Title: Jakarta Flood Hazard Mapping Framework Authors: Brinkman, JanJaap (Deltares) and Hartman, Mar o (H!

" onsultants) Mr# Brinkman is working in the $ield o$ water and $lood management in %ndonesia $or &' (ears and was team leader o$ this pro)e t# Mar o Hartman is an e*pert in +%, and water management, and has -een working in Jakarta sin e .//0# The authors work $or organizations that are at the $ore$ront o$ water management# Their up1to1 date knowledge o$ water management te hni2ues om-ined with their e*perien e in %ndonesia was ru ial in this pro)e t# Abstract 34er( (ear $loods o ur in Jakarta# 5idespread $looding o urred in .//6, &''& and &''0, inundating up to 7'8 o$ the it(# %n reasing population pressure and su-siden e (.' m9(ear or more) o$ areas alread( under M,: lead to an autonomous in rease o$ $lood risk# This paper des ri-es the work and on lusions $rom the Jakarta Flood Management ;ro)e t# The pro)e t de4eloped a Framework to $ind the de isi4e auses o$, and proper measures against $looding# Main on lusions are: (.) su essi4e rainstorm in Januar( and Fe-ruar( ause $loods in the Jakarta area, (&) high sea tides in om-ination with su-siden e ause $loods in the <orthern part o$ the it( and (=) insu$$i ient maintenan e o$ in$rastru ture aggra4ates the $loods# An alarming on lusion o$ the pro)e t is that with the )u*taposition o$ the high sea tides and the su-siden e rate, Jakarta heads towards disaster# >p to 7 million people and appro*imatel( &?8 o$ the it( will -e a$$e ted -( inundation $rom the sea within the ne*t .? (ears i$ no measures are taken# Background Jakarta, lo ated on the northwest oast o$ Ja4a, is the e onomi al, politi al and ultural apital o$ %ndonesia# The Metropolitan area, Ja-odeta-ek, is the 6th largest metropolitan area in the world with a little under &' million people# A-out / million people li4e in Jakarta itsel$, in an area o$ 66' km& (Forstall et al#, &''7)# .= @i4ers interse t the it(# The -iggest ri4er, the Ailiwung, $inds it origins ,outh o$ Jakarta, near the 4ol ano +unung +ede# Figure . shows the stud( area# %n some parts o$ Jakarta, $looding is a $a t o$ li4e# (sour e: 5HB, &''0) gi4es an o4er4iew o$ histori $loods# Ta-le .: histori $loods in Jakarta Year Effect .6// Ailiwung ri4er $loods old Bata4ia a$ter Mount ,alak erupts# .0.7 Ailiwung ri4er o4er$lows a$ter learing $orest areas in ;un ak# .C?7 <ew Bata4ia is a meter under water, aused -( the raging Ailiwung# ./.C 3*tensi4e $looding# The Dut h olonial go4ernment -egins work on the

Year ./7& .//6 &''&

Effect 5estern Flood Aanal (5est Ban)ir Aanal)# The 5est Ban)ir Aanal is ompleted, -ut Jakarta still $loods# A $lood sweeps through the apital# Appro*imatel( .' people die# The Dartmouth Flood B-ser4ator( notes it as the largest $lood in JakartaDs histor(, &? people died#

%n &''0 the greatest $lood in the last three enturies inundated a-out 7' 8 o$ the it(, killed C' people and $or ed a-out =7'#''' to $lee# The authorities asked the Dut h go4ernment $or help, in anal(zing the ause o$ the $lood and to assist in the preparation o$ non1stru tural measures# This paper des ri-es the Flood Hazard Mapping (FHM) part o$ the Dut h assistan e# The ultimate goal o$ the FHM team was to des ri-e the de isi4e auses o$ the $loods -( de4eloping a FHM Framework $or the Jakarta area# For a num-er o$ (ears, there was a lot o$ dis ussion on what ould -e the ause# %s it limate hangeE %s it su-siden eE Maintenan e o$ in$rastru tureE >r-anizationE @edu tion o$ areas with mangro4es, onstru tion o$ poldersE %n$ormal settlementsE High tidesE 34er( (ear during the rain( season, these dis ussions emerge a$ter a $lood hits the it(# As a result, it was di$$i ult $or the authorities to $o us on ertain issues to om-at the $lood# Figure .: ,tud( Area For the $irst time e4er the FHM Framework pro4ides a omprehensi4e model o$ the Jakarta area, with whi h the &''0 e4ent an -e simulated and whi h ena-les the assessment o$ s enarios# Description of the FHM Framework The FHM Framework onsists o$ = modules, $or rain$all1runo$$ (@@), $or h(drauli s (.D) and $or inundation al ulation (&D)# For @@, the area is split up in 7?' H(drologi al >nits# A H(drologi al >nit data-ase is set up, in whi h all a4aila-le data is stored and an -e 4isualized in Ar +%,# Data in lude area1ele4ation ur4es, population num-ers, su-siden e data, land1use hara teristi s and dis harge methods (pump or gra4it()# %$ hanges are known in the o4erall s(stem (e#g# retention is planned, or new land1use data -e omes a4aila-le) an

updated @@ model an -e prepared automati all(# The runo$$ is al ulated with the ,a ramento model# @ain$all is measured at &= stations in and around the at hment area# The H(drologi al >nits drain into ri4ers, whi h are modelled in a .D h(drauli ,o-ek Model# .= @i4ers, in total nearl( 6'' kilometres long, are in ludedF the geometr( is des ri-ed with a-out &='' ross1se tions# The most up1to1date ross se tions were used# @e ording dates $or these ross se tions 4aried -etween .//0 and &''6# %n addition, the design ross1se tions were stored in a data-ase# The third part o$ the Framework is the &D inundation model, whi h is used to simulate o4erland $low in ase the al ulated water le4els e* eed the ross se tion# For this purpose a D3M (Digital 3le4ation Model) was onstru ted using ontour lines with an inter4al o$ . meter and spot height measurements (a-out 0C''')# Measurements $or these were done in &''?# The D3M was prepared as a T%< (Triangular %rregular <etwork)# The &D module o$ ,BB3! was used $or these al ulations# Aali-ration o$ the model was done using measured water le4els at sele ted gauging stations in the s(stem, as well as on inundated areas# Aom-ining data $rom authorities on inundation and $rom e*tensi4e $ield 4isits the on lusion was that the Flood Hazard Mapping Framework pro4ided ade2uate results (>do et al#, &''0 and Hartman et al#, &''0)# .C 5ater le4el stations are situated in the at hment area# A $ield 4isit was made to all o$ them in order to assess the status o$ the stations and to propose possi-le impro4ements# The FHM Framework was used to determine the de isi4e auses $or $looding# Causes rainfall climate change The Ja-odeta-ek area has a wet season that runs appro*imatel( $rom De em-er till Ma(# Ma*imum rain$all amounts are generall( o-ser4ed in Januar( and Fe-ruar(, due to hea4( monsoon rain$all# Di$$eren es in rain$all 4olumes -etween the wet season and the dr( season are espe iall( noti ed in the northern part o$ the Ja-odeta-ek area# %n the southern part o$ the area orographi e$$e ts ause relati4el( high rain$all amounts, e4en in the Gdr( seasonH# The rain$all in the area is hara terized -( high intensit( short duration storms# 34en in the wet season, long dr( spells an o ur -etween storm e4ents# @ain$all is generall( on entrated in the a$ternoons and e4enings, with 6'81C'8 o$ the rain $alling -etween .7:'' and &.:'' (<3D3AB, ./0=)# The $lood o$ &''0 onsisted o$ two peak e4ents in the downstream Ailiwung# The $irst peak was aused -( one da( o$ hea4( rain$all in Jakarta, re orded on Fe-ruar( &# Howe4er, dail( 4alues are re orded at 0:'' in the morning# This means that a large proportion o$ the re orded rain$all on Fe-ruar( & a tuall( originate $rom Fe-ruar( .# As a result o$ the hea4( rain$all downstream, the peak water le4el in the Ailiwung at Manggarai rose to /#?. m (all water le4els are with respe t to lo al gauge datum) at

around /:'' in the morning o$ Fe-ruar( &# There was no $lood warning $rom upstream, -e ause the water le4el upstream in !atu :ampa and Depok was not alarming# Two da(s later, on Fe-ruar( 7, hea4( rain$all was re orded mainl( in the upstream lo ated stations# This time !atu :ampa issued a warning# @ain$all in Jakarta on Fe-ruar( 7 was not e*tremel( high, -ut the water oming $rom upstream aused e4en higher water le4els in the downstream Ailiwung than during the $irst peak $low (.'#6. m 4s# /#?. m)# The peak $low o$ the Ailiwung at Depok o urred on Fe-ruar( =, indi ating that most o$ the umulati4e rain$all in the upstream area that was re orded on Fe-ruar( 7 (at 0#'' in the morning) a tuall( $ell on Fe-ruar( =# The ma*imum water le4el in the Ailiwung ri4er at Depok was signi$i antl( higher than during the $lood e4ent o$ &''&: 7#/& m 4s# =#.' m# Downstream in the Ailiwung ri4er, at the Manggarai gate, the water le4el was a little higher than in &''&: .'#6. m 4ersus .'#?' m# Figure & shows the re orded rain$all on the &nd and 7th o$ Fe-ruar(#

Figure &: @ain$all e4ents Fe-ruar( &''0 The widespread $loods that o urred in .//6 o urred earl( Januar( as well as earl( Fe-ruar( (<3D3AB, .//0)# The &''& $lood e4ent o urred end o$ Januar( 9 earl( Fe-ruar( (<3D3AB, &''&)# %n all ases, se4eral su essi4e da(s o$ intense rain$all were re orded# :ong rain$all re ords were anal(zed to determine the possi-le impa t o$ limate hange# The onl( dataset a4aila-le $or this are the monthl( totals, whi h are re orded sin e .C6'# A trend anal(sis is presented in the $ollowing $igure# The trend line is horizontal, indi ating no lear trend# The mo4ing a4erage shows a distin ti4e peak in the ./0'Ds, -ut a$ter that period it $lu tuates around the a4erage#

The out ome o$ this anal(sis does not e* lude the possi-ilit( that limate hange has an e$$e t on rain$all in and around Jakarta, sin e it ould ha4e impa t on the intensit( o$ showers, or other hara teristi s# %t does show howe4er that statements a-out limate hange -eing the ause o$ the $loods pro-lems annot -e pro4en with the urrent a4aila-le data# Figure =: Trend anal(sis monthl( rain$all The $ollowing on lusions are drawn with respe t to h(drologi al and meteorologi al hara teristi s o$ the $looding in Jakarta: Flooding $rom hea4( rain mainl( o urs in Januar( or Fe-ruar(# Alear distin ti4e su essi4e rainstorms o$ten ause Jakarta $loods# 5et ante edent onditions add to the pro-lems# 3$$e ts o$ limate hange are not e4ident# Causes high tides subsidence The ma*imum tide le4els ha4e -een anal(sed, -ased on predi ted water le4els (Diermanse, &''0) o4ering a .''1(ear period (./&' to &'&')# For the predi tion o$ the tidal water le4el, the tidal onstituents $or Tan)ung ;riok, ha4e -een used# From this .''1(ear predi ted water le4el, the ma*imum spring tide le4els ha4e -een taken These are plotted in Figure 7#

Figure 7:

Ma*imum spring tide le4els at Tan)ung ;riok $rom ./&' to &'&' -ased on water le4el predi tions#

The ma*imum spring tide le4els in Figure 7 learl( show a periodi it( -etween .C and ./ (ears# This periodi it( is aused -( the $a t that the moonIs or-it around the earth is ellipti al# There$ore, the moon is ne4er at the same distan e $rom the earth $rom one month to the ne*t# %t takes .C#6 (ears $or this ( le to repeat# %t is lear that -etween &''? and &'.' this .C#6 (ears ( le rea hes a peak# From the anal(sis (Diermanse, &''0) it was on luded that during the &''0 $lood, the ma*imum tidal le4els were not e* eptionall( high# %t appears that during the &''0

$lood, the high waters were $ortunatel( not at the ma*imum o$ the o urring spring1 neap tide ( le# During the anal(sis o$ the tides, it -e ame apparent that the peak o$ the .C#6 (ears ( le o urs around &''0 9 &''C# From the FHM Framework a $ore ast was made that the end o$ <o4em-er &''0 the high tide will result in widespread $looding in <orth Jakarta# The $ore ast was spot on: a large part o$ the it( was $looded, while there was no rain at all, onl( a 4er( high tide (see Figure ? $or an impression, on the le$t side (ou see the sea de$en e wall)# The toll road, onne ting Jakarta with the %nternational Airport had to lose and numerous $lights were an elled# A-out .C (ears ago, nothing did happen due to the $a t that su-siden e was not an issue (et#

Figure ?: Flooding as a result $rom high tide, <o4em-er &''0, <orth Jakarta

Figure 6 shows the re orded su-siden e in Jakarta# %t is o-4ious that the $urther <orth, the larger the su-siden e is, up to .& m per (ear# ,u-siden e was not a dire t ause $or the &''0 $loods, -ut in reased the depth and duration on some areas#

Figure 6: @e orded su-siden e in Jakarta JHasanuddin K# A-idin, &''6L#

A worr(ing prospe t is that su-siden e is still ongoing and, a ording to re ent measurements, the rate in reases# Figure 0 pi tures the s enario $or Jakarta in &'&?, when a new peak o$ .C#6 (ears ( le will happen#
Nov 1989 Nov 2007 Nov 2025

Pasar Ikan cm

240 cm

215
190 cm

%ea #eve# Nov 26 $ritica# #eve# 2007

Nov 26, 2007 220

225

Climate change Sea level rise

Oct 29, 2007

18!6 "ear c"c#e

subsidence 140 cm

40-60 cm
subsidence

2025 80-100 cm increase 40-60 cm

Figure 0 Tides and su-siden e B4er the ne*t .C#6 (ears <orth Jakarta ontinues to su-side at least ?' m (whi h is still a onser4ati4e estimate)# During the $irst / (ears, $looding $rom the sea will ontinue on a regular -asis, -ut -e similar or less to the $loods o$ <o4em-er &''0# Then, $rom &'.6, Jakarta ontinues to go down, while the tide le4els rise again# B( &'&? ma*imum spring tide will rise at least C'1.'' m a-o4e the urrent sea de$en e, ausing disastrous $loods in <orth Jakarta# Apart $rom $looding, the e$$e ts o$ su-siden e will -e onsidera-le# :arge parts o$ Jakarta will $a e drainage pro-lems and more and -igger pumps are re2uired# +roundwater will -e ome more saline, su-se2uentl( ausing pro-lems $or the large num-er o$ households that depends on groundwater $or dail( water suppl(# @esear h is ongoing to $ind the de isi4e auses $or the su-siden e# %t is most likel( that groundwater e*tra tion is the main dri4ing $or e# @esear h is ongoing to assess how su-siden e ontinues in the $uture, and to $ore ast how long it will ontinue Aon lusions ,ea water le4els were not signi$i antl( high during the &''0 $lood e4ents and did not ontri-ute to the $lood# ,u-siden e (.) auses the Jakarta sea de$en e to sink -elow riti al le4els and (&) has ma)or impa t on the 2ualit( o$ li4e in the it(# From &'.6 $looding $rom the sea will o ur more o$ten, resulting into disastrous $loods in &'&?#

Causes ! maintenance The FHM Framework was set up with the most up1to1date dataset# @esults o$ the inundation pattern were similar as to what happened in &''0# Anal(ses were done to assess what would ha4e happened in ase regular maintenan e was arried out (i#e# in ase ross se tions are in a ordan e with the design)# The results are shown in Figure C# The (underl(ing) dark -lue shows the e*tent o$ the $lood in &''0, as al ulated -( the FHM $ramework# The lighter -lue shows the e*tent in ase the whole s(stem was in a ordan e with the design# %n &''0, the $loods a$$e ted the li4e o$ &#6 million people in Jakarta# %n ase all anals were in a ordan e with the original design, .#6 million people would ha4e -een a$$e ted# The on lusion is that a-out 7' 8 redu tion in $lood risk ould -e rea hed in ase maintenan e was arried out regularl(#

Figure C: Flood 3*tent Map $or &''0 and design ondition#

Measures The results o$ the FHM Framework triggered authorities to implement, or speed up implementation o$, measures to mitigate $looding in Jakarta, su h as: 1 Aonstru tion o$ a temporar( sea de$en e wall in <orth Jakarta# 1 ,peeded up onstru tion o$ the ele4ated toll road to the airport, in order to sa$eguard its a essi-ilit(# 1 ,tarting pilot pro)e ts to restore the anals to its original design and to show the possi-ilities o$ dredging in an ur-an en4ironment# The 5orld Bank laun hed the J3D% pro)e t: Jakarta 3mergen ( Dredging %nitiati4e# The pro)e t aims to restore the ma)orit( o$ JakartaDs anals to original design# "oad ahead Though the a ti4ities mentioned a-o4e will mitigate $looding $rom the sea in the short term and mitigate $loods as in &''0 on the longer term, the prospe t $or the northern part o$ Jakarta remains trou-lesome# Doing nothing is not an option# Fortunatel(, there is a growing awareness that a tions ha4e to -e taken# The FHM Framework is a uni2ue and omprehensi4e instrument to assess 4arious options su h

as large1s ale polder onstru tion in the <orth or the reation o$ an inner1lake )ust <orth o$ the it( in Jakarta Ba(# ,takeholders will -e hallenged to de ide a-out the $uture o$ the <orth Jakarta# "eferences Diermanse F#, &''0# H(drolog( M ,ea 5ater :e4el, FHM omponent# Forstall, @#:#, +reene, @#;# and ;i k, J#B# &''7# N5hi h are the largestE 5h( pu-lished populations $or ma)or world ur-an areas 4ar( so greatl(N# Hartman, M#, "een, <# &''0# Flood &''0: Flood e*tent M -ottlene ks, FHM Aomponent, H!" and 5: O Del$t H(drauli s# Hasanuddin K# A-idin# &''C# # G:and su-siden e Ahara teristi s o$ the Jakarta Basin as estimated $rom le4elling, +;, an %n,A@ and its 3n4ironmental %mpa ts# <ede o, ./0=: Masterplan $or drainage and $lood ontrol o$ Jakarta# <ede o, .//0: Jakarta $lood ontrol ad4isor( mission, main report, "olume ., Januar( .//0# <ede o, &''&: Pui k re onnaissan e stud( Ja-odeta-ek &''&, main report# >do, J#, "ers helling 3# &''0# H(drauli s, FHM Aomponent, 5: O Del$t H(drauli s and H!"# 5HB# &''0: Floods in Jakarta, Banten, and 5est Ja4a ;ro4in e, @epu-li o$ %ndonesia, 5orld health organization#