, it is clear that de"ates on erning ontology and epistemology play a entral role in the ontemporary $' theory !ars " In one res'ect, this is unsur'rising since it is a characteristic feature of the social sciences that 'eriods of disci'linar+ disorientation involve recourse to reflection on the 'hiloso'hical commitments of different theoretical a''roaches, and there is no dou2t that such reflection can 'la+ a valua2le role in ma<ing e;'licit the

commitments that characterise Fand hel' individuateG diverse theoretical 'ositions" Ret, such a 'hiloso'hical turn is not %ithout its dangers and I %ill 2riefl+ mention three 2efore turning to consider a confusion that has, I %ill suggest, hel'ed to 'romote the IR theor+ %ars 2+ motivating this 'hiloso'hical turn" The first danger !ith the philosophi al turn is that it has an in"uilt tenden y to prioritise issues of ontology and epistemology over explanatory and=or interpretive po!er as if the latter t!o !ere merely a simple fun tion of the former. 8ut !hile the explanatory and=or interpretive po!er of a theoreti al a ount is not !holly independent of its ontologi al and=or epistemologi al ommitments Fother%ise criticism of these features %ould not 2e a criticism that had an+ valueG, it is "y no means lear that it is+ in ontrast+ !holly dependent on these philosophi al ommitments" 7hus, for e;am'le, one need not 2e s+m'athetic to rational choice theor+ Uend 'age C..V to recognise that it can 'rovide 'o%erful accounts of certain <inds of 'ro2lems, such as the traged+ of the commons in %hich dilemmas of collective action are foregrounded" It ma+, of course, 2e the case that the advocates of rational choice theor+ cannot give a good account of %h+ this t+'e of theor+ is 'o%erful in accounting for this class of 'ro2lems Fi"e", ho% it is that the relevant actors come to e;hi2it features in these circumstances that a''ro;imate the assum'tions of rational choice theor+G and, if this is the case, it is a 'hiloso'hical %ea<ness>2ut this does not undermine the 'oint that, for a certain class of 'ro2lems, rational choice theor+ ma+ 'rovide the 2est account availa2le to us" In other %ords, !hile the riti al )udgement of theoreti al a ounts in terms of their ontologi al and=or epistemologi al sophisti ation is one ,ind of riti al )udgement+ it is not the only or even ne essarily the most important ,ind" The se ond danger run 2+ the 'hiloso'hical turn is that "e ause prioritisation of ontology and epistemology promotes theory# onstru tion from philosophi al first prin iples+ it ultivates a theory#driven rather than pro"lem#driven approa h to $'" 4ara'hrasing Ian Sha'iro, the 'oint can 2e 'ut li<e this( sin e it is the ase that there is al!ays a plurality of possi"le true des riptions of a given a tion+ event or phenomenon+ the hallenge is to de ide !hi h is the most apt in terms of getting a perspi uous grip on the a tion+ event or phenomenon in 6uestion given the purposes of the in6uiry N +et, from this standpoint+ Ntheory#driven !or, is part of a redu tionist programN in that it Ndi tates al!ays opting for the des ription that alls for the explanation that flo!s from the preferred model or theoryN". 7he *ustification offered for this strateg+ rests on the mista,en 2elief that it is necessar+ for social science 2ecause general e;'lanations are re?uired to characterise the classes of 'henomena studied in similar terms" =o%ever, as Sha'iro 'oints out, this is to misunderstand the enter'rise of science since J%hether there are general e;'lanations for classes of 'henomena is a ?uestion for social-scientific in?uir+, not to 2e 're*udged 2efore conducting that in?uir+J"C Horeover, this strategy easily slips into the promotion of the pursuit of generality over that of empiri al validity" The third danger is that the pre eding t!o om"ine to en ourage the formation of a parti ular image of dis iplinary de"ate in $' >%hat might 2e called Fonl+ slightl+ tongue in chee<G Nthe -ighlander vie!N>namel+, an image of !arring theoreti al approa hes !ith ea h+ despite o asional temporary ta ti al allian es+ dedi ated to the strategi a hievement of sovereignty over the dis iplinary field. $t en ourages this vie! "e ause the turn to+ and prioritisation of+ ontology and epistemology stimulates

Uend 'age C.CV the idea that there an only "e one theoreti al approa h !hi h gets things right+ namely+ the theoreti al approa h that gets its ontology and epistemology right. This image feeds "a , into $' exa er"ating the first and se ond dangers+ and so a potentially vi ious ir le arises"

F. 0mpiri al eviden e proves realism des ri"es $' O hange in a ademi or politi al ideologies !on*t hange it. John Eearsheimer, 7he 7raged+ of 3reat 4o%er 4olitics, 9%%1,
htt'())%%%"%%norton"com)catalog)fall01)00202.e;cer't"htm, accessed 11)14)02 7he o'timistsJ claim that securit+ com'etition and %ar among the great 'o%ers has 2een 2urned out of the s+stem is %rong" In fact, all of the ma)or states around the glo2e still are deeply a"out the "alan e of po!er and are destined to ompete for 'o%er among themselves for the foreseea2le future" Conse?uentl+, realism !ill offer the most 'o%erful e;'lanations of international politi s over the next entury, and this !ill "e true even if the de"ates among a ademi and 'olic+ elites are dominated "y non#realist theories" In short, the real !orld remains a realist !orld. States still fear ea h other and see, to gain po!er at each otherJs e;'ense, 2ecause international anar hy>the driving force 2ehind great-'o%er 2ehavior>did not hange !ith the end of the Cold War, and there are fe% signs that such change is li<el+ an+ time soon" States remain the prin ipal a tors in %orld 'olitics and there is still no night %atchman standing a2ove them" $or sure, the colla'se of the Soviet !nion caused a ma*or shift in the glo2al distri2ution of 'o%er" But it did not give rise to a change in the anarchic structure of the s+stem, and %ithout that <ind of 'rofound change, there is no reason to e;'ect the great 'o%ers to 2ehave much differentl+ in the ne% centur+ than the+ did in 'revious centuries" Indeed, onsidera"le eviden e from the 1HH%s indi ates that po!er politi s has not disappeared from 0urope and &ortheast Asia, the regions in %hich there are t%o or more great 'o%ers, as %ell as 'ossi2le great 'o%ers
such as 3erman+ and Ja'an" 7here is no ?uestion, ho%ever, that the com'etition for 'o%er over the 'ast decade has 2een lo%-<e+" Still, there is 'otential for intense securit+ com'etition among the great 'o%ers that might lead

the "est eviden e of that 'ossi2ilit+ is the fact that the United States maintains a2out one hundred thousand troops ea h in 0urope and in &ortheast Asia for the e;'licit purpose of ,eeping the ma)or states in ea h region at pea e.
to a ma*or %ar" 4ro2a2l+

5. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves J. Perm do "othD <. Perm do the alt G. ;ata is independent of theories O initial o"servations reate resear h and if their argument !as true there !ould "e thousands of proven theories. John 2as6ue7, 'rof of 'olis ci at ! Illinois at !r2ana-Cham'aign, 1HH5, 7he
4ost-4ositivist Ee2ate( Reconstructing Scientific 6n?uir+ and International Relations 7heor+ #fter 6nlightenmentBs $all,& 6d" Len Booth, in International Relations 7heor+ 7oda+,& 21/"

7he first area %here some 'ost-em'iricists 2elieve science has not 2een reconstructed is in still holding on to the XnaeveB 2elief in Xan inde'endent data 2aseB" 4ost-em'iricists rightl+ argue that facts do not sim'l+ e;ist in the %orld, 2ut are the 'roducts of conce'ts, %hich in turn are a function of theories, or at least theoretical assum'tions" $t is argued that fa ts are not independent of theories, and therefore annot "e used to test theories" Sin e theories reate fa ts, fa ts an al!ays "e found to support theories. These 'ost 'ositivist philosophi al laims in and of themselves are not definitive+ "ut they are often treated that !ay to dismiss empiri al findings " #t first 2lush, this anal+sis, 2ecause it can 2e ?uite so'histicated, a''ears 'ersuasive, 2ut on further ins'ection it is at 2est 'arado;ical" While it is true that the !ay !e see the !orld and !hat onstitutes its fa ts are a fun tion of the on epts !e employ+ this does not mean that no o"servations or 'uDDles existed "efore the theory. Theories and conce'ts often follo% o2servations and are meant to explain or account for a pattern" 7heorists are not so much interested in XfactsB 'er se as the+ are in the relationshi's 2et%een XfactsB Fvaria2les, etc"G" 4ost'ositivists argue, ho%ever, that 2ecause conce'ts create facts, an+ o'erational definition derived from conce'ts does not create an inde'endent data 2ase" #ll data are theor+-laden" #n+ good social scientists %ould agree %ith this, 2ut the %ord Xinde'endentB means different things to each side" $or the 'ost-em'iricist critic, it seems to mean that an+ data set %ill al%a+s 2e 2iased in favor of the theor+ that informed its collection" 7he im'lication here is that data sets %ill al%a+s 'roduce confirmation rather than falsification of an e;'lanation or theor+" #s =a%<es%orth 'uts it( If %hat is ta<en to 2e the X%orldB, %hat is understood in terms of X2rute dataB is itself theoreticall+ constituted Findeed, constituted 2+ the same theor+ that is undergoing the testG, then no conclusive dis'roof of a theor+ is li<el+" $or the inde'endent evidence u'on %hich falsification de'ends does not e;istN the availa2le evidence is 'reconstituted 2+ the same theoretical 'resu''ositions as the scientific theor+ under scrutin+" F1002, ''" 1C-1/G This vie! is %idel+ a epted "y politi al philosophers, and I venture to sa+ that one reason it is+ is that they have never really tried to test a hypothesis that !as in orre t " $f in fact this presumption !ere true, !e should have thousands of strong findings in international relations" $nstead !e have hardly any\ ;ata are not independent in the sense that they do not assure onfirmation of theories " ;ata "ases an "e onsidered independent if t!o ompeting explanations of the same "ehavior Fi"e" set of o2servationsG have the same han e of "eing re)e ted" We ,no! this is often the ase, "e ause, in international relations the most fre6uent finding is the null finding "

H. ;issident $' fails O it la ,s a me hanism to onvert theory into pra ti e O maintains same violent stru tures. #nna H" Agathangelou, Eir" 3lo2al Change Inst" #nd 5omenBs Studies 4rof W 12erlin, and 9"="H" 1ing, Inst" $or Social Studies W =ague, $all 1HH<, Studies in
4olitical 6conom+, v" .4, ' /-A Ret, ironicall+ if not tragicall+, dissident $' also paraly7es itself into non#a tion. While it hallenges the status 6uo+ dissident IR fails to transform it. Indeed, dissident $' laims that a . oherent/ paradigm or resear h program > even an alternative one > reprodu es the stifling 'arochialism and hidden po!er# mongering of sovereign scholarshi'" #n+ agenda of glo2al 'olitics informed 2+ critical social theor+ 'ers'ectives,& %rites Jim 3eorge must forgo the sim'le, al2eit

self-gratif+ing, o'tions inherent in read+-made alternative Realisms and confront the dangers, closures, 'arado;es, and com'licities associated %ith them" 0ven referen es to a .real !orld+ dissidents argue, repudiate the very meaning of dissiden e given their sovereign 'resum'tion of a universaliDa2le, testa2le Realit+" 5hat dissident scholarshi' o'ts for, instead, is a sense of disci'linar+ crisis that resonates %ith the effects of marginal and dissident movements in all sorts of other localities"& ;espite its eman ipatory intentions+ this approa h effe tively leaves the prevailing prison of sovereignty inta t . $t dou"ly in ar erates !hen dissident $' highlights the layers of po!er that oppress !ithout offering a heuristi + not to mention a program+ for eman ipatory a tion. Herel+ 'oliticiDing the supposedly non#politi al neither guides eman ipatory a tion nor guards it against demagoguery. #t 2est+ dissident $' san tions a deta hed riti ality rooted Fironicall+G in 5estern modernit+" Hichael Sha'iro, for instance, advises the dissident theorist to ta<e a critical distance& or 'osition offshoreB from %hich to see the 'ossi2ilit+ of change"& 8ut !hat "e omes of those !ho ,no! they are "urning in the hells of exploitation+ ra ism+ sexism+ starvation+ ivil !ar+ and the li,e !hile the esoteri dissident o"serves . riti ally/ from offshoreM What hope do they have of overthro!ing these sha ,les of sovereigntyM $n not ans!ering these 6uestions+ dissident IR ends u' re'roducing des'ite avo%als to the contrar+, the sovereign out ome of dis ourse divor ed from pra ti e+ analysis from poli y+ de onstru tion from re onstru tion+ parti ulars from universals+ and riti al theory from pro"lem#solving.

1%. ;isengagement from traditional politi s is the !orst in yni al leftist gar"age O our hypothesi7ing a"out the omplex inner#!or,ing of government is ,ey to reating spa e for the riti6ue
Eavid 6" McClean, 2001, 7he Cultural 9eft and the 9imits of Social =o'e,& #m" 4hil" Conf", %%%"american'hiloso'h+"org)archives)'astMconferenceM'rograms)'c2001)Eiscussion Q20'a'ers)davidMmcclean"htm
7he disease is the need for ela2orate theoretical KremediesK %ra''ed in neological and multi-s+lla2ic *argon" 7hese ela"orate theoreti al remedies are more >interesting,K to 2e sure, than the

pragmati ally settled 6uestions a2out %hat sha'e democrac+ should ta<e in various conte;ts, or %hether 'rivate 'ro'ert+ should 2e 'rotected 2+ the state, or regarding our 2asic human nature F des ri"ed, if not defined Fheaven for2idYG, in su h statements as >We donNt li,e to starve> and >We li,e to spea, our minds !ithout fear of deathK and K5e li<e to <ee' our children safe from
'overt+KG" #s Rort+ 'uts it, K5hen one of toda+Js academic leftists sa+s that some to'ic has 2een Jinade?uatel+ theoriDed,J +ou can 2e 'rett+ certain that he or she is going to drag in either 'hiloso'h+ of language, or 9acanian 's+choanal+sis, or some neo-Har;ist version of economic determinism" " " " These futile attempts to

philosophi7e oneNs !ay into politi al relevan e are a symptom of !hat happens !hen a 1eft retreats from a tivism and adopts a spe tatorial approa h to the pro"lems of its ountry. ;isengagement from pra ti e produ es theoreti al hallu inationsKFitalics mineG"F1G 1r as John Ee%e+ 'ut it in his 7he 8eed for
a Recover+ of 4hiloso'h+, KI 2elieve that 'hiloso'h+ in #merica %ill 2e lost 2et%een che%ing a historical cud long since reduced to %ood+ fi2er, or an a'ologetics for lost causes, " " " " or a scholastic, schematic formalism, unless it can someho% 2ring to consciousness #mericaJs o%n needs and its o%n im'licit 'rinci'le of successful action"K 7hose %ho suffer or have suffered from this disease Rort+ refers to as the Cultural 9eft, %hich left is *u;ta'osed to the 4olitical 9eft that Rort+ 'refers and 'refers for good reason" #nother attri2ute of the Cultural 9eft is that its mem2ers fanc+ themselves 'ure culture critics %ho vie% the successes of #merica and the 5est, rather than some of the 2ar2arous methods for achieving those successes, as mostl+ evil, and %ho vie% an+thing li<e national 'ride as e?uall+ evil even %hen that 'ride is tem'ered %ith the <no%ledge and admission of the nationJs shortcomings" In

the Cultural 1eft, in this countr+, too often dismiss Ameri an so iety as "eyond reform and redemption" #nd Rort+ correctl+ argues that this is a disastrous on lusion, i"e" disastrous for the Cultural 9eft" I thin< it ma+ also 2e disastrous for our social ho'es, as I %ill e;'lain" 1eftist Ameri an ulture riti s might put their onsidera"le talents to "etter use if they "ury some of their yni ism a2out #mericaJs social and 'olitical 'ros'ects and help forge pu"li and politi al possi"ilities in a s'irit of determination to,
other %ords, indeed, achieve our countr+ - the countr+ of Jefferson and LingN the countr+ of John Ee%e+ and Halcom ZN the countr+ of $ran<lin Roosevelt and Ba+ard Rustin, and of the later 3eorge 5allace and the later Barr+ 3old%ater" 7o invo<e the %ords of Ling, and %ith reference to the #merican societ+, the time is al%a+s ri'e to seiDe the o''ortunit+ to hel' create the K2eloved communit+,K one %oven %ith the thread of aga'e into a conce'tuall+ single +et diverse ta'estr+ that shoots for nothing less than a true intra-#merican cosmo'olitan ethos, one %herein 2oth same se; unions and faith-2ased initiatives %ill 2e a2le to 2e 'art of the same social realit+, one %herein 2usiness interests and the universit+ are not seen as 2elonging to t%o se'arate gala;ies 2ut as 'art of the same ans%er to the threat of social and ethical nihilism" We !ho fan y ourselves philosophers !ould do

!ell to reate from !ithin ourselves and from %ithin our ran<s a ne! ,ind of pu"li intelle tual !ho has "oth a hungry theoreti al mind and %ho is yet apa"le of seeing the need to move past high theory to other important 6uestions that are less "eda77ling and >interesting> "ut more important to the 'ros'ect of
our flourishing - ?uestions such as K=o% is it 'ossi2le to develo' a citiDenr+ that cherishes a certain he;is, one %hich 'riDes the character of the Samaritan on the road to Jericho almost more than an+ other,K or K=o% can %e s?uare the 'olitical dogma that undergirds the fantas+ of a missile defense s+stem %ith the need to treat #merica as 2ut one mem2er in a communit+ of nations under a Kla% of 'eo'les,K The ne! pu"li philosopher

might see, to understand la"or la! and military and trade theory and do trine as mu h as theories of surplus valueA the logi of international mar,ets and trade agreements as mu h as riti6ues of ommodifi ation+ and the politi s of omplexity as mu h as the politi s of po!er Fall of %hich can still 2e done from our arm chairs"G This means going do!n deep into the guts of our 6uotidian so ial institutions+ into the grimy pragmati details !here intelle tuals are loathe to d!ell "ut !here the offi ers and "ureau rats of those institutions ta,e diffi ult and often unpleasant+ imperfe t de isions that affe t other peoplesN lives+ and it means ma,ing honest attempts to truly understand ho! those institutions a tually fun tion in the a tual !orld "efore ho!ling for their overthro! ommen es" This might help ,eep us from "eing sla''ed do%n in de"ates "y true poli y pros !ho a tually <no% !hat they are tal,ing a"out "ut !ho la , a!areness of the dogmati assumptions from !hi h they pro eed+ and !ho have not yet found a good reason to listen to *argon#riddled lectures from philosophers and ulture riti s !ith their sno"ish disrespe t for the so# alled >managerial lass.>

9AC AT: -eidegger I

1. The "allot should evaluate ompeting politi al options a. 'e7 8asis ### predi ta"le stasis on the topi !hi h out!eighs ". Unlimits ### evaluating reps is infinitely regressive and means !e ould never !in . Aff hoi eD !e don*t endorse epistemology impa ts so !e shouldn*t have to de"ate them d. Their I self marginali7es itself out of politi s and is therefore useless Jose'h &ye, 'rofessor at =arvard !niversit+ and former dean of the =arvard Lenned+ School, 4-13-9%%H, 5ashington 4ost,
htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)%'d+n)content)article)2000)04)12)#R20000412022C0M'f"html 4-13-00 4resident 12ama has a''ointed some distinguished academic economists and la%+ers to his administration, 2ut fe% high-ran<ing 'olitical scientists have 2een named" In fact, the editors of a recent 'oll of more than 2,/00 international relations e;'erts declared that Kthe !alls surrounding the ivor+ to%er have never seemed so high"K 5hile im'ortant #merican scholars such as =enr+ Lissinger and S2ignie% BrDeDins<i too< high-level foreign 'olic+ 'ositions in the 'ast, that 'ath has tended to 2e a one-%a+ street" &ot many top#ran,ed s holars of international relations are going into government, and even fe%er return to contri2ute to academic theor+" 7he 200A 7eaching, Research and International 4olic+ F7RI4G 'oll, 2+ the Institute for 7heor+ and 4ractice in International Relations, sho%ed that of the 2. scholars rated as 'roducing the most interesting scholarshi' during the 'ast five +ears, onl+ three had ever held 'olic+ 'ositions Ft%o in the !"S" government and one in the !nited 8ationsG" The fault for this gro%ing ga' lies not %ith the government 2ut !ith the a ademi s" S holars are paying less attention to ?uestions a2out ho! their !or, relates to the poli y !orld, and in man+ de'artments a focus on 'olic+ can hurt oneJs career" #dvancement comes faster for those %ho develo' mathematical models, ne% methodologies or theories e;'ressed in *argon that is unintelligi2le to 'olic+ma<ers" # surve+ of articles 'u2lished over the lifetime of the #merican 4olitical Science Revie% found that a2out one in five dealt %ith 'olic+ 'rescri'tion or criticism in the first half of the centur+, %hile onl+ a handful did so after 10C/" 6ditor 9ee Sigelman o2served in the *ournalJs centennial issue that Kif Js'ea<ing truth to 'o%erJ and contri2uting directl+ to 'u2lic dialogue a2out the merits and demerits of various courses of action %ere still num2ered among the functions of the 'rofession, one %ould not have <no%n it from leafing through its leading *ournal"K #s citiDens, a ademi s might "e onsidered to have an o2ligation to help improve on poli y ideas !hen they an" Horeover, su h engagement an enhan e and enrich a ademi !or,+ and thus the a"ility of a ademi s to tea h the next generation" #s former undersecretar+ of state Eavid 8e%som argued a decade ago, Kthe gro%ing !ithdra!al of universit+ s holars "ehind urtains of theory

and modeling !ould not have %ider significance if this trend did not raise 6uestions regarding the preparation of ne! generations and the future influen e of the a ademi ommunity on pu"li and offi ial per eptions of international issues and events" Tea hers plant seeds that shape the thin,ing of ea h ne! generationN this is 'ro2a2l+ the a ademi !orldNs most lasting ontri"ution"K Ret too often scholars teach theor+ and methods that are relevant to other academics 2ut not to the ma*orit+ of the students sitting in the classroom 2efore them" Some academics say that !hile the gro%ing gap "et!een theory and poli y may have osts for poli y, it has produ ed "etter so ial s ien e theory, and that this is more important than !hether su h s holarship is relevant" #lso, to some e;tent, the ga' is an inevita2le result of the gro%th and s'ecialiDation of <no%ledge" $e% 'eo'le can <ee' u' %ith their su2fields, much less all of social science" But the danger is that a ademi theori7ing !ill say more and more a"out less and less" 6ven %hen a ademi s su''lement their usual tric<le-do%n a''roach to 'olic+ 2+ %riting in *ournals, ne%s'a'ers or 2logs, or 2+ consulting for candidates or 'u2lic officials, the+ fa e man+ ompetitors for attention" Hore than 1,200 thin, tan,s in the !nited States provide not only ideas "ut also experts ready to omment or consult at a momentNs noti e" Some of these ne% transmission 2elts serve as translators and additional outlets for academic ideas, 2ut many add a "ias 'rovided 2+ their founders and funders" #s a grou', thin< tan<s are heterogeneous in sco'e, funding, ideolog+ and location, 2ut universities generally offer a more neutral vie!point. 5hile 'luralism of institutional 'ath%a+s is good for democrac+, the poli y pro ess is diminished "y the !ithdra!al of the a ademi ommunity" The solutions must ome via a reappraisal !ithin the a ademy itself" Ee'artments should give greater %eight to real-%orld relevance and im'act in hiring and 'romoting +oung scholars" Journals could 'lace greater %eight on relevance in evaluating su2missions" Studies of s'ecific regions deserve more attention" !niversities could facilitate interest in the %orld 2+ giving *unior facult+ mem2ers greater incentives to 'artici'ate in it" 7hat should include greater toleration of un'o'ular 'olic+ 'ositions" 1ne could multi'l+ such useful suggestions, 2ut +oung 'eo'le should not hold their 2reath %aiting for them to 2e im'lemented" If an+thing, the trends in academic life seem to 2e headed in the o''osite direction"

9. Perm do the plan and the non#mutually ex lusive parts of the alt ?. Te hnologi al thought is inevita"le and ne essary for a hieving a ommuni ative state.
#ndre% Feenberg, Chair of 4hiloso'h+ and 7echnolog+ at S$!" 1996" $rom 6ssentialism to Constructivism( 4hiloso'h+ of 7echnolog+ at the Crossroads& htt'())%%%"agora"?c"ca)te;tes)feen2erg"html
$rom this anti-essentialist stand'oint, our form of modern societ+ cannot 2e the untranscenda2le horiDon of technical 'ossi2ilities, defining for modernit+ in general" But neither can %e conceive of a general deglo2aliDation of modern societies, a s'litting u' of modernit+ into incommunica2le varieties" The shared te hni al

heritage provides %hat might 2e called a K'ractical universality> that has imposed itself on a planetary s ale" &o modern so iety an forego "asi te hni al dis overies su h as anti"ioti s, 'lastics or ele tri ity+ and none an !ithdra! from %orld%ide ommuni ation net!or,s. The ost of an entirely independent path of develo'ment is *ust too high" But 2oth in the advanced and the develo'ing countries, significant
innovations are 'ossi2le %ith res'ect to %hat has 2een the main line of 'rogress u' to no%" 7he terrain of 'ractical

universalit+ is accessi2le from man+ stand'oints for man+ 'ur'oses" It is not a destin+, 2ut the 'lace on %hich destinies can 2e %or<ed out" It first emerged in the ca'italist 5est around a 'articular 'ano'l+ of technologies and rational s+stems" 7hese intentionall+ deem'hasiDed most secondar+ instrumentaliDations %ith conse?uences %e no% e;'erience as cultural homogeniDation, social anomie and environmental crisis" 7he threat of technolog+ is due to this 'articular realiDation of its 'otential" 7his conclusion invites us to consider the 'ossi2ilit+ of an alternative form of technical rationalit+ that %ould integrate the secondar+ instrumentaliDations more full+ through ne% concretiDations" 1n this 2asis, I have argued else%here for a reform of modern technolog+ to incor'orate %or<ersJ s<ills, human communication, and environmental limits into its ver+ structure F$een2erg, 1001( cha'" AG" Similar arguments could 2e made %ith res'ect to the 'ossi2ilit+ of culturall+ s'ecific technological configurations F$een2erg, 100.( cha'" 0G" 7he sco'e and significance of such change is 'otentiall+ enormous" Te hni al

hoi es esta"lish the hori7ons of daily life. These hoi es define a >!orld> !ithin !hi h the spe ifi alternatives !e thin, of as 'ur'oses, goals, uses, emerge. They also define the su")e t !ho hooses among the alternatives: %e ma<e ourselves in ma<ing the %orld through technolog+" Thus fundamental te hnologi al hange is self#referential" #t issue is 2ecoming, not having" 7he goal is to define a %a+ of life, an ideal of a2undance,
and a human t+'e, not *ust to o2tain more goods in the 'revailing socio-economic s+stem" #s 7err+ 5inograd argues, technological designing is ontological designing F5inograd and $lores, 10A/( 1C3G"

F. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves 5. Perm do "othD The am"ivalent nature of te hnology must "e em"ra ed in some forms to a hieve the multitude of potentialities that form a progressive approa h to "eing and the !orld
#ndre% Feenberg, Chair of 4hiloso'h+ and 7echnolog+ at S$!" 1996" $rom 6ssentialism to Constructivism( 4hiloso'h+ of 7echnolog+ at the Crossroads& htt'())%%%"agora"?c"ca)te;tes)feen2erg"html
7he idea of a Kconcrete technolog+,K %hich includes human 2eings and nature in its ver+ structure, contradicts the common'lace notion that techni?ue Kcon?uersK its o2*ects" In SimondonJs theor+ the most advanced forms of 'rogress consist in the creation of com'le; s+nergies of technical and natural forces through advances that incor'orate the %ider conte;ts of human and environmental needs into the structure of technical s+stems" 5hile there is no strictl+ technological im'erative dictating such an a''roach, strategies of concretiDation could em2race these conte;ts as the+ do others in the course of technical develo'ment" Where these ontexts in lude

environmental onsiderations, the te hnology emerges as reintegrated or adapted to natureA !here they in lude the apa ities of the human operators+ the te hnology progresses "eyond des,illing to "e ome the "asis for vo ational self#development and parti ipatory management. ;emands for environmentally sound te hnology, and humane, democratic and safe %or<, are thus not extrinsi to the logi of te hnology+ "ut respond to the reflexive tenden y of te hni al development to onstru t synergisti totalities of natural+ human+ and te hni al elements " These onsiderations allo! us to identify a type of dire tional development that is 2oth te hni ally and normatively progressive" 7he normative standards of that develo'ment are
immanentl+ derived from the resistances evo<ed 2+ the technical 'rocess itself" 7hat connection is clear %here technical advance su''resses conte;tual features of nature and social life that the individuals mo2iliDe to defend or to incor'orate into im'roved designs through secondar+ instrumentaliDations" 7he theor+ of concretiDation offers a 2etter account of the 2ias of technolog+ than that 'ro'osed 2+ su2stantivism" 7his 2ias is not determined once and for all 2+ the essentialiDed 'rimar+ instrumentaliDation as in =eidegger and =a2ermas, 2ut also has a com'le; social dimension" 7o 2e sure, te hnology may enframe and oloni7eA "ut it may also

li"erate repressed potentialities of the life%orld that !ould other!ise have remained su"merged. It is thus essentiall+ am2ivalent, availa2le for ver+ different t+'es of develo'ment F21G" 7he evidence of this is all around us" $t has ta,en a certain theoretical o"stina y to ignore that evidence and to a"stra t from the eman ipatory impli ations of te hnology in onstruing its essen e" 7hat o2stinac+ nevertheless had its *ustification as a

reaction against the d+sto'ian 'olitics of technolog+ of the 'ost%ar 'eriod" #s technological issues are increasingl+ contested toda+, the d+sto'ian ris< fades" $t is no longer suffi ient to hallenge the >one#

dimensionality> of >te hnologi al thin,ingA> !hat is needed is an a of te hnologyNs am"ivalen e as a lo us of so ial hange"

ount

J. Perm do the alt <. ;isengagement from traditional politi s is the !orst in yni al leftist gar"age O our hypothesi7ing a"out the omplex inner#!or,ing of government is ,ey to reating spa e for the riti6ue
Eavid 6" McClean, 2001, 7he Cultural 9eft and the 9imits of Social =o'e,& #m" 4hil" Conf", %%%"american'hiloso'h+"org)archives)'astMconferenceM'rograms)'c2001)Eiscussion Q20'a'ers)davidMmcclean"htm

7he disease is the need for ela2orate theoretical KremediesK %ra''ed in neological and multi-s+lla2ic *argon" 7hese

ela"orate theoreti al remedies are more >interesting,K to 2e sure, than the pragmati ally settled 6uestions a2out %hat sha'e democrac+ should ta<e in various conte;ts, or %hether 'rivate 'ro'ert+ should 2e 'rotected 2+ the state, or regarding our 2asic human nature F des ri"ed, if not defined Fheaven for2idYG, in su h statements as >We donNt li,e to starve> and >We li,e to spea, our minds !ithout fear of deathK and K5e li<e to <ee' our children safe from
'overt+KG" #s Rort+ 'uts it, K5hen one of toda+Js academic leftists sa+s that some to'ic has 2een Jinade?uatel+ theoriDed,J +ou can 2e 'rett+ certain that he or she is going to drag in either 'hiloso'h+ of language, or 9acanian 's+choanal+sis, or some neo-Har;ist version of economic determinism" " " "

These futile attempts to philosophi7e oneNs !ay into politi al relevan e are a symptom of !hat happens !hen a 1eft retreats from a tivism and adopts a spe tatorial approa h to the pro"lems of its ountry. ;isengagement from pra ti e produ es theoreti al hallu inationsKFitalics mineG"F1G 1r as John Ee%e+ 'ut it in his 7he 8eed for

a Recover+ of 4hiloso'h+, KI 2elieve that 'hiloso'h+ in #merica %ill 2e lost 2et%een che%ing a historical cud long since reduced to %ood+ fi2er, or an a'ologetics for lost causes, " " " " or a scholastic, schematic formalism, unless it can someho% 2ring to consciousness #mericaJs o%n needs and its o%n im'licit 'rinci'le of successful action"K 7hose %ho suffer or have suffered from this disease Rort+ refers to as the Cultural 9eft, %hich left is *u;ta'osed to the 4olitical 9eft that Rort+ 'refers and 'refers for good reason" #nother attri2ute of the Cultural 9eft is that its mem2ers fanc+ themselves 'ure culture critics %ho vie% the successes of #merica and the 5est, rather than some of the 2ar2arous methods for achieving those successes, as mostl+ evil, and %ho vie% an+thing li<e national 'ride as e?uall+ evil even %hen that 'ride is tem'ered %ith the <no%ledge and admission of the nationJs shortcomings" In

the Cultural 1eft, in this countr+, too often dismiss Ameri an so iety as "eyond reform and redemption" #nd Rort+ correctl+ argues that this is a disastrous on lusion, i"e" disastrous for the Cultural 9eft" I thin< it ma+ also 2e disastrous for our social ho'es, as I %ill e;'lain" 1eftist Ameri an ulture riti s might put their onsidera"le talents to "etter use if they "ury some of their yni ism a2out #mericaJs social and 'olitical 'ros'ects and help forge pu"li and politi al possi"ilities in a s'irit of determination to,
other %ords,

indeed, achieve our countr+ - the countr+ of Jefferson and LingN the countr+ of John Ee%e+ and Halcom ZN the countr+ of $ran<lin Roosevelt and Ba+ard Rustin, and of the later 3eorge 5allace and the later Barr+ 3old%ater" 7o invo<e the %ords of Ling, and %ith reference to the #merican societ+, the time is al%a+s ri'e to seiDe the o''ortunit+ to hel' create the K2eloved communit+,K one %oven %ith the thread of aga'e into a conce'tuall+ single +et diverse ta'estr+ that shoots for nothing less than a true intra-#merican cosmo'olitan ethos, one %herein 2oth same se; unions and faith-2ased initiatives %ill 2e a2le to 2e 'art of the same social realit+, one %herein 2usiness interests and the universit+ are not seen as 2elonging to t%o se'arate gala;ies 2ut as 'art of the same ans%er to

We !ho fan y ourselves philosophers !ould do !ell to reate from !ithin ourselves and from %ithin our ran<s a ne! ,ind of pu"li intelle tual !ho has "oth a hungry theoreti al mind and %ho is yet apa"le of seeing the need to move past high theory to other important 6uestions that are less "eda77ling and >interesting> "ut more important to the 'ros'ect of
the threat of social and ethical nihilism" our flourishing - ?uestions such as K=o% is it 'ossi2le to develo' a citiDenr+ that cherishes a certain he;is, one

%hich 'riDes the character of the Samaritan on the road to Jericho almost more than an+ other,K or K=o% can %e s?uare the 'olitical dogma that undergirds the fantas+ of a missile defense s+stem %ith the need to treat #merica as 2ut one mem2er in a communit+ of nations under a Kla% of 'eo'les,K The ne! pu"li philosopher

might see, to understand la"or la! and military and trade theory and do trine as mu h as theories of surplus valueA the logi of international mar,ets and trade agreements as mu h as riti6ues of ommodifi ation+ and the politi s of omplexity as mu h as the politi s of po!er Fall of %hich can still 2e done from our arm chairs"G This means going do!n deep into the guts of our 6uotidian so ial institutions+ into the grimy pragmati details !here intelle tuals are loathe to d!ell "ut !here the offi ers and "ureau rats of those institutions ta,e diffi ult and often unpleasant+ imperfe t de isions that affe t other peoplesN lives+ and it means ma,ing honest attempts to truly understand ho! those institutions a tually fun tion in the a tual !orld "efore ho!ling for their overthro! ommen es" This might help ,eep us from "eing sla''ed do%n in de"ates "y true poli y pros !ho a tually <no% !hat they are tal,ing a"out "ut !ho la , a!areness of the dogmati assumptions from !hi h they pro eed+ and !ho have not yet found a good reason to listen to *argon#riddled lectures from philosophers and ulture riti s !ith their sno"ish disrespe t for the so# alled >managerial lass.>

G. -eidegger !as definitely a &a7i and is an independent reason to re)e t the ,riti, #le; Steiner, %orld socialist %e2 site, the case of martin =eidegger 'hiloso'her and naDi, 9%%%, htt'())%s%s"org)articles)2000)a'r2000)heid-a03"shtml
;o umentary eviden e exists that -eidegger expressed sympathy for the &a7is as early as 1H?9" 3iven his 'revious histor+, this should not come as a shoc<" $mmediately follo!ing -itlerNs sei7ure of po!er+ -eidegger )oined the &a7is. -eidegger !as a dues#paying mem"er of the 8SE#4 Fthe &a7i party4 from 1033 to 104." -e "e ame the re tor of Frei"urg University in #'ril of 1033, three months after -itler ame to po!er. -is infamous inaugural address %as delivered on Ha+ 2/, 1033"
=eidegger a'ologists have claimed that this address re'resented an attem't to assert the autonom+ of the universit+ against the 8aDisJ effort to su2ordinate the sciences to their reactionar+ doctrines" In fact, the address

!as a all to arms for the student "ody and the fa ulty to serve the ne! &a7i regime. $t ele"rates the &a7i as endan y as the march our 'eo'le has 2egun into its future histor+"& -eidegger identifies the German nation !ith the &a7i state in prose that spea,s of .the histori al mission of the German 2ol,+ a 2ol, that ,no!s itself in its state./ 7here is even a reference to the fascist ideolog+ of Doological
determinism %hen =eidegger invo<es the 'o%er to 'reserve, in the dee'est %a+, the strengths Uof the #ol)V %hich are rooted in soil and 2lood"&

H. Fo using on "eing totally misses the point 6mmanuel 1evinas, 9ithuanian-2orn $rench Je%ish 'hiloso'her and 7almudic commentator, =eidegger student, 9%%%, 3-d, Eeath, and 7ime, '".A-.0
$s meaning al!ays an event of "eing, 7o 2e>is this the significance of meaning, Should %e sa+ that humanity, ta<en sim'l+ as a meaningful order, that reason, as meaning or rationalit+ or intelligi2ilit+, or as s'irit, and that 'hiloso'h+, ta<en as mans e;'ression> are all redu i"le to ontology, 7he ?uestion mar< of ever+ ?uestion comes from the ?uestion( 5hat does 2eing
=ere a radical ?uestion has to 2e 'osed" signif+, F7his, =eidegger assertsN there is no other ?uestion for him, even if this ?uestion immediatel+ 2ecame an;iet+ a2out death"G

$s everything that comes into 'la+ in "eing, itself 2eing, F7hrough this ?uestion %e contest the first 'ages of Being and 7ime"G ;oes everything that is e;amined in man ome do!n to

"e, 1r indeed, is there not a more interrogative 6uestion 2ehind this or the alternative "et!een to "e and not to "eM ;oes death ome do!n only to tying the ,not of the intrigue of "eing, Eoes death not have its eminent meaning in the death of others,
the ?uestion( 5hat is it to ?uestion, such that death, des'ite its certitude, %ould not 2e reduced to the ?uestion, %here it signifies K2+ %a+ ofK an event that cannot 2e reduced to its 2eing, In this 2eing that %e are, do KthingsK not come to 'ass Use 'roduit-il'as des KchosesKV in %hich our 2eing does not count as first, #nd if humanity

is not exhausted in the servi e of "eing+ then does not my responsi"ility for another Fin its em'hatic sense( m+ res'onsi2ilit+ for the death of another, m+ res'onsi2ilit+ as a survivorG rise up "ehind the 6uestion: What is it to "eM Eoes it not arise 2ehind the an;iet+ over m+
o%n death, #nd %ould time then not call for a different inter'retation of the 'ro*ection to%ard the future,

1%. A epting -eidegger*s epistemology onstitutes a total re)e tion of the (ther that allo!s the geno ide of millions in gas ovens 6mmanuel 1evinas, 9ithuanian-2orn $rench Je%ish 'hiloso'her and 7almudic commentator, =eidegger student, 9%%%, 3-d, Eeath, and 7ime, '"1C-10
relation !ith the death of the other and !ith our o!n death leads us to some rather singular propositions that !e shall have to deepen today" 7he relation %ith the death of the other is not a ,no!ledge UsavoirV a2out the death of the other, nor the e;'erience of that death in its parti ular !ay of annihilating "eing Fif,
7he descri'tion of the as is commonl+ thought, the event of this death is reduci2le to this annihilationG" 7here is no <no%ledge of this e;ce'tional relation FKe;-ce'tionK meaning here to gras' and to set outside the seriesG"

This annihilation is not phenomenal, nor does it give rise to an+thing li<e a coincidence of consciousness %ith it F+et those are the t%o dimensions of <no%ledgeG" From the death of the other+ pure ,no!ledge Fi"e", lived e;'erience UvecuV, coincidenceG retains only the external appearan es of a pro ess Fof
immo2iliDationG %here2+ someone, %ho u' until then e;'ressed himself, comes to an end" 7he ra''ort or connection %e have %ith death in its e;-ce'tion >and %hatever its signification

relative to "eing and to

nothingness might 2e, death is an ex eption>%hich confers u'on death its de'th, is neither a seeing nor even an aiming UviseeV" FIt is neither to see 2eing, as in 4lato, nor to aim at nothingness, as in =eidegger"G # 'urel+ emotional ra''ort, moving us %ith an emotion that is not made u' of the re'ercussion on our sensi2ilit+ and our intellect of a 'revious <no%ledge.

$t is an emotion+ a movement+ a dis6uietude !ithin the un,no!n, 1C Eeath of the 1ther and H+ 1%n i* 7his emotion does not have, as =usserl had
UHa;V Scheler thin<s>!hi

%anted, re'resentation for its 2asis F=usserl %as the first to introduce a meaning into emotion, 2ut he still ma<es this meaning rest u'on <no%ledgeG" But neither %ould it 2e animated 2+ a s'ecificall+ a;iological intentionalit+> as

h thus preserves for emotion a dis losive opening that is spe ifi ally ontologi al" $or Scheler, emotion is oriented from the outset 2+ means of a value, 2ut it
'reserves an o'ening, it is still understood as a revelation Fof valueGN it therefore still 'reserves the ontological structure" =ere+ !e are on erned !ith an affe tivity !ithout intentionality Fas Hichel =enr+ clearl+ noted in his 6ssence of HanifestationG"J 8evertheless, the emotional state descri2ed here differs radicall+ from the inertia of the sensi2le state of %hich a sensualist em'iricism s'o<e" 8onintentionalit+>and +et a static nonstate"2 5ould not the dis-?uiet of emotion 2e the ?uestion that, in the nearness of death, is

an emotion as a 6uestion that does not ontain, in the 'osing of the ?uestion, the elements of its o!n response" # ?uestion that attaches to that dee'er relation Ura''ortV to the
'recisel+ at the 'oint of 2eing 2orn, #n emotion in the sense of a deference to%ard deathN in other %ords, of the other UlautreV" # fear or a courage, 2ut also,

infinite, %hich is time Ftime understood as a relation to the infiniteG" #n emotional relation Ura''ortV %ith the death

"eyond the ompassion for and solidarity !ith the other+ responsi"ility for him in the un,no!n" But this un<no%n is not, in its

turn, o2*ectified and thematiDed, aimed at or seenN it is rather a dis?uietude %herein an interrogation interrogates itself +et is not converti2le into a res'onseN3 a dis?uietude %herein the res'onse is reduced to the res'onsi2ilit+ of the ?uestioning itself Udu ?uestionnantV or of the one %ho ?uestions Udu ?uestionneurV" 7he other concerns me as a

$n every death is sho!n the nearness of the neigh"or+ and the responsi"ility of the survivor+ in the form of a res'onsi2ilit+ that the a''roach of 'ro;imit+
neigh2or U'rochainV"

U'ro;imiteV moves or agitates Umeut ou emeutV"# # dis?uietude that is not thematiDation, not intentionalit+, even if

this latter %as signitive" This is a dis6uietude that therefore resists all appearing , all 'henomenal as'ects, as though emotion 'assed 2+ %a+ of the ?uestion, %ithout encountering the slightest ?uiddit+, to%ard iA E6#7= #8E 7IH6 that acuit+ of death, and instituted an un<no%n that is not 'urel+ negative 2ut rather in nearness %ithout <no%ledge" It is as though the 6uestion !ent "eyond appearing

forms+ "eyond "eing and appearing+ and+ pre isely in this passing+ ould "e alled profound" Thus the 6uestion of the meaning of the emotional is again posed here+ the 6uestion that -eidegger taught us to redu e to the onfrontation !ith nothingness in anxiety" 7his irreduci2ilit+ of the emotional sho%s itself
even in the Socratic effort made in the 4hIdo, a dialogue that tends to recogniDe in death the ver+ s'lendor of 2eing Fdeath there is 2eing stri''ed of ever+ veilN 2eing such as it is 'romised to the 'hiloso'her and %hich 2ursts o'en in its divinit+ onl+ %ith the end of cor'oreit+G" 6ven there, ho%ever, the a''roach of the d+ing Socrates does not lose its affective resonance, %hereas the recognition, in the 'rocess of d+ing, of this announcement of 2eing FSocrates %ill finall+ 2e visi2le in deathG %ould 2e the rational discourse of <no%ledge and theor+" 7his is the %hole intent of the 4hado: theory is stronger than the anxiety over death" 8ut even in this dialogue there is the e;cess of emotion( Apollodorus !eeps more than the others N he %ee's 2e+ond measure> and the+ must send the %omen a%a+" 5hat is the meaning of this affectivit+ and these tears, 4erha's %e should not interpret this emotion straighta!ay as intentionality and

redu e it there"y to an opening onto nothingness , or onto 2eing in its connection %ith nothingnessN %e should not redu e it to the opening of an ontologi al dimension.
Just as the <inshi' of affectivit+ and re'resentation in =usserl has 2een 'laced in ?uestion, %e must as< ourselves %hether all affectivit+ goes 2ac< to the an;iet+ understood as the imminence of nothingnessN that is, %hether affectivit+ is a%a<ened onl+ in a 2eing 'ersevering in its 2eing Fthe conatusG, and %hether the conatus is the humanit+ of man" We should as, ourselves !hether the humanity of man is his

havingto"e" #nd this leads inevita2l+ to a discussion %ith -eidegger" If emotion is not rooted in an;iet+, the ontologi al meaning of emotion is put "a , in 6uestion and+ "eyond this+ the role of intentionality. It is 'erha's not necessar+ to maintain that intentionalit+ is the ultimate secret of the 's+che" Eeath of the 1ther and H+ 1%n 10 Time is not the limitation of "eing "ut its relationship !ith infinity. ;eath is not annihilation "ut the 6uestion that is ne essary.

9AC AT: 0mpire I

1. The "allot should evaluate ompeting politi al options a. 'e7 8asis ### predi ta"le stasis on the topi !hi h out!eighs ". Unlimits ### evaluating reps is infinitely regressive and means !e ould never !in . Aff hoi eD !e don*t endorse epistemology impa ts so !e shouldn*t have to de"ate them d. Their I self marginali7es itself out of politi s and is therefore useless Jose'h &ye, 'rofessor at =arvard !niversit+ and former dean of the =arvard Lenned+ School, 4-13-9%%H, 5ashington 4ost,
htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)%'d+n)content)article)2000)04)12)#R20000412022C0M'f"html 4-13-00 4resident 12ama has a''ointed some distinguished academic economists and la%+ers to his administration, 2ut fe% high-ran<ing 'olitical scientists have 2een named" In fact, the editors of a recent 'oll of more than 2,/00 international relations e;'erts declared that Kthe !alls surrounding the ivor+ to%er have never seemed so high"K 5hile im'ortant #merican scholars such as =enr+ Lissinger and S2ignie% BrDeDins<i too< high-level foreign 'olic+ 'ositions in the 'ast, that 'ath has tended to 2e a one-%a+ street" &ot many top#ran,ed s holars of international relations are going into government, and even fe%er return to contri2ute to academic theor+" 7he 200A 7eaching, Research and International 4olic+ F7RI4G 'oll, 2+ the Institute for 7heor+ and 4ractice in International Relations, sho%ed that of the 2. scholars rated as 'roducing the most interesting scholarshi' during the 'ast five +ears, onl+ three had ever held 'olic+ 'ositions Ft%o in the !"S" government and one in the !nited 8ationsG" The fault for this gro%ing ga' lies not %ith the government 2ut !ith the a ademi s" S holars are paying less attention to ?uestions a2out ho! their !or, relates to the poli y !orld, and in man+ de'artments a focus on 'olic+ can hurt oneJs career" #dvancement comes faster for those %ho develo' mathematical models, ne% methodologies or theories e;'ressed in *argon that is unintelligi2le to 'olic+ma<ers" # surve+ of articles 'u2lished over the lifetime of the #merican 4olitical Science Revie% found that a2out one in five dealt %ith 'olic+ 'rescri'tion or criticism in the first half of the centur+, %hile onl+ a handful did so after 10C/" 6ditor 9ee Sigelman o2served in the *ournalJs centennial issue that Kif Js'ea<ing truth to 'o%erJ and contri2uting directl+ to 'u2lic dialogue a2out the merits and demerits of various courses of action %ere still num2ered among the functions of the 'rofession, one %ould not have <no%n it from leafing through its leading *ournal"K #s citiDens, a ademi s might "e onsidered to have an o2ligation to help improve on poli y ideas !hen they an" Horeover, su h engagement an enhan e and enrich a ademi !or,+ and thus the a"ility of a ademi s to tea h the next generation" #s former undersecretar+ of state Eavid 8e%som argued a decade ago, Kthe gro%ing !ithdra!al of universit+ s holars "ehind urtains of theory

and modeling !ould not have %ider significance if this trend did not raise 6uestions regarding the preparation of ne! generations and the future influen e of the a ademi ommunity on pu"li and offi ial per eptions of international issues and events" Tea hers plant seeds that shape the thin,ing of ea h ne! generationN this is 'ro2a2l+ the a ademi !orldNs most lasting ontri"ution"K Ret too often scholars teach theor+ and methods that are relevant to other academics 2ut not to the ma*orit+ of the students sitting in the classroom 2efore them" Some academics say that !hile the gro%ing gap "et!een theory and poli y may have osts for poli y, it has produ ed "etter so ial s ien e theory, and that this is more important than !hether su h s holarship is relevant" #lso, to some e;tent, the ga' is an inevita2le result of the gro%th and s'ecialiDation of <no%ledge" $e% 'eo'le can <ee' u' %ith their su2fields, much less all of social science" But the danger is that a ademi theori7ing !ill say more and more a"out less and less" 6ven %hen a ademi s su''lement their usual tric<le-do%n a''roach to 'olic+ 2+ %riting in *ournals, ne%s'a'ers or 2logs, or 2+ consulting for candidates or 'u2lic officials, the+ fa e man+ ompetitors for attention" Hore than 1,200 thin, tan,s in the !nited States provide not only ideas "ut also experts ready to omment or consult at a momentNs noti e" Some of these ne% transmission 2elts serve as translators and additional outlets for academic ideas, 2ut many add a "ias 'rovided 2+ their founders and funders" #s a grou', thin< tan<s are heterogeneous in sco'e, funding, ideolog+ and location, 2ut universities generally offer a more neutral vie!point. 5hile 'luralism of institutional 'ath%a+s is good for democrac+, the poli y pro ess is diminished "y the !ithdra!al of the a ademi ommunity" The solutions must ome via a reappraisal !ithin the a ademy itself" Ee'artments should give greater %eight to real-%orld relevance and im'act in hiring and 'romoting +oung scholars" Journals could 'lace greater %eight on relevance in evaluating su2missions" Studies of s'ecific regions deserve more attention" !niversities could facilitate interest in the %orld 2+ giving *unior facult+ mem2ers greater incentives to 'artici'ate in it" 7hat should include greater toleration of un'o'ular 'olic+ 'ositions" 1ne could multi'l+ such useful suggestions, 2ut +oung 'eo'le should not hold their 2reath %aiting for them to 2e im'lemented" If an+thing, the trends in academic life seem to 2e headed in the o''osite direction"

9. Perm do the plan and the non#mutually ex lusive parts of the alt ?. -ardt and &egri*s 0mpire is neither lear nor redi"le Thompson+ 9%%5" F4aul 7hom'son, 4rofessor at Hichigan State, 200." #
Critical Reading of =ardt and 8egri& Ca'ital and Class, htt'())cnc"sage'u2"com)content)20)2)/3"shortG =ardt and 8egriJs 6m'ire has 2ecome hugel+ influential, not onl+ in theorising contem'orar+ societies, 2ut as a guide to the 'olitics of the 9eft and the antiglo2alisation movement" The "oo,Ns s!eep and am"ition is indeed huge+ "ut is not mat hed "y the larity of its on epts or the redi"ility of the eviden e presented. &either the "oo,Ns analysis of regimes of glo"al governan e and the hidden a"ode of produ tion+ nor its arti ulation of a potential agen y of resistan eDthe multitudeDare onvin ing. 7hom'son com'lements other criti?ues through the use of the tools of la2our 'rocess theor+

to criti?ue the 'olitical econom+ of 6m'ire, and to note its unfortunate similarities to onventional theories of the ,no!ledge e onomy.

F. Conditionality is a voter O reates time and strategy s,e!s+ argumentative irresponsi"ility+ and dispo solves ." Capitalism is inevita"leD People !ill al!ays !ant to "etter their lives. 8aumol + %<" 5illiam J" Baumol, 1fficer of the Lauffman $oundation and a
'u2lished author 2+ Rale !niversit+, 200/, 311E C#4I7#9ISH, B#E C#4I7#9ISH, #8E 7=6 6C181HI6S 1$ 3R157= #8E 4R1S46RI7R&, 'age 1C" At the "ottom+ e onomi gro!th is essential not "e ause humans are greedy or ex essively materialisti + "ut "e ause they !ant to "etter their lives" 7his is a natural as'iration and only !ith more e onomi output an more people live a more en)oya"le and satisfying existen e " 1f course, e onomi gro!th is not the only goal in life. #s economists %ill 2e the first to 'oint out, there are al%a+s
trade-offs( Hore %or< leaves less time for 'la+ and for famil+" Hore out'ut often is accom'anied 2+ an increase in un%elcome side effects, such as 'ollution . 8ut at the end of the day+ the ri her so ieties

are+ the more resour es they !ill have to address the side effe ts of gro!th as !ell as the various maladies that shorten lives or ma,e them less satisfying.

J. Perm do "oth <. Perm do the alt G. $mperialism goodD Allo!s for progression 8oot+ %?. FHa; Boot" Council on $oreign Relations" 11 Ha+ 2003" !S
Im'erialism( # $orce for 3ood&" 8ational Securit+ Studies" htt'())%%%"cfr"org)ira?)us-im'erialism-force-good)'.0.0G The greatest danger is that Ameri a !onNt use all of its po!er for fear of the >$> !ord ## imperialism 5hen as<ed on #'ril 2A on al-JaDeera %hether the !nited States %as Kem'ire 2uilding,K Secretar+ of Eefence Eonald Rumsfeld reacted as if heJd 2een as<ed %hether he %ears %omenJs under%ear" K5e donJt see< em'ires,K he re'lied huffil+" K5eJre not im'erialistic" 5e never have 2een"K 7hatJs a fine ans%er for 'u2lic consum'tion" 7he 'ro2lem is that it isnJt true" . The United States has "een an empire sin e at least 1G%?+ !hen Thomas Lefferson pur hased the 1ouisiana Territory. Throughout the 1Hth entury+ !hat Lefferson alled the >empire of li"erty> expanded a ross the ontinent. 5hen !"S" 'o%er stretched from Ksea to shining sea,K the #merican em'ire moved a2road, ac?uiring colonies ranging from 4uerto Rico and the 4hili''ines to =a%aii and #las<a" 5hile the formal em'ire mostl+ disa''eared after the Second 5orld 5ar, the !nited States set out on another 2out of im'erialism in 3erman+ and Ja'an" 1h, sorr+ -- that %asnJt im'erialismN it %as Koccu'ation"K But %hen #mericans are running foreign governments, itJs a distinction %ithout a difference" 9i<e%ise, recent Knation-2uildingK e;'eriments in Somalia, =aiti, Bosnia, Losovo and #fghanistan are im'erialism under another name" Hind +ou, this is not meant as a condemnation" 7he histor+ of #merican im'erialism is hardl+ one of unadorned good doingN there have 2een 'lent+ of shameful e'isodes, such as the mistreatment

of the Indians" But, on the !hole+ U.S. imperialism has "een the greatest for e for good in the !orld during the past entury. $t has defeated the monstrous evils of ommunism and &a7ism and lesser evils su h as the Tali"an and Ser"ian ethni leansing. Along the !ay+ it has helped spread li"eral institutions to ountries as diverse as South Iorea and Panama.

0" $mperialism empiri ally "rings good things to so ieties the aff laims they .dominate/. 'o"erts+ %<. F#ndre% Ro2erts" a 'rofessional historian since the 'u2lication of
his life of 9ord =alifa;, 7he =ol+ $o;, in 1001, %hich %on the 5olfson =istor+ 4riDe in 2000" =e is the author of the ne% 2oo<, # =istor+ of the 6nglish S'ea<ing 4eo'les since 1000", !S and British Im'erialism& $ront'age Intervie% Series" htt'())archive"front'agemag"com)read#rticle"as';,#R7IE-2.42/G 6m'ire 'rovided good government+ un orrupt pu"li administration+ inter# tri"al pea e+ the rule of la!+ free trade+ the a"olition of slavery+ famine relief+ the a"olition of "ar"ari ustoms su h as suttee and thugee+ huge infrastru tural advan es su h as rail!ays+ roads plus irrigation pro)e ts+ and in every olony nurtured its native peoples to!ards running their o!n ountries on e they !ere ripe for independen e. Compared to any other glo"al empire+ it !as a fantasti ally "enefi ial institution. 5hen one loo<s at the histor+ of man+ 'arts of the former 6m'ire toda+ - es'eciall+ in #sia and #frica the most 'eaceful and 'roductive 'art of their histor+ %as during 6m'ireBs rule"

1%. $nstitutions !ill only hange if you use them ## re)e ting politi s allo!s a"uses to ontinue !ithout limits Eavid 6" E Clean, 4h"E", 4hiloso'h+, 7he 8e% School for Social Research F2000G Hinisterial
Certificate, 7he 8e% Seminar+ F200AG H"#", 4hiloso'h+, 7he 8e% School for Social Research F2003G H"#", 9i2eral Studies Fconcentration in 'hiloso'h+G, 8e% Ror< !niversit+ F100CG B"#", Com'arative Religion Fsumma cum laudeG, =unter College, C!8R F10ACG Eirector, 7he Interfaith !nion for 4rogressive Religion #d*unct Hem2er, #merican 4hiloso'hical 4ractitioners #ssociation Hem2er, #merican 4hiloso'hical #ssociation Hem2er, Societ+ for the #dvancement of #merican 4hiloso'h+ #uthor, :arious 'hiloso'hical articles and 2oo< revie%s 9ectured or taught at universities across the countr+ 9ecturer in 4hiloso'h+, Hollo+ College, 8e% Ror< and Rutgers !niversit+ F8e%ar<G,

9%%1,

7he Culture =o'es and the 9imits of Social =o'e&, %%%"american'hiloso'h+"org)archives)'astMconferenceM'rograms)'c2001)Eiscussion Q20'a'ers)davidMmcclean"htm
long overdue,

Ret for some reason, at least 'artiall+ e;'licated in Richard Rort+Js #chieving 1ur Countr+, a 2oo< that I thin< is

leftist riti s ontinue to ite and refer to the e entri and often a priori ruminations of 'eo'le li<e those *ust mentioned, and a litan+ of others including Eerrida, EeleuDe,
9+otard, Jameson, and 9acan, %ho are to me hugel+ more irrelevant than =a2ermas in their narrative attem'ts to suggest 'olic+ 'rescri'tions F%hen the+ actuall+ do suggest themG aimed at curing the ills of homelessness, 'overt+, mar<et greed, national 2elligerence and racism" I %ould li<e to suggest that

it is time for #merican so ial riti s !ho are enamored !ith this group+ those !ho actuall+ !ant to "e relevant+ to re ogni7e that they have a disease, and a disease regarding %hich I m+self must remem2er to sta+ faithful to m+ o%n t%elve ste' 'rogram of recover+" 7he disease is the need for ela"orate theoreti al >remedies> !rapped in neologi al and multi#sylla"i )argon" 7hese ela2orate theoretical remedies are more Kinteresting,K to 2e sure, than the 'ragmaticall+ settled
?uestions a2out %hat sha'e democrac+ should ta<e in various conte;ts, or %hether 'rivate 'ro'ert+ should 2e 'rotected 2+ the state, or regarding our 2asic human nature Fdescri2ed, if not defined Fheaven for2idYG, in such statements as K5e donJt li<e to starveK and K5e li<e to s'ea< our minds %ithout fear of deathK and K5e li<e to <ee' our children safe from 'overt+KG" #s Rort+ 'uts it, K5hen one of toda+Js academic leftists sa+s that some to'ic has 2een Jinade?uatel+ theoriDed,J +ou can 2e 'rett+ certain that he or she is going to drag in either 'hiloso'h+ of

futile attempts to philosophi7e oneNs !ay into politi al relevan e are a symptom of !hat happens !hen a 1eft retreats from a tivism and adopts a spe tatorial approa h to the pro"lems of its ountry " ;isengagement from pra ti e produ es theoreti al hallu inationsKFitalics mineG"F1G 1r as John Ee%e+ 'ut it in his
language, or 9acanian 's+choanal+sis, or some neo-Har;ist version of economic determinism" " " " 7hese 7he 8eed for a Recover+ of 4hiloso'h+, KI 2elieve that 'hiloso'h+ in #merica %ill 2e lost 2et%een che%ing a historical cud long since reduced to %ood+ fi2er, or an a'ologetics for lost causes, " " " " or a scholastic, schematic formalism, unless it can someho% 2ring to consciousness #mericaJs o%n needs and its o%n im'licit 'rinci'le of successful action"K 7hose %ho suffer or have suffered from this disease Rort+ refers to as the Cultural 9eft, %hich left is *u;ta'osed to the 4olitical 9eft that Rort+ 'refers and 'refers for good reason" #nother attri2ute of the Cultural 9eft is that its mem2ers fanc+ themselves 'ure culture critics %ho vie% the successes of #merica and the 5est, rather than some of the 2ar2arous methods for achieving those successes, as mostl+ evil, and %ho vie% an+thing li<e national 'ride as e?uall+ evil even %hen that 'ride is tem'ered %ith the <no%ledge and admission of the nationJs shortcomings" UC187BEV-b

a- UC187BEV In other %ords, the Cultural 9eft, in this countr+, too often dismiss Ameri an so iety as "eyond reform and redemption" #nd Rort+ correctl+ argues that this is a disastrous on lusion, i"e" disastrous for the Cultural 9eft" I thin< it ma+ also 2e disastrous for our social
ho'es, as I %ill e;'lain" 9eftist #merican culture critics might 'ut their considera2le talents to 2etter use if the+ 2ur+ some of their c+nicism a2out #mericaJs social and 'olitical 'ros'ects and hel' forge 'u2lic and 'olitical 'ossi2ilities in a s'irit of determination to, indeed, achieve our countr+ - the countr+ of Jefferson and LingN the countr+ of John Ee%e+ and Halcom ZN the countr+ of $ran<lin Roosevelt and Ba+ard Rustin, and of the later 3eorge 5allace and the later Barr+ 3old%ater" 7o invo<e the %ords of Ling, and %ith reference to the #merican societ+,

the time is al!ays ripe to sei7e the opportunity to help reate the K2eloved communit+,K one !oven !ith the thread of agape into a on eptually single yet diverse tapestry that shoots for nothing less than a true intra#Ameri an osmopolitan ethos, one %herein 2oth same se; unions and faith-2ased initiatives %ill 2e a2le to 2e 'art

of the same social realit+, one %herein 2usiness interests and the universit+ are not seen as 2elonging to t%o se'arate gala;ies 2ut as 'art of the same ans%er to the threat of social and ethical nihilism" 5e %ho fanc+ ourselves 'hiloso'hers %ould do %ell to reate from %ithin ourselves and from %ithin our ran<s a ne! ,ind

of pu"li intelle tual !ho has "oth a hungry theoreti al mind and !ho is yet apa"le of seeing the need to move past high theory to other im'ortant ?uestions that are less 2edaDDling and KinterestingK 2ut more im'ortant to the prospe t of our flourishing - ?uestions such as K=o% is it 'ossi2le to develo' a citiDenr+ that cherishes a certain
he;is, one %hich 'riDes the character of the Samaritan on the road to Jericho almost more than an+ other,K or K=o% can %e s?uare the 'olitical dogma that undergirds the fantas+ of a missile defense s+stem %ith the need to treat #merica as 2ut one mem2er in a communit+ of nations under a Kla% of 'eo'les,K 7he ne% 'u2lic 'hiloso'her might

understand la"or la! and military and trade theory and do trine as mu h as theories of surplus valueA the logi of international mar,ets and trade agreements as mu h as riti6ues of ommodifi ation, and the 'olitics of com'le;it+ as much as the 'olitics of 'o%er Fall of %hich can still 2e done from our arm chairs"G 7his means going do!n deep into the guts of our 6uotidian so ial institutions , into
see< to institutions ta<e difficult and often un'leasant,

the grim+ 'ragmatic details %here intellectuals are loathe to d%ell 2ut %here the officers and 2ureaucrats of those

imperfe t de isions that affe t other peoplesN lives+ and it means ma,ing honest attempts to truly understand ho! those institutions a tually fun tion in the a tual !orld "efore ho!ling for their overthro! ommen es. 7his might hel' <ee' us from

2eing sla''ed do%n in de2ates 2+ true 'olic+ 'ros %ho actuall+ <no% %hat the+ are tal<ing a2out 2ut %ho lac< a%areness of the dogmatic assum'tions from %hich the+ 'roceed, and %ho have not +et found a good reason to listen to *argon-riddled lectures from 'hiloso'hers and culture critics %ith their sno2ish disres'ect for the so-called Kmanagerial class"K

9AC AT: S hmitt I

1. The "allot should evaluate ompeting politi al options a. 'e7 8asis ### predi ta"le stasis on the topi !hi h out!eighs ". Unlimits ### evaluating reps is infinitely regressive and means !e ould never !in . Aff hoi eD !e don*t endorse epistemology impa ts so !e shouldn*t have to de"ate them d. Their I self marginali7es itself out of politi s and is therefore useless Jose'h &ye, 'rofessor at =arvard !niversit+ and former dean of the =arvard Lenned+ School, 4-13-9%%H, 5ashington 4ost,
htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)%'d+n)content)article)2000)04)12)#R20000412022C0M'f"html 4-13-00 4resident 12ama has a''ointed some distinguished academic economists and la%+ers to his administration, 2ut fe% high-ran<ing 'olitical scientists have 2een named" In fact, the editors of a recent 'oll of more than 2,/00 international relations e;'erts declared that Kthe !alls surrounding the ivor+ to%er have never seemed so high"K 5hile im'ortant #merican scholars such as =enr+ Lissinger and S2ignie% BrDeDins<i too< high-level foreign 'olic+ 'ositions in the 'ast, that 'ath has tended to 2e a one-%a+ street" &ot many top#ran,ed s holars of international relations are going into government, and even fe%er return to contri2ute to academic theor+" 7he 200A 7eaching, Research and International 4olic+ F7RI4G 'oll, 2+ the Institute for 7heor+ and 4ractice in International Relations, sho%ed that of the 2. scholars rated as 'roducing the most interesting scholarshi' during the 'ast five +ears, onl+ three had ever held 'olic+ 'ositions Ft%o in the !"S" government and one in the !nited 8ationsG" The fault for this gro%ing ga' lies not %ith the government 2ut !ith the a ademi s" S holars are paying less attention to ?uestions a2out ho! their !or, relates to the poli y !orld, and in man+ de'artments a focus on 'olic+ can hurt oneJs career" #dvancement comes faster for those %ho develo' mathematical models, ne% methodologies or theories e;'ressed in *argon that is unintelligi2le to 'olic+ma<ers" # surve+ of articles 'u2lished over the lifetime of the #merican 4olitical Science Revie% found that a2out one in five dealt %ith 'olic+ 'rescri'tion or criticism in the first half of the centur+, %hile onl+ a handful did so after 10C/" 6ditor 9ee Sigelman o2served in the *ournalJs centennial issue that Kif Js'ea<ing truth to 'o%erJ and contri2uting directl+ to 'u2lic dialogue a2out the merits and demerits of various courses of action %ere still num2ered among the functions of the 'rofession, one %ould not have <no%n it from leafing through its leading *ournal"K #s citiDens, a ademi s might "e onsidered to have an o2ligation to help improve on poli y ideas !hen they an" Horeover, su h engagement an enhan e and enrich a ademi !or,+ and thus the a"ility of a ademi s to tea h the next generation" #s former undersecretar+ of state Eavid 8e%som argued a decade ago, Kthe gro%ing !ithdra!al of universit+ s holars "ehind urtains of theory

and modeling !ould not have %ider significance if this trend did not raise 6uestions regarding the preparation of ne! generations and the future influen e of the a ademi ommunity on pu"li and offi ial per eptions of international issues and events" Tea hers plant seeds that shape the thin,ing of ea h ne! generationN this is 'ro2a2l+ the a ademi !orldNs most lasting ontri"ution"K Ret too often scholars teach theor+ and methods that are relevant to other academics 2ut not to the ma*orit+ of the students sitting in the classroom 2efore them" Some academics say that !hile the gro%ing gap "et!een theory and poli y may have osts for poli y, it has produ ed "etter so ial s ien e theory, and that this is more important than !hether su h s holarship is relevant" #lso, to some e;tent, the ga' is an inevita2le result of the gro%th and s'ecialiDation of <no%ledge" $e% 'eo'le can <ee' u' %ith their su2fields, much less all of social science" But the danger is that a ademi theori7ing !ill say more and more a"out less and less" 6ven %hen a ademi s su''lement their usual tric<le-do%n a''roach to 'olic+ 2+ %riting in *ournals, ne%s'a'ers or 2logs, or 2+ consulting for candidates or 'u2lic officials, the+ fa e man+ ompetitors for attention" Hore than 1,200 thin, tan,s in the !nited States provide not only ideas "ut also experts ready to omment or consult at a momentNs noti e" Some of these ne% transmission 2elts serve as translators and additional outlets for academic ideas, 2ut many add a "ias 'rovided 2+ their founders and funders" #s a grou', thin< tan<s are heterogeneous in sco'e, funding, ideolog+ and location, 2ut universities generally offer a more neutral vie!point. 5hile 'luralism of institutional 'ath%a+s is good for democrac+, the poli y pro ess is diminished "y the !ithdra!al of the a ademi ommunity" The solutions must ome via a reappraisal !ithin the a ademy itself" Ee'artments should give greater %eight to real-%orld relevance and im'act in hiring and 'romoting +oung scholars" Journals could 'lace greater %eight on relevance in evaluating su2missions" Studies of s'ecific regions deserve more attention" !niversities could facilitate interest in the %orld 2+ giving *unior facult+ mem2ers greater incentives to 'artici'ate in it" 7hat should include greater toleration of un'o'ular 'olic+ 'ositions" 1ne could multi'l+ such useful suggestions, 2ut +oung 'eo'le should not hold their 2reath %aiting for them to 2e im'lemented" If an+thing, the trends in academic life seem to 2e headed in the o''osite direction"

9. Perm do "oth O the argument that friend=enemy distin tions ex lusively define the politi al )ustifies li"eral redu tionism O a produ tive use of their riti ism re6uires holding the spa e of the politi al open to multiple perspe tives and approa hes. Hi<<el Thorup, 4h"E" dissertation W the Institute of 4hiloso'h+ and the =istor+ of Ideas, 9%%J , Januar+, In Eefence of 6nmit+ O Criti?ues of 9i2eral 3lo2alism,& '"
130-140 7his te;t is mainl+ a2out the 'otential dangers of the li2eral a''roach to 'olitics" But this is not turning it into an un?ualified defence or advocac+ of the conflict 'ers'ective" #s an illustration of the dangers of %hat %e can call Xmanichean decisionismB, IBll 2riefl+ mention an article on SchmittBs conce't of the 'olitical 2+ Bernard 5illms F1001G, in %hich he classifies t%o traditions of 'olitical thin<ing( politi al realism and 'olitical fictionalism Ftr+ to guess his 'ositionYG" 4olitical fictionalism su2ordinates 'olitics to XhigherB 'rinci'les or XtruthsB&, %hereas 'olitical

realism is the 'ermanentl+ re'eated attem't to conceive of 'olitics as %hat in fact it is& F1001( 3/1G" It is a FunintendedG caricature on the self-'rofessed realistBs sense of su'eriorit+ 2ecause of their courage and a2ilit+ to confront the reall+ real realit+( 4olitical fictionalisms hel' to satisf+ manBs need for consolation, edification, ho'e and sense, tending to veil real conditions of government" 7he 'olitical realist see<s to identif+ necessities O irres'ective of their severit+ and %ithout consideration for an+ need for deceit under the e;isting government" F1001( 3/1-2G 7his is the <ind of redu tionism of the politi al that I %ant to avoid" Wor,ing !ith S hmitt*s ategories and riti6ues entails a danger of falling in the Fver+ selfcomfortingG trap of pro laiming only one true and XhardB version of the politi al and of dismissing all others as fictions and !ishful thin,ing" 4rimac+ of the 'olitical 2ecomes 'rimac+ of foreign 'olic+, organiDed violence etc" The politi al is effe tively redu ed to a fe! areas O !hi h is )ust !hat li"eralism is riti i7ed for doing. The friend=enemy distin tion or conflictualit+ may often "e a dominant feature of the politi al+ "ut that is not to say that it is then the politi al. #s #n<ersmit F100C( 12/G sa+s, that %ould 2e the same as ma<ing the unavoida2ilit+ of marital disagreements into the ver+ foundation of marriage as such" I %ant instead to argue that the politi al ontains a num"er of styles+ sides+ variants For %hatever one %ant to call itG that can ver+ loosel+ and ideal-t+'icall+ 2e grou'ed in t%o main forms( 4olitics as conflict and 'olitics as techni?ue, %here neither of them can claim e;clusivit+" So, I %ant to avoid a sterile discussion of %hat the 'olitical reall+ is" H+ interest is far more the various st+les of the 'olitical that are o'erative in 'olitical de2ate" Schmitt and man+ other conflict theoreticians do not see the other face of the 'olitical as an+thing other than a Xsecondar+B, Xde'endentB, Xcorru'tedB e;'ression of 'olitics" 9i2erals tend to e;clude 'olitics as conflict, confining it to other s'aces in time or geogra'h+, as a2erration or rela'se" 5hat the t%o on epts each do is to highlight a ertain aspe t of the politi a l, and m+ claim is that the+ are elements of a unit+" 7hereBs a certain 'endulum 'rocess at %or< and IBll give that a num2er of e;'ressions, %hich 2asicall+ states the not ver+ controversial thought that the politi al !orld is lo ated "et!een the extremes of repetition and "rea,+ sta"ility and hange+ regime and revolution, or, as I 'refer to call them, te hni6ue and onfli t" Ee'oliticiDation, then, is a %a+ to descri2e the attem'ts to or methods of ma<ing re'etition, sta2ilit+ and regime universal and eternal O to 'lace areas, 'ractices and actors 2e+ond change and criti?ue O %hereas re'oliticiDation descri2es the o''osite movement O disru'tion, change, recreation of the entire social s'ace"

?. Perm do the alt F. S hmitt*s history is sele tive and misleadingDenmity has not redu ed the s ale or s ope of !ars Christ 8ro!n, 4rofessor of International Relations and Convenor of the International Relations Ee'artment at the 9ondon School of 6conomics, 9%%<
5riting in 7he international 'olitical thought of Carl Schmitt( 7error 9i2eral 5ar and the Crisis of 3lo2al 1rder& 'g C3-C4G 1ther features of S hmitt*s rather sele tive a ount of the history of the 6uro'ean states-s+stem also deserve to "e hallenged" Central to this history is the notion that the "ra ,eted+ humani7ed !ars of sovereign states !ere less terri"le than the religious !ars they repla ed+ or the modern rusades they !ould

"e repla ed "y. It is certainl+ the case that there !ere "rief periods in modern 0uropean history, es'eciall+ in the mid-eighteenth centur+, !hen the notion of !ar as a duel 2et%een enemies %ho recogniDed each other as legitimate "ore some relationship to the fa ts O although even then the general level of "rutality to!ards ivilians !as higher than ane dotes such as that told 2+ 9aurence Sterne !ould suggest" In an+ event, these periods !ere fe! and far "et!een. Eost of the time+ the more ivili7ed features of !ar during the era of the pu"li la! of 0urope !ere experien ed only "y the prin es !ho de lared them, and 'erha's a fe% aristocrats and senior militar+ offcers" Hore, S hmitt ma,es life easy for himself "y de]ning his period in a !ay that helps his ase O thus the Thirty Tears War is des ri"ed as a religious on^i t %hich 'redates the idea of %ar as a duel 2et%een sovereign states, and yet religion !as only one element in that on^i t+ and often not the most signi] ant element. Catholi Fran e and the Papa y ended up effe tively on !hat !as nominally the XProtestant* side of the on^i t !hi h hardly suggests deep religious motivations.

5. Perm do the plan and the non#mutually ex lusive parts of the alt J. S hmitt*s all for unity of .the people/ in the fa e of enemies is fundamentally fas ist Raseen &oorani, #ssistant 4rofessor in the Ee'artment of 8ear 6astern Studies at the !niversit+ of #riDona, 9%%5, 7he Rhetoric of Securit+,& CR( 7he 8e%
Centennial Revie%, ."1, '" 20-22 S hmitt*s riti6ue of li"eral normativity is "eset !ith ontradi tions and unfounded assumptions+ 2eginning %ith its o%n foundation in the li2eral notion of the state of %ar"A 5hat his criti?ue hel's us to understand is not so much the o''osition 2et%een the 'olitical Fself-'reservationG and the normative that it argues, 2ut rather, ho% these t%o conditions must hang together in a 'arado;ical em2race" 7his contradictor+ union of the amoral and moral lies at the heart of li2eral social contract theor+ and is the rhetorical <e+ to the !"S" %ar on terror" It is also the roc< u'on %hich SchmittBs 'olitical& founders in an instructive manner" S hmitt attempts to o"s ure the ultimatel+ normative nature of the on ept of .the people/ !hile relying on this normativity nonetheless" 7he commonl+ acce'ted right of individual self-'reservation a''arentl+ has an intuitive 2asis in our recognition of a fundamental natural drive for self-'reservation" We normall+ regard a living person, or other organism, as a self#evident fact and "elieve that 2+ its constitution such an organism senses %hen its life is in danger and a ts to save itself. A .people/ and its state, ho%ever, is not of this nature" #s Chantal Houffe 'oints out in the 'assage ?uoted a2ove, the identity of .the people/ is su")e t to politi al ontestation. ;ifferent individuals and grou's have onfli ting ideas a"out the nature of their nation, %ho is included %ithin it, %hat its values are" #s a result, the+ also have conflicting ideas a"out !hat onstitutes a threat to the nation*s existen e. S hmitt*s argument is "ased on his assumption that .the people/ is a pre#given entity , a natural <ind %hose e;istence is *ust as self-evident as that of an individual 'erson" 7his 'eo'le or nation is the fundamental unit of self-'reservation, of life and death antagonisms among human 2eings" 7herefore, S hmitt re)e ts an+ <ind of internal antagonism, i"e", 'olitical division, !ithin the people" The nation)state must "e

fully unified in order to fulfill its 'ur'ose 2+ prote ting its mem"ers from 'ossi2le extin tion FSchmitt 100C, 2AO32G" 1ne corollar+ of this vie% is that the enem+ of the 'eo'le is self-evident>the nation %hose life is threatened 2+ this enem+ s'ontaneousl+ recogniDes it, and there is no sco'e for argument, 'ersuasion, or moral *udgement concerning the matter" 7he enem+ is the other, the strangerN and it is sufficient for his nature that he is, in a s'eciall+ intense %a+, e;istentiall+ something different and alien, so that in the e;treme case conflicts %ith him are 'ossi2le" 7hese can neither 2e decided 2+ a 'reviousl+ determined general norm nor 2+ the *udgment of a disinterested and therefore neutral third 'art+" F2/G A second orollary of this vie% is that the government of a 'eo'le is the dire t expression of this people*s "eing and as such is full+ entitled to deter# mine !ho enemies are, 2oth foreign and domestic, as %ell as %hen and ho% to %age %ars against them F4CG" The fas ist impli ations of these vie%s are o"vious. Anything is permitted for the sa,e of self#preservation, the 'eo- 'le& is the self that must 2e 'reserved, and the state is the 'eo'leBs agenc+& em'o%ered to 'rotect it" Ees'ite SchmittBs essentialist m+sticism of the 'eo'le, it is clear that the existen e of a nation, its identit+, is not self#evident "ut determined "y the politi al ontestation that Schmitt so much hates" 7his is 2ecause .the people/ or nation is not a pre onstituted organism "ut a moral ideal invo<ed for 'olitical 'ur'oses" S hmitt admits as mu h !hen he states that a people goes to !ar in order to preserve its .!ay of life"&0 Schmitt does not define his notion of a 'eo'le& 2ut sti'ulates that it is the collective unit of self-'reservation, the onl+ unit that engages in life and death antagonisms and thus the onl+ 'olitical unit" !nli<e =o22es, Schmitt does not derive 'olitical association and the state from the desire of individuals for self- 'reservation" Rather, it is the self-'reservation of the 'eo'le& that is of ultimate im'ortance, and individuals can 2e sacrificed for it" What is of ultimate value, therefore, more value than individual lives+ is a given people*s .!ay of life./ 7his is the self-evident self that 'eo'le should 2e %illing to die to 'reserve" S hmitt has left the "iologi al realm of ne essity here and entered the moral. A !ay of life can onl+ 2e valua2le as the %a+ things ought to 2e" It is a norm !hose meaning and ontent is open to de"ate. People have to "e 'ersuaded and onvin ed that it is !orth dying for" Horeover, the attri2ution of a s'ecific %a+ of life to a nation is al%a+s a 'olitical act" $t is an assertion that all mem"ers of this nation adhere to a ertain norm that is the identit+ of this nation, thus delegitimiDing those %ho es'ouse or 'romote different norms" 7he call to %ar, therefore, is 'olitical in the sense of internal 'olitics 2ecause in identif+ing a threat to the nationBs e;istence, its %a+ of life,& those !ho all to !ar assert a parti ular on eption of !hat onstitutes the nation*s !ay of life and attempt to esta"lish this on eption*s normativity for all mem"ers of the nation" Contrar+ to SchmittBs claims, %e see that %henever states or others call u'on a 'o'ulation to go to %ar, the+ addu e existential and moral )ustifi ations at the same time , and indeed the t%o can never full+ 2e distinguished" 5e see this even in the e;em'lar+ cases a''rovingl+ invo<ed 2+ Schmitt" =e cites the su''osed life and death strug- gle of Christianit+ and Islam during the Hiddle #ges FSchmitt 100C, 30G"10 7he mutual moral condemnation here as a *ustification for %ars is a''ar- ent" Schmitt also cites %ith great a''ro2ation a s'eech made 2+ Crom%ell illustrating recognition of irreduci2le enmit+ %ith regard to S'ain FCAG" But this s'eech e;'licitl+ attri2utes the enmit+ that Crom%ell calls u'on his com'atriots to feel to%ards and recogniDe in S'ain to the ungodliness F'a'ac+G of the S'anish and the godliness of the 6nglish" It is an

enmit+ rooted in 3odBs moral strictures" # %a+ of life& is not a living organism in its facticit+ 2ut an am2iguous norm o'en to contestation, redefinition, and even re'udiation" 7his means that the non-normative status of self-'reser- vation, acceded to the life of an individual 'erson, is attached in the case of nations to a normative ideal"11

<. S hmitt*s history is sele tive and misleadingDenmity has not redu ed the s ale or s ope of !ars Christ 8ro!n, 4rofessor of International Relations and Convenor of the International Relations Ee'artment at the 9ondon School of 6conomics, 9%%<
5riting in 7he international 'olitical thought of Carl Schmitt( 7error 9i2eral 5ar and the Crisis of 3lo2al 1rder& 'g C3-C4G 1ther features of S hmitt*s rather sele tive a ount of the history of the 6uro'ean states-s+stem also deserve to "e hallenged" Central to this history is the notion that the "ra ,eted+ humani7ed !ars of sovereign states !ere less terri"le than the religious !ars they repla ed+ or the modern rusades they !ould "e repla ed "y. It is certainl+ the case that there !ere "rief periods in modern 0uropean history, es'eciall+ in the mid-eighteenth centur+, !hen the notion of !ar as a duel 2et%een enemies %ho recogniDed each other as legitimate "ore some relationship to the fa ts O although even then the general level of "rutality to!ards ivilians !as higher than ane dotes such as that told 2+ 9aurence Sterne !ould suggest" In an+ event, these periods !ere fe! and far "et!een. Eost of the time+ the more ivili7ed features of !ar during the era of the pu"li la! of 0urope !ere experien ed only "y the prin es !ho de lared them, and 'erha's a fe% aristocrats and senior militar+ offcers" Hore, S hmitt ma,es life easy for himself "y de]ning his period in a !ay that helps his ase O thus the Thirty Tears War is des ri"ed as a religious on^i t %hich 'redates the idea of %ar as a duel 2et%een sovereign states, and yet religion !as only one element in that on^i t+ and often not the most signi] ant element. Catholi Fran e and the Papa y ended up effe tively on !hat !as nominally the XProtestant* side of the on^i t !hi h hardly suggests deep religious motivations.

G. S hmitt fully em"ra ed &a7ism and anti#Semitism. Gold"latt, Je%ish scholar and 4rofessor at the $ashion Institute of 7echnolog+ of the State !niversit+ of 8e% Ror<, 9%%9 20th-centur+ 'hiloso'hersJ love affair
%ith totalitarianism&, htt'())reason"com)archives)2002)10)01)dangerous-thin<ers)1 -eideggerNs &a7ism+ ho%ever re'ulsive, seems a mere flirtation ompared to the deep em"ra e of -itler "y his 3erman contem'orar+ Carl S hmitt. #lread+ a 'rominent universit+ 'rofessor and 'olitical and legal theorist %hen he *oined the 8aDi 4art+ in 1033, S hmitt !as personally mentored "y =ermann Goring and eventually "e ame, in 9illaJs %ords, >a ommitted+ offi ial advo ate of the &a7i regime.> -e spo,e at a 103C onferen e titled K3erman Juris'rudence in the Struggle Against the Le!ish Spirit+> alling for a purge of Le!ish texts from li"raries and en ouraging his olleagues not to ite Le!ish authors in their o!n !ritings. -e losed his spee h "y 6uoting -itler himself( K8y !arding off the Le!s+ $ struggle for the !or, of the 1ord.> After the !ar+ %hen Schmitt %as interrogated 2+ 2oth the #mericans and the Russians, he defended himself %ith characteristic academic smugness( KI dran< the 8aDi 2acillus

2ut %as not infected"K =e %as in the end released, 2ut he !as never allo!ed to tea h again.

9AC AT: Pan I

1. The "allot should evaluate ompeting politi al options a. 'e7 8asis ### predi ta"le stasis on the topi !hi h out!eighs ". Unlimits ### evaluating reps is infinitely regressive and means !e ould never !in . Aff hoi eD !e don*t endorse epistemology impa ts so !e shouldn*t have to de"ate them d. Their I self marginali7es itself out of politi s and is therefore useless Jose'h &ye, 'rofessor at =arvard !niversit+ and former dean of the =arvard Lenned+ School, 4-13-9%%H, 5ashington 4ost,
htt'())%%%"%ashington'ost"com)%'d+n)content)article)2000)04)12)#R20000412022C0M'f"html 4-13-00 4resident 12ama has a''ointed some distinguished academic economists and la%+ers to his administration, 2ut fe% high-ran<ing 'olitical scientists have 2een named" In fact, the editors of a recent 'oll of more than 2,/00 international relations e;'erts declared that Kthe !alls surrounding the ivor+ to%er have never seemed so high"K 5hile im'ortant #merican scholars such as =enr+ Lissinger and S2ignie% BrDeDins<i too< high-level foreign 'olic+ 'ositions in the 'ast, that 'ath has tended to 2e a one-%a+ street" &ot many top#ran,ed s holars of international relations are going into government, and even fe%er return to contri2ute to academic theor+" 7he 200A 7eaching, Research and International 4olic+ F7RI4G 'oll, 2+ the Institute for 7heor+ and 4ractice in International Relations, sho%ed that of the 2. scholars rated as 'roducing the most interesting scholarshi' during the 'ast five +ears, onl+ three had ever held 'olic+ 'ositions Ft%o in the !"S" government and one in the !nited 8ationsG" The fault for this gro%ing ga' lies not %ith the government 2ut !ith the a ademi s" S holars are paying less attention to ?uestions a2out ho! their !or, relates to the poli y !orld, and in man+ de'artments a focus on 'olic+ can hurt oneJs career" #dvancement comes faster for those %ho develo' mathematical models, ne% methodologies or theories e;'ressed in *argon that is unintelligi2le to 'olic+ma<ers" # surve+ of articles 'u2lished over the lifetime of the #merican 4olitical Science Revie% found that a2out one in five dealt %ith 'olic+ 'rescri'tion or criticism in the first half of the centur+, %hile onl+ a handful did so after 10C/" 6ditor 9ee Sigelman o2served in the *ournalJs centennial issue that Kif Js'ea<ing truth to 'o%erJ and contri2uting directl+ to 'u2lic dialogue a2out the merits and demerits of various courses of action %ere still num2ered among the functions of the 'rofession, one %ould not have <no%n it from leafing through its leading *ournal"K #s citiDens, a ademi s might "e onsidered to have an o2ligation to help improve on poli y ideas !hen they an" Horeover, su h engagement an enhan e and enrich a ademi !or,+ and thus the a"ility of a ademi s to tea h the next generation" #s former undersecretar+ of state Eavid 8e%som argued a decade ago, Kthe gro%ing !ithdra!al of universit+ s holars "ehind urtains of theory

and modeling !ould not have %ider significance if this trend did not raise 6uestions regarding the preparation of ne! generations and the future influen e of the a ademi ommunity on pu"li and offi ial per eptions of international issues and events" Tea hers plant seeds that shape the thin,ing of ea h ne! generationN this is 'ro2a2l+ the a ademi !orldNs most lasting ontri"ution"K Ret too often scholars teach theor+ and methods that are relevant to other academics 2ut not to the ma*orit+ of the students sitting in the classroom 2efore them" Some academics say that !hile the gro%ing gap "et!een theory and poli y may have osts for poli y, it has produ ed "etter so ial s ien e theory, and that this is more important than !hether su h s holarship is relevant" #lso, to some e;tent, the ga' is an inevita2le result of the gro%th and s'ecialiDation of <no%ledge" $e% 'eo'le can <ee' u' %ith their su2fields, much less all of social science" But the danger is that a ademi theori7ing !ill say more and more a"out less and less" 6ven %hen a ademi s su''lement their usual tric<le-do%n a''roach to 'olic+ 2+ %riting in *ournals, ne%s'a'ers or 2logs, or 2+ consulting for candidates or 'u2lic officials, the+ fa e man+ ompetitors for attention" Hore than 1,200 thin, tan,s in the !nited States provide not only ideas "ut also experts ready to omment or consult at a momentNs noti e" Some of these ne% transmission 2elts serve as translators and additional outlets for academic ideas, 2ut many add a "ias 'rovided 2+ their founders and funders" #s a grou', thin< tan<s are heterogeneous in sco'e, funding, ideolog+ and location, 2ut universities generally offer a more neutral vie!point. 5hile 'luralism of institutional 'ath%a+s is good for democrac+, the poli y pro ess is diminished "y the !ithdra!al of the a ademi ommunity" The solutions must ome via a reappraisal !ithin the a ademy itself" Ee'artments should give greater %eight to real-%orld relevance and im'act in hiring and 'romoting +oung scholars" Journals could 'lace greater %eight on relevance in evaluating su2missions" Studies of s'ecific regions deserve more attention" !niversities could facilitate interest in the %orld 2+ giving *unior facult+ mem2ers greater incentives to 'artici'ate in it" 7hat should include greater toleration of un'o'ular 'olic+ 'ositions" 1ne could multi'l+ such useful suggestions, 2ut +oung 'eo'le should not hold their 2reath %aiting for them to 2e im'lemented" If an+thing, the trends in academic life seem to 2e headed in the o''osite direction"

9. Perm do "oth

?. (ur predi tions are a urate Br+an Caplan, #ssociate 4rofessor of 6conomics at 3eorge Hason !niversit+, 122C-9%%5, 6con9og,
htt'())econlog"econli2"org)archives)200.)12)tac<lingMtetlocM1"html 4hili' 7etloc<, one of m+ favorite social scientists, is ma<ing %aves %ith his ne% 2oo<, 6;'ert 4olitical Judgment" 7etloc< s'ent t%o decades as<ing hundreds of 'olitical e;'erts to ma<e 'redictions a2out hundreds of issues" 5ith all this data under his 2elt, he then as<s and tries to ans%er a 2unch of Big Tuestions, including KEo e;'erts on average have a greater-than-chance a2ilit+ to 'redict the future,,K and K5hat <inds of e;'erts have the greatest forecasting a2ilit+,K 7his 2oo< is literall+ a%esome - to understand 7etloc<Js 'ro*ect and see ho% %ell he follo%s through fills me %ith a%e" #nd thatJs tough for me to admit, 2ecause it %ould 2e

eas+ to inter'ret 7etloc<Js %or< as a great refutation of m+ o%n" Host of m+ research highlights the s+stematic 2elief differences 2et%een economists and the general 'u2lic, and defends the sim'le" K The experts are right+ the pu"li is !rong,K inter'retation of the facts" 8ut Tetlo , finds that the average e;'ert is an em2arassingl+ 2ad forecaster" In fact, experts "arely "eat %hat 7etloc< calls the > himp> stategy of random guessing. $s m+ onfiden e in experts com'letel+ mispla ed, $ thin, not" Tetlo ,Ns sample suffers from severe sele tion "ias" =e deli2eratel+ as<ed relativel+ difficult and controversial ?uestions" #s his methodological a''endi; e;'lains, ?uestions had to K4ass the JdonJt 2other me too often %ith dum2 ?uestionsJ test"K Eum2 according to %ho, 7he im'licit ans%er is KEum2 according to the t+'ical e;'ert in the field"K What Tetlo , really sho!s is that experts are over onfident if you ex lude the 6uestions !here they have rea hed a solid onsensus" 7his is still an im'ortant finding" 6;'erts reall+ do ma<e overconfident 'redictions a2out controversial ?uestions" 5e have to sto' doing thatY =o%ever, this does not sho! that experts are over onfident a"out their ore findings. $tNs parti ularly important to ma,e this distin tion "e ause Tetlo ,Ns !or, is so good that a lot of ra ,pots !ill !ant to high)a , it: >0xperts are s ar ely "etter than himps+ so !hy not give intelligent design and prote tionism e6ual time,K But %hat 7etloc< reall+ sho%s is that e;'erts can raise their credi2ilit+ if the+ sto' overreaching"

F. 'ealism des ri"es northeast Asia and China =ochul 1ee, Ee'artment of 4olitical Science at the !niversit+ of Incheon, 3-.9%%5, Real'oliti< S%inging 2et%een Interde'endence and 8ationalism( ChinaBs
$oreign 4olic+ in the 4ost-Cold 5ar 8ortheast #sia,& htt'())%%%"allacademic"com))meta)'MmlaMa'aMresearchMcitation)0)C)0)0)/)'agesC00 /0)'C00/0-1"'h' 'ealpoliti, an "e on eived of as general rules of state "ehavior motivated "y system#level dynami s. $t is steered "y prudent al ulus of ost and "enefit of 'olic+ o'tions" In a muli'olar s+stem, it articulates into a 2alance of 'o%er 'olitics" $n the post#Cold War northeast Asia+ !here neither a s+stem of olla"oration nor an+ multilateral olle tive se urity is in existen e+ "alan e of po!er politi s operates as inevita"le state rea tions to assure minimum level of securit+" China may !ell "e onsidered as Xthe high hur h of realpoliti,* in the post#Cold War %orld FChristensen 100CG" We ould find a politi s of po!er "alan ing evident in the post#Cold War northeast Asia+ espe ially "et!een China and Lapan !ith their ompetitive in rease in defense spending.

5. Conse6uen es an "e assessed 7+ler Co!en, 3H!, Eecem2er 9%%J, 7he 6'istemic 4ro2lem Eoes 8ot Refute
Conse?uentialism,& !tilitas, 1A(4, '? The epistemi riti6ue relies heavily on a omplete la , of information a2out initial circumstances" This is not a plausi"le general assumption+ although it ma+ sometimes 2e true" #t the same time, the e'istemic criti?ue a''ears to 2e using a more 'lausi2le assum'tion, namel+ that of a high variance for the 'ro2a2ilit+ distri2ution of our estimates concerning the future" But sim'l+ increasing the level of variance or uncertaint+ does not add much force to the

e'istemic argument" 7he original force came from the assum'tion of no information a2out ma*or events of conse?uence" 7o see this more clearl+, consider another case of a high u'front 2enefit" Assume that the United States has "een hit !ith a "ioterror atta , and one million children have contracted small'o;"5e also have t!o ne% e;'erimental remedies+ "oth of %hich offer some han e of curing small'o; and restoring the children to perfe t health" If %e <no% for sure %hich remed+ %or<s, o2viousl+ %e should a''l+ that remed+" But imagine no% that %e are uncertain as to %hich remed+ %or<s" 7he uncertaint+ is so e;treme that each remed+ ma+ cure some%here 2et%een 300,000 and C00,000 children" 8onetheless !e have a slight idea that one remedy is "etter than the other" 7hat is, one remed+ is slightl+ more li<el+ to cure more children, %ith no other a''arent offsetting negative effects or considerations" ;espite the greater un ertainty+ %e still have the intuition that !e should try to save as many children as possi"le" 5e should a''l+ the remed+ that is more li<el+ to cure more children" We do not say: XWe are no! so un ertain a"out !hat !ill happen. We should pursue some goal other than trying to ure as many children as possi"le"B 8or %ould %e cite greater uncertaint+ a2out longer-run events as an argument against curing the children" We have a definite good in the present Fmore cured childrenG, "alan ed against a radi al remixing of the future on "oth sides of the e?uation" The definite upfront good still stands firm " #lternativel+, let us assume that our 2roader future suddenl+ 2ecame less 'redicta2le F'erha's genetic engineering is invented, %hich creates ne% and difficult-to-forecast 'ossi2ilitiesG" 7hat still %ould not diminish the force of our reason for saving more children" 7he variance of forecast 2ecomes larger on 2oth sides of the e?uation O %hether %e save the children or not O and the value of the u'front lives remains" # higher variance of forecast might increase the re?uired siDe of the u'front 2enefit Fto overcome the 4rinci'le of RoughnessG, 2ut it %ould not refute the relevance of conse?uences more generall+" We ould in rease the un ertainty more+ "ut onse6uentialism still !ill not appear ounterintuitive. 7he remedies, rather than curing some%here in the range of 300,000OC00,000 children, might cure in the 2roader range of Dero to all one million of the children" B+ all classical statistical standards, this ne% cure scenario involves more uncertaint+ than the 'revious case, such as 2+ having a higher variance of 'ossi2le outcomes" Ret this higher uncertaint+ lends little su''ort for the vie% that curing the children 2ecomes less im'ortant" We still have an imperative to apply the remedy that appears "est, and is e;'ected to cure the greater num2er of children" 7his e;am'le ma+ a''ear e;cessivel+ sim'le, 2ut it 'oints our attention to the non-generalit+ of the e'istemic criti?ue" 7he criti?ue a''ears strongest onl+ %hen %e have a2solutel+ no idea a2out the futureN this is a s'ecial rather than a general case" Simply "oosting the degree of "a ,ground generi un ertainty should not stop us from pursuing large upfront "enefits of o"vious importan e.

J. ;eath out!eighs 4aul Wapner, associate 'rofessor and director of the 3lo2al 6nvironmental 4olic+
4rogram at #merican !niversit+" 9eftist Criticism of K8atureK 6nvironmental 4rotection in a 4ostmodern #ge,& Eissent 5inter 20 %? htt'())%%%"dissentmagaDine"org)menutest)archives)2003)%i03)%a'ner"htm #ll attem'ts to listen to nature are social constructions-e;ce't one" 0ven the most radi al postmodernist must a ,no!ledge the distin tion "et!een physi al

existen e and non#existen e" #s I have said, 'ostmodernists acce't that there is a physi al su"stratum to the phenomenal !orld even if they argue a"out the different meanings !e as ri"e to it. This a ,no!ledgment of physi al existen e is ru ial. 5e canJt ascri2e meaning to that %hich doesnJt a''ear. What doesnNt exist an manifest no hara ter" 4ut differentl+, +es, the 'ostmodernist should rightl+ %orr+ a2out inter'reting natureJs e;'ressions" #nd all of us should 2e %ar+ of those %ho claim to s'ea< on natureJs 2ehalf Fincluding environmentalists %ho do thatG" But !e need not dou"t the simple idea that a 'rere?uisite of e;'ression is e;istence. This in turn suggests that preserving the nonhuman !orld-in all its diverse em2odiments- must "e seen "y e o# riti s as a fundamental good. 0 o# riti s must "e supporters , in some fashion, of environmental preservation" Postmodernists re)e t the idea of a universal good. They rightly a ,no!ledge the diffi ulty of identifying a ommon value given the multiple ontexts of our value#produ ing a tivity " In fact, if there is one thing they vehemently s orn+ it is the idea that there an "e a value that stands a"ove the individual ontexts of human experien e. Su h a value !ould present itself as a metanarrative and, as Jean-$rangois 9+otard has e;'lained, 'ostmodernism is characteriDed fundamentall+ 2+ its Kincredulit+ to%ard meta-narratives"K 8onetheless, $ anNt see ho! postmodern riti s an do other!ise than a ept the value of preserving the nonhuman !orld" 7he nonhuman is the extreme >other>A it stands in ontradistin tion to humans as a s'ecies" $n understanding the onstru ted 6uality of human experien e and the dangers of reification, 'ostmodernism inherentl+ advances an ethic of res'ecting the Kother"K #t the ver+ least, res'ect must involve ensuring that the KotherK actuall+ continues to e;ist" In our da+ and age, this re?uires us to ta<e res'onsi2ilit+ for 'rotecting the a tuality of the nonhuman. $nstead, ho%ever, !e are running roughshod over the earthJs diversit+ of 'lants, animals, and ecos+stems" 4ostmodern critics should find this 'articularl+ distur2ing" If the+ donJt, the+ den+ their o%n intellectual insights and com'romise their fundamental moral commitment"

<. I isn*t the root ause of the aff O their argument is overdetermined generali7ation+ plan is ,ey Scott E" Sagan O Ee'artment of 4olitical Science, Stanford !niversit+ O #CCIE687#9 5#R I8 7=61RR #8E 4R#C7IC6 O 9%%% O availa2le via(
%%%"sscnet"ucla"edu)'olisci)facult+)trachten2erg)cv)sagan"doc 7o ma<e reasona2le *udgements in such matters it is essential, in m+ vie%, to avoid the ommon >falla y of overdetermination.> 9oo<ing 2ac<%ards at historical events, it is al!ays tempting to underestimate the importan e of the immediate auses of a !ar and argue that the li<elihood of conflict %as so high that the !ar !ould have "ro,en out sooner or later even !ithout the spe ifi in ident that set it off. If ta<en too far, ho%ever, this tenden y eliminates the role of ontingen y in histor+ and diminishes our a"ility to per eive the alternative path!ays that %ere 'resent to historical actors" 7he 'oint is 'erha's 2est made through a counterfactual a2out the Cold 5ar" ;uring the 10C2 Cu"an Eissile Crisis, a "i7arre false !arning incident in the U.S. radar systems facing Cu2a led offi ers at the 8orth #merican #ir Eefense Command to "elieve that the !"S" %as under attac< and that a nu lear !eapon !as a"out to go off in Florida. 8o% imagine the counterfactual event that this false %arning %as re'orted and 2elieved 2+ !"S" leaders and resulted in a !"S" nuclear >retaliationK against the Russians" -o! !ould future historians have seen the auses of World War $$$M (ne an easily imagine

arguments stressing that the !ar "et!een the U.S. and the USS' !as inevita"le. War !as overdetermined: given the deep 'olitical hostility of the t%o su'er'o%ers, the onfli ting ideology, the escalating arms race, nu lear !ar !ould have o urred eventually" If not during that spe ifi risis over Cu"a+ then over the next one in 8erlin+ or the Hiddle 6ast, or Lorea" From that perspe tive+ fo using on this parti ular a idental event as a ause of !ar !ould "e seen as misleading. Tet+ !e all no! ,no!+ of ourse that a nu lear !ar !as neither inevita"le nor overdetermined during the Cold War.

G. 0nding U.S. se uriti7ation of China !ould heighten allied fears of 8ei)ing Johnathan -olslag, Research $und $landers fello% at the Brussels Institute of Contem'orar+ China Studies, Jul+ 9%%H, 6m2racing Chinese 3lo2al Securit+
#m2itions,& 7he 5ashington Tuarterl+, 32(3 #t the same time, Washington needs to "e attentive to on erns of ountries su h as Australia+ $ndia+ Lapan+ and South Iorea. ;istrust of China*s moderni7ing armed for es is mounting+ and they !ill see loser ooperation !ith the United States "eing done at the expense of their o!n strategi interests. 7he Indian militar+ has alread+ reacted negativel+ to 5ashingtonBs su''ort for the Chinese naval 'resence in the Indian 1cean" Lapan fears that allo!ing China*s military to expand its lout in the Western Pa ifi threatens its o!n maritime orridors and might em"olden 8ei)ing to exert military pressure in the 0ast China Sea dispute" 6ven Hosco% is no% 'rioritiDing refur2ishing its militar+ 'resence in the Russian $ar 6ast" 0asing one se urity dilemma might thus foster another" 5ashington needs to engage all four regional 'o%ers simultaneousl+" !nli<e counter2alancing, 2+ using 7ai%an as a for%ard fortress and fostering ne% alliances to contain China, inclusive 2alancing im'lies %or<ing %ith all the main 'la+ers of the #sian s+stem so that the multi'olar order im'oses sufficient costs to th%art militar+ adventurism" 7ranscending different 'olitical s+stems, inclusive 2alancing see<s to give each 'la+er the sco'e to develo', resist militar+ revisionism, address non-traditional threats, and 'rotect an o'en trade s+stem" 1nl+ such a 'osture %ill 'ermit 5ashington to foster trul+ strategic militar+ coo'eration %ith China and to avoid the high costs of traditional containment and confrontation %hile also reassuring its traditional allies"

H. The I of .China Threats/ reates ne! "oundaries that reify systems of domination 5illiam #" Callahan is 'rofessor of international 'olitics and China studies at the
!niversit+ of Hanchester and codirector of the British Inter-universit+ China Center, Revie% of International Studies F9%%5G, 31, /01O/14 doi(10"101/)S02C0210.0.00C/1C 9astl+, some China threat theory arti les go "eyond riti ising the ignorance and "ad intentions of the offending texts to conclude that those %ho 'romote China threat must 2e craD+( XThere is a onsensus %ithin mainland academic circles that there is hardly any reasona"le logi to explain the vie!s and pra ti es of the United States to!ard China in the 'ast fe% +ears" It can onl+ 2e summed u' in a %ord( XXHadnessBB B"4/ Indians li<e%ise are said to suffer from a XChina threat theor+ s+ndromeB"4A This "rings us "a , to Fou ault*s logi of Xrationality* "eing onstru ted through the ex lusion of a range of activities that are la2elled as XmadnessB. The rationality of the rise of China depends upon

distinguishing it from the madness of those !ho 6uestion it. 1i,e Jose'h 8+eBs on ern that !arnings of a China threat ould "e ome a self#fulfilling prophesy+ China threat theory texts vigorously reprodu e the dangers of the very threat they see, to deny. 'ather than adding to the de"ate+ they end up poli ing %hat Chinese and foreigners an rationally say.

1%. Alt doesn*t solve O 'ealism is true O China is a threat O the alt doesn*t vie! the !orld in this manner means China a tually first stri,e in the !orld of the aff "e ause !e aren*t prepared